WEBVTT - The truth about Dutton’s nuclear costings 0:00:01.320 --> 0:00:03.800 From Schwartz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. 0:00:04.320 --> 0:00:12.560 This is seven am. The Liberal Party says it wants 0:00:12.600 --> 0:00:15.800 the next election to be a referendum on energy. After 0:00:15.880 --> 0:00:19.360 months of waiting, Opposition leader Peter Dutton finally released the 0:00:19.400 --> 0:00:23.360 cost of his nuclear proposal proof Dutton says that nuclear 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:27.000 power will be cheaper than renewables and save all Australians 0:00:27.080 --> 0:00:31.360 money on their energy bills, but his modeling stands in 0:00:31.440 --> 0:00:34.720 sharp contrast to that of Australia's top scientists and the 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:39.479 energy industry. Today National correspondent for the Saturday Paper like 0:00:39.640 --> 0:00:42.680 second on how the numbers stack up and whether that 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:51.879 matters to voters eager for lower power bills. It's Monday, 0:00:52.159 --> 0:01:05.240 December sixteenth, Mike. On Friday, Opposition leader Peter Dutton announced 0:01:05.280 --> 0:01:09.480 the long awaited costings for his party's nuclear policy plan. 0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:11.559 So tell me what he said. 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:14.720 Well, first observation about time. We've been waiting for this 0:01:14.720 --> 0:01:16.760 for months and months and months. You know it was 0:01:16.800 --> 0:01:20.280 all very optimistic modeling right. What happened was on Friday morning, 0:01:20.800 --> 0:01:24.080 Peter Dutton stood up at a press conference in Brisbane. 0:01:25.000 --> 0:01:27.639 Beside him were the Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor, the Shadow 0:01:27.680 --> 0:01:30.679 Climate Change and Energy Minister Tat O'Brian and the Leader 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:32.480 of the National stated little proud. 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:36.400 This is a plan which will underpin the economic success 0:01:36.520 --> 0:01:38.000 of out country for the next century. 0:01:38.880 --> 0:01:42.119 And they presented this final piece of the coalition's vision 0:01:42.200 --> 0:01:44.920 for a nuclear future. You know, the economic modeling that 0:01:44.959 --> 0:01:48.840 they claim shows that their policy is actually financially viable. 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:51.440 In fact, they argue that it will come in substantially 0:01:51.520 --> 0:01:53.400 cheaper than Labour's path to net zero. 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:57.600 This will make electricity reliable, it'll make it more consistent, 0:01:57.640 --> 0:02:01.560 it'll make it cheaper for Australia, and it will help 0:02:01.640 --> 0:02:05.400 us to carbonize as a trading economy as we must. So. 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:09.560 Under their plan, nuclear energy would account for about thirty 0:02:09.639 --> 0:02:12.760 eight percent of the Australian energy mix by twenty fifty, 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:14.880 which is when we're supposed to get to net zero. 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:18.040 Of course, renewables would cover fifty four percent and the 0:02:18.080 --> 0:02:21.120 rest of it, which about eight percent, would come mostly 0:02:21.120 --> 0:02:23.720 from gas and from a bit of storage. They had 0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:26.640 previously announced a plan to build seven nuclear reactors around 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:30.040 the country, which will be publicly owned. The first of 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:33.720 these reactors would be operating by twenty thirty five, or 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:36.960 they're about so ten or eleven years away, and according 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:40.400 to their modeling, their plan would cost three hundred and 0:02:40.440 --> 0:02:43.760 thirty one billion dollars over the twenty five years out 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:47.280 to twenty fifty. And that is two hundred and sixty 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:51.040 three billion dollars they claim, or forty four percent cheaper 0:02:51.080 --> 0:02:53.880 than their estimate. And it's important to say their estimate 0:02:54.320 --> 0:02:56.560 of what Labour's path to net zero would cost. 0:02:57.040 --> 0:03:00.760 That's around ten billion dollars every single year. 0:03:01.400 --> 0:03:04.639 And you know, the Shadow Energy Minister Tetobrand simply said 0:03:04.680 --> 0:03:08.600 that prices ultimately reflect costs over time, so you know 0:03:08.680 --> 0:03:10.800 their pitches. It will cost a great deal less to 0:03:10.800 --> 0:03:13.160 build a system and as a result, power will be 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:14.040 cheaper for everyone. 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:17.760 Right, okay, so tell me how Peter Dutton came to 0:03:17.840 --> 0:03:18.519 these figures. 0:03:18.760 --> 0:03:21.560 Well, it's down to economic modeling, of course, which you 0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:24.079 know it depends entirely on the assumptions you put into 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:26.520 the model, and this I have to say includes some 0:03:26.720 --> 0:03:32.679 rather dubious and occasionally troubling assumptions. For one, it's assumed 0:03:33.080 --> 0:03:36.040 that Australia's geriatric I think you could safely call them 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:40.400 very breakdown prone col fired power stations, most of which 0:03:40.560 --> 0:03:43.000 will be shuttered within a decade, and all of which 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:45.680 are currently scheduled to be closed by twenty thirty eight, 0:03:46.040 --> 0:03:48.880 will continue to operate for some years longer. It's not 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:51.600 entirely clear how many years longer, but somewhere in the 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:55.320 three to five years range. Another assumption is that they 0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:57.840 will get the first nuclear power station up and running 0:03:58.240 --> 0:04:01.040 eleven years from now, in twenty thirty six. They've also 0:04:01.120 --> 0:04:05.480 assumed that Australia's electricity demand will rise by considerably less 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:09.240 between now and twenty fifty than it is currently forecast too, 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:12.520 and in part that's based on things like they expect 0:04:12.560 --> 0:04:15.880 that Australia's uptake of electric vehicles will be much slower 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:19.680 than current forecasts. So all of these things indicate that 0:04:19.680 --> 0:04:21.880 we're going to continue to pump out greenhouse gases at 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:24.560 a greater rate than we would otherwise. The other big 0:04:24.640 --> 0:04:28.200 assumption is that nuclear generation will cost far less than 0:04:28.240 --> 0:04:31.840 the CSIRO and others say. Their other claim is that 0:04:31.880 --> 0:04:37.159 there will be savings from not building unnecessary infrastructure, by 0:04:37.160 --> 0:04:39.880 which they mean mostly transmission. So they're saying that they 0:04:39.920 --> 0:04:43.120 will be able to plug nuclear power stations into already 0:04:43.160 --> 0:04:47.120 existing transmission lines rather than having to build new transmission, 0:04:47.240 --> 0:04:49.480 as is the case with renewables, which tend to be 0:04:49.640 --> 0:04:52.760 located in sunny end windy places away from a lot 0:04:52.760 --> 0:04:57.919 of infrastructure. So all of this is based on modeling 0:04:57.960 --> 0:05:01.760 from this bunch of climate consultants called Frontier Economics, which 0:05:01.800 --> 0:05:03.760 is run by a guy called Danny Price. 0:05:04.400 --> 0:05:06.040 Right, and who is Danny Price. 0:05:06.640 --> 0:05:11.960 Well, he's an energy economist and a consultant and he's 0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:13.880 worked for both sides of politics. He actually has a 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:16.039 pretty strong track record, I have to say, you know, 0:05:16.080 --> 0:05:19.080 he's worked for Labor as well as the Coalition, most recently, 0:05:19.120 --> 0:05:22.640 I believe for the Labor government South Australia. The other 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:26.479 thing that is notable about Danny Price is that he 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:28.839 seems to have fallen out with just about anyone who's 0:05:28.920 --> 0:05:32.040 anyone in the energy space. You know, the former Chief 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:36.719 Scientist Alan Finkel, former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, the former 0:05:36.760 --> 0:05:40.560 head of the Australian Energy Market operator Ordrew Zibelman. He 0:05:40.600 --> 0:05:43.559 said that her agency should simply be abolished. I actually 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:46.599 spoke to Price last week and he expected that he 0:05:46.600 --> 0:05:49.839 would be criticized for this. He wears it as a 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:51.960 badge of pride. Quite frankly, he's always up for a 0:05:51.960 --> 0:05:55.599 stoush and like I said, the view of various policy 0:05:55.760 --> 0:05:57.359 experts that I spoke to was that he was a 0:05:57.360 --> 0:06:01.320 competent economist, but also someone with very st opinions and 0:06:01.400 --> 0:06:06.360 a tendency to respond forcefully to those with whom he disagrees. 0:06:06.880 --> 0:06:08.760 And the other thing to say about him is that 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:11.159 he has a way of getting headlines for the work 0:06:11.160 --> 0:06:14.560 he producers. For example, he came up with a figure 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:21.120 for costing the current government's renewables plan that was five 0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:24.839 hundred billion dollars higher than the Australian Energy Market Operator 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:29.280 estimates it will cost. Bottom line, his modeling is not 0:06:29.279 --> 0:06:32.880 without controversy, and it also stands in pretty stark contrast 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:35.120 to the work of a lot of other experts and 0:06:35.240 --> 0:06:39.039 agencies like the CSIO. It would suggest, you know, he's 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:41.440 a bit outside the mainstream in his views and perhaps 0:06:41.480 --> 0:06:43.159 a bit of a contrarian. 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:50.880 After the break the science that contradicts the coalition's claims, 0:06:58.080 --> 0:06:58.520 so Mike. 0:06:58.680 --> 0:07:00.440 On Friday, the coal. 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:03.520 Released its numbers for its nuclear policy, and that was 0:07:03.560 --> 0:07:08.359 based on this modeling from Frontier Economics run by Danny Price. 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:12.280 Around the same time, though the CSIRO actually also released 0:07:12.280 --> 0:07:14.040 a report into nuclear power. 0:07:14.200 --> 0:07:16.280 So how did the two compare. 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:21.880 The CSIRO, Australia's premiere scientific organization in association with the 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:26.520 Australian Energy market operator and stakeholders in the energy business, 0:07:27.080 --> 0:07:30.760 dropped their latest annual gen Cost Report, which sets out 0:07:30.800 --> 0:07:32.960 to work out the relative costs of different ways of 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:34.040 generating electricity. 0:07:34.160 --> 0:07:37.000 Say, the CSIRO has found once again that nuclear power 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:40.560 is about fifty percent more expensive than renewables, so, in 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:43.080 other words, would cost twice as much to build. 0:07:43.320 --> 0:07:47.400 And what the CSIRO report found again for the seventh 0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:50.800 year in a row, was that my father the lowest 0:07:50.800 --> 0:07:55.200 cost means of generating electricity was renewables, wind and solar, 0:07:55.240 --> 0:07:57.880 even when you include you know, firming with batteries and 0:07:57.880 --> 0:08:00.720 all the rest of it. Not only a renew's cheaper, 0:08:00.760 --> 0:08:04.400 but they're continue to get cheaper. So large scale solar 0:08:04.640 --> 0:08:07.600 and battery storage are two areas with huge price drops. 0:08:08.240 --> 0:08:11.880 Solar has dropped eight percent in the past year, and 0:08:11.920 --> 0:08:14.720 it dropped eight percent in the year before that. Battery 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:18.280 storage dropped twenty percent in the past year alone, so 0:08:18.560 --> 0:08:22.560 the alternatives to nuclear coming down dramatically in price. The 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:24.640 other thing about gen cost is of course that it 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:27.520 reckons that we can't build nuclear in the timeframes that 0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:30.600 Danny Price and the opposition are suggesting. It's saying at 0:08:30.720 --> 0:08:34.360 least fifteen years away. And the problem with that, of course, 0:08:34.440 --> 0:08:37.440 is that coal power is scheduled to be shut down 0:08:38.520 --> 0:08:42.440 within less time than that, so in the meantime we 0:08:42.480 --> 0:08:45.520 will extend the life of coal. But the coalition also 0:08:45.559 --> 0:08:48.800 says that we will rely more heavily on gas generation 0:08:49.440 --> 0:08:52.600 while we wait for nuclear, and gen cost says that 0:08:52.960 --> 0:08:57.000 gas generation is if you include carbon capture and storage, 0:08:57.000 --> 0:08:58.600 which would be necessary if for we're to make it 0:08:59.280 --> 0:09:03.040 carbon neutral, would be around the same cost as nuclear. 0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:07.480 So there's pretty big differences there, I think you'd say, 0:09:07.520 --> 0:09:10.079 between what gen costs and the CSRO are telling us 0:09:10.640 --> 0:09:12.600 and what the opposition modeling is telling us. 0:09:13.120 --> 0:09:16.480 And so how is Peter Dutton responding to criticism of 0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:20.400 his nuclear plan and the reports that contradict his costings. 0:09:20.760 --> 0:09:24.280 Well, I wouldn't say that Sarah was specifically criticizing his 0:09:24.440 --> 0:09:27.240 nuclear plan, but you're right, they come up with vastly 0:09:27.280 --> 0:09:31.679 different costs, and really Dartnes's response was simply to shoot 0:09:31.679 --> 0:09:32.200 the messenger. 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:35.120 It just looks to me like there's a heavy hand 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:37.880 of Chris Bowen in all of this, and I don't 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:40.480 think people want to see that. I think what they 0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:42.079 know from Chris Bowen at the moment is that he's 0:09:42.080 --> 0:09:45.120 wrecking the energy system and that's wrecking the economy. 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:47.600 He immediately came out and said that the government had 0:09:47.640 --> 0:09:51.080 meddled and that CSRO was not politically independent and that 0:09:51.200 --> 0:09:53.920 Chris bow and the Energy Minister essentially had his thumb 0:09:53.960 --> 0:09:54.640 on the scales. 0:09:54.760 --> 0:09:57.320 Peter dunt't wants you to believe that he can introduce 0:09:57.360 --> 0:10:01.200 the most expensive form of energy and somehow that will 0:10:01.200 --> 0:10:06.280 reduce power prices. A EMO and the CSIRO say nuclear 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:07.160 is expensive. 0:10:07.559 --> 0:10:11.360 And Chris Bowen, in contrast, came out and said that 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:16.000 Danny Price was a Liberal party operative and that his 0:10:16.640 --> 0:10:18.600 modeling was also politicized. 0:10:18.760 --> 0:10:22.080 The choice between Peter Dutton and the CSIRO, I go 0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:22.960 with the CSIRO. 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:29.120 So we've got both sides attacking the impartiality of the 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:32.440 experts that the other side is relying upon. The real 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:35.320 test here is probably whether whether it matters to voters 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:37.240 and whom the voters decide to believe. 0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:38.640 So what do you. 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:41.800 Think that voters will make of Peter Dutton's plan, Mike, 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:44.439 Because you know, he said that he wants this coming 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:48.480 election to be a referendum on energy. So do you 0:10:48.559 --> 0:10:52.320 think that voters are going to support this particular vision. 0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:57.840 Look, frankly, I have no idea. I think voters are 0:10:57.840 --> 0:11:01.080 mostly concerned with cost of living, and so Peter Dutton 0:11:01.080 --> 0:11:03.200 has pitched this very much as the cost of living measure. 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:05.520 We'll have to wait. I mean, they have dropped this 0:11:05.640 --> 0:11:09.320 enormous report from Danny Price. It's just dazzled you with 0:11:09.559 --> 0:11:14.880 economic jargon and numbers and calculations. I can only assume 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:17.240 that every other economic modeler in the country is now 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:19.560 going through it with a fine tooth comb, and we'll 0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:22.439 see how it holds up. I have to say previous 0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:27.120 modeling done for previous iterations of Coalition climate policy, not 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:29.439 done by Danny Price, but done by other people engaged 0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:32.520 by them, have not held up well in retrospect, and 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:34.480 nor for that matter, has some of the modeling that 0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:37.280 was done by labor You'll remember that Labour Right relied 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:41.520 on economic modeling to say that power prices would decrease 0:11:41.760 --> 0:11:44.560 under them, and they haven't. They've gone up. So you know, 0:11:44.640 --> 0:11:47.440 modeling is very vulnerable to the assumptions that go into it, 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:50.760 and it's also vulnerable to changes in circumstance. I mean, 0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:53.840 in the case of Labour's modeling, the change in circumstances 0:11:53.840 --> 0:11:56.160 was the Ukraine War that drove up power prices all 0:11:56.200 --> 0:12:00.000 around the world. So we're talking about something that has 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:03.800 to foresee what might happen over the next twenty five years. 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:05.760 And that's a very hard ask. 0:12:06.800 --> 0:12:09.120 And as you say, Mike, so much of the messaging 0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:13.120 around this energy plan is about cost, and you can 0:12:13.120 --> 0:12:16.160 see why, but or what about the climate crisis? What 0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:20.679 does Peter Dutton's plan mean for emissions compared to Labors. 0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:23.160 Well, I think in a nutshell, what the opposition is 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:27.680 saying is, Okay, we will run more coal for longer, 0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:30.720 we will run more gas for longer, and then in 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:33.640 due course, somewhere down the track they will come in 0:12:33.679 --> 0:12:35.800 with all this nuclear that will get us to net 0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:38.880 zero BO twenty fifty. Frankly, the thing that matters here 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:41.679 is our overall emissions, what they call the carbon budget. 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:44.599 And I haven't done the calculations, but it's hard to 0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:46.320 see how this will not put a big hole in 0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:50.640 our carbon budget. The other thing is there's a political 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:53.200 consideration here. Of course, for Dutton and the Opposition, which 0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:55.440 is that there are still within the ranks of the 0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:58.280 coalition parties, particularly in the National Party, a bunch of 0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:00.760 people who don't even believe that climate is a thing. 0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:04.240 And there's a bunch more who are very reluctant to 0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:07.400 take the kinds of steps that are necessary. So as 0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:09.719 far as the politics of it is concerned, this is 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:12.840 a very convenient thing for Peter Dutton because for those 0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:17.080 inner city liberals who realize their constituencies want something serious 0:13:17.120 --> 0:13:20.120 done about climate change, well they can say we will, 0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:23.120 but it will take a little while. And for those 0:13:23.240 --> 0:13:26.600 Nationals in the regions and others, they will say, yeah, well, 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:28.880 you know, we've kicked the can down the road by 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:31.320 ten or fifteen years and they can give a wink 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:33.880 and not to their constituents. So it's a very neat 0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:37.280 political way of papering over divisions within the coalition and 0:13:37.320 --> 0:13:40.600 I think to a substantial extent that was always its intent. 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:45.920 Mike, Thank you so much for your time. 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:47.280 Thank you for yours. 0:14:00.640 --> 0:14:03.160 Also in the news today, a severe heat wave is 0:14:03.200 --> 0:14:05.959 set to continue across much of Australia until the middle 0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:08.840 of the week, with the Bureau of Meteorology issuing heat 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:11.640 wave warnings for all states and territories on the mainland. 0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:15.040 The heat wave will hit Victoria and New South Wales today, 0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:20.240 where some inland areas may exceed forty five degrees and 0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:23.480 Kevin Andrews is being remembered as a Conservative warrior and 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:27.120 loyal colleague after he died on Friday following a year 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:31.000 long battle with cancer. MPs across the political spectrum have 0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:34.320 shared statements of condolences for Andrews, who represented the seat 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:37.400 of Mensies in Melbourne for over three decades and served 0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:41.479 at various times as Minister for Defense, Social Services, Immigration 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:45.800 and Workplace Relations. Hen Ruby Jones, this is seven am. 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:46.640 It's hee tomorrow