WEBVTT - Trump’s nuclear arms race

0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:10.239
<v Speaker 1>I'm Ruby Jones and you're listening to seven AM. Last week,

0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:14.040
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump instructed the US military to start testing nuclear

0:00:14.080 --> 0:00:18.480
<v Speaker 1>weapons immediately. It was a startling order, one that breaks

0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:22.280
<v Speaker 1>with more than three decades of protocol for the US, justified,

0:00:22.360 --> 0:00:25.640
<v Speaker 1>according to the President, by the actions of Russia and China,

0:00:26.600 --> 0:00:30.240
<v Speaker 1>and as these nuclear armed powers race to expand their arsenals,

0:00:30.720 --> 0:00:35.440
<v Speaker 1>other countries closer to Australia are considering joining them. Today,

0:00:35.600 --> 0:00:38.080
<v Speaker 1>Professor of Strategic Studies at the A and U and

0:00:38.240 --> 0:00:42.320
<v Speaker 1>contributor to Australian Foreign Affairs Brendan Taylor on what Trump's

0:00:42.400 --> 0:00:45.080
<v Speaker 1>order will mean for the nuclear arms race and what

0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:55.440
<v Speaker 1>will happen if our neighbors go nuclear. It's Thursday, November six,

0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:04.480
<v Speaker 1>so Brendan. Donald Trump recently said the Department of War

0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:08.480
<v Speaker 1>in the US should start testing nuclear weapons, and he

0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:11.440
<v Speaker 1>said that was because of China and Russia's recent actions.

0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:14.400
<v Speaker 1>So to begin with, tell me what China and Russia

0:01:14.560 --> 0:01:15.560
<v Speaker 1>have been doing. Well.

0:01:15.680 --> 0:01:18.759
<v Speaker 2>China and Russia been pretty busy in the nuclear space

0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:21.680
<v Speaker 2>of late, especially within the last week.

0:01:24.360 --> 0:01:28.640
<v Speaker 3>Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent comments has once again turned

0:01:28.720 --> 0:01:33.399
<v Speaker 3>the world's attention towards Moscow. Speaking to reporters, he announced

0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:37.360
<v Speaker 3>that Russia is developing and testing new generation strategic weapons.

0:01:37.480 --> 0:01:41.520
<v Speaker 2>Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, announced that Russia had tested

0:01:41.800 --> 0:01:46.920
<v Speaker 2>two nuclear powered platforms. One was a nuclear powered cruise missile.

0:01:48.320 --> 0:01:52.760
<v Speaker 4>Moscow says the Budivesnik winged missile has global reach and

0:01:52.840 --> 0:01:55.280
<v Speaker 4>can stay in the air for hours thanks to a

0:01:55.400 --> 0:01:56.800
<v Speaker 4>nuclear powered engine.

0:01:57.120 --> 0:02:01.120
<v Speaker 2>And the second was a nuclear powered torpee called the Poseidon.

0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:05.240
<v Speaker 5>Russia has conducted a test of a new nuclear powered

0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:10.920
<v Speaker 5>and nuclear capable underwater drone known as Poseidon. Putin described

0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:14.120
<v Speaker 5>it as a new weapon which cannot be intercepted.

0:02:14.800 --> 0:02:18.640
<v Speaker 2>Putin has been talking about since about twenty eighteen a

0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:21.280
<v Speaker 2>new suite of what he calls super weapons that the

0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:23.240
<v Speaker 2>Russians have been developing. That this is kind of the

0:02:23.240 --> 0:02:28.760
<v Speaker 2>first indication that these have actually been tested. The Chinese

0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:31.960
<v Speaker 2>have also been busy. They too have been testing new

0:02:32.080 --> 0:02:36.240
<v Speaker 2>and somewhat exotic weapon systems. Back in twenty twenty one,

0:02:36.280 --> 0:02:39.120
<v Speaker 2>they tested and what they call a new FOB system.

0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:43.160
<v Speaker 2>That's an acronym that stands for fractional orbital Bombardment system.

0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:46.200
<v Speaker 2>This is a missile that essentially went into a lower

0:02:46.280 --> 0:02:48.320
<v Speaker 2>orbit and flew all away around the.

0:02:48.240 --> 0:02:51.480
<v Speaker 4>World, sending it into space and around the planet before

0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:54.520
<v Speaker 4>it landed just twenty five miles away from its intended target.

0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:58.000
<v Speaker 4>Hypersonic glide weapons can fly five times the speed of

0:02:58.080 --> 0:03:00.600
<v Speaker 4>sound and lower than conventional weapons.

0:03:00.639 --> 0:03:03.640
<v Speaker 1>The US does not currently have the ability to even

0:03:03.800 --> 0:03:05.880
<v Speaker 1>track this weapon, much less defeated.

0:03:05.960 --> 0:03:09.440
<v Speaker 2>It's significant because it gives China the capacity to potentially

0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:13.520
<v Speaker 2>evade US missile defense systems. But the big news story

0:03:13.840 --> 0:03:16.600
<v Speaker 2>from the Chinese side has not necessarily just been those

0:03:16.639 --> 0:03:19.960
<v Speaker 2>new systems it's been delivering. It's been the alarming rate

0:03:20.000 --> 0:03:24.200
<v Speaker 2>at which its nuclear arsenal has been expanding. China traditionally

0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:27.240
<v Speaker 2>has had a very small nuclear arsenal consisting of about

0:03:27.280 --> 0:03:30.080
<v Speaker 2>two to three hundred warheads. Over the last five years

0:03:30.120 --> 0:03:32.600
<v Speaker 2>or so, it's more than double the size of that arsenal.

0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:35.480
<v Speaker 2>So today we think that China has about seven hundred

0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:39.440
<v Speaker 2>warheads in this arsenal. The Pentagon estimates that by twenty

0:03:39.480 --> 0:03:42.360
<v Speaker 2>thirty that number could have increased to one thousand, and

0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:45.360
<v Speaker 2>there are even some suggestions that by twenty thirty five

0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:48.920
<v Speaker 2>the arsenal could have increased again to around about one thousand,

0:03:48.960 --> 0:03:50.000
<v Speaker 2>five hundred warheads.

0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:55.080
<v Speaker 1>Wow, Okay, so how does that compare China and Russia's

0:03:55.120 --> 0:03:58.160
<v Speaker 1>capability is, how does that compare with the US It's

0:03:58.280 --> 0:04:00.240
<v Speaker 1>nuclear capacity at the moment, Well.

0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:05.160
<v Speaker 2>The United States has a fairly similar sized arsenal to

0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:09.000
<v Speaker 2>the Russians. The US has about one thousand, seven hundred

0:04:09.200 --> 0:04:12.360
<v Speaker 2>deployed nuclear weapons. That's about the same number as the Russians.

0:04:13.000 --> 0:04:16.599
<v Speaker 2>I've actually deployed nuclear weapons. And then the Americans have

0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:20.760
<v Speaker 2>about another two thousand warheads that are put in storage.

0:04:21.040 --> 0:04:24.640
<v Speaker 2>The Russian arsenal is, contrary to what mister Trump told

0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:27.480
<v Speaker 2>us last week, is actually slightly bigger than the American one.

0:04:27.480 --> 0:04:29.600
<v Speaker 2>The Russians have got about two and a half thousand

0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:33.560
<v Speaker 2>warheads in storage. So certainly those two arsenals are the

0:04:33.560 --> 0:04:36.480
<v Speaker 2>biggest in the world by quite a margin, much larger

0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:40.360
<v Speaker 2>than China's nuclear arsenal around seven hundred warheads.

0:04:40.480 --> 0:04:42.760
<v Speaker 1>Okay, am, we're talking about the big superpowers here, the

0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:45.400
<v Speaker 1>big players. But could you maybe just put this in

0:04:45.440 --> 0:04:48.960
<v Speaker 1>a global context for me? Which other countries have nuclear

0:04:49.000 --> 0:04:51.839
<v Speaker 1>weapons and who is considering getting them?

0:04:52.000 --> 0:04:54.400
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so there's six other countries in the world that

0:04:54.440 --> 0:04:57.640
<v Speaker 2>we know have nuclear weapons at the moment, the British

0:04:57.640 --> 0:05:00.839
<v Speaker 2>and the French both have nuclear weapons, the Indians and

0:05:00.880 --> 0:05:04.880
<v Speaker 2>the Pakistanis, and then the Israelis almost certainly have nuclear weapons,

0:05:04.880 --> 0:05:08.040
<v Speaker 2>and the North Koreans we know definitely have nuclear weapons.

0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:11.679
<v Speaker 2>The arsenals of all of those countries are much smaller

0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:15.360
<v Speaker 2>than the superpowers. The British and French. There arsenals are

0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:17.280
<v Speaker 2>in the range of the low hundreds, as are the

0:05:17.279 --> 0:05:21.560
<v Speaker 2>Indians and Pakistanis. The Israelis have around about ninety warheads,

0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:23.800
<v Speaker 2>we think, and the North Koreans it's a bit hard

0:05:23.800 --> 0:05:27.000
<v Speaker 2>to tell because there's such a closed society, but we

0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:30.000
<v Speaker 2>think they have around about fifty warheads with enough plutonium

0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:32.520
<v Speaker 2>to be able to manufacture up to ninety as well.

0:05:32.680 --> 0:05:36.800
<v Speaker 1>Okay, and the US hasn't done any nuclear testing for

0:05:36.880 --> 0:05:41.719
<v Speaker 1>more than three decades now, So if that changes, what

0:05:41.800 --> 0:05:44.359
<v Speaker 1>does that actually look like within the US on a

0:05:44.360 --> 0:05:45.560
<v Speaker 1>practical level, A.

0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:48.919
<v Speaker 2>Lot depends upon what mister Trump actually meant when he

0:05:48.920 --> 0:05:51.760
<v Speaker 2>said that the US was going to resume nuclear testing,

0:05:52.080 --> 0:05:56.600
<v Speaker 2>talking about literally presuming underground nuclear detonation tests.

0:05:56.760 --> 0:05:58.440
<v Speaker 1>You'll find out very soon, but we're going to do

0:05:58.480 --> 0:06:00.440
<v Speaker 1>some plastic Yeah, other countries do it.

0:06:00.640 --> 0:06:01.920
<v Speaker 2>If they're going to do it, we're going to do

0:06:01.960 --> 0:06:05.200
<v Speaker 2>It's unlikely that P's suggesting a kind of a return

0:06:05.279 --> 0:06:07.599
<v Speaker 2>to the kind of mushroom clouds out in the desert

0:06:07.600 --> 0:06:10.600
<v Speaker 2>of the types of tests that we saw during the

0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:12.960
<v Speaker 2>Cold War. And intact, one of the things that it's

0:06:12.960 --> 0:06:15.880
<v Speaker 2>important to recognize about nuclear testing is it has changed

0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:18.520
<v Speaker 2>a lot. Unlike during the Cold War when those tests

0:06:18.520 --> 0:06:21.360
<v Speaker 2>had to be conducted in the atmosphere, or after the

0:06:21.440 --> 0:06:24.120
<v Speaker 2>nineteen sixties when that kind of testing was banned, when

0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:28.400
<v Speaker 2>it tended to be conducted underground. Today countries are able

0:06:28.440 --> 0:06:32.160
<v Speaker 2>to use supercomputers and other forms of high energy lasers

0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:34.440
<v Speaker 2>to test the nuclear weapons, or at least to simulate

0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:37.640
<v Speaker 2>what a nuclear explosion would look like. So even though

0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:40.159
<v Speaker 2>there hasn't been testing in the United States for thirty years,

0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:42.800
<v Speaker 2>it's kind of amazing to think that the US actually

0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:45.760
<v Speaker 2>knows a lot more about how its nuclear weapons are

0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:48.039
<v Speaker 2>likely to perform than whilst the case during the Cold

0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:51.480
<v Speaker 2>War because of these technological advances that have been made.

0:06:51.920 --> 0:06:54.560
<v Speaker 1>And how controversial would it be to restart testing.

0:06:54.800 --> 0:06:56.640
<v Speaker 2>I mean, once again, I think it depends upon the

0:06:57.279 --> 0:06:59.640
<v Speaker 2>types of tests. I think if we were it's very

0:06:59.720 --> 0:07:01.680
<v Speaker 2>unlike but if we were to see a return to

0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:04.600
<v Speaker 2>even those sorts of underground tests. I think it would

0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:08.520
<v Speaker 2>be an incredibly controversial step to go down that particular path.

0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:11.520
<v Speaker 2>In fact, I think it would be a great disadvantage

0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:15.000
<v Speaker 2>to the United States to start testing nuclear weapons again

0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:17.600
<v Speaker 2>in the way that it has previously, partly because it

0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:20.080
<v Speaker 2>has so much more data than any other country in

0:07:20.120 --> 0:07:23.000
<v Speaker 2>the world. The US historically has conducted more than a

0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:26.920
<v Speaker 2>thousand nuclear tests already. The Russians have done about nine hundred,

0:07:27.120 --> 0:07:29.840
<v Speaker 2>the Chinese have only done about forty five, so they

0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:32.600
<v Speaker 2>actually don't have much access to data at all. So

0:07:32.640 --> 0:07:34.960
<v Speaker 2>it would not only be a controversial step to start

0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:38.240
<v Speaker 2>testing again in the United States, but I think the

0:07:38.320 --> 0:07:41.160
<v Speaker 2>US would end up losing ground because it would potentially

0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:44.080
<v Speaker 2>allow or give an excuse for the Russians and the

0:07:44.120 --> 0:07:46.520
<v Speaker 2>Chinese in particular, to start testing again and give them

0:07:46.520 --> 0:07:48.800
<v Speaker 2>access to data that they just don't have at present.

0:07:49.600 --> 0:07:52.320
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean, Trump is saying that the rationale for

0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:55.920
<v Speaker 1>this is because of what countries like Russia and China

0:07:56.000 --> 0:07:59.120
<v Speaker 1>are doing. But that's how an arms race begins, isn't it,

0:07:59.160 --> 0:08:02.320
<v Speaker 1>Because then Russia and China have a reason to go

0:08:02.440 --> 0:08:05.720
<v Speaker 1>even harder on their end. So what's the risk here

0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:06.560
<v Speaker 1>of this escalating.

0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:09.920
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I think unfortunately we're already in the beginning

0:08:09.920 --> 0:08:12.280
<v Speaker 2>stages of an arms race. I mean that's really been

0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:15.120
<v Speaker 2>the whole story of the nuclear age, and certainly during

0:08:15.160 --> 0:08:18.840
<v Speaker 2>the Cold War, whenever one country did something, there was

0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:22.320
<v Speaker 2>almost an automatic tendency for another country to react, and

0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:24.120
<v Speaker 2>you had this back and forth, this kind of action

0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:29.760
<v Speaker 2>reaction dynamic going on. I think that we're in the

0:08:29.800 --> 0:08:32.960
<v Speaker 2>beginning stages of that once again. But what really worries

0:08:33.040 --> 0:08:34.840
<v Speaker 2>me is I don't think this arms race is one

0:08:34.880 --> 0:08:37.320
<v Speaker 2>that is limited or is going to be limited just

0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:40.160
<v Speaker 2>to the United States and China and Russia. I think

0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:42.440
<v Speaker 2>it's an arms race that is also going to draw

0:08:42.480 --> 0:08:46.640
<v Speaker 2>in other powers as well, and most worryingly from Australia,

0:08:46.679 --> 0:08:48.920
<v Speaker 2>I think those powers are going to be within our

0:08:48.960 --> 0:08:52.080
<v Speaker 2>own region. I think this arms race is going to

0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:53.400
<v Speaker 2>be a lot more uneven. You're going to have a

0:08:53.440 --> 0:08:57.280
<v Speaker 2>lot more players with arsenals of different shapes and sizes

0:08:57.280 --> 0:08:59.360
<v Speaker 2>and levels of capability, and that's going to be an

0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:01.440
<v Speaker 2>arms race. I think it's going to be much more

0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:04.120
<v Speaker 2>difficult to manage, and there's also going to be more

0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:10.000
<v Speaker 2>prone to accident talk or inadvertent escalations and misperceptions and miscalculations.

0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:14.600
<v Speaker 1>Coming up the nuclear arms race, we could face much

0:09:14.679 --> 0:09:28.880
<v Speaker 1>closer to home. So Brendan, how likely is it that

0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:31.560
<v Speaker 1>countries in our region are going to be drawn into

0:09:31.559 --> 0:09:32.680
<v Speaker 1>the nuclear arms race?

0:09:33.240 --> 0:09:35.439
<v Speaker 2>I think that's a really good question. And I don't

0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:37.400
<v Speaker 2>think we're going to wake up tomorrow and find out

0:09:37.440 --> 0:09:40.920
<v Speaker 2>that South Korea or Japan has surprisingly gone nuclear. But

0:09:41.000 --> 0:09:43.920
<v Speaker 2>I'd say over the next one to two decades there's

0:09:43.960 --> 0:09:46.160
<v Speaker 2>a much higher chance than not that countries in our

0:09:46.200 --> 0:09:49.760
<v Speaker 2>region will go nuclear. Certainly, in the case of some

0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:53.240
<v Speaker 2>countries such as Japan, they have the technological capability to

0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:57.080
<v Speaker 2>go nuclear relatively quickly. I think for Japan, the big

0:09:57.120 --> 0:10:02.640
<v Speaker 2>constraints the domestic political constraints understandable reasons, because Japan has

0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:05.520
<v Speaker 2>been the only country thus farther has been subjected to

0:10:05.559 --> 0:10:10.160
<v Speaker 2>a nuclear attack when the US bomb Hiroshimar Nakasaki at

0:10:10.160 --> 0:10:12.040
<v Speaker 2>the end of the Second World War. There's still very

0:10:12.040 --> 0:10:17.120
<v Speaker 2>strong domestic political opposition to Japan acquiring a nuclear weapons capability.

0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:19.880
<v Speaker 2>But I think it's a very different case in South

0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:22.960
<v Speaker 2>Korea and looking across the border into North Korea and

0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:26.680
<v Speaker 2>seeing North Korea building up its nuclear arsenal, but also

0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:29.320
<v Speaker 2>keeping in mind the neighborhood that South Korea lives in,

0:10:29.679 --> 0:10:32.720
<v Speaker 2>with the China that's building up its arsenal, with Russia

0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:35.480
<v Speaker 2>the world's largest nuclear power, it's easy to kind of

0:10:35.559 --> 0:10:39.160
<v Speaker 2>understand why the South Koreans might be thinking about moving

0:10:39.200 --> 0:10:43.559
<v Speaker 2>that direction, particularly given concerns about whether the US, particularly

0:10:43.880 --> 0:10:47.160
<v Speaker 2>a US that's adopted a very American first kind of

0:10:47.200 --> 0:10:50.280
<v Speaker 2>mindset as the current Trump administration has, whether it will

0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:52.559
<v Speaker 2>come to South Korea's defense, whether it will be willing

0:10:52.640 --> 0:10:56.080
<v Speaker 2>to sacrifice a major US city to defend Soul, for instance.

0:10:56.559 --> 0:10:59.480
<v Speaker 2>I think that's likely to push South Korea in that direction.

0:11:00.200 --> 0:11:02.760
<v Speaker 1>And so what does all of this mean for Australia

0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:07.400
<v Speaker 1>Because we signed the Nuclear non Proliferation Treaty in the seventies,

0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:10.520
<v Speaker 1>but you know that was fifty years ago now and

0:11:10.600 --> 0:11:13.240
<v Speaker 1>the world has changed a lot, and from what you're saying,

0:11:13.440 --> 0:11:16.760
<v Speaker 1>stands to change a lot more dramatically right now. So

0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:18.000
<v Speaker 1>where does that leave us?

0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:21.440
<v Speaker 2>Well, I think it's going to cause some real dilemmas

0:11:21.440 --> 0:11:23.480
<v Speaker 2>for Australia, and I'm not sure that we've really begun

0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:26.480
<v Speaker 2>to think through these dilemmas as far or as fast

0:11:26.520 --> 0:11:29.000
<v Speaker 2>as we should be thinking through them.

0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:33.559
<v Speaker 6>Artificial intelligence is reshaping the foundations of our societies.

0:11:33.760 --> 0:11:36.520
<v Speaker 2>I think Foreign Minster Wong has said some very helpful

0:11:36.559 --> 0:11:40.560
<v Speaker 2>things at the United Nations about the risk of nuclear

0:11:40.600 --> 0:11:45.040
<v Speaker 2>weapons intersecting with new artificial intelligence technologies.

0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:49.480
<v Speaker 6>Nuclear warfare has so far been constrained by human judgment,

0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:54.440
<v Speaker 6>by leaders who bear responsibility, and by human conscience. AI

0:11:54.559 --> 0:11:57.480
<v Speaker 6>has no such concern, nor can it be held accountable.

0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:00.840
<v Speaker 2>But I think our policy hasn't really caught up with

0:12:01.240 --> 0:12:03.560
<v Speaker 2>a lot of the rhetoric. I think for Australia, one

0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:05.240
<v Speaker 2>of the big challenges is what are we going to

0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:08.280
<v Speaker 2>do if one of our friends or close allies goes

0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:11.160
<v Speaker 2>nuclear you know, a country like South Korea for instance,

0:12:11.240 --> 0:12:14.200
<v Speaker 2>or Japan, a country that's one of our leading trading

0:12:14.240 --> 0:12:18.880
<v Speaker 2>partners and an increasingly close security partner for Australia as well.

0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:22.000
<v Speaker 2>Are we going to join in international sanctions against South

0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:24.600
<v Speaker 2>Korea and Japan and kind of stay true to our

0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:29.240
<v Speaker 2>non proliferation identity or are we going to display a

0:12:29.280 --> 0:12:32.480
<v Speaker 2>bit more sympathy and understanding. I think the other two

0:12:32.480 --> 0:12:35.200
<v Speaker 2>big challenges for Australia is as there is indeed a

0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:38.040
<v Speaker 2>nuclear arms race in Asia, or that's centered in Asia,

0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:40.920
<v Speaker 2>one of the big questions is how far south does

0:12:40.960 --> 0:12:43.640
<v Speaker 2>that go. I mean, it may seem very unlikely now

0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:47.440
<v Speaker 2>that Indonesia could go new clear, Indonesia's one of the

0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:52.080
<v Speaker 2>strongest advocates for nuclear non proliferation in the world at present,

0:12:52.200 --> 0:12:53.760
<v Speaker 2>But it's worth keeping in mind that back in the

0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:58.160
<v Speaker 2>nineteen sixties Indonesia did think seriously about obtaining a nuclear

0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:01.760
<v Speaker 2>weapons capability. And sometimes it's country trees do become bigger

0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:05.600
<v Speaker 2>and stronger economically, there's strategic personalities can change as well.

0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:08.560
<v Speaker 2>So that certainly would be a nightmare scenario for us,

0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:10.200
<v Speaker 2>and it might be one of the only factors that

0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:14.720
<v Speaker 2>leads Australia to seriously consider developing a nuclear weapons capability

0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:15.360
<v Speaker 2>of our own.

0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:18.040
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, is there a certain point at which it becomes

0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:21.440
<v Speaker 1>more dangerous for Australia to not have nuclear weapons?

0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:23.920
<v Speaker 2>I mean, it's worth keeping in mind that it's the past.

0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:27.760
<v Speaker 2>We've been down before. After China conducted as first nuclear

0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:32.079
<v Speaker 2>test in nineteen sixty four, the Gorton government did actively

0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:36.240
<v Speaker 2>think about developing a nuclear weapons capability. I think it

0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:38.560
<v Speaker 2>would take us some time to kind of build back

0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:44.160
<v Speaker 2>that capability and that expertise. But the other thing where

0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:47.080
<v Speaker 2>we need to really build our capacity is just in

0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:51.320
<v Speaker 2>the area of knowledge about nuclear strategy and policy and periferation.

0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:54.480
<v Speaker 2>There's not a lot of experts in the country or

0:13:54.480 --> 0:13:57.240
<v Speaker 2>even within government working on these areas, and I think

0:13:57.280 --> 0:13:59.839
<v Speaker 2>part of the reason for that is ORCUS has become

0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:03.560
<v Speaker 2>so all consuming. So certainly that's going to build up

0:14:04.000 --> 0:14:06.719
<v Speaker 2>a nuclear expertise to some extent, but it's a very

0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:10.200
<v Speaker 2>different kind of nuclear capability than the nuclear capabilities that

0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:14.800
<v Speaker 2>are coming with this new emerging nuclear arms race. But

0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:18.880
<v Speaker 2>as you said, Australia has been a longstanding supporter of

0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:22.000
<v Speaker 2>nuclear non proliferation. I think we really need to double

0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:24.840
<v Speaker 2>down on our efforts in that space, particularly at a

0:14:24.880 --> 0:14:29.000
<v Speaker 2>time when the nuclear non proliferation architecture is really coming

0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:32.960
<v Speaker 2>under strain and really crumbling and all but now falling apart.

0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:37.960
<v Speaker 1>Well, Brendan, thank you so much for your time.

0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:39.160
<v Speaker 2>Thanks so much for having me.

0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:44.040
<v Speaker 1>You can read Brendan Taylor's article about the new nuclear

0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:46.880
<v Speaker 1>arms race in the latest edition of Australian Foreign Affairs.

0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:50.360
<v Speaker 1>It's called the Bomb Will Asia Go Nuclear? And it's

0:14:50.360 --> 0:15:01.800
<v Speaker 1>out now. Also the News, the head of Australia's spy

0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:04.760
<v Speaker 1>agency has issued a warning that foreign powers are willing

0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:09.240
<v Speaker 1>and capable of assassinating dissidents on Australian soil. In a

0:15:09.280 --> 0:15:12.840
<v Speaker 1>major address, ASIO boss Mike Burgers warned that some nations

0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:17.000
<v Speaker 1>warned weaponize so called fault lines in countries they consider hostile,

0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:20.200
<v Speaker 1>and said the organization has foiled an elaborate plot by

0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:23.960
<v Speaker 1>foreign spies to convince several Australians to betray their country.

0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:30.000
<v Speaker 1>After months of grooming, and New Yorkers have emphatically elected

0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:33.240
<v Speaker 1>Zorin Mamdami as their next mayor. The thirty four year

0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:35.920
<v Speaker 1>old will become the second youngest mayor of New York,

0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:38.600
<v Speaker 1>as well as the first Muslim and only the second

0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:43.400
<v Speaker 1>Democratic Socialist to run the US's largest city. I'm Ruby Jones.

0:15:43.720 --> 0:15:45.480
<v Speaker 1>This is seven am. Thanks for listening.