WEBVTT - Trump’s midterm reckoning

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<v Speaker 1>The golden age of America begins right now.

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<v Speaker 2>When Donald Trump returned to the White House, he promised

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<v Speaker 2>Americans a new era of prosperity.

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<v Speaker 1>And our top priority will be to create a nation

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<v Speaker 1>that is proud, prosperous and free.

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<v Speaker 2>Now as Americans prepare to vote in midterm elections, that

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<v Speaker 2>promise is being tested. And the voters that put Trump

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<v Speaker 2>in power could determine how much of that power he

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<v Speaker 2>has left. With polls showing Democrats have a strong chance

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<v Speaker 2>of taking both houses, Republican candidates are wrestling with the

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<v Speaker 2>cost of the president's unmet vision and a series of

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<v Speaker 2>unfulfilled promises, while Democrats hope to turn disillusionment into a

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<v Speaker 2>political comeback after years of MAGA. I'm Daniel James, and

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<v Speaker 2>you're listening to 7am. Today, Director of the Australia Institute's

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<v Speaker 2>International Security Affairs Program, Emma Shortus, on an election that

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<v Speaker 2>will test how deeply Trump has changed America and whether

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<v Speaker 2>another vision of the country can take hold. It's Monday,

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<v Speaker 2>November 2. Emma, good to see you. These are the

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<v Speaker 2>most hotly anticipated midterms in quite some time.

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<v Speaker 3>Why?

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<v Speaker 4>Look, I think this... midterm cycle is being seen both

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<v Speaker 4>as a big test of Trump's version of America and

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<v Speaker 4>of American democracy itself. You know, the Trump administration has

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<v Speaker 4>been engaged in a huge concerted effort for some time

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<v Speaker 4>now to undermine the institutions of American democracy. And I

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<v Speaker 4>think there's a sense that this is the big test

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<v Speaker 4>of how well that might have worked.

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<v Speaker 2>On a podcast this month, Republican Senator Tom Tillis warned

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<v Speaker 2>that his party was heading for a, quote, whoop-ass, unquote,

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<v Speaker 2>in these midterms.

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<v Speaker 3>When the bullshit becomes policy that's problematic, you get this November,

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<v Speaker 3>this thing that's going to happen 20 days from now,

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<v Speaker 3>which I have on my countdown clock as whoop-ass.

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<v Speaker 2>Trump won a decisive victory just two years ago. So

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<v Speaker 2>what's gone so badly wrong for the Republicans?

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<v Speaker 4>Look, I think in some ways, Dan, they're a victim

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<v Speaker 4>of their own success. The Trump administration has been able

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<v Speaker 4>to implement a huge suite of its policy commitments through

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<v Speaker 4>things like Project 2025. And those policy commitments are always

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<v Speaker 4>deeply unpopular. Things like the tariffs, things like mass deportations,

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<v Speaker 4>which Americans overwhelmingly are opposed to and find incredibly cruel

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<v Speaker 4>and have been organizing against. And so in that sense,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, his success is a problem for him, but

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<v Speaker 4>so is his arrogance. You know, I think particularly the

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<v Speaker 4>illegal war on Iran that Trump started with Netanyahu in

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<v Speaker 4>Israel is having a huge impact on Americans. They are

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<v Speaker 4>in the midst of a cost of living crisis and

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<v Speaker 4>they can pin that on one guy, you know, it's

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<v Speaker 4>Trump's fault. And so I think, What we're potentially seeing

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<v Speaker 4>is a huge backlash to both, you know, the success

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<v Speaker 4>of the Trump administration in implementing its policies and its

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<v Speaker 4>arrogance in doing so.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's fair to say that Trump's victory in

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<v Speaker 2>2024 depended on winning over voters who might have traditionally

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<v Speaker 2>supported the Democrats, particularly young men, Latino voters, working class Americans.

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<v Speaker 2>Are those voters actually abandoning him now? And what does

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<v Speaker 2>that tell us about why they voted for him in

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<v Speaker 2>the first place?

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, I think TBC, Daniel, you know, we'll have

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<v Speaker 4>to wait and see what those voters do in this election.

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<v Speaker 4>But certainly polls are indicating that, you know, Trump's support,

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<v Speaker 4>particularly amongst minority voters, you know, it was really striking

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<v Speaker 4>last time around, as you rightly pointed out, that Trump

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<v Speaker 4>did quite well with Latino voters, particularly in places like Florida.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that is likely to change largely as a

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<v Speaker 4>result of, you know, both cost of living, but also

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<v Speaker 4>those mass deportation policies, which overwhelmingly, of course, are directed

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<v Speaker 4>at non-white Americans. And so I think we'll see a

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<v Speaker 4>big shift there. I think also in young people, polls

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<v Speaker 4>are indicating that many of the more left-wing Democratic candidates

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<v Speaker 4>in places like Michigan are hugely popular with young people. And,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, I think That tells us, of course, a

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<v Speaker 4>number of things about the American voters' mindset, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>that they are moving away from Trump, partly because he

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<v Speaker 4>has created this cost of living crisis, but also because

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<v Speaker 4>he hasn't delivered on the promises that he made to

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<v Speaker 4>a number of those people, especially around the cost of living.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, Trump was elected on a promise to address

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<v Speaker 4>that crisis and he's done precisely the opposite.

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<v Speaker 3>And Mr.

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<v Speaker 5>President, you've been saying for weeks that oil and gas

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<v Speaker 5>prices are going to come down.

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<v Speaker 2>Oil is now back above $ 100 a barrel.

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<v Speaker 5>How do you explain this to Americans who are wondering

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<v Speaker 5>when it's going.

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<v Speaker 6>To come down? Well, I think it's very easy to

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<v Speaker 6>explain to America. All you have to do is say,

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<v Speaker 6>will you let Iran have a nuclear weapon? And the

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<v Speaker 6>answer is no. And they're doing very poorly. Their country

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<v Speaker 6>is in shambles.

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<v Speaker 4>But I think it's worth, I just do want to

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<v Speaker 4>say that there is this huge tendency, especially in American media,

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<v Speaker 4>to overstate the influence of the swinging voter, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>of that mainstream American, usually a white man who kind

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<v Speaker 4>of swings between Democrats and Republicans. There's always a huge

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<v Speaker 4>focus on them. The big outlets like New York Times

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<v Speaker 4>are always looking for them and looking to talk to

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<v Speaker 4>them in places like, you know, Maine or Michigan. But

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<v Speaker 4>I think that The emphasis should actually be on turnout.

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<v Speaker 4>Turnout is what is going to matter, not small groups

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<v Speaker 4>of swinging voters, I think.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, because there's expected to be about 100 million people

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<v Speaker 2>turn out to vote, but there are 200 million people

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<v Speaker 2>eligible to vote. So it's always been a massive problem.

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<v Speaker 2>Trump is also facing growing dissent from within MAGA itself,

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<v Speaker 2>the rusted-on supporters. His war with Iran has infuriated some

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<v Speaker 2>of the most prominent American first forces, while other supporters

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<v Speaker 2>have turned on him over the Epstein files. Are we

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<v Speaker 2>seeing the MAGA movement begin to fall apart, or is

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<v Speaker 2>that just wishful thinking?

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<v Speaker 4>I'm always worried, I guess, that it is wishful thinking,

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<v Speaker 4>because this is a question we've been asking ourselves since

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<v Speaker 4>Trump was first elected.

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<v Speaker 2>You've been burnt too many times.

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<v Speaker 4>I really have. We keep waiting for the Republicans to

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<v Speaker 4>abandon Trump. We keep waiting for the thing that will

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<v Speaker 4>happen that will make them all jump ship, and it

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<v Speaker 4>hasn't happened yet. There are certainly signs that the coalition

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<v Speaker 4>is fracturing, but there are always signs that the coalition

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<v Speaker 4>is fracturing, and we've got to pay attention to the

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<v Speaker 4>power dynamics within that coalition, I think. Certainly, The libertarian

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<v Speaker 4>wing of that coalition is furious with Trump over both

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<v Speaker 4>the Iran war and the way he's dealt or hasn't

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<v Speaker 4>dealt with the Epstein files. But it's worth emphasising that

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<v Speaker 4>that part of the coalition doesn't have a huge amount

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<v Speaker 4>of power. Now, that will matter absolutely for turnout. And

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<v Speaker 4>it's certainly possible that if we do see a blue wave,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, an overwhelming loss for Republicans, that they may

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<v Speaker 4>begin to jump ship. But again, I think we've got

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<v Speaker 4>to be very sceptical and we shouldn't underestimate just how

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<v Speaker 4>much Trump has an eye and grip on the Republican Party.

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<v Speaker 6>Thank you very much. Hello, Texas.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a very special place to me.

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<v Speaker 6>Because, you know, I come back.

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<v Speaker 2>What should we read into the fact that President Trump

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<v Speaker 2>has hit the hustings in places that have traditionally been

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<v Speaker 2>red states?

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<v Speaker 4>I think this is a sign of just how much

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<v Speaker 4>electoral trouble they think Republicans think they are in, quite rightly.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, we are In a situation now where it

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<v Speaker 4>looks like places like Texas, which hasn't had a Democrat

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<v Speaker 4>win a statewide election since 1994, might have a Democrat

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<v Speaker 4>in the Senate.

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<v Speaker 1>Seven days from now, the people of Texas are going

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<v Speaker 1>to defeat Democrat communist James Tallarico.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, James Tallarico there, the Democratic candidate, is polling ahead.

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<v Speaker 4>Not by much, you know, we're talking one or two

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<v Speaker 4>percentage points, usually within the margin of error, but he's

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<v Speaker 4>ahead and... Democratic candidates haven't been able to do that

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<v Speaker 4>so far. In places like Kansas, it looks possible that

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<v Speaker 4>Democrats will win there. And Kansas has an elected... a

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<v Speaker 4>Democrat in the Senate since like the 1930s, like literally

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<v Speaker 4>almost a century.

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<v Speaker 2>Since before the Wizard of Oz.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that's a great benchmark. And so, you know, they

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<v Speaker 4>are in trouble and Trump is, you know, because we've

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<v Speaker 4>talked already about how turnout is so critical. That's what

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<v Speaker 4>Trump is trying to drive. You know, he's trying to

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<v Speaker 4>find those supporters in places like Kansas and get them

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<v Speaker 4>to come out and vote because part of the problem

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<v Speaker 4>is that support for Trump is not necessarily kind of

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<v Speaker 4>disappearing from But it's waning, you know, it's lost its

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<v Speaker 4>kind of virulence, I think. And there is a huge

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<v Speaker 4>amount of mobilisation, of course, happening on the other side.

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<v Speaker 4>And so Trump's trying to drive this, you know, enthusiasm

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<v Speaker 4>and turnout, which historically he's been very good at.

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<v Speaker 2>Still to come, should the Democrats go all in on

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<v Speaker 2>the Mamdani approach? Emma, if we look at the Democrats,

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<v Speaker 2>they seem to have settled on one central message for

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<v Speaker 2>the midterms, and that is around the cost of living.

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<v Speaker 2>But how big is the divide in the party over

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<v Speaker 2>how to confront Trump and what kind of alternative to

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<v Speaker 2>offer Americans? What are the tensions within all of that?

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<v Speaker 4>I think this is a battle for the soul of

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<v Speaker 4>the Democratic Party is what we are seeing. It's been

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<v Speaker 4>going on for a number of years, really, since the

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<v Speaker 4>Biden years. But we're seeing this play out electorally where

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<v Speaker 4>you have for the United States, kind of quite radically

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<v Speaker 4>left-wing candidates who seem to have the momentum, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>in places like Michigan with the Senate candidate there, Abdul El-Sayed,

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<v Speaker 4>of course, in New York with Zoran Mamdani, and in

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<v Speaker 4>a number of other places, you've seen this kind of

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<v Speaker 4>radical resurgence of the young, vibrant wing of the Democratic Party.

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<v Speaker 4>And many of their policy positions are in kind of

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<v Speaker 4>direct opposition to the more, I guess, mainstream establishment wing

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<v Speaker 4>of the party, especially around key issues, of course, like Israel.

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<v Speaker 4>And so they're united around the question of the cost

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<v Speaker 4>of living, but not in how to address it. And

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<v Speaker 4>they're not united on those other key issues. And you

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<v Speaker 4>can already see a kind of fight for the narrative

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<v Speaker 4>around where power lies in the Democratic Party. But I

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<v Speaker 4>think it was really interesting to note that former President

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<v Speaker 4>Barack Obama, who still wields an enormous amount of influence

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<v Speaker 4>in the party, was in Michigan over the weekend campaigning

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<v Speaker 4>with Abdul El-Sayed.

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<v Speaker 2>Are you ready to go? Let's make Jocelyn Benson governor.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's make Abdul El-Sayed senator. Let's get on to the

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<v Speaker 1>path of making this country better.

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<v Speaker 7>I love you, Detroit.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that tells us a bit about where power

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<v Speaker 4>might be shifting in the party, but that it will

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<v Speaker 4>be hard fought.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so if we just take a brief look at

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<v Speaker 2>Abdul El-Sayed, What does his popularity tell us about the

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<v Speaker 2>potential direction of the Democratic Party? What sort of things

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<v Speaker 2>is he espousing? What is resonating with voters there?

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<v Speaker 4>I think a number of things. You know, El-Sayed is

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<v Speaker 4>unapologetically for the version of America that celebrates its racial diversity,

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<v Speaker 4>it celebrates its democracy and its vibrancy.

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<v Speaker 8>America does not need us to cower backward when small-minded

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<v Speaker 8>people tell us that we are not part of this place.

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<v Speaker 8>America needs us to bring all that we have and

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<v Speaker 8>all that we can contribute to the work of making

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<v Speaker 8>America that great place it can yet be.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, it's such a stark contrast to Trump's version

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<v Speaker 4>of America that this man, an Arab American, son of immigrants,

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<v Speaker 4>a doctor, could be elevated to such a prominent position

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<v Speaker 4>where everyone wants to talk to him. But I think

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<v Speaker 4>he is part of a longer battle in the Democrats,

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<v Speaker 4>particularly in Michigan, around how to deal with Trump, whether

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<v Speaker 4>it's about kind of appealing to that mythical kind of

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<v Speaker 4>centrist swing, usually white voter in the heart of the

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<v Speaker 4>Rust Belt, in the kind of bellwether of American politics,

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<v Speaker 4>or whether it's about a broader appeal to the rest

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<v Speaker 4>of America as well and to young people in particular.

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<v Speaker 4>and to Arab Americans in Michigan who have been trying

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<v Speaker 4>to tell the Democratic Party for years now that they

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<v Speaker 4>want something more. They want a commitment to principle, to

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<v Speaker 4>international law. They want the Democrats to stand up to

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<v Speaker 4>Trump from a position of value and from a position

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<v Speaker 4>of principle. Al-Said is the manifestation of that. In a way,

0:13:24.500 --> 0:13:28.050
<v Speaker 4>he's the dream candidate of that. He is you know, eloquent.

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<v Speaker 7>To hold Trump accountable for this war, to end this war,

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<v Speaker 7>to end these ridiculous tariffs. I mean, starting a tariff

0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:38.340
<v Speaker 7>war with Canada is an insane thing to do, and

0:13:38.420 --> 0:13:40.339
<v Speaker 7>we pay for it. Those would be the first two

0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:42.800
<v Speaker 7>things we could do to really bring down prices immediately.

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<v Speaker 7>Of course, you've been a critic of President Trump.

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<v Speaker 4>I think a lot of his politics has been described

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<v Speaker 4>as confrontational, but it's not. I think it's just strong

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<v Speaker 4>and coming from a position of principle and not willing

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<v Speaker 4>to concede on cultural issues or allow Trump to kind

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<v Speaker 4>of shift the ground under him.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm here to keep a jihadist Muslim Brotherhood member from

0:14:06.830 --> 0:14:11.929
<v Speaker 1>becoming a United States Senator, and that's the fact.

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<v Speaker 8>I get that the President of the United States takes

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<v Speaker 8>personal offense to my first name. He doesn't mind as

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<v Speaker 8>much when it's a shared name from the Saudis who

0:14:20.420 --> 0:14:26.380
<v Speaker 8>are funding his son-in-law's private equity. Doesn't seem to mind

0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:30.100
<v Speaker 8>as much when it's the Qataris who are giving him

0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:31.620
<v Speaker 8>a $ 400 million private jet.

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<v Speaker 4>So I think in a way it's emblematic of how

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<v Speaker 4>this battle for the soul of the Democratic Party is

0:14:39.530 --> 0:14:42.590
<v Speaker 4>playing out. And it's worth emphasising that El-Sayed is really

0:14:42.630 --> 0:14:45.850
<v Speaker 4>popular in Michigan, but he's particularly popular with young people.

0:14:46.480 --> 0:14:49.940
<v Speaker 4>In some polls, he's like sitting at 80% support among

0:14:49.960 --> 0:14:54.520
<v Speaker 4>young people compared to his opposing candidate so you know

0:14:54.820 --> 0:14:57.860
<v Speaker 4>there's potentially something radical happening in there um but again

0:14:58.000 --> 0:14:58.500
<v Speaker 4>we've got to wait.

0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:01.880
<v Speaker 2>And see and finally emma if the democrats do manage

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<v Speaker 2>to pull off a blue wave and take control of

0:15:04.250 --> 0:15:08.810
<v Speaker 2>congress deliver a a whoop ass how much would that

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<v Speaker 2>actually change donald trump's presidency i mean what would it

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<v Speaker 2>mean for his agenda.

0:15:13.160 --> 0:15:15.420
<v Speaker 4>I think that's a great question, Daniel, and it's one

0:15:15.460 --> 0:15:19.280
<v Speaker 4>that's really difficult to predict, I think, because it depends

0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:21.540
<v Speaker 4>on how the Democrats behave, how they take it, and

0:15:21.580 --> 0:15:24.210
<v Speaker 4>it depends on how Trump reacts, which I guess is

0:15:24.230 --> 0:15:26.990
<v Speaker 4>a little bit more predictable. But certainly it will make

0:15:27.090 --> 0:15:30.110
<v Speaker 4>Trump's life a lot more difficult. If Democrats control Congress,

0:15:30.150 --> 0:15:33.220
<v Speaker 4>they can do things like investigate Trump and the people

0:15:33.250 --> 0:15:38.270
<v Speaker 4>around him, investigate his family, his sons, his son-in-law, through

0:15:38.570 --> 0:15:42.130
<v Speaker 4>pretty significant powers. Those committees have the power to subpoena

0:15:42.290 --> 0:15:46.260
<v Speaker 4>people and compel them to provide evidence. So that may

0:15:46.300 --> 0:15:50.100
<v Speaker 4>make Trump's life more difficult. Of course, passing legislation becomes

0:15:50.620 --> 0:15:54.479
<v Speaker 4>increasingly difficult. But it's worth saying that Trump hasn't really

0:15:54.500 --> 0:15:59.060
<v Speaker 4>been doing that anyway. He's certainly been ignoring Congress governing

0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:02.470
<v Speaker 4>through executive order And it's also true that we know

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<v Speaker 4>when he feels cornered, when he feels weak, which he

0:16:05.590 --> 0:16:09.090
<v Speaker 4>may well do if he doesn't have any control of Congress,

0:16:09.550 --> 0:16:12.070
<v Speaker 4>he lashes out and he leans into the areas where

0:16:12.110 --> 0:16:15.430
<v Speaker 4>he does have significant power. And I think that's why

0:16:15.470 --> 0:16:18.510
<v Speaker 4>we're hearing, I guess, musings from the White House about,

0:16:18.610 --> 0:16:22.230
<v Speaker 4>and Trump himself, about renewing the war on Iran after

0:16:22.250 --> 0:16:25.990
<v Speaker 4>the midterms and using overwhelming force there, because that's where

0:16:26.030 --> 0:16:29.450
<v Speaker 4>Trump does have power and where Congress has historically been

0:16:29.590 --> 0:16:33.730
<v Speaker 4>just unwilling to constrain the president. So I think in

0:16:33.810 --> 0:16:37.110
<v Speaker 4>that sense, you know, it could radically affect Trump's presidency,

0:16:37.210 --> 0:16:39.890
<v Speaker 4>but it could also make Trump's presidency even more radical.

0:16:41.300 --> 0:16:43.720
<v Speaker 2>Well, it sounds like a volatile situation is about to

0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:47.060
<v Speaker 2>get more volatile. Emma, thanks for joining us again on 7am.

0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:48.760
<v Speaker 4>Always a pleasure. Thank you.

0:17:02.640 --> 0:17:06.870
<v Speaker 2>Tomorrow on 7am, Democracy Now! founder and independent journalist Amy

0:17:06.910 --> 0:17:09.870
<v Speaker 2>Goodman has been keeping the bastards on us before some

0:17:09.910 --> 0:17:10.570
<v Speaker 2>of us were born.

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<v Speaker 5>It's our job to go to where the silence is,

0:17:15.010 --> 0:17:19.940
<v Speaker 5>and it is often not silent. People are organising, they're raucous,

0:17:20.060 --> 0:17:25.410
<v Speaker 5>they're rowdy. That's where Democracy Now! lives. On the ground

0:17:25.590 --> 0:17:31.370
<v Speaker 5>where people are describing their own experiences, there is nothing

0:17:31.630 --> 0:17:32.470
<v Speaker 5>more powerful.

0:17:33.510 --> 0:17:35.690
<v Speaker 2>Now, at a time when it's never been more important

0:17:35.730 --> 0:17:38.780
<v Speaker 2>to hold power to account, Goodman is speaking out on

0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:42.040
<v Speaker 2>the dangers of training truth for access and why independent

0:17:42.080 --> 0:17:45.360
<v Speaker 2>media needs to fight back. That'll be in your feed tomorrow.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Daniel James. Thanks so much for listening. you