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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: The value of the Australian housing market hit twelve point

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Speaker 1: three trillion dollars, but the pace of price rises are

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Speaker 1: expected to slow this year. Kevin Radd steps down as

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Speaker 1: Australia's ambassador to the US, and the new boss of

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Speaker 1: Endeavor has good news for drinkers. The group's bottle shops

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Speaker 1: and pubs will compete on price. Plus Woolworths to introduce

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Speaker 1: AI to help you do the groceries, and we'll tell

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Speaker 1: you about one of the fastest growing apps in the world.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the fourteenth of January twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Are Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning the value of Australia's housing

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Speaker 1: market has risen to twelve point three trillion dollars, which

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Speaker 1: is almost three times the value of superannuation assets, four

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Speaker 1: times the value of the ASX, and the view among

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Speaker 1: analysts is that prices will keep rising, though not at

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Speaker 1: the same pace as last year. Was pretty impressive.

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Speaker 2: It was the median value of a home in Australia

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Speaker 2: raise eight point six percent last year that was the

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Speaker 2: eleventh best year in the past four decades, but the

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Speaker 2: pace of growth was easing across most regions by the

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Speaker 2: end of the year. In fact, in four weeks to

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Speaker 2: January eight, median prices and Sydney and Melbourne were actually lower,

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Speaker 2: down zero point one percent. Most capitals were reporting the

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Speaker 2: strongest growth conditions across the lowest quartal of the value range.

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Speaker 2: That's basically saying buyers are looking for more affordable houses.

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Speaker 2: Catality estimated there were five hundred and sixty one thousand

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Speaker 2: transactions in twenty twenty five, which is about seven percent

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Speaker 2: higher than five years or the five year average. Rents

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Speaker 2: have increased across every broad region of Australia, ranging from

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Speaker 2: more than ten percent in regional wa to three percent

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Speaker 2: in Melbourne. Big question, of course, will house prices rises

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Speaker 2: as by as much this year, Well, Michael, the consensus

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Speaker 2: seems to be no totality. Research director Tim Lawless expects

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Speaker 2: price rises, but not as much as twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Same deal with amp's chief economist Shane Oliver. Domain is

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Speaker 2: forecasting a six percent jump across the country, led by

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Speaker 2: a city in Melbourne, but that's not as much as

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. So the upshot of it is twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty five actually a really good year. In fact, you know,

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Speaker 2: one of eleventh of the last forty years. However, twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty six perhaps not so good if you own a home,

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Speaker 2: might be very good, though if you're buying.

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Speaker 1: How much of that then do you suspect sean is

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Speaker 1: interest rate related? Because of course we had falling rates

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. We have three rate cuts, but

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Speaker 1: some economists expect rates to actually rise this year, which

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Speaker 1: surely has to kind of hit the housing market.

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Speaker 2: Yes that rates play a big role, no doubt about it,

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Speaker 2: but other factors matter, cotalities. Tim Lawless actually said the

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Speaker 2: best year of the last forty was nineteen eighty eight.

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Speaker 2: Rates were around fifteen percent, the cash rate was around

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Speaker 2: fifteen percent. House prices jumped more than thirty percent.

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Speaker 1: Wow.

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Speaker 2: Now a lot of that is because I was sold off,

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Speaker 2: so it's kind of a bounce back. Next best was

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Speaker 2: COVID in twenty twenty one, prices are up nearly twenty

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Speaker 2: five percent. A bunch of things at play here, apart

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Speaker 2: from rates, fiscal policy, So the government's got a bunch

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Speaker 2: of schemes at the moment, including first homeowners schemes which

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Speaker 2: helps things along credit availability, what banks are prepared to lend.

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Speaker 2: There'll be some changes in bank lending rules in February

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Speaker 2: next month, so we'll see how that one works out.

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Speaker 2: Demand side pressure, so we saw a big jump in

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Speaker 2: prices and rents, particularly as a result of migration eighteen

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Speaker 2: months ago or thereabouts. Also supply side such as factors

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Speaker 2: such as housing starts. We're talking yesterday about running out

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Speaker 2: about housing starts running at about or building approvals running

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Speaker 2: about two hundred and five thousand, so that's actually picked up.

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Speaker 2: So there's a bunch of these issues that also impact overall.

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Speaker 2: There's actually ain't even been six negative years in the

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Speaker 2: last forty so they do tend to rise. Interest rates

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Speaker 2: have a big role, but there's lots of other factors.

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Speaker 1: That is staggering. That nineteen eighty eight figure of jumping

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Speaker 1: thirty one percent when interest rates are around fifteen percent.

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Speaker 1: That is amazing. I was two.

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Speaker 2: Is it university?

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Speaker 1: Okay?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 1: Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will step down as Australia's

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Speaker 1: ambassador to the United States SEAN, ending a somewhat tumultuous

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Speaker 1: tenure where he fell out of favor, I would say

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Speaker 1: big time with US President Donald Trump. His decision to

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Speaker 1: resign and move back to the leading foreign policy think

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Speaker 1: tank Asia Society, which he did lead previously, will remove

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Speaker 1: a bit of a thorn, you would say, a source

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Speaker 1: of tension between Canberra and Washington.

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Speaker 2: I think so the change occurred a year earlier than expected. Yesterday,

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister Anthony I have an easy praised Rudd's ability

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Speaker 2: to build relationships on both sides of politics and many

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Speaker 2: the complex role, there's also a plainty I mean already

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Speaker 2: there's plenty of speculation that it don't laugh about a

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Speaker 2: complete role word. I mean, look, he's probably actually had

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Speaker 2: a pretty good tenure, to be honest, but we're all

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Speaker 2: just going to remember him for what he said about

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. He drags America and democracy through the mud and.

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Speaker 1: Then traitor to the West. I think he said as.

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Speaker 2: Well, yep, yep, yeah, yeah, and then he kind of

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Speaker 2: deleted those in the last year. Albanez he was over

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Speaker 2: there and a reporter asked Trump about Rudd, and he

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Speaker 2: looked at him and he basically said, I think it

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Speaker 2: was like, I don't like you either, and I probably

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Speaker 2: never will.

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Speaker 1: But look, you know, but to be fair, Kevin Rudd

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Speaker 1: is in good company then to have received a dressing

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Speaker 1: down from the President because he's Volodi Missolenski, A whole

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Speaker 1: bunch of others have all popped it from the from

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Speaker 1: the President. But still fronting up knowing that that was

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Speaker 1: probably going to come. It's a tough job.

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Speaker 2: To do, right, Courageous of speculation about whose next. Maybe

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Speaker 2: former Defense Minister Joel Fitzgibbon. Maybe Stephen Conroy, former Telcom

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Speaker 2: Minister in the Labor government, though he did actually once

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Speaker 2: tweet that Trump was moronically stupid, so I'm guessing he

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Speaker 2: probably won't get the gig now. Department of Defense Secretary

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Speaker 2: Greg Moriarty would be quite a safe pair of hands.

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Speaker 2: The other one being mentioned former PM Scott Morrison.

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Speaker 1: Interesting, which would make sense because he does have a

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Speaker 1: very good relationship with the President.

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Speaker 2: Definitely, yeah, definitely.

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Speaker 1: All right, We've covered a bit of crust already here,

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Speaker 1: Sean a lot still to come back in a moment

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Speaker 1: with the rest of the day's business news. Sean the

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Speaker 1: former boss of jet Star Australia, A two Milk and

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Speaker 1: Virgin Australia. Jane Hrdlicker has arrived at a new gig,

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Speaker 1: running the pubs and bottle shop giant Endeavor, and she's

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Speaker 1: got a bit of good news forers. She wants her

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Speaker 1: businesses to compete on price.

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Speaker 2: That's not necessarily welcome news for shareholders, and Dev's share

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Speaker 2: price for about five percent on opening yesterday, closed down

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Speaker 2: about one percent or thereabouts. The better news for shareholders

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Speaker 2: was that Endeavor owned dan Murphy's recorded its biggest ever

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Speaker 2: holiday period in terms of sales, though discounting did hurt earnings.

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Speaker 2: It's forecast for December half were disappointing. Analyst said her

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Speaker 2: look it took over on January one, reckons Dan murphy

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Speaker 2: is at winning market share from rivals. She's all for

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Speaker 2: top line growth, revenue growth, and the way to do

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Speaker 2: that is via lower prices. She said. Kind of the

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Speaker 2: last three or four months, they've done really well at

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Speaker 2: dan Murphy's from that resonating with consumers and Devorn, of course,

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Speaker 2: was spun out of Woolies in twenty twenty one. Operates

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Speaker 2: about three hundred and fifty hotels, seventeen hundred bottle shops,

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Speaker 2: most of which Dan Murphy's and BWS.

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Speaker 1: Woollies you mentioned. Willis just then Woolworth has done a

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Speaker 1: deal with Google's AI platform called Gemini to introduce meal plan,

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Speaker 1: shopping and delivery all in one go. This is streamlined.

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Speaker 2: I'm loving it. The idea you work out what you

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Speaker 2: want for next week's for dinner out of the next

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Speaker 2: week or so. Not sure, you go a Woolli's chatbot

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Speaker 2: called Olive, Olive five kids, eight kids, two kids, whatever

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Speaker 2: it is, we'll be hame. We're healthy people. What should

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Speaker 2: we buy? Olive gives you a list, then goes to Woolies.

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Speaker 2: Woolies creates the shopping trolley. You look at it, you go,

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Speaker 2: yeah like that, like that, don't want that one? Yeah

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Speaker 2: like that? Got some of that already at home. If

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Speaker 2: you go and pay your money, groceries will be sent

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Speaker 2: out to you. It's pretty cool now. Will is the

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Speaker 2: first big supermarket chain in Australia to let AI powered

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Speaker 2: agents do the shopping for you. Others are getting into it.

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Speaker 2: It really is looking too how AI will change shopping.

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Speaker 2: For example, Olive will from later in the year do

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Speaker 2: more than answering basic questions. Basically, Shi'll do all the

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Speaker 2: meal planning, put it into your bar basket, all that

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Speaker 2: sort of stuff. Deal's part of a string of agreements

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Speaker 2: Google has struck with major retailers in the US, including

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Speaker 2: supermarket Giant Kroger, home improvement chain Lows, and pizza franchise

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Speaker 2: Papa John's.

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Speaker 1: I like it because you still have input into it,

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Speaker 1: you still have to check off on it, you have

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Speaker 1: to proceed, and you have to actually have to process

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Speaker 1: the payment yourself, but everything else is done for you,

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Speaker 1: So it's actually quite nifty. I'd look forward to giving

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Speaker 1: it a go. What about the rest of the AX?

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Speaker 1: How did it go yesterday?

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Speaker 2: It was one of the best sessions of the year.

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Speaker 2: The SMPA six two hundred closed up more than half

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Speaker 2: percent to eight zero five points. The BOSS is now

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Speaker 2: about three point four percent off its all time high

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Speaker 2: of last year. The material sector, including the miners, did

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Speaker 2: well as spot gold prices headed towards forty six hundred

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Speaker 2: US dollars an ounce. Copper prices jumped beyond thirteen hundred

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Speaker 2: US dollars a ton. Copper is well and truly in

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Speaker 2: record territory at the moment. Silver also in record territory.

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Speaker 2: BHP and RIO both jumped around three percent. The major

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Speaker 2: banks were also high as with the gold diggers and

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Speaker 2: battery metal miners. However, the big soupermarkets CSL, Telstra, those

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Speaker 2: stable companies underperformers.

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Speaker 1: I love the fact that she described it as one

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Speaker 1: of the best sessions this year, this year being fourteen

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Speaker 1: days old, of which I think of live of them

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Speaker 1: haven't been training days yeah ah. Anyway, turning to international news,

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Speaker 1: now shown US President Donald Trump has threatened to slap

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Speaker 1: a twenty five percent tariff rate on countries doing business

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Speaker 1: with Iran. As Washington Waser responds to Tehran's brutal crackdown

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Speaker 1: on some of the deadliest anti regime protests in the years.

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Speaker 2: In a post on truth Social Trump said, effective immediately,

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Speaker 2: any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran

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Speaker 2: will pay a tariff of twenty five percent on any

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Speaker 2: and all business being done with the United States of America.

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Speaker 2: So who does that is he talking about? Well, some

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Speaker 2: of the top exporters to Iran are China, the UAE

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Speaker 2: in India. Now, Trump comments had no detail to it,

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Speaker 2: so it's no idea how it's going to work. According

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Speaker 2: to The New York Times, Iran, of course, is experiencing

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Speaker 2: its biggest anti government demonstrations in years. Trump has said

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Speaker 2: the US may meet Iranian officials and that he was

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Speaker 2: in contact with Iran's opposition. He's also threatened military action.

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Speaker 2: But for the moment, he's slapping tariffs on. Now, can't

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Speaker 2: take a little side issue here. Why do you slap

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Speaker 2: tariffs on?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good points play those cliches.

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Speaker 2: Isn't it slapping tariffs on? I don't know why we

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Speaker 2: I mean, I read it and it's just went slap,

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Speaker 2: And I thought, oh, why do I use words? Slap,

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Speaker 2: not place, put, punch, punch.

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Speaker 1: Just flucking words out at random, And all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden we see why slap is actually quite a good alternative. Yes.

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Speaker 1: One of the mentioned this at the very top of

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Speaker 1: the show. Shaw and this next one. One of the

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Speaker 1: most popular new apps in China encourages users to check

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Speaker 1: in every two days to confirm they are in fact alive.

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Speaker 1: The app is called optimistically Are You Dead.

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Speaker 2: Yes, So basically we'll get in touch with a designated

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Speaker 2: emergency contact if users do not check in to give confirmation.

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Speaker 2: The most popular Apple Store download in China, according to

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Speaker 2: the Telegraph of London. It's also very popular in It's

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Speaker 2: the top two app rankings in US, Singapore and Hong Kong,

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Speaker 2: Top four in Australia. Interestingly enough, it's attracted many new

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Speaker 2: customers in recent months, especially among younger people who live

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Speaker 2: alone in China. Research shows there will be as many

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Speaker 2: as two hundred million one person households in China by

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Speaker 2: twenty thirty, according to Global Times, and there are about

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Speaker 2: thirty million more men than women as a result of

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Speaker 2: the countries failed one child policy, which was abolished ten

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Speaker 2: years ago. The app has certainly faced I mean it's

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Speaker 2: got a real use and not just for older people,

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Speaker 2: but it has faced some criticism, particularly over its choice

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Speaker 2: of name.

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Speaker 1: What's of surprise.

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Speaker 2: Develop A Moonscape Technologies is confirmed that a change is

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Speaker 2: under consideration. Are You Dead The app amazing growth, a

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Speaker 2: lot of it outside China apparently are expats. So experts

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Speaker 2: living in Australia using the are You Dead app the

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Speaker 2: Chinese expats, So that's where most of the growth is

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Speaker 2: coming from. But a funny little story.

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Speaker 1: There we go. Okay, good way to finish Sean. Coming

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Speaker 1: up next is Fear and Greed Q and A. It's

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Speaker 1: our summer series, so you'll find it in your playlist

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Speaker 1: around about lunchtime, about one o'clock today, you're speaking with

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Speaker 1: Gorave Sodi today, who is from invest Smart, who's one

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Speaker 1: of our favorite guests when we're talking about deep dives

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Speaker 1: into companies, and in today's episode, it's all about wes

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Speaker 1: Farmers and in particular the Anko story within wes Farmers,

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Speaker 1: which is obviously the Kmart home brand, and then Bunnings

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Speaker 1: as well, and the fact that these two businesses are

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Speaker 1: kind of the secret source behind wes Farmers's growth and

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Speaker 1: success in recent years.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean West Farmers is now might get this wrong,

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Speaker 2: six or seventh largest stock on the AX. It's only

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Speaker 2: behind BHP in the big four banks. I may be right,

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Speaker 2: So it's certainly six or seven bigger than says Zell.

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Speaker 2: Really one of the great success stories and phenomenal retailers

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Speaker 2: as well as other chemicals and other industries. So we

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Speaker 2: talked to gorev All about that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great chat. It is coming up a

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Speaker 1: little bit later today, so around one o'clock check back

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Speaker 1: in your playlist and you'll see it there as part

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Speaker 1: of our Fear and Greed summer series. Thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, the fourteenth of January twenty twenty six. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: That was fear and greed. Have a great day.