WEBVTT - Could Kashmir trigger nuclear war between India and Pakistan?

0:00:04.920 --> 0:00:07.960
<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

0:00:08.039 --> 0:00:15.880
<v Speaker 1>It's Thursday, May eighth, twenty twenty five. Unions are threatening

0:00:15.920 --> 0:00:19.840
<v Speaker 1>to strike on Australia's biggest renewable energy project, snowy two

0:00:19.880 --> 0:00:23.360
<v Speaker 1>point zero workers, some of whom earn over two hundred

0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:28.560
<v Speaker 1>thousand dollars, want pay rises, productivity bonuses and better entitlements.

0:00:32.880 --> 0:00:36.000
<v Speaker 1>A ban on smacking is being urged on the Queensland government,

0:00:36.200 --> 0:00:38.440
<v Speaker 1>with a group of academics saying it's a breach of

0:00:38.520 --> 0:00:42.839
<v Speaker 1>human rights and leaves children with fewer protections than dogs.

0:00:43.320 --> 0:00:47.560
<v Speaker 1>The change wouldn't affect most Queenslanders, but would mean removing

0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:51.960
<v Speaker 1>a defense of reasonable punishment for alleged offenders charged with

0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:56.480
<v Speaker 1>assaulting children. Those two exclusives are live at the Australian

0:00:56.600 --> 0:01:03.920
<v Speaker 1>dot com dot a U right now. Insanely beautiful and

0:01:04.200 --> 0:01:07.720
<v Speaker 1>dangerous as hell. Kashmir is one of the world's most

0:01:07.840 --> 0:01:11.600
<v Speaker 1>hotly disputed pieces of territory, the mountain state of India,

0:01:11.840 --> 0:01:16.160
<v Speaker 1>which Pakistan believes it should control now. In response to

0:01:16.200 --> 0:01:20.160
<v Speaker 1>what it says is Pakistani terrorism, India has launched missiles

0:01:20.360 --> 0:01:25.120
<v Speaker 1>and Pakistan has responded with artillery fire. Dozens of civilians

0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:30.160
<v Speaker 1>are reported dead. So is this just another skirmish or

0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:33.040
<v Speaker 1>a new war? For us all to get our heads

0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:48.240
<v Speaker 1>around Today, Foreign editor Greg Sheridan breaks it down. Greg,

0:01:48.280 --> 0:01:51.000
<v Speaker 1>I've just been looking at some pictures of Kashmir. It

0:01:51.040 --> 0:01:55.639
<v Speaker 1>looks like Middle Earth or Switzerland, doesn't it It does.

0:01:55.760 --> 0:01:58.480
<v Speaker 2>I've spent some time in Kashmir and it is really

0:01:58.520 --> 0:02:01.920
<v Speaker 2>one of the most beautiful places on Earth. The lake

0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:09.239
<v Speaker 2>is magnificent, dotted with these lovely antique house boats. The

0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:14.440
<v Speaker 2>town Shrinegar is full of magnificent little markets and shops

0:02:14.480 --> 0:02:18.760
<v Speaker 2>of local produce and so forth. The Indians have preserved

0:02:18.800 --> 0:02:22.720
<v Speaker 2>the best of the British colonial architecture, so you go

0:02:22.800 --> 0:02:26.000
<v Speaker 2>for morning tea and some grand old building. And the

0:02:26.040 --> 0:02:29.919
<v Speaker 2>Indians have a genius for drawing out the nostalgia of

0:02:30.000 --> 0:02:33.360
<v Speaker 2>the Raj without submitting to its politics. And if it

0:02:33.400 --> 0:02:38.680
<v Speaker 2>weren't for the endless terrorism and disputes, it would be

0:02:38.720 --> 0:02:43.680
<v Speaker 2>flooded with tourists always because there's magnificent countryside and wildlife

0:02:43.720 --> 0:02:50.040
<v Speaker 2>reserves and so on. That's next time you're in Kashmir,

0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:54.000
<v Speaker 2>don't miss this place. It still gets a lot of

0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:56.480
<v Speaker 2>tourists anyway. The minute there's a bit of peace, they

0:02:56.520 --> 0:02:58.240
<v Speaker 2>get a lot of tourists from the rest of India

0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:00.679
<v Speaker 2>and two minutes of peace. This brings a lot of

0:03:00.760 --> 0:03:06.200
<v Speaker 2>tourists from the rest of the world. Tonight, India says

0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:10.200
<v Speaker 2>it has targeted nine sites quote it's in terrorist infrastructure.

0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:13.799
<v Speaker 2>The new video explosions can be seen and heard. Pakistani

0:03:13.840 --> 0:03:16.239
<v Speaker 2>officials say at least one child is dead and two

0:03:16.320 --> 0:03:19.320
<v Speaker 2>people are injured after India struck parts of Pakistan and

0:03:19.360 --> 0:03:20.919
<v Speaker 2>Pakistan controlled Kashmir.

0:03:20.960 --> 0:03:24.880
<v Speaker 1>India has launched missile strikes against Pakistan tonight in an

0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:28.840
<v Speaker 1>apparent response to a deadly terrorist attack in Indian Administered

0:03:28.880 --> 0:03:34.320
<v Speaker 1>Kashmir two weeks ago. So why is Kashmir at the

0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:37.040
<v Speaker 1>center of a dispute between India and Pakistan which has

0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:40.120
<v Speaker 1>resulted in the past forty eight hours in India launching

0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:43.680
<v Speaker 1>air strikes on Pakistan and Pakistan Administered Kashmir.

0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:48.960
<v Speaker 2>The state of Kashmir, Kashmir and Jamu as it's called,

0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:55.600
<v Speaker 2>is the only Muslim majority state within India and the

0:03:55.680 --> 0:03:59.600
<v Speaker 2>dispute goes back to the partition between India and Pakistan

0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:04.720
<v Speaker 2>and nineteen forty seven when there was the most terrible

0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:11.160
<v Speaker 2>inter communal massacres. Hindus, Muslims and Sikhs were all massacred

0:04:11.280 --> 0:04:15.520
<v Speaker 2>in huge numbers in the breakup of Pakistan and India,

0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:20.360
<v Speaker 2>and there was a massive population transfer between the two states,

0:04:21.279 --> 0:04:26.440
<v Speaker 2>and Kashmir went with India and became part of India. Now,

0:04:26.839 --> 0:04:30.400
<v Speaker 2>India has always been a secular democracy and in a

0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:33.719
<v Speaker 2>sense it's quite proud of having a Muslim majority state.

0:04:34.080 --> 0:04:40.880
<v Speaker 2>Pakistan has never accepted the legitimacy of Indian rule of Kashmir,

0:04:41.480 --> 0:04:47.320
<v Speaker 2>and Pakistan has continued to sponsor a really futile, needless,

0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:51.640
<v Speaker 2>destructive and violent campaign of terrorism within Kashmir, and that,

0:04:51.720 --> 0:04:55.719
<v Speaker 2>of course has often led to pretty severe overreaction from

0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:59.440
<v Speaker 2>Indian security forces. So there's been a lot of nasty

0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:02.400
<v Speaker 2>violence in what should be almost the garden of Eden.

0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:05.560
<v Speaker 1>The latest version of that was on the twenty second

0:05:05.680 --> 0:05:09.520
<v Speaker 1>of April, when twenty six people, mostly tourists, were killed

0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:14.400
<v Speaker 1>in a resort town called Pahalgan. Indian Prime Minister or

0:05:14.400 --> 0:05:17.839
<v Speaker 1>and Ramodi said at the time that India would pursue

0:05:17.960 --> 0:05:20.880
<v Speaker 1>the attackers to the ends of the earth. Clearly India

0:05:20.920 --> 0:05:25.799
<v Speaker 1>blamed Pakistan, although Pakistan denied responsibility. And now we're seeing

0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:29.640
<v Speaker 1>the result what's the truth there greg about whether or

0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:34.279
<v Speaker 1>not Pakistan is actually perpetrating acts of terror against civilians

0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:35.640
<v Speaker 1>in these places.

0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:40.480
<v Speaker 2>So Claire, I have no independent way of verifying Pakistani

0:05:40.600 --> 0:05:44.760
<v Speaker 2>involvement in that particular terrorist attack, but there's no doubt

0:05:44.760 --> 0:05:48.800
<v Speaker 2>at all. Pakistan sponsors are a great range of terrorist

0:05:48.839 --> 0:05:52.400
<v Speaker 2>groups within Kashmir. And it does that for several different reasons.

0:05:52.480 --> 0:05:55.880
<v Speaker 2>One is that it will never give up its claim

0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:58.880
<v Speaker 2>to Kashmir, a little bit like China with Taiwan. This

0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:03.040
<v Speaker 2>is rooted in the nationalist myth of Pakistan. Another is

0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:07.120
<v Speaker 2>that it has a tremendous inferiority complex towards India. India

0:06:07.200 --> 0:06:10.280
<v Speaker 2>is much bigger, much more successful. India is now a

0:06:10.320 --> 0:06:15.400
<v Speaker 2>global dynamic power, a global dynamic economy. Pakistan is really

0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:20.040
<v Speaker 2>a very unsuccessful state. But then there are darkomotives as well.

0:06:20.160 --> 0:06:25.839
<v Speaker 2>Pakistan is challenged internally by Islamists extremism and by jihadism,

0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:28.960
<v Speaker 2>and one of the ways it deals with that, one

0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:31.039
<v Speaker 2>of the ways it sort of copes with that is

0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:35.720
<v Speaker 2>to try to redirect that chie hardest energy at external enemies.

0:06:35.839 --> 0:06:39.800
<v Speaker 2>So it did this for a time in relation to Afghanistan,

0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:43.040
<v Speaker 2>and it has always done it in relation to India.

0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:46.440
<v Speaker 2>So it's sub rosa dialogue with its own extremists. So

0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:48.320
<v Speaker 2>to speak, is to say that you might not think

0:06:48.839 --> 0:06:53.240
<v Speaker 2>where Islamist enough, But by golli, we are supporting our

0:06:53.320 --> 0:06:58.800
<v Speaker 2>brothers in Kashmir against those perfidious Hindu in lopers from India.

0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:02.440
<v Speaker 2>The reality is India will never ever give up Kashmir.

0:07:02.640 --> 0:07:05.520
<v Speaker 2>That's inconceivable. The Indian state would have to be liquidated

0:07:05.839 --> 0:07:08.240
<v Speaker 2>before it would give up Kashmir. So to continue to

0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:12.760
<v Speaker 2>support terrorism is utterly futile and nihilist. This is a

0:07:12.840 --> 0:07:17.640
<v Speaker 2>very dangerous situation, extremely dangerous. But up until now, India

0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:22.640
<v Speaker 2>and Pakistan have shown a lot of expertise in going

0:07:22.720 --> 0:07:24.920
<v Speaker 2>so far, but not further.

0:07:28.720 --> 0:07:30.920
<v Speaker 1>Now, how does the rest of the world line up?

0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:34.160
<v Speaker 1>Greg China is interested in this region. In fact, China

0:07:34.200 --> 0:07:37.120
<v Speaker 1>and India ford war over a different part of Kashmir

0:07:37.160 --> 0:07:41.040
<v Speaker 1>in the past. Does China have skin in this particular game?

0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:45.440
<v Speaker 2>Not really. China has its own bit of Kashmir, which

0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:47.520
<v Speaker 2>it's not going to give back to anybody, certainly not

0:07:47.560 --> 0:07:50.560
<v Speaker 2>to Pakistan or anyone like that, and it has other

0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:56.440
<v Speaker 2>territorial claims against India. China is a strategic backer of Pakistan.

0:07:56.480 --> 0:08:00.520
<v Speaker 2>I mean, Pakistan really got its nuclear weapons capability ultimately

0:08:00.520 --> 0:08:04.200
<v Speaker 2>from Chinese sources, and that was done by the Chinese

0:08:04.240 --> 0:08:08.600
<v Speaker 2>in order to hurt India. China and India are strategic rivals.

0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:12.480
<v Speaker 2>But China at the moment is completely preoccupied with Donald

0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:17.120
<v Speaker 2>Trump's economic challenge. But I think China wants the situation

0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:20.320
<v Speaker 2>to de escalate. There's nothing in it for China to

0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:24.840
<v Speaker 2>have an escalation of this situation. Similarly, America certainly wants

0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:28.200
<v Speaker 2>a de escalation. The United States is certainly not going

0:08:28.280 --> 0:08:30.679
<v Speaker 2>to back anybody with military force anywhere in the world,

0:08:30.720 --> 0:08:33.240
<v Speaker 2>it seems, and I think the outside world will just

0:08:33.320 --> 0:08:38.719
<v Speaker 2>be urging restraint and de escalation on both parties.

0:08:43.160 --> 0:09:01.840
<v Speaker 1>Coming up. Could this turn into nuclear war? Is this

0:09:01.920 --> 0:09:04.079
<v Speaker 1>a potential nuclear war of the future.

0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:08.840
<v Speaker 2>Well, every situation that involves nuclear armed states is a

0:09:08.840 --> 0:09:15.360
<v Speaker 2>potential nuclear war. This is a very tense border. One

0:09:15.400 --> 0:09:19.480
<v Speaker 2>of the big questions of our time is whether the

0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:25.640
<v Speaker 2>extended US nuclear deterrent will apply during President Trump and

0:09:25.679 --> 0:09:29.520
<v Speaker 2>after President Trump. One reason the world has been able

0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:32.800
<v Speaker 2>to contain the spread of nuclear weapons is that all

0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:37.360
<v Speaker 2>American allies shelter under extended American nuclear deterrance, which means

0:09:37.600 --> 0:09:39.680
<v Speaker 2>that I don't need nuclear weapons of their own because

0:09:40.080 --> 0:09:44.360
<v Speaker 2>the nuclear attacks on them are deterred by America's power

0:09:44.400 --> 0:09:47.760
<v Speaker 2>to respond. That doesn't apply in India and Pakistan. But

0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:50.400
<v Speaker 2>India and Pakistan are a good example of where the

0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:53.840
<v Speaker 2>world would be if we didn't have extended American nuclear

0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:58.880
<v Speaker 2>deterrans because many more nations would feel that their security

0:09:58.880 --> 0:10:01.680
<v Speaker 2>compel them to have new clear weapons. If the American

0:10:01.679 --> 0:10:04.240
<v Speaker 2>Alliance system breaks down, you're going to have India Pakistan

0:10:04.720 --> 0:10:08.160
<v Speaker 2>replicated all over the world. Half the Gulf States who

0:10:08.160 --> 0:10:11.840
<v Speaker 2>feel under threat from Iran would feel they need to

0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:14.480
<v Speaker 2>have their nuclear weapons if Iran has nuclear weapons, and

0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:18.200
<v Speaker 2>so on. The nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would

0:10:18.200 --> 0:10:22.079
<v Speaker 2>devastate the whole planet. It wouldn't just be a regional matter.

0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:26.720
<v Speaker 2>But neither nation would want it. I mean, both India

0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:30.160
<v Speaker 2>and Pakistan are still very poor nations, and not only

0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:32.480
<v Speaker 2>would they not want a nuclear exchange, they would regard

0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:39.600
<v Speaker 2>a nuclear exchange as absolutely devastating, almost armageddon. Therefore, I

0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:43.840
<v Speaker 2>think a nuclear exchange is extremely unlikely, but I don't

0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:46.520
<v Speaker 2>want to suggest from that that we should be complacent

0:10:46.760 --> 0:10:51.040
<v Speaker 2>about a shooting war between two nuclear armed rivals. With

0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:55.000
<v Speaker 2>deep enmities and a long history of military conflict across

0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:56.360
<v Speaker 2>their borders.

0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:06.320
<v Speaker 1>Greg Sheridan is The Australian's Foreign editor and our go

0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:10.400
<v Speaker 1>to expert whenever the world starts looking complicated. You can

0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:14.520
<v Speaker 1>read his analysis and reporting anytime by joining our subscribers

0:11:14.640 --> 0:11:16.920
<v Speaker 1>at the Australian dot com dot au