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Speaker 1: From the newsroom.

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Speaker 2: Are news to come to you.

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Speaker 3: Today? There, I'm Andrew Bucklow. Well, I'm not sure if

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Speaker 3: you saw this terrifying article on news dot com dot

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Speaker 3: au this week. It was about a group of defense

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Speaker 3: experts sounding the alarm. They think that Russia could attack

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Speaker 3: another country in Europe as early as twenty twenty seven.

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Speaker 3: Not a cyber attack, not a disinformation campaign, a full

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Speaker 3: scale assault on a NATO nation, and if that happens,

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Speaker 3: it could lead to the outbreak of World War III.

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Speaker 3: In this episode, we'll find out why Vladimir Putin would

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Speaker 3: consider such an attack, how Europe would likely respond, and

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Speaker 3: how Australia could get dragged into the conflict. Let's start

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Speaker 3: with a quick refresher. So Russia invaded Ukraine back in

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Speaker 3: February twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: It all began from a desk before dawn, when Russian

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Speaker 1: President Vladimir Putin declared a special military operation on Russian television.

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Speaker 1: Russia cannot feel sife develop a new exist with a

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Speaker 1: constant threat emanating from the territory of modern Ukraine, he said,

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Speaker 1: describing the government in Kiev as a hunter of Neo

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Speaker 1: Nazis determined to build nuclear weapons.

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Speaker 3: Russia's decision to invade was partly driven by the threat

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Speaker 3: of NATO's expansion along its border. NATO is the North

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Speaker 3: Atlantic treaty organization. It has thirty two member countries, including

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Speaker 3: six that directly border Russia. NATO's guiding principle is that

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Speaker 3: an attack against one NATO member is considered an attack

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Speaker 3: against all, and Russia wants to do everything it can

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Speaker 3: to prevent its borders being surrounded by NATO members and

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Speaker 3: from Ukraine joining the alliance. Now, the United States is

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Speaker 3: the backbone of NATO, but in recent years, Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: has criticized the organization, arguing the US carries the majority

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Speaker 3: of the financial burden. He wants European member countries to

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Speaker 3: pay more. They asked me that question.

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Speaker 1: One of the presidents of a big country stood up, said, well, sir,

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Speaker 1: if we don't pay and we're attacked by Russia, will

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Speaker 1: you protect us.

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Speaker 3: I said, you didn't pay your delinquent.

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Speaker 2: He said yes, let's say that happened. No, I would

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Speaker 2: not protect you.

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Speaker 1: In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the

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Speaker 1: hell they want.

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Speaker 3: You gotta pay, you gotta pay your bills. That was

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Speaker 3: last year, and since then NATO countries have significantly increased

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Speaker 3: their defense spending, with the NATO Secretary General this week

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Speaker 3: calling for even more to.

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Speaker 2: Make natal fairer. We will heap balance the burden of

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Speaker 2: our security with all allies contributing their fair share.

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Speaker 3: There is a concern though, that Trump will eventually try

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Speaker 3: to withdraw the US from NATO when if that happens,

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Speaker 3: Europe will be more exposed and Putin may feel emboldened

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Speaker 3: to attack another nation. President Putin will tell you that

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Speaker 3: without the United States he wouldn't be worried, but he

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Speaker 3: is when the United States is involved.

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Speaker 2: Well.

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Speaker 3: Joining me now to discuss all of this is Dr

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Speaker 3: Malcolm Davis, a senior analystor from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

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Speaker 3: Great to have you on the show, Malcolm, that's my

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Speaker 3: pleasure to chip away this bit by bit, starting with

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Speaker 3: the war in Ukraine, how do you anticipate that will

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Speaker 3: play out this year? Will Putin be looking to make

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Speaker 3: a deal and wrap it up or does he want

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Speaker 3: this to drag on for as long as possible.

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Speaker 4: He wants it to drag on. He feels that he's

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Speaker 4: winning militarily on the ground. He can tell that the

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Speaker 4: Trump administration is vacillating and uncertain about its support, and

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Speaker 4: so he feels the momentum is shifting in his favor.

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Speaker 4: What he wants to do is basically take more Ukrainian territory.

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Speaker 4: He already controls key parts of areas such as Donyetsk, Luhansk,

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Speaker 4: Zapparija and her Son, as well as obviously Crimea. He

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Speaker 4: wants to expand those footholds and ultimately take more territory,

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Speaker 4: including major cities such as Harkiv. So you are seeing

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Speaker 4: the Russians moving towards establishing a summer offensive that could

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Speaker 4: include more advances in the eastern area, in the Dombas

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Speaker 4: as well as to the north of Harkiev. And I

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Speaker 4: think that he has no interest whatsoever in peace talks

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Speaker 4: or a ceasefire.

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Speaker 3: So there's been a bit of a chat lately about

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Speaker 3: the fact that Vladimir Putin may have plans to attack

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Speaker 3: other nations in the future. Is that likely?

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Speaker 2: Do you think? Absolutely? We need to be very cautious

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Speaker 2: of that.

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Speaker 4: I think when you talk to the Europeans, they are

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Speaker 4: deadly serious about the prospect that Putin will extend the

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Speaker 4: war beyond Ukraine. Ultimately. Putin's theory of victory. What he

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Speaker 4: wants to achieve out of all of this is to

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Speaker 4: dictate the terms of NATO's capitulation in Eastern and Central Europe,

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Speaker 4: and that means he needs to break NATO's resolve and unity.

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Speaker 4: The way he could do that would be having secured

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Speaker 4: his control of Ukraine, he would then spend a year

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Speaker 4: or two to rearm and regroup the Russian military and

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Speaker 4: then launch an attack on one of the NATO states,

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Speaker 4: probably the Baltic states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, with the

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Speaker 4: aim being not to invade and overrun NATO, but to

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Speaker 4: essentially destroy NATO unity, to show that NAT those states

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Speaker 4: are not united in responding to what's known as an

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Speaker 4: Article five continuency, and so ultimately shatter NATO as an organization.

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Speaker 4: If he can do that, then you could see a

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Speaker 4: lot of Central and Eastern European states recognizing that NATO

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Speaker 4: is no longer a credible actor, essentially becoming battles of

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Speaker 4: a Russia.

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Speaker 2: That's what he wants.

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Speaker 3: When do you think hypothetically this could all happen, Because

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Speaker 3: if the war is dragging on in Ukraine, then does

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Speaker 3: he really have the ability to stretch the war into

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Speaker 3: other countries.

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Speaker 4: If the United States turns away from Ukraine, as the

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Speaker 4: Trump administration has suggested it might, that will reduce Ukraine's

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Speaker 4: ability to resist Russian attacks. You could see Russia gain

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Speaker 4: the advante disposition in Ukraine's by the end of this year,

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Speaker 4: and then Russia would seek to use any period after

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Speaker 4: that to regroup and rearm.

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Speaker 2: And so we're talking probably.

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Speaker 4: Within the next five years, is for a Russian attack

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Speaker 4: on a NATO state. And then the question is how

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Speaker 4: does NATO Europe respond, as opposed to the US under Trump.

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Speaker 2: If the US is not prepared to.

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Speaker 4: Honor its obligations under Article five of the NATO Charter,

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Speaker 4: which says an attack on one is an attack on all,

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Speaker 4: then it would be down to the European states to respond,

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Speaker 4: and you could see a much wider war occurring as

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Speaker 4: a result of that. Obviously, then with the risk of

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Speaker 4: nuclear escalation, I mean, one of the things that Putin

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Speaker 4: could do would be to use nuclear threats or even

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Speaker 4: demonstrative strikes to intimidate NATO into, as I said, capitulating,

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Speaker 4: and I think that that's.

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Speaker 2: A possibility as well.

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Speaker 4: So we are talking probably a three to five year

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Speaker 4: timeline for this.

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Speaker 3: I mean, this all hinges on the US. Where do

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Speaker 3: you think Donald Trump is going to go with NATO?

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Speaker 4: Look, I think already he's given indications that he no

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Speaker 4: longer sees Europe as being of primary security importance. Within

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Speaker 4: the Trump administration are focused on responding to the growing

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Speaker 4: threat from China, particularly in relation to Taiwan. So you

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Speaker 4: are seeing a pivot by the Trump administration away from

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Speaker 4: Europe and towards the Indo Pacific. But also Trump himself

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Speaker 4: sees things purely in transactional terms, so he will probably

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Speaker 4: try to reduce, certainly the commitment to Ukraine and potentially

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Speaker 4: reduce the commitment to Europe.

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Speaker 2: And so I'm not hopeful that the Trump.

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Speaker 4: Administration would maintain any security commitment to Europe in the

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Speaker 4: next three to five years.

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Speaker 3: If Putin was to attack another nation in the next

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Speaker 3: few years, would you say it's more likely to be

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Speaker 3: a hybrid kind of attack, So maybe a cyber attack,

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Speaker 3: a dis information campaign, or do you think it would

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Speaker 3: be a direct military invasion.

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Speaker 4: Well, that hybrid attack is occurring now, Okay, we are

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Speaker 4: seeing Russian hybrid attacks occurring across Europe in the form

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Speaker 4: of sabotage attacks on key facilities. We're seeing Russian deliberate

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Speaker 4: cutting of submarine cables in the Baltic Sea. We're seeing

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Speaker 4: cyber attacks, disinformation intelligence operations. So the hybrid warfare being

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Speaker 4: waged by Russia is occurring against NATO right now. The

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Speaker 4: question is when does that hybrid warfare then transition into

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Speaker 4: kinetic warfare, a traditional shooting war. And as I said,

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Speaker 4: I think that probably looking at a three to five

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Speaker 4: year timeline, depending on how long it will take for

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Speaker 4: Russia to re arm and a regroup.

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Speaker 3: If Russia were to attack another country in Europe in

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Speaker 3: a few years time, it could lead to the outbreak

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Speaker 3: of World War three. Dr Davis will explain how in

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Speaker 3: just a moment, welcome back, I am chatting to Dr

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Speaker 3: Malcolm Davis, a defense expert. Malcolm, three NATO member countries

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Speaker 3: have nuclear weapons. If Russia was to attack a NATO country,

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Speaker 3: how would NATO respond to that?

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Speaker 4: Well, if we take the US out of the picture,

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Speaker 4: who's one of those three nuclear states? You left with

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Speaker 4: France and the United Kingdom. President Macron has already suggested

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Speaker 4: that France will be willing to extend its nuclear forces

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Speaker 4: to create extended to terrence across Europe. In the place

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Speaker 4: of any US provided extended to terrence security guarantees. I

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Speaker 4: think the UK as well would be firmly aligned with NATO.

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Speaker 4: They're a key NATO member, They're not going to walk

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Speaker 4: away from that. So I think what you would see

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Speaker 4: is France and the United Kingdom step up in terms

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Speaker 4: of nuclear de terance to try and to turn Russia

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Speaker 4: from using nuclear threats or even in the instance of

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Speaker 4: Russia using tactical nuclear weapons to intimidate. And the question

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Speaker 4: is how do they respond to Russian nucleus saber rattling,

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Speaker 4: how do they respond to an actual nuclear weapons used

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Speaker 4: like a low yell tactical nuclear weapon in what's known

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Speaker 4: as a demonstrative strike, to what's known as escalate to

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Speaker 4: de escalate. I think that that's still uncertain. There's also

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Speaker 4: the question of whether a country like Poland would rapidly

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Speaker 4: acquire newcle weapons because they will be very much on

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Speaker 4: the front line alongside the Baltic States. So there's a

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Speaker 4: number of ways that could play out.

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Speaker 3: So we could see hypothetically a big scale war breakout

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Speaker 3: in Europe between several countries against Russia within five years.

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Speaker 4: Potentially, yes, I think certainly the Europeans are worried about that.

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Speaker 4: That's why the Europeans are moving very rapidly to rearm

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Speaker 4: and regroup their forces to be prepared for that contingency. Ideally,

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Speaker 4: they want to deter Russia from launching such a war,

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Speaker 4: but if that deterrence files, then they have to be

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Speaker 4: prepared to fight, because if they don't fight, then Putin

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Speaker 4: achieves his goal, which is, as I said, to dictate

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Speaker 4: the terms of NATO's capitulation in eastern Central Europe. And

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Speaker 4: I think that we also need to look at the

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Speaker 4: fact that whilst Putin is making these moves, Jishiping and

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Speaker 4: Beijing is watching this and watching how the US in particular,

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Speaker 4: but also Europe is responding. If g Sensor's weakness and

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Speaker 4: lack of resolve in Europe, he might be tempted to

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Speaker 4: accelerate his timetable for moving against Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: In the Indo Pacific.

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Speaker 4: So you are then potentially looking at opportunistic aggression, coordinated moves,

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Speaker 4: and what potentially could turn into a global war.

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Speaker 3: From an outsider's point of view, like, I just don't

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Speaker 3: understand what Putin's big problem is, right because he is

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Speaker 3: obviously worried about Russia being surrounded by NATO countries. But

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Speaker 3: NATO has no intent to attack Russia, So why is

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Speaker 3: he pushing so hard to get rid of NATO and

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Speaker 3: break it down.

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Speaker 4: He's an aggressor in the same way that Adolf Hitler

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Speaker 4: was an aggressor. He seeks expansion at the expense of

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Speaker 4: other states. He seeks territorial expansion. He ultimately wants to

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Speaker 4: control Eastern and Central Europe and have it as his own.

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Speaker 4: He has this concept of new Russia or novel Russia basically,

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Speaker 4: which is an expanded imperial Russia that controls other states.

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Speaker 4: He makes this class aime that somehow NATO expansion is

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Speaker 4: the justification for his actions. But that's rubbish in the

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Speaker 4: sense that NATO expansion occurred at the request of Eastern

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Speaker 4: and Central European states. That wasn't forced upon them. They

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Speaker 4: requested that expansion. They requested to become NATO members to

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Speaker 4: protect themselves against Russia. And as you say, NATO is

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Speaker 4: not an aggressive alliance, it is a purely defensive alliance.

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Speaker 4: So I think that Putin is essentially taking the same

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Speaker 4: moves as out of the playbook as.

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Speaker 2: Adolf Hitler did in the nineteen thirties and the nineteen forties.

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Speaker 4: We are facing essentially a very similar situation to that.

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Speaker 4: History is rhyming and we need to be ready for

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Speaker 4: the potential outcomes.

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Speaker 3: We have seen NATO members increase their defense spending this year.

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Speaker 3: Do you think NATO is currently doing enough to deter

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Speaker 3: further Russian aggression?

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Speaker 4: They could always do more, but I think they are

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Speaker 4: doing much better than what they have been doing in

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Speaker 4: the past. I think the one good thing in a

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Speaker 4: way that Trump did buy showing uncertainty in terms of

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Speaker 4: the US commitment to Europe is forcing the European states

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Speaker 4: to get serious about their own defense. I think that

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Speaker 4: was long overdue, and I think it's very good to

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Speaker 4: now see the European states doing much more to invest.

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Speaker 2: In defense spending.

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Speaker 4: Country is now going up to five percent of GDP

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Speaker 4: on defense spending.

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Speaker 2: We need to do the same down here in the

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Speaker 2: end of Pacific.

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Speaker 4: Our approach to defense spending is too little, too late,

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Speaker 4: So we need to take a leaf out of Europe's

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Speaker 4: book and start in spending much more on defense.

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Speaker 3: I might just finish on that. What will Australia's involvement

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Speaker 3: be Could we get dragged into a conflict in Russia

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Speaker 3: or would that all depend on what happens between China

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Speaker 3: and Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: Look, I think it really will depend on China and Taiwan.

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Speaker 4: I think the real risk here is of opportunistic aggression

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Speaker 4: by China alongside Russia. China could make a move on

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Speaker 4: Taiwan at the same time as Russia moves against NATO,

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Speaker 4: and we will have a handsfull here in working alongside

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Speaker 4: the Americans to counter that move. There's also the Korean Peninsula,

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Speaker 4: which we need to remember that you have Kim John

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Speaker 4: Nun with large numbers of nuclear weapons and a willingness

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Speaker 4: to use them. So when I say we're talking about

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Speaker 4: the possibility of world war within the next three to

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Speaker 4: five years, I'm deadly serious. And so therefore when we

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Speaker 4: think about that strategic threat, Australia does need to do

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Speaker 4: far more in terms of defense spending. The current government's

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Speaker 4: plan is to go up to two point three three

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Speaker 4: percent GDP on defense spending by twenty thirty three.

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Speaker 2: That's too little, too late.

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Speaker 4: We need to be thinking about between three and three

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Speaker 4: point five percent next year. And my concern is that

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Speaker 4: the government's simply not doing enough to respond to this

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Speaker 4: growing crisis.

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Speaker 3: Dr Malcolm Davis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, thank

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Speaker 3: you so much for channing to from the Newsroom.

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Speaker 2: My pleasure.

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Speaker 3: Well some terrifying comments there from Malcolm. Let's just hope

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Speaker 3: the cooler heads prevail and no future wars break out.

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Speaker 3: And Vladimir Putin if you're listening, calm dumb down, all right,

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Speaker 3: Thank you, all right, thanks for listening. I'll chat to

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Speaker 3: you again tomorrow. Follow us, Subscribe to from the Newsroom

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Speaker 3: wherever you get your podcasts.