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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed. Business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Australia's unemployment rate jumps to four point five percent, increasing

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Speaker 1: the chance of rate cut next month. Macquarie Group sixty

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Speaker 1: billion dollar data center sale, and good news for chocolate

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Speaker 1: lover's Cocoa prices are tumbling. Plus Reserve Bank Governor Michelle

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Speaker 1: Bullock's stern warning for the federal government and plans to

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Speaker 1: crack down on cryptocurrency ATMs. It is Friday, the seventeenth

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Speaker 1: of October twenty twenty five. Are Michael Thompson and good morning,

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Speaker 1: Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Morning, Michael. We say it every day, but there really

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Speaker 2: is something for everyone. You know, big bank staff, chocolate lovers,

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Speaker 2: interest rates, you name it, We've got it.

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Speaker 1: This morning, we certainly do. In the main story this

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Speaker 1: morning is a big one because Australia's unemployment rate has

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Speaker 1: jumped to four point five percent, which is a level

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Speaker 1: last scene during COVID lockdowns, with jobs growth in September

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Speaker 1: of just fifteen thousand positions.

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Speaker 2: The surprise reading from the Bureau Statistics triggered an immediate

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Speaker 2: surge on equity markets, pushed the dollar below sixty five

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Speaker 2: US cents and Bonnie els fell by their most in

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Speaker 2: one session since August, as investors assessed a much greater

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Speaker 2: likelihood of an interest rate cut next month. The unemployment

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Speaker 2: rate was higher than expected and came after just nine

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Speaker 2: thousand full time and six thousand part time jobs were

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Speaker 2: added to the economy, extending the streak of wow underwhelming

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Speaker 2: employment gains that we've seen this year. Over the year,

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Speaker 2: employment is growing at or has grown at about one

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Speaker 2: point three percent, while aggregate ours are up one point

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Speaker 2: four percent population growth rate of two point zero percent.

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Speaker 2: Put all that together, you're going to end up with

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Speaker 2: a higher unemployment rate. The participation rate remains near its

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Speaker 2: high as of sixty seven percent. I suppose that's the

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Speaker 2: good news. It's been hovering around that level all year.

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Speaker 2: What yesterday's report confirms is employment market is decelerating and

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Speaker 2: the unemployment rate is no longer in the low fours,

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Speaker 2: but in the mid falls, which is at or slightly

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Speaker 2: above where the Reserve Bank expects it to get. Since

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Speaker 2: late twenty twenty two, the non market sectors I think healthcare,

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Speaker 2: social assistance, education, public administration jobs they've accounted for nearly

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Speaker 2: two thirds of all jobs growth in Australia, the trend

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Speaker 2: is now starting to slow, given there's a normalization in

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Speaker 2: government spending as well as a pickup in private sector demand.

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Speaker 2: Leading indicators job adds that type of thing. They suggest

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Speaker 2: that there's unlikely to be a collapse in jobs, but

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Speaker 2: growth is definitely going to slow.

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Speaker 1: All right, bring it back to what it means for

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Speaker 1: all of us with a mortgage, sean, what does it

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Speaker 1: mean for interest rates?

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Speaker 2: Well, the Reserve Bank seems to have gone a little

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Speaker 2: cool on rate cuts, in large part because, as Governor

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Speaker 2: Michelle will look put it, recently, the labor market seems

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Speaker 2: a little tight. She won't be saying that anymore, certainly,

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Speaker 2: not after yesterday's figure. However, the crunch number comes in

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Speaker 2: the September quarter inflation reading on twenty nine October. All

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Speaker 2: in Hort and Michael markets have now priced in a

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Speaker 2: seventy percent chance of a rate cut. There are many

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Speaker 2: very very good economists out there saying there will be

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Speaker 2: a rate cut in November, but I think people will

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Speaker 2: become more or less confident on that only after that

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Speaker 2: twenty nine October date when we get the infation reading.

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Speaker 1: Okay, those labor force figures, though supercharged the ASX yesterday,

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Speaker 1: the BOSS hit an all time record, helped along by

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Speaker 1: real estate and financial stocks, which are of course both

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Speaker 1: sensitive to interest rate settings.

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Speaker 2: Around lunchtime yesterday, the SMPASX two hundred hit one hundred

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Speaker 2: and nine point seven points, setting a new high before

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Speaker 2: closing up just under one percent to nine thousand and

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Speaker 2: sixty eight points. Low interest rates puts money into people's pocket. Now,

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Speaker 2: when you've got more money in your pocket or your

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Speaker 2: bank account, you spend it and that helps earnings of

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Speaker 2: many companies. That's why the share market jumps when there

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Speaker 2: are interest rate cuts. Banks and property companies, for example,

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Speaker 2: are beneficiaries. Just think of the housing market. You know,

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Speaker 2: property companies oversee housing and commercial works that type of thing.

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Speaker 2: People expected to lower interest rates more likely to buy

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Speaker 2: a house. That helps the banks who are the lenders.

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Speaker 2: So yesterday, groups like Goodman Mervack, Stockland jumped, Comwealth Bank,

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Speaker 2: National Australian Bank, and an z or rows. The price

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Speaker 2: of gold pushed through forty two hundred US dollars announced

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Speaker 2: for the first time yesterday, helped buy US rate cut

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Speaker 2: bets and safe haven demand companies like Northern Star, Neumont, Evolution, Genesis, Perseus.

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Speaker 2: They all surged. Wasn't all good news. Some of the

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Speaker 2: battery metals companies fell sharply, although they've run really hard

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Speaker 2: in recent sessions. So Australian rare Worths tanked nearly twenty percent.

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Speaker 2: I Luka Linus they were both down sharply, So too

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Speaker 2: the IT sector.

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Speaker 1: And just quickly Sean. While we are on the subject

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Speaker 1: of markets and economics, Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock had

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Speaker 1: some pretty candid advice for the federal government yesterday.

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Speaker 2: She did. She effectively said the government needs to do

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Speaker 2: a better reducing the budget deficit. Speaking in Washington, she

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Speaker 2: said Australia should strive to deliver stronger fiscal results while

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Speaker 2: the economy is performing reasonably well. And I quote, if

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Speaker 2: we can't make the budget stronger during this period, while

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Speaker 2: the economy is doing quite well and there's lots of

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Speaker 2: people employed, then what happens in the next downturn? Bullock

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Speaker 2: suggested the government should make hay while the sun shines.

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Speaker 2: Not sure those in Washington thought of that particular, saying.

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Speaker 1: It's a very good point. They're just like, oh what.

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Speaker 2: What what make hay? What are we doing?

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Speaker 1: I mean strong.

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Speaker 2: Got in the AFR treasure Jim Chalmers has delivered two

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Speaker 2: budget surpluses and a relatively small deficit of ten billion

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Speaker 2: dollars in his first three years. That's on the back

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Speaker 2: of high commodity export prices, strong corporate tax rates. Or

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Speaker 2: it's gone strong corporate tax receipts, low unemployment, high income

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Speaker 2: tax revenue as a result of that one. So time's good.

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Speaker 2: Therefore you should be eating into the devast it rather

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Speaker 2: than keeping it on path.

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Speaker 1: Is this an example of jaw boning Sean? Maybe?

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Speaker 2: Maybe sometimes I reckon when these people bureaucrats really seen

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Speaker 2: you people get off shore, they kind of relax a

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Speaker 2: bit more. And I think she was speaking on the

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Speaker 2: sidelines of this conference. She probably just said what she thinks.

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Speaker 1: So it may not have been as deliberate as it's

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Speaker 1: just like what happens in Washington stays in Washington. That

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Speaker 1: doesn't really apply when you're the Reserve Bank governor.

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Speaker 2: And you've had like Phil Low, who is the previous governor,

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Speaker 2: Glenn Stevens the guy before Phil Low. They've both come

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Speaker 2: out and said, well, you know, times are pretty good.

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Speaker 2: The government should be doing something about the deficit. Now

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Speaker 2: they've obviously unconstrained because they no longer governed the Reserve Bank.

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Speaker 2: So I reckon when you know Glenn Stevens, Philow and

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Speaker 2: Michelle Bullock says, do better job on the budget. Well,

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Speaker 2: Jim Chalmers should listen.

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Speaker 1: It might make a little bit of sense. Okay, Sean

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Speaker 1: will be back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news. Sean mcquarie Group has sold a

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Speaker 1: network of fifty data centers across North and South America

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Speaker 1: to a consortium including black Rock and Video and Microsoft

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Speaker 1: for a casual forty billion US dollars or what's that

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Speaker 1: about sixty billion?

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Speaker 2: Aussie largest deal in the asset class ever sent mcquarie's

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Speaker 2: share price up five percent. It follows mcquari's deal to

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Speaker 2: sell Australia's air trunk to Blackstone twelve months ago for

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Speaker 2: about twenty three and a half billion dollars. It really

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Speaker 2: does highlight mcquarie's deal making ability in one of the

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Speaker 2: hottest markets in the world at the moment. Data centers

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Speaker 2: infrastructure funds managed by McQuary's asset management arm have investments

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Speaker 2: in another five data center companies across China, the UK

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Speaker 2: and the US. Okay, So they're nowhere near as big

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Speaker 2: as this deal yesterday in the company of the groups

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Speaker 2: called Aligned Data Centers, but it does aug well for

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Speaker 2: the company. Aligned Data Centers includes about The deal includes

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Speaker 2: about twenty one billion dollars of equity, meaning McQuary certainly

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Speaker 2: still has plenty of skin in the game. Aligned has

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Speaker 2: grown from two locations when Crow first invested in twenty

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Speaker 2: eighteen to over fifty campuses that house more than five

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Speaker 2: gigawats of operational and planned capacity. It's huge, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: It's a great deal like that just demonstrates why mcquarie

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Speaker 2: has been so successful over so long. It just picks

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Speaker 2: the trend, gets in early, gets out, it.

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Speaker 1: Makes a lot of money along the way. Sewan Home

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Speaker 1: Affairs Minister Tony Burke I thought this was really interesting yesterday.

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Speaker 1: He is planning to introduce legislation that will allow the

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Speaker 1: money laundering regulator OSTRAK to crack down on cryptocurrency ATMs.

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Speaker 2: I didn't even realize the word cryptocurrency ATMs.

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Speaker 1: Michael, I've never used one in fact, and to be fair,

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Speaker 1: I don't think I've ever spotted one in public. But no, now,

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Speaker 1: maybe that's more about.

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Speaker 2: Me and me it's all right. Birk said the proliferation

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Speaker 2: of the cash machines was making it easier for criminals

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Speaker 2: to launder gains. He described them as an easy point

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Speaker 2: of entry for some of the worst elements in our

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Speaker 2: country to be able to transfer cash into currency in

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Speaker 2: a way that's harder for us to be able to find.

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Speaker 2: He was speaking at the National Press Club. He had,

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Speaker 2: you know, as you'd expect with the Home Affairs Minister

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Speaker 2: at the National Press Club, fairly wide ranging speech. He

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Speaker 2: talked about the different threats facing Australia security environment, saying

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Speaker 2: that they've converged so separate conversations about terrorism, foreign interference, espionage,

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Speaker 2: other types of international crime have begun to overlap. Now

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Speaker 2: Labour's agenda in all this includes bringing all this under

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Speaker 2: the one roof. Basically, they're moving cybersecurity under the control

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Speaker 2: of Home Affairs, bringing the Australian Federal Police, ASIO, Criminal

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Speaker 2: Intelligence Commission and OSTRACK back under the same department. The

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Speaker 2: whole idea has had his mega department to look after

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Speaker 2: this sort of international crime that's going on.

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Speaker 1: Santos has suffered a delay to the startup of at

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Speaker 1: six point one billion dollar Barosso Gas project in the

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Speaker 1: Team Orse, forcing the oil and gas producer to cut

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Speaker 1: production guidance for the full year now.

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Speaker 2: Chief executive Kevin Gallaher blamed software issues that affect safety

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Speaker 2: systems on boards of production chip. The bruss a gas

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Speaker 2: project in the Team or see, is a big one

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Speaker 2: for Santos, a key part of before cast jump in

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Speaker 2: production by twenty twenty seven. Two weeks shut down, however,

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Speaker 2: will slow down the ramp up of gas flows from

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Speaker 2: the project, important time for Santos. Galloher's under pressure following

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Speaker 2: the collapse of the thirty six billion dollar takeover offer

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Speaker 2: from a Middle Eastern oil producer. Investors are very much

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Speaker 2: pushing for a full focus on new startup projects, this

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Speaker 2: being one of them hoping to reap the benefits of

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Speaker 2: expected jump in cash flows. Bad timing for this to happen,

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Speaker 2: and that's.

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Speaker 1: Got to be frustrating that it is software issues affecting

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Speaker 1: safety systems on board a production ship. Okay, it's not

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Speaker 1: a kind of a major thing that they couldn't get

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Speaker 1: everything they needed all in one place. It's like one

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Speaker 1: small piece essentially off the chain and the whole thing

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Speaker 1: is delayed. Yeah, training, I imagine now acting Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: Richard Marles yesterday paid his respects to the Australian Defense

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Speaker 1: Force soldier who died from injuries after a vehicle rollover

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Speaker 1: in Townsville on Tuesday night.

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Speaker 2: Defense said that two other Army personnel were injured and

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Speaker 2: transported to Townsville University Hospital. Both have since been discharged.

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Speaker 2: The accident took place during a training course. Miles, who

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Speaker 2: is of course the Defense Minister, said, I quite my

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Speaker 2: thoughts so with the family, friends, loved ones and colleagues

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Speaker 2: of the Australian Army soldier who has sadly passed away

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Speaker 2: following a training incident near Townsville. In a joint statement,

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Speaker 2: Opposition let Susan Lee in Defense spokesman Angus Taylor also

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Speaker 2: extended their condolences. Very sad now, Michael, I just want

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Speaker 2: a quick change of pace here before we gave to

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Speaker 2: international news.

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Speaker 1: Oh yes, yes go on.

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Speaker 2: Guardian BirdLife Australia poll of Australia's favorite bird ah go

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Speaker 2: On has been released. Three hundred and ten thousand votes

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Speaker 2: were cast.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, many by me. No, I'm just I'm not kiddingly

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Speaker 1: lurted once. Did you really do not this year?

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Speaker 2: I have previously no, right, right, Well, the perennial runner

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Speaker 2: up has taken the title this year. The tawny frog mouth.

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Speaker 1: Oh, that's one of my favorite birds.

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Speaker 2: It is one of the ugliest. Look it's like a

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Speaker 2: mini owl or something rather yeah.

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Speaker 1: But they just they blend in so well. Their camouflage

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Speaker 1: with a branch is just so incredible, Like it's quite

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Speaker 1: inspiring for those of us who seek to blend in.

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Speaker 2: It's that way. We're doing a labradoodle in an owl.

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Speaker 2: That's how I would put it.

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Speaker 1: The frog mouth range's combination. You've ever suggested? What else

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Speaker 1: went well?

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Speaker 2: I mean, the cockatoos always do well, the Borden's black cockatoo,

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Speaker 2: the Gangang cockatoo, they came second and third. I know

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Speaker 2: nothing about birds, to be honest. But the Towny frog mouth,

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Speaker 2: I suppose I knew about that one because it is

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Speaker 2: such a famous bird. Taking out the title. Goodenough a

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Speaker 2: you tourneys.

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Speaker 1: Well done, Towney, that's a good result. Turning to international

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Speaker 1: news now, so after a very strange interlude, US President

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump has confirmed a report he authorized the CIA

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Speaker 1: to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela, provoking outrage from the

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Speaker 1: South American nations. Leaders.

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Speaker 2: According to The New York Times, Trump's authorization would allow

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Speaker 2: the CIA to carry out operations in Venezuela unilaterally or

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Speaker 2: as part of any wider US military activity. US forces

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Speaker 2: have already conducted at least five strikes on suspected drug

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Speaker 2: carrying boats in the Caribbean in recent weeks, killing twenty

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Speaker 2: seven people. The UN appointed human rights experts have described

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Speaker 2: the raids as extra judicial executions. According to the BBC,

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Speaker 2: speaking of the White House, Trump said the US is

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Speaker 2: looking at Land as it considers further strikes on drug

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Speaker 2: cartels in the region. Nicholas Maduro, whose legitimacy as Venezuela's

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Speaker 2: president is internationally contested after disputed elections n last year,

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Speaker 2: appealed on TV for peace with the US.

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Speaker 1: Finally shown some good news. We mentioned this at the

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Speaker 1: top of the show. Great news in fact, for chocolate lovers.

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Speaker 1: Cocoa prices have tumbled to a twenty month low, bringing

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Speaker 1: to an end a two year rally that had pushed

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Speaker 1: cocoa prices to record highs and then obviously put pressure

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Speaker 1: on chocolate prices, which is where it hurts all of us.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely. When you're in the supermarket, you're wandering down the aisle.

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Speaker 2: You're looking for your Cadbre's or your lean To or

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Speaker 2: maybe Whitman's. Oh really chocolate men, Yeah yeah, Whitman's totally yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well you know I've I've been traveling recently and on

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Speaker 2: my way home almost Belgium choks, you know, went to Bruges,

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Speaker 2: amazing chocks everywhere. Hagen's a big chocolate place.

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Speaker 1: Who knew? I bet you do. Now have you been sampling? Yes,

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Speaker 1: just a touch.

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Speaker 2: So Jack and I at the end of the day,

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Speaker 2: we always have a cup of tea and a chocolate.

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Speaker 2: That's just what we've always done to get all these

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Speaker 2: different global chocolates. At the end of the day, I

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Speaker 2: mean we are wild and crazy, going out partying and

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Speaker 2: finding ourselves at home by nine.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to say, when you are finishing your day

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Speaker 1: with a cup of tea and a chocolate, it is

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Speaker 1: that is peak middle aged right there, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Anyway, let's get under this story. New York Coco is

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Speaker 2: training at under six thousand US dollars a ton. What's

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Speaker 2: that mean. Well, it's half the level of about eighteen

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Speaker 2: months ago or December twenty four peak London, where prices

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Speaker 2: had almost tripled. They're now down about sixty percent from

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Speaker 2: a couple of years ago. The drop reflects a full

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Speaker 2: in consumer demand. And do you know why that happened?

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Speaker 2: Because prices went up. Consumer power right there, Michael, Prices

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Speaker 2: went up, people stopped buying chocolate. I love it. Speculators

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Speaker 2: who had previously been riding the rally have more recently

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Speaker 2: dumped their positions. Now they are betting on falling prices. Also,

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Speaker 2: expectations of better crops given improved weather and higher state

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Speaker 2: guaranteed prices in West Africa are helping so Ivory Coast

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Speaker 2: and Ghana together to produce about six percent of the

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Speaker 2: world's cocaine. Previously, like dry weather disease, years of underinvestment

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Speaker 2: had really hurt the sector. But now rains are returned,

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Speaker 2: better crops, people are refusing to buy chocolate at high prices.

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Speaker 2: The world is coming back into balance.

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Speaker 1: This is good news. Sean Up Next is fear and

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Speaker 1: greed Q and A. Today we're talking about the VIX index.

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Speaker 2: So the fact that we are talking about the VIX

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Speaker 2: index you and I gives the hint to the intellects

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Speaker 2: part the fear.

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Speaker 1: We give it our all we do. It's a bit

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Speaker 1: of an explainer, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, vix indict is really fascinating, otherwise known

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Speaker 2: as the Fear Index, very suitable for our podcast because

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Speaker 2: it's based on volatility in the market, and the VIX

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Speaker 2: index can really suggest what's going to happen, not so

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Speaker 2: much in six or three months time, but like in

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Speaker 2: coming weeks. So we explain how that works. People you know,

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Speaker 2: take punts on them based on the VIX index. Sorry,

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Speaker 2: invest based on the VIX Index the better way of

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Speaker 2: putting it. So, yeah, it's a really interesting investment indicator.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's coming up next in the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au, which is where you sign up for the

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Speaker 1: acclaimed Fear and Greed daily newsletter. You can do that, yeah,

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Speaker 1: acclaimed by us. You also do that in the show

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Speaker 1: notes for today's podcast. I'll put a link in there

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Speaker 1: so it's super easy to click through, pop your email addressing,

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Speaker 1: and bam, you're set.

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Speaker 2: Thanks very much, Sean, Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Friday, the seventeenth of October twenty twenty five. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online. On, LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson, and that was

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Speaker 1: fear and greed. Have a great day.