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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed business interview. I'm sure

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Speaker 1: nail them. The Australian economy grew by just zero point

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Speaker 1: two percent in the March quarter. The result was weaker

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Speaker 1: than economist had expected, and it resulted in the rate

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Speaker 1: for the twelve months at the end of March at

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Speaker 1: one point three percent. That was steady from three months earlier.

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Speaker 1: Sally Old is the chief economist at National Australia Bank. Sally,

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Speaker 1: welcome back to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thanks very much, Sean.

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Speaker 1: What did we learn out of yesterday's national accounts?

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Speaker 2: So? I think we learned that, you know, we are

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Speaker 2: going to have to lower our sights on I guess

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Speaker 2: the potential trajectory for the Australian economy through twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: We had started to sense that that was a likely

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Speaker 2: outcome maybe a month ago when we got the read

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Speaker 2: on where first quarter consumption partial data was headed and

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Speaker 2: it felt to us like it was tracking weaker than

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Speaker 2: we and the Reserve Bank had expected. And so I

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Speaker 2: guess today's number, which is disappointed in terms of where

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Speaker 2: we had our forecast earlier in the week, does suggest

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Speaker 2: that the economy is struggling to get up some genuine

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Speaker 2: momentum as we start twenty twenty five. But I would

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Speaker 2: caveat by that by saying that there were I guess

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Speaker 2: some unusual things going on in the quarter. A lot

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Speaker 2: of that was weather related, but also some funny things

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Speaker 2: in the way that the statistician compiles the national accounts

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Speaker 2: around how we account for electricity subsidies. So a lot

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Speaker 2: of one off's going on, and maybe these will wash

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Speaker 2: out as we move into the second quarter, but certainly

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Speaker 2: I think it tells us that we are in for

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Speaker 2: another year of sub trend growth here in Australia, albeit

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Speaker 2: growth that's a bit stronger than it was last year.

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Speaker 1: Just digging into some of the details, households, what sort

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Speaker 1: of state are they?

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Speaker 2: So household consumption went up by four tenths of a percent,

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Speaker 2: and on its own you would argue that that's a

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Speaker 2: relatively respectable outcome. But what actually happened in that quarter

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Speaker 2: was that electricity bills subsidies that were given by the

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Speaker 2: Queensland government basically ran out. And so the way that's

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Speaker 2: accounted for in the GDP figures as it means less

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Speaker 2: government consumption and a bit more household consumption and So

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Speaker 2: if you abstract for that effect and say, let's not

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Speaker 2: worry about consumption of energy, what did household spending do?

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Speaker 2: It was only up two tenths of a percent, so

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Speaker 2: actually quite a soft outcome in the quarter. And it's interesting,

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Speaker 2: it's a bit of a puzzle because if we look

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Speaker 2: at the fourth quarter of last year, the consumer did

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Speaker 2: quite well and it felt like, you know, whether it

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Speaker 2: was a tight labor market, or energy bill rebates or

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Speaker 2: Stage three tax cuts accumulating, and even just a narrative

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Speaker 2: that the Reserve Bank was finished hiking interest rates, all

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Speaker 2: those things seemed to give the consumer, I guess, some

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Speaker 2: confidence to go out there and spend. And we had

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Speaker 2: thought that, you know, most of those factors have sustained

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Speaker 2: into twenty twenty five, and we had a great cut

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Speaker 2: in the first quarter. But it does feel like consumers

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Speaker 2: have gone a little bit back into their shells, maybe

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Speaker 2: a little bit more cautious, and what we're really seeing

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Speaker 2: is a desired to maybe pay down debt, repair the

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Speaker 2: balance sheet, and save a little bit more.

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Speaker 1: Is there any sense of why that's the case. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it was pre Liberation Day tariffs the March quarter. Is

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Speaker 1: there a Trump effect you think.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure that it's a Trump effect, but we

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Speaker 2: do wonder whether, you know, we did go through a

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Speaker 2: period for a couple of years where real income's growth

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Speaker 2: in the household sector, you know, was really quite negative,

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Speaker 2: and that was because inflation rose by a lot and

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Speaker 2: people's incomes didn't rise anywhere near as much, and so

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Speaker 2: that was quite a difficult period for many households. And

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Speaker 2: I guess one explanation might be that the scarring from

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Speaker 2: that period, I guess has lasted a lot longer than

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Speaker 2: many of us anticipated, and that's what's encouraging or forcing

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Speaker 2: consumers to want to pay down a bit more debt

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Speaker 2: to get the balance sheet looking a little bit healthier.

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Speaker 2: And the way they're doing that is, you know, saving

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Speaker 2: those extra dollars as opposed to spending them.

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Speaker 1: What about business investment, that's sluggish, It seems.

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Speaker 2: It is a bit sluggish, and that's been I guess,

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Speaker 2: in a way one of the missing links in terms

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Speaker 2: of the overall growth trajectory here in Australia. And so

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Speaker 2: we have had this narrative, particularly for the last couple

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Speaker 2: of years, that a lot of the growth we've seen

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Speaker 2: has been driven by the public sector, so government investment,

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Speaker 2: government spending, and what we actually saw in the first

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Speaker 2: three months of this year is that narrative reversed a

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Speaker 2: little bit. So actually, government spending was a bit softer

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Speaker 2: in the quarter, and private spending, including consumption and also investment,

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Speaker 2: was a little bit stronger. Now I'm not sure how

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Speaker 2: sustainable that that turn is, because we did note that

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Speaker 2: the statistician said government spending was a bit weaker just

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Speaker 2: because some of these big public infrastructure projects or either

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Speaker 2: getting closer to completion or they experienced delays. And while

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Speaker 2: we're all sort of desperate to have a little bit

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Speaker 2: of reorientation in the economy away from public sector driven

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Speaker 2: growth towards private sector driven growth, I'm not sure even

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Speaker 2: though that's what we saw in the first three months

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Speaker 2: of twenty twenty five, that we're yet honest trajectory for

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Speaker 2: that story.

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Speaker 1: How worried should we be about per capita growth going backwards?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so per capita growth did go backwards again in

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Speaker 2: the quarter, and so what we're really saying is that

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Speaker 2: the growth in the economy in terms of the value

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Speaker 2: of goods and services that we produced was actually outpaced

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Speaker 2: by growth in population. And that's been I guess, a

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Speaker 2: reasonably familiar dynamic in the national accounts for a couple

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Speaker 2: of years now, and it's not really one that I

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Speaker 2: guess is overly favorable. But as population growth slows over

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Speaker 2: the next year and or two, which is effectively what

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Speaker 2: the government has in its numbers and it's what the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank is forecasting now, my sense is is that

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Speaker 2: that sort of less favorable aspect of the GDP numbers

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Speaker 2: should start to correct itself, and so it is quite possible,

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Speaker 2: I think that we might be near the end of

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Speaker 2: that narrative of negative per capita GDP growth.

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Speaker 1: Stay with me, Sally, we'll be back in a minute.

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Speaker 1: My guest this morning is National Australia Bank Chief economist

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Speaker 1: Sally Old. Productivity. One thing about national accounts. We could

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Speaker 1: all sorts of information on all sorts of economic variables.

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Speaker 1: Productivity is still a big issue in Australia.

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Speaker 2: Sally, Yes, that's right. So this has been I guess

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Speaker 2: again a perennial bugbear of the national accounts for the

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Speaker 2: last couple of years, where we just have had very

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Speaker 2: lackluster productivity performance and unfortunately for the first three months

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Speaker 2: of twenty twenty five. But story didn't get any better,

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Speaker 2: and productivity was flat in the quarter, so it didn't

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Speaker 2: go down, but then on the other hand, it didn't

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Speaker 2: go up. And when you actually look at a chart

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Speaker 2: of productivity growth, and we tend to measure that as

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Speaker 2: looking at GDP per hours worked across the economy, it's

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Speaker 2: basically been flat for the last couple of quarters, and

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Speaker 2: so it's telling you that, you know, productivity growth is

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Speaker 2: essentially going nowhere. And so I guess in that sense

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Speaker 2: that's part of the reason why we've got the negative

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Speaker 2: per capita GDP growth, because we're not really generating any

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Speaker 2: growth from using the inputs into production, whether that's capital

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Speaker 2: or labor more efficiently. So hopefully that might change in

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Speaker 2: coming years.

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Speaker 1: How much of a problem is the lack of business

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Speaker 1: investment or is there a lot more to it?

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Speaker 2: No, I think that is an issue for this economy

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Speaker 2: because you know, one of the dynamics that people talk

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Speaker 2: about at the moment is this notion of capital shallowing.

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Speaker 2: And so what's really going on in the Australian economy

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Speaker 2: is that the capital stock, So I guess the outstanding

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Speaker 2: stock of plant and equipment and anything else that businesses

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Speaker 2: use as an input into the production process has basically

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Speaker 2: when we look at it, per worker gone down, and

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Speaker 2: so for every worker that we add, we're not adding

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Speaker 2: more capital. And it means that you know, inaggregate, workers

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Speaker 2: are using less capital to do their job. And I

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Speaker 2: guess the sense is all they'll s equal. That's not

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Speaker 2: a great story for productivity because when we think about

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Speaker 2: how productivity often works in practice, it's like you take

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Speaker 2: an individual and you give them a good set of tools,

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Speaker 2: whether that's a computer or something else, and they can

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Speaker 2: become far more productive. And so this notion of capital shallowing,

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Speaker 2: I think is symptomatic of softness in business investment. But

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Speaker 2: it also, I think is one of the reasons why

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Speaker 2: you know, we're really failing to lift productivity grows.

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Speaker 1: Okay, now, last the Reserve Bank recently cut interest rates

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Speaker 1: twenty five basis points. You were one of the few

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Speaker 1: economists that suggested ahead of time that they should have

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Speaker 1: cut fifty bases points. Now in hindsight's twenty twenty obviously

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Speaker 1: they didn't, but it's amazing how many economists said, Wow,

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Speaker 1: they're a lot closer to fifty basis points than we realized.

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Speaker 1: So congratulations on that. Where do we go with rates,

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Speaker 1: so for the rest of this year.

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Speaker 2: So I think the one line summary would be that

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Speaker 2: rates are going lower. And the real reason for that is,

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Speaker 2: you know, as we talked about at the outset, it

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Speaker 2: does look like twenty twenty five will be another year

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Speaker 2: where the economy grows below trend, and so you know

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Speaker 2: what that typically means is that we will see a

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Speaker 2: bit of an upward drift in the unemployment rate from

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Speaker 2: the low falls to around the mid falls. And in

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Speaker 2: that content, the Reserve Bank would be very mindful of

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Speaker 2: not wanting to run what they would call restrictive monetary policy,

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Speaker 2: so they don't want interest rates at a level where

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Speaker 2: they're exerting a headwind on the overall economy. And so

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Speaker 2: I guess the real rationale for lower rates in coming

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Speaker 2: months it's just this idea that they need to get

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Speaker 2: sooner rather than later monetary policy back to a stance

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Speaker 2: that is, I guess, not a headwind but not necessarily

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Speaker 2: a stimulant to the overall economy. And we think that's

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Speaker 2: probably a cash rate in the low threes, so somewhere

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Speaker 2: between three three and a quarter. And so for that reason,

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Speaker 2: we have a forecast that they'll cut at their next

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Speaker 2: meeting in July, follow up with another one in August,

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Speaker 2: and then after a brief pause, deliver a final cut

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Speaker 2: for the year in November. So that'll give another seventy

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Speaker 2: five basis points of rate cuts. And I think should

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Speaker 2: see monetary policy far more appropriate given underlying fundamentals.

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Speaker 1: And so three point early threes is neutral monetary policy there.

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Speaker 1: How relevant is the Michelle Bullet Government Reserve Banks comments

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Speaker 1: after last rate cut about growth. There seemed to be

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Speaker 1: less emphasis on inflation, that's all we heard about. Suddenly

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Speaker 1: that last meeting, that last press conference, she starts talking

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Speaker 1: about growth a lot more. How important is that?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really important, and that I think, you know,

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Speaker 2: they did signal that May meeting would be a real

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Speaker 2: opportunity for them to have a bit of a rethink

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Speaker 2: about the outlook and about where policy is and where

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Speaker 2: it should go. And so one of the big shifts

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Speaker 2: they did make at that meeting was effectively saying that

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Speaker 2: they're now far more comfortable, far more competent, that inflation

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Speaker 2: is in the middle of that two to three percent

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Speaker 2: target band. And that's a huge shift in thinking from

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Speaker 2: them because they have spent the last couple of years,

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Speaker 2: you know, really worrying that inflation was too high and

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Speaker 2: worrying that they might not have done enough to get

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Speaker 2: it into that target band. So it was really, I

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Speaker 2: think quite significant that they are now far more assured

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Speaker 2: about the inflation outlook and because of that, that gives

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Speaker 2: them the opportunity to bring the other side of the

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Speaker 2: mandate into focus. And that's why, you know, in that

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Speaker 2: last paragraph of the statement they released in May, I said,

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Speaker 2: you know, we still care about inflation sustainably in that

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Speaker 2: two to three percent target van, but we're also mindful

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Speaker 2: in paying due attention to our full employment mandate. And

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Speaker 2: that's a far more balanced central bank in terms of

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Speaker 2: its focus than we've seen in the last couple of years.

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Speaker 1: Sally, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: A pleasure. Thanks Sean.

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Speaker 1: That was Sally Old, chief economist at National Australia Bank.

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Speaker 1: This is the Fear and Greed Business Interview. Join us

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Speaker 1: every morning for the full episode of Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: business news you can use. I'm Sean A. Elmer. I'm

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