1 00:00:03,350 --> 00:00:06,380 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. I'm Sean Aylmer. 2 00:00:06,740 --> 00:00:09,980 Sean Aylmer: It'll come as no surprise to find that business confidence 3 00:00:09,980 --> 00:00:13,220 Sean Aylmer: has taken a hit with COVID cases surging and Sydney 4 00:00:13,220 --> 00:00:17,119 Sean Aylmer: in lockdown. National Australia Bank's monthly business survey for June 5 00:00:17,300 --> 00:00:20,210 Sean Aylmer: was released yesterday confirming that New South Wales and Queensland 6 00:00:20,210 --> 00:00:24,260 Sean Aylmer: both experienced a decline in confidence. The survey coincided with 7 00:00:24,260 --> 00:00:26,840 Sean Aylmer: the first part of the Sydney lockdown, as well as 8 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,980 Sean Aylmer: state borders closing and COVID cases in Queensland, Western Australia 9 00:00:30,980 --> 00:00:33,800 Sean Aylmer: and Northern Territory. I wanted to look at the findings 10 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:35,390 Sean Aylmer: in more detail and see what it means for the 11 00:00:35,390 --> 00:00:39,140 Sean Aylmer: broader economy. Alan Oster is the NAB Group Chief Economist. Alan, 12 00:00:39,140 --> 00:00:40,280 Sean Aylmer: welcome back to Fear and Greed. 13 00:00:40,460 --> 00:00:40,700 Alan Oster: Thanks, Sean. 14 00:00:41,300 --> 00:00:43,400 Sean Aylmer: How big were the drops in business confidence? 15 00:00:44,330 --> 00:00:47,239 Alan Oster: Look, they were fairly large in the sense that the level of the 16 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:49,790 Alan Oster: index we have was plus 20 and it fell to 17 00:00:49,790 --> 00:00:54,440 Alan Oster: plus 11. However, in context, the long run average is about 18 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:58,130 Alan Oster: plus five. So it's still OK. It's just that one 19 00:00:58,130 --> 00:01:00,980 Alan Oster: of the things you did see was a really big 20 00:01:00,980 --> 00:01:04,190 Alan Oster: drop in confidence in New South Wales that fell about 21 00:01:04,190 --> 00:01:08,929 Alan Oster: 18 points to five. And also what you saw is 22 00:01:08,930 --> 00:01:13,700 Alan Oster: what we call recreation, personal services, so think hospitality, that was 23 00:01:13,700 --> 00:01:15,110 Alan Oster: a really big fall as well. 24 00:01:15,540 --> 00:01:19,460 Sean Aylmer: So based on long term averages things, businesses are still reasonable. 25 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:20,550 Alan Oster: Things are still OK. 26 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:21,300 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. Yeah, OK. 27 00:01:21,350 --> 00:01:23,960 Alan Oster: Yeah. And it was interesting because when you look at 28 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:26,690 Alan Oster: New South Wales, the other thing you saw was business 29 00:01:26,690 --> 00:01:29,929 Alan Oster: outcomes or what we call business conditions didn't change. So 30 00:01:29,930 --> 00:01:33,140 Alan Oster: you did get this really different reaction and it's worth 31 00:01:33,140 --> 00:01:35,270 Alan Oster: actually contrasting that to Victoria. 32 00:01:35,390 --> 00:01:35,709 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 33 00:01:35,750 --> 00:01:38,330 Alan Oster: So the first half of June, Victoria was actually locked 34 00:01:38,330 --> 00:01:41,660 Alan Oster: down and so business outcomes in Victoria for June were 35 00:01:41,660 --> 00:01:44,569 Alan Oster: pretty poor. But by about I think it was about 36 00:01:44,569 --> 00:01:46,970 Alan Oster: the 11th of June, then Victoria got out of it 37 00:01:47,390 --> 00:01:50,330 Alan Oster: and confidence went through the roof. So you do get 38 00:01:50,330 --> 00:01:54,620 Alan Oster: these sort of short term impacts provided that the lockdowns 39 00:01:54,620 --> 00:01:58,220 Alan Oster: don't last too long. What you typically find is you 40 00:01:58,220 --> 00:01:59,600 Alan Oster: come out the other side pretty good. 41 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:02,330 Sean Aylmer: Is it a rule of thumb of how long you 42 00:02:02,330 --> 00:02:04,130 Sean Aylmer: don't want to lock down to last before it actually 43 00:02:04,220 --> 00:02:06,470 Sean Aylmer: really does make a real impact on the economy? 44 00:02:06,950 --> 00:02:09,500 Alan Oster: Well, what we found in the past is when we 45 00:02:09,500 --> 00:02:14,030 Alan Oster: have lockdowns, consumption and roughly GDP drop about 10 per cent. 46 00:02:14,419 --> 00:02:18,470 Alan Oster: So then you just start doing some arithmetic. So there's 47 00:02:18,650 --> 00:02:22,310 Alan Oster: 12 weeks in a quarter. So let's say they're three weeks, 48 00:02:22,669 --> 00:02:26,190 Alan Oster: then you take that three out of 12 multiplied by 49 00:02:26,210 --> 00:02:29,660 Alan Oster: minus 10, and you get roughly the impact of the 50 00:02:29,660 --> 00:02:33,720 Alan Oster: fall in, say, New South Wales. And then you multiply 51 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:37,790 Alan Oster: it by about 0.35, which is essentially the size of 52 00:02:37,790 --> 00:02:40,580 Alan Oster: New South Wales relative to the rest of Australia and 53 00:02:40,580 --> 00:02:43,940 Alan Oster: you get a drop of about 0.7, but it depends 54 00:02:43,940 --> 00:02:45,530 Alan Oster: on how long it lasts. So if it's going to 55 00:02:45,530 --> 00:02:48,470 Alan Oster: last a couple of months, well, what had happened in 56 00:02:48,470 --> 00:02:51,490 Alan Oster: Melbourne last year, then it really can have a big impact. 57 00:02:51,889 --> 00:02:54,710 Alan Oster: The other issue that I think is important to think 58 00:02:54,710 --> 00:02:59,329 Alan Oster: about now is this is occurring at a time when 59 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:03,170 Alan Oster: essentially there's no JobKeeper. I know the government talks about 60 00:03:03,169 --> 00:03:07,010 Alan Oster: helping out, et cetera. They're not putting JobKeeper back. And we have 61 00:03:07,010 --> 00:03:11,210 Alan Oster: seen in Victoria in our own internal data some signs 62 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,990 Alan Oster: that maybe the unemployment rate in Victoria has moved up 63 00:03:14,990 --> 00:03:18,350 Alan Oster: a bit and that maybe some firms, it's sort of 64 00:03:18,350 --> 00:03:20,930 Alan Oster: like the straw that broke the camel's back. So that's 65 00:03:20,930 --> 00:03:22,040 Alan Oster: the other one you've got to watch. 66 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:25,940 Sean Aylmer: The actual index itself has a number of different measures 67 00:03:25,940 --> 00:03:26,240 Sean Aylmer: in it. 68 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:26,600 Alan Oster: Yeah. 69 00:03:26,690 --> 00:03:28,570 Sean Aylmer: What are the ones that are of most interest in, 70 00:03:28,580 --> 00:03:30,919 Sean Aylmer: particularly with relation to New South Wales, but the general 71 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:31,760 Sean Aylmer: national economy? 72 00:03:32,090 --> 00:03:35,030 Alan Oster: Well, I always think the one that is the most important 73 00:03:35,030 --> 00:03:37,790 Alan Oster: as a leading indicator of where the economy's going is 74 00:03:37,790 --> 00:03:41,480 Alan Oster: forward orders and then also business conditions is much more 75 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:45,410 Alan Oster: reliable than business confidence that can be bounced up and bounce 76 00:03:45,410 --> 00:03:48,830 Alan Oster: down really quickly. But if you talk about business conditions, 77 00:03:48,830 --> 00:03:52,670 Alan Oster: they were incredibly high at 36 and they're now 24 78 00:03:53,210 --> 00:03:56,090 Alan Oster: and forward orders was 25 and it is now 17. 79 00:03:56,280 --> 00:04:00,050 Alan Oster: So again, all of these measures are above low on average, 80 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:03,320 Alan Oster: it's just that some sectors that are sort of taking 81 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:05,360 Alan Oster: a bit of a more of a beating than some 82 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,810 Alan Oster: other sectors. And so I see those as important. Capacity 83 00:04:08,810 --> 00:04:14,090 Alan Oster: utilisation on average is about 81, it's currently around about 83, 84 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:17,419 Alan Oster: but it was 85. So those sort of indicators do 85 00:04:17,420 --> 00:04:20,300 Alan Oster: tend to tell you that the momentum of the economy 86 00:04:20,300 --> 00:04:23,510 Alan Oster: has started to slow, but it's still doing OK. So 87 00:04:23,510 --> 00:04:27,530 Alan Oster: I looked through that survey and I say, well, provided 88 00:04:27,529 --> 00:04:30,610 Alan Oster: that you don't get a lot of spread and a 89 00:04:30,620 --> 00:04:34,099 Alan Oster: really long lockdown, the economy overall is still going to be pretty strong. 90 00:04:34,100 --> 00:04:37,970 Alan Oster: So we still think GDP in this calendar year will 91 00:04:37,970 --> 00:04:41,089 Alan Oster: probably be up around five per cent. We think unemployment will 92 00:04:41,089 --> 00:04:43,880 Alan Oster: probably go sideways for a little while, but then by 93 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:46,400 Alan Oster: the end of the year, maybe 4.8. And then I 94 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:49,250 Alan Oster: think the economy in the next couple of years sort 95 00:04:49,250 --> 00:04:51,710 Alan Oster: of slows a bit, but is still okay. And so we 96 00:04:51,710 --> 00:04:55,550 Alan Oster: have growth of around two and a bit towards 2023 97 00:04:56,150 --> 00:04:58,340 Alan Oster: and we have an unemployment rate in the low fours 98 00:04:58,339 --> 00:04:59,929 Alan Oster: like4.2 by the end of it. 99 00:05:00,630 --> 00:05:03,179 Sean Aylmer: You've been watching the economy for a long time, Alan, has it 100 00:05:03,180 --> 00:05:05,690 Sean Aylmer: surprised you exactly what's happened in the last 12 months? 101 00:05:06,110 --> 00:05:10,710 Alan Oster: Sure has. The extent of the decline last year was petrifying. 102 00:05:10,750 --> 00:05:14,130 Alan Oster: It's just awful. And the extent of the bounce back 103 00:05:14,130 --> 00:05:17,820 Alan Oster: was amazing. So we have had one of the biggest Vs 104 00:05:17,820 --> 00:05:20,400 Alan Oster: ( V-shaped recovery) of all time. Sure, we're doing a lot better than offshore, 105 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:23,520 Alan Oster: but it's still it's clearly the worst recession we've had 106 00:05:23,670 --> 00:05:26,310 Alan Oster: outside of the Great Depression. But in some ways, it's 107 00:05:26,310 --> 00:05:30,029 Alan Oster: not really a recession. It's sort of a lockdown associated 108 00:05:30,029 --> 00:05:33,239 Alan Oster: with health. So when the economy turns around, I think 109 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:36,210 Alan Oster: you've got to say government's done really well. I won't say they've 110 00:05:36,210 --> 00:05:40,289 Alan Oster: done really well in the vaccine rollout. But they have 111 00:05:40,290 --> 00:05:42,839 Alan Oster: done really well in keeping the economy pretty well. And 112 00:05:43,170 --> 00:05:47,820 Alan Oster: I think from a longer term perspective, once we reopen 113 00:05:47,820 --> 00:05:49,950 Alan Oster: and we get our vaccines, et cetera, I think a 114 00:05:49,950 --> 00:05:52,020 Alan Oster: lot of people will say, well, Australia didn't have the 115 00:05:52,020 --> 00:05:55,109 Alan Oster: damage that a lot of other countries had. It's a 116 00:05:55,110 --> 00:05:57,870 Alan Oster: good place to employ. A good place to invest. A good 117 00:05:57,870 --> 00:06:00,060 Alan Oster: place to live. So I think the economy in the 118 00:06:00,060 --> 00:06:01,500 Alan Oster: medium term is still going to be pretty good. 119 00:06:01,830 --> 00:06:03,450 Sean Aylmer: What about the Reserve Bank's performance? 120 00:06:04,860 --> 00:06:06,779 Alan Oster: They're almost our regulator, so I don't say a lot 121 00:06:06,779 --> 00:06:07,260 Alan Oster: about that. 122 00:06:07,589 --> 00:06:09,890 Sean Aylmer: Look, we love them. We think they've done a tremendous job. 123 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:13,790 Alan Oster: All right! Look, I think their growth forecasts are too optimistic. 124 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,740 Alan Oster: So we're five, but they're a lot higher than that. I 125 00:06:16,740 --> 00:06:21,030 Alan Oster: can see why they aren't going to increase rates any 126 00:06:21,029 --> 00:06:23,520 Alan Oster: time for a really long time. So we're one of 127 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:28,770 Alan Oster: the few houses, although other people are coming back to us, that have basically still got 2024 as 128 00:06:28,770 --> 00:06:32,370 Alan Oster: the first increase in interest rates. And there's two fundamental 129 00:06:32,370 --> 00:06:35,130 Alan Oster: reasons for that. Sure, we can see wages picking up 130 00:06:35,130 --> 00:06:37,550 Alan Oster: in the short term. We can see inflation being higher in 131 00:06:37,779 --> 00:06:41,250 Alan Oster: the short term, but it's not permanent. And to basically 132 00:06:41,250 --> 00:06:47,400 Alan Oster: get inflation up, you need wages, probably around four, maybe 4.2 133 00:06:47,670 --> 00:06:51,210 Alan Oster: might start it. And so that's not until late 2023. 134 00:06:51,750 --> 00:06:55,020 Alan Oster: And the Reserve Bank has always been what they call 135 00:06:55,050 --> 00:06:59,159 Alan Oster: a forward looking inflation targeter. It's not anymore. It's saying 136 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:01,020 Alan Oster: for the last four or five years we've been aiming 137 00:07:01,020 --> 00:07:03,120 Alan Oster: for two and a half and we've never got it above two. 138 00:07:03,330 --> 00:07:06,870 Alan Oster: So this time we're going to wait until we actually 139 00:07:06,870 --> 00:07:09,929 Alan Oster: see the runs on the board. And so if they're 140 00:07:09,930 --> 00:07:13,290 Alan Oster: doing that, they're probably waiting to 2024. And so I 141 00:07:13,290 --> 00:07:16,650 Alan Oster: basically don't have a problem that they're throwing the kitchen sink, 142 00:07:16,650 --> 00:07:20,760 Alan Oster: if you like, at the economy. But in some ways, 143 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:23,160 Alan Oster: their kitchen sink is a lot smaller than the kitchen 144 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:26,640 Alan Oster: sink called fiscal policy. And fiscal policy is what works 145 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:29,520 Alan Oster: because what we saw last year was the private sector 146 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,850 Alan Oster: was just terrified and absolutely nobody was going to invest 147 00:07:32,850 --> 00:07:35,280 Alan Oster: in that sort of environment. So you needed the government 148 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:37,650 Alan Oster: to spend the money and they did. And they were 149 00:07:37,650 --> 00:07:39,720 Alan Oster: really important in sort of getting us through it. 150 00:07:40,140 --> 00:07:42,390 Sean Aylmer: And you think they'll keep spending at least until after 151 00:07:42,390 --> 00:07:43,080 Sean Aylmer: the next election? 152 00:07:43,500 --> 00:07:45,690 Alan Oster: I think they will. I mean, we were surprised when 153 00:07:45,690 --> 00:07:48,480 Alan Oster: the budget came out. We were expecting much faster repair 154 00:07:48,870 --> 00:07:52,350 Alan Oster: and basically anything that the economy gave them in terms 155 00:07:52,350 --> 00:07:54,840 Alan Oster: of better outcomes they spent. 156 00:07:55,020 --> 00:07:55,280 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 157 00:07:55,410 --> 00:07:57,930 Alan Oster: So, you know, you're going to have deficits for ages. 158 00:07:58,230 --> 00:08:02,760 Alan Oster: And also their trajectory that they've talked about does not 159 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:06,600 Alan Oster: include the election campaign. And I can't believe the government's 160 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:08,870 Alan Oster: going to go to an election campaign and not spend any money. 161 00:08:09,270 --> 00:08:11,850 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. Stay with me, Alan. We'll be back in a minute. 162 00:08:16,810 --> 00:08:20,140 Sean Aylmer: My guest this morning is NAB Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster. 163 00:08:20,650 --> 00:08:22,900 Sean Aylmer: Another thing that you've spoken about recently was house prices, 164 00:08:22,900 --> 00:08:25,890 Sean Aylmer: and you're quite optimistic in terms of what house prices 165 00:08:25,900 --> 00:08:27,100 Sean Aylmer: do in the next couple of years. 166 00:08:27,550 --> 00:08:31,270 Alan Oster: Yeah, we have. I mean, 12 months ago, we were terrified. Why? 167 00:08:31,270 --> 00:08:35,350 Alan Oster: Because the population growth didn't grow. It was going to halve basically, 168 00:08:35,350 --> 00:08:37,870 Alan Oster: and we were worried about really high levels of unemployment. 169 00:08:38,350 --> 00:08:43,150 Alan Oster: Unemployment's now below where we were when the virus came 170 00:08:43,150 --> 00:08:45,970 Alan Oster: along and we expect it to go lower. But more importantly, 171 00:08:46,420 --> 00:08:50,200 Alan Oster: two things, people working from home. So I'm not optimistic 172 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:54,400 Alan Oster: about CBD apartments and places like that. I am optimistic 173 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:57,390 Alan Oster: about basically where people live as long as they've got 174 00:08:57,390 --> 00:09:00,400 Alan Oster: good Internet. And then the other thing is interest rates 175 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:02,530 Alan Oster: are so low and they're going to be low for 176 00:09:02,530 --> 00:09:04,900 Alan Oster: a really long time. About 50 per cent of the 177 00:09:04,900 --> 00:09:09,790 Alan Oster: flow of loans at present is fixed. Most of the 178 00:09:09,790 --> 00:09:13,900 Alan Oster: flow is owner occupied. And what the dynamic that's really 179 00:09:13,900 --> 00:09:16,630 Alan Oster: different is if you look at a property these days, 180 00:09:17,020 --> 00:09:19,270 Alan Oster: you can either buy it or rent it and it's actually 181 00:09:19,270 --> 00:09:21,430 Alan Oster: cheaper to buy it and mortgage it. 182 00:09:21,970 --> 00:09:22,210 Sean Aylmer: Yeah, right. 183 00:09:22,210 --> 00:09:24,910 Alan Oster: And that's really, really unusual. And so that's why we see 184 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:29,020 Alan Oster: a lot of owner occupiers driving everything. It's not a 185 00:09:29,050 --> 00:09:31,810 Alan Oster: house price boom that's driven by credit. And so you 186 00:09:31,809 --> 00:09:34,060 Alan Oster: don't see a lot of investors. You see no foreigners. 187 00:09:34,210 --> 00:09:37,450 Alan Oster: And so, therefore, I can see well, based on what 188 00:09:37,450 --> 00:09:39,550 Alan Oster: we've already got, we've got something like the best part 189 00:09:39,550 --> 00:09:42,280 Alan Oster: of 20 per cent this year and then something more 190 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:44,839 Alan Oster: like three to five in the next couple of years. 191 00:09:44,860 --> 00:09:47,589 Alan Oster: So you put that together, you get close to 30 192 00:09:47,590 --> 00:09:51,670 Alan Oster: per cent over three years. But the big adjustment has been recently. 193 00:09:51,670 --> 00:09:54,670 Alan Oster: And so don't expect your house prices to go another 194 00:09:54,670 --> 00:09:56,790 Alan Oster: 10 per cent each year for the next three years. 195 00:09:56,950 --> 00:10:01,720 Alan Oster: They will not. Essentially affordability will cause problems. And if 196 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:05,170 Alan Oster: the house prices keep going at the current rate, not 197 00:10:05,170 --> 00:10:07,660 Alan Oster: so much the Reserve Bank on interest rates, but macro 198 00:10:07,660 --> 00:10:10,300 Alan Oster: prudential tools will come in. In other words, things like 199 00:10:10,660 --> 00:10:14,110 Alan Oster: you need a much larger deposit to get a loan 200 00:10:14,110 --> 00:10:15,790 Alan Oster: out of a bank, or they'll have what they call 201 00:10:15,790 --> 00:10:18,970 Alan Oster: debt to income ratios where let's say it's five, it 202 00:10:18,970 --> 00:10:20,890 Alan Oster: means you've got 100 grand, you can borrow five hundred, 203 00:10:20,890 --> 00:10:23,110 Alan Oster: but you can't borrow six hundred. So I think it 204 00:10:23,110 --> 00:10:26,380 Alan Oster: will slow, but not because rates are going up. 205 00:10:26,620 --> 00:10:28,570 Sean Aylmer: One final thing, which I always like to ask any 206 00:10:28,570 --> 00:10:30,400 Sean Aylmer: decent economist. Migration. 207 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:30,780 Alan Oster: Yeah. 208 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:33,160 Sean Aylmer: How should we think about that? Because we don't have it. 209 00:10:33,490 --> 00:10:34,600 Sean Aylmer: How much will that hurt us? 210 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:38,800 Alan Oster: It hurts us in some ways, in some sectors. And 211 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:40,840 Alan Oster: so you see it in the CBD, you see it 212 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:44,620 Alan Oster: in anything that's got international tourism. But one thing to 213 00:10:44,620 --> 00:10:49,179 Alan Oster: remember is for every foreigner who is not coming here, 214 00:10:49,390 --> 00:10:52,450 Alan Oster: there's three Aussies who are not going over there. And 215 00:10:52,450 --> 00:10:55,630 Alan Oster: so in the short term, actually, it doesn't hurt us. 216 00:10:55,630 --> 00:10:58,990 Alan Oster: It changes the distribution. What hurts us is through the 217 00:10:58,990 --> 00:11:02,440 Alan Oster: education system because the students actually also come in and 218 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:05,440 Alan Oster: spend money. But in the short term, what tends to 219 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:09,220 Alan Oster: happen is people either stay within the state and spend 220 00:11:09,220 --> 00:11:11,319 Alan Oster: it there, or if it's too hard and you've got 221 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:13,730 Alan Oster: rings of steel like we had in Melbourne, you know, 222 00:11:13,809 --> 00:11:16,780 Alan Oster: six months ago, you spent it in the shops. So 223 00:11:16,780 --> 00:11:19,750 Alan Oster: I think it affects the distribution. I'm not sure it 224 00:11:19,750 --> 00:11:22,750 Alan Oster: affects the overall GDP, but in the short term, it 225 00:11:22,750 --> 00:11:27,280 Alan Oster: might mean that there's less people available and therefore wages 226 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:29,829 Alan Oster: might go up and unemployment might come down a bit 227 00:11:29,830 --> 00:11:32,830 Alan Oster: quicker than you would previously expect. But it's not permanent. 228 00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:35,050 Sean Aylmer: Do we ever get back to normal, do you think? 229 00:11:35,540 --> 00:11:38,020 Alan Oster: I would hope so, but I think you need a 230 00:11:38,020 --> 00:11:43,179 Alan Oster: vaccine that works and everybody agrees with it and then 231 00:11:43,179 --> 00:11:46,150 Alan Oster: we start thinking about it. But I do think there's 232 00:11:46,150 --> 00:11:49,660 Alan Oster: a big adjustment process in CBDs. I'm not sure you'll 233 00:11:49,660 --> 00:11:52,420 Alan Oster: ever get people working five days a week all the 234 00:11:52,420 --> 00:11:55,060 Alan Oster: time in the CBD going forward. I just don't see that. 235 00:11:55,540 --> 00:11:57,210 Sean Aylmer: Allan, thanks for talking to Fear and Greed. 236 00:11:57,460 --> 00:11:58,040 Alan Oster: Thank you, Sean. 237 00:11:58,300 --> 00:12:01,460 Sean Aylmer: That was Alan Oster, National Australia Bank Group Chief Economist. 238 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:03,910 Sean Aylmer: This is a Fear and Greed Daily Interview. Join me 239 00:12:03,910 --> 00:12:06,130 Sean Aylmer: every morning for the full Fear and Greed podcast with 240 00:12:06,130 --> 00:12:08,620 Sean Aylmer: all the business news you need to know. I'm Sean Aylmer. 241 00:12:09,220 --> 00:12:10,030 Sean Aylmer: Enjoy your day.