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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Several key commodities are on a run, with surges in

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Speaker 1: the prices of gold, silver, iron ore, rare earths and uranium,

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Speaker 1: The Reserve Bank cautious about further interest rate cuts, and

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Speaker 1: Australia will begin manufacturing missiles. Plus are the supermarkets heading

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Speaker 1: towards a price war and the run up to Christmas

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Speaker 1: and Taylor Swift's latest album Smashes More Records. It is Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: the fifteenth of October twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael Sewan.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning several key commodity prices are

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Speaker 1: on a run, with record high prices for gold and

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Speaker 1: silver and a new peak for iron ore, as well

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Speaker 1: as surging interest in rare earths and uranium, pushing local

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Speaker 1: mining stocks higher. It's been a heck of a twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours.

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Speaker 3: It sure has all about investor risk, appetite rising after

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Speaker 3: President Donald Trump's administration signaled an openness to a deal

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Speaker 3: with Beijing to dampen trade tensions. Meanwhile, China's Ministry of

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Speaker 3: Commerce urged further negotiations to resolve outstanding issues, put those together,

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Speaker 3: and hot commodity prices Michael. Starting close to home, iron

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Speaker 3: ore prices it training over one hundred and nine US

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Speaker 3: dollars a ton, the highest level since February, sending the

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Speaker 3: share prices of the local miners higher. Chinese steel production

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Speaker 3: the first nine months of the year was up four

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Speaker 3: percent on last year. Steel exports are up nine percent. Also,

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Speaker 3: new figure show global demand for steel steady. All that

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Speaker 3: information boosted the price of or spot gold pushed beyond

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Speaker 3: four thou one hundred and nine US dollars an ounce

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Speaker 3: on the back of the US China trade tensions and

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Speaker 3: the big gold miners Newmont, Northern Star Evolution, Genesis Minerals

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Speaker 3: all rows Silver prices this is the exciting one touched

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Speaker 3: an all time high above fifty two dollars and fifty

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Speaker 3: US fifty two dollars fifty US announce, fueled by surging

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Speaker 3: demand for sayeavor and assets. Silver last reached these levels

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Speaker 3: Michael back in nineteen eighty. It's one of the few

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Speaker 3: commodities where the peak of the commodities boom, the seventies

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Speaker 3: eighties commodity boom hadn't yet been beaten. Well it has today.

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Speaker 3: That is exciting, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: I wasn't even alive when they hit that when they

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Speaker 1: hit that level shown, I mean you were, I wasn't.

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Speaker 3: I was absolutely remember it. Well, well I don't remember

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Speaker 3: it at all, but I'm going to pretend. So a

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Speaker 3: bunch of the silver miners, you know, silver mines, Son, Silver,

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Speaker 3: Andy and silver. You know, our silver mines really know

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Speaker 3: how to name themselves. They put the word silver in

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Speaker 3: their name.

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Speaker 1: It's helpful.

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Speaker 2: They're doing well too, very helpful. That's it.

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Speaker 1: That is a heck of a story. And they're the

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Speaker 1: better known commodities. But away from those, the uranium sector

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Speaker 1: went on to run yesterday as well. It was just

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Speaker 1: this was just an incredible day.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Look, Uranian prices are probably about fifteen percent off their

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Speaker 3: highs of eighteen months ago, though in recent weeks they've

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Speaker 3: searched again. Yesterday, Paladine Energy's quarterly production reports showed that

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Speaker 3: their ramp up of a mine in the Ambia continues.

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Speaker 3: That pushed their price higher. So then that kind of

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Speaker 3: triggered a run on deep Yellow Benerman Boss Energy rare

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Speaker 3: earths minus they've been surging too now rare earths, of course,

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Speaker 3: the primarily used in electric vehicles and defense equipment. China

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Speaker 3: has imposed restrictions and rare earths. That's helping all the

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Speaker 3: other rare earths like the Australian companies. Also yesterday, Brazilian

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Speaker 3: rare earths jumped seven percent after ginner Reinhart, a Gina

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Speaker 3: right heart company announced it had phrased one hundred and

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Speaker 3: twenty million dollars as it seeks to develop a new project.

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Speaker 3: So plenty going on in rare earths, Plenty going on

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Speaker 3: across the commodity sector, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Was there anything else happening on the AX yesterday, Sean?

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Speaker 1: Or is that really all that matters?

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Speaker 3: All that matter? That's all that matters, Michael. You know,

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Speaker 3: the SPA SX two hundred closed up just to touch

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Speaker 3: to just under eighty nine hundred points. The resource of

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Speaker 3: stocks did well, obviously, we went through that pretty much

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Speaker 3: everyone else didn't. The bank's fell, retailers fell, consumer discretionary

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Speaker 3: stocks fell. So not a lot going on outside commodities.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's talk interest rates, Sean. The Reserve Bank Board

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Speaker 1: is in no hurry to cut rates, and any further

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Speaker 1: changes in monetary policy will depend on data releases, notwithstanding

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Speaker 1: current rates settings are slowing the economy somewhat.

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Speaker 3: That's the key takeout from the release of the Reserve

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Speaker 3: Bank Board minutes yesterday. The Board judge the labor market

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Speaker 3: still a little tight and doesn't expect much change in

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Speaker 3: the short term, but hot at it. Then expected monthly

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Speaker 3: inflation figures for July and August concerned board members.

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Speaker 2: In particular.

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Speaker 3: They highlighted stronger than expected price growth and so called

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Speaker 3: market services catering, dog grooming, those types of things, as

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Speaker 3: well as the cost of building new homes. These trends,

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Speaker 3: the Mints note suggests the new September quarterly inflation data,

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Speaker 3: set for release at the end of this month, which

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Speaker 3: is just before the November four Reserve Bank Board meeting,

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Speaker 3: those figures might be higher than the staff had expected,

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Speaker 3: and maybe the Reserve banks misjudging the underlying strength of

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Speaker 3: the Australian economy. That not fighting words for people wanting

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Speaker 3: to cut interest rates. Michael financial markets have now our

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Speaker 3: priced in a less than fifty percent chance of a

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Speaker 3: rate cut at next month's board meeting.

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Speaker 1: Now, business confidence rebounded in September sean climbing three points

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Speaker 1: to sit above its long run average after really a

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Speaker 1: wobble in August. It's a technical term that, yeah.

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Speaker 2: It is a technical term. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Look, this National Australia Bank Business Sediment survey is pretty

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Speaker 3: good really, although sort of there are some worrying concerns

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Speaker 3: beneath the service of the surface. Business conditions remain flat

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Speaker 3: as gains improfitability are offset by weaker employment. Forward orders

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Speaker 3: dropped three points to slip into negative territory. That's not

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Speaker 3: so good, but National Australia Bank Chief economist Sally Old

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Speaker 3: said overall, the survey shows that the economy has held

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Speaker 3: onto the better momentum from the June quarter into the

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Speaker 3: September quarter. Improving conditions in mining, manufacturing, construction and transport

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Speaker 3: and utilities were offset by softening in conditioned conditions in

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Speaker 3: the services sector retail and wholesale.

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Speaker 1: Seawn, It's my favorite time of the week. It is Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: It is time for business by numbers. The top three

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Speaker 1: numbers to know for the week brought to you by

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Speaker 1: zero zero dot com slash au. Give us the first

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Speaker 1: number one from your youth.

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Speaker 3: How how can you go past fifty two dollars and

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Speaker 3: fifty us since announce the price of silver resetting the

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Speaker 3: high that was last reached in nineteen eighty.

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Speaker 1: Number two. What's the second number?

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Speaker 3: Forty four percent? What markets have priced in as a

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Speaker 3: chance of a rate cunt in November? A little disappointing

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Speaker 3: or all hoping for a rate cunt. I'm not so

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Speaker 3: sure now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it doesn't look good. Last one, Number three? What

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Speaker 1: is it?

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Speaker 2: Four million? We'll get to this story.

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Speaker 3: That's the sales of Taylor Swift's The Life of a

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Speaker 3: Show Girl in the first week of releasing the US

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Speaker 3: new record.

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Speaker 1: That not too shabby? Okay, quick break back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news saw

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Speaker 1: in Australia will begin manufacturing missiles domestically by the end

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Speaker 1: of this year, with the announcement coming days ahead of

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Aberanese's meeting with US President Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: No coincidence there, Perhaps it isn't n I don't know.

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Speaker 3: The announcement came as part of a joint statement of

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Speaker 3: Intent Australia signed alongside the US and Lockheed Martin to

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Speaker 3: establish a sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise in Australia,

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Speaker 3: something we've always wanted. Defense industry Minister pat Conroy said

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Speaker 3: the goal is to have a missile factory that can

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Speaker 3: produce up to four thousand guided multiple launch rocket system missiles.

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Speaker 2: Whatever they are.

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Speaker 3: The capacity of the factory would exceed Australia's requirements and

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Speaker 3: could eventually support the needs of the US or other partners.

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Speaker 1: Now, how about this one, This is quite something. Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister Anthony Abernese's personal phone number has been leaked online,

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Speaker 1: along with the contact details for opposition leader Susan Lee.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned this in the Afternoon Report yesterday, but there

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Speaker 1: was also so it went well beyond Australian numbers, US

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Speaker 1: President Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel mccron. Basically, if your

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Speaker 1: number wasn't on this list, then you're a nobody.

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Speaker 3: The phone numbers were published by a US based website,

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Speaker 3: according to ED Media, who shared a video in which

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Speaker 3: Alberanzi's personal number was called. The pen's voicemail apparently says, hi,

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Speaker 3: you wrung Anthony Alberizi, If this is a personal call,

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Speaker 3: leave a message like it. According to the AFI, the

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Speaker 3: Prime Minister's office is aware of the breach and is

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Speaker 3: currently working with authorities to keep Albo's number private. The

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Speaker 3: phone numbers for former Prime Minister Scott Morrison and New

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Speaker 3: South Wales Premier Chris Mins are also among the details

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Speaker 3: leaked online.

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Speaker 1: Now sean we might not be getting an interest rate

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Speaker 1: cut before Christmas, but we could be getting lower grocery

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Speaker 1: price as a price war in the supermarket sector might

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Speaker 1: be coming ahead of the festive season, with Colds chief

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Speaker 1: executive le Or work At saying she will do whatever

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Speaker 1: it takes to remain competitive with rival Wilworth. Those are

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Speaker 1: fighting words, those are.

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Speaker 2: They are their speculation.

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Speaker 3: Woolies wants to intensify their price war in a bid

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Speaker 3: to win back market share. Now in August, Wooli said

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Speaker 3: it would invest one hundred million dollars in lower prices

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Speaker 3: as it tries to withstand competition from Coal's, Aldi Costco

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Speaker 3: Amazon throw them into it. At the moment, Wickets Coals

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Speaker 3: is winning the battle with supermarket sales growth of four

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Speaker 3: point nine percent for the first couple of months of

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Speaker 3: this financial year. Wollies is at two point one percent,

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Speaker 3: so Coal's is winning, but we think Woolies is going

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Speaker 3: to have a crack at them. Wicketts said Coal's intentions

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Speaker 3: to remain competitive and relevant to customers and will do

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Speaker 3: whatever it needs to do on prices. Now, Woolies and

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Speaker 3: Coals still have a price premium to Aldi, though it

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Speaker 3: is narrowing. Coal's price cuts have been evident in a

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Speaker 3: bunch of categories sausages, beef, chicken, salmon, frozen pizza and

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Speaker 3: olive oil. Woolworths has expanded its lower shelf price program

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Speaker 3: in the past month from four hundred to seven hundred

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Speaker 3: items as it tries to lure back shoppers. So a

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Speaker 3: bit of a price war in the right up to

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Speaker 3: Christmas good news for consumers.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely now it seeks. Latest Pulse check on job ads

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Speaker 1: in the market Sean shows that working from home remains

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Speaker 1: very popular in the insurance sector as well as tech

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Speaker 1: and consulting.

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Speaker 3: Does this reflect your co workers? I haven't thought of

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Speaker 3: this until this moment, so like, I'm making it up totally,

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Speaker 3: So I don't believe what I'm going to say. Go on, Like,

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Speaker 3: if you're in the trades, hospitality, manufacturing, you're least likely

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Speaker 3: to work from home. Mind you their customer facing us bad.

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Speaker 3: So that's what that's about.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that makes sense.

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Speaker 3: I don't know anyway. See which is the online jobs

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Speaker 3: board considered what ads mentioned work from home arrangements. Nine

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Speaker 3: percent mentioned work from home, a figure that's declined only

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Speaker 3: slightly since twenty twenty three, suggesting work from home is

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Speaker 3: definitely here to stay. As you mentioned insurance and superinnuation.

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Speaker 3: Just over half the jobs mentioned work from home in

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Speaker 3: consulting and text around thirty percent, legal and HR and

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Speaker 3: recruitment twenty five percent, Michael marketing commes twenty five percent,

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Speaker 3: twenty five percent. What are the other seventy five percent doing?

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Speaker 1: Oh, they're all heading into the office clearly, like like

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Speaker 1: you know what, Sean, we have had a period of

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Speaker 1: where you and I haven't been working in the same

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Speaker 1: place because you've been working remotely. And I can't even

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Speaker 1: say you've been working from home because you've worked from

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Speaker 1: all over the world over various times over the last

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Speaker 1: little while. And we're soon going to be back in

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Speaker 1: the studio tun on Monday.

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Speaker 2: Very exciting slot. Oh I've really missed you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Well, at some point I better get a souvenir anyway.

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Speaker 1: Now the scramble is on to try and find something

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Speaker 1: for the Fear and Greed to be like, oh crap,

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Speaker 1: they're expecting something. Turning to international news now, Sean and

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Speaker 1: Fresh from his success freeing hostages in the Middle East,

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Speaker 1: US President Donald Trump is set to welcome his Ukrainian

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Speaker 1: counterpart to Washington on Friday. This will be for talks

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Speaker 1: about how they can force Russia's Vladimir Putin to the

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Speaker 1: negotiating tape.

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Speaker 3: It includes the possibility of Washington supplying American made Tomahawk

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Speaker 3: missiles to Kiev. The meeting will be Vladimir Zelenski's third

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Speaker 3: with the US President at the White House since Trump

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Speaker 3: returned to office in January. Trump and Zelenski held phone

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Speaker 3: calls out of the weekend, during which they discussed the

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Speaker 3: possibility of Natal allies buying Tomahawk missiles four Kiev, a

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Speaker 3: long range weapon that would extend Ukraine's strike capability as

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Speaker 3: far as Moscow and beyond.

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Speaker 2: According to the ft You.

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Speaker 1: Mentioned Taylor Swift earlier Sean and she has broken another

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Speaker 1: music industry record, with opening week sales of her latest album,

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Speaker 1: The Life of a Showgirl, eclipsing those of Adell's twenty

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Speaker 1: five from a decade ago.

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Speaker 3: The Life of a Showgirl ended the week with the

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Speaker 3: equivalent of just over four million sales in the United States,

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Speaker 3: according to the tracking service Illuminate in twenty fifteen, Adel's

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Speaker 3: twenty five sold three point five million copies out of

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Speaker 3: the gate. This is all according to reporting the New

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Speaker 3: York Times. Of the four million Taylor Swift three point

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Speaker 3: five million I find this incredible were sales of vinyl CDs,

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Speaker 3: cassettes and digital downloads. Five hundred thousand came from streaming.

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Speaker 3: Showgirl sold an incredible one point three million copies last

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Speaker 3: week as a vinyl LP.

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Speaker 1: It back to the Future, like, this is incredible, right

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Speaker 1: it is?

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Speaker 3: It broken modern era record for first week sales set

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Speaker 3: by Taller Swift herself. Of course, Showgirl has become Swift's

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Speaker 3: fifteenth album to go number one on the Billboard two

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Speaker 3: hundred chart. Only the Beatles have more number one titles

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Speaker 3: with nineteen. The songs on Showgirl also drew six hundred

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Speaker 3: and eighty one million clicks six hundred and eighty one

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Speaker 3: million clicks on streaming services from American listeners. Spotify announced

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Speaker 3: that the Fate of Aphelia, the opening track on the album,

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Speaker 3: had become the most streamed song on that platform in

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Speaker 3: a single week ever, and this is on the back,

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Speaker 3: of course, of the Eras tour last year by far,

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Speaker 3: the highest gracing. It's a tour on record, selling just

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Speaker 3: over two billion US dollars and tickets for one hundred

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Speaker 3: and forty nine shows.

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Speaker 2: Quite the phenomenon.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, what's your favorite song from the Life of a

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Speaker 1: Show Girl album?

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Speaker 3: I do very much like the Fate of a Failure,

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Speaker 3: the opening track. And I say that because I haven't

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Speaker 3: listened to it, and it's the only name I know.

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Speaker 1: It's the only one you know, like, it's the only

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Speaker 1: one who've got in front of you right now. But

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Speaker 1: you did it so smoothly. I actually believed it and you, Michael, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the same one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, favorite failure?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, a big fan. We're a failure fellas here now, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Coming up next is Fear and Greed Q and are.

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Speaker 2: Feel your fellas? I'm not sure that's about go on

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Speaker 2: up next.

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed Q and A. Sean And you're speaking

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Speaker 1: today with Luke Yamen, the chief economist from Commonwealth Bank.

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Speaker 3: Yes, so, the Commonwealth Bank's economics team has just released

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Speaker 3: it's twenty twenty six outlook. We talk to Luke about

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Speaker 3: the state of the economy, but perhaps more importantly for

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Speaker 3: the rest of us, what's going to happen Interest rates

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Speaker 3: what's going to happen to house prices? What's happened to

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Speaker 3: employment market?

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Speaker 2: Great chat with Luke.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it certainly is. It is coming up next to

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Speaker 1: the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or

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Speaker 1: at Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is also where

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Speaker 1: you sign up for that quite remarkable daily newsletter that

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Speaker 1: is nearly as good as Life of a show Girl.

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Speaker 1: As I mean, it's obviously a different genre, but if

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Speaker 1: you want to sign up, I'll put a link in

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Speaker 1: today's show notes, and this one's entirely free. Thank you

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Speaker 1: very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, the fifteenth of October twenty twenty five. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.