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Speaker 1: Today on fear and Greed. Global financial markets are on

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Speaker 1: edge ahead of the inauguration of Donald Trump tomorrow morning

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Speaker 1: Australian time. News that two of the world's biggest mining companies,

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Speaker 1: Rio Tinto and Glencore were in merger talks brightens the

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Speaker 1: spotlight on copper and TikTok goes dark in the United States.

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Speaker 1: Plus the Hamas Israel ceasefire comes into effect and NFTs

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Speaker 1: remember them non fundable tokens while they're going backwards in value.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people

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Speaker 1: who make their own decisions. It is Monday, the twentieth

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Speaker 1: of January twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good

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Speaker 1: morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning Michael.

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Speaker 1: Sean big week this week. The main story this morning,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is set to become the president of the

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Speaker 1: United States for the second time, putting investment markets on edge,

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Speaker 1: really on the back of enormous uncertainty around economic and

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Speaker 1: political settings.

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Speaker 2: The inauguration is scheduled for tomorrow morning Australian time. He'll

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Speaker 2: raise his right hand take the oath of office. He

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Speaker 2: officially gets the gig at noon Washington time, which is

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Speaker 2: a couple of hours later he was the forty fifth president.

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Speaker 2: So does it become the forty seventh president? I'm not

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Speaker 2: sure actually, so I presume Joe Biden. Well, Joe Biden's

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Speaker 2: the forty sixth president. So do you get like forty

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Speaker 2: five and forty seven?

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Speaker 1: I should have to reprint all of the stationery seven

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Speaker 1: next to it. But that's probably in the scale of things,

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Speaker 1: probably relatively minor.

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Speaker 2: Well, it is because many of his policies are very

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Speaker 2: extreme in nature. Massive deportation of people living in the

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Speaker 2: US illegally, big immediate tariffs, policy announcements on social media,

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Speaker 2: which may or may not occur. Amps Shane Oliver did

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Speaker 2: some work on this over the past week. He says

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Speaker 2: that the policy agenda is somewhat schizophrenic for investment markets.

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Speaker 2: There's good news tax cuts to regulation and bad news

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Speaker 2: tariffs and immigration. We're likely to see a bunch of

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Speaker 2: announcements early on, even within the first twenty four hours.

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Speaker 2: Immigration restrictions may be energy deg regulation that'll get to

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Speaker 2: run early on financial deg regulation. You're going to hear

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Speaker 2: a lot about crypto earlier on the federal workforce, tariffs,

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Speaker 2: that sort of stuff. What's it mean, for Australia, we

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Speaker 2: don't actually sell a lot of stuff to the US,

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Speaker 2: so that's potentially good news. In terms of tariffs, about

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Speaker 2: four percent of our exports go to the US. It

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Speaker 2: won't the tariffs won't have much of a direct impact

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Speaker 2: on US, but if they cause a global slowdown, a

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Speaker 2: Chinese slowdown, that will certainly hit us. The US dollar

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Speaker 2: has risen since Trump won. That's hurt the Aussie dollar.

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Speaker 2: So those that are going overseas, those of you, not

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Speaker 2: me and Michael, perhaps you going overseas at some point

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Speaker 2: are going to feel the pain of that broadly. Though

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Speaker 2: it shouldn't affect our economy directly too much, but it

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Speaker 2: certainly hits financial markets all right, and.

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Speaker 1: It's the flow on effects then for us. And an

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Speaker 1: interesting take on all of this today, Sean stick around

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Speaker 1: after the show, We've got Fear and Greed the week

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Speaker 1: ahead with our resident economist Stephen could Coolis, And really

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Speaker 1: the focus of the conversation today is about the economic

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Speaker 1: impact of Donald Trump's inauguration exactly.

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Speaker 2: There's not a lot going on in the world of

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Speaker 2: economics this week, huge week next week with inflation figures.

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Speaker 2: So we talked to Stephen all about what Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: means for the global economy.

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Speaker 1: Just briefly. On the inauguration, it's set to shift indoors

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Speaker 1: ostensibly because of the Really, it's frigid weather, isn't it

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Speaker 1: in Washington, DC. You wouldn't want to be outdoors for this.

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Speaker 2: I bet security guys are breathing a sigh for relief.

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Speaker 2: We're talking about twenty thousand people rather than two hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty thousand people with Donald Trump will be sworn

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Speaker 2: in inside the Capitol Building. He'll then host a modified

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Speaker 2: or inaugural parade in Capital One Arena, one of the

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Speaker 2: big sports arenas in Washington. On the day. There'll be

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Speaker 2: about twenty five thousand police, federal law enforcement, and military

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Speaker 2: person now from forty states as part of the security team.

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Speaker 2: Quite amazing. There was an anti Trump protest that marched

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Speaker 2: past the White House over the weekend, organized said fifty

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Speaker 2: thousand law enforcement authorities aid about twenty five thousand people.

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Speaker 2: Not a huge rally, but that did take place. But

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Speaker 2: you know, hopefully, and we have no indications otherwise, hopefully

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Speaker 2: it will be a peaceful transitioning of power this time.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, moving away now from politics, Sean News

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Speaker 1: that two of the biggest mining companies in the world,

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Speaker 1: Australia's Rio Tinto and Swiss headquartered Glencore, had been discussing

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Speaker 1: a potential merger between the two. Has really put the

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Speaker 1: focus very much on copper.

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Speaker 2: It's fascinating this. So the two were talking last year,

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Speaker 2: though it seems according to media reports that those talks

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Speaker 2: are not currently active. If it went ahead, right, so

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Speaker 2: it's not dead, but it's not active at the moment.

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Speaker 2: If it went ahead, it would be the mining industry's

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Speaker 2: biggest deal ever. R as the second biggest mine in

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Speaker 2: the world, valued at one hundred and five billion US dollars,

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Speaker 2: glencres worth about fifty five billion dollars. You put that

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Speaker 2: together one hundred and sixty billion dollars, that would make

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Speaker 2: them the world's largest minor, ahead of BHP currently number one.

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Speaker 2: That's worth one hundred and twenty five hundred and thirty

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Speaker 2: billion US dollars. Both glen Core and Rao owned some

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Speaker 2: of the best copper mines in the world. Glen Core

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Speaker 2: produces about a million tons of copper, where it's about

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Speaker 2: eight hundred thousand tons a year remembered. Last year, BHP

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Speaker 2: chased Anglo American mostly for its copper assets. What is

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Speaker 2: really fascinating at the moment in the world of resources,

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Speaker 2: iron ore was everything in the last decade, mostly because

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Speaker 2: China was building a handover fist. Now that's stopped somewhere,

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Speaker 2: certainly slowed. Construction in China has slowed. Iron al is

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Speaker 2: slightly parsse. Copper is the gal. Of course, copper is

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Speaker 2: central to the electrification process. So in terms of renewing

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Speaker 2: or changing the base of energy globally to renewables, you

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Speaker 2: need plenty of copper. So that's why everyone wants copper.

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Speaker 2: Australia doesn't actually have that much copper. We've got Olympic

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Speaker 2: Dam in South Australia that's huge, but the really big

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Speaker 2: deposits in South America are parts of Africa, Mongolia, the

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Speaker 2: US has large amounts of copper. Well. I think is

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Speaker 2: really fascinating about this not just the take over activity

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Speaker 2: where the Rio and Glencore will ever get together, but

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Speaker 2: where does Australia sit in the resources world. We have

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Speaker 2: been the king really because of iron ore, but now

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Speaker 2: copper is becoming the hottest commodity and we just don't

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Speaker 2: have a lot of copper. So we'll have to really

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Speaker 2: rethink how our mining industry are of the next decade

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Speaker 2: or so, and.

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Speaker 1: So can I and all make a comeback then, or

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Speaker 1: is that really just entirely dependent on China and whether

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Speaker 1: economic activity there picks up, construction there picks up. We're

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Speaker 1: really kind of dependent on one country.

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Speaker 2: In the short term. That's right. In the longer term,

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Speaker 2: places like Indonesia need huge amounts of infrastructure. So it's

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Speaker 2: not like iron or isn't a commodity for the future.

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Speaker 2: There will still be great demand for it. It's just

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Speaker 2: at the moment because the construction industry in China is

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Speaker 2: so weak, it's really come off the boil, and everyone

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Speaker 2: wants copper. Now at the end of the day, when

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Speaker 2: you've got BHP Glenn Coore Rio chasing copper, I'm bedding

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Speaker 2: that that's the commodity of the future rather than I

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Speaker 2: or fascinating.

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Speaker 1: All right, sewn, We've still got plenty still to cover.

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Speaker 1: We're talking the calls to drop credit card surch charges.

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Speaker 1: We've got an update surprise surprise on Star Entertainment. Seems

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Speaker 1: to be one of those every day TikTok going dark.

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Speaker 1: So much still to cover. We'll be back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi has called for action, not meetings,

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Speaker 1: to combat the escalating Semitism across the country. Just ahead

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Speaker 1: of the ceasefire between Israel and Hermas.

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Speaker 2: On Friday, cars were torched and vandalized in Sydney's Eastern suburbs.

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Speaker 2: The former home of high profile Jewish advocate Alex Ritchan

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Speaker 2: was doused with red paint. Now Anthony Albernezi and New

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Speaker 2: South Wales Premier Chris Means yesterday came out and said

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Speaker 2: that federal and state action will be taken to clamp

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Speaker 2: down on anti Semitism. This was all happening as the

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Speaker 2: Israeli parliament finally passed the ceasefire agreement with Hamas Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister Benjamin Netanya, who has agreed to the deal. It's

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Speaker 2: in effect as we speak. It comes after fifteen months

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Speaker 2: of hostility. There are still ninety eight hostages being held

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Speaker 2: in Hamas. Israeli people in Hamas. We're getting some of

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Speaker 2: those hostages will return home. There will also be some

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Speaker 2: political prisoners in Israel going back to Palestine. Mister Netanyahu.

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Speaker 2: Over the weekend, they warned that he was ready to

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Speaker 2: go back to war if negotiations for the second phase

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Speaker 2: of the ceasefire collapse. So it is a very very

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Speaker 2: volatile situation. This ceasefire seems to be holding, which I

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Speaker 2: mean it's only within hours now. We'll see what happens

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Speaker 2: over the next few days. But it's promising, Michael. But

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Speaker 2: you know, in all these things, there just seems to

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Speaker 2: be so much diplomacy and posturing and stuff like that.

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Speaker 1: And a lot of potential for things still to go wrong.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely. I mean, in fact, part of the net Yahu

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Speaker 2: government resigned over the week in the far right faction

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Speaker 2: of his government. Now he still holds a majority, but

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Speaker 2: it's only two seats now, and so that makes it

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Speaker 2: very difficult for him to govern.

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Speaker 1: Now, Sean, I mentioned this one before. The Commonwealth Bank

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Speaker 1: has called on the Reserve Bank to drop surcharges on

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Speaker 1: credit and debit card payments.

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Speaker 2: I think this is quite an interesting little story. So

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Speaker 2: the Reserve banks looking into surcharges and the payment system

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Speaker 2: more generally call for submissions. Treasure of Jim Chalmers has

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Speaker 2: already said he wants to dump but card surcharges from

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Speaker 2: next year, subject to Reserve Bank agreeing, So what we're

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Speaker 2: really talking about a credit cards? Now. The Commonwealth Bank

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Speaker 2: came out and in its submission to the inquiry said,

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Speaker 2: let's just done all surcharges. It's been done in the UK,

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Speaker 2: it's been done in Europe. It's just much simpler. So

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Speaker 2: when you tap your card, you wan't you know if

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Speaker 2: it's twenty three dollars fifty, it's not actually twenty three

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Speaker 2: dollars sixty seven. It's twenty three dollars fifty and I

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Speaker 2: have to pay that extra seventeen cents. Austrainers pay about

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Speaker 2: a billion dollars in surcharges. MasterCard and Visa Card not

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Speaker 2: surprisingly agree with Comwealth Bank. They don't want any of

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Speaker 2: these surcharges. Westpac agrees with the ban on debit card surcharges,

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Speaker 2: but not necessarily credit card surcharges. According to the finn Review,

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Speaker 2: the interesting thing about the well, lots interesting about this.

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Speaker 2: Lots of things sean the idea of surcharges. They were

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Speaker 2: designed in the nineteen nineties mostly to push customers away

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Speaker 2: from more expensive credit card It's in favor of debit

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Speaker 2: cards and f plus. Debit cards and FPUs facilitate much

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Speaker 2: cheaper transactions. I don't know about you. I seldom use

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Speaker 2: a credit card now I always use a debit card.

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Speaker 2: We previously I always used credit cards, So it's kind

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Speaker 2: of work. It improves transparency, but whether or not it

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Speaker 2: have to be called out, not so sure.

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Speaker 1: I note that that not all businesses are certainly supporting

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Speaker 1: the shift away from surcharges. I was reading over the

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Speaker 1: weekend about Quantits and Virgin for instance, the airlines are

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Speaker 1: certainly opposed to them being dropped, and basically said that, hey,

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Speaker 1: this might actually result in higher airfares because we won't

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Speaker 1: be able to single out people using credit cards to

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Speaker 1: put a surcharge anymore. It may up that the processing

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Speaker 1: fees need to be incorporated into everybody's fares now, which

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Speaker 1: would then see an increase. And obviously that's their stance

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Speaker 1: on it, and it may not actually be the way

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Speaker 1: that it plays out, but there certainly is a There

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Speaker 1: are plenty of opinions in this debate.

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Speaker 2: Sean, Yes, and I mean I actually think that's probably true,

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Speaker 2: because I think prices will go up slightly to cover

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Speaker 2: for the charges.

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Speaker 1: Now. I promised an update on Star Entertainment. The group

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Speaker 1: has once again asked the New South Wales and Queensland

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Speaker 1: government for tax relief. Sean Is at Teeters on the

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Speaker 1: edge of collapse.

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Speaker 2: Went through fifty million dollars over the last month, hasn't

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Speaker 2: got much left in the bank. It has called in

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Speaker 2: restructuring experts. That's ahead of going into administration. I'm not

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Speaker 2: saying it is going into administration, but it's sort of

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Speaker 2: the step before that is to get some restructuring experts in.

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Speaker 2: It's also sought safe harbor provision for directors. What that

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Speaker 2: means is that directors get protection should it end up

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Speaker 2: trading insolvent. It's a process which basically allows the directors,

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Speaker 2: particularly the CEO, to run the business without fear of prosecution.

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Speaker 2: New South Wales and Queensland governments have previously said no

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Speaker 2: to tax concessions. There is no sign that they're going

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Speaker 2: to give any. It really is the final few weeks,

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Speaker 2: well not the final few weeks to Star Entertainment, but

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Speaker 2: the few weeks not D Day, but yeah, d weeks,

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Speaker 2: few weeks whatever it is for Star Entertainment.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the clock is certainly ticking.

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Speaker 2: That's it. That's it.

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Speaker 1: There are a couple of updates this morning on takeover battles.

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Speaker 1: The first AV Jennings has opened its books to singapore

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Speaker 1: Ian Singaporean. So this is one of those ones Sean

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Speaker 1: that I have always stumbled over. A company from Singapore,

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Speaker 1: a suitor from Singapore, Hobi Land.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so AV Jennings previously opened its books to appropriate

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Speaker 2: capital partners. They did due diligence. They've offered sixty seven

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Speaker 2: cents a share. That was back in November. The hobe

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Speaker 2: Land has now made a seventy cent a share bid.

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Speaker 2: It's now going into due diligence. The AV Jennings sare

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Speaker 2: price itself is seventy two cents. That's just best to think.

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Speaker 2: There's another bid on the way.

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Speaker 1: And CC Capital has upped its bid for Insignia Financial

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Speaker 1: to four dollars sixty a share. That's up from four

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Speaker 1: dollars thirty.

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Speaker 2: Yes, that bid is now worth more than three billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: The other bid bidder is Baying Capital at two point

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Speaker 2: nine billion dollars. Insignia's share price is now four dollars

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Speaker 2: forty three. Still a few hoops around Foreign Investment Review

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Speaker 2: Board and stuff like that, but the battle is certainly on.

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Speaker 1: Hey, Sean, when we talked a lot about last year

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Speaker 1: the Sigma Healthcare Chemist Warehouse deal. It was a big deal,

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Speaker 1: got a lot of attention last year. Where's that one

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Speaker 1: up to?

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Speaker 2: Well, it's the big one really that will keep the

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Speaker 2: year off. It's worth five point eight billion dollars. Most

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Speaker 2: approvals have been processed, including the ah triable c. It's

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Speaker 2: right to go to shareholders and that actually happens next week,

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Speaker 2: the twenty ninth of January. Seems to have the backing

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Speaker 2: of major shareholders and proxy firms, so it should get

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Speaker 2: go ahead. When it leasts, it will become a top

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Speaker 2: twenty stock immediately. What's interesting about that is theres a

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Speaker 2: bunch of passive fund managers, people who just followed the market.

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Speaker 2: They'll have to buy into Sigma to ensure that they've

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Speaker 2: got a waiting of Sigma slash chemist Warehouse in their funds.

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Speaker 2: Now officially Sigma is taking over chemist Warehouse, notwithstanding that

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Speaker 2: Chemist Warehouse is miles bigger than Sigma. But you're going

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Speaker 2: to see that share of pressure on that share price

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Speaker 2: to rise as a result.

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Speaker 1: Just quickly showing local markets, how did they finish up

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Speaker 1: on Friday?

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Speaker 2: With a whimper? Michael with a WHIMPERX two hundred closed down.

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Speaker 2: He has to touch to eight thousand, three hundred and

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Speaker 2: ten points. Industrials did best. Financials and tell there you go,

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Speaker 2: that's my Singaporean, your Singaporean financials and telcos did worst.

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Speaker 2: Not really much of a day among the large caps.

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Speaker 2: The banks were sold off, having had a pretty good

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Speaker 2: week previously come off. Bank National, Australian Bank, west Pac,

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Speaker 2: ain Z were all down around one and a half percent.

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Speaker 2: Bad j P FOYSCU metals both ended higher. Some of

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Speaker 2: the techtocs BIST, Global, Aria, Promedicus ended lower, while the

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Speaker 2: retailers were mixed.

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Speaker 1: International markets, what's happening there.

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Speaker 2: There was a decent rebound over the weekend. P five

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Speaker 2: hundred is trading just under six thousand points. Basically, it's

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Speaker 2: up a little over two percent so far this year.

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Speaker 2: Wall Streep is closed tonight for Martin Luther King Day.

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Speaker 2: Also the swearing in of Donald Trump. Of course, very

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Speaker 2: busy week. Otherwise, apart from Donald Trump and whatever he

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Speaker 2: says in the next seventy two hours or so, we've

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Speaker 2: got the December quarter earnings announcements starting with Netflix on

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Speaker 2: Wednesday our time, So it's very interesting week. For Wall Streep. Also,

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Speaker 2: before we leave Global markets, the IMF International Montree Fund

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Speaker 2: revised up its global growth forecast over the weekend. It

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Speaker 2: thinks the global or growth in the cloth I'm struggling

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Speaker 2: this morning, Michael, It thinks real economic growth around the

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Speaker 2: world will average three point three percent this year, up

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Speaker 2: from three point two percent.

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Speaker 1: Really wasn't that hard, was it?

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Speaker 2: No, it wasn't. Really.

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Speaker 1: You made it a lot more difficult than it needed

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Speaker 1: to be. After the show, sean to say a brief

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Speaker 1: mention of the interview that you have coming up, because

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Speaker 1: it is related to markets. You're speaking with Matthew Kidman

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Speaker 1: from Centennial Asset Management.

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Speaker 2: All about asset allocation. We don't talk anywhere near enough

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Speaker 2: about asset allocation. Asset allocation is where you put your money.

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Speaker 2: You put it in cash, to put in bonds, you

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Speaker 2: put it in local equities, international equities, to put in

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Speaker 2: private equity, blah blah blah. Where you put your money

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Speaker 2: has a huge determination on your long term returns. And

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Speaker 2: so while we talk about chairs all the time, maybe

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Speaker 2: we should be talking about asset allocation a lot lot more.

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Speaker 2: And that's what we're doing this morning with Matthew Kidman.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good one. It's coming up after the

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Speaker 1: show and after fear and greed the week ahead? What

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Speaker 1: about this asset? Sean non fungible tokens or NFTs. In

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four had their worst year for trading volumes

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Speaker 1: and sales since the COVID pandemic.

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Speaker 2: And that really was the beginning of NFTs, so the

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Speaker 2: worst year ever. Sales of digital collectibles last year fell

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Speaker 2: a teen percent, volumes for down about nineteen percent, that

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Speaker 2: is according to blockchain analytics platform dap Radar DApp r Adar. Now,

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Speaker 2: NFT is mostly a creation of the pandemic, the unique

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Speaker 2: digital signatures that can be attached to an image or

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Speaker 2: a piece of footage or a tweet or something. Remember

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Speaker 2: the Jack Dorsey's first tweet. Jack Dorsey may have founded

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Speaker 2: Twitter his first tweet. The NFT of that sold for

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Speaker 2: two point nine million dollars in about twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 2: I think that was ear that demand really peaked, sales

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Speaker 2: worth about fifty seven billion dollars. Prices collapsed in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty three. Cryptos have recovered NFTs. Haven't it be interesting

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Speaker 2: to see what happens with Donald Trump in power? I'm

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Speaker 2: not quite sure, Like, certainly cryptos will get benefit from it,

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Speaker 2: but I never quite understood NFTs, to be honest, And

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Speaker 2: I mean I don't really understand crypto either for that matter.

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Speaker 1: But well, I mean, crypto it feels like more logic

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Speaker 1: behind it in many cases, whereas NFTs have always felt

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Speaker 1: a little bit like a novelty. Yeah, and I do

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Speaker 1: struggle to understand kind of the value of a lot

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Speaker 1: of these things. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Third one.

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Speaker 1: Anyway, let's turn to international news briefly. Sean a big story.

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Speaker 1: TikTok stopped working in the United States overnight and disappeared

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Speaker 1: from the Apple and Google app stores ahead of the

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Speaker 1: beginning of a law that requires the shutdown of the app.

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Speaker 2: TikTok is Chinese owned. He put up a message yesterday saying,

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Speaker 2: I quote, a law banning TikTok has been enacted in

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Speaker 2: the US. Unfortunately, that means you can't use TikTok for now.

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Speaker 2: So if you're trying to log on from the US

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Speaker 2: on the TikTok onto TikTok yesterday as opposed to TikTok,

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Speaker 2: you couldn't. The message continued. We are fortunate that President

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Speaker 2: Trump has indicated that he will work with us on

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Speaker 2: a solution to reinstate TikTok once he takes offers. This

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Speaker 2: is all about a decision from Congress LA last year

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Speaker 2: that ended up in the Supreme Court last week. Supreme

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Speaker 2: Court upheld the law that requires byteedance the Chinese owned

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Speaker 2: to sell TikTok or face a nationwide band. Hasn't sold,

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Speaker 2: doesn't want to sell, Therefore it's facing a nationwide band.

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Speaker 2: Behind the case, a fears that the platform could be

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Speaker 2: used for espionage or to spread propaganda. Donald Trump over

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Speaker 2: the weekend said he would most likely give TikTok a

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Speaker 2: ninety day reprieve. Donald Trump and Jijing Ping spoke over

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Speaker 2: the weekend ahead of the yournal inauguration tomorrow. They discussed

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Speaker 2: the issue in the call, So we'll find out more

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Speaker 2: in the next twenty four hours.

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Speaker 1: It's so indeed all right. Big start to the week.

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Speaker 1: Coming up next is Fear and Greed The Week Ahead,

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Speaker 1: featuring resident economist Stephen Kocoulis, followed by Matthew Kidman from

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Speaker 1: Centennial Asset Management talking all about asset allocation. So plenty

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Speaker 1: of good listening coming up on your podcast platform or

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Speaker 1: at Fearangreed Dot com dot au. Thank you very much, Sean,

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Speaker 1: thank you, Michael. It is Monday, the twentieth of January

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and

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Speaker 1: please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x Facebook and yes,

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Speaker 1: still on TikTok. I'm Michael Thompson. And that was fear

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Speaker 1: and greed. Have a great day.