Speaker 1: I'm Daniel James and you're listening to seven AM. This week,
Speaker 1: the Albanezi government has been forced to confront a growing
Speaker 1: sense of instability with fresh warnings from the IMF about
Speaker 1: the global economy, including the potential impact on Australia. It
Speaker 1: places new pressure on Treasurer Jim Chalmers ahead of the
Speaker 1: budget as the government deals with a fuel suppli scare
Speaker 1: that pulled the Prime Minister back to the country in
Speaker 1: the middle of an overseas mission to secure supplies for
Speaker 1: the nation.
Speaker 2: This is an incident that obviously is regrettable, particularly given
Speaker 2: the timing in which it has occurred, but the.
Speaker 1: Advice as labor tries to steady nerves. The opposition is
Speaker 1: pushing a hard line of migration, with Angus Taylor reaching
Speaker 1: for politics that feels both familiar and deliberately divisive, so
Speaker 1: much so that it prompted a former Prime Minister to
Speaker 1: release a scathing statement.
Speaker 3: Kidding said Angus Taylor marks himself out as a political
Speaker 3: leader unworthy of the leadership of a party that has
Speaker 3: managed Australia for the greater part of the last century.
Speaker 1: Today Press Gallery veteran pau Bon Jorno on the economic
Speaker 1: anxiety hanging over the government, the oppositions in sandiary picture,
Speaker 1: migration and how both sides are trying to define the moment.
Speaker 1: It's Saturday, April ad.
Speaker 3: Paul.
Speaker 1: This week we had a pretty dire warning from the
Speaker 1: IMF that a global recession is looming, as Jim charm
Speaker 1: has met with economic ministers in DC. How bad is
Speaker 1: it looking for Australia and for the government.
Speaker 3: Well, Daniel I got to say, it's looking very bad
Speaker 3: for everybody, Australia and the government, and we're all in
Speaker 3: the one boat. In fact, I don't think we can
Speaker 3: make a distinction between the government and Australia here. Albanizi
Speaker 3: pointed out that what we've got is the biggest global
Speaker 3: spike that's ever happened in Australian history when it comes
Speaker 3: to oil and energy.
Speaker 2: Of course we're not immune. This is a global spike.
Speaker 2: It's the biggest global spike that has ever happened in history,
Speaker 2: and that's had an impact on inflation and on the
Speaker 2: price of fuel right around the world.
Speaker 3: And if we want to get a bit of an
Speaker 3: insight into what the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank
Speaker 3: thinks these impacts will be, it put out its world
Speaker 3: economic outlook during the week.
Speaker 2: Of course, if the shock gets larger, if the disruptions
Speaker 2: get more severe, then we could get more of an
Speaker 2: inflection shark that would last more Internet under it.
Speaker 3: And it says the United States Israel war on Iran
Speaker 3: risks creating quote an energy crisis of unprecedented scale that
Speaker 3: could end in global recession. And Jim Chalmers doesn't quibble
Speaker 3: with the assessment of the IMF that the situation could
Speaker 3: see Australia with higher inflation than most advanced economies.
Speaker 1: I think of a more sort of complex time in
Speaker 1: which to prepare a federal budget in recent memory. Paul,
Speaker 1: how much pressure does the IMF warning and the war
Speaker 1: put on the treasure ahead of next month's budget and
Speaker 1: how does it change what we can expect?
Speaker 3: All of those questions are extremely relevant and Charmers I think,
Speaker 3: summed it up pretty well when he said during the week.
Speaker 4: This is a very serious, very dangerous time for the world.
Speaker 4: Now Australia is better placed and better prepared than a
Speaker 4: number of other countries, but we won't be spared the
Speaker 4: fallout from this very substantial economic shock.
Speaker 3: And the world, the Bank, the IMF is warning that
Speaker 3: incomes that is national incomes. Personal incomes will obviously fall.
Speaker 3: Now this will be made worse if the usual prescription
Speaker 3: that we get from the Reserve Bank and central banks
Speaker 3: around the world is that if inflation is running out
Speaker 3: of control, you up interest rates. Life more miserable, especially
Speaker 3: for borrowers. And by borrowers, we don't only mean people
Speaker 3: borrowing to fund their mortgage, to fund their home, but
Speaker 3: borrowers in business, small business. This can have well a
Speaker 3: devastating impact. And during the week I was talking to
Speaker 3: a quite senior advisor to the Prime Minister who said
Speaker 3: that Albanezi is well aware that walking this tight rope
Speaker 3: is in a danger of poking the bear of the
Speaker 3: Reserve Bank. That if the Reserve Bank judges that the
Speaker 3: treasure of the government's got it wrong, they'll go harder
Speaker 3: with interest rates. So it's more than a dilemma, it's
Speaker 3: a real fix that the government and the country is
Speaker 3: in and I guess we just have to hang on
Speaker 3: to our seats for this very wild ride.
Speaker 1: At the heart of all the pressure that's on the
Speaker 1: government at the moment is the fuel supply situation, which
Speaker 1: was exacerbated this week. One of only two Australian oilron
Speaker 1: finals was engulfed in a massive fire good afternoon.
Speaker 5: The impact of afire at the Carrio Oil refinery in
Speaker 5: Geelong is expected to have serious consequences. The blaze is
Speaker 5: now extinguished after a small gas league sparked an explosion
Speaker 5: late last night.
Speaker 1: The PM flew home early from Malaysia to address the situation.
Speaker 1: What do you make of the fact that he rushed
Speaker 1: back to stand in front of the ore refinery and
Speaker 1: talk about it. Couldn't have Richard Miles just done that.
Speaker 1: It's seeing as he was a local member and the
Speaker 1: deputy Prime Minister.
Speaker 3: Look, Anthony Albinizi is acutely aware of just how perilous
Speaker 3: the politics of this situation is. He cannot afford as
Speaker 3: the Prime Minister. The government cannot afford to look like
Speaker 3: it's sitting back, shrugging its shoulders and telling the rest
Speaker 3: of us to eat cake. That's why Albanizi embarked on
Speaker 3: personal diplomacy, going up indu Asia to personally argue our
Speaker 3: case to our major fuel suppliers in Singapore, Brunei and Malaysia.
Speaker 3: Sure our diplomats could have done it. The High Commissioners
Speaker 3: could have knocked on the doors, but when the Prime
Speaker 3: Minute turns up, it gives it weight and it also
Speaker 3: says that we're taking this extremely seriously. And I think
Speaker 3: that's why he flew directly back from Malaysia into Geelong
Speaker 3: this week to say, I'm here. I want assurances that
Speaker 3: what is happening here has been dealt with in the
Speaker 3: best possible way.
Speaker 1: Do you think, Paul, that if the Prime Minister in
Speaker 1: the government is not seen as dealing with this situation appropriately,
Speaker 1: that Albanezi recognizes that this is a potential government rerecord, Well.
Speaker 3: It is indeed, and I think that also we have
Speaker 3: seen historically governments lose elections rather than oppositions win them,
Speaker 3: and you can't necessarily count on the opposition continuing to
Speaker 3: be as hopeless as it has been in the last
Speaker 3: year or so.
Speaker 1: Through all of this, Paul, the PM, of of course,
Speaker 1: is trying to keep everyone calm, which was the aim
Speaker 1: of Albanese's highly ridiculed national address a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 1: You've got some inciting tale on what was going on there.
Speaker 1: What have you heard?
Speaker 3: Well, what I've heard of, which which was quite interesting, really,
Speaker 3: was that Australia's two biggest supermarket change Coals and Woolworths
Speaker 3: were very worried in the very early days, the first
Speaker 3: week of the crisis, that a run on supermarket supplies
Speaker 3: would leave them incapable of keeping up with the demand.
Speaker 3: So they came to Albanizi and they said, look, we've
Speaker 3: got to calm the place down. And that was the
Speaker 3: real purpose I was told of Albanzi going with that
Speaker 3: bland statement. Now a lot of people say, look, if
Speaker 3: you're going to have an address to the nation, you've
Speaker 3: got to say I'm the prime minister and the world
Speaker 3: is about to end. Otherwise, don't bother you know, otherwise,
Speaker 3: just buy an ad, Whereas the real point was, I'm here,
Speaker 3: I'm the Prime minister, and the current situation doesn't demand
Speaker 3: panic because Albanizi knows, as we all know, how long
Speaker 3: this lasts and what its impact will be. He's not
Speaker 3: trying to pretend that we haven't got a crisis on
Speaker 3: our hands. But the best way to manage it is
Speaker 3: we've got supplies. Now, we're confident that we have even
Speaker 3: more than we usually have for another month at least,
Speaker 3: so let us just do prudent business as usual. And
Speaker 3: that was explained to me as the reason why we
Speaker 3: got rather bland appearances from the Prime Minister.
Speaker 1: Coming up dumb, bigotry, offering a fantasy, poor keating, scathing takedown.
Speaker 5: Paul.
Speaker 1: The Opposition's had a very different focus this week, immigration
Speaker 1: by discrimination and that's not something that I'm putting a
Speaker 1: spin on. That saying is Taylor's own words.
Speaker 6: So, ladies and gentlemen, Australia has a non discriminatory immigration program.
Speaker 6: We don't discriminate based on nationality, race, gender or faith.
Speaker 6: But for an immigration program to work in the national interest,
Speaker 6: it must discriminate based on values.
Speaker 1: What did you make of the Liberal Party's migration policy, Well, what.
Speaker 3: I made of it was that it was an act
Speaker 3: of sheer desperation and in grave danger of damaging a
Speaker 3: consensus in this country that essumes racism, that looks for
Speaker 3: multicultural harmony, that looks for national unity rather than cheap
Speaker 3: shots and appealing to what you might call base prejudice.
Speaker 6: Not everyone wanting to migrade to Australia has a noble intent.
Speaker 6: Not everyone wanting to my grade to Australia will be
Speaker 6: a net benefit to Australia. Indeed, some will be a
Speaker 6: net train.
Speaker 3: Every populist racist button that could be pushed was pushed
Speaker 3: by Angus Taylor in a way that some of the
Speaker 3: Liberal backben said to me went further than Susan Lee
Speaker 3: would even have gone, and she was beginning to skate
Speaker 3: quite close to the win there. And it's all in
Speaker 3: the context of the fact that the Liberal Party in
Speaker 3: the upcoming Pharaoh by election in a few weeks time
Speaker 3: are running third. One Nation and an independent candidate are
Speaker 3: vying to win that by election, and the Liberals are
Speaker 3: desperate to claw back as much support from people who
Speaker 3: have decided to abandon the coalition or the Liberals for
Speaker 3: One Nation. In other words, Taylor is trying to outdo
Speaker 3: Pauline Hansen, and there's plenty of evidence in state and
Speaker 3: federal elections past that that won't work.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out
Speaker 1: of Phara, given that's a seat that relies heavily on
Speaker 1: immigration for its workforce, and some aspects of that seat
Speaker 1: exactly the ghost of Christmas Island past. John Howard was
Speaker 1: in the front row. How Howard esked was Taylor's speech well.
Speaker 3: Angus Taylor even came to paraphrasing a famous battle cry
Speaker 3: of John Howard in the two thousand and one election.
Speaker 6: To those who say we'll be in breach of the
Speaker 6: refugee Convention, will decide who deserves protection and the circumstances
Speaker 6: in which that protectionis now.
Speaker 3: Taylor made a big thing of saying that his immigration
Speaker 3: policies Australian values placed. But it seems that Taylor is
Speaker 3: prepared to dump the humanitarian values that underpin the UN
Speaker 3: conventions that he here is blithely promising to discard.
Speaker 1: Speaking of ghosts PM's past, Paul Keating came out with
Speaker 1: some withering words for Angus Taylor. Can you take us
Speaker 1: through some of what he had to say?
Speaker 3: Well, Keating was appalled enough to release a withering statement
Speaker 3: against the Taylor immigration policy prescriptions. He likens them to
Speaker 3: Donald Trump's crackdown in the United States, the vetting of
Speaker 3: people's social media at the border, the threat to kick
Speaker 3: people out who don't somehow measure up to the Australian
Speaker 3: values statement. Keating says Taylor for base political reasons, and
Speaker 3: this is an interesting tack from the former Labor Prime Minister.
Speaker 3: He says, for base political reasons, Taylor has elected to
Speaker 3: walk away from the best instincts of the Liberal Party,
Speaker 3: the party of Robert Menzies, of Harold Holt, of Malcolm Fraser,
Speaker 3: Andrew Peacock, Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull. All of these
Speaker 3: leaders played a part in opening Australian borders to refugees.
Speaker 3: Fraser famously with the Vietnamese Holt began the dismantling of
Speaker 3: the White Australia policy. Keating said that by adopting racism,
Speaker 3: with its shabby appeal to differentiation and primal instincts, Angus
Speaker 3: Taylor marks himself out as a political leader unworthy of
Speaker 3: the leadership of a party that has managed Australia for
Speaker 3: the greater part of the last century. He says racism
Speaker 3: is not simply immoral and abhorrent, it is absurd, as
Speaker 3: if somehow a person's race makes one person more worthy,
Speaker 3: more human than another. Kidding says the blight of Pauline
Speaker 3: Hansen is that her dumb bigotry offers a fantasy, the
Speaker 3: fantasy that Australia in the modern age can return to
Speaker 3: a monoculture.
Speaker 1: What's the motivation behind this? Francus Talen, how do you
Speaker 1: think his hardline approach to migration will play for the
Speaker 1: Liberal parties, there's a smart move if they want to
Speaker 1: win back the Teal seats in the cities, how is
Speaker 1: this going to play out in those seats, Paul.
Speaker 3: Well, precisely. And it's interesting that Zarie Steger, one of
Speaker 3: the Teal independents, was very outspoken in her criticism of
Speaker 3: this policy.
Speaker 5: It was hateful and divisive and it's a dog whistle
Speaker 5: to one nation voters.
Speaker 3: I can't see that in appealing to the extreme right
Speaker 3: of the spectrum, how you're then going to bring back
Speaker 3: the alienated moderates and those who are more at the
Speaker 3: progressive wing of the Liberal party. It just doesn't.
Speaker 1: Compute, Paul. There's a lot that doesn't compute right now.
Speaker 1: But thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 3: Thank you, Daniel Bye.
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Speaker 1: Am this week. Have yourself a great weight, kend