1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,280 Speaker 1: Arnold unless you A lot of you have called in 2 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:04,600 Speaker 1: about in the past and commented on on the text 3 00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:08,320 Speaker 1: line nuclear power in Australia. Is it viable? Is it 4 00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: a reality? Speaking with the Center for International Fores Independent 5 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 1: Studies recently a couple of weeks ago, they put the 6 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:20,480 Speaker 1: cost of nuclear power building a plant at around thirty 7 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:25,599 Speaker 1: odd billion dollars and their argument, their line of thinking 8 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 1: is well snowy two point zero plus transmission lines cost 9 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: twenty billion dollars, so not that much more. The CSIRO 10 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 1: costing it at around eight billion dollars, but still saying 11 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: that is twice as much as using renewables. Wind and 12 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: solar is still the cheapest form of new energy. Let's 13 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: talk about that with the Gen Cost Report Lead author 14 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 1: Paul Graham, chief Energy economist at the CSIO, Paul, good 15 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 1: morning too, and eight billion you reckon now? Is that 16 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 1: more attractive than we would have. 17 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 2: Thought When we were asked by all of the stakeholders 18 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 2: we work with in this project to have a book 19 00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:10,959 Speaker 2: at Nucular, we really went into it with an open mind. 20 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 2: We weren't really sure what number we'ld get. We just 21 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 2: knew that it was important that we need to come 22 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 2: up with the most defensible number we can because obviously 23 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:20,840 Speaker 2: a lot of people are going to be looking at it. 24 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 2: The process we use was to say, let's look at 25 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:28,680 Speaker 2: the country around the world that it's had the best 26 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 2: sort of most consistent building program in recent times, and 27 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 2: that was South Korea. And we've transferred that cost to 28 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 2: Australia by just comparing the cost of new coal here 29 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 2: in South Korea, and that gives us a handle on 30 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 2: the differences in labor costs and all those other issues. 31 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 2: And that's where we came up with this eight point 32 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 2: six billion dollar number. But we wanted to stress that 33 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 2: you only get that number from a continuous building program. 34 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 2: If you build something for the first time, there's a 35 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 2: risk of what we call a first of the kind premium. 36 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 2: And what happens there is you build it for the 37 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 2: first time and things go wrong because you haven't done 38 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 2: it before, and so you get extra costs, which is 39 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 2: what's happened with snowy two point zero. That premium could 40 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 2: be up to one hundred percent, so potentially a seventeen 41 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 2: billion dollar plan. 42 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 1: So the smart thing to do then would be the 43 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 1: higher South Korean officials companies that were building the plants 44 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 1: there to come over here and build one for us. 45 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think some of the submissions we received 46 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 2: when we put out the consultation draft were, you know, 47 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 2: suggestions along those lines. We haven't seen a successful example though, 48 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:42,640 Speaker 2: where you've been able to countries have been able to 49 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 2: transfer costs overseas into another country. Inevitably you run into 50 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 2: the destination country's specific laws and regulations, and the costs 51 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 2: still increase. 52 00:02:55,800 --> 00:03:00,359 Speaker 1: On the frame the eight billion figure, Oka say, it's 53 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 1: even sixteen at worst. So how does that compare to 54 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:08,360 Speaker 1: renewal Because every every wind turbine comes at a big cost, 55 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:11,360 Speaker 1: doesn't it. So solar farms come at a big cost, 56 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 1: but you reckon it's still double that fifty percent more 57 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:16,360 Speaker 1: than what we're doing at the moment. 58 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, with solar when what we've tried to do when 59 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:22,639 Speaker 2: we cost those is put it on our like for 60 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 2: like base, which I mean, if we're going to get 61 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 2: power from solar and wind, that has to be reliable. 62 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 2: And to do that, you've got to you've got to 63 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 2: build storage, you've got to build transmission, you've got to 64 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 2: have peaking plants and hydro and whatever else you can 65 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 2: find to back it. Up when the power is not available. 66 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 2: When we add in all those extra costs, it does 67 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 2: add another forty to the cost of renewable electricity supply. 68 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 2: But even when we do all that, the cost is 69 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 2: still sort of half the cost we're finding for large 70 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 2: scale new cloud. 71 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 1: Okay, all right, so it isn't the issue, or to 72 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 1: some degree the issue about securing baseload power and renewables 73 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 1: are great and today in Adelaide the sun is shining. 74 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 1: Yesterday it was overcast, but today your solar panels, for 75 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 1: people who have got them, will be doing their job, 76 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:16,480 Speaker 1: and that's wonderful. But of course that isn't necessarily consistent. 77 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 1: Although in Adelaide we've had this weather pretty much rolled 78 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 1: out over the last couple of months, and since early 79 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:26,280 Speaker 1: January it's been just beautiful, but on the whole where 80 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 1: the fluctuates and we can get a period over winter 81 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: where we don't see the sun for ages for days 82 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: and weeks. So it does move around the argument that 83 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 1: something something like nuclear would provide that emission free baseload 84 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 1: power to shore up our generation. 85 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, so that is one of the advantages of nuclear 86 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 2: and things like coal and gas, which used to use 87 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 2: in the past, we're going to try build a system 88 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 2: based on renewables. You have to plan for the fact 89 00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,720 Speaker 2: that there will be, as you say, potentially weeks where 90 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 2: there's no much coming not much power coming from those plants, 91 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 2: So you have to have to have something standing by 92 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 2: that you can turn on during those weeks. And the 93 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 2: cheapest thing you can build is generally some sort of 94 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 2: turbine or gas turbine or something of that nature, because 95 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 2: they're the cheapest electricity plants on the market, and the 96 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 2: especially cheap when you're not running them. So for just 97 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 2: sitting there and only turning them on in those really 98 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:31,599 Speaker 2: dire periods when the renewal of electricity is low, it's 99 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:33,160 Speaker 2: not a big cost of the system to have them 100 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 2: standing by. So that's generally how we deal with that issue, 101 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 2: as well as all of the storage technologies. But with 102 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 2: storage we generally use those to deal with the kind 103 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:44,719 Speaker 2: of hourly fluctuations rather than weekly. 104 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 1: Yes, the problem with those gas turbines standing by is 105 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,600 Speaker 1: when they do come on, they come on when it's expensive, 106 00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 1: when the price is peaking because of demand, and private 107 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 1: generators will wait till they get a very good return 108 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: before turning on their general. 109 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 2: I'd probably flip that and say they should get a 110 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:06,039 Speaker 2: lot of revenue at that time because we're only really 111 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:09,119 Speaker 2: getting paid for those you know, it's only three weeks 112 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 2: a year. They've got to make all their revenue in 113 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 2: that time. So I think that's fine. They deserve good 114 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 2: revenue because the rest of you they're getting zero because 115 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 2: they're not needed. 116 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 1: Did you work out your funding as to what that 117 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,599 Speaker 1: might mean for the average household bill? Would we know 118 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 1: from your eight billion? I mean, is it just a 119 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:28,719 Speaker 1: matter of dividing it by the number of households and 120 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 1: businesses in Australia here? Is that how it would work out? 121 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 1: What do you reckon it would add to a household bill? 122 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 2: Well, we're sort of projecting renewables with all the additional 123 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 2: costs to make them reliable, are about one hundred and 124 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 2: twenty dollars a megwa hour now decreasing to sort of 125 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 2: one hundred dollars in megu what hour in the longer run, 126 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:55,160 Speaker 2: and really that's about sort of what most states are 127 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 2: paying now. So we're not saying, we're not sort of 128 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:06,600 Speaker 2: suggesting in big change to electricity builds probably a little 129 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 2: bit lower because obviously we've just come out of this 130 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 2: massive global gas price crisis which put put electricity builds 131 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 2: up all over the world. But yeah, things will come 132 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 2: down from there, but I don't I don't think I'll 133 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 2: get much more expensive. The only issue we need to 134 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 2: be aware of is that, yes, build the build the 135 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 2: lowest cost technology you can find that'll keep costs down, 136 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 2: but you also need to build enough of it so 137 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 2: that supply the supplies it there still might get price increases. 138 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 1: Indeed, small modular reactors so you reckon one big plan 139 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:43,559 Speaker 1: is opposed to lots of smaller ones. 140 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 2: So with small module actors, we looked those initially because 141 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 2: they're about the right size for Australia. That's about the 142 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 2: same similar size of generation units that we deploy in Australia. 143 00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:01,679 Speaker 2: And the promise was that because the modular the costs 144 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:06,760 Speaker 2: might fall faster over time. Unfortunately, that isn't the way 145 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 2: things have turned out. We've had a poor record of 146 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 2: actually deploying that technology globally, so costs are still high, 147 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 2: sort of double the cost of large scale NUCLAR. So 148 00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 2: that's why people asked us to sort of switch our 149 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 2: attention to large scale nutrient and it is lower cost 150 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 2: than the small ones. 151 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, very interesting. We'll see where it ends up and 152 00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 1: maybe food for thought for politicians on both sides. I 153 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:34,880 Speaker 1: suppose the three hundred and seventy three billion dollar figure 154 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 1: that Chris Bowen was suggesting for the cost of going 155 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 1: nuclear in Australia, that's nowhere near what according to your research, 156 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:47,760 Speaker 1: his figure. I mean, who knows how he got his, 157 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:51,559 Speaker 1: but he had that figure floating around us. This is 158 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 1: what it would cost to replace power stations in Australia 159 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 1: with nuclear power. 160 00:08:57,120 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, we'll go comment directly on that figure. But 161 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 2: essentially we're going to have to spend hundreds of billions 162 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 2: no matter what we deploy. Yeah, that's just the kind 163 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 2: of opening. That's how much you've got to open your 164 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,079 Speaker 2: wallet for anything that you do in the electricity sector. Yes, 165 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 2: but look, the more we spend, the more we're getting 166 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 2: closer to a lower emission system, and some of it 167 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:23,640 Speaker 2: we can spend even more and potentially build new industries 168 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 2: for hydrogen export and so forth. They'll use a one 169 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 2: of electricity. So spending more isn't necessarily a bad thing 170 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 2: as long as we're doing it in the most efficient 171 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 2: way and moving towards our goal. Of a low mission 172 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 2: electricity system. 173 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 1: Paul, really appreciate your time this morning. Thank you, You're welcome. 174 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:45,600 Speaker 1: Paul Graham there, who is CSIRO's chief energy economist and 175 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: gen costs, that's the name of the report lead author, 176 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 1: saying that if we go down this path, well eight 177 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 1: billion is the starting point. Eight point six but likely 178 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:59,319 Speaker 1: because first build to be perhaps even potentially at worst 179 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 1: double that. But if we do it the way South 180 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 1: Korea has done it, they've costed it out to just 181 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 1: over eight and a half billion dollars, So well, where 182 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 1: does that sit with you? Should we look at that? 183 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:15,760 Speaker 1: I mean, Steak Bank give it some relativity here. When 184 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 1: that collapsed in South Australia, that went down with a 185 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 1: price tag of around three point seven billion dollars, so 186 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 1: half a nuclear plant almost in that and based on 187 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 1: those numbers back then three point seven well today that's 188 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:29,560 Speaker 1: a lot of money.