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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Australia signs a free trade deal with the European union

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Speaker 1: bosses and workers and loggerheads over the next minimum wage increase,

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Speaker 1: and the Prudential Regulator warns that rising premiums are going

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Speaker 1: to make insurance too expensive for many households. Plus, the

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Speaker 1: Competition Watchdog keeps a close eye on the airline's pricing.

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Speaker 1: And an oil tanker manages to pass through the Strait

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Speaker 1: of Homuz. It is Wednesday, the twenty fifth of March

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: You're almost out of breath. Michael.

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Speaker 1: Well, they just started as well. It's not a good sign,

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Speaker 1: is it, Sean. The main story this morning, Australia and

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Speaker 1: Europe have finally signed a free trade deal after eight

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Speaker 1: years of negotiations, in a move that signals the determination

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Speaker 1: of economies to keep trade relatively free despite US tariffs.

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Speaker 1: Under the deal, most European made electric cars will be

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Speaker 1: spared from Australia's thirty three percent luxury car tax, while

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Speaker 1: the general five percent tariff on a European cars will

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Speaker 1: be scrapped. Local miners will be blocked from discriminatory pricing

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Speaker 1: of critical minerals for European Union customers. Critical minerals, of

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Speaker 1: which Australia obviously have an abundance of them. Sean they're

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Speaker 1: in high demand for everything from aircraft to phones to

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Speaker 1: green energy. They are pivotal, central to the future and

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Speaker 1: Australian cattle farmers will be able to export up to

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Speaker 1: thirty thousand tons of beef to Europe under an annual

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Speaker 1: tariff free quota. Although a safeguard mechanism will protect EU

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Speaker 1: farmers from a sudden surge of Australian exports.

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Speaker 2: European food into Australia will now be tariff freeze. I

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Speaker 2: think cheaper wine, Michael. That's the way I'm thinking about

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Speaker 2: you when I say that chocolate, ice cream, fruit, veggies,

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Speaker 2: cheese be one. As far as I'm concerned, it's considered

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Speaker 2: a sensitive commodity, so taris will reduce over three years,

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Speaker 2: but we'll get there. The two sites have also compromised

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Speaker 2: over the issue of geographical indicators, which are designed to

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Speaker 2: protect the status of food or beverages produced from a

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Speaker 2: specific location. Prosecco wine, for example, under the deal, pretty

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Speaker 2: much all tariffs on Australian exports to twenty seven members

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Speaker 2: of the European Union will be eliminated. The one big,

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Speaker 2: big exception is steel. Two way trade in goods and

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Speaker 2: services was valued at about sixty five billion euro that's

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Speaker 2: about one hundred and ten billion dollars annually. EU modeling

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Speaker 2: reckons that will increase by our third over the next

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Speaker 2: decade in terms of value to Australia. Prime Minister Anthony

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Speaker 2: Albaneze yesterday said it's worth about ten billion dollars.

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Speaker 1: I love the European ice cream is being kind of

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Speaker 1: mentioned there as well.

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Speaker 2: I must say I don't know. I mean, I'm a

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Speaker 2: connoisseur ice cream fan, always having vanilla connoisseur, but I

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Speaker 2: don't know about the European ice creams. Can't bring it

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Speaker 2: to mind.

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Speaker 1: I don't think my blue ribbon ice cream.

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Speaker 2: Venasieries doesn't have a European ring to it, doesn't no.

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Speaker 1: No in orders streets. I've got very humble tastes when

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Speaker 1: it comes to my ice cream cone Sean the deal though,

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Speaker 1: and others like it in recent months, this is a

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Speaker 1: bigger political element to this right. It very much highlights

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Speaker 1: that Western democracies, apart from the US, believe in open trade.

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Speaker 1: While it still needs to get through parliament here, it's

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Speaker 1: got to get through the European Parliament as well, it

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Speaker 1: is pretty much considered a done deal.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, definitely mean. Negotiations to the agreement began

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Speaker 2: under the Turmbal government back in twenty eighteen, collapsed in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty three. Have a disagreement's about agriculture, but the

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Speaker 2: threat of Trump protectionism sparked the talks and we now

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Speaker 2: have a free trade deal Australian through the EU also

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Speaker 2: struck an agreement on security. European Commission President Slavon de

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Speaker 2: Lane said Australia and Europe's security are increasingly intertwined in

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Speaker 2: a harsh and unforgiving world, adding the distance is no

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Speaker 2: longer a protection or luxury. She was addressing the House

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Speaker 2: of Representatives yesterday. She said that the countries had built

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Speaker 2: economic models on the premise of stability and safety. That's

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Speaker 2: not the case. What I mean. Let me quote her,

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Speaker 2: because a couple of things she said really worth mentioning.

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Speaker 2: The world we live in is brutal, harsh and unforgiving.

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Speaker 2: It feels upside down. What we knew as certainties are

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Speaker 2: in question, the comfort blanket of yesterday is ripped away.

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Speaker 2: It is confronting. And she went on and we are

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Speaker 2: sending a strong signal to the rest of the world

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Speaker 2: that friendship and cooperation is what matters most in times

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Speaker 2: of turbulence. That's fairly pointed, I would say.

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Speaker 1: I think so. Did you know that she was the

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Speaker 1: first female world leader to address the joint sitting of Parliament,

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Speaker 1: which I was actually quite surprised by. Out of twenty

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Speaker 1: world leaders that have addressed a joint sitting, she is

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Speaker 1: the first female leader. So it was quite a significant

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Speaker 1: day yesterday in Canberra.

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Speaker 2: I'm into very very warmly received.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, now Sean spare a thought for investors. It's bad

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Speaker 1: enough when there's wars going on in Europe and the

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Speaker 1: Middle East, but now they've got to put up with

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Speaker 1: really what can only be described as a total mishmash

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Speaker 1: of information. All right, because US President Donald Trump yesterday

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Speaker 1: said ground had been made in talks with Iran, while

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Speaker 1: Iran and Israel basically said the opposite.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no wonder the share markets bouncing around so much,

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Speaker 2: so fell by almost two percent at one point on Monday,

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Speaker 2: closed a bit higher than that. It surged one one

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Speaker 2: and a half percent yesterday morning, then it fell again,

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Speaker 2: finished up slightly to three hundred and seventy nine points.

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Speaker 2: It's just very difficult for investors to know the truth

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Speaker 2: of what's going on. So just twenty four hours ago

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Speaker 2: from when we're recording now, Wall ThReD had surged after

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Speaker 2: US President Donald Trump said he'd postponed military strikes against

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Speaker 2: Iranian energy infrastructure for five days because of productive talks

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Speaker 2: with Tehran to end hostilities. Good news. Iran then comes

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Speaker 2: out and says it's fake news. They're not happening. Israel

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Speaker 2: basically said the same thing. The price of oil had

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Speaker 2: fallen back below one hundred US dollars on back of

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Speaker 2: Trump's comments, and Wall Street had surged by the time

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Speaker 2: the local ix, but no one was quite sure what

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Speaker 2: to believe, so we ended pretty flat. Investors do not

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Speaker 2: like uncertainty. We've talked about that for the six years

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Speaker 2: that we've been doing this show, and these are uncertain times.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And you add into the mix the potential for

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Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia and UAE to get involved in a greater capacity,

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Speaker 1: and it's just and that was all within the space

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Speaker 1: of hours hours. Yeah, yep, all of that happened. Anyway, Sean,

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Speaker 1: We've got a lot still to come. But before we

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Speaker 1: take a break, I want to mention the Q and

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Speaker 1: A episode that we have coming up after the show. Today.

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Speaker 1: You're speaking with one Delgado Morrera, who is the co

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Speaker 1: CEO of Hamilton Lane.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's back. We're talking to him about private

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Speaker 2: markets investing. With all this going on, we often talk

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Speaker 2: about share markets and what's happening to bond markets. So

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Speaker 2: they're the listed markets, the public markets, private markets. We're

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Speaker 2: talking about venture capital, we're talking abright, private capital, we're

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Speaker 2: talking about private equity of course, infrastructure, those sorts of things,

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Speaker 2: and we've sort of haven't spoken a lot about it.

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Speaker 2: So Juan talks about some of the benefits of investing

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Speaker 2: in private markets investing. He's very frank. I mean, he's

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Speaker 2: certainly not just there saying you must do it. He

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Speaker 2: really does give the pros and cons or the good

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Speaker 2: and bad or the risks as well as the potential

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Speaker 2: benefits of private capitals investing were worth lesson.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, really balanced and he really knows this stuff. It's

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Speaker 1: coming up after the show, and a great supporter of

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Speaker 1: fear and greed back in a moment with the rest

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Speaker 1: of the day's business news.

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Speaker 2: Son.

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Speaker 1: The ACTU and employers are at loggerheads over the size

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Speaker 1: of the next minimum wage rise, with the peak union

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Speaker 1: body asking the Fair Work Commission for a five and

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Speaker 1: a half percent increase, while the employers basically saying that

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Speaker 1: anything over three and a half percent would make the

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Speaker 1: economy unstable. The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry has

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Speaker 1: backed a three point five percent increase, as has Australian

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Speaker 1: restaurants and cafes. The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry

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Speaker 1: has said that its claim was based on the RBA's

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Speaker 1: target inflation band of two to three percent plus some

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Speaker 1: allowance for productivity. It's not unusual to have business and

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Speaker 1: the ACTU at loggerheads, though, is it?

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Speaker 2: It is not. The act is higher claim, it says

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Speaker 2: is due to the Middle East conflict and Reserve Bank

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Speaker 2: interstrate rises, and has reserved the right to make a

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Speaker 2: bigger claim if inflation is higher than expected. Now let's

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Speaker 2: put some facts around this. So headline CPI three point

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Speaker 2: eight percent and what it was in twenty twenty five

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Speaker 2: expected to hit four point two percent or more mid

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Speaker 2: year depending on fuel prices, iran, et cetera. So four

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Speaker 2: percent is actually about what inflation is. And so the

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Speaker 2: Act one's five point five employees want three point five.

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Speaker 2: Millions of workers, of course will be affected by the decision,

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Speaker 2: some directly, like tens of thousands directly, but the flow

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Speaker 2: on effect into the modern award wages is significant. That's

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Speaker 2: where the millions comes in. Younger work, it's migrants, casual,

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Speaker 2: part time workers, low skilled work is they're all hit

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Speaker 2: very immediately from this. It actually passes through on July one,

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Speaker 2: So we're going through this whole negotiation process with a

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Speaker 2: fair Work Commission at the moment, how.

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Speaker 1: Much of this negotiation is just kind of posturing essentially,

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Speaker 1: where you've got business saying three and a half, you've

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Speaker 1: got union saying five and a half, and knowing that

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Speaker 1: they're going to land somewhere around that kind of middle

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Speaker 1: of the road, which is kind of roughly in line

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Speaker 1: with where inflation will end up.

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Speaker 2: But that argue with me, But there's a always an

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Speaker 2: end but claim in this so the idea that you

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Speaker 2: know irba's target band two point five percent plus productivity

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Speaker 2: in productivity has been about one percent, so that's three

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Speaker 2: point five percent. That's fine, but we're not actually in

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Speaker 2: the target pent so you can sort of put a

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Speaker 2: hole in that one too. Act is saying you've gotta

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Speaker 2: have five point five percent because of higher fuel prices. Well,

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Speaker 2: hald On inflations only four percent, so you can put

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Speaker 2: a hole in that one as well. So it's definitely

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Speaker 2: but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up about

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Speaker 2: that four percent, which isn't bad, which is not bad,

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Speaker 2: but if we end up at the four percent on

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Speaker 2: July one.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Now the Prudential regulator has won the one in

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Speaker 1: seven houses are currently uninsured and that could rise actually

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Speaker 1: to one in four by twenty fifty years. The price

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Speaker 1: of premiums saws that would be about one million homes

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Speaker 1: without adequate insurance, which is a pretty frightening thought. Stress

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Speaker 1: testing from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority says that regional

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Speaker 1: and rural communities would be disproportionately affected and could hit

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Speaker 1: forty percent in rural areas by twenty.

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Speaker 2: Fifty A bit scary. So APRA's insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment

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Speaker 2: looked at how climate change would affect home insurance affordability

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Speaker 2: and also under insurance. It considered two what it called

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Speaker 2: too severe but plausible global climate related scenarios projected out

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Speaker 2: to twenty fifty. So one is just a lot of

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Speaker 2: weather related events, much higher risk weather related events. The

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Speaker 2: other one greater economic impacts from transitioning to a low

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Speaker 2: emissions economy. Under both scenarios, climate driven pressures on insurance

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Speaker 2: premiums will significantly widen the nation's insurance gap.

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Speaker 3: I e.

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Speaker 2: People won't be able to ensure anymore because mostly premiums

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Speaker 2: are too high. In the higher physical risk scenario, it's

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Speaker 2: a lot more bad weather, which we've seen. Rising losses

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Speaker 2: from more frequent and severe weather events will push premium

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Speaker 2: so much higher that annual losses could rise from about

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Speaker 2: seven billion dollars to day, it's about sixteen billion dollars

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Speaker 2: by twenty fifty. Quite scary, yeah.

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Speaker 1: That is now at Maya's share price closed flat yesterday

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Speaker 1: and it's down more than forty percent this year. Sean

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Speaker 1: after announcing disappointing half year sales as customers cut back

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Speaker 1: on spending. The half started okay with strong sales over

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Speaker 1: Black Friday, but in the six months to twenty four January,

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Speaker 1: the group said sales were pretty flat.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So the department saw chain, which now includes five

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Speaker 2: brands acquired from primary investments, they like just Jean's and Dotty.

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Speaker 2: It's said that it will also re I can say reinvented.

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Speaker 2: I don't think that's quite the right word, Michael. I

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Speaker 2: think it is rein vigor the US Johant Gap. So

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Speaker 2: gapscal be launched into the department store chain. Anyone who

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Speaker 2: has ever lived in the US knows all about GAP.

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Speaker 2: If you include the sales from the five Yew brands

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Speaker 2: which went there twelve months ago, turnover was up twenty

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Speaker 2: five percent, but net profit, the interim dividend they were

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Speaker 2: both lower than forecasts. It just wasn't a rates to

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Speaker 2: the numbers. Now they're trying to turn around that store. Ah,

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Speaker 2: they've just got a lot of work to go. I'd

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Speaker 2: say it's.

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Speaker 1: Like a kind of a reboot kind of thing. They

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Speaker 1: take the TV analogy.

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Speaker 2: It's like the laptop analogy reboot.

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Speaker 1: Oh no, you know how when you have like an

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Speaker 1: old TV show and then you get a reboot of it. Yeah. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: that is largely irrelevant. As we are moving on the

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Speaker 1: Australian Competition and Consumer Commission said it is closely monitoring

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Speaker 1: the domestic airline industry as the Middle East conflict disrupts

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Speaker 1: international air travel and pushes up the price of jet fuel.

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Speaker 1: Flight cancelations, root diversions and airspace closures have increased costs

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Speaker 1: and shifted passenger demand to Asian hubs, which is putting

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Speaker 1: upward pressure on airfares where capacity is constrained.

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Speaker 2: Rising jet fuel prices. Of course, there is also a

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Speaker 2: concern while major airlines hedge part of their fuel needs,

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Speaker 2: sustained high prices could drive up domestic airfares. According to

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Speaker 2: reporting the finn Review, the competition watchdogs that carriers must

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Speaker 2: avoid misleading consumers about the reasons for any price increases.

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Speaker 2: Airline capacity continues to go faster than demand, seats up

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Speaker 2: two percent year on year in January. There's still about

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Speaker 2: three percent below pre COVID nineteen levels. So the industry,

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Speaker 2: whilst we have as many travelers were, don't have as

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Speaker 2: many flights as pre COVID, so we're still not quite there.

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Speaker 1: Okay, turning to international news now, Sean, though we have

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Speaker 1: covered a lot of international news already. An oil super

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Speaker 1: tanker hauling two million barrels over Rak's crude has made

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Speaker 1: it through the Strait of Humus, according to tanker Tracker

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Speaker 1: data right, it is the first vessel observed moving Baghdad's

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Speaker 1: barrels through the waterway since it all but closed to

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Speaker 1: commercial shipping at the start of the war. The Omega Trader,

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Speaker 1: which is managed by Japan's Mitsui Osk Lines, signaled over

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Speaker 1: the past few days that it had reached Mumbai. According

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Speaker 1: to Bloomberg, It's prior signal before reaching India had been

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Speaker 1: from inside the Persian Gulf more than ten days ago.

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Speaker 1: Having said that, Mitsuiosk, in a statement, said that none

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Speaker 1: of its vessels had made the crossing, adding that it

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Speaker 1: was monitoring the situation on a twenty four hour basis

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Speaker 1: and continuing to gather information.

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Speaker 2: So don't you think this fits into who knows what's

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Speaker 2: going on? Category? Like the mish to the.

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Speaker 1: Markets, the mishmash of information that before. That's right.

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Speaker 2: Meanwhile, airlines are canceling flights regularly. Cathe Pacifics cut all

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Speaker 2: passenger and cargo flights to Dubai and Readd until the

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Speaker 2: end of April, and Ritt said it's operating a reduced

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Speaker 2: flight schedule following a partial reopening of regional airspace. Eddie

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Speaker 2: had said it's operating limited commercial flight schedule between Abu

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Speaker 2: Dhabi in some destinations. According to Reuters, the Dunza, Qatar

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Speaker 2: Singapore airlines all reduced schedule flights in the region.

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Speaker 1: All right, Sean, this would normally be where we wrap

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Speaker 1: things up and say goodbye. Not today. Stick with us,

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Speaker 1: because this month we've been doing something a little bit different.

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Speaker 2: We have, Michael, it's the Fear and Greeds Accelerated Series

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Speaker 2: with air Waallex. Basically, we've been exploring what it takes

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Speaker 2: for businesses to grow with out borders and why having

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Speaker 2: a what next mindset can be your competitive advantage. I

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Speaker 2: really enjoy the chat with James Donell. He's co founder

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Speaker 2: and CEO of Ideally, a market research platform using technology

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Speaker 2: to help some of the biggest brands in the world

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Speaker 2: unlock new insights into marketing. Ideally is also an air

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Speaker 2: Wallox customer using the platform to manage their global transactions

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Speaker 2: as well as corporate cards and expense management. James Welkoman

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Speaker 2: and Fear and Greeds Accelerated Series.

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Speaker 3: Hey, good afternoon.

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Speaker 2: We talked about restlessness as a competitive advantage. What does

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Speaker 2: that actually look like in practice inside an organization.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so we constantly have ideas. Our team have very

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Speaker 3: much an abundance mindset, and it comes really from their

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Speaker 3: personal drive to sort of help succeed with the mission

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Speaker 3: that we've outlaid, which is really around reinventing research, and

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Speaker 3: that just creates this constant tension to like constantly trying

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Speaker 3: to be the best and constantly iterate and improve and

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Speaker 3: just create something really meaningful.

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Speaker 2: How do you encourage that and celebrate it and market

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Speaker 2: when you actually do hit a milestone or you do

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Speaker 2: achieve a breakthrough, I mean, how do you sort of

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Speaker 2: create that culture.

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Speaker 3: It's quite topical because we just hit some milestones internally,

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Speaker 3: but it's amazing. Even just a big revenue milestone, we'll

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Speaker 3: give thirty seconds of sort of recognition and have a

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Speaker 3: little celebration, but it's very quickly sort of moving on

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Speaker 3: to the next milestone. And it's a hard game, like

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Speaker 3: we're competing against some big incumbent sort of dinosaurs in

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Speaker 3: the industry, and there are challenges, and so we also

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Speaker 3: celebrate and embrace some of the micro wines, which may

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Speaker 3: not feel like a big win when you're going through

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Speaker 3: a big challenge, but it's just still of celebrating the

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Speaker 3: efforts because we know that that's all going to keep

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Speaker 3: laddering up to some of the bigger outcomes. And so

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Speaker 3: when those bigger outcomes do come and we have a

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Speaker 3: big celebration, and then it's quite satisfying because we've had

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Speaker 3: these sort of micro wins in between.

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Speaker 2: And you mentioned incumbents in your industry. There are a

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Speaker 2: huge number of big names, there are a huge number

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Speaker 2: of smaller companies. How do you break through? How do

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Speaker 2: you actually get above the pack?

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Speaker 3: I we just have to focus on doing something really,

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Speaker 3: really really well and then rapidly bring that to market. Now,

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Speaker 3: we've got a really a head start here, which is

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Speaker 3: we're not starting from a rule book or a legacy product.

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Speaker 3: We started our business in the alfter chat GPT three

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Speaker 3: had been launched, and all the sort of incredible possibilities

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Speaker 3: have come out of that, and so that's what we're

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Speaker 3: building with from a starting point, as well as people

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Speaker 3: that were hiring and bringing into the business with that

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Speaker 3: and that capability as well, and so like a sort

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Speaker 3: of highly tuned machine, we're then just able to solve

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Speaker 3: some hard problems that are even harder with a legacy base.

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Speaker 2: How important the people that you're bringing in. You talked about,

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Speaker 2: you know, solving problems, and you may use chat GPT,

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Speaker 2: but surely at the end of the day, you need

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Speaker 2: people in the organization who actually want to know what's next,

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Speaker 2: who actually want to take that next leap.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So people are the heart of our business. We really

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Speaker 3: celebrate our people, invest a lot in our people. We

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Speaker 3: even just had a whole company off site or all

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Speaker 3: of our people from around the world came to one

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Speaker 3: place and was actually a moment were we had two

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Speaker 3: days and we even said these two days are not

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Speaker 3: to be productive, which is not very typical thing like

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Speaker 3: myself might tell your team, I.

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Speaker 2: Want to come along.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, your shirt's beautiful in New Zealand's very feelings of

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Speaker 3: someone coming from the snow of New York. So it

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Speaker 3: was about connection and connection is really important for us

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Speaker 3: because it's actually from people collaborating and putting bright minds

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Speaker 3: together to solve like sparks, and then the creativity that

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Speaker 3: comes from that and therefore the ability to actually solve

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Speaker 3: some big problems. And so we see a huge benefit

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Speaker 3: out of that investment through the alignment, the close bonds

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Speaker 3: that people develop, and then the sparks to be creative

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Speaker 3: and go fantastic.

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Speaker 2: James, thank you for joining the Accelerator series.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, great, great to speak to you about it.

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Speaker 2: That was James Donald, co founder and CEO of Ideally.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure on that and this is the Accelerator Series

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Speaker 2: brought to you by air Wallos that build the future.

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Speaker 2: Visit air wallocks dot com to find out more.