1 00:00:03,960 --> 00:00:06,539 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed daily interview. I'm Sean 2 00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:09,869 Sean Aylmer: Aylmer. Earning season is now all done. And overall it 3 00:00:09,869 --> 00:00:12,299 Sean Aylmer: was probably a bit on the disappointing side, maybe a 4 00:00:12,300 --> 00:00:15,150 Sean Aylmer: bit soft. There was some standout performances, of course, but 5 00:00:15,150 --> 00:00:18,268 Sean Aylmer: overall it seemed like labor shortages and high costs are 6 00:00:18,270 --> 00:00:20,730 Sean Aylmer: hitting a lot of companies quite hard. I wanted to 7 00:00:20,730 --> 00:00:23,370 Sean Aylmer: talk to Roger Montgomery for his take on the winners 8 00:00:23,370 --> 00:00:26,099 Sean Aylmer: and losers and what investors should be thinking about now 9 00:00:26,099 --> 00:00:29,250 Sean Aylmer: that it's all done. Remember, this is general information only. 10 00:00:29,250 --> 00:00:32,369 Sean Aylmer: You should get professional advice before making any investment decisions. 11 00:00:32,700 --> 00:00:35,759 Sean Aylmer: Roger Montgomery is the founder and chief investment officer of 12 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:39,120 Sean Aylmer: Montgomery Investment Management. Roger, welcome back to Fear and Greed. 13 00:00:39,210 --> 00:00:40,140 Roger Montgomery: Good to be with you, gents. 14 00:00:40,860 --> 00:00:44,040 Sean Aylmer: So what are the key themes out of earnings season? 15 00:00:44,429 --> 00:00:47,070 Roger Montgomery: Well, I think it was all well flagged. There weren't 16 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:52,289 Roger Montgomery: a huge number of enormous surprises. So about just slightly 17 00:00:52,289 --> 00:00:56,310 Roger Montgomery: less than a third of companies came in line or reported 18 00:00:56,310 --> 00:01:02,760 Roger Montgomery: in line with expectations. Slightly more than 40% beat expectations 19 00:01:03,150 --> 00:01:07,619 Roger Montgomery: and the remainder disappointed. I really do think though that 20 00:01:08,459 --> 00:01:12,660 Roger Montgomery: the overwhelming influence on stock prices from the results will 21 00:01:12,660 --> 00:01:16,650 Roger Montgomery: actually come through in September rather than immediately after the 22 00:01:16,650 --> 00:01:21,839 Roger Montgomery: results. And that's because some days are becoming quite overwhelming 23 00:01:21,900 --> 00:01:25,620 Roger Montgomery: for analysts to actually process. On a busy day you'll 24 00:01:25,620 --> 00:01:28,859 Roger Montgomery: have more than 110 companies reporting, and there's absolutely no 25 00:01:28,859 --> 00:01:32,400 Roger Montgomery: way that you can analyze the results in sufficient detail 26 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:35,430 Roger Montgomery: to be able to make a wise investment decision on 27 00:01:35,430 --> 00:01:39,839 Roger Montgomery: 110 different stocks. And so I think it'll be this 28 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:44,700 Roger Montgomery: post reporting period where analysts and portfolio managers have the 29 00:01:44,700 --> 00:01:48,630 Roger Montgomery: opportunity to meet with companies or with brokers and analysts 30 00:01:48,630 --> 00:01:51,120 Roger Montgomery: that are covering those companies. And they'll be able to 31 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:55,710 Roger Montgomery: make wiser decisions about whether or not those particular companies 32 00:01:55,710 --> 00:01:58,950 Roger Montgomery: deserve a place in portfolios. And the other reason why, 33 00:01:59,880 --> 00:02:02,130 Roger Montgomery: well, I'll just say it this way, I think that 34 00:02:02,130 --> 00:02:05,760 Roger Montgomery: it's perhaps more relevant at the moment for investors what's 35 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:08,550 Roger Montgomery: happening on a macro level, which seems to be overwhelming 36 00:02:09,030 --> 00:02:11,520 Roger Montgomery: what's happening on an individual company level at the moment. 37 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,120 Sean Aylmer: And that's very much an outlook for interest rates and 38 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:18,090 Sean Aylmer: inflation and potential recession what's happening in China, that sort 39 00:02:18,090 --> 00:02:18,390 Sean Aylmer: of thing. 40 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:21,059 Roger Montgomery: Indeed, and perhaps something that I don't hear a lot 41 00:02:21,059 --> 00:02:24,929 Roger Montgomery: of, there's an enormous amount of talk about interest rates. 42 00:02:25,139 --> 00:02:28,769 Roger Montgomery: There's far less talk about what's happening in global liquidity 43 00:02:29,130 --> 00:02:31,560 Roger Montgomery: and what central banks are doing with their balance sheets. 44 00:02:31,889 --> 00:02:36,119 Roger Montgomery: And interestingly, the correlation is very high between stock market 45 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:39,089 Roger Montgomery: moves at the moment on a weekly and monthly basis. 46 00:02:39,389 --> 00:02:41,639 Roger Montgomery: And what central banks in aggregate are doing in terms 47 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,790 Roger Montgomery: of their balance sheets. So from January through to June, 48 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:48,780 Roger Montgomery: there was a significant reduction in global liquidity as a 49 00:02:48,780 --> 00:02:52,289 Roger Montgomery: result of banks or quantitative tapering, if you like. And 50 00:02:52,290 --> 00:02:55,139 Roger Montgomery: then of course in July, well, not of course, but 51 00:02:55,139 --> 00:02:59,849 Roger Montgomery: in July the banks, I think blinked and paused on 52 00:02:59,850 --> 00:03:03,060 Roger Montgomery: the shrinking of their balance sheets. And the consequence of 53 00:03:03,060 --> 00:03:05,250 Roger Montgomery: that of course, was the very significant rally that we 54 00:03:05,250 --> 00:03:07,620 Roger Montgomery: saw in stock prices. So I think those sorts of 55 00:03:07,620 --> 00:03:11,309 Roger Montgomery: things are perhaps overwhelming what's going on this reporting season. 56 00:03:11,490 --> 00:03:14,340 Roger Montgomery: In the absence of those, we might have seen some 57 00:03:14,340 --> 00:03:18,060 Roger Montgomery: more determined or more consistent moves that reflected the results. 58 00:03:18,060 --> 00:03:25,110 Sean Aylmer: Okay. So given that macroeconomic overview, if we look at 59 00:03:25,110 --> 00:03:27,270 Sean Aylmer: what some of these companies have said and what it's 60 00:03:27,270 --> 00:03:28,980 Sean Aylmer: kind of the next 12 months or say, so that 61 00:03:28,980 --> 00:03:32,969 Sean Aylmer: macro variables do still dominate, but over time kind of 62 00:03:32,969 --> 00:03:35,129 Sean Aylmer: individual stocks will obviously outperform and not? 63 00:03:35,369 --> 00:03:37,830 Roger Montgomery: Oh, indeed. And that is absolutely correct. And that's why 64 00:03:37,980 --> 00:03:39,270 Roger Montgomery: it provides a great opportunity. 65 00:03:39,330 --> 00:03:44,369 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. Okay. So what I mean, companies who have pricing 66 00:03:44,370 --> 00:03:46,470 Sean Aylmer: power are in a much better position it seems. 67 00:03:46,740 --> 00:03:50,640 Roger Montgomery: Yeah, definitely. Let's take the example of Kohl's. Kohl's demonstrated 68 00:03:50,969 --> 00:03:53,849 Roger Montgomery: aside from the fact they're losing share to Woolworths, they 69 00:03:53,850 --> 00:03:58,260 Roger Montgomery: demonstrated they weren't able to leverage food inflation and that's 70 00:03:58,260 --> 00:04:02,550 Roger Montgomery: surprising. I think those store war type businesses, Willies and 71 00:04:02,550 --> 00:04:06,929 Roger Montgomery: Kohl's and Wesfarmers, there's an expectation built into their share 72 00:04:06,929 --> 00:04:11,490 Roger Montgomery: prices and the investment thesis that they can leverage food 73 00:04:11,490 --> 00:04:14,550 Roger Montgomery: inflation, pass it on to the consumer. But what we're 74 00:04:14,550 --> 00:04:18,089 Roger Montgomery: seeing is the consumers share of wallet is shrinking that 75 00:04:18,089 --> 00:04:22,020 Roger Montgomery: it has discretionary. And so consumers are trading down even 76 00:04:22,020 --> 00:04:24,839 Roger Montgomery: in food. So where they might have bought a steak 77 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:28,409 Roger Montgomery: they're buying mints. And if inflation continues to be worse 78 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:31,289 Roger Montgomery: where they might have bought beef mints, they'll switch to 79 00:04:31,290 --> 00:04:35,550 Roger Montgomery: chicken or pork and go for cheaper mints, even within 80 00:04:35,550 --> 00:04:39,809 Roger Montgomery: the cheaper categories of mint. And so we are seeing a lot 81 00:04:39,809 --> 00:04:42,809 Roger Montgomery: of that movement. The other thing in terms of inflation 82 00:04:42,809 --> 00:04:45,330 Roger Montgomery: that I think is important to remember is that, the 83 00:04:45,330 --> 00:04:49,229 Roger Montgomery: CEOs of these companies are listening to the Fear and 84 00:04:49,230 --> 00:04:52,799 Roger Montgomery: Greed podcast. They're reading articles that I write in The 85 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:56,760 Roger Montgomery: Australia, and then they're mouthing that stuff back to the 86 00:04:56,760 --> 00:05:00,330 Roger Montgomery: investors. So there's a loop that goes on here. So 87 00:05:00,330 --> 00:05:04,199 Roger Montgomery: it's really difficult to discern what's actually not being influenced 88 00:05:04,199 --> 00:05:05,729 Roger Montgomery: by the stuff we are writing and saying. 89 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:08,370 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Roger, we'll be back in a minute. 90 00:05:14,700 --> 00:05:17,428 Sean Aylmer: My guest this morning is Roger Montgomery, founder and chief 91 00:05:17,428 --> 00:05:22,320 Sean Aylmer: investment officer of Montgomery Investment Management. Well, what about those 92 00:05:22,709 --> 00:05:24,839 Sean Aylmer: who really do have pricing power? And I mean, I 93 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:28,770 Sean Aylmer: suppose Kohl's companies are the biggest example of that. How long 94 00:05:28,770 --> 00:05:30,150 Sean Aylmer: does that last? 95 00:05:31,140 --> 00:05:33,719 Roger Montgomery: Well, firstly, you got to remember there are discretionary items 96 00:05:33,719 --> 00:05:36,450 Roger Montgomery: and there are non- discretionary and presumably heating your home 97 00:05:36,450 --> 00:05:40,469 Roger Montgomery: and powering the lights is non- discretionary. So there is a lot 98 00:05:40,469 --> 00:05:43,289 Roger Montgomery: more pricing power there. When you think about pricing power, 99 00:05:43,290 --> 00:05:48,390 Roger Montgomery: you think about elasticity of demand. How flexible are consumers 100 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,389 Roger Montgomery: in terms of the choices that they have and can 101 00:05:51,389 --> 00:05:54,029 Roger Montgomery: make when prices go up or they don't like the 102 00:05:54,029 --> 00:05:56,789 Roger Montgomery: price that's being charged. And when it comes to Kohl's, which 103 00:05:56,790 --> 00:05:59,159 Roger Montgomery: is the example that you've given, there's probably not many 104 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:03,150 Roger Montgomery: alternatives. The alternatives that exist are fundamentally at the moment 105 00:06:03,150 --> 00:06:06,360 Roger Montgomery: more expensive. They're coming down of course green energy is 106 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:08,729 Roger Montgomery: coming down and it will continue to do so, but 107 00:06:08,730 --> 00:06:11,459 Roger Montgomery: at the moment it's still an expensive alternative for most 108 00:06:11,460 --> 00:06:15,419 Roger Montgomery: people. So Kohl's probably not a good example of the 109 00:06:15,420 --> 00:06:17,849 Roger Montgomery: businesses that might suffer if prices are raised. 110 00:06:18,570 --> 00:06:21,390 Sean Aylmer: Yep. Okay. I want to ask you about retailers. So 111 00:06:21,390 --> 00:06:26,070 Sean Aylmer: we talked about the Woolworth, Kohl's, but the discretion retailers and 112 00:06:26,190 --> 00:06:30,629 Sean Aylmer: the online retailers, some of this, particularly online retailers, some 113 00:06:30,630 --> 00:06:32,369 Sean Aylmer: of them didn't look real good at the end of 114 00:06:32,370 --> 00:06:33,269 Sean Aylmer: this earning season. 115 00:06:33,359 --> 00:06:38,310 Roger Montgomery: No, that's right. There were some good ones. So Kogan for example, was a business that wasn't great, 116 00:06:38,610 --> 00:06:41,370 Roger Montgomery: but then you had Lovisa, which just shot the lights 117 00:06:41,370 --> 00:06:45,000 Roger Montgomery: out. And I think market was really, really excited about 118 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:48,779 Roger Montgomery: that business and its ability to continue to grow. It's 119 00:06:48,779 --> 00:06:52,469 Roger Montgomery: going for world domination. Don't forget that. And it's got 120 00:06:52,469 --> 00:06:54,810 Roger Montgomery: great people at the helm who are running it. And 121 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:57,930 Roger Montgomery: then of course, you've got a business like Kogan, which 122 00:06:58,230 --> 00:07:02,520 Roger Montgomery: suffered from, I think the cost of its products increasing, 123 00:07:02,910 --> 00:07:05,880 Roger Montgomery: but more importantly, I think it suffered from not only 124 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:09,359 Roger Montgomery: that shrinking share of wallet that's available for discretionary spending, 125 00:07:09,750 --> 00:07:14,340 Roger Montgomery: but also a switch that's occurring from spending on goods 126 00:07:14,490 --> 00:07:17,820 Roger Montgomery: to spending on services. I call it the economics of 127 00:07:17,820 --> 00:07:21,089 Roger Montgomery: enough. I've I've been doing this now for 33 years 128 00:07:21,510 --> 00:07:23,849 Roger Montgomery: and I've seen it several times where you get a 129 00:07:23,849 --> 00:07:27,569 Roger Montgomery: big surge of spending. And I remember in the late 130 00:07:27,570 --> 00:07:31,530 Roger Montgomery: 1990s, the big item that people spent money on, they 131 00:07:31,530 --> 00:07:35,970 Roger Montgomery: borrowed against their house, or they redrew on their mortgages 132 00:07:35,970 --> 00:07:39,540 Roger Montgomery: to buy BMW X5s. And that was something that I wrote 133 00:07:39,540 --> 00:07:43,679 Roger Montgomery: about at the time. Everyone needed a BMW X5, but then what 134 00:07:43,679 --> 00:07:46,740 Roger Montgomery: happens after that surge, after that big spike in spending 135 00:07:47,039 --> 00:07:49,500 Roger Montgomery: you get a period of indigestion and I call it 136 00:07:49,500 --> 00:07:52,560 Roger Montgomery: the economics of enough. It's when people have just decided, 137 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:56,130 Roger Montgomery: you know what, I've bought enough stuff and I just 138 00:07:56,130 --> 00:07:59,160 Roger Montgomery: don't need to buy anymore. And I think Kogan is 139 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:03,240 Roger Montgomery: a victim of that during the pandemic in lockdown, people 140 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:06,689 Roger Montgomery: were spending money. They weren't working from home. As people 141 00:08:06,690 --> 00:08:10,320 Roger Montgomery: thought they were, they were actually surfing the internet buying 142 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:13,290 Roger Montgomery: stuff that was being delivered to their door, drinking and 143 00:08:13,290 --> 00:08:15,750 Roger Montgomery: gambling, and maybe doing a bit of work as well, 144 00:08:16,110 --> 00:08:18,360 Roger Montgomery: but not as much as the other things, according to 145 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:20,280 Roger Montgomery: all the stats that I saw in all the companies 146 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:24,569 Roger Montgomery: I spoke to. And so now that's shifting and there's 147 00:08:24,570 --> 00:08:29,070 Roger Montgomery: probably going to be a relatively greater shift towards spending 148 00:08:29,070 --> 00:08:32,370 Roger Montgomery: on services. And by that, I mean, entertainment, dinners, going 149 00:08:32,370 --> 00:08:36,059 Roger Montgomery: out, that sort of thing. And so discretionary retailers are 150 00:08:36,059 --> 00:08:39,210 Roger Montgomery: also suffering from that. And for some of them it's going 151 00:08:39,450 --> 00:08:42,870 Roger Montgomery: be a particularly difficult Christmas because they've also built up 152 00:08:42,870 --> 00:08:46,559 Roger Montgomery: their inventory and that surprised analysts as well, that many 153 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:49,679 Roger Montgomery: cases inventory had been built up in anticipation of a 154 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:54,419 Roger Montgomery: really strong spending event towards Christmas. But we may find, 155 00:08:54,420 --> 00:08:57,088 Roger Montgomery: and I don't know, who's going to be the worst 156 00:08:57,089 --> 00:08:58,949 Roger Montgomery: at this, but we may find that there's a lot of 157 00:08:58,949 --> 00:09:02,010 Roger Montgomery: discounting that goes on between now and Christmas as a 158 00:09:02,010 --> 00:09:05,160 Roger Montgomery: consequence of that buildup in inventory for retailers in the 159 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:06,420 Roger Montgomery: discretionary spending space. 160 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:11,070 Sean Aylmer: Okay. So just rapping this up a bit, what should 161 00:09:11,070 --> 00:09:13,500 Sean Aylmer: investors be thinking about for the next six to 12 162 00:09:13,500 --> 00:09:16,109 Sean Aylmer: months? So retail investors out there, what should they be 163 00:09:16,109 --> 00:09:18,900 Sean Aylmer: keeping an eye on to understand better where they should 164 00:09:18,900 --> 00:09:19,920 Sean Aylmer: be putting their money? 165 00:09:20,100 --> 00:09:22,950 Roger Montgomery: So I think what investors should be focused on is 166 00:09:23,010 --> 00:09:28,530 Roger Montgomery: quality and growth and looking for businesses, particularly in the 167 00:09:28,530 --> 00:09:31,228 Roger Montgomery: more volatile small- cap space. There are businesses there that 168 00:09:31,230 --> 00:09:35,819 Roger Montgomery: are growing structurally. Their growth is not beholden to the 169 00:09:35,820 --> 00:09:40,078 Roger Montgomery: economic cycle. It's not being influenced by inflation and where 170 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:44,760 Roger Montgomery: structural growth is. For example, cloud computing and telecommunications, where 171 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:49,080 Roger Montgomery: structural growth is occurring there's going to be continued growth. 172 00:09:49,380 --> 00:09:52,619 Roger Montgomery: At the moment, investors are very nervous about growth companies 173 00:09:52,619 --> 00:09:56,880 Roger Montgomery: because for quite some time, the PEs have been elevated, 174 00:09:57,210 --> 00:10:00,900 Roger Montgomery: but as those PEs compress, you are more certain of 175 00:10:00,900 --> 00:10:03,780 Roger Montgomery: a great return. If you buy a business with strong 176 00:10:03,780 --> 00:10:09,120 Roger Montgomery: and sustainable EPS growth. In the midcap to large cap 177 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:12,959 Roger Montgomery: space, you take a business like REA Group every year 178 00:10:13,020 --> 00:10:15,510 Roger Montgomery: there are young analysts that turn up that are new 179 00:10:15,510 --> 00:10:19,470 Roger Montgomery: to the job, and they believe that REA's revenues and 180 00:10:19,470 --> 00:10:24,360 Roger Montgomery: EBITDA are linked to house prices. So when house prices 181 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:27,389 Roger Montgomery: come down, they think that REA is going to suffer. When in 182 00:10:27,389 --> 00:10:31,110 Roger Montgomery: actual fact REA, its revenues are linked to the number 183 00:10:31,110 --> 00:10:34,170 Roger Montgomery: of listings and its ability to raise prices, which it 184 00:10:34,170 --> 00:10:36,480 Roger Montgomery: has been able to do almost annually for the last 185 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:40,080 Roger Montgomery: decade. So there's a business that has grown its revenue, 186 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:44,399 Roger Montgomery: it's EBITDA, it's NPA by 23 to 25% per annum 187 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:47,639 Roger Montgomery: for the last 12 years or so, or even 15 188 00:10:47,639 --> 00:10:51,900 Roger Montgomery: years, and despite that, because people think property prices are 189 00:10:51,900 --> 00:10:54,480 Roger Montgomery: going to fall and that may infact happen, and indeed 190 00:10:54,630 --> 00:10:57,358 Roger Montgomery: it already is happening, but it's share price went from $ 191 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:03,299 Roger Montgomery: 180 down to $93, 77, then back up to 130 odd dollars. So that's 192 00:11:03,299 --> 00:11:06,208 Roger Montgomery: the sort of business that if we get another leg 193 00:11:06,208 --> 00:11:10,710 Roger Montgomery: down in the stock market, which is possible if central banks continue 194 00:11:10,710 --> 00:11:16,499 Roger Montgomery: to taper their quantitative monetary policy, if they continue to 195 00:11:16,500 --> 00:11:19,228 Roger Montgomery: do that and their balance sheets shrink, and we find 196 00:11:19,230 --> 00:11:22,679 Roger Montgomery: liquidity starts to tighten, then what we might find is 197 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:28,560 Roger Montgomery: globally, a wave of credit ratings downgrades, and contracting liquidity 198 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:30,750 Roger Montgomery: that could bring the stock market down. If that does 199 00:11:30,750 --> 00:11:32,910 Roger Montgomery: happen. And I don't know if it will, but if 200 00:11:32,910 --> 00:11:35,099 Roger Montgomery: it does happen, that should be seen as an opportunity 201 00:11:35,099 --> 00:11:37,949 Roger Montgomery: rather than a risk. And the opportunity is to buy 202 00:11:37,950 --> 00:11:41,488 Roger Montgomery: those really high quality businesses, REA for example, in the 203 00:11:41,490 --> 00:11:46,860 Roger Montgomery: midcap, large cap space, CBO in small-sap space, businesses like 204 00:11:46,890 --> 00:11:51,179 Roger Montgomery: Macquarie Telecom, for example, those structural growth businesses. If share 205 00:11:51,179 --> 00:11:53,820 Roger Montgomery: prices come off for those businesses, it's an opportunity to 206 00:11:53,820 --> 00:11:56,010 Roger Montgomery: take advantage of them and put them in your portfolio. 207 00:11:56,759 --> 00:11:58,559 Sean Aylmer: Roger, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 208 00:11:58,859 --> 00:11:59,279 Roger Montgomery: A pleasure. 209 00:11:59,910 --> 00:12:02,640 Sean Aylmer: That was Roger Montgomery, founder and chief investment officer of 210 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:05,578 Sean Aylmer: Montgomery Investment Management. This is the Fear and Greed daily 211 00:12:05,580 --> 00:12:08,340 Sean Aylmer: interview. Remember this information is general in nature and you 212 00:12:08,340 --> 00:12:11,880 Sean Aylmer: should seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. Join 213 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,070 Sean Aylmer: us every morning for the full episode of Fear and 214 00:12:14,070 --> 00:12:17,848 Sean Aylmer: Greed, Australia's most popular business podcast. I'm Sean Aylmer. Enjoy 215 00:12:17,850 --> 00:12:18,030 Sean Aylmer: your day.