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Speaker 1: Treasurer Jim Chalmers announces another budget surplus and billions of

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Speaker 1: dollars in cost of living relief. BHP's second bid for

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Speaker 1: Anglo American has rejected, and meme shares are back. Maybe

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Speaker 1: welcome to fear and Greed. Daily business news for people

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Speaker 1: who make their own decisions. It is Wednesday, the fifteenth

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Speaker 1: of May twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning,

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Speaker 1: Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Sean. You are looking very excited this morning.

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Speaker 2: But very tired.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, very tired, but also you've got that kind of

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Speaker 1: post budget glow about you.

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Speaker 2: Hello.

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Speaker 1: Yes, much as your guest does today. Our resident economist,

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Speaker 1: you're speaking to him after the show, Stephen Coculus.

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Speaker 2: Ah. Stephen loves a good budget. He rates this one's

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Speaker 2: as of mid ranking. He's spent thirty eight years covering budgets,

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Speaker 2: from his time when he first started as a graduate

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Speaker 2: at the Department of Treasury through to life last night.

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Speaker 2: He reckons this is like a mid one. Very excited

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Speaker 2: about some of the spending initiatives, very exciting about some

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Speaker 2: of the revenue. Kind of interesting what he says about

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Speaker 2: the economic forecasts as well. So certainly, certainly well worth Junior.

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Speaker 2: It's always worth tuning in Stephen on Monday morning. Well,

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Speaker 2: what a bonus a Wednesday morning, Stephen could coolest take

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Speaker 2: it is?

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Speaker 1: It is a bonus. It is must listen budget analysis.

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Speaker 1: It is well worth sticking around for after the show

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Speaker 1: that's coming up a bit later on, because that is

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Speaker 1: the main story as well. This morning Shaw and the

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Speaker 1: federal government has announced cost of living measures including three

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Speaker 1: hundred dollars in power bill discounts for every household and

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Speaker 1: a second straight budget surplus.

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Speaker 2: Treasure Jim Chalmers delivered his third budget and second surplus,

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Speaker 2: something he says hasn't happened in two decades. Well that's

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Speaker 2: the two straight surpluses that is. He said. There were

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Speaker 2: five main priority areas for the government, cost of living relief,

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Speaker 2: more homes, the government's future made in Australian policy, strengthening

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Speaker 2: Medicare and the care economy, and responsible economic management. The

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Speaker 2: centerpiece was cost of living relief, including that three hundred

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Speaker 2: dollars for every household, three hundred and twenty five dollars

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Speaker 2: for many small businesses to offset energy costs. It's in

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Speaker 2: the form of a rebate, not a handout. There's also

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Speaker 2: red assistance, which combined with energy measures, should lower inflation,

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Speaker 2: though some critics have suggested it artificially lower infations. But

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Speaker 2: cerning the line that CPI will come down, there's also

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Speaker 2: big spending on wage increases in the care sector and

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Speaker 2: a jump in defense spending. The future made an Australia

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Speaker 2: strategy includes thirteen billion dollars in production tax credits for

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Speaker 2: critical mineral extraction and clean hydrogen production. The bottom line

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Speaker 2: this year comes in at a nine point three billion

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Speaker 2: dollar surplus, though big, big deficits in total, one hundred

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Speaker 2: and twelve billion dollars are forecast over the following four years.

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Speaker 2: The Governor's forecasts inflation rate will fallth within the Reserve

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Speaker 2: banks two to three percent target this year. That's because

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Speaker 2: of those energy rebates. It's also downgraded its growth forecast

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Speaker 2: just one point seven five percent this financial year and

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Speaker 2: two percent next financial year.

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Speaker 1: Sean, I'm going to get you to flip a coin

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Speaker 1: for me. Actually, now that I think about it, it's

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Speaker 1: a three sided coin. I don't know whether that actually exists.

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Speaker 1: Slip a triangle for me. Good budget, bad budget, election budget.

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Speaker 2: Certainly it's an election budget. I'm going to go safe.

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Speaker 2: There money for energy costs and an inflation rate within

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Speaker 2: the Reserve Banks target range, potentially meaning rate cuts would

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Speaker 2: certainly help the government's prospects at the next pole, which

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Speaker 2: is due within twelve months. Stage three tax cuts won't

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Speaker 2: hurt the government either, nor will all that extra rent assistance.

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Speaker 2: There's also the cut to hex or should I say

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Speaker 2: help debt for the students. There's a bunch of future

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Speaker 2: made in Australia incentives, loans and investments, though they're further

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Speaker 2: out and mostly there for renewable energy, green metals and

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Speaker 2: critical minerals projects. It kind of all sounds too good

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Speaker 2: to be true. We've got a surface. Plus all this

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Speaker 2: spending it isn't in a sense revenues rolling in. That's

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Speaker 2: what allows the government to do it. Plus spending on

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Speaker 2: welfare payments is much lower than expected as the unemployment

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Speaker 2: rate stays low. Much of the big spending items don't

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Speaker 2: occur for at least twelve months or beyond. That's why

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Speaker 2: Jim Chalmers keeps saying inflation first, growth next. Bottom line

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Speaker 2: here is a government will make things better in the

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Speaker 2: short term, an electioneer in terms of the cost of living,

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Speaker 2: but it doesn't really do much. This budget doesn't do

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Speaker 2: much at least in terms of economic sensibility for the

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Speaker 2: future years. Much of the spending of the future years

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Speaker 2: is aimed at beating players like China in solar panels

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Speaker 2: and stuff like that. That certainly won't be easy taking

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Speaker 2: on people like China, in some cases in the mineral sector,

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Speaker 2: taking on the US not easy at worst. It is

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Speaker 2: folly all right.

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Speaker 1: Now, all of this happened last night, well after local

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Speaker 1: markets have closed. But how do they perform? Yesterday?

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Speaker 2: This and PASX two hundred closed down attached or zero

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Speaker 2: point three percent to seven hundred and twenty seven points

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Speaker 2: after a week leading from Wall Street. Industrials and real

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Speaker 2: estate stocks did worst, while consumer discretionary did best. Wasn't

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Speaker 2: a massive day in the market ahead of last night's budget.

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Speaker 2: We could expect to see a bit more action today.

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Speaker 2: I'd say the banks are generally lower than the Commonwealth

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Speaker 2: Bank ended flat. Rio led the big miners lower, dropping

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Speaker 2: more than one percent. Transurban and QB were among the

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Speaker 2: worst of the large caps, while Woollies and West Farmers

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Speaker 2: were among the best.

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Speaker 1: Michael, and what about international markets?

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Speaker 2: Oil and goal prices are pretty flat? Bitcoin is training

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Speaker 2: at sixty one five hundred US dollars announced Ossie dollars

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Speaker 2: fetching around sixty six US cents. Not a lot of

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Speaker 2: response after last night's budget.

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Speaker 1: Big Big day, plenty to get through. Will be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 1: Sean BHP has made a second bid for Anglo American

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Speaker 1: worth around sixty four point four billion dollars, and once

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Speaker 1: again the board of the UK based miner has said no.

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Speaker 2: It came ahead of Ango Americans management outlining a new

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Speaker 2: strategy overnight which is supposed to revive the ALI. The

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Speaker 2: new bid is about five billion dollars more than the

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Speaker 2: initial offer made last month and would involve BHP issuing

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Speaker 2: about forty seven billion dollars worth of new shares. The

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Speaker 2: structure was similar to the original offer, whereby BHP would

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Speaker 2: sell controlling stakes in two listed South African mining companies.

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Speaker 2: After being rejected, BHP CEO Mike Henry said he was

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Speaker 2: disappointed that Anglo's directors weren't willing to enter into further discussions.

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Speaker 2: He said the combined portfolio of the two miners would

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Speaker 2: have high quality assets in copper, potash, iron and metallurgical

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Speaker 2: cob Now there is some time pressure on BHP here

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Speaker 2: because the United Kingdoms put up or shut up take

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Speaker 2: over laws means that the Big Australian has until May

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Speaker 2: twenty two to get Anglo to the table or make

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Speaker 2: a firm bid.

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Speaker 1: Put up or shut up takeover laws. That's a great

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Speaker 1: name for it, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it just means that they can't just sort of

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Speaker 2: mumble around for months and months saying we might make

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Speaker 2: a bid, we might not, and sort of fluff around,

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Speaker 2: which I actually think is a pretty good idea.

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Speaker 1: It's the whole thing that you I mean, I keep

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Speaker 1: referring to this. One of the things that you have

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Speaker 1: taught me over a long period of time on this

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Speaker 1: podcast is that to business, certainty is all important, and

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Speaker 1: to investors certainty is all important. And that's kind of

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Speaker 1: what this is aimed at, kind of giving some certainty

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Speaker 1: that either make a bid, get on with it, or

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Speaker 1: just go away.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly right, there we go.

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Speaker 1: Sowing back to politics, Prime Minister Anthony Alberzi says Labor

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Speaker 1: will cut the immigration intake to below three hundred thousand,

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Speaker 1: down from the record five hundred and forty eight thousand

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Speaker 1: intake in the year to September twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 2: A jump in international students and temporary workers pushed up

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Speaker 2: arrivals last year and the surge has probably already peaked.

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Speaker 2: Annual population growth for the September quarter last year hit

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Speaker 2: two and a half percent, which was the highest in

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Speaker 2: more than seventy years. Mister Alberzi said the government wants

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Speaker 2: to bring immigration down to about half of that peak,

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Speaker 2: which was one hundred and forty five thousand for that quarter.

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Speaker 2: You half that times by four, you're getting a number

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Speaker 2: less than three hundred thousand. Michael. As part of last

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Speaker 2: night's budget, the government outline ways in which it hopes

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Speaker 2: to reduce the numbers, including a clamp down on integrity

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Speaker 2: measures for students in higher education. Is trail been easy?

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Speaker 2: He said? It was important that people travel to Australia

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Speaker 2: to be educated, but he doesn't want the system gained.

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Speaker 1: Love that you no longer make any assumptions that I

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Speaker 1: have already done the maths in my head and you

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Speaker 1: actually just explain it for me, just like we've reached

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Speaker 1: a very comfortable place in our working relationship.

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Speaker 2: Here, Sean, what I phone fascinating about you? Michael is

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Speaker 2: that when it comes you are highly intelligent and extremely numrous.

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Speaker 2: There is no doubt about that. Yet when it comes

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Speaker 2: to really simple maths on the spot, you're just not

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Speaker 2: that good.

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Speaker 1: I'm part of the smartphone generation, Sean. We have become

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Speaker 1: dependent on smartphones and the calculators within them for really

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Speaker 1: simple maths, and as a result, I think that part

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Speaker 1: of my brain has actually died.

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Speaker 2: For those listeners who don't know, Michael actually topped the

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Speaker 2: state in maths in his final year twelve. So we're

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Speaker 2: talking about a guy here who is seriously bright at maths,

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Speaker 2: yet you ask you ask him to do something quickly.

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Speaker 2: It just makes me feel a bit better knowing that

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Speaker 2: you are that smart. And then when it comes to calculations.

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Speaker 1: Anyway, I've got the phone under the table pretending to

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Speaker 1: have worked it out in my head. It's all smoke

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Speaker 1: and mirrors, Sean. That's it. Let's get away from this,

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Speaker 1: let's get back to the show. Quantas will stop its

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Speaker 1: direct flights to mainland China due to a lack of

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Speaker 1: demand as tourists from the world's second most populous nation

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Speaker 1: stay away from Australia.

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Speaker 2: In July last year, Quantus relaunched at Sydney Shanghai route,

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Speaker 2: but yesterday said a lack of demand meant it will

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Speaker 2: shut the corridor for Quantus flights. Planes on the route

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Speaker 2: were often just half full, Quantus said, and now the

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Speaker 2: airline will rely on partners and flights to Hong Kong

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Speaker 2: to fairy people into mainland China. The route will be

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Speaker 2: replaced by a Brisbane to Manila flight. This came as

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Speaker 2: a Bureau of State Artistics data show that visitors from

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Speaker 2: China are just thirty seven percent of pre COVID levels.

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Speaker 2: It's the worst number in a much more upbeat look

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Speaker 2: at tourism. In terms of travelers to Australia, international travel

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Speaker 2: is back to ninety one percent of the pre COVID levels.

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Speaker 2: In fact, in the case of South Korea, arrivals are

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Speaker 2: actually above pre twenty nineteen levels. Australia's main source of

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Speaker 2: visitors come from New Zealand, the USA and the UK.

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Speaker 1: Shaan, a man who leaked classified military documents that reveal

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Speaker 1: the allegations Australian soldiers committed war crimes in Afghanistan, will

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Speaker 1: spend at least two years and three months behind bars.

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Speaker 2: David McBride, who's aged sixty, pleaded guilty to stealing classified

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Speaker 2: material and leaking it to journalists. According to AAP, Justice

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Speaker 2: David moss Up sentenced McBride to an aggregate five years

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Speaker 2: and eight months in prison for three charges in the

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Speaker 2: Act Supreme Court, with a non prole period of twenty

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Speaker 2: seven months. The former military lawyer's actions were a gross

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Speaker 2: breach of trust of his position as a lawyer, Justice

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Speaker 2: Mossip told the court, and there was a significant need

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Speaker 2: to deter similar actions in the future.

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Speaker 1: An update from a story yesterday where the Federal Court

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Speaker 1: sided with Elon Musk and X over an E Safety

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Speaker 1: directive to takedown video showing the stabbing of a Sydney

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Speaker 1: bishop last month. The court provided its reasons yesterday and

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Speaker 1: said the directive wasn't a reasonable demand from a regulator.

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Speaker 2: Ouch Federal Court Justice Jeffrey Kennett ruled in a preliminary

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Speaker 2: decision that there were powerful issues with E Safety's attempt

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Speaker 2: to regulate the global Internet. According to the Financial Review,

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Speaker 2: Kennett found it would likely be ignored or disparaged in

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Speaker 2: other countries even if Australian courts tried to enforce it.

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Speaker 2: A global ban was not there for a reasonable step

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Speaker 2: as required by Australian law designed to tackle terrorists content.

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Speaker 2: The judge concluded basically he sided with Elon Musk, not

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Speaker 2: with the government. E Safety's lawyers had argued a global

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Speaker 2: ban was necessary on the sixty five specified videos because

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Speaker 2: Australians could sirc event exit's initial block that was limited

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Speaker 2: to this country using simple technical tools. In the end

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Speaker 2: just came down and gave the government a bit of

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Speaker 2: a whack.

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Speaker 1: Sean. There was more bad news yesterday for bondser employees,

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Speaker 1: who were told that they'd stood down for at least

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Speaker 1: another fortnight. As administrators seek formal expressions of interest in

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Speaker 1: the airline.

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Speaker 2: Wonder if anyone's actually interested.

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Speaker 1: I can't imagine. I mean, what was it, fifteen months?

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Speaker 1: Sixteen months in the air It's not exactly a kind

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Speaker 1: of a sterling record to go out there and sell

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Speaker 1: to someone else.

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Speaker 2: No, I mean there are media reports around the place

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Speaker 2: this morning that Vietnamese airline was interested, but isn't anymore.

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Speaker 2: Administrator Hall Chadwick said, yesterday's about twenty interested parties. Like

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Speaker 2: what are they interested in?

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Speaker 1: I mean half the jets aren't even here anymore, are they?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Bruce.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't a Bruce the seven three seven was on

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Speaker 1: his way. He was off back to Honolulu and then

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Speaker 1: kind of from their Canada somewhere else, an undisclosed location.

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Speaker 2: Yes, that's exactly. In fact, Michael, this is an excellent

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Speaker 2: segway because that's the story I write about in today's newsletter.

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Speaker 2: What would Bruce become Justin Wayne Bieber Gretzky, You know

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Speaker 2: how it is?

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Speaker 1: Oh, they've all got to have Canadian names. I love that.

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Speaker 2: Selene Dion, Selene Martin short, Martin, Michael j something like that.

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Speaker 1: That's a great idea. Oh, fantastic speculation and great way

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Speaker 1: to promote the Fear and Greed newsletter, which of course

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Speaker 1: comes out every Wednesday morning mid morning. Head along to

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Speaker 1: Fearangreed dot com dot au and pop your email address in.

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Speaker 1: And I'm sure that there is a lot of serious

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Speaker 1: content in there and not just speculation about what your

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Speaker 1: name a Canadian jet.

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Speaker 2: Well, there is a little bit of speak, a little

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Speaker 2: bit of speculation, mostly serious, that's true. Anyway, The point

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Speaker 2: of that is at all. Chadwick said they are about

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Speaker 2: twenty interested parties. The fortnight extension affects staff and passengers,

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Speaker 2: meaning more customers will become what's known as contingent creditors

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Speaker 2: because they ain't going to get the refund on the

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Speaker 2: tickets they bought, so they become a creditor.

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Speaker 1: San turning to international news now and game Stop shares surge,

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Speaker 1: so speculation swirled around a return to social media by

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Speaker 1: Keith Gill, who was the one who drove the memestock

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Speaker 1: mania of twenty twenty one under the moniker Roaring Kitty.

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Speaker 2: The Roaring Kitty post on x shows a man leaning

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Speaker 2: forward with what looked like a gaming controller, which some

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Speaker 2: traders interpreted to mean that Gil is coming back into action.

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Speaker 2: According to a report on Bloomberg, Gil, whose account has

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Speaker 2: long been dormant, shot to fame in twenty twenty one

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Speaker 2: by rallying day traders on Reddit in an effort to

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Speaker 2: squeeze game Stop short sellers. Back then, he started posting

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Speaker 2: that game Stop was undervalued, and in a month his

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Speaker 2: share price went from seventeen dollars twenty five US to

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Speaker 2: more than five hundred dollars. It's quite incredible. Roaring Kitty

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Speaker 2: then appeared before Congress. He admitted that he wasn't a cat.

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Speaker 2: That was one of those great lines he then disappeared

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Speaker 2: from sight until yesterday. His post attracted more than twelve

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Speaker 2: million views. More than one hundred and seventy five million

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Speaker 2: game Stop shares then changed hands almost thirty times. The

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Speaker 2: one year average training was halted for volatility nine times.

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Speaker 2: Within the opening ninety minutes of training, chares rose by

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Speaker 2: as much as one hundred and nineteen percent. Eventually they

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Speaker 2: closed up seventy four percent.

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Speaker 1: Ridiculous it is, and it's actually probably worth us taking

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Speaker 1: a closer look. On tomorrow's show, We've got a fascinating

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Speaker 1: interview basically explaining how it all works, because it's it

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Speaker 1: is one of those bizarre kind of anomalies that popped

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Speaker 1: up a couple of years ago, and here we are

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Speaker 1: talking about it again.

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Speaker 2: I know, in fact, it's in the newsletter as well. Michael.

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Speaker 1: My take on that fantastic. I can't wait. That sounded disingenuous,

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Speaker 1: but I really cannot wait. Sean, it didn't until you

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Speaker 1: said it did. Oh, I'm sorry, shouldn't have pointed that out.

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Speaker 2: Then.

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Speaker 1: Germany is looking at tax breaks and welfare to encourage

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Speaker 1: people to work more, joining the UK and the Netherlands

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Speaker 1: on a quest to tackle the region's economic malayis by

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Speaker 1: reversing a big drop in average working hours. This is fascinating.

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Speaker 2: Yes one for our colleague Adam Lang, who's all for

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Speaker 2: the four day week. This one's especially for you, Adam.

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Speaker 2: German Chancellor Olive Schultz's ruling coalition is preparing a growth

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Speaker 2: plan that aims to make working longer hours more rewarding.

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Speaker 2: According to the Financial Times, oceans under discussion include tax

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Speaker 2: cuts on overtime and a benefits overhaul. The drop in

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Speaker 2: working hours across Europe since the pandemic has exacerbated the

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Speaker 2: region's economic underperformance and poor competitiveness at a time when

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Speaker 2: aging populations are shrinking workforces. Germany has the shortest average

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Speaker 2: working hours of any advanced economy according to the OECD,

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Speaker 2: reflecting a relatively high share of German women who are

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Speaker 2: employed part time and a growing preference for more leisure time.

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Speaker 2: Nothing wrong with that, but the idea that you actually

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Speaker 2: incentivize people to work more than me it meets people

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Speaker 2: have a choice in Not a bad idea.

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Speaker 1: All right, It has been a big twenty four hours

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Speaker 1: in news Sean. Up next is the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: Daily Interview your guest. As we mentioned at the top

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Speaker 1: of the show is our resident economist, Stephen Coucoulis.

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Speaker 2: And as we mentioned at the top of the show,

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Speaker 2: and I'm sure it's the same at the end of

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Speaker 2: the show, as excited as ever, what in fact, as

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Speaker 2: excited as Stephen can get, and that is saying something.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's pretty much off the charts excitement. It is

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Speaker 1: up next in the Fear and Greed playlist on your

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Speaker 1: podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au where

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Speaker 1: you can sign up for that newsletter, which is very

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Speaker 1: very exciting. And I say that with my hand on

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Speaker 1: my heart. Sean, good good, Thanks Sean. Thanks Michael. It's Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: the fifteenth of May twenty twenty four. Make sure you're

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Speaker 1: following the podcast. Join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex

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Speaker 1: TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. Have a great day.