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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fearing Greek Q and A, where we ask

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Speaker 1: and answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics and more.

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Speaker 1: I'm Sean Aylmer. Interest rate cuts are probably behind us,

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Speaker 1: and next year we might see rates rising once more.

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Speaker 1: Today I wanted to look at what that means for investors,

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Speaker 1: how they can make the most of a rising interest

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Speaker 1: rate environment. Remember this is general information only, and you

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Speaker 1: should always seek advice before making investment decisions. Tim Carleton

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Speaker 1: is the chief investment officer at os Cap Asset Management. Tim,

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Speaker 1: Welcome to if you're in Greed Q and A.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Shawn, It's great to be so.

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Speaker 1: How to investors think about a turning point, particularly in

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Speaker 1: interest rates? And it seems to be where we are now.

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Speaker 3: Yes, it's been a very interesting last couple of months.

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Speaker 3: It wasn't long ago that I think the whole market

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Speaker 3: was expecting a decline in interest rates, and now, if anything,

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Speaker 3: it looks more likely that we're going to get a

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Speaker 3: lift interest rates into twenty twenty six rather than continued declients.

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Speaker 3: I guess the way I think about that is really

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Speaker 3: in the broader context.

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Speaker 2: Of the way that we invest.

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Speaker 3: So there's an old adage in markets that In the

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Speaker 3: short run, markets a voting machine. In the long run,

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Speaker 3: they're a weighing machine. Put a different way. In the

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Speaker 3: short run, it's flow of funds that dictate the direction

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Speaker 3: of share prices. But in the long run, what really

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Speaker 3: matters is earnings. And as Howard Marks often quotes, markets

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Speaker 3: have this incredible ability to switch between extreme optimism and

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Speaker 3: extreme pessimism.

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Speaker 2: Things go from being hopeless to being flawless and back

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Speaker 2: again in pretty short order.

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Speaker 3: And so we think about tilting our portfolios when we

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Speaker 3: can take advantage of these extremes in sentiment. And so

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Speaker 3: when everyone was rushing towards the more cyclical names, a

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Speaker 3: lot of investors were doing that in the last six

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Speaker 3: to twelve months, assuming that intrat straits would decline meaningfully,

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Speaker 3: and as a result, we saw multiples in the consumer

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Speaker 3: space and in the financial space that were reasonably stretched

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Speaker 3: against history. And so at those times we're often thinking

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Speaker 3: to ourselves, we know that share prices have moved a

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Speaker 3: decent way away from fair value for some of those names,

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Speaker 3: and we want to rotate into the part of the market,

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Speaker 3: or the parts of the market where there's a disconnect

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Speaker 3: in the other direction, where investors are particularly negative and

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Speaker 3: sentiment particularly bearish in relation to certain sectors that aren't

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Speaker 3: flavor of the day. So in the last six months,

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Speaker 3: we have been reducing our exposure a little bit to

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Speaker 3: consumer aims and to some of the financial stocks that

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Speaker 3: we have been invested in, and we've been increasing our

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Speaker 3: exposure to companies that are in more defensive parts of

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Speaker 3: the market, and that certainly hasn't been flavor of the day.

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Speaker 3: So the two areas that really stick out for US.

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Speaker 3: Healthcare has had a pretty poor last couple of years,

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Speaker 3: and some of the valuations there are looking extremely attractive.

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Speaker 3: And then real estate has also been reasonably subdued, and

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Speaker 3: we think that there's some real value on offer in

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Speaker 3: parts of the real estate complex.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so let's start with health care then, why? Because

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Speaker 1: many I mean starting with CSL, but many of the

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Speaker 1: healthcare stocks have really had a tough time of it

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Speaker 1: over the past twelve months or so. Why, I mean,

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Speaker 1: what's the catalyst for the turner? Is a pure valuation

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Speaker 1: story from your point of view, which within the sector

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Speaker 1: do you particularly like?

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Speaker 2: I'm interested?

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Speaker 3: Yes, I mean, as I said, our fundamental belief is

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Speaker 3: that the longer that you'll hold a stock or a

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Speaker 3: portfolio or a broader market. The more likely your total

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Speaker 3: return is going to be a function of two things,

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Speaker 3: and those two things are dividend yield and earning's growth.

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Speaker 3: So what you really want to hold for the duration

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Speaker 3: of a cycle businesses that you think will deliver an

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Speaker 3: attractive combination of dividend plus earnings growth. So we tend

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Speaker 3: to steer clear of companies that are facing a huge

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Speaker 3: number of earning's headwinds, particularly where we don't have any

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Speaker 3: visibility around the subsidies of those issues. So at the moment,

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Speaker 3: we're keeping a watching brief on CSL, but it's not

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Speaker 3: a position that we have been adding to or adding

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Speaker 3: to the portfolio.

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Speaker 2: The two companies that we do really like in this space.

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Speaker 3: One is Sonic Healthcare, so they are a global leader

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Speaker 3: in pathology. They also have a reasonably large domestic radiology business.

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Speaker 3: They had extraordinary.

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Speaker 2: Profits through COVID.

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Speaker 3: They were called on by the federal government to do

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Speaker 3: a lot of the COVID testing. They made a lot

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Speaker 3: of money through that period. They also had to lift

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Speaker 3: their cost base substantially. They hired a couple of thousand

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Speaker 3: extra staff to handle all of those volumes and healthcare

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Speaker 3: companies aren't normally in the habit of cutting star and

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Speaker 3: they've been very clear with the market that they certainly

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Speaker 3: didn't intend to cut the staff that they put on

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Speaker 3: that got Australia through its time of need. So as

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Speaker 3: a result, as the COVID testing volumes have come off,

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Speaker 3: they've been carrying a somewhat bloated cost base. They used

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Speaker 3: the COVID profits to go and buy a couple of

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Speaker 3: businesses of pretty decent scale in Europe, but they really

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Speaker 3: haven't contributed from an earning's perspective to any great extent

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Speaker 3: so far. So as we look forward, we think that

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Speaker 3: they've now right sized the cost bakes. It's taken them

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Speaker 3: a few years, and we should start to really see

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Speaker 3: the leverage coming through the business, not only as volumes

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Speaker 3: pick up, but also as we get some of the

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Speaker 3: synergies and uplift in gross margins from a few of

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Speaker 3: the acquisitions that they have made over the last three

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Speaker 3: or four years. And so this year they're pointing to

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Speaker 3: double digit earning's growth. We expect that you'll actually see

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Speaker 3: double digit earnings growth for the next couple of years,

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Speaker 3: and yet they are trading it close to the lowest

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Speaker 3: multiple of near term earnings that they have traded in

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Speaker 3: for more than a decade.

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Speaker 2: So we think that's very interesting.

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Speaker 3: The second healthcare name that we really like also exhibits

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Speaker 3: very strong earnings growth over time, and that's res Men

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Speaker 3: and so res Met are the global leader in the treatment.

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Speaker 2: Of obstructive sleep up now.

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Speaker 3: They've had a very long track record of growing their

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Speaker 3: earnings at double digit rates year in year out. At

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Speaker 3: the moment, there have been some concerns in the last

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Speaker 3: couple of years about the effects of GLP ones or

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Speaker 3: weight loss drugs. People have become concerned that it might

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Speaker 3: shrink the cohort of available customers. But what's missed by

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Speaker 3: investors that are worried about that issue is the fact

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Speaker 3: that this is a really underdiagnosed condition. A little over

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Speaker 3: two percent of people globally are aware that they have

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Speaker 3: sleep up there, which is the condition where you effectively

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Speaker 3: suffocate multiple times through the night as your airways close.

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Speaker 3: And Resmet have the dominant device that that solves for

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Speaker 3: that issue. It's called a CPAP machine. They sell not

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Speaker 3: just a machine that all of the masks and everything

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Speaker 3: else that go with it.

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Speaker 2: And it fixes the problem immediately.

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Speaker 3: And you know, in many instances, in many geographies has

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Speaker 3: pretty good reimbursement from local providers.

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Speaker 2: So we think that issue is overblown.

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Speaker 3: Resumes have actually been conducting a study for four years

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Speaker 3: now into the GLP one cohort. What they've actually found

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Speaker 3: is that GLP one uses more likely to initiate a

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Speaker 3: res MED CPAP treatment plan and more likely to continue

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Speaker 3: with it both one and three is down the track

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Speaker 3: than non GLP one takers. So we actually think GLP

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Speaker 3: ones might be a bit of a tailwind for res

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Speaker 3: Med rather than the headwind. But the fact that everyone's

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Speaker 3: jumped to the conclusion that it's a headwind has meant

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Speaker 3: that again it's trading it close to the lowest multiples

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Speaker 3: that we have seen for that stock in the last decade.

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Speaker 3: So too, pretty interesting stories that certainly aren't flavor of

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Speaker 3: the day that look pretty interesting to us over the cycle.

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Speaker 1: Give me one property company then, because we're sort of

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Speaker 1: running out of time, But which is your favorite property

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Speaker 1: company then? And again, I mean when you're seeing interest

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Speaker 1: rates rise, that's not the time that investors tend to

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Speaker 1: rush to property companies because of course they hold lots

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Speaker 1: of debts, so higher interest rates means of holding more debt,

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Speaker 1: give me one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, the story is actually one really of retail

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Speaker 3: real estate. That's our preferred exposure. We own two names

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Speaker 3: in that space, but the story is effectively the same.

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Speaker 3: So home Co Daily Needs Reat we really like and

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Speaker 3: Charter Hall Retail Read. They both own monopoly assets. I mean,

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Speaker 3: the one thing that you know people need to remind

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Speaker 3: themselves of is retail assets monopoly assets. Once you have

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Speaker 3: the built environment, it's very difficult to replicate those assets.

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Speaker 3: And so both of those companies, they're trading.

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Speaker 2: With a north of six percent yield.

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Speaker 3: We expect that they'll grow earnings at at least five

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Speaker 3: percent per annum through the cycle. So that's a pretty

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Speaker 3: low risk eleven percent plus type return, and that's before

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Speaker 3: they undertake any development or improve their portfolio through asset

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Speaker 3: recycling at all. They both have gearing towards the bottom

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Speaker 3: end of their range, so we're not worried about the

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Speaker 3: debt concerns that you might see at different points in

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Speaker 3: the cycle. And of course if it's inflation driving interest

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Speaker 3: rates higher, well they have the protection that you should

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Speaker 3: see that inflation coming through their revenue line. So both

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Speaker 3: companies are trading well below their tangible asset backing, and

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Speaker 3: we're seeing very very strong institutional demand for these assets.

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Speaker 3: So we think, if anything, the net tangible asset backing

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Speaker 3: is a little bit light on. So here you're getting

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Speaker 3: an opportunity to buy both of these businesses below their

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Speaker 3: externally validated valuation of the assets that they hold with

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Speaker 3: a pretty attractive title return combination.

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Speaker 2: So we're excited about retail real estate.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we're out of time, but there is one I

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Speaker 1: just want to ask you about. I can never get

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Speaker 1: my head around recent I mean, it's kind of not

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Speaker 1: widely held himply because the family, the Wilson family have

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Speaker 1: so much of it, but wow, they've been hammed. In fact,

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Speaker 1: I think it's the worst performing stock of the ASEX

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Speaker 1: two hundred this year. Yet, Tim Carlton, you think it

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Speaker 1: might be worth having a look at.

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Speaker 3: I think anytime you see a significant shareholder, let alone

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Speaker 3: one that runs the business back the truck up, you want.

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Speaker 2: To have a very very close look.

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Speaker 3: So when the family go and announce a four hundred

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Speaker 3: million dollar buyback that they've now instigated through both an

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Speaker 3: off market and a subsequent on market buyback, that is

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Speaker 3: effectively the family spending two hundred and fifty to three

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Speaker 3: hundred million dollars of their own money buying stock at

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Speaker 3: a premium in the market. Well, listen, they've been hit

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Speaker 3: with a trifector of issues. They have seen a housing

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Speaker 3: slow down both in the US and Australia. In the US,

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Speaker 3: virtually every mortgage holder was able to fix their mortgage

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Speaker 3: for thirty years in the mid threes when interest rates

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Speaker 3: went to zero. Well, mortgage rates are currently in the

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Speaker 3: sixes and so no one's incentivized to sell their home

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Speaker 3: and move into another home because they'll reset their mortgage.

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Speaker 2: Rate three percentage points higher.

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Speaker 3: So housing turnover is really low and that's obviously detrimental

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Speaker 3: to a player like Reece, but we're starting to cycle

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Speaker 3: that issue. We've also seen a pick up in competition,

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Speaker 3: both in Australia with Tradelink and in the US, particularly

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Speaker 3: on the water works side, and so that's had a

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Speaker 3: depressing impact on earnings.

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Speaker 2: But again we're starting to get through that issue.

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Speaker 3: And obviously they've also faced tariffs and they've had to

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Speaker 3: try and pass on the increased costs to their customers.

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Speaker 3: So we've really had a trifecta of issues, but we're

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Speaker 3: now starting to get through that. And what you don't

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Speaker 3: want to lose sight of is this enormous opportunity to

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Speaker 3: build in the US what they already have in Australia,

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Speaker 3: which is a very dominant player in that plumbing market.

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Speaker 3: It's a market that's hugely fragmented and we think that

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Speaker 3: there's still a multi decade opportunity. And the fact that

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Speaker 3: the company has announced two reasonably aggressive buybacks implemented obviously

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Speaker 3: the first one of those, and the family have said

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Speaker 3: we've got no interest in participating in terms of selling

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Speaker 3: our stock into that buyback. We think that's a pretty

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Speaker 3: good reflection of the fact that you're very close to

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Speaker 3: that turn in the earning cycle for this business. And

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Speaker 3: if they see good value at thirteen dollars or higher,

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Speaker 3: which is where the buyback was priced, then you know,

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Speaker 3: I think if you're getting an opportunity south of that

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Speaker 3: to buy into the business, have an appropriate time horizon,

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Speaker 3: but we suspect it's going to be pretty good buying.

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Speaker 1: Tim, thanks for talking to Fearing Greed. Thanks Sean Tim Carton,

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Speaker 1: chief investment Officer at os Cap Asset Management, and a

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Speaker 1: reminder to please seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

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Speaker 1: I'm Chanelle and this is fear and greed Q and

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Speaker 1: a