1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,680 Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gadigel 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: people of the Uran Nation. 3 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:11,360 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to the Real Story with Joe Hildebrand. 4 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:16,160 Speaker 2: And it is World War three again again. It's all happening. 5 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 2: Donald Trump is trying to stop Israel and Iran from 6 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 2: destroying each other. Iran is trying to blow Israel off 7 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 2: the face of the planet. Israel kind of got in 8 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,880 Speaker 2: first and half blue Iran off the face of the planet. Meanwhile, 9 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 2: Russia and Ukraine are still fighting it out. China is 10 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 2: rising as a global superpower and just licking its lips. Hm, 11 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:37,840 Speaker 2: maybe we invade Twine. We don't even know if we've 12 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 2: got a deal with the US over August. We don't 13 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 2: even know if we've got the US as our main 14 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:48,519 Speaker 2: strategic ally anymore, although the UK and Kistarma somehow do 15 00:00:48,600 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 2: All this and more coming right up. Of course, all 16 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 2: news is local, and the real story is that Albow 17 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 2: missed out on his meeting with Donald Trump. He flew 18 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 2: all the way to Canada to the G seven meeting 19 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:13,320 Speaker 2: for a meeting with Donald Trump, and then the night 20 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:17,480 Speaker 2: before it's meant to happen, Old trumpy, old Orange guy, 21 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:21,679 Speaker 2: Bad China backs out disappears as actually, you know what, 22 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 2: I am going to go and deal with this World 23 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 2: War III thing in the Middle East. So a lot 24 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 2: of people are trying to punish Albo for that. The 25 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 2: poor guy suffered enough frankly, as if it's his fault. 26 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:36,320 Speaker 2: Do you think is Albo saying, hey, guys, you know, 27 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 2: would your mind just escalating the war a bit so 28 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:41,320 Speaker 2: that you know, Trump can pull out of his meeting 29 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:43,319 Speaker 2: with me, Like, how are people blaming Albow for this? 30 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 2: I just don't understand. It's obviously just a bit of 31 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 2: bad luck. The fact that he had secured the meeting 32 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 2: is a win, very strong. The fact that Australia is 33 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 2: not even a member of the G seven but is 34 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 2: still going there and getting an audience with the US president. 35 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 2: We nearly getting an audience with the US president. Australia 36 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 2: actually went as a guest of Canada, because of course 37 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 2: we all know that Canada is just Australia with snow, 38 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 2: and Albo crossed literally about as far as you can 39 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 2: pretty much go across the planet and ended up there 40 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 2: and ended up just going there to the other side 41 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 2: of the world for pretty much just no reason whatsoever. 42 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 2: You know, who is in the G seven Canada, So 43 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,359 Speaker 2: why are they in it and why not? And also Italy? 44 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 2: What's Italy doing? I mean, love the joint big fan 45 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 2: of the Roman Empire. Let's face it, it's not what it was, 46 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 2: you know. So I think the fact that Albo got there, 47 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:48,639 Speaker 2: got the meeting in the first place, is a win, 48 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:53,359 Speaker 2: even if it was Clayton's meeting that actually never took place. 49 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 2: We're going to be speaking later on to an expert 50 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 2: about what all this means, incidentally, and whether or not 51 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 2: we truly are on the brink of World War three, 52 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 2: So stay tuned for that. But anyway, Donald Trump drops 53 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 2: everything he'd been told before he was even going to 54 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 2: the G seven. What are you doing going to the 55 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:16,119 Speaker 2: G seven when there's this potential World War III thing 56 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:19,519 Speaker 2: happening with Iran? You know, maybe maybe not on the 57 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:23,959 Speaker 2: verge of developing nuclear weapons, maybe it already has them, 58 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,079 Speaker 2: probably not, but you know, do you really want to 59 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:31,959 Speaker 2: find that out when they launch it? And Donald Trump said, no, no, no, 60 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:33,919 Speaker 2: I'm still going to the G seven. Then, of course, 61 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 2: be Donald Trump. He gets to the G seven is 62 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 2: actually you know what, Yeah, I better go and do 63 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 2: this thing. And someone said, oh, Donald, you're going to 64 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 2: get a ceasefire, He goes, oh, no, I'm going to 65 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 2: get much more than a ceasefire, much more than they've 66 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 2: going to stop the whole thing, going to make Iran surrender. Now, 67 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 2: I'm not convinced that Iran is going to agree to 68 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 2: a piece that is negotiated by a country that it 69 00:03:54,640 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 2: literally calls Satan and whose citizens begin public meetings by 70 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 2: chanting death to America. I'm not sure they're then going 71 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 2: to turn around and say, Okay, you know what, don't 72 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 2: you decide? Yeah, we'll do whatever you say, Satan. I 73 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 2: think could be a bit more like Jesus in the desert. 74 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 2: Whether they'd get behind me Satan. I don't want to 75 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 2: know what happens after that. So they're still going hard 76 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 2: at each other. Israel needs the US to give it 77 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:28,479 Speaker 2: or use some of its big bunker busting bombs. So 78 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 2: the US has got these missiles that can smash deep 79 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:39,039 Speaker 2: into the ground, deep underground where the Uranians have their 80 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 2: uranium or their potential nuclear missiles, their nuclear programs, their 81 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,359 Speaker 2: little underground labs. It's all very James Bond. That is 82 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 2: why Israel wants to bring the US into the war. 83 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 2: Or at least get a hold of the missiles. Presumably 84 00:04:54,720 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 2: the missiles are subject to some pretty heavy intellectual property right, 85 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 2: so the Americans would probably have to be the ones 86 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,799 Speaker 2: that actually use those missiles, and that would mean America 87 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 2: actually firing on Iran. What happens then, well, possibly nothing, 88 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 2: Possibly that's all she wrote. Because nobody likes Iran. Iran sucks, 89 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,720 Speaker 2: or rather, the Runan regime sucks. So Iran used to 90 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 2: be in an alliance with Syria and Russia. Now, I 91 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 2: don't know if you guys have been following the news 92 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 2: much recently, but Syria ain't no more that Asad regime 93 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 2: has fallen, Syria has been overtaken by all these rebels, 94 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 2: and it's fair to say that it's alliance with Arad 95 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 2: is no longer a going concern, should we say it's 96 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 2: yet to be finalized? Still got Russia, but again, I'm 97 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 2: not sure if you've been following the news recently. Bit 98 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:54,600 Speaker 2: Russia's kind of got a bit on its plate. It's 99 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 2: kind of got another war that it's embroiled in, and 100 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 2: it's not doing as well as it will like, and 101 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 2: it certainly doesn't have too many spare soldiers or spare 102 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 2: equipment to be handbailling. Iran's why and of course that 103 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 2: would bring it into conflict with the US, which it 104 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 2: probably doesn't want. But what about all the other Golf states, 105 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:17,839 Speaker 2: all the other Arab states. Surely they wouldn't want America 106 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 2: wading in again and getting embroiled in another war like 107 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 2: they did in Iraq Afghanistan. Well, see, they don't like 108 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:29,160 Speaker 2: Iran either. Nobody likes Iran. You know who else doesn't 109 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 2: like See the Iranas Shiite Muslim and the rest of 110 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 2: the Gulf states are Sunni Muslim, And you know, they 111 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:40,279 Speaker 2: could get pretty touchy about that. That's kind of when 112 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:44,840 Speaker 2: people start to die, get beheaded, you know, burned alive, 113 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:48,479 Speaker 2: you know, stoned to death, you know, mass public hangings, 114 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 2: that sort of stuff, that's what you know, their theological 115 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 2: arguments can quickly take a turn for the worse. So 116 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 2: they don't like Iran either. And the other group of 117 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 2: people who don't like Iran is Iranians. The Iranians hate 118 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 2: the regime. That's why they had a revolution there during 119 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 2: the Arab Spring in two thousand and nine. And of 120 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:15,239 Speaker 2: course it was only the incredibly brutal repression of those 121 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 2: people who protested that eventually forced them into submission, forced 122 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 2: a lot of them to flee the country. I actually 123 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 2: know someone who fled Iran after the two thousand and 124 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 2: nine attempted revolution, if you want. And now that Israel 125 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 2: has basically wiped out almost all of Iran's military leadership, 126 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 2: maybe another revolutions on the cards. So no one is 127 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 2: there for Iran. Russia is it's only ally Russia's busy 128 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 2: invading Ukraine. The Gulf states around it or hate it 129 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 2: because it's the wrong religion. And they're not just the 130 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 2: wrong religion, but they are the most active, repressive, proselytizers 131 00:07:56,800 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 2: and enforces of the wrong religion, the Iranian's own people. 132 00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 2: There's no support for the regime among the common people 133 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 2: in Iran. They've risen up before, maybe they will again. 134 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:10,920 Speaker 2: And Israel, which is that little country that keeps bombing 135 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 2: the Jesus out of Iran, it don't like it much either. 136 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 2: So I actually reckon that this little World War three 137 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 2: could be over quite quickly, with Iran basically running away 138 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 2: with its tail between its legs. This could actually be 139 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:32,080 Speaker 2: you know, fairly, if you know, if America gets involved, especially, 140 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:35,640 Speaker 2: it could be a fairly kind of, you know, all 141 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 2: over red rover type of affair. But that's the good news. 142 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 2: The bad news is that World War three is still coming, 143 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 2: possibly via China, possibly via Russia. And how do I 144 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 2: know this well, because we are now coming to what 145 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 2: seems to be the end of what is probably the 146 00:08:55,760 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 2: longest stretch of global peace time in all of hu 147 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 2: human history. They call the period since World War Two 148 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 2: the long Peace. And that's because World War II was 149 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 2: so utterly horrific, the worst conflict, the worst slaughter, the 150 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:14,480 Speaker 2: worst genocide the world has ever ever seen, that we 151 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 2: put up all these we put up all these organizations 152 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 2: to stop it from happening again. We established the United Nations, 153 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 2: we established NATO, We established all these rules, all these blocks, 154 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 2: all these treaties in order to stop a massive global 155 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 2: conflict from ever happening again. Yes, there have been little 156 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 2: flow ups. There was Vietnam, there was a couple of 157 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:39,560 Speaker 2: golf wars, a bit of Somalia, a bit of Eastern Europe. 158 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 2: But by and large, there has not been a major 159 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 2: war since then, especially not involving superpowers fighting each other. 160 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 2: And that is the exception, that is this exception that 161 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 2: proved the rules all these people generations of people. Now 162 00:09:57,640 --> 00:09:59,319 Speaker 2: we had a generation of people who said, actually, no, 163 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 2: I'm not going to go on in Vietnam. That would 164 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:05,320 Speaker 2: have been unthinkable the generation earlier. So all these people, 165 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 2: people like me who have lived never having known war, 166 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:14,079 Speaker 2: never having to worry about war. This just reminds us 167 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 2: that war is actually the norm for humankind, and that 168 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:24,520 Speaker 2: is the terrifying thing about us, That war, not peace 169 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:29,439 Speaker 2: is the default position of people of the human race, 170 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:31,640 Speaker 2: and that is what we are seeing right now, and 171 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 2: that is why we always have to be ultra careful 172 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 2: to try and nip it in the bud. As I 173 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:45,320 Speaker 2: mentioned earlier in the show, we are on the brink 174 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 2: of World War three. So what does this mean for 175 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 2: the average Australian. Well, we're going to find out what 176 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 2: Australia thinks of this whole new foreign policy global landscape 177 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 2: that we've found ourselves in. From the wildness and the 178 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 2: unpredictability of Donald Trump is the Orcus agreement our security 179 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:06,959 Speaker 2: packed with the United States and the United Kingdom in peril. 180 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 2: What's going to happen with Iran and Israel. Donald Trump 181 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 2: has just had to pull out of the G seven 182 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 2: to go and fix that mess or is he going 183 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:17,079 Speaker 2: to just make a new one. Well, to answer all 184 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:21,000 Speaker 2: these questions and more, I'm joined by a very eminent guest. 185 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 2: His name is Ryan Neelm. He is the director of 186 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 2: the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program at the Loewe Institute, 187 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 2: which is the premiere international relations think tank in Australia. 188 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:36,800 Speaker 2: He's a former diplomat himself of fourteen years experience. He 189 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:40,839 Speaker 2: just came back as Deputy Consul General of Hong Kong 190 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:44,360 Speaker 2: and he joins me right here, Ryan, Welcome to the 191 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 2: real story. 192 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: How are you so good to be with you? Jose 193 00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 1: Thanks for having me. 194 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 2: It's so good to have you. Ryan also set up 195 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 2: my sister with her husband, so I feel like he's 196 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:58,120 Speaker 2: a man of impeccable taste now impeccable judgment. But look, 197 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 2: thanks so much. You are the author of the annual 198 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 2: Lowi Pole, or the guy pulling it all together. And 199 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 2: this is this huge deep dive into what Australia thinks 200 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 2: about kind of everything, but especially what's happening in the 201 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 2: world around us. What is going on? Should we be 202 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 2: in fear of our lives and diving into the backyard bunker. 203 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 2: The thing that really stood out to me is that 204 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:26,160 Speaker 2: the faith in America and faith in the US under 205 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:31,320 Speaker 2: Donald Trump doing the right thing globally has completely collapsed, 206 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 2: hasn't it. 207 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 1: That's right, it's one of the more significant changes we've seen. 208 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:38,839 Speaker 1: We've been doing this pole for twenty one years now, Joe, 209 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 1: and over that time we've seen a few big shifts. 210 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: One of them is attitudes towards China, which I'm sure 211 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 1: we'll talk about in a minute, But this year, trust 212 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 1: in the United States to do the right thing in 213 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 1: the world has dropped by twenty points since last year. Obviously, 214 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:57,199 Speaker 1: the change with Donald Trump in the White House has 215 00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:01,200 Speaker 1: had a big effect on how Australians view their key 216 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:05,440 Speaker 1: security ally, and when we ask about the specific policies 217 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 1: that Donald Trump has brought in in this first one 218 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 1: hundred days in office. This pole was taken in March. 219 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 1: Just for context, we've seen high levels of disapproval across 220 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 1: the board, from his use of tariffs, his wish to 221 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:19,719 Speaker 1: acquire Greenland. 222 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 2: I forgot about that, Like he's done so much crazy 223 00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 2: stuff since then that you forget that. 224 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:29,600 Speaker 1: Well, he hasn't given that up either, And also I 225 00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 1: mean his attempts to negotiate with Vladimir Putin on the 226 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 1: future of Ukraine his cuts the USA. Australians across the 227 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:40,079 Speaker 1: board have rejected these policies, and I think it speaks 228 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,320 Speaker 1: to the instincts of Australians that we've seen over twenty 229 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 1: one years in this poll, where we're internationalists. We want 230 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 1: to see a rules based system constraining great powers and 231 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:55,840 Speaker 1: allowing for open trade, and we buy and large want 232 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,320 Speaker 1: to want an ally that is present in the region 233 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 1: and looking out for the stability of the region. 234 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 2: And this is the other interesting thing about it, because 235 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 2: it's not that Australians are turning away from America and 236 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:08,680 Speaker 2: saying all right, well we've got to, you know, look 237 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 2: to China now to protect us or some other big 238 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:16,280 Speaker 2: regional power astrants. Overwhelmingly want America to be our number 239 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 2: one allie. That's something like eighty percent. That's four out 240 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 2: of five Australians consistently say America should be our best friend. 241 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 2: And yet I think the figure was something like twenty seven. 242 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 2: Only twenty seven percent of people actually think that America 243 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 2: will do the right thing in the world. 244 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, thirty six percent of Australian say they trust the 245 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 1: US to do the right thing in the world. But 246 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,840 Speaker 1: you're right, eighty percent continue to see the Alliance as 247 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 1: important to our security. So this is one of the 248 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 1: fascinating things that the fact that trust has really fallen 249 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: off a cliff, but the sense that the Alliance is 250 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 1: important to our security has not really changed substantially since 251 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 1: last year. So it I mean, I think it actually 252 00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 1: speaks to something that people don't have to give Australians 253 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,760 Speaker 1: credit for, is that people can hold two things in 254 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 1: their minds at the same time. They can dislike the 255 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 1: direction that Donald Trump is taking our major security partner, 256 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 1: but they can also be pragmatic and think that, well, 257 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 1: we need the US in certain respects as well. And 258 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 1: one of those reasons, I think is you see continued 259 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 1: distrust of our major trading part China, especially after the 260 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: last few years where we've had a serious diplomatic rupture 261 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 1: with China. That things are on a more even keel now, 262 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: not necessarily not necessarily stable, but stabilizing, as the government says. 263 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 1: But I think that's one of the contributing factors why 264 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 1: people still have this sense that you know, of insecurity 265 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 1: and that we actually need an ally like the United States. 266 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:45,480 Speaker 2: And it's such a shame, isn't Because there was this sense, 267 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 2: there was this almost an assumption, you know, you could 268 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 2: talk about your know, Francis Fukuiama in the end of 269 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 2: History or whatever, but there was an assumption that China 270 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 2: would inevitably open up, it would liberalize economically, and then 271 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 2: it would inevitably liberalize politically and just gradually open up. 272 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 2: And the former kind of happened. But then Jijingping comes 273 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 2: to power, and suddenly it's going in the other direction. 274 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 2: It's becoming more nationalist, more aggressive, and you're seeing that 275 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 2: the number of Australians who have that positive view of 276 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 2: China come down as a result. Obviously absolutely. How worried 277 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 2: are you as someone who has been on the front 278 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 2: line in that region, As I said, you were a 279 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 2: senior diplomat in Hong Kong until recently. How do you 280 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 2: see that playing out? Because I think, and again I 281 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 2: don't want to get too sort of high brower, esoteric, 282 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 2: but there's you know a lot of people have likened 283 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 2: the geopolitical kind of chessboard, if you like, to being 284 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 2: quite similar before the outbreak of World War One, where 285 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 2: you've got you know, an end of sort of bipolarity. 286 00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 2: You've got a great power seemingly on the decline in 287 00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:56,120 Speaker 2: the form of the US or you know, the UK 288 00:16:56,600 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 2: in twenty fourteen, and then you've got you know, emerging 289 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 2: power that thinks, hang on a minute, I haven't got 290 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,960 Speaker 2: my fair share. So China is a bit like Germany saying, 291 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 2: hang on, you guys have been taking all the goodies. 292 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:11,679 Speaker 2: It's time for us to It's time for us to 293 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:15,160 Speaker 2: stake our sort of claim on the globe. Is that 294 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:17,320 Speaker 2: too alarmist? Are you more? 295 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 1: I think, like with the US, we also need to 296 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:23,200 Speaker 1: be able to hold a few things in our minds 297 00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 1: at the same time. When it comes with China, one 298 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 1: of those is that there are good reasons to be 299 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 1: concerned about the way China is building up its military. 300 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 1: It hasn't really given clarity to other countries in the 301 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 1: region about what its intentions are. It's expressed clear designs 302 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:41,520 Speaker 1: to retake Taiwan if forced by necessary. It hasn't ruled 303 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 1: out the use of force. It hasn't said that it 304 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:46,159 Speaker 1: will do that either. We should be clear on that. 305 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 1: And you know, there are well documented human rights concerns 306 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 1: in China's They wielded their economic might as well against Australia. 307 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 1: We've seen that very clearly in the past few years. 308 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:01,640 Speaker 1: So all of those are good reasons for concern and 309 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 1: for and to be wary of China, which I think 310 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 1: shows very clearly in our polling figures. Here we see 311 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 1: only twenty percent of Australians trust China to act responsibly 312 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:13,359 Speaker 1: compared to thirty six percent of the US. Neither are 313 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 1: good figures, but less trust China. 314 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 2: Just quickly the figure you mentioned the US. I mean 315 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 2: more Australians think that Indonesia will behave more responsibly on 316 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:26,399 Speaker 2: the world stage than the US will, which you know, 317 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 2: when you consider the recent history of that country and 318 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 2: the fact that you've got a former military hard man 319 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 2: now is the president who the question will track record 320 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 2: that speaks volumes about how worried people are about the 321 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:42,400 Speaker 2: US and how low it's fallen in people's confidence. 322 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:44,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, look, I mean I have a sort of different 323 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:47,679 Speaker 1: perspective on Indonesia. I think, if anything, it's surprising that 324 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 1: we haven't been able to grow closer to Indonesia given 325 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,639 Speaker 1: its importance. It's weight that it's a country of I 326 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 1: think it's two hundred and fifty million people in our region, 327 00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:59,159 Speaker 1: it's going to be one of the major economies, and 328 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 1: we actually haven't managed over decades of foreign policy to 329 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,359 Speaker 1: become a closer partner with Indonesia, and part of that 330 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:08,639 Speaker 1: I think speaks to a difference in perceived values and 331 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:10,920 Speaker 1: a whole range of issues that have come up over 332 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,720 Speaker 1: the course of our relationship history. But look, I mean, 333 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 1: just returning to China, I think the other realities that 334 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:20,439 Speaker 1: we need to bear in mind, alongside the fact that 335 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:23,359 Speaker 1: it is building up its military, that it is saying 336 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 1: that it wants to retake Taiwan eventually, it remains our 337 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,200 Speaker 1: largest trading partner, and that's the fact that we've tried 338 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,399 Speaker 1: to change. We've tried to diversify, and we haven't been 339 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 1: able to do that just because of the weight of 340 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:37,439 Speaker 1: China's economy and what we sell to the world goes 341 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 1: predominantly to China. The other aspect is there is not 342 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,159 Speaker 1: a global issue that you can solve without China. So 343 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 1: whether it's climate change, preventing the next pandemic, you know, 344 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:52,160 Speaker 1: world War three, preventing World War three, that's definitely they're 345 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:57,159 Speaker 1: right in the center of that. So I think, I mean, 346 00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:58,960 Speaker 1: we need to be able to balance all of these things, 347 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:00,679 Speaker 1: and I think that's what the government is trying to do. 348 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 1: I mean, people will have different perspectives on how effective 349 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 1: they are at that, but we need to we need 350 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:09,399 Speaker 1: to recognize that China is important, it has it behaves 351 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,320 Speaker 1: in a way that concerns us in many respects, but 352 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 1: that we need to have a relationship with China in 353 00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:16,360 Speaker 1: order to manage all of those interests. 354 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. And again, as a very boring sort 355 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:21,439 Speaker 2: of pragmatist, I'm one of those people who says we 356 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:23,600 Speaker 2: need to keep a lot of balls in the air. 357 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 2: At the same time, we did walk into gum. There's 358 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:27,359 Speaker 2: all the people say, we just yell at China or 359 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:28,879 Speaker 2: yell at China and don't hate them. 360 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:29,959 Speaker 1: Yeah. 361 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:30,360 Speaker 2: I mean. 362 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 1: The other thing, I'm like, Donald. 363 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:33,640 Speaker 2: Trump is an idiot. It's like, I'm not sure that's 364 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 2: going to work. Yeah. 365 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 1: I mean. The other thing that that perhaps might be 366 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:40,159 Speaker 1: a bit overblown from time to time is the perception 367 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,360 Speaker 1: that China is out to get us. You know that 368 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 1: we did see China circumnavigate Australia before the last election. 369 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:50,640 Speaker 1: That's clearly a sign that they are now a power 370 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 1: that can then go wherever they like in the world, 371 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:55,680 Speaker 1: that they have the ability to project force outside of 372 00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 1: their region. They're trying to prove that. But that does 373 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 1: not mean that China would find it desirable or even 374 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:07,719 Speaker 1: practicable to invade Australia or take over Australia, right, I mean, 375 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,439 Speaker 1: I think that sometimes gets far overblown in how we 376 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,639 Speaker 1: look at China. What what China is ultimately trying to 377 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 1: do is prove that it is the dominant power in 378 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,120 Speaker 1: the region. It wants to push the US as far 379 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:20,960 Speaker 1: out of its its doorstep as it's as it can, 380 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 1: and once countries like Australia to event to essentially play 381 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: vassal states to its interests. It doesn't want to be 382 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:31,880 Speaker 1: opposed on what it sees as its core interest including Taiwan. 383 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: So that's that those are the sort of I think 384 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:36,679 Speaker 1: nuances that that are that are important to grasp with 385 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:38,000 Speaker 1: China's position. 386 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 2: And so where do you see this? And I guess 387 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:44,160 Speaker 2: we'll get into August and others very shortly, but where 388 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 2: do you where do you see it? Sort of any 389 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:50,159 Speaker 2: is China's rise inevitable or is China possibly going to 390 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 2: collapse under the weight of its own kind of demographics? 391 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 2: It's going to have an aging population, which we're all 392 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 2: sort of struggling to come to terms with. It's going 393 00:21:56,160 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 2: to have to pay for what happens when Jijingping He's 394 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 2: got dictated for life, obviously, but what happens when he dies? 395 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,400 Speaker 2: What you know, does the next guy? Is the next 396 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,440 Speaker 2: guy inevitably going to be another kind of party hard 397 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,160 Speaker 2: man in that mold? Or could he be a liberalizer? 398 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 2: Could she be a liberalizer? Maybe the next Susan Lay 399 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:16,119 Speaker 2: of China? 400 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 1: Could she be the liberal I think that boat has sailed. No, 401 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 1: I mean, look on China's rise. I okay, let's let's 402 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 1: bring it back to the sort of the what we 403 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:29,880 Speaker 1: found in the pole what Australians think about China's rise, 404 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 1: which is really interesting. Fifty six percent of Australians think 405 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:35,520 Speaker 1: that China will be the most powerful country in the 406 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:38,400 Speaker 1: world in ten years time. That's double the figure, more 407 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 1: than double the figure that think the US will remain 408 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 1: the most powerful country. 409 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:43,200 Speaker 2: In the world. 410 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 1: So in the minds of over half of the population, 411 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:50,560 Speaker 1: that is essentially already what they're expecting, that China will 412 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 1: be the dominant country in the world. There's been a 413 00:22:53,320 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 1: lot of skepticism or commentary about China's demographic trends, it's 414 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 1: domestic challenges, it's property market, it's it's economic it's slow 415 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:08,880 Speaker 1: down that it hasn't been able to maintain its high 416 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,240 Speaker 1: growth rates as in the past. But I think there's 417 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 1: still a lot of a lot of staying power when 418 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:17,400 Speaker 1: it comes to China, and it's and it's huge population, 419 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:23,639 Speaker 1: it's resolve to grow its power and it's and its economy. 420 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:26,800 Speaker 1: I mean, it can do things because it's an autocratic state. 421 00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 1: It can simply make things happen in a way that 422 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:30,800 Speaker 1: democracy is like Australia and the other states cars. 423 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:32,879 Speaker 2: Well India as well. If you look at India, India 424 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 2: is a much more complicated country because it is democratic 425 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:37,960 Speaker 2: and because you can't just sort of, you know, flood 426 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 2: a village of two hundred thousand people to build a 427 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,639 Speaker 2: new down if you want to or whatever. So, I mean, 428 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 2: one thing that's interesting is that this poll shows it, 429 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,200 Speaker 2: and it shows it every year, and I'm always impressed, 430 00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 2: but shows that Australians are pretty switched on, you know, 431 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 2: So I think a lot of people would I think 432 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:55,760 Speaker 2: Australians are all just sort of you know. 433 00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:57,440 Speaker 1: Attached from the world. 434 00:23:57,880 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 2: In the world. You know, I'm a sex overpaid and 435 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,400 Speaker 2: over here. You know, we grew here, you flew here, 436 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:03,879 Speaker 2: go back to where you came from. In fact, it 437 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:07,399 Speaker 2: shows Australians obviously really thinking about this stuff, and it 438 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,199 Speaker 2: seems to be getting it right, like they seem to 439 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:13,320 Speaker 2: be like what Australians think seems to be what I think. 440 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,440 Speaker 2: What you presumably for. 441 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 1: The most part, I think pretty yeah. 442 00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 2: Spot yeah. So this brings us to Orcus, which obviously 443 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:24,640 Speaker 2: everyone has been trying to take a crap on from 444 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 2: great height. But I'm a supporter of ucas. What do 445 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 2: the average Australians think of Aucus? What are they? 446 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,159 Speaker 1: Well, it's a pretty positive And actually I find this 447 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 1: interesting in that it's remained positive since the deal was 448 00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:40,160 Speaker 1: announced four years ago. This is the deal for. 449 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:41,399 Speaker 2: That four Corners episode. 450 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 1: Obviously that was that had some pretty serious concerns raised 451 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 1: about UCUST, But I mean, this is the deal we're 452 00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,040 Speaker 1: talking about. Just to be clear, what the question we 453 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 1: ask is do you favor or or not the acquisition 454 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 1: of nuclear powered submarines? We didn't ask about UCUST per se, 455 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,320 Speaker 1: And just that that the core of that deal is 456 00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 1: that the US is going to help us get nuclear 457 00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:09,160 Speaker 1: powered submarines in the future and several decades time. Yeah, yeah, 458 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,480 Speaker 1: it's a long timeline at a lot of large costs. 459 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 1: Two thirds of the public just on that central question 460 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 1: say yes, they favor it, and that hasn't really moved 461 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,359 Speaker 1: in a substantial way since four years ago. And that's 462 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,160 Speaker 1: despite the fact that you've had, you know, former Prime 463 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:27,359 Speaker 1: Ministers Paul Eating Malcolm Turnbull come out very strongly against Aucus. 464 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 1: You've had a whole You've had concerns about what is 465 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 1: having these submarines mean for our ability to say no 466 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,359 Speaker 1: to the United States, And what does it mean for 467 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,200 Speaker 1: the cost because it's three hundred and sixty billion is 468 00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 1: the estimate over thirty years, what does that mean for 469 00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:48,320 Speaker 1: the tradeoffs on other priorities health and education for instance. 470 00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:50,960 Speaker 1: So these are the questions that we're grappling with. I 471 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:52,919 Speaker 1: think there's a lot more debate to be run on 472 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:57,399 Speaker 1: orcus people haven't really had to contend with those tradeoffs particularly, 473 00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 1: and I think that's where we might start to see 474 00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 1: the rub come for August. But at the when you 475 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,000 Speaker 1: ask people about the capability, I think there's an instinctive 476 00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 1: well sure, I mean, I think it's better to have 477 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 1: a more formidable defense deterrent. But then how it's actually 478 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 1: going to play out, how we're going to make it happen, 479 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 1: is the questions that are yet unanswered. 480 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,159 Speaker 2: Right or whether the US because there's a clause that 481 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,560 Speaker 2: the US only gives us the submarines if it has 482 00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,160 Speaker 2: enough that are surplus to its own requirement. 483 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:25,640 Speaker 1: And there's serious concerns about its ability to sustain its 484 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:26,440 Speaker 1: own defense. 485 00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:29,879 Speaker 2: And my feeling is, and again, tell me if I'm wrong, 486 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,119 Speaker 2: but my feeling is, in fact, the submarines are just 487 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,520 Speaker 2: a kind of incredibly expensive mcguffin. The point of aucast 488 00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:40,280 Speaker 2: isn't necessarily getting the nuclear submarines and having that capability, 489 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,400 Speaker 2: although that would also obviously be welcome, but the fact 490 00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:48,080 Speaker 2: that it binds the US's strategic interests and Australia's strategic 491 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:52,080 Speaker 2: interest inextricably together. So you know, we've already got asis 492 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:56,199 Speaker 2: obviously our oldest treaty. But yeah, this basically means we 493 00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,000 Speaker 2: are essentially one and the same. Yeah. 494 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,639 Speaker 1: I think that's a pretty observation, Joe. I mean, there 495 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,119 Speaker 1: are people on both sides who advocate for AUCUST because 496 00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 1: of that. There are I think it was Kurt Campbell 497 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:13,520 Speaker 1: in the Biden administration, a very senior official who actually 498 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 1: made comments of that effect. When he was asked about UCAS, 499 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 1: he said that it is essentially about binding Australia into 500 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:23,919 Speaker 1: US strategy in the region. And there are many people 501 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,199 Speaker 1: that see UCUS as a vehicle to bind the US 502 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,280 Speaker 1: to the region in a way that is not certain 503 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:33,680 Speaker 1: under Donald Trump, mind you. So yeah, I think that's 504 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 1: one reason that some people advocate for AUCUST. But the 505 00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 1: other thing that's happening now is this review that the 506 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 1: Pentagon is doing into August. And so I mean, in 507 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 1: the one sense you're getting you've got some people trying 508 00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 1: to some leaders trying to maintain this common message of 509 00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:53,280 Speaker 1: deterrence US and Australia and UK in it together against 510 00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:57,120 Speaker 1: Chinese aggression. The other aspect of it is you've got 511 00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:58,800 Speaker 1: mixed signals coming out of the White House now and 512 00:27:58,840 --> 00:27:59,920 Speaker 1: we don't know where it's going to land. 513 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 2: And obviously, unfortunately the President Donald Trump had to leave 514 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 2: G seven before his scheduled meeting with Anthony Albanezi, but 515 00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 2: he did have time to have a meeting with Keys Starmer. 516 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 2: Because of course, there is another partner in UCUS, and 517 00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:17,280 Speaker 2: that's the UK and Starmer said the deal is still on, 518 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:21,560 Speaker 2: we are still proceeding. Does that mean presumably there can 519 00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:26,199 Speaker 2: be no UCUS. So if it's if is if the 520 00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:28,440 Speaker 2: US is proceeding with I think Donald Trump just sort 521 00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,320 Speaker 2: of nodded along. He didn't Presumably Trump's the sort of 522 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,159 Speaker 2: person who would not allow someone to say something they 523 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:39,000 Speaker 2: didn't like. But presumably if the UK is saying ORCUS 524 00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,720 Speaker 2: is still on, and if it's still on for them, 525 00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,040 Speaker 2: then surely it's still on for us. And maybe this 526 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:46,200 Speaker 2: review is just a bit of a bargaining chip that 527 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,400 Speaker 2: Donald Trump will use to try to get us to 528 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 2: ratchet up our defense spending. 529 00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,360 Speaker 1: Is potentially I mean, there's a number of ways this 530 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:54,840 Speaker 1: could go. I mean, I wouldn't say it's a that 531 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,320 Speaker 1: is definitive. And Donald Trump sort of nodding along with 532 00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:00,720 Speaker 1: the UK saying something, but Trump not he's saying something. 533 00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:02,960 Speaker 1: I mean. I think the first time Trump was asked 534 00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:06,640 Speaker 1: about aucust this this term, he said, what, I'm sorry. 535 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:06,840 Speaker 2: What's. 536 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 1: Of it? I don't know if. 537 00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 2: I think if you have to say that you've heard 538 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 2: of something, chances out you probably haven't. 539 00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,800 Speaker 1: But but I but I think you know there's a 540 00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:22,440 Speaker 1: number of ways this could play out, and one of 541 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,120 Speaker 1: them is that that Trump turns around and says, look, 542 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 1: you know, my my predecessor, Joe Biden made this terrible deal, 543 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:30,720 Speaker 1: and I'm going to make it better by asking the 544 00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:31,720 Speaker 1: Aussies to pay. 545 00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 2: More or you know, I'm the greatest I've got to be. 546 00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 1: Exactly, and then just rebranded and asked for a bit 547 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 1: more money. Or you know, it could go a number 548 00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,960 Speaker 1: of ways, or they could actually find that And this 549 00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:44,920 Speaker 1: is the more optimistic, hopeful path for US, is that 550 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:48,720 Speaker 1: that we succeed in convincing the US of the benefits 551 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,720 Speaker 1: of August to the US, I mean, we're paying into 552 00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:54,840 Speaker 1: their industrial base so they can make more submarines. Yeah, 553 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:57,239 Speaker 1: that's right. And you know, part of the rationale for this, 554 00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:02,560 Speaker 1: presumably is that we share that deterrence project of deterring 555 00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:10,480 Speaker 1: Chinese Darwin. It's burden sharing, you know. So that's the idea. So, 556 00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,360 Speaker 1: I mean, the idea that this is just that we're 557 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:17,200 Speaker 1: just kind of freeloaders on the US. I think Orcus 558 00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:19,719 Speaker 1: is a strong counterpoint to that. 559 00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, I couldn't agree mine, as I'm fond of saying, 560 00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 2: or as I do say Australia is the only ally 561 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 2: that has been with the US in every single of 562 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,520 Speaker 2: its foreign expeditions, however questionable. The French didn't go with 563 00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:34,880 Speaker 2: them to Iraq, the British didn't go with them to Vietnam. 564 00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:37,680 Speaker 2: We did. In both cases we paid for our loyalty, 565 00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,840 Speaker 2: you know, we showed our loyalty with blood. So that's 566 00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,120 Speaker 2: surely got to be I think we've proved ourselves that 567 00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 2: we're not just riding on the coattails of. 568 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:46,720 Speaker 1: I agree with you, but I don't think that counts 569 00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 1: for much with Trump. He's pretty values free, and I 570 00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:54,400 Speaker 1: don't think arguments of loyalty and history count for much. 571 00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,200 Speaker 1: It's more what are you going to deliver for him 572 00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 1: in that time? And how are you going to make 573 00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:58,160 Speaker 1: him look good? 574 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:04,320 Speaker 2: So just so we don't end on everyone's and I agree, 575 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:06,240 Speaker 2: and I completely agree with you, and even if I didn't, 576 00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:08,520 Speaker 2: be irrelevant because you're much more expert on these matters 577 00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:13,960 Speaker 2: than I am. But Candy scaffolding around Donald Trump can 578 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:18,920 Speaker 2: the sort of institutional congressional support for Australia in the US. 579 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:23,400 Speaker 2: Surely that will sort of outlast him and ameliorate some 580 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:25,280 Speaker 2: of his worst impulses. I know that Donald Trump is 581 00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:27,320 Speaker 2: draining the swamp and he's not listening to anyone who 582 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 2: is in fully maga or whatever. But he can only 583 00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:32,880 Speaker 2: be there for another three and a half years, assuming 584 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:36,160 Speaker 2: the conspiracy theorists are wrong and he doesn't appoint himself Jijingping. 585 00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,120 Speaker 2: Surely things sort of return to normal and August, being 586 00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:46,400 Speaker 2: such a long term agreement, will sort of outlast Donald Trump. 587 00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:48,520 Speaker 2: Or could he just tear it all up? What's the 588 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,960 Speaker 2: potential for his you know, what's what's the most amount 589 00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:52,720 Speaker 2: of damage you could do? 590 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:54,520 Speaker 1: So the most amount of damages, he could tear it 591 00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:58,240 Speaker 1: all up, and he could walk away from from alliances 592 00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 1: in the Pacific. We've seen him essentially turn his back 593 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,320 Speaker 1: on the alliance the NATO Alliance of the Europe has 594 00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:07,800 Speaker 1: said in as many words as you know, if NATO 595 00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:10,560 Speaker 1: allies don't, yeah, we're not going to come to unless 596 00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:12,360 Speaker 1: you pay your way. So that's that's the caveat. And 597 00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:16,000 Speaker 1: actually they're making steps to do that. But he's clearly 598 00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,240 Speaker 1: not he's not stariid or it doesn't have a sense 599 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,960 Speaker 1: that alliances are important for the US unless they deliver 600 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:27,200 Speaker 1: for it in a very clear way. And I think 601 00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:31,320 Speaker 1: the worst case scenario is that he actually starts to say, well, look, 602 00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:33,920 Speaker 1: I mean, Asia's pretty far away, and China is a 603 00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:38,480 Speaker 1: strong power. He's got a certain admiration for strong men, 604 00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,240 Speaker 1: and and you know, there are spheres of influence here, 605 00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:43,320 Speaker 1: and we you know, why do we need to spend 606 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,920 Speaker 1: all this US treasure and blood on maintaining a presence 607 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,200 Speaker 1: in Asia and balancing China. Why don't we kind of 608 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,120 Speaker 1: pull back closer to home now. I should say, none 609 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,760 Speaker 1: of the indications from the Trump administration so far show 610 00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,000 Speaker 1: that it's going to do that. His Defense secretary was 611 00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 1: actually pretty clear that that the administration sees this region 612 00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:08,240 Speaker 1: as a priority. Yet we are seeing Trump then kind 613 00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,600 Speaker 1: of look to Iran. You know, he's looking to Gaza. 614 00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:15,440 Speaker 1: He's got all these other things happening, and we've seen 615 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,400 Speaker 1: it before. Trump sort of looks at the next thing, 616 00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:20,160 Speaker 1: or something comes up and it catches. 617 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,160 Speaker 2: Up with him, doesn't it Either either it proves his 618 00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:27,280 Speaker 2: miracle cure doesn't work, or he gets sort of brought 619 00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:31,680 Speaker 2: back to some kind of bandwidth of normality, maybe on 620 00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:36,560 Speaker 2: the very fringes of normality, but something that isn't quite catastrophic. 621 00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:38,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think there's good reasons to be 622 00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,920 Speaker 1: sort of sober about what the you know, there are 623 00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:45,400 Speaker 1: there are very bad scenarios that could play out, but 624 00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:49,320 Speaker 1: you know, the likelihood of those happening is not necessarily high. 625 00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:51,840 Speaker 1: But we have to be vigilant, especially when it comes 626 00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:55,080 Speaker 1: to what Trump is doing on global institution. So when 627 00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:58,240 Speaker 1: we talk about trade, well, trade, he's taking a sledge hammer. 628 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,040 Speaker 1: So the system that has made us Raelia rich, essentially 629 00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:03,720 Speaker 1: the idea that you have open rules based trade where 630 00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:06,960 Speaker 1: countries aren't putting tariffs on each other. He's actually basically 631 00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:10,239 Speaker 1: revolution I completely changed that and up end of that 632 00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:13,000 Speaker 1: system in a matter of months, and we have to 633 00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:14,759 Speaker 1: be worried about that. The other thing is we have 634 00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,759 Speaker 1: to be worried about what he says about taking Greenland, 635 00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:23,280 Speaker 1: annexing the Panama Canal, you know, making Canada the fifty 636 00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,759 Speaker 1: first stake. You might it's kind of tempting to laugh 637 00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:30,160 Speaker 1: it off, right, but you know, this is the supposed 638 00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,640 Speaker 1: leader of the free world saying that he threatening the 639 00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:37,719 Speaker 1: use of force to take territory from other countries. We 640 00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,560 Speaker 1: have not seen that since World War II. You know, 641 00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:43,759 Speaker 1: a major power like the United States saying that it 642 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,319 Speaker 1: would do that and to treaty allies no less so 643 00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,120 Speaker 1: there are norms that are at stake that have actually 644 00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:51,680 Speaker 1: held the world together and kept you know, large scale. 645 00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,520 Speaker 1: To come back to your starting point, world War three 646 00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,839 Speaker 1: from happening, and those right now are very much under 647 00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,279 Speaker 1: assault from all sides. Go. 648 00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:01,880 Speaker 2: So world War three is happening. 649 00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,600 Speaker 1: I'm not sure I helped you with the mission of 650 00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:06,760 Speaker 1: stopping people from jumping out the windows. 651 00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:09,960 Speaker 2: Well we'll just mean they. I'll just have to tune 652 00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:12,000 Speaker 2: in next week to find out whether or well still here, 653 00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,400 Speaker 2: Ryan Neil, thank you so much for joining us on 654 00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:15,840 Speaker 2: the real estate. Absolute pleasure. 655 00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:16,480 Speaker 1: Thanks so much. 656 00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,719 Speaker 2: Chair cheers well on that cheery note. That's all we 657 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:21,479 Speaker 2: have time for this week, and if there is still 658 00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,440 Speaker 2: a world left in which we are all alive, we 659 00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:26,480 Speaker 2: will see you next week. In the meantime, you can 660 00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:29,920 Speaker 2: flick us an email at the Real Story at Novapodcasts 661 00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:32,839 Speaker 2: dot com dot au. You can hit me up on Insta, 662 00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:37,960 Speaker 2: Joe Underscore Hildebrand, slide into my DM chat, or you 663 00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:41,359 Speaker 2: can just like everything I post, which is not very much, 664 00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,120 Speaker 2: but it's quality, not quantity. It's not what you've got, 665 00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:47,400 Speaker 2: it's anyway. You can also cash my columns every Monday 666 00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:49,720 Speaker 2: and Saturday in the various News Corp mast heads around 667 00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,560 Speaker 2: the country. And of course you can leave us a 668 00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,760 Speaker 2: review or you can leave us a five star rating 669 00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:59,040 Speaker 2: on the podcast provider of your choice. Till then see 670 00:35:59,080 --> 00:35:59,600 Speaker 2: you next week. 671 00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:01,840 Speaker 1: The Pissed Pity