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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news. You can use

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Speaker 1: today forecasts for record house prices by the end of

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Speaker 1: next year, even as the spring selling season stutters just

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Speaker 1: a little. Shoppers expected to spend more than seven billion

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Speaker 1: dollars over the next week as Black Friday, Cyber Monday

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Speaker 1: sales kickoff and new rules for electronics on aircraft. Plus,

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Speaker 1: Anthony Albanezi is part of a G twenty pledge to

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Speaker 1: achieve net zero and Germany says Ukraine should be party

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Speaker 1: to any US negotiated peace deal with Russia. It is Monday,

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Speaker 1: the twenty fourth of November twenty twenty five. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and good morning, Sean Ailmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. Experts are forecasting record house

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Speaker 1: prices across all capital cities by the end of next year,

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Speaker 1: and rental growth is set to accelerate once again, even

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Speaker 1: as the local market seems to take a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a breather with slightly disappointing clearance rates over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: But maybe I've just got high expectations now.

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Speaker 2: I think that's fair enough.

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Speaker 3: The Domain Annual Forecast report says that after years of

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Speaker 3: affordability strain and tight supply. The next twelve months will

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Speaker 3: see a surge in prices, three cuts in interest rates

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Speaker 3: this year, rising household incomes and a wave of first

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Speaker 3: home by demand under the expanded first Home guarantee scheme

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Speaker 3: will push prices higher. However, by the end of twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty six, new supply will hit the market and affordability

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Speaker 3: issues will again become prominent, so the surge is likely

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Speaker 3: to taper into twenty twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: That's all. According to Domain, the.

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Speaker 3: Online property group expects median house prices in Sydney to

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Speaker 3: jump to one point nine two million dollars this year,

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Speaker 3: almost two million dollars median house price in Sydney ridiculous.

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Speaker 3: Melbourne will hit one point two million. That's about the

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Speaker 3: same as Canberra. Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth prices have been

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Speaker 3: surging for a couple of years now. Now they're tipped

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Speaker 3: to still rise, but at a much much lower pace

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Speaker 3: of four or five percent. Demain reckons that the rush

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Speaker 3: of first home buyers competing with investors will inject new

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Speaker 3: energy into the market, and they're calling that the equivalent

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Speaker 3: of five infrastrate cuts at once. Wow, could you imagine

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Speaker 3: if you actually cut interest rates by one point to

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Speaker 3: five percentage points.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's an extraordinary amount of competition going to the market.

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Speaker 3: The bad news for renters really is that after a

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Speaker 3: reprieve this year, they're likely to do it tough with

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Speaker 3: rents accelerating again across the country over the next twelve

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Speaker 3: months or so.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting that a lot of this kind of forecast

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Speaker 1: is based on a significant amount of supply coming in

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Speaker 1: towards the end of next year, isn't it, which may

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Speaker 1: be a little optimistic, yes, or.

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Speaker 3: Maybe it's pessimistic that it's going to take that much

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Speaker 3: time to get The construction sector is actually doing okay

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Speaker 3: at the moment. It's funny, you know.

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Speaker 2: You know, I was up on the Gold Coast most

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Speaker 2: of some of last.

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Speaker 3: Week, and the amount of new building up there is phenomenal,

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Speaker 3: high rise apartments, huge amount going on at the moment.

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Speaker 3: When all that comes online, you know there's going to

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Speaker 3: be a lot more housing around. Hopefully that will take

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Speaker 3: some pressure off.

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Speaker 1: And I suppose you have kind of good visibility over

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Speaker 1: what is expected to come online because you need building

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Speaker 1: approvals and everything that happen a long way ahead of

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Speaker 1: the property is actually becoming available.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly right.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so the outlook then is good then based on

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Speaker 1: these prices, But what about the spring selling season season

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Speaker 1: which which actually ends this week. We are on the

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Speaker 1: verge of summer, sean.

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Speaker 3: I know, when I was thinking about the spring selling

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Speaker 3: season finishing in a week's time, I thought that means

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Speaker 3: we must be in summer. And that is ridiculous.

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Speaker 1: Yep, yep. It has come around very very quickly. It's

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Speaker 1: just it is alarming how fast twenty twenty five has gone.

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Speaker 3: Yes, I reckon the market has just run out of

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Speaker 3: steam a bit now that, according to Totality figures, the

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Speaker 3: preliminary clearance rate for auctions over the past week back

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Speaker 3: below seventy percent first time in more than five months.

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Speaker 3: Plenty of homes going up for auction, about three thousand

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Speaker 3: across the country over the past week, about thirty four

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Speaker 3: hundred this coming week, but the proportion of sales are

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Speaker 3: just declining. Both Sydney and Melbourne have fallen under that

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Speaker 3: seventy percent mark. Brisbane was at its lowest in eight weeks.

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Speaker 3: The consensus view among market economists and housing experts is

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Speaker 3: that the steam is coming out just a little bit,

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Speaker 3: but they do think prices will rise. It's just there's

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Speaker 3: a bit of nervousness around the place.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it does seem to be the case now, Sean, Sean,

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Speaker 1: the big week in retail, and I know you're a

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Speaker 1: shop I was kind of hesitating here because we talked

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Speaker 1: about this yesterday on Ask Fear and Greed on Sunday,

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Speaker 1: right about the fact that you're not a huge shopper necessarily,

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Speaker 1: and Adam Lang, our Fear and Greet colleague, was in

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Speaker 1: on this conversation, and we're giving our best tips to

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Speaker 1: make the most of the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales.

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Speaker 1: You could probably you would struggle to find three less

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Speaker 1: qualified people to give shopping tips, but we did it. Anyway.

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Speaker 1: More than six point eight billion dollars is expected to

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Speaker 1: be spent over the next week, which is a staggering figure.

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Speaker 2: Yes.

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Speaker 3: In fact, the six point eight billion dollars figure is

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Speaker 3: what Roy Morgan has estimated for the four days from

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Speaker 3: Friday to next Monday.

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Speaker 2: Wow, so I.

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Speaker 3: Think you're probably going to get close to eight billion dollars.

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Speaker 3: You know, on back and ronvelope calculation that one there

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Speaker 3: has been a shift in spending day I think this

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Speaker 3: is really interesting. So a survey by Boston Consulting Group,

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Speaker 3: one of the big consulting groups out there, suggests people

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Speaker 3: are now using the sales more for essential items rather

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Speaker 3: than big ticket goods, so rather than buying TVs, and

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Speaker 3: that they might load up on toilet power I think

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Speaker 3: was one of the examples that BCG gave. The Boston

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Speaker 3: Consultant Group work also shows the amount needed to discount

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Speaker 3: items to draw in customers, particularly Millennial and gen Z's

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Speaker 3: really range. So, for example, a consumer will think a

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Speaker 3: clothing and shoe sale is a good deal if they

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Speaker 3: can get a thirty six percent discount, athletic equipment you

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Speaker 3: can get a twenty eight percent discount, then it's.

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Speaker 2: A good deal.

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Speaker 3: So it goes through all these different categories. And I've

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Speaker 3: just given you the two outlies there of when people

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Speaker 3: think the deal is good. Oh, hothing and shoes thirty

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Speaker 3: six percent, sporting goods twenty eight percent.

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Speaker 1: God, the science behind it is really quite something, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's quite spectacular.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Now, speaking of spectacular, a heck of a week

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Speaker 1: last week on the Mark on the local share market

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Speaker 1: and also on Wall Street. The local Boss set for

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Speaker 1: a bounce when it opens this morning, with futures training

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Speaker 1: suggesting it'll jump by one percent. That comes after a

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Speaker 1: one point six percent tumble on Friday.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so, Wall Street surged over the weekend on the

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Speaker 3: back of hopes of another rate cut in the world's

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Speaker 3: largest economy. The New York fred Fed president John Williams,

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Speaker 3: who's quite an influential guy. Over the weekend, he said

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Speaker 3: there was room to ease borrowing costs in the near term.

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Speaker 3: Traders have now priced in a seventy percent chances of

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Speaker 3: a rate cut in the US next month. That sent

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Speaker 3: Wall Street higher. That should help us going the opposite direction. Bitcoin,

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Speaker 3: it tumbled to eighty thousand US dollars a unit over

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Speaker 3: the weekend. It lost about twenty five percent of its

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Speaker 3: value this month alone. In commodities, goals trading around four

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Speaker 3: thousand and sixty eight US dollars and out sign ores

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Speaker 3: about one hundred and four US dollars a ton, saying

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Speaker 3: above that one hundred dollar mark. Brent oil settled at

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Speaker 3: about sixty four US dollars barrel over the weekend, as

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Speaker 3: trade has weighed the prospect of a peace deal between

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Speaker 3: Russia and the Ukraine the main local economic data out

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Speaker 3: this week, Michael, the October inflation data, which everyone will

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Speaker 3: be keenly watching.

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Speaker 1: That's very exciting, and we talk about this and fearing

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Speaker 1: greed Q and A the week ahead this morning with

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Speaker 1: our resident economist Stephen could call us and particularly exciting

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Speaker 1: because it is the first of the expanded monthly data sets,

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Speaker 1: which is which is really quite Stephen even got me

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Speaker 1: very excited about that, about the fact that this is

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Speaker 1: suddenly a much broader look at where the price pressures

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Speaker 1: are in the economy.

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Speaker 3: So what's really exciting about that is that we have

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Speaker 3: We've got the September quarter inflation figure that was much

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Speaker 3: higher than expected, changes everyone's view. But from this month,

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Speaker 3: the October figure, because it is so much broader, it

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Speaker 3: will be much richer than previous months, so we won't

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Speaker 3: have to wait for the quarterly figure to work out

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Speaker 3: what's going on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, and Stephen's explanation of kind of then how you're

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Speaker 1: going to how we can use that as a comparison

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Speaker 1: with the previous month as well, considering the ABS has

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Speaker 1: actually done something quite clever with running parallel sets of

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Speaker 1: data along the whole period, so well worth a lesson.

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Speaker 1: It's coming up a bit later on. In the meantime,

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Speaker 1: we're going to take a quick break back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business sewn. Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister Anthony Albernezi and other world leaders issued a declaration

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Speaker 1: at the G twenty summit in South Africa over the weekend,

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Speaker 1: backing the Paris Climate Change Agreement, endorsing net zero climate

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Speaker 1: emissions by the middle of the century, and praising free trade.

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Speaker 3: The federal government also signed up to a voluntary statement

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Speaker 3: calling for a plan to eventually phase out fossil fuel.

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Speaker 3: The G twenty summit was controversial from the beginning, with

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Speaker 3: US President Donald Trump boycotting the conference in Johannesburg following

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Speaker 3: months of accusations that South Africa was discriminating against minority,

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Speaker 3: minority white Africanas. The meeting overlapped with the end of

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Speaker 3: COP thirty in Brazil. Its final communicat well, it wasn't

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Speaker 3: what many people had hoped for. I suppose it didn't

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Speaker 3: mention fossil fuels for example. However, did introduce global trade

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Speaker 3: as an issue, clearly a swipe at Donald Trump. That

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Speaker 3: one alban Easy said it was a good thing that

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Speaker 3: all the cop summit participants had been able to agree

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Speaker 3: on a communicat even it was a bit disappointing, saying

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Speaker 3: it was a positive sign that the world wanted to

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Speaker 3: get on with communicating with each other.

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Speaker 1: And while I was still on politics, the Federal Labor

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Speaker 1: Party has widened its lead over the opposition In the

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Speaker 1: latest News poll in the Australian. The government has a

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Speaker 1: head fifty eight percent to forty two percent on a

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Speaker 1: two party preferred basis. That's a solid margin.

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Speaker 3: More than the length of the Strait. When it comes

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Speaker 3: to politics, well done. Core support for the coalition is

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Speaker 3: static at just twenty four percent, its lowest level since

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Speaker 3: primary voters were first counted in November nineteen eighty five.

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Speaker 3: So we've got forty years of records. This is at

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Speaker 3: the lowest point of those records. Opposition leader Susan Lee's

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Speaker 3: approval rating has risen slightly, from minus thirty three to

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Speaker 3: minus twenty nine. The Pole says Andrew Hasty, he has

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Speaker 3: emerged as the most popular preferred opposition leader. They were

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Speaker 3: almost half of all respondents to the survey didn't know

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Speaker 3: who they preferred, so I don't think it's fair to

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Speaker 3: say Andrew Hasty is the front runner at all One

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Speaker 3: Nation was really the winner. We've seen that in the

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Speaker 3: last couple of polls it recorded a record high fifteen

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Speaker 3: percent primary vat.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that those figures for Andrew Hasty and Susan Lee

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Speaker 1: is pretty damning overall for the entire coalition because he

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Speaker 1: had Susan Lee on twenty one percent as preferred, Andrew

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Speaker 1: Hasty on fifteen percent, and then forty six percent saying

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Speaker 1: they don't actually know, So forty six percent compared to

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Speaker 1: the actual person who is currently doing the job at

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Speaker 1: twenty one percent, and so it's like that that sounds

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Speaker 1: disastrous really. Moving on away from politics, passengers on Australian

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Speaker 1: Airlines SEAN will no longer be able to use power

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Speaker 1: banks during flights in a crackdown aimed at preventing cabin fires.

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Speaker 3: The move's match action taken by international aviation authorities this year.

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Speaker 3: They kick in next month and cover Virgin Quantisan jets.

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Speaker 3: Airlines and passengers should store spare batteries and personal electronic

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Speaker 3: devices in the seat pocket or under the seat in

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Speaker 3: front of them. They can carry up the two power banks,

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Speaker 3: but they can't use them. Basically, the changes come after

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Speaker 3: a lithium batteries stored in an overhead baggage compartment caught

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Speaker 3: fire during a Virgin Australia flight from Sydney to Hoe

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Speaker 3: but earlier in the year the cabin filled with smoke,

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Speaker 3: and that one last week, one hundred and fifty people

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Speaker 3: were evacuated from Quantits's Melbourne business class lounge after a

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Speaker 3: passenger's battery caught fire while charging. Now, the International Air

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Speaker 3: Transport Association recommends that if passengers need to pack a

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Speaker 3: personal electronic device in their check baggage, they must be

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Speaker 3: completely switched off, not be packed inflammable liquids such as perfumes,

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Speaker 3: clones and aerosols.

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Speaker 2: Keep it in mind, it always worries me.

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Speaker 3: I'd actually prefer to have all those things close by

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Speaker 3: rather than packed away in the cellway.

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Speaker 1: Oh completely agree, but I'm also alarmed by the fact

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Speaker 1: that they're changing these rules, but they'll take effects next month.

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Speaker 1: You know what, if it's a enough to change the rules, yes,

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Speaker 1: effective immediately. I think it's a good idea. Now, why

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Speaker 1: set Global held its AGM on Friday and mid calls

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Speaker 1: from the Australian Shareholders Association FORIGN battled CEO Richard White

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Speaker 1: to take a one year sabbatical.

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Speaker 3: Let's face it, that ain't going to happen anyway. Why

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Speaker 3: did you get emotional at the meeting? It's kind of

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Speaker 3: interesting he shed a tear when talking about the business

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Speaker 3: which he started. The emotion didn't prevent a strike against

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Speaker 3: the remuneration report. Why reconfirmed revenue guidance? Lead director Andrew Harrison?

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Speaker 3: Remember Richard White's executive chair. So the lead director round

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Speaker 3: the meeting, Andrew Harrison. So the AGM was a time

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Speaker 3: for us to reflect, to be transparent, and to thank

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Speaker 3: you a shareholders for the trust you continue to place

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Speaker 3: in this company.

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Speaker 2: Harrison says.

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Speaker 3: The board and management are cooperating with authorities and making

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Speaker 3: decisions to protect wise texts, stability and long term success.

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Speaker 1: All right, turning to international news now, Sean, don't mean

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Speaker 1: to sound exasperated at the goings on, going on, goings

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Speaker 1: on adwis Tech Global, but yeah, anyway.

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Speaker 3: Well this next story is equally exasperating, especially if you're

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Speaker 3: a Ukrainian.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, indeed, this is international news now. Ukraine's Western allies

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Speaker 1: have called for quote, additional work on a US Russia

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Speaker 1: peace plan and for the EU and NATO to be

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Speaker 1: given a say over its contents as they seek to

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Speaker 1: delay the terms that are being forced on Kiev.

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Speaker 3: Fourteen leaders from countries that include European states plus Japan,

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Speaker 3: Canada and Australia said that the initial draft of the

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Speaker 3: twenty eight point plan includes important elements that will be

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Speaker 3: essential for a just and lasting peace, but more work

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Speaker 3: is needed. The meeting between the leaders and the sidelines

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Speaker 3: of the G twenty summit was called in response to

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Speaker 3: a demand from Donald Trump's administration that Ukraine agreed to

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Speaker 3: the twenty eight point proposal by Thursday.

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Speaker 2: This week, US.

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Speaker 3: Officials warned that there was little room to negotiate a

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Speaker 3: plan described by European officials as a capitulation to Moscow.

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Speaker 3: Speaking after the meeting, German Chancellor Frederick Merz told reporters

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Speaker 3: and he sounded quite sensible. He said, wars cannot be

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Speaker 3: ended by great powers over the heads of the affected countries.

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Speaker 2: Kind of makes sense.

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Speaker 3: He added that any solution must involve the consent of

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Speaker 3: Ukraine and Europe.

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Speaker 2: According to the.

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Speaker 3: FT, the US has warned Kiev that if it does

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Speaker 3: not agree to the plan, which demands that Ukraine relinquish

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Speaker 3: territory pledged never to join NATO and shrinks its armed forces,

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Speaker 3: it risks losing critical military and intelligence support.

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Speaker 1: Now in the UK, Sean Daily Mail owner DMgt has

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Speaker 1: done a five hundred million pounds deal to buy rival

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Speaker 1: newspaper The Telegraph, in a tie up that will create

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Speaker 1: one of the most powerful right leaning media groups in Britain.

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Speaker 2: Shall I have a Rupert Murdoch? The Daily Mail is coming?

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Speaker 1: I think many people say that to Rupert Murdoch.

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Speaker 3: The agreed takeover comes barely a week after a US

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Speaker 3: private equity group stopped its own attempt to buy the

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Speaker 3: one hundred and seventy year old newspaper Lord Rothermere this way,

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Speaker 3: I like the stories wrought.

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Speaker 2: Lord rotheramare is in it. Who owns Daily Mail and General.

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Speaker 3: Trust has long wanted to buy a Telegraph media group

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Speaker 3: in a bid to bring the two together. A merge

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Speaker 3: of The Daily Mail and The Telegraph will redraw the

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Speaker 3: traditional lines of Britain's Fleet Street, creating one of the

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Speaker 3: largest UK media groups in the dominant voice in right

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Speaker 3: wing politics at a time when the Reform Party is

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Speaker 3: growing in popularity against the left wing labor government.

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Speaker 1: Michael all Right coming up next. Sean Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: Q and A. It is the week ahead with our

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Speaker 1: resident economist, Stephen could call us plenty to talk about

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Speaker 1: it's coming up next in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot com todau,

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Speaker 1: which is where you sign up for the I was

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Speaker 1: going to say the infamous daily newsletter. There's nothing infamous

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Speaker 1: about it. There's no scandal.

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Speaker 2: No, I know, we need more scandal than the news.

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Speaker 1: Maybe we should subscribe to Today and we might just

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Speaker 1: add a little little bit of.

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Speaker 2: Scandal, just a bit of bridget and style.

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Speaker 1: Oh, just to spice things up a bit. Thank you

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Speaker 1: very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Monday, the twenty fourth of November twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and that was Fair and Greed. Have a great day.