WEBVTT - The new One Nation voters 0:00:01.400 --> 0:00:09.880 I'm Ruby Jones and you're listening to seven AM. For 0:00:09.920 --> 0:00:13.040 the first time in history, almost one in five Australians 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:16.960 support One Nation. Their surgeon popularity comes as the Liberal 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:19.880 Party bleeds support from both ends of its base as 0:00:19.880 --> 0:00:22.239 it tears itself a part of a climate and immigration. 0:00:23.800 --> 0:00:26.360 So is this just a protest or the start of 0:00:26.360 --> 0:00:30.200 a permanent shift on the right of Australian politics Today, 0:00:30.320 --> 0:00:34.040 Director of Strategy and Analytics at Redbridge cost samrus on 0:00:34.159 --> 0:00:36.760 why One Nation is soaring and what it means for 0:00:36.800 --> 0:00:37.280 the country. 0:00:40.720 --> 0:00:42.400 It's Wednesday, November nineteen. 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:51.440 So, as Susan Lee likes to say, the Coalition didn't 0:00:51.479 --> 0:00:55.760 just lose the last election, they were quote smashed. 0:00:56.000 --> 0:01:02.400 Totally smashed, as the Liberal Party presented to the Australian 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:05.320 people was comprehensively rejected. 0:01:05.800 --> 0:01:09.959 So tell me what that meant exactly what proportion of 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:13.000 people actually voted for the coalition and who were they? 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:14.840 Okay, So the first thing we need to look at 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:18.600 is the number of seats they won in our large 0:01:18.600 --> 0:01:22.560 capital cities. So it's about nine out of about ninety 0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:26.080 that are urban electorates in this country. Two of them 0:01:26.080 --> 0:01:28.200 are in Melbourne, three of them in Sydney and the 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:32.440 rest are in Brisbane. They've been completely pushed out of Adelaide, Perth, 0:01:32.840 --> 0:01:34.720 They've never had a held a seat in Hobarts. That's 0:01:35.000 --> 0:01:38.920 really doesn't count in this conversation, but there is a 0:01:38.959 --> 0:01:42.080 life prospect that come next election they'll lose their footing 0:01:42.080 --> 0:01:45.640 in both Melbourne and Sydney. And these are two cities 0:01:45.880 --> 0:01:49.920 which of course have got massive population growth occurring, massive 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:54.360 enrollment occurring. So that's one level of smashing, so to speak. 0:01:54.800 --> 0:01:57.280 The next one is, of course, what happened to them 0:01:57.280 --> 0:02:01.240 amongst Generation Z, so that is Australians between the ages 0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:05.880 of eighteen and twenty eight. They received about fifteen to 0:02:06.400 --> 0:02:10.080 twenty percent of the vote amongst this generation. If we 0:02:10.200 --> 0:02:16.320 remove regional and provincial Australia from that, amongst this generation 0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:18.720 it drops down to the low teens and right now 0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:22.440 as we speak, their polling numbers are at ten percent 0:02:22.919 --> 0:02:26.480 for generations. So it's a structural clubs. So whether it's 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:31.080 diverse Australians, whether it's younger Australians, even millennials, the oldest 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:35.080 is forty four this year. Even they are bad for 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:37.960 the Coalition, they're not becoming more conservative as the year's 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:42.600 roll on every metric that we look at, except for 0:02:42.840 --> 0:02:46.000 baby boomers and those who own their homes outright, they 0:02:46.000 --> 0:02:47.079 are doing badly. 0:02:48.240 --> 0:02:51.520 And their decision to scrap net zero. 0:02:52.120 --> 0:02:55.840 How does that square with what your research shows about 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:58.000 what the liberal base wants. 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:01.600 Yeah, well, the liberal base that they have still sitting 0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:05.160 in their column are probably okay with this narrative when 0:03:05.160 --> 0:03:09.919 that is they basically abandon that zero and basically don't 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:14.600 pursue an aggressive posture when it comes to climate change. 0:03:14.760 --> 0:03:18.120 The problem is that that is almost your entry ticket 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:21.600 to talk into younger Australians. When we speak to a 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:24.120 lot of Australians. When we say okay, so do you 0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:28.440 think our transition to where your RGE is going to 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:33.040 result in cheaper energy prices? Most Australians will tell us no, 0:03:33.160 --> 0:03:35.680 I don't think so. I think right now my literricity 0:03:35.720 --> 0:03:38.480 bills are going up. And then we ask some of 0:03:38.480 --> 0:03:40.600 the next question, So does that mean that the country 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:45.080 needs to slow down? No, I say. In other words, 0:03:45.800 --> 0:03:50.160 I the consumer understand there are problems with the transition. 0:03:50.760 --> 0:03:53.800 Governments have not moved fast enough and things are more 0:03:53.840 --> 0:03:56.800 expensive now, But that does not give you an excuse 0:03:56.920 --> 0:03:59.720 to not take action on climate. And this is where 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:02.800 I think the coalitions misreading the data, where they don't 0:04:02.840 --> 0:04:08.440 understand that most Australians actually are quite complex human beings. Right. 0:04:08.480 --> 0:04:12.600 They will have all sorts of contradictory views about policy areas, 0:04:13.280 --> 0:04:16.159 but in the end they still have a view that 0:04:16.360 --> 0:04:18.560 climate as a problem needs to be tackled. 0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:22.840 And you mentioned the people who aren't voting for the coalition, so. 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:24.799 People in cities, young people. 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:28.920 But to take a broader view, just how bad is 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:30.240 it for the Liberal. 0:04:30.080 --> 0:04:33.040 Party right now? How low is their polling? 0:04:33.360 --> 0:04:36.120 Yeah, we have them at about twenty percent if we 0:04:36.160 --> 0:04:39.560 take out the National Party. Most of that twenty percent 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:43.239 is inflated by the Queensland and OLMP, So their numbers 0:04:43.279 --> 0:04:46.120 are in the teens in the southern states of New 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:50.839 Soopwhales and Victoria and Adelaide and Perth. And we haven't 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:54.119 seen the bottom yet. And they're losing their right flank 0:04:54.160 --> 0:04:58.160 to one Nation, and they're losing whatever is left of 0:04:58.200 --> 0:05:00.760 their moderate vote to the Labor Party or the till 0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:05.160 Independence and they're getting smashed from both sides. They're a 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:06.960 very very serious predicatment at the moment. 0:05:07.440 --> 0:05:11.520 Cause you mentioned one Nation, their popularity is surging while 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:15.720 the coalition goes down. So tell me, just yea, how 0:05:15.760 --> 0:05:17.520 popular is one nation at the moment? 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:20.960 Yeah, so one nation is growing at the expense of 0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:24.640 the coalition. So from the August of thirty first, when 0:05:24.640 --> 0:05:31.279 we had those anti immigration rallies take place, a lot 0:05:31.320 --> 0:05:34.599 of us who have started this space predicted that what 0:05:34.680 --> 0:05:37.719 will happen is that the right flank of the Coalition 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:38.279 will splinter. 0:05:38.520 --> 0:05:42.279 Shadow Home Affairs Minister Andrew Hasty has resigned from the 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:46.000 Liberal frontbench, declaring he can no longer remain silent on 0:05:46.040 --> 0:05:48.400 the issue of immigration the movement. 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:51.720 When you elevate issues like this, if immigration is an 0:05:51.720 --> 0:05:54.920 issue of salience to a voter, that vote will vite 0:05:54.960 --> 0:05:57.320 for the genuine real deal before they vote for someone 0:05:57.600 --> 0:06:00.839 who's trying to balance the books to speak and not 0:06:00.920 --> 0:06:04.800 actually offend everyone. So the element of the coalition vote 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:07.800 that is anti immigration has gone to one nation. 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:12.880 What have I been warning Australians about for nearly three decades, 0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:16.839 the high immigration coming to this country. 0:06:16.960 --> 0:06:17.360 It has. 0:06:17.640 --> 0:06:19.680 That's one side of the corn. The other side of 0:06:19.680 --> 0:06:21.960 the corn, of course, is the other growth it's occurring 0:06:22.400 --> 0:06:26.359 for one nation is again still coalition voters not animated 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:29.240 by immigration, but by a sense that the major party 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:32.120 they used to support is just not up to it. 0:06:32.120 --> 0:06:34.800 They've given up, so they're going they're just voting for 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:38.440 One Nation now because basically they think the Liberal Party 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:40.880 in particular is just not up to the job and 0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:43.880 they've lost hope. And so we've seen this surge of 0:06:43.960 --> 0:06:47.320 one oation up to about eighteen percent nationally, and it's 0:06:47.440 --> 0:06:50.360 largely made up of Gen X and young baby boomers 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:54.480 living in our regions and out of suburban areas. 0:06:54.720 --> 0:06:58.200 And eighteen percent, that's a high figure for one Nation. 0:06:58.640 --> 0:07:00.080 Can you talk to me a bit about. 0:07:00.120 --> 0:07:03.520 How that fits in with the party's popularity over time? 0:07:03.680 --> 0:07:06.520 What are the drivers of success for a party like 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:07.039 One Nation. 0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:10.480 We haven't seen these sort of numbers before. One Nation 0:07:10.640 --> 0:07:15.000 has done well historically in some electrical cycles, but what 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:17.480 we've always seen is that number will dissipate as we 0:07:17.520 --> 0:07:20.680 are close to an election. What we've never seen before 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:24.480 is a one nation vote this high paired up with 0:07:24.720 --> 0:07:29.280 an historically low coalition vote. This is the big difference. 0:07:29.320 --> 0:07:33.120 We are seeing similar pattern to what we are witnessing 0:07:33.160 --> 0:07:37.840 in the UK, where reform is gobbling up. Basically the 0:07:37.840 --> 0:07:41.720 Conservative vote. So I wouldn't necessarily rule out that we 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:45.400 are actually living for a transformative period where there is 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:49.720 a possibility that the Little Party doesn't bounce back, That 0:07:49.760 --> 0:07:54.600 we are looking at a transition period where politics in 0:07:54.600 --> 0:07:56.680 this country is going to look very drastically different. In 0:07:56.680 --> 0:07:57.480 twenty twenty. 0:07:57.280 --> 0:08:04.680 Eight, coming up, what happens when the fringe gobbles up 0:08:04.800 --> 0:08:14.720 the center. So you're describing what sounds like a bit 0:08:14.720 --> 0:08:18.000 of a death spiral for the Liberal Party at the moment. 0:08:18.640 --> 0:08:22.480 Do you foresee some sort of coalition with one nation 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:23.200 in the future. 0:08:23.520 --> 0:08:27.040 I could see that. Yes, Yes, I wouldn't rule that out, 0:08:27.640 --> 0:08:30.000 but that will be problematic because the coalition with one 0:08:30.080 --> 0:08:33.240 nation means you are not going to come across as 0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:42.479 appealing to urban Australians, urban diverse Australians, and that coalition 0:08:42.520 --> 0:08:44.720 will make it very hard for them to win enough 0:08:44.760 --> 0:08:46.960 seats in the big cities to actually get close to 0:08:46.960 --> 0:08:48.679 seventy five seats as a coalition. 0:08:48.960 --> 0:08:52.000 Yeah, because Australian elections, they're sort of they're fought and 0:08:52.120 --> 0:08:54.320 won in the middle here. So if one nation is 0:08:54.360 --> 0:08:57.720 pulling the Liberal and National parties to the right, where 0:08:57.760 --> 0:09:00.320 do those kind of center rite voters up. 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:03.400 That's why we're there is probably now a live conversation 0:09:03.440 --> 0:09:06.520 around what do those two independents do? Do they form 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:08.880 some sort of qui as a political movement? I mean, 0:09:08.920 --> 0:09:11.840 it already exists. Many of them were re elected, All 0:09:11.880 --> 0:09:16.200 but one were re elected. Whereas researchers are having a 0:09:16.200 --> 0:09:18.680 discussion as to whether we put senerta po cop in 0:09:18.800 --> 0:09:22.880 the list of leaders to rate popularity, which we probably 0:09:22.920 --> 0:09:27.400 will in the next next sample. So yeah, I probably 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:29.320 don't have the answer to what that looks like. But 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:34.240 it's hard to see those urban professional classes in Sydney, 0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:37.679 Melbourne and Brisbane and Perthin and Adelaide vote for a 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:39.240 coalition that has one nation in it. 0:09:39.480 --> 0:09:41.760 I wanted to ask what all of this means for labor, 0:09:41.760 --> 0:09:44.160 because on the one hand, a low polling for the 0:09:44.200 --> 0:09:47.760 coalition is obviously good for labor, But on the other 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:50.319 do you think they are worried both about what this 0:09:50.400 --> 0:09:53.560 might mean for their primary vote in the future and also, 0:09:53.920 --> 0:09:56.280 you know, worried about a one nation resurgence. 0:09:56.600 --> 0:09:59.320 They wouldn't necessarily be worried about the one nation resurgence 0:09:59.320 --> 0:10:01.520 because they're Metra collige now it is made up of 0:10:01.559 --> 0:10:06.600 diverse Australians in our large cities, young professionals in our 0:10:06.679 --> 0:10:09.760 lard cities they've called the market when it comes to 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:13.160 provincial city electrics, which are also probably many versions of 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:16.480 Sydney in Melbourne. So really they have to watch their 0:10:16.559 --> 0:10:20.840 left flank, which is the Greens. Then where times do 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:24.199 record very high numbers of Green support amongst Gen Z 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:28.600 that supersede and overwhelm the Labor vote amongst that generation. 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:32.120 Sometimes we don't, but sometimes we do. So that's a 0:10:32.160 --> 0:10:34.040 thing that I think Labor needs to be really careful with. 0:10:34.720 --> 0:10:36.680 Green's at the moment are struggling to get cut through 0:10:36.679 --> 0:10:38.920 and so on. But it wouldn't rule out that younger 0:10:38.920 --> 0:10:41.040 Australians just you know, wake up one morning and go, 0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:44.040 you know what, this major party that we're voting for, 0:10:44.240 --> 0:10:47.480 we probably won't do that. There's a caveat to that 0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:50.840 that if one nation at that time comes across as 0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:55.240 a serious threat electoral threat, progressive voters will park their 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:57.280 vote on the one party that think that can stop them. 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:01.680 So there is that risticity that I'm talking about where 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:05.120 you could see a situation where Labors vote just balloons 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:07.800 just so they can stop one nation. Because we saw 0:11:07.840 --> 0:11:09.480 a bit of that. There was a by election in 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:15.600 Wales recently in the UK where former labor voters voted 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:18.240 for the Welsh National Party, which is a social democratic 0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:22.400 party in that country, to stop reform. 0:11:22.520 --> 0:11:26.080 And you mentioned reform in the UK earlier. To what 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:27.800 extent do you think that this. 0:11:27.880 --> 0:11:31.360 Kind of realignment of the right in Australia mirrors what 0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:32.360 happened there. 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:35.680 It's very similar trends. So the one thing, the one 0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:39.160 thing that we can say looks very similar is one 0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:44.439 nation cannibalizing the Conservative vote, and that's exactly what's happened 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:48.480 in the UK with reform cannibalizing the Conservative vote. The 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:52.640 undercurrents driving that are very similar, despondency when it comes 0:11:52.679 --> 0:11:57.920 to party establishment, frustration that the world is unraveling. The 0:11:57.920 --> 0:12:00.200 one thing we know about the types of voters that 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:03.160 left the Liberal Party and now planning the vote one nation, 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:06.720 they're in their fifties and sixties. They've got massive mortgages 0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:10.280 and the occupations that generally they work with their hands 0:12:10.320 --> 0:12:13.520 or stand on their feet. So if you're sitting with 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:16.800 a massive mortgage in you're fifty five, and you've got 0:12:16.880 --> 0:12:19.880 probably ten years of prime working age left in, you 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:23.120 and you're on a massive mortgage, you're thinking to yourself, 0:12:24.200 --> 0:12:27.200 I'm not going to retire sixty five. That obviously creates 0:12:27.200 --> 0:12:31.439 a lot of despondency and frustration and anger, and these 0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:33.839 former liberal voters are clearly now protesting. 0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:38.040 And to what extent do you think that political parties 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:40.880 I suppose here were talking specifically about the Liberals and 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:44.520 the Nationals really have themselves to blame here for not 0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:48.760 offering people like that a better solution to the issues 0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:49.199 they face. 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:52.560 Absolutely. I mean they have been preoccupied with cultural wars 0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:55.440 now for a good decade. The last time the Liberal 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:58.840 party actually took a package of economic reform to the 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:03.600 public was on how It's gst well over two decades ago. 0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:06.560 It's been a long time since the liberal parties are 0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:10.680 actually spoken to their base about what their plan is 0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:14.960 to address their concerns about the economy and their concerns 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:18.640 that they're no longer as prosperous as their parents. You know, 0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:21.640 they've been talking about that zero Recently, they're going to 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:25.200 talk about immigration, but the elephant in the room is 0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:26.280 the economy. 0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:29.199 And labor faces the same challenge obviously. 0:13:28.880 --> 0:13:31.160 Yeah, from the left side, right. So if they do 0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:34.679 not address housing, and they do not address intergenerational inequality, 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:37.320 and they seem to be treading order. I will not 0:13:37.400 --> 0:13:39.760 rule out the Greens winning seats back off them in 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:41.800 twenty twenty eight in significant number. 0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:45.040 What Cause. Thank you for your time. 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:45.640 Thank you. 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:55.760 Also in the news, Jess Wilson is the new leader 0:13:55.800 --> 0:13:59.520 of the Victorian Liberal Party after Austin Brad Batton. Thatton 0:13:59.559 --> 0:14:01.280 was in the job for less than a year after 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:05.200 replacing John Pisuto when he lost a defamation case against Moirademing. 0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:08.760 Since then, Baton has struggled to unify the fractured party. 0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:12.760 Jess Wilson is a former advisor to Federal Treasurer Josh Bridenberg, 0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:15.400 a first term MP, and now the first woman to 0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:17.080 lead the party in the state's history. 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:18.760 She says her priorities are. 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:21.800 Getting the budget back on track, ending the crime crisis, 0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:27.200 healthcare and housing, and an international stabilization force will provide 0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:30.880 security in Gaza after the UN Security Council approved a 0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:34.360 US plan. The plan also outlines a possible path to 0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:38.360 a Palestinian state. AMAS has rejected the resolution and Israel 0:14:38.360 --> 0:14:41.320 opposes the plan for independent statehood for Palestinians. 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:44.760 I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven AM. Thanks for listening.