1 00:00:03,290 --> 00:00:07,160 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. I'm Sean Aylmer. It's pretty 2 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:10,010 Sean Aylmer: rare to record a drop in unemployment to a 13 3 00:00:10,010 --> 00:00:13,310 Sean Aylmer: year low and for nobody to celebrate. But with hundreds 4 00:00:13,310 --> 00:00:15,500 Sean Aylmer: of thousands of jobs expected to go over the next 5 00:00:15,500 --> 00:00:18,259 Sean Aylmer: couple of months due to lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne, 6 00:00:18,500 --> 00:00:21,169 Sean Aylmer: the unemployment rate won't stay where it is for long. 7 00:00:21,590 --> 00:00:25,100 Sean Aylmer: The economic impact is worsening every day, particularly as COVID 8 00:00:25,100 --> 00:00:29,450 Sean Aylmer: case numbers continue to grow, likely prolonging lockdowns and keeping 9 00:00:29,450 --> 00:00:32,810 Sean Aylmer: borders shut. I wanted to get another perspective on what 10 00:00:32,810 --> 00:00:35,600 Sean Aylmer: we're in for. Richard Yetsenga is the Chief Economist at 11 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:38,690 Sean Aylmer: ANZ and my guest this morning. Richard, welcome to Fear 12 00:00:38,690 --> 00:00:39,140 Sean Aylmer: and Greed. 13 00:00:39,500 --> 00:00:40,129 Richard Yetsenga: Thanks, Sean. 14 00:00:40,550 --> 00:00:42,560 Sean Aylmer: What do you make of the labour force data last week? 15 00:00:43,130 --> 00:00:45,590 Richard Yetsenga: Great labour force data. In fact, for the past year, 16 00:00:45,630 --> 00:00:49,430 Richard Yetsenga: the labour force numbers have, I think every month or 17 00:00:49,430 --> 00:00:53,000 Richard Yetsenga: maybe 11 out of 12 months have surprised the consensus 18 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:56,210 Richard Yetsenga: forecast on the strong side. This is the strongest labour 19 00:00:56,210 --> 00:01:01,310 Richard Yetsenga: market in look, certainly before the financial crisis since 2007, 20 00:01:01,310 --> 00:01:01,760 Richard Yetsenga: I think. 21 00:01:02,390 --> 00:01:03,860 Sean Aylmer: So were you celebrating last week? 22 00:01:04,580 --> 00:01:08,800 Richard Yetsenga: We're not celebrating because, of course, during movement restrictions and lockdowns, 23 00:01:08,810 --> 00:01:10,910 Richard Yetsenga: I don't really like the word lockdowns. It's just the 24 00:01:10,910 --> 00:01:13,429 Richard Yetsenga: end of the wedge really. During these periods of, I guess, 25 00:01:13,430 --> 00:01:17,270 Richard Yetsenga: more extreme movement restrictions, our time focus narrows right down. 26 00:01:17,270 --> 00:01:19,580 Richard Yetsenga: And last month was last month, wasn't it? We're more 27 00:01:19,580 --> 00:01:23,240 Richard Yetsenga: focused on now. And look, unfortunately, it does seem like 28 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:25,520 Richard Yetsenga: some people are going to lose their jobs. Maybe the 29 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,670 Richard Yetsenga: good news is should be a lot less than we 30 00:01:28,670 --> 00:01:32,270 Richard Yetsenga: saw last year, and that should then provide a reasonably 31 00:01:32,270 --> 00:01:34,910 Richard Yetsenga: strong base for the economy to transition out of this 32 00:01:34,910 --> 00:01:36,889 Richard Yetsenga: period of more extreme movement restrictions. 33 00:01:37,220 --> 00:01:40,250 Sean Aylmer: OK, so what's the prognosis for the next three, four 34 00:01:40,250 --> 00:01:41,810 Sean Aylmer: or five months, do you think, in terms of the 35 00:01:41,810 --> 00:01:42,440 Sean Aylmer: labour market? 36 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:44,510 Richard Yetsenga: So I think, look, the next month or two is 37 00:01:44,510 --> 00:01:47,540 Richard Yetsenga: probably weak. Sydney looks like it's got a bit of 38 00:01:47,540 --> 00:01:50,330 Richard Yetsenga: a way to go in terms of the movement restrictions 39 00:01:50,330 --> 00:01:52,400 Richard Yetsenga: that are currently in place. Even if we start to 40 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:55,790 Richard Yetsenga: see some easing, let's say next month or so, they're 41 00:01:55,790 --> 00:01:59,780 Richard Yetsenga: likely to be modest. There's questions now about Melbourne, unfortunately. 42 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:02,630 Richard Yetsenga: And while most of the rest of Australia has avoided 43 00:02:02,630 --> 00:02:05,660 Richard Yetsenga: the worst of Delta, Delta is proving itself to be 44 00:02:05,660 --> 00:02:06,680 Richard Yetsenga: a wily adversary, isn't it? 45 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:06,860 Sean Aylmer: It sure is. 46 00:02:07,220 --> 00:02:10,490 Richard Yetsenga: It's difficult to completely get rid of and stay free 47 00:02:10,490 --> 00:02:13,100 Richard Yetsenga: of it. So, look, we think the odds are you'll 48 00:02:13,100 --> 00:02:15,410 Richard Yetsenga: see some other movement restrictions around the rest of Australia 49 00:02:15,410 --> 00:02:18,260 Richard Yetsenga: over the period. So that means things are probably weaker 50 00:02:18,260 --> 00:02:21,019 Richard Yetsenga: in the near term. But we're already seeing actually that 51 00:02:21,050 --> 00:02:24,620 Richard Yetsenga: that weakness is more controlled than last year. It's less 52 00:02:24,620 --> 00:02:27,950 Richard Yetsenga: severe than last year. There's less panic. And a big 53 00:02:27,950 --> 00:02:30,230 Richard Yetsenga: part of that is the policy response is quite good. 54 00:02:30,230 --> 00:02:34,070 Richard Yetsenga: I think it's tending to keep viable firms afloat during 55 00:02:34,070 --> 00:02:38,480 Richard Yetsenga: what are temporary restrictions and also keep employees attached to 56 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,970 Richard Yetsenga: their jobs and they're two things that really form the 57 00:02:40,970 --> 00:02:44,330 Richard Yetsenga: foundation of the economy coming back with a reasonable degree 58 00:02:44,330 --> 00:02:45,440 Richard Yetsenga: of vigour on the other side. 59 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:49,430 Sean Aylmer: So JobKeeper last year helped people stay in work or 60 00:02:49,430 --> 00:02:52,310 Sean Aylmer: at least stay employed. Sorry. We don't have the equivalent 61 00:02:52,310 --> 00:02:54,710 Sean Aylmer: this time around. Does that mean that there will be 62 00:02:54,710 --> 00:02:57,890 Sean Aylmer: big job losses, even if they're only temporary in the 63 00:02:57,889 --> 00:02:59,990 Sean Aylmer: next sort of four, six, eight weeks, do you think? 64 00:03:00,590 --> 00:03:02,960 Richard Yetsenga: Look, they will be meaningful, Sean. But remember, last year 65 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:05,050 Richard Yetsenga: also there was the fear of the great unknown. 66 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:05,389 Sean Aylmer: Yep. 67 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,390 Richard Yetsenga: Holy smoke it's COVID. What is it? Never seen a 68 00:03:08,389 --> 00:03:11,420 Richard Yetsenga: pandemic unless you're a scientist. Never really understood what it 69 00:03:11,419 --> 00:03:14,300 Richard Yetsenga: was like. I have a copy of Peter Doherty's book 70 00:03:14,300 --> 00:03:17,389 Richard Yetsenga: on pandemics now. It's tough going, I've got to say. 71 00:03:18,139 --> 00:03:20,780 Richard Yetsenga: Last year, we lost nearly in Australia, nearly five hundred 72 00:03:20,780 --> 00:03:23,060 Richard Yetsenga: thousand jobs. This year, we think less than half of that. 73 00:03:23,060 --> 00:03:26,630 Richard Yetsenga: But that's still potentially two hundred thousand people that will 74 00:03:26,630 --> 00:03:29,660 Richard Yetsenga: need to find another employer as the economy starts to 75 00:03:29,660 --> 00:03:31,700 Richard Yetsenga: open up maybe towards the end of this year and 76 00:03:31,700 --> 00:03:34,960 Richard Yetsenga: into 2022. And is it nearly 2022 already? Wow. 77 00:03:36,140 --> 00:03:38,450 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. Pretty incredible, isn't it? How do you think, I mean, it 78 00:03:38,450 --> 00:03:41,600 Sean Aylmer: now seems to hinge on hitting vaccination targets of 70 79 00:03:41,810 --> 00:03:44,300 Sean Aylmer: and 80 per cent, and there's a huge political debate 80 00:03:44,300 --> 00:03:47,330 Sean Aylmer: around that. Do you think from an economic sense it 81 00:03:47,330 --> 00:03:50,360 Sean Aylmer: will bounce like it did last year or is the 82 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:52,670 Sean Aylmer: fact that it's not like we're going to suddenly see 83 00:03:52,670 --> 00:03:55,190 Sean Aylmer: zero COVID cases now, I think everyone accepts that we're 84 00:03:55,190 --> 00:03:57,500 Sean Aylmer: going to be seeing them in the dozens or hundreds 85 00:03:57,740 --> 00:04:00,710 Sean Aylmer: as the economy reopens, what sort of impact will that have? 86 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:05,690 Richard Yetsenga: So I think last year the international experience showed actually 87 00:04:06,170 --> 00:04:09,290 Richard Yetsenga: you can have what looks like an awful COVID situation 88 00:04:09,290 --> 00:04:13,490 Richard Yetsenga: and the economy will actually do OK. India, the US, the 89 00:04:13,490 --> 00:04:19,100 Richard Yetsenga: UK all had very, very challenging times, enormous human cost. 90 00:04:19,610 --> 00:04:22,880 Richard Yetsenga: But their economies came back from the most extreme global 91 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:26,010 Richard Yetsenga: shutdowns that we saw through March and April last year. 92 00:04:26,029 --> 00:04:28,070 Richard Yetsenga: So we probably need to think about them a little 93 00:04:28,070 --> 00:04:31,070 Richard Yetsenga: bit separately. I think one thing that's not clear is 94 00:04:31,700 --> 00:04:37,310 Richard Yetsenga: how Australia will cope psychologically, economically, from a restrictions perspective 95 00:04:37,310 --> 00:04:40,460 Richard Yetsenga: with the number of cases. The Doherty Institute yesterday said, 96 00:04:41,310 --> 00:04:42,950 Richard Yetsenga: now bear in mind, when I give you this number, Sean, 97 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:47,720 Richard Yetsenga: Australia's had I think about 44,000 COVID cases altogether. I think. 98 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:50,480 Richard Yetsenga: The Doherty Institute on their modelling is saying if we 99 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:53,210 Richard Yetsenga: follow the path they're proposing, which is obviously the basis 100 00:04:53,210 --> 00:04:57,350 Richard Yetsenga: of the federal government's program, we should expect about 385,000 101 00:04:58,100 --> 00:04:59,420 Richard Yetsenga: symptomatic infections. 102 00:04:59,750 --> 00:05:01,580 Sean Aylmer: Wow. So seven times what we've had. 103 00:05:01,970 --> 00:05:04,490 Richard Yetsenga: It's a big number. Whether it's, you and I know, 104 00:05:04,490 --> 00:05:08,360 Richard Yetsenga: whether it's 385,000 or 400,000 or 300,000, it's a really 105 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:11,570 Richard Yetsenga: big number. And I think what the policy response to 106 00:05:11,570 --> 00:05:13,910 Richard Yetsenga: that is, what the psychological response to that is, is 107 00:05:13,910 --> 00:05:16,940 Richard Yetsenga: a really big question. I think also that means that 108 00:05:16,940 --> 00:05:19,609 Richard Yetsenga: because at least in New South Wales, we're transitioning to 109 00:05:19,610 --> 00:05:23,150 Richard Yetsenga: living with COVID, the sort of snapbacks we had over 110 00:05:23,150 --> 00:05:26,420 Richard Yetsenga: the past 12 months where we had movement restrictions and 111 00:05:26,420 --> 00:05:29,989 Richard Yetsenga: then went to largely no restrictions. That doesn't seem to 112 00:05:29,990 --> 00:05:31,310 Richard Yetsenga: me to be the right way to think about it. 113 00:05:31,310 --> 00:05:34,190 Richard Yetsenga: So I'm discouraging people from using the term snapbacks. Certainly, 114 00:05:34,190 --> 00:05:37,220 Richard Yetsenga: we'll have recoveries and the fundamentals of the economy are 115 00:05:37,220 --> 00:05:39,950 Richard Yetsenga: pretty strong. But I think they're likely to be less 116 00:05:39,950 --> 00:05:43,190 Richard Yetsenga: aggressive bounces than we saw through most of the lockdowns 117 00:05:43,190 --> 00:05:44,089 Richard Yetsenga: over the last 12 months. 118 00:05:44,570 --> 00:05:46,490 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Richard. We'll be back in a minute. 119 00:05:51,470 --> 00:05:55,909 Sean Aylmer: My guest this morning is Richard Yetsenga, Chief Economist at ANZ. OK, 120 00:05:55,910 --> 00:05:58,400 Sean Aylmer: so what's your forecast for growth this quarter, next quarter 121 00:05:58,400 --> 00:05:59,750 Sean Aylmer: and then into 2022? 122 00:06:00,350 --> 00:06:03,289 Richard Yetsenga: Good. All good questions. So down this quarter, look, we 123 00:06:03,290 --> 00:06:06,200 Richard Yetsenga: think about three per cent. I think we got 3.3 in 124 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:09,380 Richard Yetsenga: our numbers. Then we get a recovery next quarter, but 125 00:06:09,380 --> 00:06:12,170 Richard Yetsenga: not all the way back. So maybe 2.4 per cent of 126 00:06:12,170 --> 00:06:16,250 Richard Yetsenga: that comes back. And hopefully, that is transitioning us into 127 00:06:16,250 --> 00:06:19,580 Richard Yetsenga: the living with COVID phase. And so hopefully over the 128 00:06:19,580 --> 00:06:22,250 Richard Yetsenga: next year or two, COVID becomes a less extreme influence 129 00:06:22,250 --> 00:06:24,890 Richard Yetsenga: on the economy. I think the biggest challenge for growth 130 00:06:24,890 --> 00:06:28,910 Richard Yetsenga: next year and the year after probably is the international borders. 131 00:06:28,910 --> 00:06:32,750 Richard Yetsenga: Without the international borders open, potential growth is probably only 132 00:06:33,020 --> 00:06:36,650 Richard Yetsenga: one per cent maybe, Sean. And the labour markets telling us 133 00:06:36,650 --> 00:06:39,620 Richard Yetsenga: we've used a lot of spare capacity up. So the 134 00:06:39,620 --> 00:06:42,110 Richard Yetsenga: economy's ability to grow quickly is going to be hampered 135 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:44,420 Richard Yetsenga: if we can't work out a way that people are 136 00:06:44,420 --> 00:06:46,970 Richard Yetsenga: happy with to get the international borders open. 137 00:06:47,510 --> 00:06:50,810 Sean Aylmer: What's all that mean for inflation and then ultimately interest rates? 138 00:06:51,710 --> 00:06:53,260 Richard Yetsenga: Oh, how deep is the ocean, Sean? The unfortunate... 139 00:06:54,620 --> 00:06:55,560 Sean Aylmer: Very, very deep, Richard. Very deep. 140 00:06:56,029 --> 00:06:58,580 Richard Yetsenga: Well, if you're standing on the shore, it's pretty shallow. 141 00:06:58,580 --> 00:07:00,859 Richard Yetsenga: And I think the problem with inflation is it's the 142 00:07:00,860 --> 00:07:04,670 Richard Yetsenga: macro variable that determines so much. It's the macro variable 143 00:07:04,670 --> 00:07:07,280 Richard Yetsenga: that economists have a terrible track record of forecasting. I 144 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:10,220 Richard Yetsenga: think we should acknowledge that. Look, I think we've got 145 00:07:10,430 --> 00:07:13,619 Richard Yetsenga: all the preconditions for inflation we could basically hope for. 146 00:07:13,620 --> 00:07:17,030 Richard Yetsenga: A very strong monetary response coming out of the crisis 147 00:07:17,030 --> 00:07:20,240 Richard Yetsenga: globally with actually some reasonable economic vigour, even if they've 148 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:23,360 Richard Yetsenga: been a few disappointments the last quarter or so. We've 149 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:25,970 Richard Yetsenga: got the global centre of the price of credit, the 150 00:07:25,970 --> 00:07:30,860 Richard Yetsenga: US Federal Reserve with the most permissive inflation stance probably 151 00:07:30,860 --> 00:07:35,060 Richard Yetsenga: since the 1970s. We've got supply chain bottlenecks. We've got 152 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:39,350 Richard Yetsenga: climate change contributing to commodity price strength. There's a lot 153 00:07:39,350 --> 00:07:41,300 Richard Yetsenga: of things on the list there which says to me, 154 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:44,360 Richard Yetsenga: we're going to have inflation once we get through this 155 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:47,330 Richard Yetsenga: kind of basic effects problem with last year's zoom, we're 156 00:07:47,330 --> 00:07:49,580 Richard Yetsenga: going to have some higher inflation over the next couple 157 00:07:49,580 --> 00:07:51,260 Richard Yetsenga: of years. I think we should welcome that. 158 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:55,820 Sean Aylmer: Okay. Does that mean that interest rates may rise before 2024, 159 00:07:55,820 --> 00:07:57,680 Sean Aylmer: which is when the Reserve Bank said it expects to 160 00:07:57,680 --> 00:07:58,970 Sean Aylmer: lift the official cash rate? 161 00:07:59,690 --> 00:08:02,990 Richard Yetsenga: Possibly, although the chance for that with these latest movement 162 00:08:02,990 --> 00:08:06,770 Richard Yetsenga: restrictions obviously has fallen. We had expected the bank to 163 00:08:06,770 --> 00:08:08,930 Richard Yetsenga: be going in the second half of 2023. We've now 164 00:08:08,930 --> 00:08:13,640 Richard Yetsenga: pushed that back to 2024, just because effectively the recovery 165 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,880 Richard Yetsenga: has been delayed. The full recovery in the Australian economy 166 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:20,090 Richard Yetsenga: has been delayed. So I'm less worried about the bank 167 00:08:20,090 --> 00:08:22,970 Richard Yetsenga: having to go earlier than 2024. I think even if 168 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:26,390 Richard Yetsenga: we've had a couple of quarters of inflation firmly in 169 00:08:26,390 --> 00:08:28,580 Richard Yetsenga: the target band and the banks in a position to 170 00:08:28,580 --> 00:08:32,300 Richard Yetsenga: go sometime in 2024. That would still obviously be a 171 00:08:32,300 --> 00:08:34,610 Richard Yetsenga: welcome return to something approaching normalcy. 172 00:08:35,030 --> 00:08:38,000 Sean Aylmer: Yeah, house prices. I can't let you go without actually 173 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:42,200 Sean Aylmer: asking about house prices. They've certainly done well across the nation, 174 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:45,230 Sean Aylmer: or across the capital cities and in regional Australia over the 175 00:08:45,230 --> 00:08:48,500 Sean Aylmer: last 18 months or so. Where do you think they're going, 176 00:08:48,500 --> 00:08:51,860 Sean Aylmer: particularly in the big cities? You know, Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Perth. 177 00:08:52,490 --> 00:08:55,490 Richard Yetsenga: Demand still seems much stronger than supply at current price 178 00:08:55,490 --> 00:08:59,540 Richard Yetsenga: levels to be honest, Sean. Even in Sydney with recent movement restrictions, 179 00:08:59,540 --> 00:09:02,090 Richard Yetsenga: it seems like desirable properties are flying off the shelves. 180 00:09:02,090 --> 00:09:05,810 Richard Yetsenga: So further price gains that will put this year at 181 00:09:05,809 --> 00:09:08,900 Richard Yetsenga: a 20 per cent plus price gain year, and then we 182 00:09:08,900 --> 00:09:11,230 Richard Yetsenga: don't expect any sort of crash or anything like that 183 00:09:11,250 --> 00:09:15,020 Richard Yetsenga: next year. So prices still increase next year, but hopefully 184 00:09:15,020 --> 00:09:17,930 Richard Yetsenga: by much less. I think more broadly, though, one of 185 00:09:17,929 --> 00:09:22,070 Richard Yetsenga: Australia's big strategic economic challenges is how do we grow 186 00:09:22,070 --> 00:09:25,250 Richard Yetsenga: the economy and share prosperity without house prices having to 187 00:09:25,250 --> 00:09:28,160 Richard Yetsenga: go up much, much faster than income? It just strikes 188 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,699 Richard Yetsenga: me the equation under which we're currently operating is going 189 00:09:31,700 --> 00:09:33,350 Richard Yetsenga: to run into some limits at some point. 190 00:09:33,770 --> 00:09:34,970 Sean Aylmer: How do we do that, Richard? 191 00:09:35,900 --> 00:09:36,980 Richard Yetsenga: I'm asking you, Sean. 192 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,630 Sean Aylmer: I mean, the wealth effect is such an important part 193 00:09:41,630 --> 00:09:45,470 Sean Aylmer: of our being in Australia, and particularly if you live 194 00:09:45,470 --> 00:09:48,199 Sean Aylmer: in a capital city because you if you are lucky 195 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:50,750 Sean Aylmer: enough to own a home, it has appreciated. If you've 196 00:09:50,750 --> 00:09:53,030 Sean Aylmer: owned it for long enough, it does make you feel 197 00:09:53,030 --> 00:09:56,720 Sean Aylmer: better about spending. But if we actually had a house 198 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,690 Sean Aylmer: price inflation of three or four per cent, would that 199 00:09:59,690 --> 00:10:01,070 Sean Aylmer: actually hurt the economy, do you think? 200 00:10:01,790 --> 00:10:04,370 Richard Yetsenga: Our inflation forecast would be different if we had house 201 00:10:04,370 --> 00:10:06,589 Richard Yetsenga: price inflation at three or four per cent this year. 202 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:07,219 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 203 00:10:07,610 --> 00:10:09,829 Richard Yetsenga: So I don't think it hurts the economy, but under 204 00:10:09,830 --> 00:10:13,160 Richard Yetsenga: the current conjunction, it would make it difficult to get 205 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:17,690 Richard Yetsenga: to inflation well above 2%, comfortably above 2%. I think the, 206 00:10:18,230 --> 00:10:20,880 Richard Yetsenga: I'm posing the question as a strategic challenge, I think. 207 00:10:21,340 --> 00:10:21,780 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 208 00:10:22,130 --> 00:10:24,830 Richard Yetsenga: And it's a surrogate off of the question we should 209 00:10:24,830 --> 00:10:28,730 Richard Yetsenga: have been asking more intently before, which is consumer credit 210 00:10:28,730 --> 00:10:31,550 Richard Yetsenga: growth can't keep growing at double the rate of income. 211 00:10:31,620 --> 00:10:31,970 Sean Aylmer: Yeah. 212 00:10:32,090 --> 00:10:35,210 Richard Yetsenga: There's going to be a reckoning. And before COVID, there 213 00:10:35,210 --> 00:10:37,610 Richard Yetsenga: was a reckoning and regulators started to say, you know, 214 00:10:37,610 --> 00:10:41,000 Richard Yetsenga: debt to income at 200 per cent, that's kind of far enough. 215 00:10:41,540 --> 00:10:44,510 Richard Yetsenga: That's been removed as a really big source of growth 216 00:10:44,510 --> 00:10:47,330 Richard Yetsenga: in the economy. The surrogate of that is, well house 217 00:10:47,330 --> 00:10:50,469 Richard Yetsenga: prices are doing something similar. Again, I think whether we 218 00:10:50,530 --> 00:10:52,750 Richard Yetsenga: can choose the timing is an open question, but we're 219 00:10:52,750 --> 00:10:54,490 Richard Yetsenga: going to have to find other sources of growth at 220 00:10:54,490 --> 00:10:55,030 Richard Yetsenga: some point. 221 00:10:55,450 --> 00:10:56,589 Sean Aylmer: Richard, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 222 00:10:57,730 --> 00:10:58,300 Richard Yetsenga: Thanks, Sean. 223 00:10:58,570 --> 00:11:01,840 Richard Yetsenga: That was Richard Yetsenga, Chief Economist at ANZ. This is 224 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,179 Richard Yetsenga: a Fear and Greed Daily Interview. Join me every morning 225 00:11:04,179 --> 00:11:06,430 Richard Yetsenga: for the full Fear and Greed podcast with all the 226 00:11:06,429 --> 00:11:09,430 Richard Yetsenga: business news you need to know. I'm Sean Aylmer. Enjoy 227 00:11:09,429 --> 00:11:09,850 Richard Yetsenga: your day.