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Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the Front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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Speaker 1: It's Friday, January two, twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 2: A devilishly difficult.

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Speaker 1: New Year job awaits the Israeli Intelligence agency more sad

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Speaker 1: how to deal with a fractured, degraded, but still seriously

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Speaker 1: dangerous guerrilla movement in Yemen, just south of Saudi Arabia.

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Speaker 1: It's the Hoofies, a deeply antisemitic terror movement with nothing

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Speaker 1: to lose and the capacity to catastrophically disrupt international trade

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Speaker 1: whenever they like. Just like Hesbella and her Maas, the

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Speaker 1: Hoofies were backed by Iran and have suffered serious setbacks

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Speaker 1: at the hands of the Israeli military. But they're not

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Speaker 1: out of play. So how dangerous are the Hoofies now?

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Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is here. Cameron Stewart is The Australian's chief

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Speaker 1: international correspondent and this year one of our highest rating

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Speaker 1: episodes of the Front has been a conversation Cameron and

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Speaker 1: I had about the Hoofies in Yemen. Cam it felt

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Speaker 1: at the time like a bit of a niche subject

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Speaker 1: that we kind of needed to explain. I needed to

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Speaker 1: understand it better and you stepped up to talk me

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Speaker 1: through it. It's amazing to me how much it resonated

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Speaker 1: around the world. That episode has had huge traffic on

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Speaker 1: Apple podcasts, on Spotify, and on YouTube. It's clearly a

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Speaker 1: conflict or a situation in Yemen that the world wants

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Speaker 1: to understand. But let's just talk a little bit about

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Speaker 1: who the Hoofies are. Their motto is God is Great,

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Speaker 1: Death to America, death to Israel, curse on the Jews,

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Speaker 1: victory to Islam. It's a pretty unequivocal slogan.

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Speaker 2: Isn't it.

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Speaker 3: Yes, they're not big on subdity, but I think people

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Speaker 3: are fascinated, Claire, because there was so much focus on Gaza,

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Speaker 3: where so much of the fighting was, but also on

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Speaker 3: Lebanon with Hesbala, and a lot of interest in Iran

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Speaker 3: and the attacks on the nuclear facilities. But the Hooths

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Speaker 3: were there as a big part of this broader Middle

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Speaker 3: Eastern conflict since October seven. And they're a very unusual

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Speaker 3: group because firstly, they can't be subjugated in a way

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Speaker 3: that Hesbolla was and how Mas has been, and even

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Speaker 3: Iran to a degree has been. The Hooths were born

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Speaker 3: as a sort of guerrilla style army if you like,

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Speaker 3: they've got a site background. The best way to see

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Speaker 3: the conflict in Yemen is really Shite versus Sunny, a

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Speaker 3: classic Muslim divide, and the Hooths are the Shahite side

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Speaker 3: of that. There's a slight minority in the country, but

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Speaker 3: they're about forty percent. This is the Shahites. And so

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Speaker 3: they're a rebel group who was very upset and angry

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Speaker 3: and had nutrising against the Sunni controlled government, which is

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Speaker 3: backed by Saudi Arabia. So the Iranians back the Houthis

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Speaker 3: because they're Shite, and the Swordies back the standing government.

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Speaker 3: And so really, in a way, the conflict in Yem

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Speaker 3: was a proxy conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and

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Speaker 3: the Huthis were backed by Iran and also by Lebanon.

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Speaker 3: And they're an interesting group because they're a very decentralized

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Speaker 3: guerrilla style army. It's fighters, its weaponry, and its leaders

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Speaker 3: move constantly. They're very battle hardened. They've fought the civil

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Speaker 3: war for about twenty years. I mean, it's been a

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Speaker 3: disaster for the yemin Y people, Claire, I mean, very

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Speaker 3: very poor standard of living. It's a pretty brutal place

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Speaker 3: to live. But the Houthis are battle hardened. As I said,

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Speaker 3: They've fought on and off for two decades. They win

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Speaker 3: local support by portraying themselves as the hero of a

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Speaker 3: holy war, fending off the great Satans of the US,

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Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia and Israel. They're virulently anti Semitic, and they

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Speaker 3: justify their current campaign and against Israel as a show

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Speaker 3: of solidarity for Palestinians in Gaza.

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Speaker 1: They won a lot of popularity in the Muslim world.

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Speaker 1: I think cam by supporting Her Mask, which of course

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Speaker 1: is a Sunni organization, so coming from the different side

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Speaker 1: of Islam. It's a bit like the divide I suppose

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Speaker 1: between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland. But their way

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Speaker 1: of supporting Her Mask was a few different methods. One

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Speaker 1: was firing on Israel and the other was blocking shipping

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Speaker 1: in the Red Sea. Why was that so important and

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Speaker 1: why did it have such an outsize impact on the world.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it really sees the world's attention just because the

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Speaker 3: Red Sea is a massive source of maritime traffic. It's

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Speaker 3: a critical link for world trade, and the.

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Speaker 2: Hoothies are there.

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Speaker 3: They control the northwestern part of Yemen, and that is

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Speaker 3: right on the border of the Red Sea, so very

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Speaker 3: easy for the hooth Is to start attacking shipping. And

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Speaker 3: what they did was they attacked israel shiping that had

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Speaker 3: connections to Israel, but they even went broader than that

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Speaker 3: at the height and were attacking almost random shipping coming through.

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Speaker 3: And of course these shipping companies cleared their private shipping companies,

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Speaker 3: a lot of them. They've got to make profits, and

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Speaker 3: they couldn't get insurance on the ships that it was dangerous,

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Speaker 3: so they had to go the long way around Africa.

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Speaker 3: I mean, this added a huge amounts of cost onto

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Speaker 3: international trade. It affected world markets, and the Hoofy campaign

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Speaker 3: against the shipping actually killed nine people and four ships.

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Speaker 3: It totally upended shipping through to the Red Sea and

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Speaker 3: about one trillion dollars of goods passes through that each year,

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Speaker 3: so that's why it made so many headlines and it

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Speaker 3: was such a headache for the Israelis, but also for

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Speaker 3: the Americans of course as well. Donald Trump was furious

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Speaker 3: with the Hoothis, and in fact the US delivered a

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Speaker 3: series of major attacks on the Hoothies earlier this year

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Speaker 3: to try and stop them from actually targeting the Red Sea.

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Speaker 1: In May this year, Israel kind of made their first

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Speaker 1: really concerted attack on the Hoofies in this conflict, a

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Speaker 1: bunch of air strikes, and that was in response to

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Speaker 1: some very successful Hoofy attacks on Israel. They fired ballistic

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Speaker 1: missiles on Israel's main airport, Benngurian Airport and Tel Aviv.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk first about that attack cam back in May.

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Speaker 1: That was just after a ceasefire had ended in Gaza,

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Speaker 1: wasn't it.

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Speaker 3: That's right, And I think the Israelis were shocked, to

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Speaker 3: be honest, I mean, I mean, Yeman's a long way away,

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Speaker 3: and they were shocked that the Hoothies could fire such

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Speaker 3: long range weaponry and actually hit Israel. And in fact,

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Speaker 3: from that point Israel took the defense against the hoos

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Speaker 3: It's defense far more seriously, and most of the Hoothy

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Speaker 3: attacks with these missiles were actually shot down long before

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Speaker 3: they got to Israeli territory. But it really pricked the

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Speaker 3: attention of the Israelis, who are of course extremely distracted

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Speaker 3: by other conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Also with the Hooths,

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Speaker 3: it's a bit of a David and Goliath think they're

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Speaker 3: not a massive force, they're not a massive army, and

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Speaker 3: so to be shooting long range missiles at Israel when

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Speaker 3: they know how technically sophisticated Israeli was a very brazen move.

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Speaker 3: I think it really did surprise people, and the Israelis

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Speaker 3: came fairly hard back of the Houthis. But we had

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Speaker 3: a remarkable thing happened in May Claire. And that's when

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump, after having bombed the Hoothys fairly heavily, abruptly

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Speaker 3: stopped and made a deal. And the deal was that

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Speaker 3: the US would stop the attack on the Hooths if

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Speaker 3: they stopped their attacks on US shipping through the Red Sea.

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Speaker 3: But interestingly, Trump did not include Israeli in that, and

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Speaker 3: a lot of people were puzzled by that. He didn't

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Speaker 3: say you've got to stop your attacks on Israeli shipping.

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Speaker 3: He actually left Israel to deal with the Houthis separately.

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Speaker 3: But that actually was one part, and the Houthis agreed

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Speaker 3: to that. And so the US attacks on the Hoof

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Speaker 3: he stopped, and the Hothier attacks on your shipping in

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Speaker 3: the Red Sea stopped.

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Speaker 1: At the same time, it didn't stop the Israelis Throughout

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Speaker 1: June and July, the Israeli Navy was attacking many ports

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Speaker 1: and attacking the Hoofies. And then in August came the

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Speaker 1: attack that prompted the episode that we talked about cam.

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Speaker 1: That was where the Israeli Air Force fired on a

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Speaker 1: group of the most senior Hoofie leaders when they were

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Speaker 1: gathering in the capital Sinar to watch a televised speech

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Speaker 1: by their leader. Just talk me through the significance of

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Speaker 1: that attack and the planning of it and why it

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Speaker 1: was such a big deal.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it was a very clever attack by Israel. They

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Speaker 3: did a couple of fake intelligence flags where they made

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Speaker 3: the Hoofies believe that the Israelis didn't have a great

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Speaker 3: handle on the intelligence on their movements, and of course

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Speaker 3: Israel was effectively filling them. And it was an amazing strike.

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Speaker 3: They all gathered in the same building, which is really

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Speaker 3: one of what you don't do in that situation, and

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Speaker 3: it killed the Prime Minister and a lot of the

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Speaker 3: most senior officials. It was in late August, and the

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Speaker 3: Hoothies for a while denied it or nowhere you didn't

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Speaker 3: you killed nobody. Then that finally came out that they

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Speaker 3: did and I think that made a big impact.

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Speaker 2: It really shocked the Hoothi leadership.

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Speaker 3: They claimed, oh, we're going to get the Great Sate

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Speaker 3: and we're going to fire back at Israel.

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Speaker 2: And they did fire a little bit.

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Speaker 3: But I think, I really think that had a huge

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Speaker 3: impact on the Hoofes in just making them more gunshy

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Speaker 3: because they realized that even from that distance, Israel good

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Speaker 3: a detect where they were and b actually hit them.

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Speaker 1: It capped a pretty incredible year for the Israeli defense forces.

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Speaker 1: They had, with their collaboration of Mossad very successfully dismantled

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Speaker 1: Hesbala in Lebanon, with the attacks on the pages and

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Speaker 1: then the walkie talkies, they had an incredibly successful attack

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Speaker 1: on Iran that they called Operation Rising Line, ultimately supported

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Speaker 1: by the United States, and of course they had significant

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Speaker 1: successes in Gaza itself. How did the attack on the

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Speaker 1: Hoofies kind of play into what seems to have been

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Speaker 1: a successful, very successful year for Israel.

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Speaker 3: I mean, that was in a way that cherry on

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Speaker 3: top for Israel was that very successful attack against the

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Speaker 3: hooth Is. And yet in a way, I mean, Israel

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Speaker 3: sort of subjugated Iran to a large degree, with its

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Speaker 3: attacks on it synaclear facilities. It's certainly subjugated Hesbala, it's

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Speaker 3: certainly decimated Hamas in Gaza, but it still hasn't really

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Speaker 3: despite that attack on the leadership of the hooth Is,

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Speaker 3: it hasn't destroyed the hooth Is as organization. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they are to centralize their gorillas. They're in the hills,

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Speaker 3: They're a long way from Israel. It's much harder for

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Speaker 3: Israel to mount a major campaign. So look, houth is

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Speaker 3: a very much alive still as a military and political force. Yes,

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Speaker 3: they're a bit more Gunshi after that attack by Israel,

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Speaker 3: but they are still there. They still exist. And one

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Speaker 3: of the great questions now, Claire, is that now the

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Speaker 3: hooth Is have lost their shee, it's much harder for

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Speaker 3: Iran to get supplies to the hooth Is. Now Hesbella

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Speaker 3: has been decimated. It's going to be much harder to

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Speaker 3: get money and weapons from Lebanon and Iran to the Hoothis.

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Speaker 3: So I think there's a long term question here of

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Speaker 3: what sort of effect that eventually does have on the

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Speaker 3: Hoothy's ability to keep fighting their civil workers. The civil

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Speaker 3: war is still sort of a laten civil war that

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Speaker 3: is still happening, and so what will be the long

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Speaker 3: term prognosis of this That's something we're going to have

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Speaker 3: to wait and see.

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Speaker 1: Coming up. Mossard patiently took down Hezbala over decades, but

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Speaker 1: the Hoofies are different. So what's the strategy that's after

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Speaker 1: the break? Yemen is such a sad story, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: Cam It's yet another Middle Eastern country where people have

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Speaker 1: been cursed by corruption and civil war over the years.

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Speaker 1: It's just on the southern tip of Saudi Arabia. Its

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Speaker 1: neighbors are Imman and then of course Africa. It's between

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Speaker 1: the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. But what's

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Speaker 1: the future for Yemen now that the Hoofees are in

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Speaker 1: this very different situation.

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Speaker 3: I mean, there's a possibility that the civil war could

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Speaker 3: start again in earnest. It would depend how much effort

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Speaker 3: the US and Sordi Arabia want to do in actually

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Speaker 3: backing the Sunni side of the conflict, and it's unclear

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Speaker 3: actually how much.

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Speaker 2: They want to do that.

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Speaker 3: If they see that the hoof Is are vulnerable, they

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Speaker 3: may push and go for another wave to try and

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Speaker 3: attack them and take more ground. But look, It really

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Speaker 3: does seem more like a stalemate at the moment, Claire.

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Speaker 3: And as you say, the real victims here are the

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Speaker 3: people of Yemen in this very poor country. There's no

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Speaker 3: obvious roadmap to a peace solution here, and I think

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Speaker 3: as far as the West goes, they're probably more inclined

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Speaker 3: to just want to keep the Hoothys under some sort

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Speaker 3: of control and not have them attack a shipping in

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Speaker 3: the Red Sea and b Israel.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, do you think it will have an effect on

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Speaker 1: trade routes more generally? Can like will those changes that

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Speaker 1: shipping companies had to make to take different, much longer routes,

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Speaker 1: will they now be more entrenched or do you think

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Speaker 1: it'll just go back to normal.

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Speaker 2: I think it'll go.

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Speaker 3: Back to normal because a commerce is commerce. People want

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Speaker 3: to have low costs, and if they can get through

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Speaker 3: passages like the Red Sea, they'll go for it. And

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Speaker 3: that's what's happening now. But I mean, the hooth has

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Speaker 3: had this in their back pocket, don't they. They've shown

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Speaker 3: that they can do it before, they've shown they can

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Speaker 3: do it again at short notice. And that's something that

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Speaker 3: the Americans, the Israelis, and frankly the world trading community

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Speaker 3: will be very anxious to not let them do again.

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Speaker 3: But I think the Hooths have the potential to do

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Speaker 3: it again, and I think if something flares up. In fact,

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Speaker 3: a very good point here is that if the ceasefire

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Speaker 3: in Gaza collapses, I think you will see the hooth

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Speaker 3: Is firing missiles again at Israel, and possibly even firing

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Speaker 3: missiles again at ships in the Red Sea, because what

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Speaker 3: they've said is that they'll cease their hostilities in respect

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Speaker 3: of the ceasefire, but only so long as it lasts.

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Speaker 2: If the ceasefire collapses, which of course it could, it's.

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Speaker 3: Still quite fragile, then you might well see the hoof

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Speaker 3: is firing yet again, and the whole thing will flare

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Speaker 3: up yet again.

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Speaker 1: You'd assume that now it's on Mossad to try to

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Speaker 1: disrupt them in the kind of long grind of intelligence

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Speaker 1: that they used against Hesbala. Twenty years of planning went

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Speaker 1: into those pager and walkie talkie attacks that Mossad pulled off.

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Speaker 1: Would you think that's going to be more difficult with

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Speaker 1: the hoof Is, given how spread out they are and

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Speaker 1: how kind of decentralized.

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Speaker 3: Y's definitely more difficult but certainly not insurmountable as we

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Speaker 3: saw with that attack in late August, and the hooth

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Speaker 3: Is to be very aware of that.

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Speaker 2: But I think you're right.

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Speaker 3: I think the Israelis realize they can't exactly eradicate the

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Speaker 3: hooth Is in the way they've almost done with Hesbala

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Speaker 3: and Amas.

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Speaker 2: There's going to be a long term problem for them.

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Speaker 3: And I think moss will be very much on the

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Speaker 3: ball and will be lifted in their priority rankings on

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Speaker 3: the whiteboards in the Mossad headquarters.

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Speaker 1: I'd love to see those. Cameron Stewart is the Australian's

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Speaker 1: Chief International correspondent.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Cam, Thanks Claire.

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Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is the Australian's Chief international correspondent and one

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Speaker 1: of our favorite guests here on the podcast. Together with

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Speaker 1: Foreign Editor Greg Sheridan and our correspondents around the world,

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Speaker 1: Cam helps shape unrivaled global coverage every day at the

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Speaker 1: Australian dot com dot au