1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:02,320 Speaker 1: Let's go to New York. Well, not so much, but 2 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:05,360 Speaker 1: in terms of what's happened in New York where Donald 3 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:08,840 Speaker 1: Trump has been found guilty thirty four counts, all counts 4 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:11,920 Speaker 1: in the hush money trial. This is a little bit 5 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: of the president outside court, the former president outside court, 6 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 1: the first US president to be convicted of criminal offenses. 7 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:25,599 Speaker 1: And this is Donald Trump. Here we go. 8 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 2: It is a rigged, disgraceful trial. The real verdict is 9 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:34,199 Speaker 2: going to be November by the people. And they know 10 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:37,239 Speaker 2: what happened here, and everybody knows what happened here. And 11 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:39,560 Speaker 2: we'll keep fighting or fight till the end, and we'll 12 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:43,199 Speaker 2: when because our country's going to hell. We don't have 13 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 2: the same country anymore. We have a divided mess. 14 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:49,640 Speaker 1: The former president there outside court, he's said a bit 15 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 1: more than that, but never stops campaigning. I suppose it's 16 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 1: the lesson we're learning out of Donald Trump. Associate Professor 17 00:00:56,360 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: David Smith, US Studies Center, UNI of Sydney right across 18 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 1: everything going on in US politics, And David, thank you 19 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: for your time. Once again. It's interesting, isn't it. Where 20 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:10,760 Speaker 1: does he take this now? Donald Trump? I see there's 21 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: a post route already. I guess the campaign might have 22 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 1: been ready to go. 23 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, he was prepared for this possibility. He will certainly 24 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 2: appeal this verdict, but that appeal will not take place 25 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:26,480 Speaker 2: until after the election, so until then he is a 26 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:31,399 Speaker 2: convicted felon. He'll definitely be fundraising of this, but so 27 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 2: well Democrats as well. And the big question is how 28 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 2: is this going to affect voters? The reality is there 29 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 2: probably aren't that many voters in America who have not 30 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 2: already made up their mind about Donald Trump. There's some 31 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 2: polling that suggests that there's maybe a sliver of Republican 32 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 2: voters about four percent who would have voted for Trump 33 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 2: but wouldn't vote for him if he was a convicted felon. 34 00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 2: That might not sound like much, but given how how 35 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 2: close the race is at the moment, where Trump seems 36 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 2: to have a polling lead of about one two percent 37 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 2: over by nationally and in some of the key swing states, 38 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 2: that actually could make a difference. But it's still five 39 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 2: months until the election, and we're going to hear a 40 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:16,959 Speaker 2: lot of political spin about that. 41 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 1: His running mate just on that is going to be 42 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 1: pretty crucial, then, isn't it to try and get voters 43 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 1: over onto his site. 44 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 2: Yeah. One of the interesting spectacles of this trial was 45 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 2: that a lot of people who've been considered as running 46 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 2: mates for Trump, So people like JD. Vance and Doug 47 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 2: Bergen and Barn Donalds, they all appeared outside of the 48 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 2: court dressed like Trump. They were all wearing these dark 49 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 2: blue suits and red ties and saying things that he 50 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 2: couldn't say because of the gag order, saying that the 51 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 2: trial was corrupt because the judge's daughter is a political 52 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 2: consultant who works with Democrats. So people are definitely auditioning 53 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:56,959 Speaker 2: for this role reality TV style. 54 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:00,679 Speaker 1: It's like a dog show competition, isn't it. The vice 55 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 1: presidential candidates, It's unreal. Okay, and even Nicki Hayley, you 56 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 1: didn't turn up outside court, but she endorses him, which 57 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: I thought was interesting. 58 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 2: Yeah. Nearly every Republican has endorsed Trump. Notable exceptions of 59 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,920 Speaker 2: that is his former vice president Mike men who refuses 60 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 2: to endorse him. We saw today there was one Republican, 61 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 2: Larry Hogan, the former governor of Maryland now running the 62 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 2: Senate in Maryland, who he tweeted out that Americans should 63 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:31,640 Speaker 2: respect the decision of the jury, should respect the verdict 64 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 2: and move on. And Trump's campaign immediately responded by telling him, 65 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 2: your campaign is over. So here we have a Republican 66 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 2: who's got a serious chance of winning a state that 67 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 2: could give Republicans control of the Senate, now being told 68 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 2: by the Trump campaign that his campaign is over because 69 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 2: he's telling Americans the response the. 70 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 1: Verdict, okay, well that that division didn't work well for 71 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 1: Trump in the White House, but potentially then could cost him, 72 00:03:57,800 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: could cost him. 73 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 2: Votes, could potentially cost in votes. As I say, well, 74 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 2: we'll need to wait and see about this. There probably 75 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 2: are people who would just find it too embarrassing to 76 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 2: vote for a convicted felon, especially people in that category 77 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 2: who haven't made their minds up yet. All the polls 78 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 2: that I'm seeing, it always shows both candidates with poll 79 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 2: numbers either in the low forties or the high thirties, 80 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:29,240 Speaker 2: which indicates there are twenty percent of Americans out there 81 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:32,280 Speaker 2: who either haven't made up their minds between the candidates 82 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 2: or who are going to be seriously drawn to someone 83 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 2: like Robert F. Kennedy. And that makes this election really 84 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:42,720 Speaker 2: really unpredictable. And this just adds another factor of unpredictability 85 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 2: into it. 86 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,039 Speaker 1: Kendidy's only hovering around nine to ten percent, isn't he 87 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 1: on the figures I stand, so he's a long way 88 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 1: behind at this stage. 89 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:54,279 Speaker 2: He is, but that's very high for a third candidate. 90 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 2: The last time that any third party candidate got numbers 91 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:01,720 Speaker 2: that high more than thirty years ago, it was in 92 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:04,920 Speaker 2: the nineteen ninety two election with Ross Perrot, and a 93 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:08,160 Speaker 2: lot of people blame Ross Perot for George H. W. 94 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 2: Bush losing that election because he drew away conservative voters. 95 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:14,919 Speaker 2: The thing that makes Kennedy very difficult to predict is 96 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:17,599 Speaker 2: it's hard to say who he will get more votes 97 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 2: from because he's a Democrat. But at the same time, 98 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 2: he has a lot of views that Trump supporters would hold. 99 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:26,599 Speaker 2: And actually he's been out there today saying that this 100 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:30,840 Speaker 2: verdict is it is Grace. So it's just made an 101 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:33,599 Speaker 2: unpredictable race even more unpredictable. 102 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:36,919 Speaker 1: For Trump himself. Though, is there ignomy apart from maybe 103 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:40,159 Speaker 1: that four percent? Who would care enough of Republican I mean, 104 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: he's not going to win over any Democrats, is he. 105 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:45,720 Speaker 1: Let's be real about that. But the Republican voters, the 106 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 1: ignomy have been the only American president to be convicted 107 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 1: in a criminal trial is you'd think relatively significant. 108 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:58,039 Speaker 2: Yeah, But his base they don't believe that this was 109 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 2: a legitimate trial. They believe that Trump is being persecuted. 110 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 2: This just affirms their view of the world, that it's 111 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 2: them and Trump versus the world essentially, and they will 112 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 2: definitely believe everything he says about the trial being politically rigged. 113 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 1: If he wins, he can pardon himself, presumably Cannie not with. 114 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 2: These charges, because these were state charges. There's no way 115 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,600 Speaker 2: that he can pardon himself. He can appeal, and the 116 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:30,840 Speaker 2: grounds of the appeal would probably be that the prosecution 117 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:35,360 Speaker 2: their witnesses, introduced material that wasn't relevant to the case. 118 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 2: During Stormy Daniel's testimony, at one point, Judge Merchant actually 119 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:44,839 Speaker 2: stopped the testimony and admitted that there were things that 120 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:48,960 Speaker 2: she was saying that probably didn't need to be didn't 121 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 2: need to be heard. That's probably what Trump's defense would 122 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 2: seize on in any appeal. But I really have to 123 00:06:55,400 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 2: say Trump's defense didn't do itself any favors in this. Normally, 124 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 2: defense lawyers will admit that their client is flawed. They'll 125 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 2: admit they might not be the greatest person, but they'll say, 126 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 2: the issue here is did they actually commit this crime? 127 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:14,160 Speaker 2: And a lot of legal observers thought that it would 128 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 2: be pretty easy for the defense to stay. Look, Trump 129 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 2: was in the White House when these records were being falsified. 130 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 2: It was clearly his company president and his lawyer who 131 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 2: were doing this. But they were making so many at 132 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 2: home and attacks on witnesses. They were saying at all 133 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 2: points that Trump had done nothing wrong, that he never 134 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 2: had this sexual encounter with Stormy Daniels, that these payments 135 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 2: that were made were definitely legal expenses and nothing else. 136 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 2: It really undermined the credibility of his case. So it's 137 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 2: a real problem when Trump is making his lawyers act 138 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 2: as campaigns currogus. It undermined their ability to mount the 139 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 2: effective defense. 140 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 1: Very interesting, David, as always, thank you for your insights, 141 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 1: and we'll see what happens next over there. What's his 142 00:07:57,680 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 1: next trial, because is there another one coming up with 143 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 1: the election. 144 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 2: The other trials are probably not going to happen before 145 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 2: the election. So the one about his role in January sixth, 146 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 2: that's been delayed while a Supreme Court considers his arguments 147 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 2: about immunity, and that probably won't happen before the election. 148 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 2: The Florida documents case, the judge is hearing a lot 149 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 2: of back and forth between the two teams about procedural issues, 150 00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 2: and it also looked like that one won't happen until 151 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 2: after the election. 152 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 1: Okay, all right, he's got only a little bit going 153 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 1: on at the moment. What about the was it Georgia 154 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:32,319 Speaker 1: where he's accused of trying to influence the result? 155 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, that one probably won't happen for years, because that's 156 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 2: a very complicated racketeering case that involves nineteen defendants. So 157 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 2: racketeering cases in Georgia can take there's one that it's 158 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 2: been ten years and it still hasn't actually gone to 159 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 2: court yet, so that one could take a while. 160 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:51,920 Speaker 1: Well, it's only got a bit on his plate then, 161 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 1: all right, thanks for your time, David, as always my pleasure. 162 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 1: Associate Professor David Smith, US Studies Center at the Union 163 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 1: of Sydney. All Right, the US president, former President Donald 164 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:05,200 Speaker 1: Trump saying didn't do a thing wrong, Thanks very much, 165 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 1: and we'll go to appeal and that'll be hurt at 166 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 1: some date in the future.