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Speaker 1: The Reserve Bank says the local labor market is running

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Speaker 1: too hot to cut interest rates. Aria is eleven billion

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Speaker 1: dollar bid for a UK property group has rejected, and

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Speaker 1: Carmala Harris comes out a point twinner against Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: in the US presidential debate, but maybe Taylor Swift delivered

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Speaker 1: the knockout blow. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business

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Speaker 1: news for people who make their own decisions. It is Thursday,

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Speaker 1: the twelfth of September twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael Sewan.

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Speaker 1: Immediately after the show, you have an interview coming up

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Speaker 1: with Bruce Wolpy all about the big debate yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Yes, Bruce is in very good form. He is a Democrat.

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Speaker 2: He has been watching Carmla Harris ever since she started

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Speaker 2: back in late July, and we get his take on

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Speaker 2: the debate. I think everyone would agree that, well not

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Speaker 2: everyone would agree, but even conservative commentators are leaning towards

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Speaker 2: the fact that Harris won that debate. But we get

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Speaker 2: Bruce to pick it all apart for us.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, and of course Bruce has worked with the Obama

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Speaker 1: administration and has just been in this space for so long.

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Speaker 1: So it is a great kind of insiders viewers to

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Speaker 1: what that debate meant yesterday on what it means now

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Speaker 1: for the next what fifty five days?

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Speaker 2: Is it? Fifty five days? Almost there?

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Speaker 1: Indeed, all right on with the main story. The local

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Speaker 1: labor market sean is running too hot and hindering efforts

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Speaker 1: to get inflation and interest rates lower. According to the

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Speaker 1: Reserve banks chief economists.

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Speaker 2: Sarah Hunter warned that the prospect of lower rates anytime

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Speaker 2: soon remains distant because the economy is still above full

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Speaker 2: employment now. Full employment occurs when the demand for and

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Speaker 2: supply of jobs is roughly in balance, meaning there's few

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Speaker 2: inflationary pressures from the labor market. When the economy is

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Speaker 2: above full employment, wage pressures flow through to higher inflation.

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Speaker 2: There are too many jobs. People have too many jobs.

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Speaker 2: Full employment is a bit difficult to pin down, doctor

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Speaker 2: Hunter said, and the Central Bank uses a bunch of

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Speaker 2: measures to try and work out what it is. Market

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Speaker 2: economists generally think it occurs when the unemployment rate is

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Speaker 2: around four and a half percent or so. Currently the

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Speaker 2: unemployment rate is four point two percent. That is leading

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Speaker 2: to inflationary pressures and it's why the Reserve Bank can't

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Speaker 2: see a rate cut anytime soon, or, as doctor Hunter

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Speaker 2: put it, conditions in the labor market remain tighter than

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Speaker 2: implied by full employment. Excellent Reserve Bank speak. There, thank

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Speaker 2: you very much, sir Hunt.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's gosh. The jargon is extraordinary, isn't it. It

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Speaker 1: is just yeah, dig hode it for us, please.

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Speaker 2: You basically say the labor market's too strong, and I

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Speaker 2: mean she said it was somewhat surprising that key indicators

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Speaker 2: across the jobs market, including ours worked and underemployment, had

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Speaker 2: remained so resilient, particularly given economic growth has slowed so much.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so she acknowledged that it is somewhat surprising. So

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Speaker 1: why is it happening?

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Speaker 2: Well, excellent question, which is sometimes how I start an

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Speaker 2: answer when I'm not exact sure where I'm going, doctor Hunter.

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Speaker 2: Let's leave it to her candidate. Dr Hunter said the

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Speaker 2: economy had experienced a surge in taxpayer funded on non

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Speaker 2: market jobs. So she's talking about jobs in aged care.

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Speaker 2: The ndis childcare and other health related programs. That really

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Speaker 2: is the main driver of the employment market in Australia.

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Speaker 2: But she expects the growth to slow in the unemployment

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Speaker 2: rate to start rising. With Reserve Bank's forecast at four

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Speaker 2: point four percent by the end of this year, that

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Speaker 2: would be very close to that full employment number that

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Speaker 2: market economists estimate. Doctor Harter also warned that the Reserve

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Speaker 2: Bank could be wrong and the unemployment rate could well

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Speaker 2: rise more quickly than the Reserve Bank expects. Also, businesses

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Speaker 2: could be engaging in labor hoarding, where they held on

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Speaker 2: to staff even as economic conditions weaken. That's actually fairly

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Speaker 2: typical at this point on the cycle. So there are

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Speaker 2: a bunch of reasons there. I just think it's very

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Speaker 2: interesting that the Reserve Bank is cognizant of the fact

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Speaker 2: that maybe they're wrong and the labor market could get

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Speaker 2: much worse, much quicker.

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Speaker 1: Well that's kind of consistent, isn't it then with what

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Speaker 1: Michelle Bullock has been saying about how really uncertainty is

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Speaker 1: the dominant theme here, and that feels like that's kind

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Speaker 1: of what doctor Hunter is reinforcing.

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Speaker 2: It is. What I think is interesting in Australia compared

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Speaker 2: to the US, for example, is that we are so

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Speaker 2: focused on inflation. The US is definitely shifting from inflation

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Speaker 2: to the labor market. Say Jerome Powell and Jackson Hole

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Speaker 2: last week the week before talked about not wanting labor

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Speaker 2: conditions to get any worse. We're not even talking about

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Speaker 2: labor made or Michell Bullock isn't talking about labor markets. Really,

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Speaker 2: she's just talking about inflation. But that shift in the

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Speaker 2: US is already there. That's why they're going to cut

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Speaker 2: rates next week. That hasn't happened here.

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Speaker 1: All right, Let's take a look at local markets, shall we.

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Speaker 1: How did the local boss perform? Yesterday?

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Speaker 2: The S and PA SX two hundred closed down a

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Speaker 2: bit zero point three percent. That's the definition of a bit.

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Speaker 2: It finished.

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Speaker 1: You've been infected by all of this jargon and now

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Speaker 1: you're trying to invent your own.

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Speaker 2: Well jargon, people understand it finished at seven thy, nine

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Speaker 2: hundred and eighty eight points. The bank's roller coaster ride continued,

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Speaker 2: with ain Z, COMMONWORF Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac

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Speaker 2: all down around two percent. Different story for the big miners.

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Speaker 2: On the back of a rebounded iron ore prices, fot

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Speaker 2: To Skew Metals Group finished up nearly three percent, BHP

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Speaker 2: was up two percent, Rio about one percent, or a

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Speaker 2: little more than one percent Woodside was down two and

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Speaker 2: a half percent. Bit of m and a action going

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Speaker 2: on energy and digital infrastructure investor Infratil is backing a

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Speaker 2: plan to sell Menoir Energy to New Zealand's Contact Energy.

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Speaker 2: That deals valued at one point seven billion dollars. Why

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Speaker 2: do we care because Infantil is a fifty one percent

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Speaker 2: shareholder in Manawa gold mine, and Newmont has agreed to

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Speaker 2: sell its majority stake in the Telfa mine in Western

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Speaker 2: Australia and handful of other assets to UK lists of

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Speaker 2: Greatland Gold. Remember these assets used to be owned by

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Speaker 2: new Crest, brought by Newmont, and new Mont's getting rid

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Speaker 2: of some of these assets to Greatland. Greatland said it

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Speaker 2: wants to ultimately list on the AX and Data Center

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Speaker 2: operator next DC. It fell six percent after it went

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Speaker 2: out and raised five hundred and fifty million dollars this

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Speaker 2: year thirty two million new shares. In fact, it was

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Speaker 2: the worst performer on the ASEX two hundred yesterday.

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Speaker 1: And just quickly, what's happening on international markets?

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Speaker 2: Just the numbers. Michael Brent Cruz trading around seventy US

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Speaker 2: dollars a barrel goals at twenty five twenty five US

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Speaker 2: dollars announced bitcoins fetching fifty six thousand US dollars a unit,

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Speaker 2: and the Aussie dollar is buying sixty six point six

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Speaker 2: US cents. Why am I interested in that? Because Michael.

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Speaker 2: Today's episode of Ask Fear and Greed all about the

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Speaker 2: Aussie dollar.

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Speaker 1: Oh that's a great point. So yeah, Ask Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed is our bonus episode. It comes out Tuesdays and Thursdays,

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Speaker 1: and it comes out bang on midday. And you're right,

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Speaker 1: today's bonus episode is answering a question from Buster, and

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Speaker 1: it is all about the Aussie dollar and kind of

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Speaker 1: the forces that affect it and kind of when's a

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Speaker 1: good time to go on holidays. It's kind of right

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Speaker 1: up your alley.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, don't go where I'm going. That seems to be

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Speaker 2: the theory.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And if you have your own question, just like

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Speaker 1: Buster has done, just send it on through go to

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Speaker 1: the website Fear Andgreed dot com dot au or headlong

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Speaker 1: to any of the social media platforms LinkedIn Instagram, Facebook

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Speaker 1: and send us a message on there and we will

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Speaker 1: pop it on the list and get to it as

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Speaker 1: soon as we possibly can. That's coming out at midday,

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Speaker 1: so keep an eye on your playlist in the meantime, Sean,

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Speaker 1: We'll be back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news. Sean. Aria is eleven billion dollar

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Speaker 1: bid for British classified's leader, right Move has been rejected.

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Speaker 1: Perhaps not surprisingly, though there is probably more to play

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Speaker 1: out in this deal.

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Speaker 2: I think that's true. Aria, which is sixty one percent

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Speaker 2: owned by News Corp, has been a local success story,

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Speaker 2: with the share price up more than twenty percent over

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Speaker 2: the past year. It bid for right Move and it

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Speaker 2: said it would list in London its successful The offer

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Speaker 2: was a twenty seven percent premium to right Move share

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Speaker 2: price before the deal was revealed. Now that's been knocked

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Speaker 2: back yesterday. Under UK takeover laws, Aria has until the

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Speaker 2: end of this month to make a formal offer or

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Speaker 2: walk away. Aria share price closed down two and a

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Speaker 2: half percent yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Is that they put up or shut up rules?

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Speaker 2: You put up for shut up rules? Well done.

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Speaker 1: Yes, I've been a little bit obsessed with those ever

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Speaker 1: since kind of BHP was forced to put up with

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Speaker 1: these within these rules for the Anglo American bit interesting

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Speaker 1: now sewn extraordinary scenes. Yesterday police arrested thirty three protesters

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Speaker 1: in Melbourne, and some are accused of throwing a liquid

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Speaker 1: containing acid over officers, while others are charged with arson

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Speaker 1: attacks and blocking roadways. This is really quite remarkable.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there's about twenty five or an estimated twenty five

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Speaker 2: thousand people at the anti war rally held outside the

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Speaker 2: Melbourne Convention Center, which was hosting the Landforces Defense Expo.

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Speaker 2: It ended up with violent clashes between demonstrators and the police.

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Speaker 2: The Victor Tryan Police Chief Commissioner Shane Patton was forced

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Speaker 2: to defend the actions. He actually commended the police for

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Speaker 2: their restraint while managing the protest. He also justified some

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Speaker 2: of the force used by officers that included Robert bullets,

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Speaker 2: flashbag devices and pepper spray, saying it was appropriate under

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Speaker 2: the circumstances. Whatever the case is, it certainly was disturbing

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Speaker 2: to see in one of our major cities such a

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Speaker 2: violent protest going on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Indeed, Country Road Group, the company behind the fashion

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Speaker 1: label and other well known clothing and accessories changed, is

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Speaker 1: repositioning two of its major brands and entering the fragrance

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Speaker 1: market in a broad reset following a horror year.

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Speaker 2: A little country right on the cheeks in the neck Michael.

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Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, might just dab a little bit here and there.

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Speaker 2: I think so.

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Speaker 1: So.

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Speaker 2: The company is owned by South Africa's Woolworth's Holdings. It's

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Speaker 2: fallen out of favor with shoppers. Sales and own profits

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Speaker 2: fell sixty six percent last financial year. Now, according to

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Speaker 2: reporting the finn Review, the company has also I've spent

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Speaker 2: the past nine months in crisis over allegations of workplace

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Speaker 2: sexual harassment and bullying, with a lawn firm investigating where

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Speaker 2: the complaints raised by staff were mishandled by management. Country

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Speaker 2: Road has now told staff it will make major changes

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Speaker 2: to its brands. It will introduce cheaper products at its

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Speaker 2: men's suit brand Politics, and offer more smart casual options

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Speaker 2: at Mimco, which sells women's leather accessories. It plans to

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Speaker 2: launch lower entry priced bags and increasingly offer more non

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Speaker 2: leather bag products. At Country Road, which was founded in

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Speaker 2: nineteen seventy four, known for its basic stinum dresses, T shirts,

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Speaker 2: Chambra shirts very big in my time home Wear's that

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Speaker 2: sort of stuff will it plans to launch a cent

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Speaker 2: for the first time. I don't think you can get

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Speaker 2: a Chombra shirt at Country Road anymore. I haven't been

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Speaker 2: there for years.

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Speaker 1: That seems like an odd assignment. You've just set yourself. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: going shopping on the fear and greed card. Fear and

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Speaker 1: greed scent? Is that an idea?

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Speaker 2: Oh? What would hell? What would it smell like? There?

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Speaker 1: Just pheromones.

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Speaker 2: And moreover?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, sea saltan money, that's what it.

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Speaker 2: Yes, Yeah, goodness, I like it.

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Speaker 1: I reckon, that's a revenue stream. We'll put it to Adam.

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Speaker 1: The chairman of the AX, Damien Roach, will retire next

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Speaker 1: month after four years as head of the board of

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Speaker 1: the share market operator, a period notable for the failed

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Speaker 1: rollout of critical settlement and clearing infrastructure known as Chess.

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Speaker 2: Mister Raach will be replaced by former Westpac banker David Clark,

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Speaker 2: who's currently chair of property investor Chater Hall. Mister Clark

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Speaker 2: will join the board immediately now. Mister Rach leaves after

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Speaker 2: the Australian Securities and Investments Commission sued Asex Limited, alleging

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Speaker 2: the company misled investors about the failure to upgrade Chess

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Speaker 2: with blockchain technology, a disaster that ultimately led to a

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Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty million dollar right down in a

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Speaker 2: slump in Asex Limited's share price. That action has been

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Speaker 2: taken against the company minds you, not the individual directors

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Speaker 2: to Roage became chair of the ASEX in twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 2: That was a year before the company revealed its problems.

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Speaker 2: He's been in the firing line ever since. He's actually

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Speaker 2: been a director of the company since twenty fourteen. He'll

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Speaker 2: formerly retire at the AGM SEAN.

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Speaker 1: There's been very little good news for lithium miners recently,

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Speaker 1: with tumbling prices sending valuations south, but the closure of

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Speaker 1: a lithium mine in China has triggered a surge in

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Speaker 1: local lithium players.

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Speaker 2: The four best performing stocks on the AX two hundred

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Speaker 2: yesterday were Mineral Resources and Linetown Resources, both up sixteen percent,

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Speaker 2: Coolbra Minerals up fourteen percent, and Arcadium Lithium up eleven percent.

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Speaker 2: Or lithium players. There were reports that Chinese electric vehicle

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Speaker 2: battery maker coatl had suspended two of its minds in China.

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Speaker 2: That was expected to cut Chinese supply sharply about eight percent.

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Speaker 2: In fact, in lithium prices jumped ahead of yesterday, Lithium

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Speaker 2: prizes had dived to their lowest level since twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 2: A soft command from China in waning appetite for electric

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Speaker 2: vehicles collided part in the pun with an oversupply of

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Speaker 2: the battery material, leading to higher inventories, also helping mineral resources.

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Speaker 2: Yesterday was news that the Foreign Investment Review Board had

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Speaker 2: approved the sale of a forty nine percent interest in

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Speaker 2: the Onslow Iron Hall Road worth one point three billion

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Speaker 2: dollars to Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners.

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Speaker 1: All Right, turning to international news now and Vice President

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Speaker 1: Carmela Harris was the winner of the US presidential debate yesterday,

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Speaker 1: according to most pundits, though the hardest blow against Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump came moments after the debate actually ended, when pop

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Speaker 1: superstar Taylor Swift told her two hundred and eighty three

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Speaker 1: million followers that she'd be voting for Miss Harris.

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Speaker 2: In terms of influences, no one is as big as

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Speaker 2: Taylor Swift, and she said Miss Harris fights for the

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Speaker 2: rights and issues she believes in. Then she signed her

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Speaker 2: taller Swift childless cat lady, of course, a reference to

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Speaker 2: a comment made by Vice President hopeful Jada Events a

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Speaker 2: little while ago. The debate itself was robust. Would you

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Speaker 2: agree Michael.

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Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, Yeah, it was fascinating to watch. Actually a

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Speaker 1: completely different debate to what we saw last time, of course,

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Speaker 1: between Trump and Joe Biden.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Kamala Harris started slowly, but she really warmed into

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Speaker 2: the battle. So when there's sort of early minutes, I

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Speaker 2: think Donald Trump landed blows around the economy, around immigration.

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Speaker 2: He continued to harp on about immigration. But the further

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Speaker 2: the debate went on, the more Kamala Harris was able

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Speaker 2: to debate the form of president. He got to the

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Speaker 2: point where where he was talking he repeated the debunked

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Speaker 2: claims about Haitians eating pets. That was probably the most

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Speaker 2: ridiculous point of it. Harris attacked Trump on abortion, his

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Speaker 2: fitness for offers, his reputation among global leaders, and his

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Speaker 2: reputation among the middle and she basically said he was

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Speaker 2: unworthy of the role of president. Now the race remains

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Speaker 2: very tight. Yesterday's performance by Harris plus Taylor Swiss critical

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Speaker 2: endorsement did nothing to discourage Democrat hopefuls.

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Speaker 1: How about the handshake at the start, Sean, I thought

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Speaker 1: that was it looked like it had all the makings

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Speaker 1: of a very awkward moment because Donald Trump did not

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Speaker 1: look like he wanted to shake hands, and Carmala Harris

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Speaker 1: just went straight in and charged across the stage and

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Speaker 1: introduced herself, Carmala Harris, good to meet you, kind of

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Speaker 1: thing like.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just it's fantastic.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, reinforcing the fact that they had never actually met

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Speaker 1: prior to that point.

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Speaker 2: There's no handshake at the end, was there. I didn't

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Speaker 2: see a handshake.

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Speaker 1: At the end, but no, I don't think there was.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they'd be feeling particularly friendly towards each

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Speaker 1: other by the end with it. I don't think they're

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Speaker 1: particularly friendly at the beginning either, but there was still

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Speaker 1: a handshake there.

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Speaker 2: Amazing. It's good fun.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I definitely have a listen as well to

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Speaker 1: the interview coming up after the show with Bruce Welby,

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Speaker 1: because he goes into all of this and he knows

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Speaker 1: this space so well. As we mentioned before. Now, Apple

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Speaker 1: has suffered a significant defeat after the EU's top Court

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Speaker 1: rule the iPhone maker must pay thirteen billion euros in

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Speaker 1: back taxes, overturning an earlier decision in the Big Tech

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Speaker 1: Group's favor.

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Speaker 2: The ruling relates to a twenty sixteen case when the

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Speaker 2: EU's competition watchdog said Ireland had given the company an

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Speaker 2: illegal sweetheart deal, amouning to a tax rate of less

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Speaker 2: than one percent. The European Court of Justice said in

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Speaker 2: its final ruling that it confirms the European Commission's twenty

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Speaker 2: sixteen decision Ireland granted Apple unlawful aid, which Ireland is

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Speaker 2: required to recover now. Apple's chief executive Tim Cook has

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Speaker 2: previously dismissed the Commission's position. He called it total political crap.

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Speaker 2: According to the FT, I'm sure he's changed his mind now.

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Speaker 2: The case has been watched carefully across the globe as

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Speaker 2: a watershed moment for big text tax affairs in Europe. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: Brussels also won a landmark anti trust case against Google

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Speaker 2: after the European Court of Justice rule the search giant

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Speaker 2: abused its market power by ranking its shopping services over rivals,

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Speaker 2: granting itself an illegal and unfair advantage. The court upheld

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Speaker 2: a two point four billion dollar EU competition fine against

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Speaker 2: the company in the case. To very big decisions against

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Speaker 2: the tech guys, Yeah, Massive.

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Speaker 1: Day one Last One, a Novo Nordisk weight loss drug,

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Speaker 1: is safe and effective in children as young as six,

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Speaker 1: According to a new company funded study, opening the way

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Speaker 1: for the drug to become the first treatment for obesity

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Speaker 1: to be made available to the age.

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Speaker 2: Group, so that age group, that six to twelve age

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Speaker 2: group of children are considered obese. Now the study looked

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Speaker 2: at I think it was only eighty eight children aged

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Speaker 2: six to twelve using injectable pens for just every year

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Speaker 2: point four percent reduction in their body mass index compared

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Speaker 2: to those on a placebo. According to the trial, lira

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Speaker 2: glue tide is a diabetes and weight loss treatment in

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Speaker 2: the same GLP one class of drugs as of zepic

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Speaker 2: and w goovii treatments. They are also non or disk products.

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Speaker 2: The company will now seek regulatory approval from the US

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Speaker 2: Food and Drug Administration and then from European Medicines Agency,

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Speaker 2: presumably eventually here in Australia to expand the use of

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Speaker 2: liraglue tide to under twelves. At the moment, there is

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Speaker 2: no pharmaceutical treatment approved for general obesity in that six

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Speaker 2: to twelve year age group, so if it does get

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Speaker 2: through the clinical trials, it is quite a step forward.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Indeed, all right, now, I mentioned a number of occasions.

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Speaker 1: Now the interview coming up next with Bruce will be

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Speaker 1: definitely worth a listen. And the other thing that's worth

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Speaker 1: a listen today, Sean and I forgot to mention this

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Speaker 1: yesterday is the new episode of our sister podcast, How

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Speaker 1: Do They Afford? That? It is this week all about

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Speaker 1: it's featuring one of our favorite guests from Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Would you believe? Roger Montgomery Montgomery Investment Management, and he

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Speaker 1: is talking about it's basically a guide to investing for

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Speaker 1: each generation. So we actually go through Gen Z and

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Speaker 1: Gen Y and millennials and Gen X and baby boomers

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Speaker 1: and the difference in priorities for investing. What a great idea,

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Speaker 1: and he does it so well. He works his way

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Speaker 1: through and there's a whole lot of the spear off

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Speaker 1: in different directions, but there are so many kind of

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Speaker 1: nuggets of investing wisdom from Roger Montgomery during during this podcast.

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Speaker 1: So I'll put a link in today's show notes how

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Speaker 1: Do They Afford? That is the name of the show.

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Speaker 1: It comes out every week and it's all about making

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Speaker 1: your money work harder for you. But definitely definitely I

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Speaker 1: know I'm biased because I'm in it, but it's definitely

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Speaker 1: worth this.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure it is. I can't wait. I'll be listening.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Hey uch Sewan.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Thursday, the twelfth of September twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was.

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Speaker 2: Fair and greed.

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Speaker 1: Have a great day.