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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Two new polls so Prime Minister Anthony Aberanesi's popularity is soaring,

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Speaker 1: just in time for the government to reform. Round table concerts,

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Speaker 1: faces are reckoning, with a judge poised to hand down

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Speaker 1: a record fine and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski to meet

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Speaker 1: with Donald Trump after Trump's meeting with Vladimir Putin ended

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Speaker 1: without a ceasefire, plus auction clearance rates jump, and why

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Speaker 1: Paris has seen a surge in luxury handbag heists. It

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Speaker 1: is Monday, the eighteenth of August twenty twenty five. I'm

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Speaker 1: Michael Thompson and good morning. Natalie McDonald's.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Something for everyone today. We've got everything from handbag heists

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Speaker 1: through to round tables. Let's get cracking the main story

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Speaker 1: this morning. Prime Minister Anthony Aberzi is heading into a

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Speaker 1: really a huge week for the government and is doing

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Speaker 1: it on a high because tomorrow the much anticipated round

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Speaker 1: table on the economic reform kicks off in Canberra, just

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Speaker 1: as two new polls show Labour's support climbing to its

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Speaker 1: highest level in two years.

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Speaker 2: The latest Resolve political monitor in the nine Newspapers shows

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Speaker 2: Labour's primary vote at thirty seven percent, up two and

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Speaker 2: a half points from the May election, while the coalition

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Speaker 2: remains steady at twenty nine percent. On a two party

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Speaker 2: preferred basis, Labour leads fifty nine forty one, its strongest

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Speaker 2: results since April twenty three. The result is strong enough

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Speaker 2: that if an election were to be held today, Labour

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Speaker 2: would actually increase its majority. Albanesi's net approval rating has

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Speaker 2: returned to positive territory for the first time since September

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Speaker 2: twenty three, with forty nine percent satisfied with his performance.

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Speaker 2: The last time he was around these levels was just

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Speaker 2: prior to the Voice referendum. His popularity took a hit

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Speaker 2: after that, but it seems he's now recovered. Opposition leader

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Speaker 2: Susan Lee remain means more likable than other coalition figures.

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Speaker 2: In fact, the poll found that she's the most likable

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Speaker 2: MP on either side, but her net rating is minus nine,

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Speaker 2: with thirty five percent satisfied and forty four percent dissatisfied.

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Speaker 2: Still a very big job to do.

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Speaker 1: There, yeah, certainly is, and it is interesting that we

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Speaker 1: have two poles essentially coming out at the same time

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Speaker 1: and they are telling a very similar story because those

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Speaker 1: findings are echoed in the news poll results that are

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Speaker 1: in the Australian Today. The primary vote isn't as high,

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Speaker 1: but the Prime Minister's approval rating has certainly rebounded again

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Speaker 1: to levels not seen since before the referendum. Newspot delves

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Speaker 1: into a few other things that are really interesting, I think,

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Speaker 1: showing that Australians are more concerned about Donald Trump's tariffs

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Speaker 1: than the rising military threat from China and the build

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Speaker 1: up of its presence within the region. And this comes

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Speaker 1: as Treasurer Jim Chalmers takes a we've got to say

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Speaker 1: a fairly thinly veiled shot at the US President over

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Speaker 1: what he described nuisance tariffs.

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Speaker 2: He's come out with some great quotes lately. We had

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Speaker 2: a good day last week when the Reserve Bank cut

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Speaker 2: and now nuisance tariffs.

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Speaker 1: But yes, it's it's like he's channeling Paul Keating. Paul

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Speaker 1: Kating defined kind of good one liners, right, and Jim

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Speaker 1: Chalmers has a long long way to go before we

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Speaker 1: can describe it as Keating esk but he's hitting in

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Speaker 1: the right direction.

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Speaker 2: So when it comes to these nuisance tariffs, he signaled

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Speaker 2: a fresh crackdown on them, describing these terraffs as a

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Speaker 2: tax that hurts workers, families and businesses. The Albanese government

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Speaker 2: has already scrapped five hundred duties on everyday goods such

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Speaker 2: as fridges and toothbrushes, saving companies, and estimated one hundred

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Speaker 2: and eighty million dollars in compliance costs by twenty thirty

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Speaker 2: and streamlining about eight and a half billion dollars in

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Speaker 2: annual trade. Chalmers told Sky News that many tariffs cost

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Speaker 2: more to administer than the revenue they generate, and warned

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Speaker 2: they risk pushing up household While Australia did avoid a

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Speaker 2: US terrifike earlier this month, experts still face blanket ten

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Speaker 2: percent charges, Chalmers saying he would seek consensus to abolish

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Speaker 2: more duties, stressing tariffs quote often do more harm than

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Speaker 2: good Now.

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Speaker 1: Of course, as we mentioned before, this is a big

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Speaker 1: week for the government and so the timing of these polls,

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Speaker 1: both newspoll and the result polls coming out. It is

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Speaker 1: good for the Prime Minister to be heading into the

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Speaker 1: three day Economic Reform roundtable which starts tomorrow basically on

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Speaker 1: a high and he's used this to reaffirm Labour's commitment

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Speaker 1: to lower taxes.

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Speaker 2: Speaking in Perth yesterday, the PM said tax reform could

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Speaker 2: be discussed and pointed to his government's push to deliver

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Speaker 2: tax cuts, saying we put that to the election and

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Speaker 2: the Australian people voted for the lower taxes and lower

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Speaker 2: deficits that we were offering compared with the coalition. Anthony

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Speaker 2: Albanesi also saying that while the Roundtable would deal with

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Speaker 2: the economic challenges of boosting productivity quote, we need to

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Speaker 2: make sure that it operates in the interests of the

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Speaker 2: people as well, including how to train Australians for the

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Speaker 2: jobs of the future. He's going to have a lot

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Speaker 2: to deal with over the next few days. One of

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Speaker 2: Australia's biggest unions, the Shop Distributive and Allies Employees Association,

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Speaker 2: is pushing for a mandatory productivity dividend to ensure workers

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Speaker 2: share in efficiency gains. They want higher pay, extra leave

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Speaker 2: or shorter hours. It's quite the shopping list.

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Speaker 1: It certainly is, and really the PM is going to

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Speaker 1: have his work cut out for him kind of trying

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Speaker 1: to wrangle all of this together, as will the Treasurer

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Speaker 1: after the show today. It is worth the mention of this.

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Speaker 1: We have fear and Greed Q and A coming up

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Speaker 1: and every Monday we speak to our resident economist Stephen

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Speaker 1: could call us for a look at what's coming up

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Speaker 1: in the weak ahead in the economy. Today we really

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Speaker 1: do focus on the economic Roundtable and in particular productivity

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Speaker 1: and how we can solve the productivity crisis in Australia.

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Speaker 1: And it's basically a one oh one on productivity. What

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Speaker 1: it is, how it's measured, how it can be improved,

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Speaker 1: and what needs to come out of this roundtable to

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Speaker 1: actually see some meaningful improvement. So stick around for that one.

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Speaker 1: It is coming up after the show. Now moving away

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Speaker 1: from politics, Natalie, Auction clearance rates have surged following the

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Speaker 1: Reserve Bank's latest interest rate cut, hitting their highest level

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Speaker 1: since April last year.

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Speaker 2: I think the question is what hasn't moved higher following

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Speaker 2: the cut last week? It good point it was to

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Speaker 2: bring up Jim Charms again. It really was a good

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Speaker 2: day across Australia's capital cities. The combined preliminary auction clearance

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Speaker 2: rate climbed to seventy five percent from seventy one point

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Speaker 2: seven percent a week earlier. Melbourne log de clearance rate

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Speaker 2: of seventy five point five percent, while Sydney came in

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Speaker 2: at seventy five percent flat. Brisbane's clearance rate brews two

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Speaker 2: point five percentage points from last week to sixty nine

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Speaker 2: point six percent, while Adelaide had its third highest clearance

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Speaker 2: rate of the year at seventy eight percent, and the

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Speaker 2: Act coming in hot with its clearance rate hitting eighty

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Speaker 2: point six percent. Economists say the cut, which lifted average

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Speaker 2: borrowing capacity by up to twenty four thousand dollars for

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Speaker 2: dual income households, has sparked renewed bier confidence, especially amongst

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Speaker 2: first home buyers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we are certainly seeing that, and you mentioned the

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Speaker 1: fact that just everything was up last week and the

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Speaker 1: local boss was certainly no exception there because I think

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Speaker 1: in the end we had five consecutive days where records

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Speaker 1: were broken on the AX. Is it going to continue?

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Speaker 2: Well, it looks like investors are potentially going to take

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Speaker 2: a breather following that unprecedented run and instead have a

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Speaker 2: bit of a watch and wait, especially when we have

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Speaker 2: the Federal Reserves high stakes gathering at Jackson's Hole later

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Speaker 2: this week. So futures indicating that the SMPASX two hundred

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Speaker 2: will probably fall at the open.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, massive starts of the show. We've got

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Speaker 1: play twenty still to come. Let's take a very quick break.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news. Natalie Quantas faces are reckoning today

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Speaker 1: and potentially the biggest penalty in Australian industrial relations history,

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Speaker 1: with the Federal Court set to hand down a record

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Speaker 1: fine for illegally sacking one eight hundred workers during the pandemic.

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Speaker 2: Justice Michael Lee is expected to impose the biggest fine

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Speaker 2: in history for breaches of industrial relations laws, potentially up

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Speaker 2: to one hundred and twenty one million dollars. Even a

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Speaker 2: reduced figure of forty million dollars would dwarf the usual

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Speaker 2: one to five million dollar fines that you usually see

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Speaker 2: around these types of rulings. Now, the ruling comes on

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Speaker 2: top of one hundred and twenty million dollars in compensation

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Speaker 2: that's already been awarded to sacked groundworkers five years on

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Speaker 2: from being told some of them by video link in

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Speaker 2: the break room they were being outsourced by the National Carrier.

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Speaker 2: There are some questions though about who gets the money.

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Speaker 2: The Transport Workers Union, which fought quantus through multiple appeals

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Speaker 2: all the way to the High Court, argues the full

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Speaker 2: penalty should be paid directly to the union as deterrence,

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Speaker 2: though business groups warned that that could embolden unions to

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Speaker 2: pursue more costly litigation.

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Speaker 1: It absolutely feels like a minefield. Like it's not just

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Speaker 1: the fact that there is this potential fine coming through it.

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Speaker 1: There is then a dispute over who gets the money.

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Speaker 1: It feels like a will dispute after someone has passed away.

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Speaker 2: So from my understanding, essentially Justice Michael Lee has the

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Speaker 2: choice to either pay the money to the Commonwealth, to

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Speaker 2: the unions or to a person. And the concern the

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Speaker 2: concern is that if the Transport Workers Union gets this

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Speaker 2: huge sum of money, I mean, what can't you do

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Speaker 2: with you know, one hundred and twenty one million dollars.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and it may well set a precedent then for

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Speaker 1: other As you say, are the unions considering litigation that

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Speaker 1: that can take a very long time and cost a

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Speaker 1: lot of money to go through the courts. Now, billionaire

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Speaker 1: James Packer, we haven't talked about him much lately. He's

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Speaker 1: back in the gambling game. His first big foray into

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Speaker 1: gambling since he sold his Crown Resort Steak to Blackstone

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two for more than three billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: Packers Consolidated Press International Holdings has taken major stakes worth

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Speaker 2: around half a billion dollars in global betting and gaming companies.

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Speaker 2: That includes around three hundred and ten million in poker

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Speaker 2: machine and gaming software maker Light and Wonder, which is

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Speaker 2: in fact planning to move from the NASDAQ to the ASX,

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Speaker 2: and close to two hundred million dollars in Flutter Entertainment.

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Speaker 2: That's the bookmaker that owns sports bet Since selling off

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Speaker 2: his Crown Steak in twenty two, Packers been riding the

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Speaker 2: tech boom with stocks like Nvidia, Amazon and Meta, but

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Speaker 2: has now scaled those back.

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Speaker 1: Property group Mervak is predicting Australia's next housing boom. It's

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Speaker 1: probably in no real surprise considering the business therein, but

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Speaker 1: they are pointing to falling interest rates and stronger buyer demand.

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Speaker 2: Chief executive Campbell Hannon said the developer had seen a

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Speaker 2: strong pickup in residential activity, with unconditional sales up nearly

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Speaker 2: forty percent and one point nine billion dollars in pre

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Speaker 2: sales locked in The company has secured ten thousand new

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Speaker 2: lots over the past two years and plans major releases

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Speaker 2: in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne, particularly in middle ring areas

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Speaker 2: benefiting from easing mortgage pressure. Murvak reporting four hundred and

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Speaker 2: seventy four million dollars in operating earnings, down from five

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty two million, but swung back to a

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Speaker 2: sixty eight million dollar profit after last year's massive eight

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Speaker 2: hundred and five million dollar loss.

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Speaker 1: Now I like this next story, Natalie. Australians are choosing

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Speaker 1: Asia over the US for travel, with Japan surging to

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Speaker 1: the third most popular destination. But this is really interesting

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Speaker 1: because the driver isn't actually politics.

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Speaker 2: No, which, as you say, a surprised because you might

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Speaker 2: think that it would be. But according to the ABS,

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Speaker 2: more than nine hundred and ten thousand Australians visited Japan

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Speaker 2: last year, almost double pre pandemic levels and overtaking the US,

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Speaker 2: which welcomed less than seven hundred and fifty thousand Australian tourists,

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Speaker 2: well below the one point one million seen in twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 2: Indonesia retains the top spot no surprise, with one point

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Speaker 2: seven million visitors, but industry leaders say Vietnam is actually

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Speaker 2: one to watch as demand accelerates now, the reason being

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Speaker 2: Japan and Vietnam offer stronger value, helped by favorable exchange

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Speaker 2: rates and more competitive travel costs at various stages. Last year,

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Speaker 2: the Australian dollar hit one hundred yen. In contrast, US

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Speaker 2: travel has been constrained by high accommodation costs and this

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Speaker 2: has been leaving visitors to opt for shorter trips. With

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Speaker 2: that in mind, I've.

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Speaker 1: Actually put the full table of these of where people

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Speaker 1: are hitting in today's Fear and Greed newsletter. So if

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Speaker 1: you haven't subscribed already, head along to Fearangreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au or check the link in today's show notes

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Speaker 1: popular email addressing and you get it every day by

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Speaker 1: six am. It's just interesting to see those other countries

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Speaker 1: and just how much has changed since pre pandemic to

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Speaker 1: now turning to international news, and the big story really

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Speaker 1: is a Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelenski meeting today with US

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Speaker 1: President Donald Trump in Washington, just days after the US

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Speaker 1: leaders talks with Russia's Vladimir Putin in Alaska ended, not

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Speaker 1: just without a concrete deal, without any kind of deal

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Speaker 1: really so.

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Speaker 2: At the Alaska summit, Putin demanded Ukraine withdraw from Donetsk

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Speaker 2: and Luhansk as a condition for ending the war, but

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Speaker 2: offered Trump a freeze along the remaining frontline. The Guardian

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Speaker 2: reports Zelenski rejected the demand, according to reports, Also, this

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Speaker 2: meeting will be Zelenski's first visit to the US since

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Speaker 2: being publicly berated by Donald Trump, who called him disrespectful

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Speaker 2: during a meeting in February.

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Speaker 1: Just quickly, what's emerged has been a major shift in position,

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Speaker 1: it seems from Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: It really has. Trump wrote on his platform True Social

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Speaker 2: following Friday summit that a peace agreement would be the

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Speaker 2: best way to end the horrific war, rather than a ceasefire,

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Speaker 2: which the president claimed often do not hold up. In

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Speaker 2: an interview with Fox News following the summit, Trump was

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Speaker 2: asked what advice he had for the Ukrainian leader, to

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Speaker 2: which he replied, make a deal, adding Russias a very

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Speaker 2: big power, and they're not. In response, several European leaders

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Speaker 2: have signed a joint statement pledging continued support for Ukraine,

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Speaker 2: seeing the country must have iron cloud security guarantees to

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Speaker 2: defend its territorial integrity and the borders must not be

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Speaker 2: changed by force.

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Speaker 1: All right, one last one to finish up. Natalie I

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Speaker 1: mentioned this at the top of the show. Paris has

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Speaker 1: seen a surge in million euro luxury handbag heists, with

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Speaker 1: police saying that handbags have actually over taken jewelry as

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Speaker 1: the prize for organized gangs.

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Speaker 2: Criminals are targeting brands like Ermez, Chanelle, Dior and Louis

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Speaker 2: Veraton sort of all the usuals. Louis Veruton's Paris offices

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Speaker 2: and boutiques have been ram rated multiple times, with losses

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Speaker 2: topping one million euros each. Y handbags well, unlike jewelry,

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Speaker 2: luxury bags are actually harder to trace. They're easier to

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Speaker 2: resell thanks to booming global demand and the second hand

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Speaker 2: market in countries like Beijing Dubai. London. Experts say a

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Speaker 2: Chanel bag that cost five thousand juries five years ago

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Speaker 2: can now sell for ten thousand euros, making them fairly

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Speaker 2: irresistible to theeves. But if you are jetting off to Europe,

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Speaker 2: don't panic. Crime overall in Paris has shown a market

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Speaker 2: drop in the first half of this.

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Speaker 1: Year, unless you carrying a Chanel bag, in which case

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Speaker 1: you have a target on your back.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I tend to leave mine at home.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, me too. All right up next is Fearing Greed

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Speaker 1: Q and A featuring Steven and Can call us all

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Speaker 1: about productivity today. It is an absolute must listen.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Natalie, Thank you Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Monday, the eighteenth of August twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and that was Fhear and Greed. Have a great day.