Speaker 1: Center. This is Paul Murray Live. Thank you Calem, thank
Speaker 1: you team. Yeah, this time last week it was Bateman's Bay,
Speaker 1: then we went to Vegas and now we're back in
Speaker 1: the man Cave. So unless I am certain, we stay
Speaker 1: here for the next little while. All right, looking forward
Speaker 1: to your company. Great to be back in the man Cave.
Speaker 1: Great to be back in Australia. So all eyes now
Speaker 1: at federal elections Sunday nights on. This program is one
Speaker 1: for the hard course. This is one where we get
Speaker 1: right into the detail. We count the grains of sand
Speaker 1: on the beach and have any move in which direction.
Speaker 1: We'll get to that in a moment or two time.
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what the thinking was behind Donald Trump
Speaker 1: and the way that things went down with Zelenski. We're
Speaker 1: going to talk to something in the United States, just
Speaker 1: in case you are not quite across why Trump has
Speaker 1: the worldview that he does and the people who support
Speaker 1: that particular worldview. And please the Prime minister trying to
Speaker 1: tell us that he's saving on cost of living because
Speaker 1: beer taxes won't go up for the next two years.
Speaker 1: They've gone a plenty in the past three years. Sixty
Speaker 1: five set of a bottle of Bundy rum is tax
Speaker 1: so feel free not to celebrate this particular one. The
Speaker 1: story that's going to be the dominant one in Australia
Speaker 1: outside of politics this week is going to be the
Speaker 1: cyclone that is going to be making its way to
Speaker 1: North Queensland. Now, this is the tropical cyclone Alfred, and
Speaker 1: the latest that we can see when it comes to
Speaker 1: the radar is that it is going to be making
Speaker 1: its way. Probably major effects are going to be felt
Speaker 1: in and around Thursday at its worst, but who knows,
Speaker 1: there's plenty of that happens between now and then. To
Speaker 1: put this into some perspective about how many people are
Speaker 1: going to be effected by all of the effects of
Speaker 1: a tropical cyclone, the Turmble Times puts it at four million,
Speaker 1: basically all Queenslanders who live anywhere near the coast. Here's
Speaker 1: the latest from our mates over It's Gone News weather.
Speaker 2: Tropical Cyclone Alfred generated some monster waves off the Queensland
Speaker 2: coast on Sunday, more than seven meters at Malula Bar.
Speaker 2: Tropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to remain a Category one
Speaker 2: storm on Monday, remaining some three hundred kilometers off the
Speaker 2: Queensland coast.
Speaker 3: The latest from the Weather Bureau from Tuesday there is
Speaker 3: an increasing risk that Alfred will turn west and track
Speaker 3: back towards the southeast Queensland or northern New South Wales coast,
Speaker 3: with the potential for it to make landfall at a
Speaker 3: category up to Category two system on Thursday. A tropical
Speaker 3: cyclone may be issued as early as Monday.
Speaker 1: We'll give you all the updates twenty four to seven
Speaker 1: on the Weather Channel and make sure that you make
Speaker 1: sky news dot com that are you your homepage. So
Speaker 1: the election has not been called this weekend, so we
Speaker 1: wait another week. The Prime Minister, among other things, was
Speaker 1: the Mardi Gras last night in Sydney and the speculation
Speaker 1: now turns to when will he call the election.
Speaker 4: Going to an election in May is very much a
Speaker 4: live option, despite speculation to the contrary. The dates being
Speaker 4: considered that April twelve, May three and May ten. I
Speaker 4: understand the decision has been made not to go with
Speaker 4: the last possible election date that the PM could call
Speaker 4: it May seventeen.
Speaker 1: But the reality for us is that in an election year
Speaker 1: means all hands on deck, which is why we're here
Speaker 1: tonight and we will be right at the front of
Speaker 1: things between now and when the election is called. Full
Speaker 1: coverage of course throughout the days and here in primetime,
Speaker 1: and then we hit our absolute straps. Between now and
Speaker 1: election day, pub tests planned all over the country, as
Speaker 1: well as plenty of other special features, including this Sunday night.
Speaker 1: I want this to be a destination for you for
Speaker 1: a reset. Each and every week. We might just talk
Speaker 1: about the polls. We'll talk about the tactics. We'll talk
Speaker 1: about what they are they aren't doing, and what we
Speaker 1: might be hearing behind the scenes. Now, as we know,
Speaker 1: the Prime Minister finds a way to announce half a
Speaker 1: billion dollars a day. He's spending is now in the
Speaker 1: tens of billions of dollars for some reason, the press
Speaker 1: gallery I never asked the Liberal Party where the money
Speaker 1: is going to come from. The question should be being
Speaker 1: asked to the Prime Minister as well. But we all
Speaker 1: know that the benefit of the doubt for the establishment
Speaker 1: media is to keep the establishment firmly in place.
Speaker 5: The great benefit of these meeting care urgent care clinics
Speaker 5: is taking pressure of cost of living for families. They're
Speaker 5: also meaning that people can get the care they need
Speaker 5: when they need it, and all they need is the
Speaker 5: Settle Green card here. All they need is their Medicare card,
Speaker 5: not their credit card.
Speaker 1: Of course, this is a debate about what. This is
Speaker 1: a debate against which Remember the opposition just last week
Speaker 1: said that they would match dollar for dollar and an
Speaker 1: extra five hundred million dollars when it comes to Medicare.
Speaker 1: So while the Prime Minister wants to turn that card
Speaker 1: into a prop they both agree on not just keeping
Speaker 1: the current system but improving it. For the Opposition, they
Speaker 1: chose national defense as their focus today, with a plan
Speaker 1: to spend billions of dollars on more planes that theoretically
Speaker 1: would be able to go and find out what Chinese
Speaker 1: warships are doing. But of course it's not as exciting
Speaker 1: for the Prime Minister because he's got to stand in
Speaker 1: front of the brand that Bob Hawk launched, because you know,
Speaker 1: he's the new Hawky.
Speaker 6: Look, we're committing to an additional three billion dollars of
Speaker 6: expenditure today to secure that fourth squadron, and we will
Speaker 6: negotiate the costs of not only the aircraft but all
Speaker 6: the ancillary capabilities that need to support it once we're
Speaker 6: in government.
Speaker 1: Now it is no surprise that every poll for the
Speaker 1: past few years has told us the number one issue
Speaker 1: in the country is cost of living. The Prime Minister
Speaker 1: wants to pretend that they are doing something about it,
Speaker 1: but they of course promised that they would make everything
Speaker 1: better three years ago. Instead, we all know it's worse.
Speaker 1: Take your pick, be it the stuff you buy at
Speaker 1: the shop, the insurance that you have, or how much
Speaker 1: you are paying off in the tens of thousands of
Speaker 1: dollars extra on your home loan. But don't know, let's
Speaker 1: all talk about medicare as if that is the single
Speaker 1: biggest concern for Australians. It is about changing the subject
Speaker 1: one from where the government is about to get its
Speaker 1: backside handed to it to the one that they think
Speaker 1: they're able to make this election about. It is, of
Speaker 1: course not up to the government what the election is about.
Speaker 1: It's you, and it's also up to the Opposition to
Speaker 1: pull the subject back to where the majority of Australians are.
Speaker 1: I repeat every time the Prime Minister talks about medicare
Speaker 1: you should remember that the federal opposition has promised to
Speaker 1: not just match eight point five billion dollars, but are
Speaker 1: going to spend nine billion dollars. If you doubt, you
Speaker 1: can feel free to go to the Liberal Party website.
Speaker 1: You can read the announcement yourself. It is there, I
Speaker 1: promise it is there. Of all the times for it
Speaker 1: not to work. But you get my point. That is
Speaker 1: the plan, that is the promise. Remember, legislation was passed
Speaker 1: back in the Morrison government about defending and making sure
Speaker 1: Medicare was in place, So all of this pretending that
Speaker 1: Medicare is under threat is literally made up. It is
Speaker 1: an attempt to change the subject. And most of the
Speaker 1: media will follow on. I'll get to the way the
Speaker 1: media treated the excise on alcohol discussion in a moment
Speaker 1: or two time. But Jim Charmers is one who was,
Speaker 1: of course trying to make the most of the talking
Speaker 1: points because his hope would be that the Albanezi government
Speaker 1: goes from a majority to a minority and then he
Speaker 1: would humably at some point take the advice of people
Speaker 1: like nasty Nicky Sava and become the Prime Minister in
Speaker 1: the next three years. So he sings off the song
Speaker 1: sheet that wheneveryone asked a question, somehow make it about
Speaker 1: Peter Dutton and Mediicare.
Speaker 7: Medicare is not safe in Peter Dutton's hands. Medicare is
Speaker 7: not safe from the guy who, when he was Health Minister,
Speaker 7: tried to destroy universal Medicare.
Speaker 1: It didn't happen, did not happen, did not attempt to happen. Remember,
Speaker 1: the entire basis of their campaign is a Frankenstein little
Speaker 1: bit of tape where they literally cut words out of
Speaker 1: it and make up a sentence about support or lack
Speaker 1: thereof in the case that they're trying to build about
Speaker 1: Peter Dutton. But the Redbridge Pole, which is a rolling
Speaker 1: pole of the marginal seats, does give us an idea
Speaker 1: about what is working and what is not. Now, after
Speaker 1: a full week of the opposition not getting out there
Speaker 1: aggressively enough to say we're not just matching with are
Speaker 1: doing better, there has been a little change in the
Speaker 1: priority of Australians when it comes to this upcoming election. Now,
Speaker 1: the cost of living is still the absolute number one
Speaker 1: issue at eighty two percent, but you can see that
Speaker 1: lots of other issues have fallen away, but healthcare, housing,
Speaker 1: climate change, and crime and responsibility and public safety have
Speaker 1: all gone up. So the attempt to change the subject
Speaker 1: is starting to work on the margins which brings me
Speaker 1: to some tough love for the people who I win
Speaker 1: this election. Now Peter Dutton and his team, of course,
Speaker 1: are trying to put together not just an alternative view
Speaker 1: for where they want to take the country, but they
Speaker 1: also have to prosecute and finish the case about how
Speaker 1: bad this government is. I think it's simple because remember
Speaker 1: they promised everything would be better. Everything got worse. So
Speaker 1: now the government turns around and says, oh on, it
Speaker 1: will be really worse under the other guy. Now, yes,
Speaker 1: we're hiring somebody for the next three years, but you
Speaker 1: must pass judgment on a government for the previous three years.
Speaker 1: Has to say. The government's doing all it can to
Speaker 1: make Peter Dutton the issue because they think they'll be
Speaker 1: able to do to Peter Dutton what's got Morrison was
Speaker 1: able to do to Bill Shorten.
Speaker 7: Peter Dutton is such a reckless and risky proposition is
Speaker 7: because when he sees the vision in our society, he
Speaker 7: tries to exacerbate it and make it worse for political purposes.
Speaker 1: What chares did he buy? How much did he buy
Speaker 1: them for?
Speaker 8: Did he have access to privileged, confidential, informational people who.
Speaker 9: Did knows in his heart and doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
Speaker 7: Peter Duttman the Liberals who would make people worse off
Speaker 7: and take Australia backwards peed.
Speaker 9: Dunton and his colleagues had a fair bit to say
Speaker 9: about the Prime Minister buying one house last year. Well
Speaker 9: see what he's got to say about the twenty six
Speaker 9: homes that he's bought and sold over the last couple
Speaker 9: of decades, some of which he hasn't.
Speaker 1: Declared these people. The problem with the Prime Minister buying
Speaker 1: a four point something million dollar house in the middle
Speaker 1: of a cost of living crisis is fairly obvious about
Speaker 1: why Australians had a problem with it. This is a
Speaker 1: guy who's already setting himself up for a retirement because
Speaker 1: ultimately it doesn't matter what happens to him at the election,
Speaker 1: because he will still retire on hundreds of thousands of dollars,
Speaker 1: not to mention his own property portfolio, which brings him
Speaker 1: a income on top of his Prime minister or salary
Speaker 1: of six hundred thousand dollars a year of one hundred
Speaker 1: and forty thousand dollars. Now it's okay to be a
Speaker 1: property investor in Australia. But they have tried any and
Speaker 1: everything to again change the subject and create some sort
Speaker 1: of dodginess around Peter Dutton. Philip Couri writes about this
Speaker 1: interestingly today in the Weekend Financial Review. None of this
Speaker 1: pesky detail seems to matter, that being that the stories
Speaker 1: are all garbage. The object here is to fill in
Speaker 1: the blanks for voters who have well formed views of Albanzi,
Speaker 1: whether they be ill or otherwise, but are just starting
Speaker 1: to get their heads around Peter Dutton. Remember, of course,
Speaker 1: you make it, Jos to break up with the government
Speaker 1: before you turn your attention to who you want to
Speaker 1: spend the next three years with. The spin from Labor
Speaker 1: is that Dutton falsely affected a working class chic and
Speaker 1: share by buyap and property portfolio exposes that he is
Speaker 1: not really that person. But of course the Prime Minister
Speaker 1: is able to pretend that he's still the boy from
Speaker 1: the Housing Commission joint, when of course he is now
Speaker 1: a man with millions of dollars of assets to his
Speaker 1: name via property, and of course has received massive pay
Speaker 1: rises and of course gets free upgrades even on the travel,
Speaker 1: which he is not doing for the taxpayer. We all
Speaker 1: know which one is the actual silvertar. We know which
Speaker 1: one is actually the social climb, and we already know
Speaker 1: which one is actually the fraud in terms of the
Speaker 1: personality that they have put forward in front of the
Speaker 1: Australian people. But the simple question is this, when does
Speaker 1: the Liberal Party fight back? When does the Liberal Party
Speaker 1: start to run hard at Albanesi? Where are the posters
Speaker 1: that are telling people in each and every electorate how
Speaker 1: much mortgage repayments in that electorate have gone up under Albanesi.
Speaker 1: Where is the social media that is all day every
Speaker 1: day hammering home points. Where is the major speeches. The
Speaker 1: reality is is that this is a very beatable government.
Speaker 1: The polls show that there are plenty of Australians who
Speaker 1: have had it up to here with the government. They
Speaker 1: do not buy that they believe that the country is
Speaker 1: headed in the right direction. Instead it's in the opposite direction.
Speaker 1: And the reality is that while Dunton is keen to
Speaker 1: say that he's not going to be Aussie Trump because
Speaker 1: the effect on Teal seats and moderate voters would of
Speaker 1: course set their hair on fire, the reality is that
Speaker 1: in terms of some of the polls, albo Is Ossie,
Speaker 1: Joe Biden just thirty four percent of Australians believe this
Speaker 1: government deserves to be re elected. Now that does mean
Speaker 1: that people from the far left and those people in
Speaker 1: the center and on the center right are all of
Speaker 1: one view, which is this mob has to go. Why
Speaker 1: because they promised a better world, they delivered a worse one.
Speaker 1: And now they turn around and expect credit for delivering
Speaker 1: two little too late tax cuts, giving power bill relief
Speaker 1: in exchange for actually changing the two hundred and seventy
Speaker 1: five dollars that was promised, not to mention a disgraceful
Speaker 1: reality that under the boy from Housing Commission, three million
Speaker 1: people are this close to homelessness and three and a
Speaker 1: bit million people don't know where all of their meals
Speaker 1: will come from this week. Apart from the personality, apart
Speaker 1: from the decision making, it is not up to the
Speaker 1: media to define Anthony Abernezi. It is up to his
Speaker 1: political opponents. And I'm sure that there is some wonderful
Speaker 1: plan that will kick in the day that an election
Speaker 1: is called. But the whole game of the Prime Minister
Speaker 1: not calling an election or hinting that one might be
Speaker 1: called this weekend for nothing to happen, is that if
Speaker 1: the Liberal Party is holding its fire for the start
Speaker 1: of an election campaign. They give the Prime Minister days
Speaker 1: and days which become weeks and weeks to announce policies
Speaker 1: that he has no money for, or to invent scare
Speaker 1: campaigns that have no basis in fact, or to release
Speaker 1: the dirt files on the opposition. Now, again, I'm not
Speaker 1: a participant in Australian politics. I am an observer of it.
Speaker 1: But if this government is going to go from a
Speaker 1: majority to a minority, to potentially the Liberal Party being
Speaker 1: able to fight from quite a position back to getting
Speaker 1: anywhere near a minority, they have to start fighting harder,
Speaker 1: more visibly. They have to be releasing more ads, they
Speaker 1: have to have a sharper message when it comes to
Speaker 1: social media, and they cannot afford to take a single
Speaker 1: day off in terms of the fight. Because Australians are
Speaker 1: ready for a change, but we need to make sure
Speaker 1: that the people who are trying to effect that change
Speaker 1: are as hungry as those of us that would like
Speaker 1: to see it. Now, I know there are smart people
Speaker 1: that are hard working that will be very pissed off
Speaker 1: that I'm even saying what I am saying, But what
Speaker 1: I am saying is that I saw what Trump was
Speaker 1: able to do to Biden. He did it not over
Speaker 1: thirty three days, but he did it over thirty three weeks.
Speaker 1: He did it over essentially the best part of two
Speaker 1: of the four years of that presidency. And the Opposition
Speaker 1: has made a case where according to some polls, there
Speaker 1: are plenty of people that are willing to make a change,
Speaker 1: but don't wait for the election to be called. Imagine
Speaker 1: it has already been called, not just when it comes
Speaker 1: to the big ideas, but the big attacks. Because this
Speaker 1: Prime Minister has a glass jaw, he will not be
Speaker 1: able to keep his emotions in check. He still thinks
Speaker 1: that he's fighting against Scott Morrison, and he's the Opposition
Speaker 1: leader who has no responsibility so can continue to tell
Speaker 1: you that everything will be better despite the fact that
Speaker 1: on his watch everything got worse. Not to mention his
Speaker 1: response when it comes to our national security and China
Speaker 1: circumnavigating Australia with warships, it's unacceptable, it is not okay,
Speaker 1: and it is time to go full bore, full bore,
Speaker 1: release every and anything you have, and do it every
Speaker 1: single day. If it's thirty three, if it's forty three
Speaker 1: or it's fifty three days. It does not matter because
Speaker 1: the remember the reality in Australia is that more than
Speaker 1: half of all people will vote two weeks before election day.
Speaker 1: Australians vote early, which means the election camp, if it
Speaker 1: is to officially start in two weeks, well, the full
Speaker 1: thirty three days starts now. So let's get to some
Speaker 1: of the latest polling, which is around tonight what we
Speaker 1: will get into in chapter and verse with our great team,
Speaker 1: and we'll get to them in a moment or two's time,
Speaker 1: of course, cos Samaris from red Bridge and the great
Speaker 1: Michael Kroger, who may well have you a little pushback
Speaker 1: or agree with what I've had to say here. So interestingly,
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago the Coalition was in striking
Speaker 1: distance of twenty seats. Now that would actually take them
Speaker 1: very close to, if not a majority government. Well now
Speaker 1: two weeks later, Labour seems to have clawed back some ground.
Speaker 1: What was fifty one forty nine in some seats has
Speaker 1: now flipped the other way to Labour fifty one forty nine.
Speaker 1: And the scenario here is worth paying attention to about
Speaker 1: why the Libs must fight and fight hard now Labour's
Speaker 1: primary vote up one point, Liberal National down to Greens
Speaker 1: hold the line, others they are up. In terms of
Speaker 1: two party preferred, there has been one and a half
Speaker 1: points that have changed in just two weeks now. Whether
Speaker 1: that is the interest rates or not, and there's some
Speaker 1: polling evidence suggests it is not, or it's the Meny
Speaker 1: scare campaign or anything else. Labour would love the idea
Speaker 1: of going into an election at fifty zo point five
Speaker 1: to forty nine point five because most likely the deals
Speaker 1: wouldn't be moving and not enough seats would move for
Speaker 1: the Liberal Party to get even close when it comes
Speaker 1: to a minority government. Again, let's get into this here.
Speaker 1: The Reserve Bank, does it make you more likely or
Speaker 1: less likely or no difference? Sixty five percent of people
Speaker 1: say the interest rate change no difference. The percentage of
Speaker 1: workers who think that the country is headed in the
Speaker 1: right direction. Two weeks ago, that was twenty seven. It's
Speaker 1: now up to thirty three. Wrong direction fifty five now
Speaker 1: down to fifty percent. Let's get into the conversation right
Speaker 1: now with Cos Samaras from red Bridge. They're the ones
Speaker 1: who put it all together. Michael Kroger, a legend of
Speaker 1: Liberal party politics, lots to get to and what we
Speaker 1: call the state of the race each and every Sunday
Speaker 1: night one for the hard course. Lads, love you to
Speaker 1: see you both, all right, cause looking at this has
Speaker 1: been a change, and whether the change is just a
Speaker 1: little bit here and a little bit there. It goes
Speaker 1: from the Libs threatening minority government to now the conversation
Speaker 1: simply being about whether labor how deep it goes into
Speaker 1: minority government. Big change in two weeks. Yep.
Speaker 10: One team's on the field and the other one's in
Speaker 10: the locker room. And it's been in the locker room
Speaker 10: for the last three weeks, and whilst watching the other team,
Speaker 10: being the labor team, kick the number of goals one
Speaker 10: after the other, and they've been building momentum. It's the
Speaker 10: interest rate cut, it's the Waler bailout, it's Medicare, it's
Speaker 10: now clinics. And of course you know the coalition today
Speaker 10: rebounds from that by promising more jets, which is fine,
Speaker 10: but that's not what we're picking up in our research, right,
Speaker 10: And so it does appear that the coalition is he's
Speaker 10: very flat footed and he's allowing Albanisi to really build
Speaker 10: some significant momentum here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Michael, this is what I'm noticing here, right, you
Speaker 1: know what outcome I want. But the reality is I
Speaker 1: think that the Libs are waiting for a date rather
Speaker 1: than get on with it now fight it like it's
Speaker 1: the last week of the campaign. Now. Yeah.
Speaker 11: Well, you know I respect cousin Tony Barry very much, indeed,
Speaker 11: and I'm always very inot to see this stuff, which
Speaker 11: is usually very accurate. So how do I explain what's happened?
Speaker 11: I think it's probably a dead cat bounce off the
Speaker 11: back of the interest rate cuss which everyone was waiting for.
Speaker 11: And don't forget. You know, amongst most people, costs are
Speaker 11: living is the only issue. So anything that helps is
Speaker 11: gridded with great joy. Whether that momentum can be continued,
Speaker 11: I don't think so, But I think you're right. Albanize's
Speaker 11: certainly out of the blocks. There's a long way to go, though,
Speaker 11: and he's already run out of other people's money. He
Speaker 11: seems to be spending billions every week. There's a point
Speaker 11: at which people say, hey, mate, this fast has got
Speaker 11: to end. I mean, he is partly adopting the Daniel
Speaker 11: Andrews strategy of Aden and which is bug of the public.
Speaker 11: Just spend, spend, spend, promise them everything, roads, bridges, rail hospital,
Speaker 11: just promise everything, get over line and leave the debt
Speaker 11: to the next government two or three terms down the track.
Speaker 11: That's what Albo's doing at the minute. That's your strategy.
Speaker 11: It's worked in the past. Whether it works for federally,
Speaker 11: I very much doubt it because people pay a lot
Speaker 11: more attention to federal budgets they do state budgets, and
Speaker 11: I don't think the dead cat bounce will last.
Speaker 1: All right. This is again to hammer home my point here.
Speaker 1: Prime Minister made an announcement which on the face of
Speaker 1: it you've got to support because it's going to be
Speaker 1: no increase in beer taxes for the next two years.
Speaker 1: This is how the media followed this. Now, by the way,
Speaker 1: the Labor Party obviously more than happy to try to
Speaker 1: cloak itself in the past of Robert James Lee Hawk right,
Speaker 1: And there is a particular beer which has his face
Speaker 1: on it. It operates in and around the Prime Minister's
Speaker 1: electric which means it's a lovely little photo opportunity. It's
Speaker 1: a chance for a little bit of a nostalgia hit,
Speaker 1: which means the media going to go along and follow.
Speaker 1: He pours a beer, make the statement that we are
Speaker 1: going to freeze beer taxes for the next two years.
Speaker 1: The media, the media who should know better, do no better.
Speaker 1: This is how they reacted to it. Michael, you would
Speaker 1: love this coverage for a liberal candidate roll tape.
Speaker 2: Have a look in an early gift to himself and voters,
Speaker 2: Anthony Albanesi announcing a temporary pause to the draft beer excise.
Speaker 6: Anthony Albanzi announces he'll freeze the tax on draft beer
Speaker 6: for two years from August.
Speaker 1: I'll tell you why this pieced me off, because this bloke,
Speaker 1: in the three years he's been Prime Minister, has put
Speaker 1: up beer taxes at least twice. The Brewers Association, this
Speaker 1: is from their website, says that the record beert tax
Speaker 1: increase from the first of August twenty two fest to
Speaker 1: February twenty three is damaging Australian pubs and clubs. The
Speaker 1: increase in be attacks on February one, twenty three meant
Speaker 1: that beer taxes beer prices have gone up by eight
Speaker 1: cents in the past six months. Australians are now paying
Speaker 1: twenty dollars for every slab of beer and about ninety
Speaker 1: cents for every pint. What I find amazing, Michael, is
Speaker 1: that the bloke who has put the taxes up on
Speaker 1: beer every chance he's got in this term gets credit
Speaker 1: from the media for promising not to do it in
Speaker 1: the next term. Now that's because the media are more
Speaker 1: than happy as always to give the benefit of the government.
Speaker 1: But where the hell was the opposition making the point
Speaker 1: that I am making on television on Sunday night. Where
Speaker 1: were they pushing back because the fact that he got
Speaker 1: that rails run because look at the pictures of Hawkey
Speaker 1: is a disgrace.
Speaker 11: Well, I don't know whether where I was out for dinner,
Speaker 11: so I mister Paul might have been there, but I'm
Speaker 11: not sure what they said, A bit like I saw
Speaker 11: missing your trip to Vegas. By the way, we're still
Speaker 11: we're still ready to go, mate, but I think the
Speaker 11: trip's over look. This is this is this is a
Speaker 11: one day story. Okay, this is not anything substantial for election.
Speaker 11: Elections tend to run on themes. Right, you can win
Speaker 11: one day's press.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 11: The one thing a politics you can never do is
Speaker 11: is you know, think that if I win the day's press.
Speaker 11: I won the war, and I've seen so many politicians
Speaker 11: believe that there are thematics to elections. Right, what is
Speaker 11: the thematic about this election?
Speaker 1: Mate?
Speaker 11: The thematic is simply this. I boil it down to
Speaker 11: this simple question. Do I think a majority of Australians
Speaker 11: want the next three years to be like the last
Speaker 11: three years? Right? That is the only question that matters.
Speaker 1: The beer tax? Mate?
Speaker 11: Is is you know like yesterday's newspapers. That's the only
Speaker 11: thing that matters made And I.
Speaker 1: Agree, but you know, sorry, go on, no, no, I agree,
Speaker 1: because my point on this is is that when you
Speaker 1: add a day on top of a day, on top
Speaker 1: of a day on top of a day, then it
Speaker 1: means you get to turn around and say, hey, look
Speaker 1: at all of this stuff. Right, The immediate response should
Speaker 1: be with such aggression to cool out the bs, to say,
Speaker 1: now he wants a present when he's made your pint.
Speaker 1: It's more expensive. Did you know that every time you
Speaker 1: buy a slaber beer, twenty dollars of that is tax
Speaker 1: for elbow And that has to be the arm wrestle
Speaker 1: of each and every day. And because that's my point,
Speaker 1: which is that when you're going to sit and have
Speaker 1: focus groups in a week's time, and the Prime Minister says, now,
Speaker 1: even though the detail of a tax cut was fourteen
Speaker 1: dollars a week for people in and around forty thousand
Speaker 1: dollars right, even though the reality of the power price
Speaker 1: thing is it's twenty five dollars a month. Even though
Speaker 1: the reality of the beer situation is that we're talking
Speaker 1: about a few cents into the future. He's going to
Speaker 1: point to it as a list of things when the
Speaker 1: opposition doesn't have a list of anything. That's my point.
Speaker 10: The absence a lot of an alternity absolutely. I mean
Speaker 10: having said that, I mean the promise to freeze the
Speaker 10: tax now, the medicare announcement. Now, when we talked about
Speaker 10: is they know why there's an election, so you know,
Speaker 10: they are very cynical and they think that this is
Speaker 10: all about just trying to get their vote. What's missing
Speaker 10: is going to your broader point, and that is what's
Speaker 10: missing is an alternative. He's done offering an alternative. Is
Speaker 10: Dutton's plan going to be different? Is Dutton's plan going
Speaker 10: to offer a different world compared to the last three
Speaker 10: years the people have experienced And so far we're hearing crickets, right,
Speaker 10: So all he has to do is stump up a
Speaker 10: plan and particularly run the economy. And if it does that,
Speaker 10: maybe some of these stunts won't work. But if in
Speaker 10: absence of that, it'll just keep running along. And yes,
Speaker 10: you'll keep building a momentum. But it's really up to
Speaker 10: Peter Dunton and actually stop it.
Speaker 1: As I say, we are observers, not participants, are right,
Speaker 1: And you know advice is free and all the rest
Speaker 1: of it, and it's worth what they pay for. But
Speaker 1: you know, as a passionate observer, you can see when
Speaker 1: momentum starts to move and it is very hard to
Speaker 1: flip it back. All right, Yes, this is giant percentage
Speaker 1: of people who won't pay attention. All the rest of
Speaker 1: it is eventually when the zeitgeist changes. And what a
Speaker 1: week is a long time in politics, imagine what you
Speaker 1: know at least four or five six weeks might end
Speaker 1: up being so because about when you have a chat
Speaker 1: to people about these promises and multi billion this and that.
Speaker 1: One of the reasons why they might want to avoid
Speaker 1: a budget is because they don't want to show the numbers.
Speaker 1: The reality of many of these things is as soon
Speaker 1: as I hear the word investment, it's code for off
Speaker 1: budget money, which is how they hired the actual spending here.
Speaker 1: But to Michael's point, which was, you know, it proved
Speaker 1: electorally successful in the short term, but in the long
Speaker 1: term it becomes disastrous. Victoria is now the worst place
Speaker 1: for the Labor Party around the country. You know, a
Speaker 1: huge difference in two party preferred they're compared to anywhere else.
Speaker 1: So once, you know, once the bill comes in, people
Speaker 1: have the Harry hits. But until the bill comes in,
Speaker 1: you know, they might they might think somehow this has
Speaker 1: all been pre budgeted for. Does anyone in your focus
Speaker 1: groups say where is the money coming from? Because it
Speaker 1: feels like that's an essential question that Labor wants to
Speaker 1: ask of the opposition, but somebody should be asking it
Speaker 1: of the government.
Speaker 10: Yeah, look in the two big states, it's is still
Speaker 10: a very sensitive point and it wasn't a few years ago. So,
Speaker 10: you know, going back to Michael's point about a strategy
Speaker 10: in twenty eighteen in Victoria from the Andres government. At
Speaker 10: that time, you know, the economy was bubbling along really
Speaker 10: well and people work. We didn't have much personal pain
Speaker 10: when it came to their own economic situation because of
Speaker 10: now the inflationary crisis and everything that everyone's going through.
Speaker 10: They are acutely aware of what happens when governments run
Speaker 10: out of money, particularly Victoria. So in Victoria, yes, our
Speaker 10: pole does indicate a tightening of the race, but based
Speaker 10: on the numbers that we're seeing in Victoria, labor's still
Speaker 10: heading for an absolute wipeout in that state at a
Speaker 10: better level. That's mainly because of the state budget, but
Speaker 10: also obviously people have been a lot more a tune
Speaker 10: in that state to what happens when you're not careful
Speaker 10: with the budget, and so hence I think some of
Speaker 10: the promises that are going on right now at a
Speaker 10: federal level won't fix the problem labor has in Victoria,
Speaker 10: which is up to six seats.
Speaker 1: Well, and what about the scenario with the Victorian government,
Speaker 1: Michael this weekend. They're big and bold and brilliant. Idea
Speaker 1: is to let school age children where ankle monitors, because
Speaker 1: they may well have been found guilty of crimes, will
Speaker 1: be going through the justice system, and not to go
Speaker 1: to a special school for the naughty kids. No, no,
Speaker 1: they sit in the same classroom as your kids, all right,
Speaker 1: So I know that the album Easy System would basically
Speaker 1: like the Victorian government to just go storm, go on holidays,
Speaker 1: go for a bender in Vegas. I didn't go for
Speaker 1: a bender in Vegas, but you get the point, right,
Speaker 1: bugger off for forty four days because seriously, to see
Speaker 1: that announcement and again it adds to bugger this Victoria labor.
Speaker 1: And I get what the posters will be, you know,
Speaker 1: a black and white foddo with Albo and Allen and
Speaker 1: send the message about I get all of that. But
Speaker 1: let's have a look at some of these seats, particularly
Speaker 1: in around Victoria, because those numbers what James Campbell also
Speaker 1: focused in on today when he was writing about this poll,
Speaker 1: which is Aston Chisholm McEwen, Bruce, Dunkley, Hawk, Karngamite and
Speaker 1: Holt the first of that group. If we can show them,
Speaker 1: guys are the ones that are on track to lose.
Speaker 1: Be great to see Julian Hill bye bye. But let's
Speaker 1: see and let's have a look here at some of
Speaker 1: those other ones. But that's the picture in Victoria. So
Speaker 1: what are you seeing there and what's missing off the
Speaker 1: list there? Michael?
Speaker 11: So we won nine seats from Lavery nineteen ninety. I'm
Speaker 11: just looking at that list the nineteen ninety we won Aston,
Speaker 11: we won Chisholm, we won McEwen. I think we won Dunky.
Speaker 11: We also warn Coronella, Ballarat, Bendy Go and a couple
Speaker 11: of others as well. So it's possible there's another two
Speaker 11: or three there in addition to those five that they've
Speaker 11: got there. So what's happening in Victoria is this The
Speaker 11: public here have woken up to debt A right causes
Speaker 11: right in eighteen it wasn't such a big deal. But
Speaker 11: Andrews spent one hundred billion defeating Matthew Guy in eighteen
Speaker 11: and twenty two, and people thought, this guy Andrews is
Speaker 11: a strong leader. Money's free, it's no problem. We canna
Speaker 11: have a hospital. We're going to have everything here in Victoria.
Speaker 11: That's what Andrews said. Fast forward to twenty twenty four,
Speaker 11: people are now saying hang on. When Dennis Napthlin left
Speaker 11: office in two thousand and forty, in the last Liberal premiere,
Speaker 11: state debt was twenty billion, two zero. Soon it's going
Speaker 11: to be one hundred and eighty eight billion. So people
Speaker 11: who have now worked out hang on labor basically bankrupt
Speaker 11: us in Victoria. I mean this just Cinder Allen and
Speaker 11: Daniel Andrews have bankrotered us to the point where Ja
Speaker 11: Cindra Allen made our premier. Yere, I don't know who
Speaker 11: you've caught up with this. She's going to start our
Speaker 11: own doze here in Victoria. She's sacking three thousand public
Speaker 11: servants because the public service is too big. She's got
Speaker 11: to save money, so she's sacking three thousand public servants.
Speaker 11: So effectively, what's happening in the foundation of Albanesi's problems
Speaker 11: Victoria is the massive unpopularity of the state labor government,
Speaker 11: very similar to nineteen ninety when a massively unpopular labor government.
Speaker 11: Cane Kern, who'd also bankrubb to Victoria and Jeff Kennett
Speaker 11: now on Stockdale had to fix it up very similar circumstances,
Speaker 11: and so you know there was a five point one
Speaker 11: percent swing against labor in the nineteen ninety election. Here
Speaker 11: in Victoria, I noticed cousin Tony Barry stats have got
Speaker 11: an eight and a half. Helloloja, I hope you're right there, mate,
Speaker 11: because they could catapult Dutton into the prime minister ship
Speaker 11: on his own eight and a half percent though that
Speaker 11: is a very big number in a general election. That's
Speaker 11: a massive number in a general election, so I hope,
Speaker 11: but yeah, Dutton can do very well here.
Speaker 1: Now again the joy by the way of this between
Speaker 1: now and the election, and may he delayed as long
Speaker 1: as long as he wants two segments of stair the
Speaker 1: race on Sunday nights. I can't get enough. We're counting
Speaker 1: the grains of sand. It's one for the super nerds,
Speaker 1: it's one for the political nutbags like myself, and we
Speaker 1: are going to go in hard with these fellows all
Speaker 1: the way the next way through, all right. So I
Speaker 1: want to talk about, say the set of Dunkley as
Speaker 1: an example of what is being counted as it may be,
Speaker 1: but what the reality of what would have to change. Now.
Speaker 1: I know there's a difference between a general election number
Speaker 1: and a by election number, but the margin of difference
Speaker 1: between on two party preferred the Liberal Party and the
Speaker 1: Labor Party in the seat of Dunkley is nine hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty six people. So because when you are looking
Speaker 1: at the stats and the numbers inside the numbers, inside
Speaker 1: the numbers, when we see a one point here or
Speaker 1: a one point there, when you've got something like five
Speaker 1: thousand people who need to change their mind in any
Speaker 1: one seat. Is one point enough for that? I know
Speaker 1: it's different in different states. I know that. You know
Speaker 1: the electric size is very different in Tasmania to Victoria.
Speaker 1: But if you want to start to at home be
Speaker 1: an amateur sort of predictor here if a one point change,
Speaker 1: would that be enough for nine hundred and twenty six
Speaker 1: votes to change?
Speaker 10: Yeah? See Melbourne and it is Melbourne, you know this
Speaker 10: is where all the action is.
Speaker 1: Going to be.
Speaker 10: Malve's a really peculiar place when it comes to an
Speaker 10: electric politics these days. So in the West Labor could
Speaker 10: lose a stack of oats and it will just spray
Speaker 10: to minor parties like I did at the wear of
Speaker 10: your by election, and there will be some increase in
Speaker 10: the Coalish and primary, but it won't be enough. Yes, However,
Speaker 10: in a seat like Dunkley in the southeastern parts of Melbourne,
Speaker 10: those people had a longer history of owning Liberal either
Speaker 10: their parents did or they have sometimes in their past.
Speaker 1: Good point, so.
Speaker 10: The Liberal primary the ceiling is much higher, or the
Speaker 10: floor is much much higher, so the Labour's primary can
Speaker 10: collapse and spray to minor parties and the Colason you
Speaker 10: can only get five percent. That's enough, that's.
Speaker 1: All you need.
Speaker 10: So you know we're seeing swings of ten percent on
Speaker 10: primary vote in some of these southeastern seats at the moment.
Speaker 10: Now you know, if you transport that over to the
Speaker 10: West of Melbourne, that could still.
Speaker 1: Be okay for labor.
Speaker 10: But in the East, the seat like Dunky, it's curtains.
Speaker 10: So that's the fundamentally that is the problem, and that
Speaker 10: is that the coalition will be in the forties. Labor
Speaker 10: will be in the thirties, probably in the low thirties
Speaker 10: in some of these seats unless something drastically happens out
Speaker 10: of there the course of the camp well.
Speaker 1: Also hence why my little idea, my little campaign idea, right,
Speaker 1: which is the posters not just of the face and
Speaker 1: the name, but in the seat of Dunky, mortgages cost
Speaker 1: x thousand dollars under elbow. Why does that matter? Because
Speaker 1: twenty nine percent of people own a house, twenty six
Speaker 1: percent rental house and above national average. Forty one percent
Speaker 1: of people have a mortgage. Rest of Victoria thirty six,
Speaker 1: rest of the country thirty five. That's why it matters,
Speaker 1: all right, not just cost of a living, but that
Speaker 1: mortgage thing matters. Okay, pay attention. We're counting the grains
Speaker 1: of the sand and we're currently up to four five
Speaker 1: and twenty five in just this one little handful. All right,
Speaker 1: quick break back with more here on Paul Murray life. Rosa.
Speaker 1: Marris is the man behind the Red Bridge organization. They know,
Speaker 1: just do polling. They're doing rolling polling, they're doing also
Speaker 1: focus group. He's got plenty of insights and lots of data.
Speaker 1: You know, we love the data. That is the brick
Speaker 1: in the wall that we build here. The opinion is
Speaker 1: the mortar. The man to help us with all of
Speaker 1: that is a great Michael Kroger, who's coming to Vegas
Speaker 1: when we go next year for as long as I
Speaker 1: possibly can. All Right, so be couse. I haven't read
Speaker 1: much about this, but I'm going to ask about the
Speaker 1: teals because Michael is as always on the edge of
Speaker 1: his seat to see if there's any indication anywhere of
Speaker 1: a bit of a change, because if there is, then
Speaker 1: that's a couple more For the Libs. What if anything,
Speaker 1: are you seeing at this moment in the second phase
Speaker 1: of your polling, and it will happen every couple of
Speaker 1: weeks and then every week during the campaign about Teals.
Speaker 10: Yeah, this is an interesting question, right because we're focusing
Speaker 10: on the Labor Coalition contest, but there's going to be
Speaker 10: another contest. There's going to have an enormous impact on
Speaker 10: who gets to about seventy to seventy one seats because
Speaker 10: at the moment both majors are not getting seventy six
Speaker 10: and obviously this is the largest group of the Teal
Speaker 10: independence so where could they possibly blulue seats? So we're
Speaker 10: looking at a seat like Curtain in Perth, and we're
Speaker 10: looking at a seat like Goldstein in Melbourne where the
Speaker 10: numbers are very tight, and that's where if there's something
Speaker 10: going to happen and the the political order will flip,
Speaker 10: it will be there. However, in seat like Bradfield in Sydney,
Speaker 10: Tills could pick up a seat. I agree, right, And
Speaker 10: the don't don't let's not ignore the federal seat of Monash.
Speaker 10: The Russell Broadbands running it is an independent and there's
Speaker 10: a Till independent run there as well, and they're exchanging preferences.
Speaker 10: So it's going to be an interesting contest because it's
Speaker 10: so there's a there's another war going on, and it's
Speaker 10: on the flanks, and that's that's for the liberal versus
Speaker 10: independent contest. But obviously we can talk about the green
Speaker 10: side of it.
Speaker 1: Too well and again, and there's there's deeper data, deeper
Speaker 1: information that's not been published. I'm not going to make
Speaker 1: reference to it with any greater specificity than this. In
Speaker 1: six of the twenty seats that you are following, the
Speaker 1: other vote is above twenty percent. In some of them
Speaker 1: it's twenty five twenty six. That is extraordinary that a
Speaker 1: quarter of the electorate. Now other does mean and you've
Speaker 1: already got Greens, so this is outside of labor liberal Greens.
Speaker 1: And again in places like Queensland that might be one nation,
Speaker 1: we know that they're running nationally in things like Newspole
Speaker 1: it's something like nine percent, right, so that they're going
Speaker 1: to be a factor the UAP or Trumpet's thing. Will
Speaker 1: all see what happens that other number. When you I
Speaker 1: mean again, you can't, you're not going to bend the
Speaker 1: numbers we try to understand them. Does other also mean undecided?
Speaker 1: When we are talking about looking at some poles at
Speaker 1: the moment that clearly there's not going to be a
Speaker 1: twenty five percent vote in places that are very traditionally
Speaker 1: red or blue.
Speaker 10: Look, it could be right, And so I mean at
Speaker 10: the last S election we had five point two million
Speaker 10: people who didn't vote for the majors. But what we're
Speaker 10: picking up is an incredibly soft vote, incredibly sizable soft vote,
Speaker 10: particularly within Labour's base. So though the polls are our y,
Speaker 10: the primary vote for particular Labor, but also to a
Speaker 10: lesser extent the coalition is extremely soft. There's a lot
Speaker 10: of voters that are just looking for something else to
Speaker 10: do with their vote. And this is where I think
Speaker 10: the election campaign could actually impact. You know, normally I
Speaker 10: would go to the down the doctrine of running a
Speaker 10: campaign for three months, because you know, you can't change
Speaker 10: the result in thirty days. But in this instance, there's
Speaker 10: so many people up for grabs that I think you
Speaker 10: can so he That's why I think the next thirty
Speaker 10: odd days or whenever that is, are going to be
Speaker 10: actually absolutely critical for the result.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so let's talk about that. If you're running the machine,
Speaker 1: if you're trying to trying to tighten up your voters, Michael,
Speaker 1: how does a party do that?
Speaker 11: So Mate, the messages have to be strong, and the
Speaker 11: leadership has to be strong, and the negative camp painting
Speaker 11: has to be strong. You know, occasionally there will be
Speaker 11: a time where you float into government because the previous
Speaker 11: government has expired, right, their time has expired, like like
Speaker 11: the Howard government did in two thousand and seven, Like
Speaker 11: you know, the South Australian government did after sixteen years,
Speaker 11: you know, you know, in the same hawk keeping expired
Speaker 11: in nineteen ninety six, et cetera, et cetera. So what
Speaker 11: you don't want, though, at a federal level is after
Speaker 11: one term to be thinking that way, because that's not
Speaker 11: what happens. You have to will people to vote for you,
Speaker 11: and you have to get them to vote against the
Speaker 11: other mob. Now, I think so much damage has been
Speaker 11: done by Alban easy to himself into his government with
Speaker 11: Wong and Bowen and all these characters, and I think
Speaker 11: you've got a weak treasurer. I think I think they're
Speaker 11: very vulnerable from their own performance. I mean, no one
Speaker 11: is saying it's been a great labor government. I mean,
Speaker 11: no one says that, right, No one says this is
Speaker 11: a hawk style government of you know, vote for them
Speaker 11: on the other and what does the opposition have to do.
Speaker 11: The opposition has to give people a very strong alternative. Now,
Speaker 11: Dutton has been very good. The reason Dunton gets a
Speaker 11: lot of plaudits and the reason he's in front of
Speaker 11: the polls is unlike a lot of politicians, he's actually
Speaker 11: had the courage to come out and say, I think
Speaker 11: we should have nuclear power in Australia. Very courageous policy.
Speaker 11: He's right, but god, it takes a lot of courage.
Speaker 11: I mean, if I think back to the Liberal leaders
Speaker 11: and others who've not been that strong on this issue.
Speaker 11: Very strong in immigration, right, very strong on Israel, very
Speaker 11: strong in government spending right. Dutton has given. Dunton has
Speaker 11: given a definition of who he is right and people
Speaker 11: know his background as a policemen, etc. So the answer
Speaker 11: to your question is, going forward to the election, more
Speaker 11: very strong messages on issues that are of relevance to people. So,
Speaker 11: you know, whilst you say Labor's had momentum over the
Speaker 11: last week, and I think that's fair to say, I'm
Speaker 11: absolutely certain that there's a lot of firepower in Dutton's locker.
Speaker 11: The other thing, just to what cause was saying, sorry, sorry,
Speaker 11: Paul Kuyong Tu, you on the Teal sets Will were fascinating.
Speaker 11: So three years ago in twenty twenty two, the two
Speaker 11: compelling reasons were three reasons where it wasn't the Morrison
Speaker 11: government we'd been there for nine years blah blah blah,
Speaker 11: but global warming and anti corruption where the big issues
Speaker 11: the Teals ran on. Now the Anti Corruption Commission is in,
Speaker 11: that's a zero issue. Global warming is now the major
Speaker 11: issue for in causes. Servage was fascinating today in the paper.
Speaker 11: Global warming is now only the main priority for seven
Speaker 11: percent of the electric So I'm wondering how that's going
Speaker 11: to affect the Teal vote. I mean, if you've got
Speaker 11: labor vote down the three big issues the Teal ran on,
Speaker 11: Morrison's gone any Corruption's not an issue, global warming seven percent?
Speaker 11: Doesn't that mean the Teals are in trouble in some
Speaker 11: of these seats. Seriously?
Speaker 1: Sure, because I'm imagining part of it is is the
Speaker 1: difference in the genders, right, Okay, so the Libs are
Speaker 1: leading by such a margin with the blokes. The Left
Speaker 1: is leading with women. This of course was the whole
Speaker 1: Harris thing. Right, there are more women voting than men,
Speaker 1: so therefore we're going to win well guess what greater
Speaker 1: break of men than Trump wins.
Speaker 10: Yeah, and there's still a lot of double heaters, as
Speaker 10: we would like to define him in his country, a
Speaker 10: lot of people who just don't like the majors anymore.
Speaker 10: They're different inner parts of our art cities. So progressive
Speaker 10: minded individuals are opting for those till independents, but now
Speaker 10: the suburbs opting for minor partners and in increasing numbers.
Speaker 10: You know, there isn't a Trump personality present in this country.
Speaker 10: One that, you know, is something that I think some
Speaker 10: of these Australians will vote for, and hence they a
Speaker 10: lot of these voters are now just shopping around looking
Speaker 10: for an alternative, can't quite find one. Some which just
Speaker 10: end up voting for the majors because that's all they
Speaker 10: think they can do. Some will vote for independence and
Speaker 10: minor parties. So the appetite, therefroent for something other than
Speaker 10: the Coles and wo Worths of politics is huge. It's
Speaker 10: just that there isn't really allowed a stage for any
Speaker 10: any of that sort of hunger, so to speak.
Speaker 1: Good stuff, Thank you labs. I love our chats and
Speaker 1: especially the longer versions. By the way, Michael, don't worry.
Speaker 1: I think that their momentum is just an idling car
Speaker 1: rolling slightly forward, but I want them going backwards. All right,
Speaker 1: all right, thank you lads, We'll do it, will so
Speaker 1: you could get next week, all right, in a moment's time.
Speaker 1: Speaking of Trump, for those that need a little reset,
Speaker 1: why does Trump have the problem with Zelensky? Why doesn't
Speaker 1: he want to spend more money in Ukraine? I'll explain
Speaker 1: why next, all right. What you may have noticed a
Speaker 1: couple of stories over the weekend about a little meeting
Speaker 1: between the presidents of the United States and Ukraine didn't
Speaker 1: end well, so much so that the President of Ukraine
Speaker 1: was booted out of the White House, ended up leaving
Speaker 1: the country, and as we speak, is in the arms
Speaker 1: of the UK. It looks like Trump will move on
Speaker 1: with basically completely moving away from all support that's previously
Speaker 1: been there for Ukraine. Kelly Jane Torrens is an excellent
Speaker 1: writer with The New York Post. She's across all of this,
Speaker 1: all the ups, all the downs. Her newspaper has had
Speaker 1: a Ukrainian flag on its front page at many times. So,
Speaker 1: Kelly Jane, how do you feel about what we all
Speaker 1: saw with our own eyes about a day ago.
Speaker 12: I'm pretty depressed, Paul. I have to be honest with you,
Speaker 12: and I say that as someone who is a huge
Speaker 12: supporter of Ukraine. You know, I went there in the
Speaker 12: summer of twenty twenty three when it was starting its
Speaker 12: counter offensive against Russia, and I went there on my own,
Speaker 12: actually I used vacation time, and of course wrote about it.
Speaker 12: But it's an issue near and dear to my heart,
Speaker 12: and it's depressing to me how much damage was done
Speaker 12: to Ukraine in less than an hour with this meeting.
Speaker 1: Who do you think is most of fault in the meeting?
Speaker 1: I know that the pressure that was building up all
Speaker 1: the rest of it, but it felt like Zelensky had
Speaker 1: been frustrated for some time. He decided to speak in
Speaker 1: a certain series of metaphors. Trump then didn't like the metaphors,
Speaker 1: and then Vance kind of takes it to the next level.
Speaker 1: You're gambling with world War three. You're gambling with World
Speaker 1: War three, and what you're doing is very disrespectful to
Speaker 1: the country this country. Have you said thank you once
Speaker 1: a lot of times?
Speaker 8: No, you said you went to Pennsylvania and campaigned for
Speaker 8: the opposition in October.
Speaker 1: Offer some words of appreciation for the United.
Speaker 8: States of America and the president who's trying to save
Speaker 8: your country. If you didn't have our military equipment, if
Speaker 8: you didn't have our military equipment, this war would have
Speaker 8: been over in two weeks.
Speaker 1: In three days, I heard it from Putin in three days.
Speaker 1: Who do you blind, if anyone for what happened?
Speaker 12: Well, as you say, Paul Zelenski was clearly irritated, and
Speaker 12: he wore those emotions on his sleeve. It was incredible
Speaker 12: to see how obviously angry and irritated he was, and
Speaker 12: he wasn't making any attempt to hide those emotions. I mean,
Speaker 12: this was a high stakes meeting. I can't say I'm
Speaker 12: you know, was very impressed with some of the things jd.
Speaker 12: Vance said, and I don't think he acted as well
Speaker 12: as he could have. And I think Donald Trump should
Speaker 12: have really done all the talking. But I do place
Speaker 12: the blame unfortunately. I hate to say this, but it's
Speaker 12: en Volodimir Zelenski. He this meeting was crucial to him,
Speaker 12: and he'd been coached I am told by a number
Speaker 12: of Republicans in Congress and and other friends of Ukraine
Speaker 12: on the on the right how to handle this meeting,
Speaker 12: and what he needed to do was smile, say thank you,
Speaker 12: shake hands, and sign this mineral deal. Uh, it was
Speaker 12: not really that much of a of a stretch. You know,
Speaker 12: I get it in the moment, you get angry, you
Speaker 12: get irritated. Yeah, but you know what you're You're the
Speaker 12: president of a country at war. You need to hold
Speaker 12: on to those emotions inside and outwardly do what's best
Speaker 12: for your country and really for the world in holding
Speaker 12: Russia at bay. And he utterly failed. And everyone I know,
Speaker 12: you know, it's just so disappointed with what happened. You know,
Speaker 12: even people I know that placed the blame on Vans
Speaker 12: or Trump, even they admit Zelenski did not handle himself
Speaker 12: well at all.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely. Now, now I've been talking about this all night.
Speaker 1: That part of our conversation here was to explain how
Speaker 1: we got here from the Trump and Magaworld point of view. Right,
Speaker 1: we know that Russia invaded Ukraine, but also we know
Speaker 1: that there are people who were very frustrated about tens
Speaker 1: of and hundreds of billions of dollars that Biden was
Speaker 1: giving to a country that, prior to being invaded by Russia,
Speaker 1: was considered to be a fairly corrupt place, right, the
Speaker 1: accounting in and around that money. But also it feels
Speaker 1: to me like some of the feeling about Trump and
Speaker 1: Magaworld has nothing to do with Ukraine and it connects
Speaker 1: back to trillions of dollars in Iraq and trillions of
Speaker 1: dollars in Afghanistan. Can you, again help explain to people
Speaker 1: watching in little old Australia, how did we get to
Speaker 1: the point where the American president feels how he feels
Speaker 1: about a country that's been invited by what I lost
Speaker 1: time checked was an enemy Russia.
Speaker 12: Well that's a great insight, Paul, and it really does
Speaker 12: help to explain a lot about how Americans, and especially
Speaker 12: a lot of those who voted for President Trump, and
Speaker 12: again that was more than half the country, the half
Speaker 12: of voters feel because, yeah, we've had so many long
Speaker 12: and really disastrous wars in the last decades here in America,
Speaker 12: and you know, utter failures. You spent all that money
Speaker 12: and again blood and treasure, blood meeting the you know,
Speaker 12: Americans died in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and you know what
Speaker 12: happened was not what was supposed to happen those countries clearly,
Speaker 12: And you look at Afghanistan. What a real disaster that
Speaker 12: has been for the people there as well, not just
Speaker 12: for the Americans who died. And you know, there's a
Speaker 12: phrase he used here a lot forever wars, and so
Speaker 12: you know, the American people are tired of war and
Speaker 12: they're skeptical of spending their money for foreign wars. And
Speaker 12: I do also put some of the blame on President Biden.
Speaker 12: He did not sell aid to Ukraine well at all.
Speaker 12: He really didn't. He didn't. You know, this really deserved
Speaker 12: a prime time address from the president. Listen. You know,
Speaker 12: one of our allies has been attacked by one of
Speaker 12: our biggest enemies, and this is why we need to
Speaker 12: help them, and this is what we're going to do,
Speaker 12: and this is how and this is again something by
Speaker 12: never never spoke to, how to help Ukraine actually achieve
Speaker 12: victory and not just a stalemate, which is sort of
Speaker 12: the situation we've ended up. It's really terrible, you know.
Speaker 12: And my paper New York Post, you know, begged by
Speaker 12: many times please sell this war, our support to Ukraine
Speaker 12: and this better than he did. He did not. And
Speaker 12: so you've got all of those things coming together. And
Speaker 12: of course, you know President Trump was just elected, and
Speaker 12: he did say he was going to end this now.
Speaker 12: He did not end it on day one as he promised,
Speaker 12: but of course even he, I'm sure knew that was
Speaker 12: an impossible feat. He's got to bring these parties together,
Speaker 12: he's got to get deals made, negotiations done. But he
Speaker 12: did make a promise to end it quickly, and the
Speaker 12: American people voted for that. And so this is all
Speaker 12: all in the background of what's going on here.
Speaker 1: Kelly, Jane and suggod to talk to you. I'm sorry
Speaker 1: it's under these circumstances. We look forward to her reading
Speaker 1: yourself and understanding America in the pages of the New
Speaker 1: York Post. All of this money.
Speaker 12: Thanks Paul.
Speaker 1: That's our show for tonight. May I just quickly say
Speaker 1: happy birthday to my little brother Jason. He has a
Speaker 1: better man that I could ever dream of being. He
Speaker 1: is a wonderful father, a great husband, and just a
Speaker 1: spectacular bloke. Happy birthday, man,