WEBVTT - Sean Kelly on what killed Peter Dutton’s campaign

0:00:00.600 --> 0:00:06.160
<v Speaker 1>I definitely did not anticipate Peter Dunnan's campaign being as

0:00:06.200 --> 0:00:08.000
<v Speaker 1>all over the place as it has been.

0:00:08.720 --> 0:00:12.200
<v Speaker 2>Sean Kelly has worked to elect two prime ministers. The

0:00:12.320 --> 0:00:14.560
<v Speaker 2>art of campaigning is in his DNA.

0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:17.919
<v Speaker 1>There were, of course, signs of a lack of preparation.

0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:20.440
<v Speaker 3>Here is a dozen eggs, mister Dutton.

0:00:20.440 --> 0:00:23.400
<v Speaker 1>Do you know how much they cost?

0:00:24.280 --> 0:00:27.000
<v Speaker 3>About four dollars twenty No, you might.

0:00:26.880 --> 0:00:30.160
<v Speaker 1>Get there was a lack of policy out there in

0:00:30.200 --> 0:00:30.560
<v Speaker 1>the ether.

0:00:31.640 --> 0:00:33.440
<v Speaker 3>Look, I think we've made a mistake in relation to

0:00:33.920 --> 0:00:34.840
<v Speaker 3>this policy seruh.

0:00:34.920 --> 0:00:39.120
<v Speaker 1>And I think there had been certainly intimations of failures

0:00:39.640 --> 0:00:43.200
<v Speaker 1>around detail around costings before the campaign began.

0:00:43.440 --> 0:00:45.640
<v Speaker 3>Where do you get this is a question where we

0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:47.800
<v Speaker 3>find inefficiency, David, And it's not something you can.

0:00:47.680 --> 0:00:50.159
<v Speaker 1>Do from But the thing about a campaign is you

0:00:50.200 --> 0:00:51.640
<v Speaker 1>have a long time to prepare for it.

0:00:55.000 --> 0:00:58.120
<v Speaker 2>Sean says. Dunton's lack of preparation is a feature, not

0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:01.440
<v Speaker 2>a bug, and until now his loose approach has served

0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:04.240
<v Speaker 2>him well. He's been the person willing to speak his

0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:08.240
<v Speaker 2>mind without much thought, generate a headline and keep moving.

0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:12.399
<v Speaker 2>But now under the scrutiny of an election campaign, the

0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:18.200
<v Speaker 2>traits that powered his rise are working against him. From

0:01:18.200 --> 0:01:23.360
<v Speaker 2>Schwartz Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven am today,

0:01:23.840 --> 0:01:27.840
<v Speaker 2>former advisor to Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. Sean Kelly

0:01:28.920 --> 0:01:31.600
<v Speaker 2>on the campaign that was and the result to come.

0:01:35.319 --> 0:01:44.240
<v Speaker 2>It's election day, Sewan, thanks for joining me. You've been

0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:48.160
<v Speaker 2>watching as Peter Dutton's campaign has unraveled. But talk to

0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:50.040
<v Speaker 2>me about this final week. How do you think this

0:01:50.160 --> 0:01:51.440
<v Speaker 2>last leg has gone for him?

0:01:51.800 --> 0:01:54.280
<v Speaker 1>As an old colleague of mine remarked me the other day,

0:01:54.280 --> 0:01:57.400
<v Speaker 1>it's like he's interrupting every mistake with another one. I

0:01:57.400 --> 0:02:01.480
<v Speaker 1>mean this last few days you've had around their visa

0:02:01.520 --> 0:02:03.440
<v Speaker 1>policy and working backpackers.

0:02:04.280 --> 0:02:06.120
<v Speaker 3>What you just said, which is now good to have

0:02:06.160 --> 0:02:09.080
<v Speaker 3>it clear that you won't touch their working holiday visas.

0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:12.359
<v Speaker 3>We need a skilled workforce, David. But what the Labour

0:02:12.400 --> 0:02:16.160
<v Speaker 3>Party is essentially done is brought in yoga teachers instead

0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:17.320
<v Speaker 3>of construction workers.

0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:21.400
<v Speaker 1>We've had Peter Dunn seeming to back away from earlier

0:02:21.440 --> 0:02:24.680
<v Speaker 1>suggestions that he revised the curriculum of the fear that

0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:27.200
<v Speaker 1>he had that school students were being indoctrinated. Now there

0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:29.000
<v Speaker 1>are going to be no changes to the curriculum.

0:02:29.360 --> 0:02:33.519
<v Speaker 3>I support young Australians being able to think freely, being

0:02:33.520 --> 0:02:36.560
<v Speaker 3>able to assess what's before them, and not being told

0:02:36.600 --> 0:02:39.960
<v Speaker 3>and indoctrinated with something that is the agenda of others.

0:02:40.200 --> 0:02:42.800
<v Speaker 1>There was an attack on the Guardian and the ABC

0:02:43.040 --> 0:02:46.040
<v Speaker 1>for being hate media, which was very Trumpian.

0:02:46.480 --> 0:02:48.760
<v Speaker 3>Forget about what you've been tied by the ABC and

0:02:48.800 --> 0:02:51.600
<v Speaker 3>the Guardian and the other hate media. Forget about that.

0:02:52.240 --> 0:02:53.560
<v Speaker 3>Listen to what you're hearing on them.

0:02:53.639 --> 0:02:56.400
<v Speaker 1>But then Jane Hume tried to walk it back and

0:02:56.720 --> 0:02:58.720
<v Speaker 1>say it wasn't really a thing, but then Peter dudn't

0:02:58.760 --> 0:03:00.240
<v Speaker 1>doubled down on it the next day.

0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:02.840
<v Speaker 3>I just think they're so biased, and many of them

0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:07.919
<v Speaker 3>just activists not journalists, that their position becomes counterproductive and

0:03:08.360 --> 0:03:11.760
<v Speaker 3>they're playing to a particular audience, to a Green voter.

0:03:13.120 --> 0:03:14.320
<v Speaker 1>You know, I wrote at the start of this week

0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:16.760
<v Speaker 1>Peter Duncan needed the last week of his campaign to

0:03:16.760 --> 0:03:20.000
<v Speaker 1>be strikingly different from the previous four. I have been

0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:23.080
<v Speaker 1>stunned by the extent to which it has continued the

0:03:23.120 --> 0:03:25.560
<v Speaker 1>tone of the previous four. I suppose I shouldn't be,

0:03:25.560 --> 0:03:27.760
<v Speaker 1>because of course, this is what happens in politics. People

0:03:27.800 --> 0:03:30.520
<v Speaker 1>get into habits they find it very difficult to break them.

0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:33.240
<v Speaker 2>Tell me about the habits you've seen dunt in form

0:03:33.240 --> 0:03:35.280
<v Speaker 2>over his career and how they're playing that now.

0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:38.440
<v Speaker 1>I think because of the way Peter Dutdan presents, people

0:03:38.480 --> 0:03:40.720
<v Speaker 1>tend to assume he's quite a disciplined guy. You know,

0:03:40.800 --> 0:03:42.920
<v Speaker 1>he has this the bearing of the policeman that he

0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:47.720
<v Speaker 1>once was. Often speaks in quite quiet and measured tones,

0:03:47.800 --> 0:03:50.240
<v Speaker 1>even if the topic that he's discussing is is one

0:03:50.240 --> 0:03:53.520
<v Speaker 1>that is one that sounds like it's provoking anger, and

0:03:53.560 --> 0:03:54.960
<v Speaker 1>I think that gives you a sense that is this

0:03:55.040 --> 0:03:59.000
<v Speaker 1>disciplined guy. Actually, the pattern in Peter Dudden's career going

0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:03.120
<v Speaker 1>back to quite early on, is it he's pretty loose. He's

0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:07.440
<v Speaker 1>pretty loose. In an interview, and I spoke to Lec Blaine,

0:04:07.440 --> 0:04:10.120
<v Speaker 1>who wrote a quarterly I Say about Peter Dunne, and

0:04:10.160 --> 0:04:13.080
<v Speaker 1>he made the point that the habits which helped Peter

0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:15.840
<v Speaker 1>Dudden rise in the Liberal Party, being able to make

0:04:15.920 --> 0:04:20.279
<v Speaker 1>kind of incendiary comments on right wing media, like a

0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:24.240
<v Speaker 1>media that was friendly to him, helped him now are

0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:30.120
<v Speaker 1>hurting him. If you look at things that have really

0:04:30.120 --> 0:04:33.080
<v Speaker 1>propelled Peter Dunnan through the party, it has been that

0:04:33.160 --> 0:04:35.679
<v Speaker 1>willingness to go just a little bit further than everybody else.

0:04:36.320 --> 0:04:39.880
<v Speaker 1>Right wing shock chocks have loved having him on. They

0:04:39.920 --> 0:04:42.160
<v Speaker 1>will say something to him and he is more than

0:04:42.200 --> 0:04:44.280
<v Speaker 1>happy to repeat it back to them, and that then

0:04:44.360 --> 0:04:47.320
<v Speaker 1>becomes the news. But that means that he often says

0:04:47.360 --> 0:04:50.880
<v Speaker 1>things which he hasn't really considered deeply, and you can

0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:53.320
<v Speaker 1>see that in this election. You know, he makes these

0:04:53.640 --> 0:04:56.919
<v Speaker 1>comments about what the Indonesian president had said when that

0:04:57.120 --> 0:05:00.640
<v Speaker 1>was absolutely not true, and suddenly it's consumed in a

0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:02.960
<v Speaker 1>new cycle over that for a couple of days. And

0:05:03.040 --> 0:05:05.760
<v Speaker 1>I think that also says something about the Liberal Party,

0:05:05.760 --> 0:05:09.279
<v Speaker 1>you know, is that tendency actually what the party should

0:05:09.320 --> 0:05:13.640
<v Speaker 1>be valuing, because depending on what happens tonight, arguably it

0:05:13.640 --> 0:05:14.960
<v Speaker 1>hasn't helped them that much in the end.

0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:18.160
<v Speaker 2>So if we do what Peter Dutton has asked us

0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:20.800
<v Speaker 2>to do and think about the previous three years, I

0:05:20.800 --> 0:05:23.360
<v Speaker 2>would suggest he would say his crowning moment during that

0:05:23.400 --> 0:05:27.280
<v Speaker 2>past three years politically was the defeat of the referendum

0:05:27.360 --> 0:05:31.159
<v Speaker 2>and the campaign that he, along with others run to

0:05:31.240 --> 0:05:35.000
<v Speaker 2>defeat that referendum. So what lessons do you think he

0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:36.359
<v Speaker 2>took from that experience?

0:05:36.880 --> 0:05:39.520
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Look, I think the voice is so fascinating because

0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:42.440
<v Speaker 1>it was the biggest debate of this term and it

0:05:42.480 --> 0:05:47.320
<v Speaker 1>has a lot of substantive importance. Obviously, the overall verdict

0:05:47.360 --> 0:05:50.680
<v Speaker 1>has been that it hurt Anthony Albuneasy, that it gave

0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:55.040
<v Speaker 1>voters the perception that he was distracted by a cultural

0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:57.080
<v Speaker 1>issue at a time when he should have been focusing

0:05:57.200 --> 0:06:01.200
<v Speaker 1>on cost of living. But I think I think in hindsight,

0:06:01.360 --> 0:06:04.880
<v Speaker 1>what it really did was get Peter Dudden focused on

0:06:04.920 --> 0:06:07.440
<v Speaker 1>a cultural issue when he could have been focused on

0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:10.000
<v Speaker 1>cost of living, and when he could have been taking

0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:13.080
<v Speaker 1>the opportunity to broaden his image. Because the real difficulty

0:06:13.080 --> 0:06:16.159
<v Speaker 1>for Peter Dutden is that he since the very beginning

0:06:16.560 --> 0:06:19.480
<v Speaker 1>of his career has presented as a kind of strong man.

0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:24.160
<v Speaker 1>Now he obviously needed to soften that in various ways,

0:06:24.480 --> 0:06:27.080
<v Speaker 1>and I think with the Voice he instead leaned into

0:06:27.120 --> 0:06:29.479
<v Speaker 1>that image and that's all Australians heard from him for

0:06:29.520 --> 0:06:33.600
<v Speaker 1>a very long time, and he took from that that

0:06:33.600 --> 0:06:37.120
<v Speaker 1>that would work, that he could continue in that vein.

0:06:41.000 --> 0:06:43.720
<v Speaker 1>But the problem in taking that lesson from a referendum

0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:46.160
<v Speaker 1>is that we know that referendums don't succeed unless you

0:06:46.200 --> 0:06:49.400
<v Speaker 1>have bipartisan support. So Peter Dutton had pretty much doomed

0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:52.040
<v Speaker 1>the referendum from the moment he said no, the Coalition

0:06:52.160 --> 0:06:54.679
<v Speaker 1>is not going to support this. Everything he did after

0:06:54.720 --> 0:06:57.919
<v Speaker 1>that was really not that relevant. But I think he

0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:02.000
<v Speaker 1>probably convinced himself that he won that campaign by going

0:07:02.040 --> 0:07:04.680
<v Speaker 1>out there and campaigning and being a great campaigner, and

0:07:04.680 --> 0:07:07.440
<v Speaker 1>by leaning into the vibes and Australians were sick of workness.

0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:10.760
<v Speaker 1>And then Donald Trump came along and emphasized that view,

0:07:11.360 --> 0:07:13.760
<v Speaker 1>validated it in the eyes of meaning in the coalition,

0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:16.960
<v Speaker 1>and I suspect Peter Dutton and I think that meant

0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:20.040
<v Speaker 1>that they headed into this campaign in exactly the wrong position.

0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:37.480
<v Speaker 2>After the break the gift Trump gave Albanezi Sean, we've

0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:40.160
<v Speaker 2>talked about Dutton, now let's talk about the Prime minister.

0:07:40.520 --> 0:07:41.880
<v Speaker 2>How would you raide his campaign?

0:07:42.600 --> 0:07:48.400
<v Speaker 1>Really pretty good, nothing dramatically impressive. He's been pretty sharp.

0:07:48.840 --> 0:07:51.600
<v Speaker 1>He's been far on message than I think we've come

0:07:51.640 --> 0:07:54.200
<v Speaker 1>to expect from the Prime Minister over the past couple

0:07:54.280 --> 0:07:56.640
<v Speaker 1>of years. And that's been there since the start of

0:07:56.640 --> 0:07:58.440
<v Speaker 1>the year. Very early on in the year, I said

0:07:58.440 --> 0:08:01.440
<v Speaker 1>we were seeing a little bit of a new Anthony Albanesi.

0:08:01.560 --> 0:08:05.560
<v Speaker 1>He is much sharper and I think what's really interesting

0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:09.080
<v Speaker 1>about Labor and what I think has helped the Prime

0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:12.200
<v Speaker 1>Minister on the campaign trail is for various reasons, they

0:08:12.320 --> 0:08:15.120
<v Speaker 1>got out all of their policy well before the campaign.

0:08:15.640 --> 0:08:17.440
<v Speaker 1>He hasn't had to think on his feet in a way.

0:08:17.520 --> 0:08:21.520
<v Speaker 1>He's had to relentlessly prosecute the messages that Labor have

0:08:21.560 --> 0:08:23.160
<v Speaker 1>been prosecuting for the last three years.

0:08:23.520 --> 0:08:27.280
<v Speaker 2>And do you think that the fact that Alberanze, given

0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:31.200
<v Speaker 2>the global events that have been happening around us, particularly

0:08:31.240 --> 0:08:34.720
<v Speaker 2>over the last hundred days, so that sort of steady,

0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:40.680
<v Speaker 2>non exciting type of leadership and campaigning has basically played

0:08:40.960 --> 0:08:41.840
<v Speaker 2>into his hands.

0:08:42.120 --> 0:08:45.160
<v Speaker 1>Well, and I think this is a really important fact.

0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:47.680
<v Speaker 1>You know, we can say because it is true that

0:08:47.720 --> 0:08:51.760
<v Speaker 1>Anthony Alberanesi has had a pretty good campaign, Peter Dudden

0:08:51.840 --> 0:08:54.839
<v Speaker 1>has had a disastrously bad campaign. But in the end,

0:08:55.240 --> 0:08:57.560
<v Speaker 1>there was one factor that shifted everything and it was

0:08:57.600 --> 0:09:01.360
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump, and specifically with Donald Trump the tariffs, it

0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:05.560
<v Speaker 1>just unleashed a sense that the globe was in this

0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:10.040
<v Speaker 1>hugely uncertain time and that then I think drove people

0:09:10.040 --> 0:09:13.160
<v Speaker 1>back towards incumbents. We saw that, of course in Canada

0:09:13.400 --> 0:09:17.160
<v Speaker 1>in this last week specifically, I think it helped left

0:09:17.160 --> 0:09:22.360
<v Speaker 1>wing incumbents versus right wing insurgents like Peter Dudden. It

0:09:22.440 --> 0:09:24.120
<v Speaker 1>hurt a lot of right wing candidates, and I think

0:09:24.240 --> 0:09:28.600
<v Speaker 1>it definitely hurt Peter Dudden in this workmanlike approach that

0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:31.120
<v Speaker 1>Albaneze has taken to the prime minship, which I think

0:09:31.160 --> 0:09:34.800
<v Speaker 1>has been making a virtue of his weaknesses in some ways.

0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:39.439
<v Speaker 1>It was also born out of a sense that politics

0:09:39.480 --> 0:09:43.440
<v Speaker 1>had become too volatile in recent years. He used that

0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:48.560
<v Speaker 1>term conflict fatigue, and I think that is some form

0:09:48.559 --> 0:09:51.400
<v Speaker 1>of anticipation of the environment in which this campaign has

0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:54.240
<v Speaker 1>ended up taking place. It was essentially alban Esy seeing

0:09:54.640 --> 0:09:58.040
<v Speaker 1>that there was a lot of uncertainty in the electoral

0:09:58.120 --> 0:10:02.720
<v Speaker 1>landscape and that voters would end up gravitating towards somebody

0:10:02.720 --> 0:10:04.959
<v Speaker 1>who was just a little bit quiet, who had brought

0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:07.319
<v Speaker 1>the tone of politics to a calmer place, and that

0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:10.360
<v Speaker 1>is what has ended up helping him enormously these last

0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:11.000
<v Speaker 1>five weeks.

0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:14.880
<v Speaker 2>So if you think about Anthony Albanese's Prime ministership to date,

0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:16.679
<v Speaker 2>what will you remember about it?

0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:19.200
<v Speaker 1>Look, I have this theory about politics. It's a bit

0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:21.320
<v Speaker 1>of a loose theory, but I call it the rule

0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:24.360
<v Speaker 1>of three and it's what three things can you remember

0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:26.559
<v Speaker 1>from the last term of government, and if two out

0:10:26.600 --> 0:10:29.200
<v Speaker 1>of the three things you remember are positive, then that

0:10:29.240 --> 0:10:32.360
<v Speaker 1>government is likely to be reelected. I'm not sure what

0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:36.680
<v Speaker 1>you do remember from this term. Perhaps in later years

0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:41.120
<v Speaker 1>you will remember the government in the end defeating inflation.

0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:43.400
<v Speaker 1>You know, inflation seemed like a really negative thing for

0:10:43.480 --> 0:10:45.520
<v Speaker 1>most of this term. I think it probably ends up

0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:49.520
<v Speaker 1>seeming like a positive achievement of the Albanese government. The

0:10:49.640 --> 0:10:54.240
<v Speaker 1>voice ends up being seen as a failure obviously, though

0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:57.520
<v Speaker 1>perhaps you can surmise a future where people think, well,

0:10:57.520 --> 0:11:00.640
<v Speaker 1>at least Albanzi was brave for attempting it, for listening

0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:04.160
<v Speaker 1>to the requestsive indigenous people, and I really struggle to

0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:06.840
<v Speaker 1>get to a third. And look, this is the thing

0:11:07.080 --> 0:11:10.679
<v Speaker 1>about Urbanezi. He has been very explicit from very early

0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:15.400
<v Speaker 1>on that his approach is to go gradually, is to

0:11:15.440 --> 0:11:17.400
<v Speaker 1>not get people off side, It is to not pick

0:11:17.480 --> 0:11:21.600
<v Speaker 1>fights and to build change over time. But then there

0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:24.160
<v Speaker 1>are also long building crises, and I think this is

0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:27.560
<v Speaker 1>the place Australia finds itself in at the moment. We

0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:32.240
<v Speaker 1>have education standards which have been declining for a long time.

0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:33.120
<v Speaker 3>Now we have a.

0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:37.120
<v Speaker 1>School system, which, rather than shrinking inequality between students, widens

0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:41.200
<v Speaker 1>the learning gap between students. We have a healthcare system

0:11:41.520 --> 0:11:43.800
<v Speaker 1>which is struggling to get enough GPS, which we know

0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:47.120
<v Speaker 1>bulk building has been under pressure. We have age care

0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:51.400
<v Speaker 1>in trouble, we have childcare standards in trouble. Across the

0:11:51.559 --> 0:11:54.800
<v Speaker 1>entire life cycle, our standard of living in this country

0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:59.480
<v Speaker 1>is facing huge threats. Now those are often slow building crises,

0:12:00.120 --> 0:12:04.760
<v Speaker 1>doesn't make them less like crisis. And I think in

0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:06.800
<v Speaker 1>a way, the test of this government is going to

0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:12.280
<v Speaker 1>end up being has it acted dramatically enough fast enough

0:12:12.679 --> 0:12:16.199
<v Speaker 1>to turn those problems around by the time it has

0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:17.760
<v Speaker 1>to hand over power to somebody else.

0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:21.560
<v Speaker 2>And finally, seawn Y knew this question was coming, who

0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:24.600
<v Speaker 2>is going to win and why? I'll add on top

0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:27.120
<v Speaker 2>of that, what do you expect the new parliament to

0:12:27.200 --> 0:12:27.560
<v Speaker 2>look like?

0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:32.240
<v Speaker 1>Broadly, Look, I really don't know. I really don't know.

0:12:32.640 --> 0:12:36.080
<v Speaker 1>First up, any election can go anyway. Things can always

0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:39.560
<v Speaker 1>shift in ways that people don't expect. People keep pointing

0:12:39.559 --> 0:12:42.360
<v Speaker 1>back towards twenty nineteen and the fact that Bill Shorten

0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:46.760
<v Speaker 1>unexpectedly lost. I suspect that this is not like that

0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:49.640
<v Speaker 1>for the simple reason the polls were shifting back towards

0:12:49.720 --> 0:12:52.720
<v Speaker 1>the Coalition for a very long time before that election.

0:12:52.840 --> 0:12:54.960
<v Speaker 1>The final polls didn't pick up the extent of that,

0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:57.720
<v Speaker 1>but the trend was there. In this election, the trend

0:12:57.760 --> 0:13:01.800
<v Speaker 1>has been towards Labor. I think it would take something

0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:04.720
<v Speaker 1>really out of the box for Peter Dudden to win tonight,

0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:09.640
<v Speaker 1>but of course it's possible. It will be fascinating if

0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:12.920
<v Speaker 1>Labor do end up in minority. We see the Teals

0:13:12.960 --> 0:13:15.640
<v Speaker 1>trying to prove that they can win in an environment

0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:18.480
<v Speaker 1>without Scott Morrison and actually have an agenda of their

0:13:18.480 --> 0:13:20.400
<v Speaker 1>own that is not just an absence of what the

0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:23.360
<v Speaker 1>Coalition is doing. And we have the Greens really trying

0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:26.600
<v Speaker 1>to be the party of renters, shifting a little bit

0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:30.160
<v Speaker 1>further towards economic issues and away from their traditional ground

0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:34.840
<v Speaker 1>of climate environment issues. So whatever the actual result is tonight,

0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:38.720
<v Speaker 1>each of the parties is behaving in very very different

0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:40.800
<v Speaker 1>ways than what we are used to and of course

0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:43.600
<v Speaker 1>the Teals in that environment are still pretty new, So

0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:46.679
<v Speaker 1>I think whatever happens tonight, we will see a new

0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:50.760
<v Speaker 1>landscape because some of those experiments will continue to go

0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:54.080
<v Speaker 1>forward if they're being successful, and the failed ones, you know,

0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:56.120
<v Speaker 1>those parties will have to go back to the drawing board.

0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.200
<v Speaker 2>Saw never a dull moment. Thanks for coming in and

0:13:59.240 --> 0:13:59.719
<v Speaker 2>speaking of it.

0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:00.720
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for having me.

0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:16.760
<v Speaker 2>Seven Am is a daily show from Schwartz Media and

0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:20.760
<v Speaker 2>a Saturday paper. It's made by Atticus Basto, Shane Anderson,

0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:26.520
<v Speaker 2>Christen Gate, Eric Jensen, Ruby Jones, Sarah mcphe, Travis Evans,

0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:31.360
<v Speaker 2>Sultan Facho and me Daniel James. Our theme music is

0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:35.480
<v Speaker 2>by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Bordeo and Tonight,

0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:38.560
<v Speaker 2>I'm heading to the Labor Party's Election Night party and

0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:40.800
<v Speaker 2>I'll have a full report for you first thing in

0:14:40.800 --> 0:14:42.160
<v Speaker 2>the morning. See you then,