WEBVTT - What is Trump's exit ramp from Iran?  

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<v Speaker 1>From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Tuesday, March twenty four, twenty twenty six. Carl Sanderlan's

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<v Speaker 1>claims he was encouraged to display his dominant and abrasive

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<v Speaker 1>personality on air by his former employer ARN and he

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<v Speaker 1>wants a court to force them to pay his full

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred million dollar contract. Pauline Hanson says sweeping changes

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<v Speaker 1>to Australia's climate policy are on the cards as her

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<v Speaker 1>One Nation Party races towards fifty thousand members. Those stories

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<v Speaker 1>alive right now at the Australian dot com dot au.

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<v Speaker 1>What's Donald Trump's end game in Iran? What does victory

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<v Speaker 1>in this war look like for the US? And why

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<v Speaker 1>did Donald Trump think he could go it alone and

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<v Speaker 1>then change his mind? Our Washington co respondent Joe Kelly

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<v Speaker 1>is here in just a moment. This was Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>on the weekend, posting on his favorite platform, truth social

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<v Speaker 1>We used an AI voice to read his post.

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<v Speaker 2>If Iran doesn't fully open without threat the Strait of

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<v Speaker 2>Hormuz within forty eight hours from this exact point in time,

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<v Speaker 2>the United States of America will hit and obliterate their

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<v Speaker 2>various power plants, starting with the biggest one first.

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<v Speaker 1>By late Monday Australian time, Trump had changed his tune entirely,

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<v Speaker 1>saying he would delay any assault on Iranian power infrastructure

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<v Speaker 1>by at least five days, and that America was in

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<v Speaker 1>positive talks with the Iranian regime on the total cessation

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<v Speaker 1>of hostilities. Joe Kelly is the Australian's Washington DC correspondent.

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<v Speaker 3>He seems to be swing from one extreme to the other.

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<v Speaker 3>There are all these contradictions in his position. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>Iran is militarily decimated, they're beaten. Yet he's called on

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<v Speaker 3>allies and partners of the United States to try and

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<v Speaker 3>help clear out the Strait of muz and not just

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<v Speaker 3>the United States allies and partners, he extended that offer

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<v Speaker 3>to China as well. So I think on Friday he

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<v Speaker 3>posted that the United States was very close to achieving

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<v Speaker 3>its military objectives, and then, of course the next day

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<v Speaker 3>we got the Truth Social Update where he was providing

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<v Speaker 3>a forty eight hour deadline, which is a massive escalation.

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<v Speaker 3>So we are seeing these massive shifts from the President,

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<v Speaker 3>and in my view that points to again a sense

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<v Speaker 3>of spontaneity, perhaps not a clearly thought out strategy. Now,

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<v Speaker 3>supporters of the United States president will say this is

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<v Speaker 3>all part of Donald Trump's game, where he likes to

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<v Speaker 3>maintain a sense of unpredictability. But I think there's also

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<v Speaker 3>a flip side to that, and the flip side is

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<v Speaker 3>it looks like chaos and a president who doesn't really

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<v Speaker 3>have a plan. I mean, the price of gasoline at

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<v Speaker 3>the pump has gone up about a dollar. It's hovering

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<v Speaker 3>about four dollars now, so that's a massive increase in

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<v Speaker 3>prices in just less than a month. So I think

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<v Speaker 3>Donald Trump is facing economic and political crisis point here,

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<v Speaker 3>and it's going to be fascinating to see what he

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<v Speaker 3>actually does.

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<v Speaker 1>Claire, I think one of the things we can be

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<v Speaker 1>sure that he doesn't want is a twenty year Afghan

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<v Speaker 1>style mission to change a country. He doesn't want to

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<v Speaker 1>own Iran for the rest of his life. But he

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<v Speaker 1>does have an investment, a personal investment in the Middle

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<v Speaker 1>East working out. You know, he's on the Board of Peace,

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<v Speaker 1>his family is deeply involved. He wants to turn Gaza

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<v Speaker 1>into the new mar Lago. Apparently, so Donald Trump personally

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<v Speaker 1>and as president needs to win here bombing the power

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<v Speaker 1>stations in Iran, that would send around back to the

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<v Speaker 1>pre industrial era and make it kind of impossible for

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<v Speaker 1>there to be a functioning state there. How do you

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<v Speaker 1>think he steps his way through all that? I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>does that mean do you think that bombing the power

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<v Speaker 1>stations is actually an empty threat?

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<v Speaker 3>Donald Trump's playbook usually, and this is what makes him

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<v Speaker 3>so fascinating. I think as a politician is to engineer

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<v Speaker 3>a sense of crisis, or to embrace a sense of crisis,

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<v Speaker 3>to create opportunities for himself, to create leverage. But this

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<v Speaker 3>is in the middle of a very serious conflict in

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<v Speaker 3>the Middle East. So it may be an attempt to

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<v Speaker 3>engage with the regime to try and negotiate, And it

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<v Speaker 3>may be an attempt by the president, like he has

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<v Speaker 3>so many times, to try and find creative solutions by

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<v Speaker 3>embracing this sense of confrontation and crisis. But I'm just

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<v Speaker 3>wondering this time around, Claire, whether the Iranians are going

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<v Speaker 3>to go for that. More broadly, I think, actually this

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<v Speaker 3>has been one of the strongest until now, I should say,

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<v Speaker 3>one of the strongest points of Donald Trump's second term

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<v Speaker 3>and first term in terms of his foreign policy. He's

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<v Speaker 3>cured the Abraham Accords, which was so critical in trying

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<v Speaker 3>to normalize relations between Israel and the Arab world. And

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<v Speaker 3>we also had the ceasefire that he oversaw between Israel

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<v Speaker 3>and Humas in his second term. So his record on

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<v Speaker 3>the Middle East is strong, and I think he knows

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<v Speaker 3>that his historical legacy is now on the line with

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<v Speaker 3>this conflict with Iran, and the stakes for him are huge.

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<v Speaker 3>This will certainly go on to define his legacy and

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<v Speaker 3>at least his second term.

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<v Speaker 1>For sure coming up. So is this even technically a war?

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<v Speaker 1>The United States has not actually declared war here, and

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<v Speaker 1>of course that's a power that rests with Congress. Donald Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>as president is commander in chief of the United States Military,

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<v Speaker 1>so he can really do whatever he wants, but Congress

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<v Speaker 1>does hold the purse strings. You're reporting, Joe that Pete

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<v Speaker 1>Hexth is talking about or there are reports that he

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<v Speaker 1>is going to request two hundred billion dollars from Congress

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<v Speaker 1>to fund this war, which is no doubt very expensive.

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<v Speaker 1>What does that mean? Are we're inching towards an actual

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<v Speaker 1>formal declaration of war here or Congress getting involved in

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<v Speaker 1>some way?

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<v Speaker 3>I think the problem with this request is that there's

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<v Speaker 3>no political consensus around this war. In Washington. This is

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<v Speaker 3>a highly partisan conflict where the Republicans and the Democrats

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<v Speaker 3>are divided on either side of this question. So in

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<v Speaker 3>terms of this being able to get through to be

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<v Speaker 3>approved by the Congress, I don't like the president's chances

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<v Speaker 3>of that at the moment. And Chuck Schumer, when he

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<v Speaker 3>was asked about this, said that the request for two

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<v Speaker 3>hundred billion dollars was preposterous. Now, to put it in context,

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<v Speaker 3>that's more money than the United States has provided in

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<v Speaker 3>assistance to Ukraine, which is a conflict that's been going

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<v Speaker 3>on for four years. So it's a lot of money.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think it also shows that the United States

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<v Speaker 3>is concerned about their munition stockpile. This was one of

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<v Speaker 3>the issues that was put on the agenda that people

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<v Speaker 3>had expressed concern about before this conflict began. The United

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<v Speaker 3>States wants to make sure that it has the capacity

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<v Speaker 3>city to be able to sustain this fight. And really

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<v Speaker 3>there is a clock on this conflict at the moment

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<v Speaker 3>from the United States perspective. So look, it's a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of money. It would amount to a de facto war

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<v Speaker 3>authorization vote in the Congress, and it goes to the

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<v Speaker 3>fact that there is no consensus around this, and again

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<v Speaker 3>it's an insight into how Donald Trump operates. He didn't

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<v Speaker 3>try to build a consensus and he didn't consult with

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<v Speaker 3>his allies either, Claire, which I think is one of

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<v Speaker 3>the fascinating things that has emerged. A couple of weeks

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<v Speaker 3>into the conflict, the United States President started asking for

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<v Speaker 3>help to unclog the strait of hermus but none of

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<v Speaker 3>the groundwork in that coalition building discussing this beforehand, was done.

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<v Speaker 3>And we saw that in again very bombastic Trump fashion

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<v Speaker 3>with Prime Minister Takaichi of Japan, where he said, we

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<v Speaker 3>wanted the element of surprise.

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<v Speaker 4>One question, why didn't you tell us eyes in Europe

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<v Speaker 4>and Asia like Japan about the war before? Are so

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<v Speaker 4>we are very confused about Japanese.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, one thing, you don't want to signal too much,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, when we go in, we went in very high,

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<v Speaker 2>and we didn't tell anybody about it because we wanted surprise.

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<v Speaker 2>Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Okay, why didn't

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<v Speaker 2>you tell me about Pearl Harbor? Okay? Right, He's askab me,

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<v Speaker 2>do you believe in surprise?

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<v Speaker 1>It was so awkward.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that the Japanese Prime Minister wished that question,

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<v Speaker 3>which was asked for the Japanese reporter, never came up.

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<v Speaker 3>That's for Sue and she the floor.

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<v Speaker 1>She wanted the floor to open up and swallow her hole,

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<v Speaker 1>didn't she.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's what it looks like. But I think

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<v Speaker 3>that's perhaps one of the issues Donald Trump is facing

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<v Speaker 3>this conflict player he didn't build a political consensus around it.

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<v Speaker 3>And it also goes to this sense I think of

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<v Speaker 3>US unilateralism and the new Trump doctrine, the Dunroad doctrine,

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<v Speaker 3>America First foreign policy, it's no longer working the way

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<v Speaker 3>it typically has within the multilateral assistant to the same extent,

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<v Speaker 3>and Donald Trump wants to do things on his own increasingly,

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<v Speaker 3>and we saw this with Venezuela. I think it's quite

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<v Speaker 3>telling this conflict Operation Epic Fury came after Venezuela because

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<v Speaker 3>clearly Donald Trump was very confident and encouraged by the

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<v Speaker 3>performance of the US military in Venezuela in securing the

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<v Speaker 3>outcome of removing and extracting Nicholas Maduro there. So I

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<v Speaker 3>think in some ways we're seeing maybe the limitations of

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<v Speaker 3>this new go it alone American unilateralism, and it's causing

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<v Speaker 3>a bit of tension within the traditional United States Alliance network.

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Kelly is the Australian's Washington DC correspondent. Thanks so much, Joe,

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks Claire. Joe Kelly is the Australian's correspondent in Washington DC.

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<v Speaker 1>You can read all the latest on the situation in

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<v Speaker 1>the Middle East right now at the Australian dot com

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<v Speaker 1>dot au