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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: With just a month to go before the end of

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Speaker 1: the year, the local share market is one of the

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Speaker 1: worst performing major bosses for twenty twenty five. National home

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Speaker 1: values record a third consecutive monthly rise in price of

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Speaker 1: one percent, and the Tax Office to crack down on

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Speaker 1: high income professionals and tradees. Plus the federal government's helped

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Speaker 1: to buy scheme kicks off this week. And new research

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Speaker 1: shows that cats me ow louder at men because they

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Speaker 1: don't listen as much. It's Monday, the first of December

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson, and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 1: That's the men, not the cats not listening. Important to

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Speaker 1: clarify that one. We'll get to that a bit later

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Speaker 1: on Sean. The main story this morning. With one month

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Speaker 1: to go before the end of the year, we are

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Speaker 1: officially into December, the local share market sits at the

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Speaker 1: bottom of the global league tables when it comes to performance,

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Speaker 1: with the s ANDPA s X two hundred up just

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Speaker 1: five percent in the first eleven months of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: That compares to more than twenty percent in Canada and Japan,

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Speaker 2: sixteen percent in Britain and Germany, twelve to fourteen percent

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Speaker 2: or so for the major indices in the US and China,

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Speaker 2: and about eleven percent for Europe. There are a number

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Speaker 2: of reasons why the local market has underperformed. The first

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Speaker 2: is that the Australian market is overweight banks and financials,

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Speaker 2: and the major lenders, particularly Commonwealth Bank, have underperformed this year.

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Speaker 2: On Friday, Comonwealth Bank closed lower than where it started

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. Pretty remarkable to think about that. Also,

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Speaker 2: our biggest mining stocks are the iron ore producers, not

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Speaker 2: really a forward looking commodity. Generally, the best performing sectors

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Speaker 2: globally have been tech and new economy businesses. That's not

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Speaker 2: really Australia's strong suit. A second reason for the underperformance

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Speaker 2: is the record flow of money into overseas focused exchange

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Speaker 2: traded funds ETFs are an easy way to invest offshore,

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Speaker 2: and local investors have been taking advantage. Only five of

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Speaker 2: the top twenty ETFs in Australia this year are focused

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Speaker 2: on the Australian share market. The third reason is that

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Speaker 2: US President Donald Trump has dialed back the retric on

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Speaker 2: trade wars and tariffs, larger economies and share markets have responded.

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Speaker 2: And fourth one is that while interestrates in Australia now

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Speaker 2: seem to be on hold, US rates are expected to

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Speaker 2: fall this month. Lower interest rates theoretically improves earnings. That

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Speaker 2: makes in this instance, US companies more attractive.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So it's based on the sectors, it's based on ETFs,

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Speaker 1: it's based on Donald Trump and trade, it's based on

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Speaker 1: interest rates. That's why, Sean, I'm going to ask you

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Speaker 1: the harder part. Now, is it going to continue the

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Speaker 1: Australian underperformance? Are we going to see that continue through

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Speaker 1: to the end of the year and perhaps beyond?

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Speaker 2: Yes, I mean, I mean, I don't know the answer.

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Speaker 2: It probably really comes down to what happens to the

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Speaker 2: tech sector on Wall Street. Amp Shane Older said share

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Speaker 2: markers share markets broadly remain at risk of a further

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Speaker 2: correction given stretched valuations, risks around US tariffs, and the

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Speaker 2: softening US jobs market, But with the Fed still likely

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Speaker 2: to cut rates further, shares are likely to provide reasonable

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Speaker 2: gains on a six to twelve month horizon That should

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Speaker 2: help the Australian share market, even though the Reserve banks

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Speaker 2: are done with cutting rates, the stretched valuations is a

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Speaker 2: big risk, though, UBS's equity strategist Richard Shelback reckons the

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Speaker 2: ASEX two hundred will finish next year about three percent

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Speaker 2: higher than where it is today on the back of

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Speaker 2: a strong mining sector. That's not a particularly strong performance.

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Speaker 2: If that's what comes to pass. Other investment banks like

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Speaker 2: Goldman's have forecasted over the longer term, Wall Street will

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Speaker 2: underperform other global indices. Just the fact that Australia has

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Speaker 2: underperformed means that it's baseline for the next twelve months

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Speaker 2: isn't as high as the others. As I said, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I don't know, mikeel I'm talking in circles here, but

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Speaker 2: certainly the local market has had a poor twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: five relative to its peers. Not good for local investors

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Speaker 2: of course, including everyone with super shares.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, good point. It's also worth reminding everyone to get

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Speaker 1: professional advice when making investment decisions. Always very helpful. Always

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Speaker 1: just before we leave local markets, How did things finish

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Speaker 1: up on Friday? Not just for the week really, but

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Speaker 1: for the whole month.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so there's INPASX two hundred finished the month at

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Speaker 2: eighty six hundred and fourteen points flat on Friday, up

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Speaker 2: one and a half percent for the week, but for

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Speaker 2: the month of November it lost three percent, the worst

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Speaker 2: since March. Futures trading suggests the market will open a

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Speaker 2: little higher this morning.

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Speaker 1: What about Wall Street.

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Speaker 2: It was fairly quite out of the weekend. Really, we

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Speaker 2: had Thanksgiving Day Thanksgiving Thursday, so not a lot going

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Speaker 2: on in commodity markets, oils trading around sixty three US

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Speaker 2: dollars a barrel, goals back up to forty two to

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Speaker 2: seventeen US dollars. Announce. The price of the precious metal

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Speaker 2: has rien risen on the back of expectations of rate

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Speaker 2: cuts in the US. Silver hit the new high of

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Speaker 2: the weekend over fifty six US dollars and Ounce. That's

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Speaker 2: amed at mounting supply concerns and the Aussie dollar michael

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Speaker 2: sixty five and a half FEUs cents.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's take a look at property now, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Because national home values across the country rose by one

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Speaker 1: percent during November, that is the third consecutive month of

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Speaker 1: strong growth.

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Speaker 2: The mid sized capitals outperformed, with Perth up two point

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Speaker 2: four percent during the month. Sydney came in at zero

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Speaker 2: point five percent, Melbourne zero point three percent. According to Coatality,

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Speaker 2: all other capital cities outside Sydney and Melbourne were up

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Speaker 2: at least one percent. Now, the bias towards the mid

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Speaker 2: sized capitals in part reflects a lack of listings. The

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Speaker 2: national average is sixteen percent below average. That's the national

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Speaker 2: average of listings in average, it's about it's just two

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Speaker 2: percent below the long term average. So that does explain

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Speaker 2: some of the reason why those mid sized capitals are outperforming.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't really explain the Melbourne result though, After three

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Speaker 2: straight months of strong growth, affordability pressures and a lack

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Speaker 2: of further interest rate cuts loom as dampness on future

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Speaker 2: growth as we go forward Catalities, Tim Lawless said, the

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Speaker 2: subtle easing and it is very subtle in the headline

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Speaker 2: result last month comes as auction clearance rates have tracked lower. So,

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Speaker 2: for example, the national result over the weekend was sixty

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Speaker 2: eight point two percent. That's the preliminary clearance rate. Now

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Speaker 2: the decade long average is actually higher than that. The

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Speaker 2: spring average is much higher than that, So it does

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Speaker 2: look like the umph it's coming out of the market.

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Speaker 2: Brisbane worth the mention median value now over a million dollars.

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Speaker 2: Sydney leads away at nearly one point three million, Melbourne

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Speaker 2: eight hundred and twenty three thousand.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we've covered a lot already. We've still got a

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Speaker 1: lot more to go. We'll be back in a moment

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Speaker 1: with the rest of the day's business news on The

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Speaker 1: Tax Office will crack down on high income professionals and

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Speaker 1: tradees who pursue aggressive tax evasion strategies by splitting income

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Speaker 1: with their spouses and children.

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Speaker 2: The ATA has identified elevated levels of excessive income splitting

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Speaker 2: by people who use trusts, companies and partnerships to divert

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Speaker 2: income to family members on lower tax rates. It's issued

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Speaker 2: updated guidance that spells out exactly what it will allow

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Speaker 2: when it applies the anti avoidance measures to so called

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Speaker 2: professional service income. Now that captures not just doctors, lawyers, architects,

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Speaker 2: it professionals, but all professionals and skilled trades persons, so electricians, plumbers.

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Speaker 2: They're going to be looked at by the ATO as well.

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Speaker 2: A personal service business is basically any operation where most

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Speaker 2: of the money made is generated by personal skill, labor,

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Speaker 2: or expertise. Podcasting, Perhaps maybe the action is likely to

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Speaker 2: affect many thousands of personal service businesses that use an

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Speaker 2: income splitting strategy. Worth noting the ATA went back date

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Speaker 2: its compliance push in that if taxpayers made to make

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Speaker 2: a genuine attempt to move their arrangements into low risk

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Speaker 2: by June thirty, twenty twenty seven, the Tax Office is

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Speaker 2: unlikely to take compliance actions.

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Speaker 1: Suspect that we a few people calling their accountants now

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Speaker 1: after hearing this.

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Speaker 2: Very possibly.

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Speaker 1: We talked about house prices before Sean and the federal

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Speaker 1: governments helped to buy scheme kicks off this week where

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Speaker 1: by first home buyers can share equity in their homes

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Speaker 1: with the government to basically help them to get into

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Speaker 1: the market sooner purchase earlier.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the program will provide ten thousand low to medium

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Speaker 2: income first home buyers each year the ability to purchase

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Speaker 2: a home with just a two percent deposit. The government

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Speaker 2: will contribute thirty to forty percent of a homes price

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Speaker 2: in exchange for equity, which the owner can buy out later.

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Speaker 2: While the government said it won't put pressure on prices,

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Speaker 2: it is demands high policy fellers, not a supply side policy,

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Speaker 2: so it's hard to see that it won't put pressure

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Speaker 2: on prices, especially at that bottom end. The government's five

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Speaker 2: percent deposit scheme, for example, as a demand side policy,

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Speaker 2: it's coincided with an increase in home prices at that

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Speaker 2: end of the market. Don't say why this one won't anyway,

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Speaker 2: we'll see.

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Speaker 1: Yes, seven, perhaps a little optimistic. The federal budget deficit

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Speaker 1: has widened to thirty two point nine billion dollars in

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Speaker 1: the financial year to October, up from the ten billion

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Speaker 1: dollar deficit recorded for the full twenty twenty five financial year.

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Speaker 2: Yes, the deficit is seven billion dollars better than Treasury

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Speaker 2: had forecast for this time. Last year, According to the

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Speaker 2: Department of Finance, taxation revenue was about four point six

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Speaker 2: billion dollars more than expected. Title receipts eight billion dollars higher.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: Government payments were also a bit higher, driven partly by

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Speaker 2: higher wage in salaries bill, which reached ten point four

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Speaker 2: billion dollars. Government spending as a percent of GDP remains

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Speaker 2: at post World War two highs. That's probably about as

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Speaker 2: good a way as judging it versus history. So spending

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Speaker 2: as percent of GDP world War two high. Federal treasure

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Speaker 2: of Jim Chalmers has said the economy is shifting away

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Speaker 2: from public spending towards private sector spending. They were not

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Speaker 2: really seeing in the numbers. Yet.

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Speaker 1: It's a massive week for the economy, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: Sure.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited. It's got economic growth figures due for release

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Speaker 1: on when soa, I realized when I say that it

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Speaker 1: sounds sarcastic. I'm genuinely excited. And we've discussed this today

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Speaker 1: in the week ahead with this. He's excited. He loves

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Speaker 1: a week like this that could ye. Yeah, and it's

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Speaker 1: a I mean Wednesday. We've also got the house price

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Speaker 1: starter out today. We've got a bunch of other things

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Speaker 1: and it is just the headline is the GDP figure,

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Speaker 1: But there's so much more going on. It'll give a

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Speaker 1: very good insight into just how much better the economy

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Speaker 1: was traveling in the September quarter. Consensus seems to be

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Speaker 1: for like two two and a half percent annualized rate

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Speaker 1: of growth.

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Speaker 2: That's actually not too bad. You'd like to be a

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Speaker 2: bit high, but it's not that far off trend. There

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Speaker 2: are also business indicators building approvals data out today and

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Speaker 2: tomorrow after last week's inflation data for October. Of course,

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Speaker 2: see chances of another rate cut. Miserly miserly chance rate cut.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's It's worth listening to the Kook,

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Speaker 1: Stephen Kokulis, who as a resident economist, because he just

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Speaker 1: explains all the pieces that go into the GDP and

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Speaker 1: the impact of last week's started, the surprise jump in inflation,

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Speaker 1: capital expenditure, and all of those pieces how they feed in.

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Speaker 1: It's a great explainer. I think that's why it's valuable

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Speaker 1: as well that if you've ever kind of not been

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Speaker 1: quite sure and haven't been perhaps a bit too afraid

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Speaker 1: to ask someone, I'm not afraid to admit what I

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Speaker 1: don't know, And so the Kook explains it all. That's

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Speaker 1: coming up after the show ASX listed Corporate Travel Management

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Speaker 1: Sean is in a world of pain, with the company

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Speaker 1: saying it has to reverse eighty million pounds of revenue

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Speaker 1: related to U customer contracts. That's got to hurt.

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Speaker 2: So Corporate Travel Management failed to release its half year

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Speaker 2: accounts in August, it's been its trading has been suspended

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Speaker 2: ever since. The company has said that restatements, presumably of

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Speaker 2: revenue and earnings might be required, and also withdrew guidance

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Speaker 2: for his European business, which it said was performing above targets.

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Speaker 2: Now On Friday, Corporate Travel Management said the chief executive

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Speaker 2: for the UK and Europe has been stood down with

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Speaker 2: immediate effect. This company still doesn't know when it will

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Speaker 2: be able to release its annual accounts. Media reports suggest

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Speaker 2: that Corporate Travel Management basically overcharged UK customers. That's the

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Speaker 2: allegation anyway, including the British government. Not a good look

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Speaker 2: for the company.

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Speaker 1: No turn into international news now and Canadian Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: Mark Carney has unveiled a sweeping energy plan with the

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Speaker 1: province of Alberta that paves the way for a new

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Speaker 1: oil pipeline, a massive carbon capture project, and the construction

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Speaker 1: of nuclear power for data centers.

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Speaker 2: The plan is aimed at reducing Canada's economic dependence on

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Speaker 2: the US and is meant to i quote, unlock the

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Speaker 2: full potential of Alberta's energy resources while creating hundreds of

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Speaker 2: thousands of new, high paying careers for Canadians. According to

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Speaker 2: the PM's office, Carne said Canada's tight interdependence with the US,

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Speaker 2: once a strength, is now a weakness. According to Bloomberg,

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Speaker 2: Canada shipped more than ninety five percent of its energy

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Speaker 2: exports to its neighbor last year before Donald Trump began

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Speaker 2: slapping tariff's on Canadian goods. I quote Carney, this is

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Speaker 2: a rupture, not a transition, which means our economic strategy

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Speaker 2: needs to change dramatically and rapidly. Nostalgia is not a strategy.

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Speaker 2: The US has changed. That's their right. We must respond.

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Speaker 2: That's our imperative, my real leadership from Mark Carney there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it seems to be to go from that

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Speaker 1: sean to this next story. It's quite the transition. Really.

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Speaker 1: Last week we had the story about most dogs descending

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Speaker 1: from wolves. They've done that kind of study of genes.

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Speaker 1: It feels only fair to balance things up and have

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Speaker 1: a cat story this week. And researchers have found that

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Speaker 1: cats me out more frequently when greeting male caregivers, probably

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Speaker 1: because men don't listen as well, do you?

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Speaker 2: Everyone's wonder are there are a bunch of scientists sitting

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Speaker 2: around the room thinking, what's going to be some really

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Speaker 2: weird stuff we can come up with?

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Speaker 1: This would be it? What's going to get people on

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Speaker 1: a podcast in Australia talking about I.

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Speaker 2: Know about it?

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Speaker 1: This one?

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Speaker 2: So they're study in the journal Ethology filmed inside cat

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Speaker 2: owners Homes. Now one of the big reasons we know

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Speaker 2: a lot more about dogs than cats is a practical one.

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Speaker 2: You bring a dog into a laboratory and watch it

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Speaker 2: behave without a lead on. You can't do that with

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Speaker 2: a cat. As simple as that. I mean, you can,

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Speaker 2: but they're just different creatures clearly. Anyway, the study found

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Speaker 2: that the cats meow more when men enter a room,

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Speaker 2: and this is in a report in the New York Times.

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Speaker 2: Across all demographic variables, so including the sex age of

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Speaker 2: the cat, pedigree status, number of cats in the home,

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Speaker 2: only one factor was linked to vocalization frequency, the biological

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Speaker 2: sex of the caregiver, and on average, cats produced four

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Speaker 2: point three meals in the first one hundred seconds of

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Speaker 2: a male caregiver getting home, compared to one point eight

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Speaker 2: with women. The team at Bilker University in Turkey hypothesized

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Speaker 2: that men require more explicit vocalizations to notice and respond

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Speaker 2: to the needs of their cats. In other words, men

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Speaker 2: don't listen as much cats just their behavior.

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Speaker 1: Accordingly, can you imagine being the researchers going to ask

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Speaker 1: for a grant to study that. We've got a theory,

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Speaker 1: we want to check it out. We have a couple

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Speaker 1: of hundred thousand dollars for this experiment oncastep. Yep, go

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Speaker 1: for it. That is pretty extraordinary. I love that. Up

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Speaker 1: next is Fear and Greed. Q and A mentioned this before.

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Speaker 1: Stephen could cool us our resident economist. It is coming

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Speaker 1: up next in the Fear and Greed playlist on your

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Speaker 1: podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot com dot au. Thank

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Speaker 1: you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael. It's Monday, the

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Speaker 1: first of December twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following

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Speaker 1: the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed. Have a great day.