WEBVTT - How Israel will strike back against Iran

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<v Speaker 1>From Schwartz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am,

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<v Speaker 1>one year on from the October seven attacks against Israel.

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<v Speaker 1>The region is bracing for more more. It seems almost

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<v Speaker 1>certain Israel will launch a retaliatory attack against Iran after

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<v Speaker 1>it fired ballistic missiles at Israel last week. Meanwhile, over

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<v Speaker 1>the weekend, Israel continued its air strikes on Lebanon, with

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<v Speaker 1>multiple explosions reported in the suburbs of the capital Beirut. Today,

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<v Speaker 1>Israel correspondent for the Economist Anshulfeffer on where the Middle

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<v Speaker 1>East is headed and how or if the fighting can end.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Monday, October seventh, So Angel, right now, it's Sunday morning,

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<v Speaker 1>where you are in Jerusalem, one day out from the

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<v Speaker 1>anniversary of the Harmas attacks on Israel that began this

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<v Speaker 1>chapter of conflict in the Middle East. What is it

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<v Speaker 1>like in Israel at this moment.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it's hard to properly I think mark the date,

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<v Speaker 2>both because there's still such a heavy feeling of trauma

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<v Speaker 2>which really hasn't dissipated here for an entire year of

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<v Speaker 2>that date. And you know, many Israelis are saying that

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<v Speaker 2>they still feel that they're still living in October seven

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<v Speaker 2>as a writer who wrote that today is the three

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<v Speaker 2>hundred and seventh day of October, and it's still for

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<v Speaker 2>many many Israel there isn't a feeling yet of perspective

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<v Speaker 2>of time that's passed. And I think what really is

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<v Speaker 2>making that's so difficult to gain that perspective is that

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<v Speaker 2>the country is still at war, and not just the

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<v Speaker 2>war in guards and now we're talking about a war

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<v Speaker 2>which is rapidly escalated in the a few weeks with

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<v Speaker 2>Hisbela in Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you tell me about the last few days in Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 1>What's been happening.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, I mean, the news is on everybody's screen around

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<v Speaker 2>the world. Tensions remain high in the Middle East following

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<v Speaker 2>further Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon and the occupied West

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<v Speaker 2>Bank overnight been carrying out a much wider campaign of

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<v Speaker 2>air strikes which are aimed at destroying as much of

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<v Speaker 2>his Blas military infrastructure in Lebanon. Sadly, it also means

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of suffering for civilians because most of Isbela's

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<v Speaker 2>military infrastructure, the missile arsenals and launchers, were built under

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<v Speaker 2>cities and villages and towns.

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<v Speaker 3>War in the skies and now on land to Israel's

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<v Speaker 3>first full scale ground incursion into Lebanon for nearly two

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<v Speaker 3>decades on Monday night, met little resistant.

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<v Speaker 2>And on the ground, the Israeli forces went in as

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<v Speaker 2>a week ago by now and began what the Israeli

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<v Speaker 2>Army says it's limited operation to clear the border area

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<v Speaker 2>from his launchers and tunnels and positions which were threatening

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<v Speaker 2>Israeli communities on the Israeli side of the border.

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<v Speaker 1>And as you said, Israel is now at war on

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<v Speaker 1>many fronts in Lebanon, but also still in Gaza. So

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<v Speaker 1>how has this escalation against Hezbola impacted what we're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>on the ground in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that the relatives scaling down of the ground

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<v Speaker 2>operations in Gaza, the fact that the israel Is now

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<v Speaker 2>deploying a much smaller force there than it did at

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<v Speaker 2>at the height of the war nine or ten months ago,

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<v Speaker 2>has also enabled is Or to pivot away from Gaza

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<v Speaker 2>and focus on leban And we're still seeing Israeli presence

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<v Speaker 2>in the two main corridors. And then there there are

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<v Speaker 2>occasional raids and operations in various parts of gars against

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<v Speaker 2>places where Hamas has re established its presence, so that

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<v Speaker 2>dynamic has been a situation for a few months by now,

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<v Speaker 2>and there is an argument within the Israeli leadership, mainly

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<v Speaker 2>between the military, the generals, the security chiefs, and the

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<v Speaker 2>Tanyaoan part of his government over whether it's or can

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<v Speaker 2>actually wind down the operations in ghars Are totally and

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<v Speaker 2>try and reach some kind of ceasefire agreement which will

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<v Speaker 2>also enable the release of Israeli hostages there. So we're

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<v Speaker 2>in that almost twilight period now in Ghuz. There still

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<v Speaker 2>is a war, but this scale is smaller than it

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<v Speaker 2>was before, and one is where in General described it

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<v Speaker 2>in an off record conversation a few days ago as

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<v Speaker 2>stagnation that these Raeli army isn't really happy with that

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<v Speaker 2>sort of unclear situation. They want a clearer goal there

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<v Speaker 2>which is not being provided by the government.

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<v Speaker 1>And last week we saw Iran's largest ever attack on

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<v Speaker 1>Israel with missiles aimed at military bases. Those missiles were

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<v Speaker 1>mostly intercepted, but how significant was the fact of Iran's intervention.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, if Iran has been a presence in this conflict

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<v Speaker 2>from the start, and it was a major backer of

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<v Speaker 2>hamas they supplied a lot of the know how, a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of the money for Hamas's arms which we use

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<v Speaker 2>on October seven. Supply the inspiration, on the other hand,

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<v Speaker 2>around almost certainly wasn't part of the actual decision to

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<v Speaker 2>launch October seven, And the timing doesn't seem to have

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<v Speaker 2>been very convenient for them, because their strategy has always

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<v Speaker 2>been a much more gradual strategy of building up these capabilities,

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<v Speaker 2>and then when Hamas rushed ahead on October seven, that

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<v Speaker 2>probably wasn't the best of timing for them that I

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<v Speaker 2>think they perhaps would have preferred to do this in

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<v Speaker 2>a more coordinated way. And the fact that Iran is

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<v Speaker 2>now twice back in April and then last week launched

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<v Speaker 2>these salvos of missiles at Israel means where we're at

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<v Speaker 2>a new stage where it's not just Iran arming and

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<v Speaker 2>directing its proxies to firing it on, but they also

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<v Speaker 2>found themselves and missiles strike didn't have that much of

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<v Speaker 2>an impact, But what it has done is it has

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<v Speaker 2>made it clear that we are now at this stage

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<v Speaker 2>of a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, and Israel

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<v Speaker 2>is now going to have to retaliate this, and some,

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<v Speaker 2>in fact, some Israeli military chieftain. I think the Tagno

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<v Speaker 2>himself were actually quite pleased that they had this opportunity

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<v Speaker 2>or what they call the legitimacy, to strike directly against Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's that's a whole new stage of this war

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<v Speaker 2>that we're still waiting to see how it plays.

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<v Speaker 1>Out coming up after the break. Benjamin Nya, who's calculations

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<v Speaker 1>on when and how to attack Iran, Angel Benjamina, who

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<v Speaker 1>has said that Israel has a quote duty to strike

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<v Speaker 1>back against Iran and will do so. And he also

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<v Speaker 1>said there is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach.

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<v Speaker 1>So tell me what do you think the calculations are

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<v Speaker 1>that that now he was making as he decides in

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<v Speaker 1>this moment how to respond to we ran well.

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<v Speaker 2>I think there are three calculations here. One is what

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<v Speaker 2>indeed Original's capabilities in the and others ready chiefs have

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<v Speaker 2>said that is Or can hit anywhere in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 2>Technically it's true, so that's the operational calculation. Then there's

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<v Speaker 2>a wider international calculation that any serious type of operation

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<v Speaker 2>is Or would need some level of cooperation from the

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<v Speaker 2>Americans and perhaps from other other allies. Both here in

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<v Speaker 2>the region and international allies that the question is what

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<v Speaker 2>are they willing to do and what kind of operation

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<v Speaker 2>they're willing to take in to cooperate in that limits

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<v Speaker 2>well can do. And then the third calculation is what

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<v Speaker 2>Israel should do with this opportunity. And as far as

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<v Speaker 2>Minter the Als concern, the way he sees it, the

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<v Speaker 2>Iranian strike last week has given him an opportunity and

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<v Speaker 2>many things he'd like to do with this sort of

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<v Speaker 2>justified retaliation. And that's why we're hearing talk and I

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<v Speaker 2>know this is something that is being discussed of Israel

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<v Speaker 2>going against Iran's jewel in the crown, the nuclear sights,

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<v Speaker 2>which is something obviously that America and other Western allies

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<v Speaker 2>are perhaps less eager to see happen. At this point.

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<v Speaker 1>A Sel Benjamin Netanya, who vowed to destroy Hamas and

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<v Speaker 1>bring all of the hostages home, he has not been

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<v Speaker 1>able to do that. So as the war has expanded,

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<v Speaker 1>how have Israel's stated aims changed and what are they now?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the state of aims were at the beginning were

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<v Speaker 2>to destroy Hamas's military capabilities and its governance in Gaza

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<v Speaker 2>and to return the hostages, and a couple of weeks ago,

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<v Speaker 2>they added another ada to allow Israeli citizens in the

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<v Speaker 2>north to return to their homes, those sixty to seventy

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<v Speaker 2>thousand Israelis who were forced to leave their homes in

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<v Speaker 2>northern Israel because of Risbolla firing rockets on their homes.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's the addition of Lebanon to the war aims

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<v Speaker 2>is the one change here. But the truth is that

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<v Speaker 2>the war aims are sort of these words on a

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<v Speaker 2>piece of paper or in a government statement. The real

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<v Speaker 2>question of what's the endgame, how Israel sees guards as

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<v Speaker 2>seas its relationship with Garza on the day after this war,

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<v Speaker 2>same thing with Lebanon. What kind of cease fire with

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<v Speaker 2>his Bola? You will allow an end to the war

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<v Speaker 2>in Lebanon and for a return of Israeli citizens there,

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<v Speaker 2>and for obviously a return for the Lebanese citizens have

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<v Speaker 2>been uprooted by this war. None of these things are clear,

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<v Speaker 2>and none of these things are being stated in the

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<v Speaker 2>same way that we still don't know beyond these slogans

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<v Speaker 2>of Israel will retaliate forcefully against Iran, we don't really

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<v Speaker 2>know what the Israeli government is hoping to achieve in

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<v Speaker 2>this retaliation. Yes, there will be a retaliation, but then

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<v Speaker 2>what will this just be aspiraling a series of attacks

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<v Speaker 2>going back and forth with a point which is all

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<v Speaker 2>will feel that it's achieved what it needs to achieve.

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<v Speaker 2>So you know, you can talk about war aims, but

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<v Speaker 2>the problem is is that there's no clarity really on that.

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<v Speaker 1>So angel as we speak, the entire region is on

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<v Speaker 1>a knife stage. We've heard Israel promise a retaliatory attack

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<v Speaker 1>on Iran. Iran in turn has said that any attack

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<v Speaker 1>would be met with a quote unconventional response from them.

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<v Speaker 1>So this is the most tense moment in the Middle

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<v Speaker 1>East in decades. Can you see a way that the

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<v Speaker 1>situation could de escalate? Is that even still possible at

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<v Speaker 1>this moment?

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<v Speaker 2>I think it'd be very very premature to predict the

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<v Speaker 2>escalation because every point in the the last year when

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<v Speaker 2>we thought maybe here you can reach some kind of

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<v Speaker 2>a deal or the escalation, something happened to further escalate matters.

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<v Speaker 2>And even as I said before, but when Guards has

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<v Speaker 2>seemed to be winding down, then that his Bolan Lebanon

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<v Speaker 2>escalated and then Iran escalated. So there isn't one easy

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<v Speaker 2>path here out of this, and with Iran. The real

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<v Speaker 2>question is what's their calculation. Do they have a point

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<v Speaker 2>where they feel that also they're going to unleash everything

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<v Speaker 2>that they have, or is the pressure on them and

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<v Speaker 2>they have their own issues at home. They've got an

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<v Speaker 2>economy which is on the brink of collapse, They've got

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of unrest within Iran. Does that at some

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<v Speaker 2>point deter them from escalating? That obviously is to do

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<v Speaker 2>with what Israel is going to do. How calibrated will

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<v Speaker 2>Israel's response be? And it looked for it for almost

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<v Speaker 2>ten a month or so that his Balala Iran was

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<v Speaker 2>sort of keeping to this very measured type of wharf.

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<v Speaker 2>They were only Irather than find direct except once in April,

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<v Speaker 2>because but our find only at Israeli communities and bases

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<v Speaker 2>near the border. And they made this assumption that Israel

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<v Speaker 2>wouldn't escalate because this one would fear as well as

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<v Speaker 2>missiles attack, a hitting tail I live and so on.

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<v Speaker 2>That that turned out to be a mistake by Isbell

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<v Speaker 2>and Iran and Australia has now paid for that mistake

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<v Speaker 2>with his life. So at some point, you know, the

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<v Speaker 2>science will have to step back. But their calculations until

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<v Speaker 2>now have proven to be wrong. They haven't managed to

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<v Speaker 2>calibrate their responses to allowing that room for maneuver and

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<v Speaker 2>for walking back from the brink, which is why we

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<v Speaker 2>are at this point we are now, and I don't

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<v Speaker 2>think that it's going to be at all simple to

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<v Speaker 2>de escualas anything. That for the next days and weeks,

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<v Speaker 2>Israel will be using this opportunity, certainly Eleben and to

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<v Speaker 2>continue striking acts as well as infrastructure. There are question

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<v Speaker 2>ken Iran sort of say, okay, we find these missiles

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<v Speaker 2>against Israel, we hit them, and whatever Isuel does now,

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<v Speaker 2>we take what we've done as our win. And like

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<v Speaker 2>I say, it very much depends on what Isuel does next.

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<v Speaker 2>And so I'm really sorry, but I can't give you

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<v Speaker 2>any kind of positive idea of a de escalation right

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<v Speaker 2>now because I don't see one.

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<v Speaker 1>Angel. Thank you so much for your time.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you. I'm sorry I can't give you any kind

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<v Speaker 2>of optimistic outlook, but it isn't well much right right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news today, thousands of pro Palestinian protesters

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<v Speaker 1>gathered in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide. Yesterday. Around seven thousand

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<v Speaker 1>people attended the demonstration in Melbourne, and police said they

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<v Speaker 1>were overall pleased with the behavior of attendees, although four

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<v Speaker 1>people were arrested for public order related matters. In New

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<v Speaker 1>South Wales, police had initially sought to block the Sydney

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<v Speaker 1>rally from going ahead, but an agreement was reached with

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<v Speaker 1>organizers to march an alternate route away from the Great Synagogue,

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<v Speaker 1>Sidney's oldest Jewish congregation. The ABC reports that one man

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<v Speaker 1>was arrested in Sydney for carrying an Israeli flag with

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<v Speaker 1>a swastika in place of the Star of David and

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump has held a campaign rally in Pennsylvania at

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<v Speaker 1>the exact place he was nearly assassinated in July. Pennsylvania

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<v Speaker 1>is a critical swing state in this year's presidential election.

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<v Speaker 1>Mister Trump picked up where he left off after the

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<v Speaker 1>bullet grazed his ear, beginning his speech with the words

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<v Speaker 1>as I was saying, and continuing to discuss immigration, which

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<v Speaker 1>he had been talking about when he was shot at

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<v Speaker 1>Elon Musk was present in the crowd, with the billionaire

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<v Speaker 1>jumping on stage at one point and declaring that mister

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<v Speaker 1>Trump had saved free speech. I'm Ruby Jones, this is

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<v Speaker 1>seven am. Thanks for listening,