Speaker 1: From Schwartz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am,
Speaker 1: one year on from the October seven attacks against Israel.
Speaker 1: The region is bracing for more more. It seems almost
Speaker 1: certain Israel will launch a retaliatory attack against Iran after
Speaker 1: it fired ballistic missiles at Israel last week. Meanwhile, over
Speaker 1: the weekend, Israel continued its air strikes on Lebanon, with
Speaker 1: multiple explosions reported in the suburbs of the capital Beirut. Today,
Speaker 1: Israel correspondent for the Economist Anshulfeffer on where the Middle
Speaker 1: East is headed and how or if the fighting can end.
Speaker 1: It's Monday, October seventh, So Angel, right now, it's Sunday morning,
Speaker 1: where you are in Jerusalem, one day out from the
Speaker 1: anniversary of the Harmas attacks on Israel that began this
Speaker 1: chapter of conflict in the Middle East. What is it
Speaker 1: like in Israel at this moment.
Speaker 2: Well, it's hard to properly I think mark the date,
Speaker 2: both because there's still such a heavy feeling of trauma
Speaker 2: which really hasn't dissipated here for an entire year of
Speaker 2: that date. And you know, many Israelis are saying that
Speaker 2: they still feel that they're still living in October seven
Speaker 2: as a writer who wrote that today is the three
Speaker 2: hundred and seventh day of October, and it's still for
Speaker 2: many many Israel there isn't a feeling yet of perspective
Speaker 2: of time that's passed. And I think what really is
Speaker 2: making that's so difficult to gain that perspective is that
Speaker 2: the country is still at war, and not just the
Speaker 2: war in guards and now we're talking about a war
Speaker 2: which is rapidly escalated in the a few weeks with
Speaker 2: Hisbela in Lebanon.
Speaker 1: Can you tell me about the last few days in Lebanon.
Speaker 1: What's been happening.
Speaker 2: Oh, I mean, the news is on everybody's screen around
Speaker 2: the world. Tensions remain high in the Middle East following
Speaker 2: further Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon and the occupied West
Speaker 2: Bank overnight been carrying out a much wider campaign of
Speaker 2: air strikes which are aimed at destroying as much of
Speaker 2: his Blas military infrastructure in Lebanon. Sadly, it also means
Speaker 2: a lot of suffering for civilians because most of Isbela's
Speaker 2: military infrastructure, the missile arsenals and launchers, were built under
Speaker 2: cities and villages and towns.
Speaker 3: War in the skies and now on land to Israel's
Speaker 3: first full scale ground incursion into Lebanon for nearly two
Speaker 3: decades on Monday night, met little resistant.
Speaker 2: And on the ground, the Israeli forces went in as
Speaker 2: a week ago by now and began what the Israeli
Speaker 2: Army says it's limited operation to clear the border area
Speaker 2: from his launchers and tunnels and positions which were threatening
Speaker 2: Israeli communities on the Israeli side of the border.
Speaker 1: And as you said, Israel is now at war on
Speaker 1: many fronts in Lebanon, but also still in Gaza. So
Speaker 1: how has this escalation against Hezbola impacted what we're seeing
Speaker 1: on the ground in Gaza.
Speaker 2: I think that the relatives scaling down of the ground
Speaker 2: operations in Gaza, the fact that the israel Is now
Speaker 2: deploying a much smaller force there than it did at
Speaker 2: at the height of the war nine or ten months ago,
Speaker 2: has also enabled is Or to pivot away from Gaza
Speaker 2: and focus on leban And we're still seeing Israeli presence
Speaker 2: in the two main corridors. And then there there are
Speaker 2: occasional raids and operations in various parts of gars against
Speaker 2: places where Hamas has re established its presence, so that
Speaker 2: dynamic has been a situation for a few months by now,
Speaker 2: and there is an argument within the Israeli leadership, mainly
Speaker 2: between the military, the generals, the security chiefs, and the
Speaker 2: Tanyaoan part of his government over whether it's or can
Speaker 2: actually wind down the operations in ghars Are totally and
Speaker 2: try and reach some kind of ceasefire agreement which will
Speaker 2: also enable the release of Israeli hostages there. So we're
Speaker 2: in that almost twilight period now in Ghuz. There still
Speaker 2: is a war, but this scale is smaller than it
Speaker 2: was before, and one is where in General described it
Speaker 2: in an off record conversation a few days ago as
Speaker 2: stagnation that these Raeli army isn't really happy with that
Speaker 2: sort of unclear situation. They want a clearer goal there
Speaker 2: which is not being provided by the government.
Speaker 1: And last week we saw Iran's largest ever attack on
Speaker 1: Israel with missiles aimed at military bases. Those missiles were
Speaker 1: mostly intercepted, but how significant was the fact of Iran's intervention.
Speaker 2: Well, if Iran has been a presence in this conflict
Speaker 2: from the start, and it was a major backer of
Speaker 2: hamas they supplied a lot of the know how, a
Speaker 2: lot of the money for Hamas's arms which we use
Speaker 2: on October seven. Supply the inspiration, on the other hand,
Speaker 2: around almost certainly wasn't part of the actual decision to
Speaker 2: launch October seven, And the timing doesn't seem to have
Speaker 2: been very convenient for them, because their strategy has always
Speaker 2: been a much more gradual strategy of building up these capabilities,
Speaker 2: and then when Hamas rushed ahead on October seven, that
Speaker 2: probably wasn't the best of timing for them that I
Speaker 2: think they perhaps would have preferred to do this in
Speaker 2: a more coordinated way. And the fact that Iran is
Speaker 2: now twice back in April and then last week launched
Speaker 2: these salvos of missiles at Israel means where we're at
Speaker 2: a new stage where it's not just Iran arming and
Speaker 2: directing its proxies to firing it on, but they also
Speaker 2: found themselves and missiles strike didn't have that much of
Speaker 2: an impact, But what it has done is it has
Speaker 2: made it clear that we are now at this stage
Speaker 2: of a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, and Israel
Speaker 2: is now going to have to retaliate this, and some,
Speaker 2: in fact, some Israeli military chieftain. I think the Tagno
Speaker 2: himself were actually quite pleased that they had this opportunity
Speaker 2: or what they call the legitimacy, to strike directly against Iran.
Speaker 2: And that's that's a whole new stage of this war
Speaker 2: that we're still waiting to see how it plays.
Speaker 1: Out coming up after the break. Benjamin Nya, who's calculations
Speaker 1: on when and how to attack Iran, Angel Benjamina, who
Speaker 1: has said that Israel has a quote duty to strike
Speaker 1: back against Iran and will do so. And he also
Speaker 1: said there is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach.
Speaker 1: So tell me what do you think the calculations are
Speaker 1: that that now he was making as he decides in
Speaker 1: this moment how to respond to we ran well.
Speaker 2: I think there are three calculations here. One is what
Speaker 2: indeed Original's capabilities in the and others ready chiefs have
Speaker 2: said that is Or can hit anywhere in the Middle East.
Speaker 2: Technically it's true, so that's the operational calculation. Then there's
Speaker 2: a wider international calculation that any serious type of operation
Speaker 2: is Or would need some level of cooperation from the
Speaker 2: Americans and perhaps from other other allies. Both here in
Speaker 2: the region and international allies that the question is what
Speaker 2: are they willing to do and what kind of operation
Speaker 2: they're willing to take in to cooperate in that limits
Speaker 2: well can do. And then the third calculation is what
Speaker 2: Israel should do with this opportunity. And as far as
Speaker 2: Minter the Als concern, the way he sees it, the
Speaker 2: Iranian strike last week has given him an opportunity and
Speaker 2: many things he'd like to do with this sort of
Speaker 2: justified retaliation. And that's why we're hearing talk and I
Speaker 2: know this is something that is being discussed of Israel
Speaker 2: going against Iran's jewel in the crown, the nuclear sights,
Speaker 2: which is something obviously that America and other Western allies
Speaker 2: are perhaps less eager to see happen. At this point.
Speaker 1: A Sel Benjamin Netanya, who vowed to destroy Hamas and
Speaker 1: bring all of the hostages home, he has not been
Speaker 1: able to do that. So as the war has expanded,
Speaker 1: how have Israel's stated aims changed and what are they now?
Speaker 2: Well, the state of aims were at the beginning were
Speaker 2: to destroy Hamas's military capabilities and its governance in Gaza
Speaker 2: and to return the hostages, and a couple of weeks ago,
Speaker 2: they added another ada to allow Israeli citizens in the
Speaker 2: north to return to their homes, those sixty to seventy
Speaker 2: thousand Israelis who were forced to leave their homes in
Speaker 2: northern Israel because of Risbolla firing rockets on their homes.
Speaker 2: So that's the addition of Lebanon to the war aims
Speaker 2: is the one change here. But the truth is that
Speaker 2: the war aims are sort of these words on a
Speaker 2: piece of paper or in a government statement. The real
Speaker 2: question of what's the endgame, how Israel sees guards as
Speaker 2: seas its relationship with Garza on the day after this war,
Speaker 2: same thing with Lebanon. What kind of cease fire with
Speaker 2: his Bola? You will allow an end to the war
Speaker 2: in Lebanon and for a return of Israeli citizens there,
Speaker 2: and for obviously a return for the Lebanese citizens have
Speaker 2: been uprooted by this war. None of these things are clear,
Speaker 2: and none of these things are being stated in the
Speaker 2: same way that we still don't know beyond these slogans
Speaker 2: of Israel will retaliate forcefully against Iran, we don't really
Speaker 2: know what the Israeli government is hoping to achieve in
Speaker 2: this retaliation. Yes, there will be a retaliation, but then
Speaker 2: what will this just be aspiraling a series of attacks
Speaker 2: going back and forth with a point which is all
Speaker 2: will feel that it's achieved what it needs to achieve.
Speaker 2: So you know, you can talk about war aims, but
Speaker 2: the problem is is that there's no clarity really on that.
Speaker 1: So angel as we speak, the entire region is on
Speaker 1: a knife stage. We've heard Israel promise a retaliatory attack
Speaker 1: on Iran. Iran in turn has said that any attack
Speaker 1: would be met with a quote unconventional response from them.
Speaker 1: So this is the most tense moment in the Middle
Speaker 1: East in decades. Can you see a way that the
Speaker 1: situation could de escalate? Is that even still possible at
Speaker 1: this moment?
Speaker 2: I think it'd be very very premature to predict the
Speaker 2: escalation because every point in the the last year when
Speaker 2: we thought maybe here you can reach some kind of
Speaker 2: a deal or the escalation, something happened to further escalate matters.
Speaker 2: And even as I said before, but when Guards has
Speaker 2: seemed to be winding down, then that his Bolan Lebanon
Speaker 2: escalated and then Iran escalated. So there isn't one easy
Speaker 2: path here out of this, and with Iran. The real
Speaker 2: question is what's their calculation. Do they have a point
Speaker 2: where they feel that also they're going to unleash everything
Speaker 2: that they have, or is the pressure on them and
Speaker 2: they have their own issues at home. They've got an
Speaker 2: economy which is on the brink of collapse, They've got
Speaker 2: a lot of unrest within Iran. Does that at some
Speaker 2: point deter them from escalating? That obviously is to do
Speaker 2: with what Israel is going to do. How calibrated will
Speaker 2: Israel's response be? And it looked for it for almost
Speaker 2: ten a month or so that his Balala Iran was
Speaker 2: sort of keeping to this very measured type of wharf.
Speaker 2: They were only Irather than find direct except once in April,
Speaker 2: because but our find only at Israeli communities and bases
Speaker 2: near the border. And they made this assumption that Israel
Speaker 2: wouldn't escalate because this one would fear as well as
Speaker 2: missiles attack, a hitting tail I live and so on.
Speaker 2: That that turned out to be a mistake by Isbell
Speaker 2: and Iran and Australia has now paid for that mistake
Speaker 2: with his life. So at some point, you know, the
Speaker 2: science will have to step back. But their calculations until
Speaker 2: now have proven to be wrong. They haven't managed to
Speaker 2: calibrate their responses to allowing that room for maneuver and
Speaker 2: for walking back from the brink, which is why we
Speaker 2: are at this point we are now, and I don't
Speaker 2: think that it's going to be at all simple to
Speaker 2: de escualas anything. That for the next days and weeks,
Speaker 2: Israel will be using this opportunity, certainly Eleben and to
Speaker 2: continue striking acts as well as infrastructure. There are question
Speaker 2: ken Iran sort of say, okay, we find these missiles
Speaker 2: against Israel, we hit them, and whatever Isuel does now,
Speaker 2: we take what we've done as our win. And like
Speaker 2: I say, it very much depends on what Isuel does next.
Speaker 2: And so I'm really sorry, but I can't give you
Speaker 2: any kind of positive idea of a de escalation right
Speaker 2: now because I don't see one.
Speaker 1: Angel. Thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 2: Thank you. I'm sorry I can't give you any kind
Speaker 2: of optimistic outlook, but it isn't well much right right now.
Speaker 1: Also in the news today, thousands of pro Palestinian protesters
Speaker 1: gathered in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide. Yesterday. Around seven thousand
Speaker 1: people attended the demonstration in Melbourne, and police said they
Speaker 1: were overall pleased with the behavior of attendees, although four
Speaker 1: people were arrested for public order related matters. In New
Speaker 1: South Wales, police had initially sought to block the Sydney
Speaker 1: rally from going ahead, but an agreement was reached with
Speaker 1: organizers to march an alternate route away from the Great Synagogue,
Speaker 1: Sidney's oldest Jewish congregation. The ABC reports that one man
Speaker 1: was arrested in Sydney for carrying an Israeli flag with
Speaker 1: a swastika in place of the Star of David and
Speaker 1: Donald Trump has held a campaign rally in Pennsylvania at
Speaker 1: the exact place he was nearly assassinated in July. Pennsylvania
Speaker 1: is a critical swing state in this year's presidential election.
Speaker 1: Mister Trump picked up where he left off after the
Speaker 1: bullet grazed his ear, beginning his speech with the words
Speaker 1: as I was saying, and continuing to discuss immigration, which
Speaker 1: he had been talking about when he was shot at
Speaker 1: Elon Musk was present in the crowd, with the billionaire
Speaker 1: jumping on stage at one point and declaring that mister
Speaker 1: Trump had saved free speech. I'm Ruby Jones, this is
Speaker 1: seven am. Thanks for listening,