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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. Two of the country's biggest

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Speaker 1: companies report profits and one pleases while the other disappoints.

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi is cautiously optimistic that the Trump

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Speaker 1: administration won't levy tariffs on Australians steel and aluminium and

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Speaker 1: get ready for more expensive bananas and sugar. Plus, Ossie

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Speaker 1: Post does a deal to open more bank branches in

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Speaker 1: the Bush and consumers and businesses are slightly less grumpy

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Speaker 1: than they were at the end of last year. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed, daily business news for people who

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Speaker 1: make their own decisions. It is Wednesday, the twelfth of

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Speaker 1: February twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning

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Speaker 1: Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. Two of the country's biggest

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Speaker 1: and arguably least understood companies outside financial markets reported yesterday

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Speaker 1: and one was poorly received and the other one was

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Speaker 1: well received. We'll start with CSL. See USL's share price

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Speaker 1: well five percent yesterday after the blood Plasma group announced

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Speaker 1: a solid result but said lower vaccination rates in the

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Speaker 1: US hurt first half sales for its vaccination business.

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Speaker 2: CSL is Australia's third biggest company. One hundred and twenty

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Speaker 2: six billion dollars is what it's worth, behind Commonwealth Bank

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Speaker 2: and PHP. It ran really hard in the decade pre

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Speaker 2: COVID struggle because of course the services it was offering

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Speaker 2: basically closed down and it's never fully recovered. In fact,

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Speaker 2: it's down. Csl' share price down eight percent in the

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Speaker 2: last year while the market's up twelve percent. A lot

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Speaker 2: of its operations are in the US. It has three

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Speaker 2: main businesses. The first one CSL Bearing, which is blood

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Speaker 2: plasma Collections group. It's going pretty well. Two thirds of

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Speaker 2: revenue comes from that business. Margins have been squeezed as

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Speaker 2: CSL has had to pay more to attract blood donors

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Speaker 2: in the US. Been a bit of a problem, but

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Speaker 2: generally that business is okay. Second business, Sekurus provider vaccination.

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Speaker 2: Not so good when your biggest market is the US

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Speaker 2: and the new boss of health in the US is

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Speaker 2: an anti Vaxxa problem there. The third part, Viefer, is

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Speaker 2: an iron deficiency business. It's only been owned for two years. Finally,

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Speaker 2: there are some signs of improvements with sales up there,

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Speaker 2: but it hasn't been a good business thus far, so

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Speaker 2: plenty in sales sales results yesterday to worry analysts Sean.

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Speaker 1: The other company is Macquarie Group. It gave a quarterly

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Speaker 1: update and the financial behemoth so that things are on

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Speaker 1: track with earnings in its asset management business offsetting lower

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Speaker 1: earnings and other parts of the business, those parts that

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Speaker 1: are reliant on global markets and commodities trading.

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Speaker 2: Now, I defy anyone, including the CEO Shamara Wikramena Yaka,

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Speaker 2: to fully explain in English what Macquarie does. It seems

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Speaker 2: to have its finger in all sorts of pies. And

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Speaker 2: that's actually what remeny Yark was talking about yesterday. It

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Speaker 2: said it has so many different businesses that that diversity

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Speaker 2: means it actually will perform well no matter what the

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Speaker 2: economic cycle. Yesterday there was a lot of attention around

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Speaker 2: its green assets. So it's selling a European solar energy

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Speaker 2: developer and an offshore wind developer. Now, remeny Yark says

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Speaker 2: she wasn't concerned about the company's green assets in the

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Speaker 2: US given the Trump administrations lack of enthusiasm for such assets.

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Speaker 2: She says if some of these assets take longer to sell,

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Speaker 2: then they're closer to production and worthmore point of this

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Speaker 2: story is it's incredible how Donald Trump and the administration

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Speaker 2: what he has said in the last three weeks has

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Speaker 2: affected companies like Mcquarie Bank. All in all, the share

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Speaker 2: price closed up two percent. Those analysts who argue that

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Speaker 2: they do know what's going on inside the walls of

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Speaker 2: Mcquarie Bank thought it was a pretty good result. Sean.

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Speaker 1: I was just while you were talking just then, I

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Speaker 1: was thinking about the what you said before about the

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Speaker 1: blood donors in the US, and it always feels so strange,

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Speaker 1: doesn't it that donors in the States are paid for

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Speaker 1: these and that that's actually a cost to CSL that

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Speaker 1: they need to factor into this because it's just not

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Speaker 1: something that happens in Australia, so it feels entirely foreign

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Speaker 1: to us. And I was just looking up to see

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Speaker 1: how much it costs, and so for blood plasma, for instance,

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Speaker 1: payments can range between thirty to eighty US dollars per donation,

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Speaker 1: so fairly size.

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Speaker 2: That's a lot of money.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly is anyway, just a little bit of bonus

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Speaker 1: info there for you today, Sean. The local market, we've

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Speaker 1: talked about CSL, we've talked about Macquarie. What about the

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Speaker 1: rest of the ax.

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Speaker 2: Plenty of results will come to a couple more in

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Speaker 2: a moment. The S and PAX two hundred initially rose

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Speaker 2: and then spent most of the rest of the day falling.

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Speaker 2: Finished pretty much unchanged eight thousand, four hundred and eighty

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Speaker 2: four points, broadly a good day for industrials and tech companies,

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Speaker 2: not so much for energy and healthcare stocks. In the

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Speaker 2: back of that CSL result, gold hit a new record yesterday.

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Speaker 2: The gold companies did very well. It's not quite at

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Speaker 2: that three thousand US dollars an ounce figure, but it's

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Speaker 2: getting very very close. And lithium stocks fell back after

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Speaker 2: news had a major lithium producer in China had restarted operations.

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Speaker 2: Line Town Resources, big lithium producer here. It was down

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Speaker 2: nine percent, the worst of the top two hundred sean.

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Speaker 1: The federal government is cautiously optimistic that Donald Trump's administration

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Speaker 1: will not levy tariffs on Australian steel and ol aluminium.

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Speaker 1: When we're talking about this this time yesterday, there was

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Speaker 1: a great deal of uncertainty over it, and that was

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Speaker 1: a head of the Prime Minister's call to the President.

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Speaker 1: Were now on the other side of that call. Still

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Speaker 1: a bit of uncertainty around it, though, isn't there there is?

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Speaker 2: So the two spoke for forty minutes, the first call

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Speaker 2: since Donald Trump became president, and the Albanez he said,

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Speaker 2: he had a great conversation and the US Australia relationship

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Speaker 2: is in good shape. Donald Trump told reporters he was

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Speaker 2: considering a carve out because Australia is one of the

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Speaker 2: very few nations with which the US has a trade surplus.

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Speaker 2: He described Anthony Alberzi as, I quote, a very fine man.

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Speaker 2: He then went on to highlight the fact that the

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Speaker 2: reason Australia has a trade surplus, as in we spend

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Speaker 2: more money in the US does in Australia, was because

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Speaker 2: Australia buys planes, particularly virgin and quantas from Boeing. That

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Speaker 2: helps our the trade balance there, at least in Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump's eyes. Mister Albaneze, he said, he pushed that trade

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Speaker 2: surplus line. He also talked about bilateral defense and security

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Speaker 2: relations between the two, the fact that there's a bilateral

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Speaker 2: free trade agreement they agreed to say that an exemption

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Speaker 2: is under consideration. We're not there yet, and certainly Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump is signing in a new tariff yesterday canceled exemptions

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Speaker 2: and duty free quotas for other major supplies like Canada,

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Speaker 2: Mexico and Brazil. But the PM is just a little

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Speaker 2: bit cautiously confident, shall we say?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? I like that. Now, after the show, Sean, you

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Speaker 1: have an interview coming up with doctor Kevin Hebner, who

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Speaker 1: is the global investment strategist at Epoch Investment Partners. Now,

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Speaker 1: this conversation started in one place, finished in an entirely

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Speaker 1: different place, and it was fascinating.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So we started about AI and whether or not

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Speaker 2: we're in a boom something like the late nineteen nineties,

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Speaker 2: and went to a break and we came back and

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Speaker 2: we just got stuck into tariff's And I think this

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Speaker 2: is the first time that someone has given me a

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Speaker 2: good rationale for why Donald Trump is leaving tariffs around

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Speaker 2: the world, and not a value judgment whether it's good

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Speaker 2: or bad. He just said, this is the thing behind it,

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Speaker 2: and this is why the Trump administration thinks it's a

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Speaker 2: good reason to do it. And it's well worth a listen.

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Speaker 1: Oh it so is it is coming up after the show.

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Speaker 1: We've got plenty more to come. Shan we're talking banana

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Speaker 1: and sugar prices rising, got more bank branches in the bush,

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Speaker 1: elon Musk's bid to buy a chat JBT, Big, Big Show.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back in a month with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news. Sean banana and sugar prices are

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Speaker 1: set to jump on the back of the North Queensland floods.

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Speaker 2: Treasury estimates that up to twenty percent of Australia's banana

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Speaker 2: crop could be affected by the disaster the rain that

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Speaker 2: we've had in recent weeks. There's also damage to road

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Speaker 2: networks that's hurting supply chains. Jim Chalmers, a treasurist, of

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Speaker 2: the flood affected region accounts for about four percent of

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Speaker 2: agricultural production in Australia. What it means is that some

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Speaker 2: things like sugar and bananas could get a lot more expensive,

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Speaker 2: but it's sort of a narrow number of goods. That's

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Speaker 2: a good point in terms of total economic activity in

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Speaker 2: the economy. The floods will amount to by zero point

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Speaker 2: one percentage point reduction in March. Great doesn't sound like March, right,

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Speaker 2: but we only grew zero point eight percent last year,

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Speaker 2: so zero point one percentage point is quite a.

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Speaker 1: Bit sewn is quickly on bananas. Over the weekend we

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Speaker 1: received a note from Buster, who listens to Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greedy works and lives in Far North Queensland. This was fantastic.

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Speaker 1: He sent us a couple of pictures and a message

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Speaker 1: via Instagram and he said that because of the floodwaters

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Speaker 1: in Far North Queensland, they hadn't had a delivery of

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Speaker 1: groceries for several days into a lot of the supermarkets

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Speaker 1: up there, but what they did have essentially is this

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Speaker 1: oversupply of local bananas. And so the pictures that he

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Speaker 1: sent us, and we did share these on Instagram over

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Speaker 1: the weekend is just in your fruit and red section

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Speaker 1: of the supermarket, bay after bay after bay full of

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Speaker 1: the most fantastic looking bananas, and they're all on sale

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Speaker 1: for two dollars fifty a kilo, and every single other

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Speaker 1: space in the supermarket is empty. It is just bananas.

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Speaker 1: So if you like bananas, you are set. So thank

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Speaker 1: you Buster for sending those ones through Sean. There'll be

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Speaker 1: more bank branches in the Bush with the Federal government

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Speaker 1: increasing funding for Australia Posts. Banking operations currently come off

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Speaker 1: Bank National, Australia Bank and Westpac have a deal with

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Speaker 1: Australia Post so that it offers banking services in some

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Speaker 1: regional location. Ain Zed has always stayed out of that.

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Speaker 1: It's decided it will jump in. Mcquarie and HSBC are

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Speaker 1: in negotiations about doing it. Ozzie Post outlets will in

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Speaker 1: some regions now offer banking services. They're the regions that

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Speaker 1: they didn't before. The government is checking in some money

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Speaker 1: on that one treasure. Jim Chalmers said. Thirty six percent

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Speaker 1: of bank branches in regional Australia have closed since twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 1: but this should stop any more from closing sewn. Consumers

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Speaker 1: are slowly getting happier or less grumpy, I suppose, but

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Speaker 1: business sentiment continues to remain depressed.

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Speaker 2: The Westpac Melbourne Institute's survey was unchanged in February. Still

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Speaker 2: a negative territory, Still a miserable bunch, three years of misery,

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Speaker 2: worse since the nine a nineties. However, Michael, the trend

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Speaker 2: is your friend, and at least we're less miserable than

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Speaker 2: we were before. That's the good news when it comes

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Speaker 2: to consumers in business land. The National Australia Bank Survey

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Speaker 2: says conditions continue to trend down. Those sentiment looks to

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Speaker 2: have stabilized, Unlike consumers businesses, at least they've stabilized in

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Speaker 2: positive territory. Combined, they probably suggest the worst is behind

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Speaker 2: for the Australian economy.

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Speaker 1: It's a pretty good day yesterday for the media companies,

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Speaker 1: with nine share price jumping thirteen percent and seven West

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Speaker 1: up six percent. That's after the latter said that the

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Speaker 1: ad market is showing signs of turning.

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Speaker 2: So seven West Media is part of the Stakes family empire,

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Speaker 2: now's the big drop in profit. It's actually part of

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Speaker 2: a company called SGH formerly known as seven Group for

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Speaker 2: all West track business. Some of those companies are in

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Speaker 2: that one. The good news for seven West Media is

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Speaker 2: a jump in the size of its digital audience streaming

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Speaker 2: services seven plus that type of stuff. In fact, three

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Speaker 2: hundred and forty seven thousand new registered users signed up

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Speaker 2: on the back of the Sri Lankan cricket tour that

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Speaker 2: Australia has just had over there. The good news on

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Speaker 2: that front, particularly around the advertising, helped Nine, which is

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Speaker 2: obviously a fear competitiort a seven and its share price,

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Speaker 2: as you mentioned, jump thirteen percent.

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Speaker 1: Just a quick one Sean Brevell, the high end coffee

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Speaker 1: and kitchen machinery manufacturer, is entering China hoping that the

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Speaker 1: Chinese decide that it is time to make their brews

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Speaker 1: at home.

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Speaker 2: Exactly, and chief executive of Brebel, Jim Clayton, really hopes

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Speaker 2: that all those consumers will buy online because he's not

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Speaker 2: opening shops, He's just going to use online selling only.

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Speaker 2: The company also wants to open in the Middle East

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Speaker 2: and it's going to look at a base in Dubai.

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Speaker 2: The company's also stockpoled product in the US to avoid

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Speaker 2: potential tariffs because it's China's big manufacturing base for it.

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Speaker 2: All that, all profits and revenue were higher at Revel,

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Speaker 2: though the stock was sold off yesterday down two percent.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news now and I mentioned this one earlier,

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Speaker 1: a consortium of investors led by Elon Musk is offering

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Speaker 1: ninety seven billion US dollars said about one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty five billion Aussie to buy the non profit company

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Speaker 1: that controls open Ai, the organization behind of course chat GPT.

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Speaker 2: Yes, look at put two very fierce rivals against each other,

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Speaker 2: Elon Musk and open Ai CEO Sam Altman, and those

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Speaker 2: two actually co founded open AI as a charity in

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Speaker 2: twenty fifteen. Musk left the company in twenty nineteen. OPENII

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Speaker 2: has created a for profit subsidiary. It's meant that it

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Speaker 2: could raise money from Microsoft and others. Now Altiman is

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Speaker 2: in the process of turning the subsidiary into a normal

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Speaker 2: traditional company, spinning out the nonprofit group. According to The

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Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal, Musk and his crowd have come and

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Speaker 2: made the offer. Afterwards, Altman posted on x social media platform,

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Speaker 2: I quote, no, thank you, but we will buy Twitter

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Speaker 2: for nine point seventy four billion dollars if you want.

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Speaker 2: Of course, Musk paid forty four billion dollars for it.

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Speaker 2: So having a good crack at each other.

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Speaker 1: I love that it happens very very publicly. Last one

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Speaker 1: Sean Egypt has told the US that Arab states reject

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Speaker 1: US President Donald Trump's widely condemned to displace Palestinians in

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Speaker 1: Gaza and take control of the territory.

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Speaker 2: There was a meeting in Washington. The Egyptian Foreign minister

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Speaker 2: stressed the importance of expediting Gaza's reconstruction while Palestinians remained there.

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Speaker 2: The US State Department released a statement reeyet iterating the

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Speaker 2: importance of close cooperation between the countries in the region. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: President Donald Trump said the ceasefire agreement between Israel and

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Speaker 2: Hamas should be canceled on Sunday if Hamas doesn't release

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Speaker 2: all the remaining hostages by then. And while on the

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Speaker 2: subject with the President, he's ordered the Department of Justice

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Speaker 2: to halt the enforcement of a ban on on Americans

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Speaker 2: bribing foreign officials. So he's halting the ban on bribes.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, Sean. Up next is the Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed Daily Interview. Kevin Hebner, global investment strategist at Epoch

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Speaker 1: Investment Partners, is your guest. It is an absolute must listen.

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Speaker 1: It is in the Fear and Greed playlist on your

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Speaker 1: podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com tod a you,

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Speaker 1: which is also where you sign up for our free

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Speaker 1: weekly newsletter, which comes out later this morning. So head

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Speaker 1: along to the website now, pop your email addressing and

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Speaker 1: it will land in your inbox in a few hours.

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the twelfth of February twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson that with fear and greed, have a great day,