WEBVTT - How Labor will rake in the cash 0:00:02.320 --> 0:00:05.800 I love that twenty six the worst is behind us. 0:00:06.160 --> 0:00:08.960 We've got cost of living relief one point two million 0:00:09.039 --> 0:00:10.800 before the end of the Decode New York. 0:00:10.640 --> 0:00:15.800 Past from the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm 0:00:15.840 --> 0:00:18.200 Claire Harvey and this is our budget special. 0:00:19.360 --> 0:00:23.600 Jim Charmers had to actually use the r word recession. 0:00:24.120 --> 0:00:27.280 We eat these policies and call it reform. 0:00:27.480 --> 0:00:30.280 There's no surplus until twenty thirty four. 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:34.920 We're here in Canberra in the Australian's Federal Parliamentary Press 0:00:34.920 --> 0:00:39.240 Gallery Bureau in Parliament House. Hello, Breg Brown, Sarah Issen, 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:43.800 Matthew Transton, under the close supervision of officials. 0:00:44.440 --> 0:00:46.599 Just as a reminder you of each agreed to not 0:00:46.720 --> 0:00:50.320 share information outside the room, only discuss it with others 0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:50.879 in the lock up. 0:00:51.760 --> 0:00:54.520 It's called a lock up because journalists get access to 0:00:54.560 --> 0:00:58.240 the budget papers six hours early at one thirty pm 0:00:58.280 --> 0:01:00.720 on Tuesday, and we're locked in to our offices. 0:01:01.240 --> 0:01:05.959 Surrender your mobile phone, smart watch and other devices. 0:01:05.720 --> 0:01:09.160 So we can't spill any secrets or do any insider trading. 0:01:09.560 --> 0:01:12.800 Before Jim Chalmers stands up to make his budget speech 0:01:13.280 --> 0:01:16.000 just after seven thirty pm, Speaker this. 0:01:16.040 --> 0:01:19.440 Is the most important and ambitious budget in decades. 0:01:20.120 --> 0:01:23.560 Today we decode a federal budget the government thinks will 0:01:23.600 --> 0:01:39.320 consolidate Labour's grip on power. When a budget comes down, 0:01:39.480 --> 0:01:41.640 you'll be amazed to learn they don't just hand us 0:01:41.680 --> 0:01:44.120 all the answers on a plate. The journalists have to 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:47.120 dig through the tables in a massive stack of printed 0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:50.880 books to work out what's actually going on. Oh, there's 0:01:50.880 --> 0:01:56.560 about to be some SWEARINGSSI. 0:01:54.280 --> 0:01:55.560 Has taken not yet announce. 0:01:56.040 --> 0:01:57.160 Look at the billions there? 0:01:57.280 --> 0:01:58.000 Shit, how am i? 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:05.080 Jeff Chambers is The Australian's Political editor. Jeff, we've heard 0:02:05.120 --> 0:02:08.399 of smoko and servo. Now we've got waow. I need 0:02:08.440 --> 0:02:10.320 you to say it in your accent and then tell 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:11.959 us what it is. What o? 0:02:12.520 --> 0:02:14.520 And it made me think of you know, Albo and 0:02:14.639 --> 0:02:17.760 Jimbo down at the king O in Canberra cooking up 0:02:17.800 --> 0:02:21.560 a wato. And it's just another very highly political term. 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:24.160 So we always heard about a thing called the Lamington 0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:26.880 which was a limido. So that was for low and 0:02:26.919 --> 0:02:30.799 middle income workers. And whenever a government didn't really want 0:02:30.800 --> 0:02:33.320 to go the whole hog on tax reform, but they 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:35.120 wanted to give a bit of a sweetener out. They'd 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:38.280 cooked this up and now labor have scripped it on 0:02:38.560 --> 0:02:42.200 doing anything really on bracket creep. You know, it keeps 0:02:42.200 --> 0:02:44.800 people happy, so they bake it in. They're saying that 0:02:44.800 --> 0:02:47.799 they're baking this in permanently, but it is also an 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:50.440 instrument that you could take out at a future date. 0:02:50.919 --> 0:02:54.320 Yeah, working Australians tax offset. We knew it was coming 0:02:54.320 --> 0:02:57.640 because Matt Cranston, the Australian's economics editor, broke the story. 0:02:57.960 --> 0:02:59.720 We didn't know it was going to be baked in 0:02:59.800 --> 0:03:02.560 for at least the next ten years, maybe forever. What 0:03:02.600 --> 0:03:03.520 does that actually mean? 0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:06.840 Yeah, well that was It was devastating run up to 0:03:06.880 --> 0:03:10.440 the budget. It's unheard of for any media organization or 0:03:10.480 --> 0:03:15.960 a journalist to get typically the centerpiece populist policy, and 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:19.639 Matt Cranston got that we have a cost of living crisis, 0:03:20.160 --> 0:03:24.680 the threat of recession, more rate hikes, and it's something 0:03:24.720 --> 0:03:28.040 they can do which they can argue won't drive up inflation. 0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:30.960 So it's one of those treasury political inventions. 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:34.320 The government says it's about rewarding people who work as 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:37.720 opposed to people who get income from assets or from savings. 0:03:38.480 --> 0:03:40.280 Does it also help labor win elections. 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:43.920 Look in this day and age, what does two hundred 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:47.080 and fifty bucks really mean. I'm sure people will pocket it, 0:03:47.120 --> 0:03:49.840 but when it goes through your tax process, you might 0:03:49.880 --> 0:03:52.200 not even really notice it because the cost of everything 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:54.360 is going up. So I don't see this as an 0:03:54.360 --> 0:03:58.560 election winner. I think it's a stop gap towards what 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:01.320 they're holding back to do before the twenty twenty eight election. 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:08.920 Greg Brown is The Australian's chief political correspondent. Greg, we 0:04:08.960 --> 0:04:11.440 already knew this budget would contain big cuts to the 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:15.360 National Disability Insurance Scheme and three big new tax changes 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:19.120 negative gearing, capital gains tax and trusts. What we didn't 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:21.120 know is how much that was all going to rake in. 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:23.039 So what are the budget papers showing us? 0:04:23.360 --> 0:04:27.600 Well, the NDIS raises nearly one hundred and ninety billion 0:04:28.040 --> 0:04:31.040 over the ten years, so that is the main crux 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:35.960 of the government savings. Very optimistic assumptions as well. It 0:04:36.040 --> 0:04:39.080 really is down to the government now actually delivering on 0:04:39.160 --> 0:04:41.920 that now, given they've baked it into the budget. But 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:47.240 collectively it's an increasing tax of seventy seven billion over 0:04:47.279 --> 0:04:51.320 the ten years. So those measures bring us to a 0:04:51.360 --> 0:04:55.960 balanced budget in eight years time. So even with higher 0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:59.960 taxes and big cuts to the NDIS, there's no surpl 0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:02.400 us until twenty thirty four. 0:05:02.920 --> 0:05:06.800 The government had to break promises to deliver these changes. 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:10.360 They sell it as reform rather than just revenue raising. 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:11.920 Is it going to be worth it? 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:15.719 Yeah? Well, Jim Chalmers says that over the forwards these 0:05:15.960 --> 0:05:19.640 tax changes are broadly revenue neutral, which is right. They're 0:05:19.680 --> 0:05:24.680 actually revenue raising over the longer period, and he's sort 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:27.400 of leaving the door open to maybe we can give 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:30.279 a tax cut in the future, but we really should 0:05:30.320 --> 0:05:33.279 judge him on what he's doing at the moment. The risk, Claire, 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:36.279 I think is that it can leave the impression in 0:05:36.320 --> 0:05:40.160 the community that all they're doing is raising taxes and 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:42.719 it is an assault on aspiration. 0:05:45.560 --> 0:05:49.240 This budget is ambitious in the face of adversity. We 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:52.000 choose the hard rate of reform, not the path of 0:05:52.160 --> 0:05:53.000 least resistance. 0:05:55.080 --> 0:05:58.280 Richard Ferguson, you're the Australians can for bot give me 0:05:58.320 --> 0:05:58.880 a verdict? 0:05:59.360 --> 0:06:03.480 Well, A Treasurer Chris Bowen and Prime Minister Bill Shorten 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:07.680 have released an extraordinary budget. What are you doing about? 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:10.960 This is a Chris bow and Bill short And budget No, it's. 0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:12.240 Jim Chalmers an Anthony Albanezi. 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:17.160 Oh that's right. Oh I forgot. It's just that almost 0:06:17.200 --> 0:06:20.839 every policy looks exactly like Bill Shorten took to the election. 0:06:21.880 --> 0:06:24.240 Silly me is that the election he didn't win, that 0:06:24.279 --> 0:06:27.159 would be the election he didn't win. I am quite famously, 0:06:27.720 --> 0:06:32.520 but Jim Tarmers and Anthony Albanzi clearly believe that the 0:06:32.600 --> 0:06:35.800 Iran war has given them an opportunity to read these 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:39.000 policies and call it reform. 0:06:39.120 --> 0:06:43.680 Anthony Albanese's the master political tactician of his generation. Is 0:06:43.720 --> 0:06:46.000 this showing Bill Shorten that this is how it's done. 0:06:46.000 --> 0:06:48.039 You white until a fifth budget and then get it 0:06:48.040 --> 0:06:48.479 in there. 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:51.040 Well, I think that might be how Anthony ALBANIZI might 0:06:51.080 --> 0:06:54.440 say it. It was interesting The Australian reported just before 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:57.679 the lock up that there had been a briefing note 0:06:57.720 --> 0:07:01.560 going around labor MPs which gave the seven different options 0:07:01.560 --> 0:07:05.200 to explain how the government had broken their promises when 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:07.920 it came to not touching the Bill shortened policies on 0:07:08.040 --> 0:07:12.680 negative gearing, capital gains, tax trusts, etc. Etc. So they're 0:07:12.720 --> 0:07:15.400 trying to really frame this as these are the right 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:18.360 policies for the right moment, and they did get away 0:07:18.360 --> 0:07:20.920 with it with the Stage three tax cuts. At the 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:25.840 last election, Albanezy said I'm not touching the bill shortened policies. 0:07:26.200 --> 0:07:27.720 He's definitely touching them though. 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:34.240 Paul Kelly is The Australian's editor at large. Paul Jim 0:07:34.320 --> 0:07:37.600 Chalmers says he's helping, not harming, in the war on inflation. 0:07:37.760 --> 0:07:40.640 Do you buy that there are good things and bad 0:07:40.720 --> 0:07:44.320 things about this budget? The point to make is the 0:07:44.400 --> 0:07:49.040 forecasts given the global energy crisis, are fairly optimistic. The 0:07:49.080 --> 0:07:53.120 government thinks we can get through that, okay. It's also, 0:07:53.280 --> 0:07:57.320 of course preparing for a major political war on taxation 0:07:57.960 --> 0:08:02.160 given the changes on capital gains to negative gearing, and 0:08:02.200 --> 0:08:05.200 the government clearly thinks it's position well to win that 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:09.920 political war despite the broken promises, because it's going to 0:08:09.960 --> 0:08:13.240 pitch to a new generation of younger voters. So in 0:08:13.280 --> 0:08:17.640 that sense you can see Labor readjusting its position. Overall, 0:08:18.280 --> 0:08:21.600 most of the budget's savings come from the NDIS and 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:26.240 they are incredibly large. What this means is that DUS 0:08:26.360 --> 0:08:31.960 savings now drive the fiscal consolidation and the return to surplus. 0:08:32.240 --> 0:08:36.880 If the NDIS savings aren't delivered, then fiscal policy doesn't work. 0:08:37.200 --> 0:08:40.480 It's really hard to make those cuts in a fiscal way, 0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:43.599 but also in a moral and ethical way. For the 0:08:43.640 --> 0:08:46.880 Albanese government, they are going to face families saying that 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:48.960 they've been cut off and that this is not fair, 0:08:48.960 --> 0:08:51.679 that these are not labor values. Is it worth the 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:53.320 risk for labor to make those cuts. 0:08:53.480 --> 0:08:55.680 It knows the program is out of control, it knows 0:08:55.720 --> 0:08:58.960 the program needs to be reformed, and it's attempting to 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:03.600 turn that into a political and financial plus. I think 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:06.120 the other important point to make here when it comes 0:09:06.160 --> 0:09:10.760 to taxation policy is this new tax offset. This two 0:09:10.880 --> 0:09:14.880 hundred and fifty dollars going to each worker across thirteen 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:19.360 million Australian workers. This is a golden chance for the 0:09:19.360 --> 0:09:23.920 Liberal leader Angus Taylor to outsmart labor by excelling, by 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:28.920 excelling what Labour's doing. Taylor should announce in his Thursday 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:32.280 night reply to the budget that the Opposition is committed 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:36.520 to the full indexation of the personal income tax scale. 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:41.079 That is a superior tax reform to what Labour's proposed, 0:09:41.640 --> 0:09:44.840 and it probably means that the margin a greater concession 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:48.720 to workers than what labor has proposed. But above all, 0:09:49.120 --> 0:09:51.400 it would give Taylor a chance to seize the tax 0:09:51.440 --> 0:09:56.160 initiative and to introdesce a bold policy, and bold policy 0:09:56.240 --> 0:09:57.920 is certainly what he needs at the moment. 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:05.440 Dennis Shanahan is The Australian's National editor. Dennis, we know 0:10:05.559 --> 0:10:08.080 Jim Chalmers is an ambitious guy. He keeps telling us. 0:10:08.080 --> 0:10:11.120 So he also says he's impatient. This is his fifth 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:13.840 budget and all those budgets we've been waiting for some 0:10:13.880 --> 0:10:14.720 genuine reform. 0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:15.440 Is this it? 0:10:16.120 --> 0:10:19.600 I don't think so. The budget has suffered from being 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:26.080 oversold and really an underachievement because what we've seen and 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:30.000 I think Jim Chalmers's treasure would always have wanted to 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:31.800 change capital gains tax. 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:32.480 We know that. 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:35.240 We know that from previous times. We know that he 0:10:35.320 --> 0:10:39.440 wanted to change the negative gearing, so we know that 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:42.600 this is where Jim Chalmer's heart is. We also know 0:10:42.679 --> 0:10:46.600 that this is where he wants to help workers way journers, 0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:49.880 and that's partly what they're talking about. Is this changing 0:10:49.880 --> 0:10:54.760 the balance between way journers and investors. Of course, a 0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:57.560 lot of those way journers are investors as well. But 0:10:57.640 --> 0:11:00.440 I think that the problem here is that it doesn't 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:03.319 go as far as Jim Chalmers would have wanted to. 0:11:03.880 --> 0:11:06.600 And I think the reason for this. Part of the 0:11:06.640 --> 0:11:11.000 reason is that we've seen reports and the Prime minister's 0:11:11.000 --> 0:11:15.040 behavior suggesting that he has been in charge of the 0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:18.760 budget process in a large part, it's his budget, and 0:11:18.800 --> 0:11:21.880 I think part of that problem is that the Prime 0:11:21.920 --> 0:11:28.200 Minister is incredibly timid. He is afraid of upsetting voters 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:31.760 that don't mind upsetting older voters. Now because we've seen 0:11:31.960 --> 0:11:37.800 older voters who traditionally support or more disproportionately support the 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:42.440 coalition shifting to one nation, so the threat of older 0:11:42.520 --> 0:11:48.640 voters forming a block and voting for coalition MPs, against 0:11:48.840 --> 0:11:53.760 candidates against labor people has diminished. So they can afford 0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:57.920 to say up you to the older voters while appealing 0:11:58.000 --> 0:12:00.960 to the younger voters. And I think that that is 0:12:01.080 --> 0:12:05.280 the Prime minister's political strategy, and for old Jim Chalmers 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:08.640 trying to say this wasn't a political document, it is 0:12:08.679 --> 0:12:12.160 a highly political document and the Prime Minister wants to 0:12:12.520 --> 0:12:16.600 shore up the younger vote, which was their strength at 0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:19.040 the last election. We know it was the strength at 0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:23.079 the last election because they actually lied to older voters 0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:27.920 all of these changes they lied about, and so what 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:30.600 we're seeing is they were worried about the reaction to 0:12:30.640 --> 0:12:34.880 older voters at the last election. Now they're introducing them 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:38.000 because the older voters are no longer the political threat 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:38.720 they were. 0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:49.920 If that's still not enough budget for you, go to 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:53.320 the Australian dot com dot au. It's where the scoops 0:12:53.440 --> 0:12:56.520 keep coming. This episode of the Front was presented by 0:12:56.600 --> 0:13:00.280 me Claire Harvey, produced by Kristin Amiott and edited by 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:01.000 Jasper Lake.