WEBVTT - ‘Cuba’s next’: Can anything stop Trump? 0:00:01.280 --> 0:00:09.720 I'm Nicole Johnston and you're listening to seven AM. Trump 0:00:09.760 --> 0:00:13.320 says Cuba is next on his hit list. For decades, 0:00:13.400 --> 0:00:16.880 the US has tried to isolate the country. Now Trump 0:00:16.960 --> 0:00:20.759 is tightening the screws and blockading oil and plunging the 0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:26.000 island into rolling blackouts. Life has become unbearable. Rubbish and 0:00:26.120 --> 0:00:29.920 rats are taking over the streets, Supermarket shelves are empty, 0:00:30.120 --> 0:00:34.040 and there's no fuel for its classic cars. Now Cuba 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:38.199 is preparing for the possibility of a US attack. Today, 0:00:38.600 --> 0:00:42.559 Havana based journalist Rory Nickel on the hell Cubans are 0:00:42.560 --> 0:00:45.760 living through and the fear of what could happen next. 0:00:52.200 --> 0:01:01.800 It's Thursday, April two, hevena and it's been really tough 0:01:01.880 --> 0:01:04.959 days across the country. Can you describe for us what 0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:07.200 you're seeing when you go out onto the streets there? 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:08.440 How are Cuban surviving? 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:12.039 Well, it's been very tough recently because since January the 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:16.399 thirty first, when President Donald Trump of the US signed 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:22.040 an executive order essentially blockading the island from receiving any oil, 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:26.600 there hasn't been any fuel really, with a few small 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:30.920 exceptions imported, and that has meant that a lot of 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:33.679 the state institutions have shout. A lot of the schools 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:36.920 have either shut or partially shut. It means that a 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:39.640 lot of the transport has broken down. 0:01:39.760 --> 0:01:43.560 Rubbish on the streets, bikes to get around, power only 0:01:43.760 --> 0:01:48.720 by torch lighting. This the state of Cuba desperately running 0:01:48.720 --> 0:01:50.360 out of oil, supplies. 0:01:50.320 --> 0:01:53.800 Very empty roads, cars not being able to go anywhere, 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:58.600 and it makes her a very strange atmosphere. 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:02.440 And the notions I can't watch the news, we don't 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:06.080 have any lights, which are essential for life. Everything's becoming complicated. 0:02:06.120 --> 0:02:07.240 It's getting worse every day. 0:02:07.960 --> 0:02:10.919 But it's very important to remember that Cuba has been 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:15.320 in an economic crisis for wow, nearly sort of five 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:18.560 years now, and so people are very used to the 0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:22.560 enormous blackouts we've had, which have been worsening, and people 0:02:22.560 --> 0:02:25.919 are very used to quite a lot of the difficulties. 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:29.720 There's been few shortages before the government's run out of 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:32.360 money to collect trash has been huge built ups of 0:02:33.040 --> 0:02:35.640 rubbish at the street corners. People have been setting fire 0:02:35.720 --> 0:02:38.919 to that, which is unnerving to say the least. So 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:42.200 people are used to crisis. It's just been accelerated by 0:02:42.240 --> 0:02:45.280 these recent moves by the US government down. 0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:48.399 We've imperialism. 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:52.600 Cuban President Miguel Dascanal addressed the crowd outside the US 0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:57.160 embassy on Saturday, hours after Venezuelan President Nicolas Madoro was 0:02:57.200 --> 0:03:00.400 abducted by US Special forces Rory. 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:03.320 We know that everything changed for Cuba, of course, when 0:03:03.360 --> 0:03:08.240 Trump captured Venezuela's president, Nicholas Maduro. What was the relationship 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:12.200 between the countries and what impact did the US intervention 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:14.120 there have on Cuba. 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:18.480 Well, the relationship was very deep ever since Hugo Chaves 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:24.040 took over Venezuela, and Hugo Chavis used a lot of 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:28.320 the Venezuelan all reserves to support Cuba with oil and 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:33.280 to build up its sort of economic defenses after the 0:03:33.320 --> 0:03:38.280 loss of the Soviet Union. Then, obviously Hugo Chavis died 0:03:38.680 --> 0:03:41.640 here the position was taken over by a far less 0:03:41.720 --> 0:03:46.920 charismatic figure, Nicholas Maduro. The situation Venezuela was very much 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:50.760 more tricky for Maduro than it is for the leadership 0:03:50.760 --> 0:03:54.520 of the Cuban Communist Party because it's a much less 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:58.320 deep socialist program. So he was scared of his own 0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:01.760 people and his own sort of colleagues, almost as he 0:04:02.440 --> 0:04:05.440 subsequently proved right to be, and so he surrounded himselves 0:04:05.440 --> 0:04:10.520 with Cuban security, and when Madua was lifted out in 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:16.880 that extraordinary abduction, it did send a shock. Thirty two 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:20.960 Cubans were killed protecting him and their bodies, so their 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:24.200 ashes came back to Cuba. It was a big national 0:04:24.240 --> 0:04:28.039 shock here and suddenly any oil was not coming anymore, 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:33.160 and people immediately realized here how big a crisis that was. 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:36.880 Because Cuba's list of friends has been growing ever shorter. 0:04:37.200 --> 0:04:39.480 And now in Cuba we are starting to see people 0:04:39.520 --> 0:04:42.400 come out onto the streets. We had that protest in 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:47.479 Moron that became violent. What exactly are people protesting about. 0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:51.520 I'd be very careful. There's a very protest here is 0:04:52.120 --> 0:04:56.119 very very difficult. You protest, you go to jail for 0:04:56.160 --> 0:04:58.400 a long time and there's no real recourse, so people 0:04:58.440 --> 0:05:01.919 are terrified of it, so it doesn't really What happens 0:05:01.960 --> 0:05:05.800 is people come onto the streets, they bang pots, and 0:05:06.000 --> 0:05:13.080 you can hear it across the city some nights. What 0:05:13.160 --> 0:05:17.000 that's about is that people haven't got electricity. They are 0:05:17.200 --> 0:05:21.839 extraordinarily frustrated because in a Caribbean climate, if you don't 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:24.760 have electricity, you can't have a fan, means you can't sleep, 0:05:25.160 --> 0:05:28.800 your refrigerator doesn't work. People are very very short to 0:05:28.839 --> 0:05:32.680 money on money because of hyperinflation and the lack of food. 0:05:36.800 --> 0:05:39.080 The situation you were talking about in more On, a 0:05:39.160 --> 0:05:43.360 town halfway along the island, was more extraordinary because that 0:05:43.920 --> 0:05:46.279 was a group of quite young people, I believe, who 0:05:46.920 --> 0:05:50.920 actually raided the local Communist Party headquarters and pulled out 0:05:50.960 --> 0:05:52.720 on the furniture and set light to it. 0:05:55.160 --> 0:05:59.040 Anti government protesters attacked a Communist Party office in Cuba, 0:05:59.080 --> 0:06:00.719 according to a state and newspaper. 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:10.000 What always strikes me about protests here is that they 0:06:10.120 --> 0:06:14.440 usually begin with mothers of young babies who are in 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:17.040 a desperate state. They haven't got milk to feed their babies, 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:19.640 they're not getting anything from the state like they used to. 0:06:20.160 --> 0:06:24.000 Their babies can't sleep because the heat and the mosquitoes, 0:06:24.000 --> 0:06:26.760 and they haven't got fans to deal with that, and 0:06:26.839 --> 0:06:29.159 they will come to a government office to say please, 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:31.360 can you do something? And other people will get involved 0:06:31.360 --> 0:06:36.000 and that's where sort of small protests rise up. But 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:40.240 this is not Iran that we haven't seen huge protests 0:06:40.320 --> 0:06:44.200 like that, But I think it's still pretty remarkable how 0:06:44.240 --> 0:06:46.960 little protest there is given the situation people. 0:06:46.720 --> 0:07:01.039 Face coming up, Will Trump take Cuba? 0:07:01.160 --> 0:07:04.120 They built this great military. I say, you'll never have 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:06.040 to use it, but sometimes you have to use it. 0:07:06.800 --> 0:07:09.520 And Cuba's next, by the way, But pretend I didn't 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:14.880 say that. Please pretend I did. Please, Please please, media, 0:07:14.920 --> 0:07:17.280 please disregard their statement. 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:18.120 Thank you very much. 0:07:19.840 --> 0:07:20.640 Cuba's next. 0:07:21.080 --> 0:07:23.960 We now have President Trump. He's threatening to take Cuba. 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:28.440 His statements are getting bolder every week, and it does 0:07:28.480 --> 0:07:32.320 start to feel like, after a run, Cuba could be next. 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:35.760 So what does he want with Cuba? 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:39.120 He quite literally says Cuba is next. However, he's just 0:07:39.160 --> 0:07:42.040 done something literally today, something extraordinary happened, which has a 0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:45.040 Russian tanker arrived with seven hundred thousand barrels of oil 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:47.880 so close to it. So and he let that through 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:49.960 and I don't know, No one knows quite why he 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:54.320 let that through. So that's suspicious. That's interesting because that 0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:58.000 suggests to me that we know, we know that they've 0:07:58.040 --> 0:08:01.120 been in talks. There's been talks between Marco Rubio and 0:08:01.160 --> 0:08:05.680 one of Raul Castro for del Gastro's brothers, grandsons, and 0:08:06.960 --> 0:08:11.680 that suggests that they've been allowed to import some oil 0:08:11.920 --> 0:08:14.080 in return for I don't know if we'll see some 0:08:14.240 --> 0:08:17.760 political prisoners released in the next few days or or 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:21.480 whatever it might be. But I mean that's pure speculation. 0:08:22.200 --> 0:08:25.040 But you know, in a sort of dastardly way, the 0:08:25.080 --> 0:08:28.400 blockade is very very smart. They're just attacking all the 0:08:28.440 --> 0:08:32.960 things that government makes money on. And so you know, 0:08:33.080 --> 0:08:37.720 tourism has gone because the planes can't come in. Then 0:08:37.880 --> 0:08:41.160 they've got rid of the doctors that Cuba would send 0:08:41.240 --> 0:08:43.120 all around the world to one hundred and sixty countries 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:45.800 over the last how many years, and they would make 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:48.080 a lot of money out of that. So they're being 0:08:48.200 --> 0:08:53.120 sort of put upon everything that the Cubans can make 0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:57.600 money out of. The US government's going after But what 0:08:57.720 --> 0:09:00.480 does he want. There's two things he wants so whin. 0:09:00.679 --> 0:09:04.160 He wants the honor of taking Cuba and many many 0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:07.800 presidents have tried to get rid of these communist regime 0:09:07.880 --> 0:09:10.880 and failed, so he wants to be the man that 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:13.560 does that. He also probably wants to move on as 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:17.120 fast as he can from the fiasco in Iran. But 0:09:17.240 --> 0:09:20.000 he's got a sexual state called Marco Rubio, as probably 0:09:20.000 --> 0:09:23.920 you everybody knows, and Marco Rubia's mum and dad were 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:26.920 Cubans and he's grown and Marco Rubio grew up in 0:09:27.120 --> 0:09:32.640 the Meu of Spanish speaking Miami, and his dream is 0:09:32.679 --> 0:09:37.680 to unseat the Castros and to create what their view 0:09:37.679 --> 0:09:39.160 of a democratic Cuba would be. 0:09:39.240 --> 0:09:41.160 We would like to see the regime no change. We 0:09:41.200 --> 0:09:42.800 would like to That doesn't mean that we're going to 0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:44.440 make a change, but we would love to see a change. 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:46.080 There's no doubt about the fact that it would be 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:48.640 of great benefit to the United States if Cuba was 0:09:48.679 --> 0:09:51.920 no longer governed by an autocratic regime. But you know 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:52.480 what we mean. 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:56.920 So I think he's There's two different strands of thought 0:09:57.120 --> 0:10:00.240 in the US government, but Trump's is pre eminent, and 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:03.400 I think Rubio may or may not bend to that 0:10:03.440 --> 0:10:05.960 will depending on what the deal begins to look like, 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:07.320 if indeed there is a deal. 0:10:07.720 --> 0:10:11.520 And we're also starting to see other countries stepping in 0:10:11.559 --> 0:10:16.440 as the US steps out, Russia, Mexico, the Vatican. Is 0:10:16.480 --> 0:10:20.360 any of that making any difference at all in terms 0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:24.800 of getting resources or fuel supplies into the country. I mean, 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:26.000 can they do anything? 0:10:26.920 --> 0:10:29.880 I know that Claudia Schembaum of Mexico, the President of 0:10:29.960 --> 0:10:33.040 Mexico is very keen to send fuel, but she is 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:36.880 too threatened by Trump to do that. No one else 0:10:36.920 --> 0:10:39.560 seems ready to stand up. I mean surprised. You know, 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:42.280 there's all been all this talk about China having listening 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:46.840 posts here, Russia having listening posts here, but neither seems 0:10:46.880 --> 0:10:49.800 that keen to go head to head with the US. 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:52.760 People have made very good statements, but no one's actually 0:10:52.800 --> 0:10:53.439 stepped up. 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:06.199 What does this crisis say about the promises of the 0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:10.679 communist revolution in Cuba, especially these days when people are 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:14.400 just struggling to get through every single day, and is 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:18.200 the country now facing a major turning point? 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:21.840 I interviewed old lady on the street a few months ago. 0:11:22.400 --> 0:11:24.640 She was called martyr. I can't remember her surname, but 0:11:24.760 --> 0:11:26.840 I was very struck with her. She was you find 0:11:26.880 --> 0:11:28.760 with a lot of older people here that they tried 0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:32.280 to maintain their dignity by their their you know, their 0:11:32.280 --> 0:11:35.319 clothes are still you know, sort of well eye and pressed, 0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:39.200 but they're very threadbare and worn. Because most old people 0:11:39.200 --> 0:11:42.360 are on pensions of between sort of one to three 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:46.679 thousand Cuban pesos, which because of hyperinflation, because of some 0:11:46.880 --> 0:11:50.959 economic mismanagement, by the government in twenty twenty one, means 0:11:50.960 --> 0:11:54.040 has been reduced by hyperinflation two between three and five 0:11:54.120 --> 0:11:57.199 dollars a month. At the same time, the padagas where 0:11:57.240 --> 0:11:59.520 you used to get your state ration of rice, beans 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:02.400 and so on, have emptied. So these people are really 0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:04.680 in trouble. If they don't have family outside, they're really 0:12:04.679 --> 0:12:11.200 in trouble. Now, these are the people who built the revolution. 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:15.120 These are the people who when Shikhavaras said, look, I 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:17.440 want to create the new man. He didn't say women, 0:12:17.520 --> 0:12:21.120 but he meant that too. Where you give up your ego, 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:25.480 give up your desire for personal advancement, and you put 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:29.120 yourself at the service of the revolution. And in return, 0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:32.480 I will promise you cradle to grave healthcare, I'll promise 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:36.040 you food, I'll promise you a house, and I'll promise 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:40.200 you great education. And they said yes to that, and 0:12:40.240 --> 0:12:42.240 they gave it it there all and now they have 0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:51.200 found themselves cut a drift. And Martin has said to me, 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:54.200 we lived with the dream a devotion, and now we 0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:57.280 have nothing. And I think you know it was a dream, 0:12:57.320 --> 0:12:59.120 and it's a dream that has affected a lot of 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:03.080 people over the years, both in and out of this country. 0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:05.600 Lots of people followed it within, but lots of people 0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:09.120 followed it without. Many many students used to have Shaghevara 0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:12.160 on their wall, you know, and that dream of some 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:17.840 other kind of world has collapsed. And depending on your ideology, 0:13:17.960 --> 0:13:22.600 can blame the Americans. They've had a nearly seventy year embargo, 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:25.120 They've done everything in their power to crush this movement. 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:28.840 But you can also blame the Cuban government who have 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:32.200 you know, who've advanced so far right at the beginning 0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:35.840 in women's rights and race rights, but since then there've 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:39.520 been increasingly old men, mainly white men, running a country 0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:43.480 into the ground. And from nearly all of the Cubans 0:13:43.600 --> 0:13:46.320 I speak to, they don't really care anymore. They just 0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:49.640 want the situation to change. It's so torturous for them 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:52.600 that they just want a situation to change. However, having 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:55.520 just heat fightd across Cuba to try and at least 0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:57.800 put myself on the ground with a lot of Cubans, 0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:01.320 it's been interesting to me just how many Cubans think 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:05.680 Trump is ridiculous or pretty much the same as everyone 0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:09.480 else outside the US thinks of Trump. But all but 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:14.760 maybe one or two blamed their own government for this 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:16.080 current crisis. 0:14:17.040 --> 0:14:19.760 Despite all of that, would you say, we're on the 0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:21.640 edge of a major turning point for Cuba. 0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:25.800 Now, look, the revolution is over. But a friend of 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:28.600 mine who's a university professor of Cuban studies, and he 0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:31.040 found me up and said, on my coffee table, I 0:14:31.120 --> 0:14:34.120 have a book. This title is End of the Revolution. 0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:38.080 It's dated twoenty thirteen, and next to it is another 0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:41.640 book that says Last Days of the Castros, and it's 0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:44.880 dated nineteen ninety three. So you know, they know how 0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:48.920 to maintain power. They you can't rule them out. And 0:14:48.960 --> 0:14:51.200 one of the most extraordinary things that I've been watching 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:54.280 in the last few weeks is how many castros have 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:59.200 suddenly reappeared from various places. And the talk is all 0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:03.080 about the or being that Miguel di Escanal, the current president, 0:15:03.080 --> 0:15:05.920 who is not a custra, has to be shoved to 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:10.600 one side and out the door, and what happens after 0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:15.320 that is anyone's guess. But it is remarkable how many 0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:17.040 castras are suddenly reappearing. 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:23.080 Rory, thank you so much for sharing the story of 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:23.840 Cuba with us. 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:24.840 My pleasure. 0:15:35.880 --> 0:15:38.960 Also in the news, the federal government has announced a 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:42.520 suite of covid era support measures for businesses struggling with 0:15:42.600 --> 0:15:45.760 soaring fuel prices triggered by the war in the Middle East. 0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:49.800 The support package will include more generous Australian Tax Office 0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:53.840 payment plans, doing away with penalties and interest on unpaid 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:57.320 tax debts, and offering support to defer payments where the 0:15:57.360 --> 0:16:01.120 business has suffered a revenue hit due to fuel supply issues. 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:04.240 The ATO says it will also hold off on chasing 0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:08.680 unpaid tax debts and families hoping to get away over 0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:12.440 Easter are unlikely to get cheaper petrol before the long weekend, 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:16.160 and those in regional Australia could be waiting weeks for relief. 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:19.720 The federal government has cut wholesale fuel prices by twenty 0:16:19.760 --> 0:16:21.960 six cents a leader in a bid to head off 0:16:21.960 --> 0:16:25.120 the worst economic effects of the war, but analyss say 0:16:25.120 --> 0:16:28.080 the change won't be felt straight away as service stations 0:16:28.080 --> 0:16:31.520 will need to sell older, higher tax stock before bringing 0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:34.760 in the cheaper fuel. I'm Nicole Johnston and this is 0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:36.560 seven am. Thanks for listening.