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Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, April eighth, twenty twenty five. There's a risk

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Speaker 1: of recession. Those chilling words from the Treasurer Jim Chalmers,

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Speaker 1: as all sides of politics and a panicking market react

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Speaker 1: to Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. Releasing Treasury's pre election forecast,

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Speaker 1: the government says that next rate cut could be as

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Speaker 1: big as fifty bases points. The leaders meet on Tuesday

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Speaker 1: night for the campaign's first debate, as Peter Dutton dumps

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Speaker 1: his policy of ending public servants work from home, and

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Speaker 1: Anthony Albanez he seeks to reassure Australians he can handle

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Speaker 1: the relationship with Donald Trump. One in three university applicants

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Speaker 1: have claimed bonus entry points based on factors like disability, divorce,

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Speaker 1: domestic violence or mental ill health. That's an exclusive live

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Speaker 1: now at Beaustralian dot com dot AU. Tariffs are bad

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Speaker 1: and free trade is good. That's supposed to be the

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Speaker 1: economic consensus. But throw a populist politician like Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: into the mix and suddenly everything we thought we knew

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Speaker 1: about globalization and raising living standards gets chucked out the window. Today,

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Speaker 1: I'm joined by our business editor Ves Napolak, who's at

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Speaker 1: the center of the biggest story on Earth, to work

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Speaker 1: out how Australia and our economy fit into this new

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Speaker 1: world order.

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Speaker 2: Bueller Bueller.

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Speaker 1: Ferris Bueller's Day Off will be forty years old next.

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Speaker 2: Year, Bueller Buehler.

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Speaker 1: But the John Hughes classic, which launched Matthew Broderick to stardom,

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Speaker 1: captured something about adolescent malaise that's still perfect today.

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Speaker 2: In nineteen thirty, the Republican controlled House of Representatives, in

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Speaker 2: an effort to alleviate the effects of the Anyone, Anyone

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Speaker 2: the Great Depression.

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Speaker 1: School was just so boring. The teachers wanted to talk

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Speaker 1: about things like tariffs.

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Speaker 2: Passed the Anyone, Anyone the Holly Smoot Tariff Act, which

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Speaker 2: raised tariffs in an effort to collect more revenue for

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Speaker 2: the federal government. Did it work, Anyone? It did not work,

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Speaker 2: and the United States sank deeper into the Great Depression.

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Speaker 1: If only more Americans had paid attention, we might not

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Speaker 1: be here tonight.

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Speaker 2: Trump's tariffs and financial markets into free from.

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Speaker 3: Twenty five billion dollars wiped off the.

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Speaker 1: Ax cten concerns of a recession at a global trade war.

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Speaker 4: I find so few parallels with what we've seen before,

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Speaker 4: and that's what's truly scary about this time. In March

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty, in the COVID drawdown, smart investors knew that

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Speaker 4: once we were past the worst of this, we were

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Speaker 4: walking into one of the greatest consumption booms in history

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Speaker 4: and everyone was going to be feeling really good and

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Speaker 4: most importantly, they were going to spend. This is not

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Speaker 4: the case here. This one is properly scary and no

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Speaker 4: wonder one hundred and sixty billion dollars was wiped off

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Speaker 4: the ax on Monday.

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Speaker 1: Ve's Napolak is the Australian's business editor and her newsrooms

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Speaker 1: around the country are melting down right now along with

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Speaker 1: the stock market.

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Speaker 4: Everyone's a markets writer today, Claire. We're talking to people

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Speaker 4: who are really quite well off. You would think that,

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Speaker 4: you know, they're not going to be so bothered by

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Speaker 4: it four five percent draw down. You might be surprised

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Speaker 4: that some of them are. And we're also talking to

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Speaker 4: experts in the market who advise investors and manage money

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Speaker 4: for a living, and those are the guys that are

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Speaker 4: the most inclined to panic right now because suddenly everyone's

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Speaker 4: ten percent poorer. It's measurable, and that's what makes it scary.

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Speaker 1: Reason it's ninety five years since the Smooth Hawly Tariff

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Speaker 1: Act failed to help the US, and the reason it

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Speaker 1: failed is that other countries retaliated by imposing tariffs on

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Speaker 1: American goods, and that reduced global trade. But how is

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Speaker 1: it that we've ended up in a place where that

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Speaker 1: message has been forgotten?

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Speaker 4: I think we forget how hard we fought to get here,

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Speaker 4: and a lot of the benefits of free trade can

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Speaker 4: be minimized really easily, and that's exactly what's happened since

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty four. So we get to a point everybody

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Speaker 4: is feeling quite well off because the market has had

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Speaker 4: some spectacular games until now. So the feeling is not

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Speaker 4: one of, well, you know, there's a lot to lose.

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Speaker 4: The feeling was one of let's see where this goes.

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Speaker 4: And in hindsight, that was nice. But what's also true

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Speaker 4: up until last year was your iPhone, your car, and

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Speaker 4: your Lululemon never costs more than it did because of inflation.

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Speaker 4: And I think a lot of things in history have

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Speaker 4: really capitalized on inflationary periods where we ziggered with zag

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Speaker 4: this instance, we've definitely zagged. But it's why central banks,

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Speaker 4: including the RBA, have been so so serious about the

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Speaker 4: scourge of inflation, because it does lead to events like

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Speaker 4: this because people get fed up and cost of living

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Speaker 4: is something we've been talking about for three years and

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Speaker 4: it's no small thing. The wealth effect of the share

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Speaker 4: market is a wonderful thing, and quite a lot of

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Speaker 4: people participated that. But that's different to the scorecard of

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Speaker 4: Bill's iPhones, legging sweet whatever it may be. Like, everyone

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Speaker 4: has a reference point for these, and frankly, it's only

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Speaker 4: been going up.

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Speaker 1: On social media. Americans are alternating between defending Trump's tariffs

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Speaker 1: and explaining the whole concept to one another.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a negotiation strategy, so it's going to

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Speaker 3: be outrageous and something to catch everyone's attention and then

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Speaker 3: eventually there'll be some negotiation.

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Speaker 1: I am not worried about price school or not. Why so,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to be man anything.

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Speaker 2: We pay the terraffs, but the companies pay the terroriffs,

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Speaker 2: not us.

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Speaker 1: Shina doesn't pay the terriffs.

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Speaker 4: I voted for CRAMP, but I didn't vote to lose

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Speaker 4: my and I didn't vote for a global trade war,

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Speaker 4: and I didn't vote for Elon Musk run a muck.

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Speaker 4: Why are y'all going to admit that he has no

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Speaker 4: idea what he's doing?

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Speaker 1: Here in Australia we've had a sort of sea sawing

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Speaker 1: relationship with tariffs, just like the United States have. We've

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Speaker 1: had tariffs in one form or another ever since settlement. Really,

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Speaker 1: in fact, we had a military coup because of tariff's

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Speaker 1: in the early years of the New South Wales Colony.

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Speaker 1: The Rum rebellion was really about import restrictions and tariffs

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Speaker 1: on the trade in alcohol. Where do you think Australians

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Speaker 1: are at now in their understanding of, you know, whether

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Speaker 1: tariffs are a good or a bad thing.

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Speaker 4: I think it depends what part of the economy you

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Speaker 4: play in. So fundamentally, the national accounts are a huge

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Speaker 4: beneficiary of the iron ore trade. So we dig up

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Speaker 4: iron or we sell it and that's what funds fiscal

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Speaker 4: sped dig So that's cool. But you might feel a

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Speaker 4: little bit removed from that if you're not working in

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Speaker 4: the pilbro except that would be a mistake because we're

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Speaker 4: not that removed from it. At all. If global growth slows,

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Speaker 4: there's less demand for iron ore and things get fiscally

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Speaker 4: a lot more vulnerable. Just because you're not a five

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Speaker 4: FO worker or running an automated train or something, it

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Speaker 4: doesn't mean that you're removed from this. This is something

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Speaker 4: that will all feel.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So the government's ability to pay for things like

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Speaker 1: roads and schools and hospitals and discounts on your electricity bill,

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Speaker 1: that's linked to globalization in a way that some voters

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Speaker 1: might not understand.

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Speaker 4: We're so interconnected.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely coming up. So should you buy that new car

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Speaker 1: now or hang on to your money? So looking ahead,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is saying, everybody, stop panicking. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: go and play golf this weekend. It's going to be phenomenal.

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Speaker 1: Everything's going to be okay. Is there a way in

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Speaker 1: which this is going to be okay in which it

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Speaker 1: does settle itself out?

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Speaker 4: I think both of those things can be true. But

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Speaker 4: that doesn't rule out or minimize the fact that we

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Speaker 4: could have tremendous more pain ahead and buy more pain ahead.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the market could draw down a further ten percent,

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Speaker 4: and that would be a terrible thing. We also coming

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Speaker 4: into this position without the benefit of the company tax

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Speaker 4: cuts that the last Trump administration brought in at the

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Speaker 4: market was hugely receptive to. So there's a lot more downside.

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Speaker 4: And the other element to that is the starting point.

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Speaker 4: The world was never richer, So the S and P

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Speaker 4: five hundred, you're and video shares, whatever it may be,

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Speaker 4: there is just so much more to lose from such

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Speaker 4: a rich starting point. Where market strategists, investors, hatch funds

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Speaker 4: were repeating themselves endlessly say there's no fundamental basis for

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Speaker 4: these valuations, and they were right. We can't say we

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Speaker 4: weren't warned because we did hear that information and we

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Speaker 4: didn't really act on it.

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Speaker 1: Have you been surprised by how much the market seemed

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Speaker 1: to have been surprised by this.

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Speaker 4: Yes. I think what it came down to was that

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Speaker 4: feeling on Friday, when after Liberation Day, everybody was unified

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Speaker 4: in saying, this is worse than we thought. It was

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Speaker 4: a gambit, it was a trade play, it was bringing

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Speaker 4: people to the table. It was none of that. It

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Speaker 4: was actually just really bad.

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Speaker 1: So there's a reassuring kind of idea that we could

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Speaker 1: tell ourselves that actually what Donald Trump really wants his

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Speaker 1: critical minerals and that this is the bargaining chip, This

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Speaker 1: is the start of the negotiating process to make sure

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Speaker 1: he gets the critical minerals that the United States needs

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Speaker 1: to make the chips that make everything go. Is that

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Speaker 1: a possibility.

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Speaker 4: It's a possibility, but it wouldn't offset the broader, more

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Speaker 4: debilitating wealth effect that's happening. It's not nothing, but it's

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Speaker 4: a very small thing in what could be a setback

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Speaker 4: for global growth that takes us so many years to

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Speaker 4: recover from.

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Speaker 1: Is there a possibility, there's no. Given that every Australian

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Speaker 1: has some money in superannuation, even if you're not actually

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Speaker 1: exposed to the stock market, you have a super balance.

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Speaker 1: Is there a possibility that will reduce inflation here in

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Speaker 1: Australia that make people more conservative, less likely to go

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Speaker 1: and spend.

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Speaker 4: There is a possibility. I think it's too early, genuinely

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Speaker 4: to know, and it's fundamentally more of a bad thing

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Speaker 4: than a good thing. Demand is everything. I think when

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Speaker 4: you don't have demand intact, everything else is a second thought.

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Speaker 4: And so that's why recession is such a loaded word,

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Speaker 4: because it destroys everything.

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Speaker 1: Anthony Albanezi is basically saying stay calm, don't worry about it.

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Speaker 1: Peter Dutton is saying, well, this is actually a really

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Speaker 1: big concern. How do you think they are playing it?

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Speaker 1: How should they play it?

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Speaker 4: I'm so glad you asked this, Claire. I'll tell you

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Speaker 4: because this year we don't have eleven RBA meetings in

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Speaker 4: a year. We're on the new Progressive RBA schedule and

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Speaker 4: we're not going to hear from the RBA until after

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Speaker 4: the election, which feels like a really extraordinary thing, like

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Speaker 4: where's our central bank? We want to hear what they

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Speaker 4: think they can have such an influential role and voice

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Speaker 4: in this crisis and be neutral and a source of truth.

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Speaker 4: But there's no meeting, so I think people feel quite

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Speaker 4: a bit winded by that. So I'm really curious, just

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Speaker 4: as a student of the market, to see who will

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Speaker 4: be the voice that decides to carve out a position

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Speaker 4: of calm here.

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Speaker 1: Do you think there'sn't that we've lost the consensus about

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Speaker 1: free trade, that it's no longer widely accepted really even

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Speaker 1: by economists, that free trade is universally a good thing,

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Speaker 1: and that it's a rising tide that lifts all boats.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I do think so Claar. I think that's a

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Speaker 4: really honest observation, and we're probably all a little bit

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Speaker 4: guilty of losing our trade literacy in all of this.

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Speaker 4: And there are from time to time you see really

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Speaker 4: interesting business case studies of a car maker or a

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Speaker 4: beverages company. It's carved out a beautiful little global niche

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Speaker 4: by arbitraging some weird tariff scheme or regime. Look, that's nice,

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Speaker 4: but nothing's better than global growth. We know what global

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Speaker 4: growth does. It advances everyone's a lot in life. And

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Speaker 4: this is a walk back from that.

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Speaker 1: If you were advising someone just asking for a friend

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Speaker 1: who was thinking about buying a car or maybe thinking

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Speaker 1: about getting a new phone, what would your advice be.

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Speaker 4: It's a great question. It's probably what everybody's thinking. And

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Speaker 4: just like the share market, which is a sea of

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Speaker 4: read today, there's no buyers. Why is there no buyers?

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Speaker 4: Because it could be five, ten, fifteen percent cheaper, So

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Speaker 4: hold on, Well, there may be a better deal in

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Speaker 4: it for you if you can just hang out a

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Speaker 4: little bit longer.

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Speaker 1: Vesnopoljak is The Australian's Business editor. This story's moving fast

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Speaker 1: and you can keep up with the latest all the

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Speaker 1: time at the Australian dot com dot au