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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fearing Greed Business Interview. I'm sure and Alma.

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Speaker 1: Last week Bitcoin here record passing one hundred thousand US

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Speaker 1: dollars for the first time. Cryptocurrencies have also boomed since

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Speaker 1: the election of Donald Trump, in particular, that's on the

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Speaker 1: back of greater confidence of a more friendly regulatory environment

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Speaker 1: in the US for digital currencies. Demands certainly strong, though

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Speaker 1: not everyone is a supporter, with the Reserve Bank of

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Speaker 1: Australia earlier in the year pointing out that the value

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Speaker 1: of crypto unit units relies on supply and demand and

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Speaker 1: they actually don't have any intriumsic value. Remember this is

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Speaker 1: general information only, and you should seek professional advice before

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Speaker 1: making investment decisions. To help us think about where cryptos

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Speaker 1: are heading, I welcome Mark Canegie, principle of mh Carnegie

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Speaker 1: and co and founder of MHC Digital Group, Mark Welkoman

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Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thanks very much for having me, Sean, Let's.

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Speaker 1: Start at the very beginnings. What are the benefits of cryptos?

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Speaker 2: Well, the benefits of digital finance are that you find

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Speaker 2: some way to disrupt the hundreds of billions of dollars

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Speaker 2: a year of fees that incumbent financial services institutions charge you,

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Speaker 2: and the regulatory capture that's been brought about by a

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Speaker 2: whole series of decisions that were made for good reasons

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Speaker 2: at the beginning but have gone absolutely mad for the

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Speaker 2: average person as far as how they run their financial life.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so you use the phrase digital currencies, Is that right?

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Speaker 1: I mean there's not all digital currencies are the same.

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Speaker 1: You have things like tokens, which are kind of often

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Speaker 1: used with insectors. You have cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, but then

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Speaker 1: you have stable coins like the USD coin. Just explain

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Speaker 1: particularly stable coins the disciplteen that and a cryptocurrency like

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Speaker 1: a bitcoin.

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Speaker 2: So think about trying to move money for Christmas to

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Speaker 2: your aunt who lives in the Channel Lineolence. At the moment,

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Speaker 2: what's going to happen to you is you're going to

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Speaker 2: call whoever your bank is and say can I please

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Speaker 2: transfer one hundred or one thousand dollars to her? And

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Speaker 2: she's going to want to receive either euros or sterling.

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Speaker 2: And when you send that money at the moment, it's

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Speaker 2: going to go missing for anywhere between twenty four hours

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Speaker 2: and two weeks before it arrives in her bank. Account,

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Speaker 2: and you're going to have no idea where it's gone,

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Speaker 2: and you're going to spend half an hour to five

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Speaker 2: hours talking to the bank to try and find out

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Speaker 2: about that money. We've all had that experience, and then

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Speaker 2: what you're going to find is whether it was one

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Speaker 2: hundred bananas or a thousand. The money you sent and

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Speaker 2: the money that arrives there is going to be less

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Speaker 2: because of foreign exchange charges and also transaction fees. The

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Speaker 2: promises of stable coins is that you can move the

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Speaker 2: money out of your account into her account for fractions

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Speaker 2: of a cent rather than fifty or one hundred dollars

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Speaker 2: on one thousand dollars transaction. And there's one hundred and

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Speaker 2: sixty billion dollars a year charged in fees for just

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Speaker 2: using the US dollar swift network. To give you some

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Speaker 2: idea of just one place where these fees drag the

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Speaker 2: world financial system.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so I certainly understand the idea of making it

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Speaker 1: a far more efficient mechanism. My question, I suppose this

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Speaker 1: comes to the stable coin sable coins have a backing.

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Speaker 1: They have an asset backing, which is different to a

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Speaker 1: some cryptocurrencies which actually don't have asset backing. Just a

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Speaker 1: supply and demand, and in fairness sean just to be careful.

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Speaker 2: There are some that are better backed than others. There

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Speaker 2: have been times where people have claimed something as a

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Speaker 2: stable coin and it's got backing and it actually doesn't.

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Speaker 2: But luckily regulation and other things have meant that there

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Speaker 2: are proper stable coins backed with real me.

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Speaker 1: And you're a supporter of stable coins or stable coins

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Speaker 1: and cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.

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Speaker 2: I am a supporter of deregulated and distributed finance in total.

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Speaker 2: I've got and have had great skepticism about bitcoin over

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Speaker 2: a long period of time, and I have a personal

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Speaker 2: preference for ethereum amongst the cryptocurrencies. But I've been proved

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Speaker 2: wrong for a series of reasons which are not going

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Speaker 2: to be We're not going to be able to exhaustively

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Speaker 2: go into now. I think there are a set of

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Speaker 2: reasons why, by virtue of Trump and the Republicans, what

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Speaker 2: I call the fetishization of bitcoin is going to become

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Speaker 2: a real thing now, and so I change my view

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Speaker 2: about bitcoin. When Trump said We're going to create this

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Speaker 2: strategic Bitcoin reserve in the US long before he was

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Speaker 2: getting elected, but I think it was a sea change

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Speaker 2: as far as my skepticism about bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: So just before we dive into that any further, the

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Speaker 1: reason you like etheroereum is because of the blockchain technology

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Speaker 1: behind that as opposed to Bitcoin.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and I also I think for Tarlak is a

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Speaker 2: genuinely good human being, the guy who invented it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, So just on bitcoin, is it because Trump

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Speaker 1: the sec regulations, the reserve currency. Does that all kind

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Speaker 1: of give Bitcoin more of an authenticity or a credibility

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Speaker 1: that perhaps it didn't have without Trump?

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Speaker 2: Yes, I think so. So there was a famous guy

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Speaker 2: who called David Graeber, who wrote a book called Debt

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Speaker 2: the First five thousand Years, and he talked about fetish, right,

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Speaker 2: things becoming fetish eyed like gold. Right, Gold's got no

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Speaker 2: intrinsic value, but there's a fetish around gold. Yeah. What

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Speaker 2: we've observed is a developing fetish around Bitcoin, and that

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Speaker 2: fetish is now so well entrench with the Republicans that

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Speaker 2: it's never going to get unpicked. So, and there are

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Speaker 2: some reasons to do with the ordinance blockchain, and it's

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Speaker 2: what are called SATs inside bitcoin where I think they

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Speaker 2: can probably make a functional blockchain out of that if

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Speaker 2: it ever gets into trouble as well. So series of

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Speaker 2: very technical reasons beyond our conversation today, but I do

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Speaker 2: think bitcoin's become a more serious real player over the

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Speaker 2: next ten or one hundred years than I ever thought

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Speaker 2: it was going to be.

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Speaker 1: Stay with me. Mark will be back in a minute.

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Speaker 1: I'm speaking to Mark Carnegie, founder of MC Digital Group.

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Speaker 1: Bring this to Australia. What's the regulatory settings in Australia likehood,

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Speaker 1: Maybe it doesn't matter because whatever the US does we

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Speaker 1: have to follow.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's my SoundBite, which is you've had

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Speaker 2: a sea change from Gensler to the new guy at

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Speaker 2: the SEC, and that's going to swamp everything else. Now,

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Speaker 2: I still think there's an opportunity for Australia to have

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Speaker 2: a different set of arrangements because the Americans are so

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Speaker 2: down on China at the moment, and if we're willing

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Speaker 2: to create an independent sort of third party for US

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Speaker 2: as far as our financial regulations are concerned, will be

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Speaker 2: able to deal with both China and America as that

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Speaker 2: trade war develops. And I think currency weaponizing the currency

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Speaker 2: is going to be a big, big component of that

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Speaker 2: and we stand to benefit. I know it's an obscure

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Speaker 2: sort of tangent for your listeners. But that US dollar

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Speaker 2: currency bond that was issued in Saudi Arabia by the

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Speaker 2: Chinese shows a really, really good example of how you can,

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Speaker 2: if you're a third party affiliate of America, use the

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Speaker 2: weaponization of the dollar for advantage rather than disadvantage. And

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Speaker 2: I think cryptocurrency is a really good example of how

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Speaker 2: you're going to be able to do that if you

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Speaker 2: created sophisticated policy set in Australia.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so sorry, you're going to have to explain that

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Speaker 1: one to me a little bit more. Why does crypto

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Speaker 1: benefit from that?

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Speaker 2: So just think for a moment. You got this Oaudi

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Speaker 2: Arabia point, which was if you declare war on America

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Speaker 2: at the moment, or you declare war on one of

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Speaker 2: America's allies, they'll seize all your US dollars that are

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Speaker 2: sitting in your account. And so basically the world financial

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Speaker 2: system changed with the Ukraine War, where US dollars, which

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Speaker 2: is the world's reserve currency, is no longer safe if

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Speaker 2: you've got any contested foreign policy with somebody else. Yeah, yep.

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Speaker 2: The second thing that happens is if you are subject

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Speaker 2: to US sanctions of any sort. You're not allowed to

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Speaker 2: open a US dollar bank account at the moment, and

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Speaker 2: so all of the banks that are correspondent banks sit

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Speaker 2: there and say we're not going to touch you if

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Speaker 2: you're doing any one of a thousand things. It's not

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Speaker 2: long before that escalates from what i'd call military weaponization

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Speaker 2: to economic weaponization. That is the trade war that's about

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Speaker 2: to start out. You're seeing it already where third party

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Speaker 2: countries that buy stuff from China and then sell it

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Speaker 2: to the Chinese are saying, sorry, we're not going to

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Speaker 2: supply you those rare rors, and Americans are sitting there

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Speaker 2: and saying, well, we're going to make you subject to

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Speaker 2: sanctions as well. It's not long before the banking rails

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Speaker 2: get done in the same way. And that's where I

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Speaker 2: think cryptocurrencies and being able to have a set of

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Speaker 2: US dollar stable coin accounts in an Australian bank account

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Speaker 2: and an Australian crypto account is actually going to be

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Speaker 2: a way for Australia to take a different view from

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Speaker 2: the US about its trade relationships as it already has

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Speaker 2: with China, and create an advantage out of that. Now

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Speaker 2: we've done none of that at the moment. But I

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Speaker 2: regard that as being a really, really big opportunity unity

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Speaker 2: for regional financial services, and I think the Singaporeans and

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Speaker 2: others are looking at that and saying, how good's that

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Speaker 2: going to be? The question is whether Australian is going

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Speaker 2: to do it. I think the Singaporeans are there already.

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Speaker 2: I think the Japanese are there as well, but.

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Speaker 1: We not so much because we're too alligned to the

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Speaker 1: US because they don't want to think about it.

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Speaker 2: What's the reason, No, I think it's because we're being

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Speaker 2: so reactive. I just think the skepticism around Bitcoin, which

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Speaker 2: I completely understand, has blinded us to the rest of

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Speaker 2: the staff. And I think that the catastrophic failure of

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Speaker 2: the Banking Royal Commission from the point of view of

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Speaker 2: customers as opposed to the lawyers who took hundreds of

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Speaker 2: millions of dollars of fees, is another example where you've

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Speaker 2: got this massive regulatory capture, which means that consumer interests

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Speaker 2: are just being ignored at the moment mark.

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Speaker 1: This isn't the most upbeat conversation I've had on this

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Speaker 1: show in recent times. How realistic is it that a

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Speaker 1: true trade walk and flow to what you're talking about

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Speaker 1: to I mean, I suppose you're seeing it. The bricks.

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Speaker 1: Countries are already talking about let's have a reserve currency

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Speaker 1: that's not the US dollars, right, and the US Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump's responded to that. But kind of what you're this

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Speaker 1: totally upends your unit of exchange basically, if this all happens.

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Speaker 2: Sure, but I mean I think you and me are

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Speaker 2: perhaps you know, old enough to remember the time where

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Speaker 2: people said free trade is actually a good thing. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: so we're about you know, and you remember that part

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Speaker 2: of the whole depression was smooth, holy and the tariffs

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Speaker 2: that the Americans imposed back in the nineteen thirties, that

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Speaker 2: was accepted understanding of how the things were going to work. Well,

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Speaker 2: now we've declared this massive trade war amongst the two

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Speaker 2: biggest countries and economies in the world, and we're sitting

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Speaker 2: there and going, yes, it's boom time for you know, Christmas.

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Speaker 2: We're going to have a record high stock market at

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Speaker 2: the moment. Call me skeptical, but explained to me how

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Speaker 2: a trade war is going to be good for everyone.

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Speaker 2: And it just explained to me why we're meant to

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Speaker 2: hate the Chinese this week.

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Speaker 1: Now I couldn't agree more with you, and then tarifs

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Speaker 1: aren't going to improve efficiency and productivity around the world,

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Speaker 1: and that's not a good thing in terms of longevity, costs,

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Speaker 1: a quality of living and stuff like that. I just

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Speaker 1: I suppose I'm slowly surprised by how vigorous you are

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Speaker 1: in this argument.

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Speaker 2: Sure, And the reason I'm vigorous in this particular case

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Speaker 2: is you're creating this bottleneck where crypto is going to

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Speaker 2: find a way around it. And I think there's an

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Speaker 2: opportunity there for Australia to be a regulated cryptocurrency country

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Speaker 2: where we can use our alliance with the US to

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Speaker 2: take a differentiated point of view and capture some some

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Speaker 2: of the value that the Singaporeans are getting ready to do.

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Speaker 2: There's a whole series of reasons why there's Singaporeans need

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Speaker 2: to be moderate about this because of their even closer

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Speaker 2: relationship with China. But I think there's great opportunity out

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Speaker 2: of it. It's just we're not showing much evidence that

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Speaker 2: we're actually getting after the economic opportunity here at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Unfortunately, we are out of time. Mark, thank you very

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Speaker 1: much for talking to fear and greed.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much Sewan for having me.

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Speaker 1: That was Mark Carnegie, Principal at mh Carnegie and co

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Speaker 1: and founder of MHC Digital Group. This is the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed Business Interview. Remember this is general information only

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Speaker 1: and you should see professional advice before making investment decisions.

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Speaker 1: Join us every morning for the full episode of Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed, daily business news for people who make their

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Speaker 1: own decisions. I'm Sean Elmer. Enjoy your day.