1 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:06,600 Speaker 1: This is what the Flux. 2 00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:09,120 Speaker 2: I'm Brett and I'm Justin and it's Wednesday, the fifteenth 3 00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:10,200 Speaker 2: of box Obar Donzey Boyt. 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 1: Virgin Australia's share prices jump more than fifteen percent since 5 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 1: it listed, but it hasn't stopped them chasing new avenues 6 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:19,240 Speaker 1: for profit. Virgin is quietly announced cuts to its carry 7 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:22,440 Speaker 1: on luggage weight from two bags at seven heroes combined 8 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: to just one bag. Supposedly, this will speed up the 9 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: turnaround time between the flight legs, and faster turnaround times 10 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 1: means the ability for more flights and more revenue. 11 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 2: Virgin really taking it up to corny, aren't they am? 12 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 2: As we roll over into the middle of the month, 13 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 2: often the time when many people get their pay slip 14 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 2: and start to think where did my money go last month? Well, 15 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: in the Flux app, we had the perfect solution for 16 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 2: you with the Flux Budgeting tool that tracks all of 17 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 2: your expenses and tracks your savings balance as well as 18 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 2: categorizes where your money went for the last month, so 19 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 2: you'll never have to go chasing for it again. So 20 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 2: if you want to track your money and make sure 21 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 2: you're staying on top of your spending, download the flux 22 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 2: app and check out the budgeting tool. 23 00:00:57,440 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: Three thirsty stories today, juzzy boy, let's do for our 24 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 1: first Treasury Wine Estates. Gee do they get a good 25 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 1: run on this podcast? The shares have hit a decade 26 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 1: low after struggling with weak sales and even more challenges 27 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 1: in the US. 28 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 2: The wine world's having a bit of a hangover, b man, 29 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 2: so tell me more so. 30 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 1: Treasury Winer States is one of the world's biggest wine makers, 31 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 1: behind iconic labels like Penfolds, wolf Blasts and. 32 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 2: Wins and don't you dare forget nineteen Crimes too, the 33 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 2: wine that Snoop du double g backsyep? 34 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 1: But does boy? Treasury Wine Estates has just worn that 35 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 1: they have suffered weak at China sales due to changing 36 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: alcohol consumption habits. 37 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 2: Apparently there have been fewer large scale banquets in China. Yes, 38 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 2: they literally said this is part of their guidance. 39 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,760 Speaker 1: On top of that, it's US operations have been disrupted 40 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 1: by the exit of its main distributor in California, and 41 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:42,959 Speaker 1: as a. 42 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 2: Result, TWE withdrew its profit guidance for the twenty twenty 43 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 2: six financial year. Next minute, TWE shares plummeted fourteen percent, 44 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 2: taking them to their lowest levels for the last ten years. 45 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 2: So what is the key learning year? 46 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: Investors dislike uncertainty more than bad news. 47 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 2: You see, b Man Earning's guidance is like a company's 48 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 2: public GPS. 49 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 1: A company guidance tells investors where the business expects to 50 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: head over the next year or two. 51 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 2: And that means investors can start to value the business 52 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:11,399 Speaker 2: based on its expected future performance. 53 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:15,639 Speaker 1: But when guidance disappears, analysts can't model future profits accurately. 54 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 2: So when a company like TWE provides guidance and then 55 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 2: suddenly withdraws its guidance, it sends a pretty alarming signal. 56 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: It says that management is not confident in its ability 57 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 1: to forecast near term performance, and. 58 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 2: It almost always hurts the share price of the company 59 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 2: in the short term. 60 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 1: As an example, Juzzi Boy Estate Lauder they pulled their 61 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 1: fiscal twenty twenty five guidance and after doing so, share 62 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:36,959 Speaker 1: price dropped about twenty one percent. 63 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 2: But the man well, with drawing guidance really is an ideal. 64 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 2: It also hasn't been that uncommon this year due to Trump's. 65 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 1: Tariffs YEP for General motors, Mercedes, Volvo They all removed 66 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:49,360 Speaker 1: their guidance earlier this year due to uncertainty about tariff. 67 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 2: So Crocs, Krispy Kreme, Beyond Me, Diagio as well. 68 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 1: So Juzy Boy, it seems like TWA is taking the 69 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: share price hit now so it doesn't need to disappoint 70 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,080 Speaker 1: investors with underwhelming results later. 71 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 2: For our second story, pop Mart, the retailer responsible for 72 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 2: the Lea Boo Boo craze, has promised stor expansions in 73 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 2: Australia because le Boo Boo love has boomed locally. 74 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:11,799 Speaker 1: Pop Mark well and truly popping off in Australia. Juzzy Boy, 75 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 1: what is going on here? So? 76 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 2: Pop Mart is the Hong Kong listed toy company that's 77 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 2: known for selling the viral La Booboo blind boxes. 78 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 1: Now all around the world people have been lining up 79 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: to get their paws on these furry, jagged tooth gremlin toys. 80 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, they've been trending with celebs as well. We're talking 81 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:28,800 Speaker 2: Lisa from Black Pink, Rihanna dou A Lipa. 82 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: So Juzi boy, I know you love these items. What 83 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 1: is a blind box? 84 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 2: It's essentially an adult luck you did where you don't 85 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 2: know which toy you've got until you open the. 86 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 1: Package, and apparently it keeps customers coming back for more 87 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: and more until they get the toy they want. 88 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 2: And man, it's clearly work because pop March share price 89 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 2: has got up three hundred and fifty percent in the 90 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 2: past of your alone, and. 91 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 1: Now reports show that Australia is becoming one of pop 92 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: Mart's most important markets. 93 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 2: It makes up ten percent of pop Mart's revenue in 94 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 2: the Asia Pacific region outside of China. 95 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 1: And the team behind Labuobuo credits this rapid growth to 96 00:03:58,040 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 1: Australia's higher purchasing power. 97 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 2: So what is the key learning here? 98 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 1: Purchasing power is the amount of goods or services a 99 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 1: unit of currency can buy. 100 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 2: It's the reason why one Ossie dollar is valued differently 101 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 2: to one dollar in the US or one yuan in China. 102 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 1: And although China is Popmart's largest market, the yuan has 103 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 1: lower purchasing power, which means pop Mart's blind boxes are 104 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: considered a premium product. 105 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 2: That be man. In the Australian toy industry, the average 106 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 2: product costs around twenty two dollars and. 107 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 1: Pop Mart's blind boxes are priced in a similar range. 108 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:28,720 Speaker 2: Between twenty and thirty dollars if you're able to get 109 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:29,160 Speaker 2: them from a. 110 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 1: Store and Jazzi Boy. This has opened up the demographic 111 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 1: of Popmark customers. 112 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:35,479 Speaker 2: In China, labuoboos are largely purchased by people who have 113 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 2: disposable income to buy a random toy. 114 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 1: But in Australia, PopMart also appeals to younger kids whose 115 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 1: parents might have spent that much on other toy brands anyway. 116 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 2: So be man. It seems that PopMart is using the 117 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 2: OUSSI purchasing power to power up their revenue. 118 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 1: For our third and final story, the newly merged Paramount 119 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 1: Skydance has made a forty two billion US dollar offer 120 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 1: to acquire media behemoth Warner Brothers Discovery. 121 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 2: With the little help of a friend and the oscar. 122 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 2: For most dramatic corporate plot twists goes to Paramount skuidehats 123 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 2: tell me what so? 124 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 1: Warner Brothers Discovery is the entertainment joont behind HBO and CNN. 125 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: Warner Brothers Studios, that's. 126 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 2: The studio behind you, Harry Potters. You a lot of 127 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:13,840 Speaker 2: the rings, and don't forget Barbie two. Now. 128 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 1: The company was formed technically in twenty twenty two after 129 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:19,839 Speaker 1: the Warner Media and Discovery merger which was forty three 130 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:21,120 Speaker 1: billion US dollars. 131 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:23,039 Speaker 2: And who's Paramount Skuidance again. 132 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:26,600 Speaker 1: Also a recently merged company between Paramount Global and Skydance Media. 133 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 2: Now that we've got that complicated web merger sort of 134 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 2: b man, what has actually happened here? 135 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 1: Well, Paramount Skuydance has reportedly offered twenty US dollars per 136 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 1: share to buy Warner Brothers Discovery. 137 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 2: And this value is Warner Brothers Discovery at around forty 138 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:40,800 Speaker 2: two billion US dollars. 139 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 1: With the help of private equity firm Apollo Global Management, 140 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 1: who would finance the deal? 141 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,600 Speaker 2: The man before you're too excited, Warner Brothers Discovery has 142 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 2: called the offer too lou. 143 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 1: Don't worry about that, jazzy boy. Paramount Skuydance says they 144 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 1: may come back with a new offer because they're desperate 145 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 1: for even more content. Scale. 146 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 2: So what is the key learning here? 147 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 1: In the streaming industry, scale means basically everything. 148 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 2: It's the ability to spread massive content costs across a 149 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 2: large subscriber base. 150 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:09,839 Speaker 1: Think spreading billion dollar shows like Houses the Dragon across 151 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 1: millions and millions of users. 152 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:13,919 Speaker 2: The more subscribers you have, the lower your average cost 153 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 2: per viewer. 154 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 1: SO mergers like the one proposed by Paramount Skydance aims 155 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:21,480 Speaker 1: to combine libraries of content with audiences. 156 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 2: But BMN scale doesn't always mean profit. 157 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: In fact, Josi Woitt Warner Brothers Discovery might have a 158 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 1: forty two billion US dollar offer, but it also carries 159 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 1: thirty five billion US dollars in debt. 160 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:32,719 Speaker 2: So b Man Well Paramount Skuydance might be dreaming of 161 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:35,840 Speaker 2: a new Hollywood power couple, Warner Brothers Discovery clearly isn't 162 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 2: quite ready to tie the not yet. Yep, Fox am ever, 163 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 2: get caught at the end of the month, I realize 164 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:42,279 Speaker 2: you still paying for a subscription that you thought you 165 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 2: canceled months ago. So if you want to learn how 166 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 2: you can save more money on subscriptions and budgeting, may 167 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:48,359 Speaker 2: shure to download the Flux app and check out the 168 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:48,920 Speaker 2: budgeting tool. 169 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:51,359 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening and we'll see you on Friday.