1 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:05,080 Speaker 1: There's a release out from the Center for Independent Studies. 2 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:11,320 Speaker 1: Their scholar in residence is John Judas, and he's written 3 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:13,680 Speaker 1: a few books. One he's co author of Where Have 4 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 1: All the Democrats Gone? A study of how the Democrats 5 00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:19,040 Speaker 1: have lost working class votes. He's written several books on 6 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 1: America's foreign policy as well, and how the election results 7 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: will impact Australia's involvement in the Ukraine, the Middle East, 8 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: trade policy will look at that. But if Trump wins, 9 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 1: it's because Democrats have lost the working class. Let's start 10 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:36,479 Speaker 1: on that point. I might add, if Trump loses, it's 11 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 1: because of Donald Trump in my view. But John Judas, 12 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:40,240 Speaker 1: good morning. 13 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 2: Welcome, yes hi, good to be with you. 14 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 1: So all right, the Democrats, there's been a shift, hasn't 15 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: there And is that Judah Trump talking their language more 16 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 1: than anything else. 17 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 3: Well, it's partly that though it's been happening over thirty 18 00:00:55,680 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 3: or forty years. And what the Democrats used to be 19 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 3: based primarily in the blue collar working class, particularly white. 20 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 3: But America was at that point, you know, ninety cent white, 21 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 3: so it's a so that was its that and the 22 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:17,400 Speaker 3: Democratic Party looked like a pyramid, you know, the poorer 23 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 3: you get the less like, the more likely you were 24 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:23,479 Speaker 3: to be a Democrat, and the more educated and richer 25 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 3: you were, the more likely to be a Republican. But 26 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 3: the parties have gotten really mixed up. I mean, the 27 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:33,320 Speaker 3: Democrats still have maybe a majority of working class votes 28 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 3: because of they get they get a large percentage of 29 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:40,479 Speaker 3: what minority votes. So, but they've lost a lot of 30 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 3: the white. 31 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 2: Working class vote. 32 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 3: And that's that's affected them because they used to be 33 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 3: a majority party, and now the two parties are pretty 34 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 3: equal in strength. 35 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 1: Okay, we hear a lot about you know, go woke, 36 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 1: go broke? Is that effect to hear the Democrats, you know, 37 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 1: for one of a better term than woke, but more 38 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: work than the Republicans. 39 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 3: Well, I don't even understand the saying what does it mean? 40 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 1: So you adopt the trendy causes? You know, you've heard 41 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 1: the phrase tamp on Tim, I'm sure in regards to 42 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,840 Speaker 1: Tim Welts so famously in his schools put tamp on 43 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 1: machines in boys time. 44 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I understand what you mean. 45 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 4: Yes, that's had a lot of effect on the Democrats. 46 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 4: I mean, to a great extent. 47 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 3: They've become a party of the great Metro centers in 48 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:36,079 Speaker 3: the country that depend upon high tech, finance, higher education, 49 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:42,399 Speaker 3: and their leadership really comes out of that. And it's 50 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:45,679 Speaker 3: from those areas of the country that you get the 51 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 3: most you could say, of votgarde cultural views, some of 52 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 3: which are anaethema in a lot of other parts of 53 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 3: the country. 54 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: So is that driving it, do you think to a 55 00:02:57,520 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 1: large degree? 56 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 3: Well, I I think that that's been a factor, especially 57 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 3: in the last ten years or so. I think it 58 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:09,399 Speaker 3: was a big factor in twenty sixteen. If you look 59 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:14,519 Speaker 3: at the statistics about that election, the single biggest factor 60 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 3: that attracted Trump voters was there was his opposition to 61 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:22,920 Speaker 3: what's called political correctness. I don't know if you have 62 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:26,359 Speaker 3: that term here. You know, the idea that if you 63 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 3: stray too far from a perfect ideal of what one 64 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 3: should say about gender or race, then you're a racist 65 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 3: or a sexist. And I think that a lot of 66 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 3: people felt that they were having standards imposed upon them 67 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 3: and that so, yes, that definitely helped Trump, and particularly 68 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 3: among working class voters, and particularly outside these big metro areas. 69 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 1: And that's why we say the Blue States, primarily on 70 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,040 Speaker 1: the coast, the population areas and a lot of the 71 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: smallest nights in the middle of America being red snits. 72 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 1: So it's been that white traditionally anyway, hasn't it. 73 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 3: Well, no, it's just been the opposite. I mean, the 74 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 3: Democrats used to be very strong in states like Montana 75 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 3: and North Dakota, Idaho. It's really in some ways the 76 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 3: situation is reversed. The Democrats also there used to have 77 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:28,599 Speaker 3: a sure boat in the South, especially in the Deep South, 78 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 3: but that also has reversed. So the parties have almost 79 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:38,040 Speaker 3: changed places. And what the Democratic majority looks like is 80 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 3: something like what a progressive Republican like Theodore Roosevelt or 81 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:48,279 Speaker 3: William mckindley used to get, you know, one hundred and 82 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 3: twenty years ago. 83 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 4: So there's really been the map has completely shifted. 84 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 1: Let's talk about Trump winning because I don't know how 85 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 1: you're reading it, but he seems to have had momentum 86 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: at least up until if the latest poland the Idaho 87 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 1: Poul or is it Iowa Iowa poll is very interesting 88 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: at the moment, showing that maybe there is momentum there 89 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 1: for Kamala Harris. It hasn't been detected elsewhere. But assuming 90 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:18,920 Speaker 1: Trump wins, what does it mean for foreign policy. What 91 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 1: does it mean for Australia. 92 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:23,599 Speaker 2: Well, now, I'm not going to tell you what it 93 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 2: means for Australia. 94 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:27,840 Speaker 3: I've been here like a week, and I was here 95 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:31,159 Speaker 3: eleven years ago for two weeks, and that's not a 96 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:33,360 Speaker 3: good basis start telling. 97 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 2: You what it'll mean for Australia. Let's look at the 98 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:36,839 Speaker 2: will Okay. 99 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:42,599 Speaker 3: So I think on foreign policy Trump has some strength. 100 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 3: So if we talk about domestic policy, I'm going to 101 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 3: have a much different take on it. But Ukraine, you know, 102 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 3: people accuse him of sess of being ready to sell 103 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:57,679 Speaker 3: out Ukraine, but I think we're in a situation there 104 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 3: where something has to be done or else the Ukrainians 105 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 3: themselves are just going to face an endless war where 106 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 3: they're going to end up impoverished and ungovernable, and the 107 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 3: Russians are going to control not just twenty percent, but 108 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 3: you know, thirty percent or more of the country, and 109 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:16,919 Speaker 3: they might even be able to block them off on 110 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 3: the Black Sea. So I think that's really important at 111 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:21,280 Speaker 3: this point to. 112 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:21,919 Speaker 2: Make a deal. 113 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 3: And if Trump has one characteristic in terms of its 114 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 3: foreign policy, it's sort of the art, you know, it's 115 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:32,719 Speaker 3: the art of the deal. I mean, he was willing 116 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:35,839 Speaker 3: to talk to North Korea's leader, which was, you know, 117 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:37,839 Speaker 3: as far as I'm concerned, was a good idea. 118 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 2: It didn't do any harm for sure. 119 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 3: And I think too with China, Trump will be tough, 120 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:50,599 Speaker 3: but you know he always what he said. Yes, you know, 121 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 3: she is a genius, he's wonderful, et cetera, et cetera. 122 00:06:56,040 --> 00:07:00,160 Speaker 3: But we want to post Terris Wars. I think think 123 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 3: what you had with the Democrats was Biden going beyond 124 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 3: what we used to call strategic ambiguity and saying, well, 125 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 3: if if China does anything with Taiwan, We're gonna intervene militarily. 126 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 4: We never exactly made that threat. 127 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 3: So again, I think I think this whole idea of 128 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 3: Trump as a dealer and as somebody who will bargain, 129 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 3: would characterize his foreign policy. 130 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 1: All right, that's interesting. How do you've just come out then, 131 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: you've been here awake. How are you saying it back home? 132 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: Are you ready to predict a winner? 133 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 2: No? 134 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 4: I mean no, absolutely not. 135 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 3: We've had two elections that where the results weren't clear 136 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 3: even on that that evening, and the last election took 137 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 3: what two or three weeks before it was resolved and. 138 00:07:58,400 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 4: This one looks like this. 139 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 3: The thing about you know, American elections is they're not 140 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 3: decided by a national vote. 141 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 4: If you asked me that, I would say, well, probably. 142 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 3: Harris has going to have a slight edge in the percentages. 143 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 4: But they're decided by the states. 144 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 3: And who wins the states, and in the case of 145 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 3: this election, oh, it's six or seven states can go 146 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 3: either way, and you really can't tell. I mean, you're 147 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 3: talking about a much smaller sample even in terms of 148 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:32,959 Speaker 3: the polls when you talk about an individual state than 149 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 3: when you're talking about the nation, and within those states 150 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:40,959 Speaker 3: in the polls there's like a you know, two percent 151 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 3: at most spread among the candidates. So no, it's impossible 152 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 3: to predict. And anybody who tells you they know is 153 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 3: fooling you. 154 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:54,200 Speaker 1: Would you agree if Trump loses it's because of Donald Trump. 155 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 2: Absolutely? Yeah. 156 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 3: I think a different candidate would have had an easier time. 157 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 3: And I thought in twenty sixteen a ticket of Marco 158 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 3: Rubio and John Kasick would have done better against Hillary Clinton. 159 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 3: And if you looked at them at some of the 160 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 3: national results in terms of Congress and who voted for what, 161 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 3: it was clear that the Republicans had even a popular 162 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 3: majority that year. But you know, Trump is a magnetic 163 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 3: candidate as far as certain parts of the population go. 164 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 4: But there's a lot of people. 165 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 3: Who will hold their nose and vote for him and say, well, 166 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 3: I don't I just disliked the Democrats more. And I 167 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 3: think that's the case this year. I mean, he had 168 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:52,199 Speaker 3: a chance. He has very good campaign managers. Susie Wiles, 169 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:56,959 Speaker 3: his campaign manager in Florida, really was the architect of 170 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 3: Dosantos is the governor, their rise in politics. 171 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 2: And if he. 172 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 3: Had run a fairly straightforward inflation and the immigration campaign, 173 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:15,480 Speaker 3: I think he would he might be significantly ahead at 174 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 3: this point. 175 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 2: But you know, he's he's. 176 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:22,319 Speaker 3: A I mean, I compare him to one of Shakespeare's 177 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 3: mad kings. I don't go into the fascism or stuff 178 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 3: like that, but you know, power obsessed, really self regarding, willing. 179 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 4: To say anything, very very. 180 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:37,959 Speaker 2: Little effect of a superego on him. 181 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:42,600 Speaker 3: And you know, talking about putting Liz Cheney before a 182 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 3: firing squad, crazy stuff about immigrants eating cats and dogs 183 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 3: and things like that, and I think that there are 184 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 3: a lot of people that get upset by that. And 185 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:58,320 Speaker 3: I think that again, a lot of his comments as 186 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 3: well as the Supreme Courts OB's decision have provoked women voters, 187 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 3: and I think you'll see and I think you'll see 188 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 3: a big gender gap in this election. 189 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 1: All right, Okay, Well we'll no soon enough and around 190 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 1: thirty hours or so potentially anyway, or even less than that, 191 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: as the results start to come in, and I'm sure 192 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: you'll be watching it very closely too, John, appreciate your 193 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 1: time today. 194 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 2: Yes, good being with you. 195 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 1: Thank you. John. Judas my guess who is an author 196 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 1: and has written books about Well the Democrats and Where 197 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 1: have all the Democrats Gone? Is one of them, co 198 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 1: author of that and also an analyst on foreign policy too.