WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 19 February 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:06.800 From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray Live. Thank you, 0:00:06.800 --> 0:00:09.080 Sherry Weller, the man k. There is a lot to 0:00:09.119 --> 0:00:12.360 get to tonight. CLIVEE. Palmer is now in the twenty 0:00:12.440 --> 0:00:18.759 twenty five election. This is huge news. His preferences, what 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:21.320 is the plan for the advertising, all of that. Our 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:24.360 team spoke with him earlier today. I'll show you his 0:00:24.480 --> 0:00:27.560 comments in long form in a moment or two's time. 0:00:28.000 --> 0:00:32.400 The Prime Minister yet again spinning lies about the economy. 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:35.479 I'll tell you the truth after another set of economic 0:00:35.560 --> 0:00:38.159 data came out today that nobody really wants to talk 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:40.000 about because of course it doesn't fit the narrative that 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:44.360 everything is behind us. Wage growth not pretty in Australia 0:00:44.440 --> 0:00:47.040 and our dear friend Meghan Kelly exclusive the only place 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:49.920 you see on Aussie TV is here every Wednesday night. 0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:56.880 All right, let's go, Paul Marie, let's do this thing. Disagree, disagree. 0:00:57.240 --> 0:01:01.280 That's her, that's her personality. She always sounds drunk. 0:01:01.760 --> 0:01:06.640 She's an idiot. Who could we be speaking of We we 0:01:06.440 --> 0:01:08.080 get to it in a moment or two's time. So 0:01:08.600 --> 0:01:11.600 the biggest story in politics today is that Clive Palmer 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:16.319 is getting back into the race. The United Australia Party, 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:19.400 which he has led over a couple of elections, will 0:01:19.440 --> 0:01:22.840 not be the name. Instead, a new name will be 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:24.880 coming forward. We'll talk about that in a moment or 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:28.040 two's time, but I want to talk about a few 0:01:28.120 --> 0:01:31.600 things as the trumpet of Patriots is the new name 0:01:31.760 --> 0:01:35.640 of the party. Fascinating imagery. Of course he sponsored Tucker 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:38.720 Carlson coming out here, very strong message to a bunch 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:41.600 of people who do not like the offering that is 0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:44.920 currently there for the major parties. But which of the 0:01:44.920 --> 0:01:48.720 major parties will be the recipients of the preferences? This 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:50.800 matters because I want to have a look at the 0:01:50.840 --> 0:01:56.240 performance of the parting United Party or its previous names, 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:59.120 but basically the impact of the Clive Palmer teams in 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:04.920 multiple elects. Now the biggest response for Clyde Palmer in 0:02:04.960 --> 0:02:07.480 terms of a number of people are into the Senate 0:02:07.520 --> 0:02:10.680 and himself into the Lower House was in twenty and thirteen. 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:14.080 Now these are national numbers. The total number of people 0:02:14.120 --> 0:02:17.239 who voted in the Lower House for the Parmi United 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:22.040 Party or its other names seven hundred and nine twenty 0:02:22.080 --> 0:02:27.760 thirteen basically didn't exist in twenty sixteen, twenty nineteen four 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:30.800 hundred and eighty eight thousand votes in the Lower House 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:33.960 and they had their second best performance of all time 0:02:34.000 --> 0:02:36.960 at the most recent election. As you can see, the 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:39.760 same is there when it comes to the Senate, where 0:02:39.840 --> 0:02:42.920 even though the number of actual votes in the Lower 0:02:42.960 --> 0:02:45.080 and the Upper House was lower because it was in 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:48.480 smaller population areas, he was able to get multiple people 0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:51.600 up at that election. Things went a little bit backwards 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:55.320 in twenty nineteen as more center right votes went to 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:57.800 Scott Morrison and the Liberal Party, hence the quote unquote 0:02:57.800 --> 0:03:01.160 miracle victory Welsaw coming. And then when it was bugg 0:03:01.160 --> 0:03:03.040 of them all, well the number started to creep up 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:05.360 over half a million. All of that a huge impact 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:10.880 on Australian politics. Now, I can't stand, can't stand when 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:12.720 people want to turn around and say, well, this much 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:15.720 money for only this many seats. The reality is the 0:03:15.880 --> 0:03:22.920 money matters. Also, preferences matter. If you've got anywhere between 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:26.200 you know, half a million to seven hundred thousand people 0:03:26.639 --> 0:03:32.960 in the Lower House voting one for the Trumpet Party, 0:03:33.440 --> 0:03:35.800 well what are they going to do with the number two? 0:03:36.120 --> 0:03:38.960 If they decide to go everywhere and then eventually make 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:41.720 a decision between Labor and Liberal. The Liberals will not 0:03:41.760 --> 0:03:44.520 get anywhere close to minority government. Instead, it will end 0:03:44.600 --> 0:03:47.520 up being a scenario where most likely at the Labor 0:03:47.560 --> 0:03:50.920 Party will get returned. It will still be a minority government. 0:03:50.960 --> 0:03:54.240 But preferences matter. Now. There have been times in the 0:03:54.280 --> 0:03:57.080 past where Clyp Palmer has made it very clear about 0:03:57.080 --> 0:04:00.800 how he feels about the major parties. And perhaps the 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:04.600 single biggest impact that Clide Palmer will have with his 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:08.960 efforts here is the sheer weight of advertising. His ads 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:11.680 Let's be honest, are often much better than the major 0:04:11.720 --> 0:04:15.160 party ads. They are much they hit a lot harder, 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:18.440 a lot more straight shooting, and a lot of people. When, 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.680 as we're showing you before, there's a frustration with the 0:04:21.720 --> 0:04:24.560 offering that is around right now, when the ads are 0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:26.720 as tight and as clearly defined as they have been 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:29.560 in the past, well we know what's going to happen here. 0:04:29.560 --> 0:04:34.680 But remember, preferences matter. So in twenty nineteen, a lot 0:04:34.680 --> 0:04:35.880 of the people who backed in the part of the 0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:39.320 United Party, they gave their preference to Scott Morrison, and 0:04:39.360 --> 0:04:42.720 I'll be straight up, those preferences and one nation preferences 0:04:42.839 --> 0:04:45.840 were the reason that Bill Shorden was not the Prime 0:04:45.839 --> 0:04:48.840 Minister of Australia. This was his position when it came 0:04:48.880 --> 0:04:53.160 to preferences. However, in twenty twenty two, by not directing 0:04:53.200 --> 0:04:57.120 anything towards the Liberal Party or the Labor Party, it 0:04:57.240 --> 0:05:01.000 meant that people were able to frankly exhaust their votes 0:05:01.040 --> 0:05:04.719 before they got to the major parties and a chance 0:05:04.720 --> 0:05:07.320 of the twenty nineteen repeat was not going to happen. 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:09.400 Here is what he said in fact to us in 0:05:09.440 --> 0:05:10.200 twenty twenty two. 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:15.240 We're preferencing all of the Freedom parties and others. There's 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:18.360 no preferences at all given to the Liberal, Labor or 0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:19.400 the Greens. 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:24.080 Now I mentioned that advertising spend now sometimes sixty million, 0:05:24.120 --> 0:05:26.760 sometimes eighty million, one hundred million dollars. It's his money. 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:28.400 He can do what he wants with it. I'm tired 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:31.320 of this idea in Australian politics about good billionaires who 0:05:31.320 --> 0:05:35.080 back in the teals, bad billionaires who want to shake 0:05:35.160 --> 0:05:37.400 things up and make sure that a certain type of 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:41.800 Australian voter is represented in the ballot. Now you know 0:05:41.880 --> 0:05:44.120 that I've had an up and down relationship and it 0:05:44.200 --> 0:05:46.080 is way more positive of recent years than it was 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:48.880 in the past with Clyde Palmer, because perhaps our views 0:05:48.880 --> 0:05:51.679 have now aligned about the future of the country. Now, 0:05:51.800 --> 0:05:56.400 this is the advertising that was seen everywhere when he 0:05:56.480 --> 0:05:59.960 was going hard against Bill Shordan and against labor rollin. 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:03.680 Takee Bill Shorten doesn't care about you. 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:08.080 He wants to destroy jobs, close coal industry, increase power prices, 0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:09.200 increase taxes. 0:06:10.400 --> 0:06:15.120 Now again that amount of very clear messaging, it moved votes, 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:17.840 and it changed the election result from the one that 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:20.440 all of the camera people thought was inevitable to the 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:23.400 one that we knew was resonating on the ground that 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:25.440 Bill Shorten was not going to be the Prime minister. 0:06:25.760 --> 0:06:28.919 The effect of those ads is really important. The effect 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:33.839 of those preferences, including one nation ones deeply important to 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:36.680 this being a tighter contest and one where a liberal 0:06:36.760 --> 0:06:40.000 party could maybe make its way towards its own version 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:44.040 of a minority government. If not, then we are essentially 0:06:44.120 --> 0:06:46.719 talking about what I believe to be the more likely outcome. 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:49.279 If there is not such a spend and is not 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:52.920 such a preference discipline, that most likely Albanezi finds a 0:06:52.960 --> 0:06:55.200 way to hold on to minority government, not because I 0:06:55.240 --> 0:06:57.560 want him to, but because that's just the reality of 0:06:57.600 --> 0:06:59.760 things as we see now. Our team had a chance 0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:04.200 to Clyde Palmer after his announcement today and there's a 0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:06.679 few issues here about what he is trying to achieve 0:07:06.760 --> 0:07:09.000 by putting the machine back together again. 0:07:10.560 --> 0:07:13.240 I think the excessive waste that goes on in government, 0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:14.720 and I'm a taxpayer too, and I'm one of the 0:07:14.760 --> 0:07:18.160 largest taxpayers in the country, and seeing that Donald Trump's 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:21.960 tremendous victory in the United States and the revealing things 0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:26.800 that Musk has found when he's done the review that 0:07:26.880 --> 0:07:29.360 the nearly four trillion dollars of government EXPANSI is being 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:32.280 wasted every year. Being a former member of Parliament, I 0:07:32.320 --> 0:07:35.200 know that's true in Australia too. I had endless lobbyists 0:07:35.240 --> 0:07:36.960 coming to see me every time I was a member. 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:39.440 Nearly all day my Kalander was made up a lobbyist. 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:41.040 I think it's the same for all of the parties, 0:07:41.040 --> 0:07:43.920 and the uniparty we have the Liberal and Labor Party 0:07:44.040 --> 0:07:46.000 just work together and we get the same old thing 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:48.360 happening every year. We've got to change this country and 0:07:48.400 --> 0:07:50.680 we've got to cut back on government expense. We have 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:52.480 common sense solution for things. 0:07:53.000 --> 0:07:56.760 So about bureaucracy and about what examples he would suggest. 0:07:56.880 --> 0:08:00.320 He told our team this, well, I. 0:08:00.320 --> 0:08:03.800 Think everywhere there's thirty six thousand public servants that Alban 0:08:03.840 --> 0:08:07.440 EASi has put on. At the same time, our standard 0:08:07.440 --> 0:08:10.400 living has dropped in each half of each year. So 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:13.000 you really have to set priorities with your expenditure and 0:08:13.000 --> 0:08:15.560 say I can't exceed that expenditure. This is how much 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:18.000 money the government should have every year. This is how 0:08:18.040 --> 0:08:20.640 much money will spend, and they just don't do that. 0:08:20.720 --> 0:08:22.920 They keep on spending money to their mates in the unions, 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:25.800 the Labor Party in particular, and the Liberals spend money 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:28.720 with consultants. So I mean it's not spent on you. 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:32.920 So preferences. Has he made that early decision or are 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:34.800 we going to all have to wait? I think we 0:08:34.840 --> 0:08:36.080 all know what the answer is going to be. 0:08:37.760 --> 0:08:41.000 We haven't decided the preferences. And it's a democratic party. 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:43.960 The trumpets for patriots, so I think we've got to 0:08:44.400 --> 0:08:46.480 wait and see. They'll be announced in the coming weeks. 0:08:46.480 --> 0:08:48.560 We're still deciding here will preference. But one thing I'll 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:50.679 tell you, We've just done a poll that will be 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:54.520 out next week. Trump's policies are popular in Australia. People 0:08:54.559 --> 0:08:57.000 want change and they want us to come together and 0:08:57.040 --> 0:08:58.920 do that, and we'll be doing that. We're looking forward 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:01.040 to a great campaign. It's a chance for me to 0:09:01.080 --> 0:09:05.280 spend some more money making people have the public debate 0:09:05.320 --> 0:09:09.120 in Australias means that the Liberal Party can spend ninety 0:09:09.120 --> 0:09:11.160 million dollars a year, the Labor Party can spend ninety 0:09:11.160 --> 0:09:13.240 million dollars a year, but so can other people, so 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:16.600 that there's a purity of ideas. Australians need a real choice. 0:09:17.840 --> 0:09:21.000 I agree be fascinating to see that preference discussion will 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:24.120 determine whether Peter Dutton is a chance or no chance 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:26.720 at this coming upcoming election. We'll wait, We'll all see 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:28.880 and I'll keep talking to Clive. We'll look forward to 0:09:28.880 --> 0:09:31.280 maybe him and other people joining us around the country 0:09:31.320 --> 0:09:33.480 as we do our pub tests. Remember the first of those, 0:09:33.480 --> 0:09:35.480 it is going to be in the razor thin seat 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:37.760 of Gilmour on the south coast of New South Wales 0:09:37.840 --> 0:09:40.640 on Monday night. After we've celebrated the good people of 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:42.920 Bateman's Bay fighting back after the fires and there's so 0:09:43.000 --> 0:09:45.480 many things to celebrate. We'll do that on Sunday and 0:09:45.520 --> 0:09:49.480 then we're off to Vegas. Baby. Now let's deal with 0:09:49.480 --> 0:09:53.160 the Prime minister. This bloke lied his way into office. 0:09:53.320 --> 0:09:56.000 That's the truth. We all know two hundred and seventy 0:09:56.000 --> 0:09:58.920 five dollars power that never happened. We also know that 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:01.440 a labor government will lo The cost of living was 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:05.800 a lie. Why because by any and all metrics, we 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:09.480 know what the reality was. That's their promise. This is 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:12.600 the reality since they became the government. Your health costs 0:10:12.600 --> 0:10:15.079 are up by thirteen percent, your petrol's up by about 0:10:15.120 --> 0:10:19.240 fifteen percent, food is up by about seventeen percent, housing 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:22.600 is up by about eighteen percent, and insurance is on 0:10:22.640 --> 0:10:26.079 its way towards nineteen percent. Not to mention how much 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:28.360 people have had to pay extra on top of the 0:10:28.360 --> 0:10:30.840 home loans you've had to pay anywhere. If you were 0:10:30.880 --> 0:10:33.960 at say four hundred thousand, it's fourteen nine hundred and 0:10:33.960 --> 0:10:37.560 forty dollars extra a year that you've been paying since 0:10:37.600 --> 0:10:39.520 this bloke became the Prime minister. Or if you've got 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:42.920 one point two or more, it's forty four thousand, eight 0:10:43.120 --> 0:10:46.640 hundred dollars. Yet the same people who lied that the 0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:48.680 cost of living was going to get better under them 0:10:48.760 --> 0:10:51.400 are now lying that Apparently everything will get worse under 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:56.480 Peter Dunton. Talk about projection. That's lie number one. Line 0:10:56.559 --> 0:10:59.280 number two revolves around the Prime Minister, and of course 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:01.840 the man who will desperately love to lead the Labor 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:04.600 Party sooner rather than later, he will have his champions 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.760 to do so after the next election, should the minority 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:09.600 government be the one that is put in place, And then, 0:11:09.679 --> 0:11:12.199 of course is I'll make grim Jim charmers well. Line 0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:14.880 number two. They have tried to tell you that the 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:18.440 economy is growing, all is fine, nothing to see here. 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:22.080 The word recession, it just is, is nowhere in the books. 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:29.160 Inflation is down, wages are up, unemployment is low, and 0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:33.200 one point one million jobs have been created during the 0:11:33.240 --> 0:11:36.080 course of this alban Ezi labor government. 0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:40.839 But the reality of Australia's growth is that, at best 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:43.240 you could describe it as a car that's out of tune, 0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:48.000 idling at the lights and slightly moving forward. As you 0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:52.160 can see from September in twenty two to September quarter 0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:57.040 in twenty four, the past four quarters zero point two 0:11:57.040 --> 0:12:00.400 percent growth, zero point two percent growth, zero point two 0:12:00.440 --> 0:12:04.640 percent growth, zero point three percent growth. Remember, as soon 0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:07.199 as it's under zero for two quarters in a row 0:12:07.200 --> 0:12:10.160 than we are in recession. So we are only just 0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:13.480 and I mean just out of one and principally that's 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:17.400 because of state and federal government spending. The employment of 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:23.160 a football stadium full of staffers and people working in 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:26.880 and around the public service is the reason why we 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:30.720 are not in recession. But of course the reality is 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:35.720 that the average Australium is in a recession. Have a 0:12:35.720 --> 0:12:38.480 look at this graph. This is actually a symbol of 0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:41.640 just how far growth has fallen off since when they 0:12:41.640 --> 0:12:45.480 took office. Worse and worse and worse until basically it is, 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:47.800 as I said, the car that's out of tune, that 0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:51.400 is idling. That's the reality. So when they talk about 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:55.000 economic growth, they are talking about bugger all of it. 0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:58.640 And that of course means that while the government is 0:12:58.679 --> 0:13:02.440 technically keeping its head above water, we borrowed money and 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:05.520 all the rest of it, the average Australian is going backwards. 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:07.960 Why because the cost of everything see what I mentioned 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:11.440 about thirty seconds ago versus the wages that you have, 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:14.480 let alone the pay rises you are not getting means 0:13:14.559 --> 0:13:16.920 you are going backwards. You are in a per capital 0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:20.160 recession that's gone on for about two years now. Today 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:22.320 the Bureau of Statistics told us that we are the 0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:30.359 lowest wage growth since twenty twenty two. That's the reality 0:13:30.640 --> 0:13:33.960 of what is happening right now, the longest per capita 0:13:34.040 --> 0:13:37.839 recession on record. The national economic figure is not a 0:13:37.880 --> 0:13:41.360 pretty picture. But that doesn't mean that Albo and charmers 0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:44.959 won't continue trying to tell you that everything is awesome 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:47.480 when you know what the reality actually is, which brings 0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:52.680 us to economic lie number three. They love pretending that 0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:56.000 everyone's got a pay rise in the past three years. 0:13:56.280 --> 0:13:58.160 What's the word they say, over and over again. 0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:04.680 Wages, wages, wages, wages, pages, wages, wages, wages. 0:14:05.840 --> 0:14:11.480 Yeah, well guess what with the wages scenario being one 0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:14.640 where as I said, we have had as little growth 0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:18.720 as since twenty twenty two, we're in a world of 0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:21.760 trouble here. This is just the reality now, sure the 0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:26.760 public service gets pay rise and living standards back to 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:31.320 the nineteen fifties. A detailed look at what the Reserve 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:33.760 Bank actually had to say while they made the decision 0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:36.880 to cut rates by four fifths of bug rule. Yesterday 0:14:38.320 --> 0:14:41.520 in the Australian newspaper said, calculating the real household disposable 0:14:41.520 --> 0:14:44.680 income per capita was around one percent lower than prior 0:14:44.760 --> 0:14:48.640 to the pandemic, So we're back before before all of 0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:51.520 the savings that happened in the pandemic. The RBA said 0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:53.920 recent years had been among the weakest periods in growth 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:56.040 in real income since the nine in sixties, as families 0:14:56.040 --> 0:15:01.080 budgets were slugged with high rate hikes and a surge 0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:05.560 in income tax. So they lie, they lie, they lie, Oh, 0:15:05.600 --> 0:15:08.200 we're not in a recession. Well you are. But the 0:15:08.200 --> 0:15:11.120 government gets to say that just puttering along because in 0:15:11.160 --> 0:15:13.280 part they hire tens of thousands of people, and they 0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:17.160 gave those people endless pay rises, not to mention themselves 0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:21.720 as politicians, where they gave themselves three pay rises. The 0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:24.240 public servants got their biggest pay rise in a decade. 0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:28.720 You go backwards. Lie, lie, lie. We'll keep talking about 0:15:28.720 --> 0:15:32.600 it between now and the election. So speaking of latest poll, 0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:35.280 and I think this one's probably a little closer to 0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:41.640 reality and important to set expectations here where we know 0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:45.560 that there has been much speculation there's a minority government 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:48.000 that's almost definitely on its way, whom will have the 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:51.320 most number of seats to form that minority. Well, according 0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:53.960 to some it may well be a toss up. We 0:15:54.000 --> 0:15:58.160 know that recent polling had very strong suggestions that Peter 0:15:58.200 --> 0:16:01.440 Dunn's team could get seventy three seats in the Parliament, 0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:05.720 Labour could be pushed down to sixty six. Well, today 0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:07.360 new poll. I want to get to which is the 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:10.320 freshwater pole. This one is in the Financial Review and 0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:12.560 I think this one might be slightly more realistic in 0:16:12.680 --> 0:16:15.680 terms of where we sit before the election is called. 0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:20.240 Of course, anything can change, nothing is inevitable in all directions. 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:25.880 Fifty one forty nine in terms of the primary vote. Finally, 0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:28.560 the Liberal and National Party has a four in front 0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:30.880 of it that should traditionally be able to win an election. 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:33.960 But that big number of fifteen is basically with the 0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:36.800 exception of the Parmer effort, which we will see in 0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:38.960 the next of the While and One Nation. Basically the 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:41.480 rest of that is center left vote center left vote, 0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:46.320 particularly with local independence that are backed in or by 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:50.480 the Teel money. As for the preferred prime minister bang 0:16:50.520 --> 0:16:54.320 on forty three percent each, look at the prime minister's 0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:57.320 precipitous fall since becoming the prime minister. Look at the 0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:00.600 gains that Peter Dutton has made but also look thirteen 0:17:00.720 --> 0:17:03.680 percent of people who still haven't made their mind up. Now, 0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:05.679 as always I say, look at that number, split it 0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:09.560 in half. Well what ends up happening then? Obviously it's 0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:12.119 not going to split fifty to fifty. It'll break in 0:17:12.160 --> 0:17:13.720 one way or the other towards the election and that 0:17:13.760 --> 0:17:15.879 will give us an indication of where we are going. 0:17:16.520 --> 0:17:19.280 But again, Albo and how much of a pong he 0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:23.119 gives the Australian people have look at that from whence 0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:25.800 he became the Prime Minister to where he sits today 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:29.680 with more people disapproving of his job performance than approving 0:17:29.840 --> 0:17:34.879 of his performance. So what is the seat prediction? On Sunday? 0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:37.400 We were looking about seventy three seats as the best 0:17:37.440 --> 0:17:40.080 case scenario when it came to the Liberal National Party, 0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:42.960 and I told you that that seemed a little generous. 0:17:44.440 --> 0:17:48.919 So the suggestion now is that it will be Labor 0:17:48.960 --> 0:17:52.720 on seventy one seats. They will have more seats than 0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:56.320 the coalition at sixty seven now ten seats, massive massive 0:17:56.440 --> 0:17:59.280 change puts in a very competitive position potentially for three 0:17:59.359 --> 0:18:02.840 years down the train. And at seventy one seats, you 0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:06.359 would imagine that we're going to get something of a 0:18:06.440 --> 0:18:10.120 replica of the twenty ten election that we know was 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:13.679 a massive thumping for Labor just three years later. But 0:18:13.720 --> 0:18:17.399 pay attention watch on here. Obviously Labor would be able to, 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:21.240 in my view, get the five crossbenches mixture of left 0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:24.040 wing teals and I think the Victorian teals in particular, 0:18:24.560 --> 0:18:27.320 we're back in labor. I think that people like Helen 0:18:27.359 --> 0:18:30.199 Haynes will back in labor. And then of course there 0:18:30.280 --> 0:18:32.320 is a scenario of people like Rebecca Shark you who 0:18:32.359 --> 0:18:34.840 have always said whoever has the most number of seats 0:18:35.000 --> 0:18:38.879 gets the negotiation first. So yes, even more polling, even 0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:41.480 more data, even more indication that yes we're headed towards 0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:44.840 a minority, but whom we don't know. But we're going 0:18:44.880 --> 0:18:47.159 to have to play whack a mole with the lies 0:18:47.240 --> 0:18:49.639 and the misrepresentations in the media will put up between 0:18:49.640 --> 0:18:53.040 now and that all important election. Hence why the advertising 0:18:53.080 --> 0:18:55.360 of people like Clyde Palmer really matters because it comes 0:18:55.440 --> 0:19:01.040 up and over the top awful star already in Tasmania 0:19:01.080 --> 0:19:03.879 today with one hundred and fifty whales that have become 0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:07.879 stranded on a beach in Tasmania. This is what we 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:10.640 understand as to why and what happened. 0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:14.320 One hundred and fifty seven of what appear to be 0:19:14.520 --> 0:19:17.640 false killer whales are stuck on the sand near Arthur 0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:20.959 River in the state's northwest. It's believed one hundred and 0:19:20.960 --> 0:19:24.120 thirty six of them are still alive as authorities race 0:19:24.200 --> 0:19:25.240 to save for the others. 0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:29.840 Poor buggers to the people that are trying to keep 0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:32.320 as many of them alive as possible. They're doing their 0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:34.400 work throughout the night, but sadly it does not look 0:19:34.440 --> 0:19:37.080 good for their future. But why did it happen? 0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:41.159 Unable to navigate? There might be some geographical thing that 0:19:41.240 --> 0:19:44.080 stopped them then run them aground the studden maybe deep 0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:47.240 to shallow. There could also be a sick individual which 0:19:47.280 --> 0:19:49.159 has led ashore the others and they've all gone, oh, 0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:51.520 we're going this way. And then while are they strand 0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:56.600 acoustic awareness or acoustic sounds that might have spooked the animals. 0:19:57.160 --> 0:19:59.040 There could be killer whales in the area and maybe 0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:01.239 they've gone, oh, let's get out of here. I don't know, 0:20:02.080 --> 0:20:06.200 or maybe there's so many different things. 0:20:06.080 --> 0:20:08.680 Moreri IFO about that is light to returns tomorrow. Pete 0:20:08.680 --> 0:20:11.600 Stefanovik with First edition here on Sky News. Now let's 0:20:11.640 --> 0:20:13.879 talk about bushfires. Now, I know that there have been 0:20:13.920 --> 0:20:17.600 some in multiple regions around the country. Compared to the 0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:19.840 worst predictions that were put up for this summer, we 0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:22.920 have not got anywhere near those fingers crossed. That remains 0:20:22.920 --> 0:20:25.600 the case for the rest of this summer. But obviously, 0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:28.720 as things like the US California fires, even when you 0:20:28.720 --> 0:20:31.119 get into cold weather, those winds are around, it's going 0:20:31.160 --> 0:20:35.440 to be trouble. But guess what. A former CSIO Forestry 0:20:35.520 --> 0:20:38.560 chief agrees with the common sense view that you actually 0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:40.760 have to do more control burning. You have to do 0:20:40.960 --> 0:20:43.600 more cleaning of the forests to make sure that if 0:20:44.680 --> 0:20:47.439 a fire starts that it will not turn into a rager. 0:20:47.880 --> 0:20:50.639 Writing in the latest edition of The Weekly Times, this 0:20:50.760 --> 0:20:54.000 doctor said that fuel reduction burning was an essential tool 0:20:54.000 --> 0:20:57.560 in bush fire management. Burning a mild intensity increases the 0:20:57.600 --> 0:21:00.879 opportunity for safe for a more successful firefight. When bush 0:21:00.880 --> 0:21:05.119 fires occur in fuel reduced areas, they are reduced in severity, 0:21:05.440 --> 0:21:09.640 generate less embers and release less emissions of smoke and carbon. 0:21:09.760 --> 0:21:13.480 So even a bloke who was around the CSAR agrees 0:21:13.560 --> 0:21:15.640 with the common sense here and that it is essential 0:21:15.880 --> 0:21:19.040 the land management practice in Victoria's fire prone environment. We 0:21:19.119 --> 0:21:25.600 need more mild fire in the landscape, not less. And 0:21:25.680 --> 0:21:28.720 today the first interview was done with Sean Hannity with 0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:31.920 the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and he's 0:21:32.640 --> 0:21:35.800 very energetic offsider in Elon Musk. This is a fascinating 0:21:35.840 --> 0:21:38.600 conversation because you were able to watch the body language 0:21:38.600 --> 0:21:41.159 and clearly they're very friendly, right, So forget all that 0:21:41.280 --> 0:21:43.560 garbage that you know one is secretly jealous of the other, 0:21:43.640 --> 0:21:45.400 or one's trying to take power off the other. That's 0:21:45.440 --> 0:21:47.920 just rubbish, right. They look like two blokes who were 0:21:48.040 --> 0:21:50.959 very happy to be in each other's company. Now, there 0:21:50.960 --> 0:21:53.200 were a couple of moments from this that I wanted 0:21:53.200 --> 0:21:56.160