WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 1 April

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<v Speaker 1>From the sky News Center. This is Paul Murray Live.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you, Cherry, you're the best. Of course, it was

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<v Speaker 1>a big night last night. Thank you to everyone who

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<v Speaker 1>turned up, everyone who watched. And don't forget we've got

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<v Speaker 1>that big announcement today that the leaders will be going

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<v Speaker 1>head to head on this channel first place during the election.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm telling you, sky News it always delivers during an election,

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<v Speaker 1>always lifts. This is what we do best. We've got

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<v Speaker 1>lots to get to tonight. You can always set me

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<v Speaker 1>an m up alot sky News dot com, dot you.

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<v Speaker 1>But I want to focus, as always the start of

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<v Speaker 1>the show on what should be a little bit higher

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<v Speaker 1>in the news, but it isn't because there's not as

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<v Speaker 1>many people who live there. But there will be a

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<v Speaker 1>consequence to the economy. But more importantly, there are our

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<v Speaker 1>fellow Australians that are suffering right now. These floods that

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<v Speaker 1>are in and around Queensland. They are mega, they are

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely mega. The area of this thing is now apparently

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<v Speaker 1>the best part of three thousand kilometers. It is the

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<v Speaker 1>size of Victoria and then some. This thing is huge

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<v Speaker 1>and there are huge communities in the trees that are

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<v Speaker 1>being affected. As we speak. Here's the latest from sky

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<v Speaker 1>News Weather Now.

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<v Speaker 2>Major flood warnings are current for the river catchments shaded

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<v Speaker 2>in red. This still includes the Baku, Thompson and Cooper

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<v Speaker 2>Creek river catchments, the Blu River, and the Paru River.

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<v Speaker 2>There are concerns of overnight major flooding occurring along the

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<v Speaker 2>Thompson River at the long Reach.

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<v Speaker 1>As for the locals, here's the mayor, a.

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<v Speaker 3>Lot of helicopters in the area and they're trying to

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<v Speaker 3>assess stock losses. We have fodder available to drop, but

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<v Speaker 3>you have to find a dry area, you know, to

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<v Speaker 3>drop the fodder for the stock. So it's very difficult.

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<v Speaker 1>And about that about one hundred thousand head may well

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<v Speaker 1>have been drowned or are missing right now as a

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<v Speaker 1>result of these floods. There is a serious consequence to

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<v Speaker 1>our food supply when that mini die or go missing.

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<v Speaker 1>This thing is absolutely huge. A local vet was talking

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<v Speaker 1>to us a bit earlier today about this.

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<v Speaker 4>Very We think that there's been at least ten thousand

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<v Speaker 4>cattle lost. Individual farms we think have losses anywhere from

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<v Speaker 4>fifty to ninety percent. The occasional farm has lost every

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<v Speaker 4>single animal on their place, all cattle and horses.

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<v Speaker 1>Are gone, absolutely terrible. This is not just about those livestock,

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<v Speaker 1>but is of course about their businesses, their farms. People

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<v Speaker 1>may well have been just holding on to be wiped

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<v Speaker 1>out like this. It is a massive, massive story and

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<v Speaker 1>there's a huge number of Australians who really are doing

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<v Speaker 1>it tough right now. The information that we are getting

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<v Speaker 1>is sadly more rain to come over the next couple

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<v Speaker 1>of days. Why because of course the former extropical cyclone,

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<v Speaker 1>well it was coming in from the east. This one

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<v Speaker 1>is coming in from the west.

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<v Speaker 2>Widespread rain of accumulations over the next twenty four hours

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<v Speaker 2>look to broadly exceed at twenty five to fifty millimeters,

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<v Speaker 2>so this could result in some renewed river rises in

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<v Speaker 2>the state's west. There are growing concerns though, that other

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<v Speaker 2>areas could see flooding. Therefore, flood watches are now current

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<v Speaker 2>for southern Inland and southeast coastal rivers of Queensland.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, as I love to say, humans are awesome and

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<v Speaker 1>there are stories of incredible things that have taken place

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<v Speaker 1>as a result of this as people to help each

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<v Speaker 1>other out. Now there is an organization that we actually

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<v Speaker 1>spend some time with on Saturday in Toowoomba, and that

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<v Speaker 1>is Life Flight. These are people who go deep into

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<v Speaker 1>the bush to pick people up off the side of

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<v Speaker 1>the roads to bring people in from their properties. It's

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<v Speaker 1>basically sort of like a floating emergency room and they

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<v Speaker 1>had been involved in many a rescue, including this one

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<v Speaker 1>that was in the newspapers today that a man was

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<v Speaker 1>lost for two days in floodwater in western Queensland. His

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<v Speaker 1>four wheel drive became bogged and he's been dramatically rescued

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<v Speaker 1>after building himself a makeshift shelter and he wrote the

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<v Speaker 1>word help in the mud with a stick. Think about that.

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<v Speaker 1>He was found after walking sixty kilometers by cattle and

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<v Speaker 1>goat farmers who were checking their stock and their fences.

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<v Speaker 1>They saw his scrawled plea and an arrow pointing rescuers

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<v Speaker 1>in his direction on a muddy road at the end

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<v Speaker 1>of their driveway. Life Flight Rescue helicopter service, which was

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<v Speaker 1>on standby in Charlaville for flood evacuations, then launched a

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<v Speaker 1>search and rescue mission for the man after he failed

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<v Speaker 1>to arrive home last Friday night. This was by the

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<v Speaker 1>way that structure that he was under for a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of days sixty kilometers worth of walking that he had

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<v Speaker 1>done very weak, and thankfully because of that aerial support,

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<v Speaker 1>and thankfully because the farmers were out checking their own land.

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<v Speaker 1>He is alive and with us today. Good stuff. Now

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<v Speaker 1>I've got to call out a prime minister. The Prime

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<v Speaker 1>Minister today spent a bit of time in Perth, spent

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<v Speaker 1>a bit of time in South Australia. Couldn't be bothered

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<v Speaker 1>going to any of these communities. It is a disgrace

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<v Speaker 1>that the so called leader of the nation, whom windlows

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<v Speaker 1>or draw will stand there on election night and say

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<v Speaker 1>I've been a Prime minister for all Australians is ignoring

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<v Speaker 1>the very people who are in the middle of this situation.

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<v Speaker 1>More rain in some parts has been recorded as a

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<v Speaker 1>result of this flood event than the one that he

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<v Speaker 1>was running around in that being tropical Cyclone Alfred. You

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<v Speaker 1>can't help but conclude that the reason that it is

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<v Speaker 1>nowhere near it is because there's no votes in it,

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<v Speaker 1>because there's no rolling coverage like there was when it

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<v Speaker 1>was a more populous area in the southeast of Queensland.

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<v Speaker 1>But he is the prime minister. He has the biggest

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<v Speaker 1>microphone in the country and he has a traveling press

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<v Speaker 1>pack with him. Prime Minister, if you truly seek to

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<v Speaker 1>be a leader for all Australians, get off your ass

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<v Speaker 1>and go to this part of Queensland. I know the

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<v Speaker 1>plan is to pretend that it doesn't exist because it's

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<v Speaker 1>good old fashioned National or LNP or Catta country, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's all Australia. This will have way more of an

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<v Speaker 1>effect on a federal budget than what happened in the southeast.

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<v Speaker 1>But of course all of that was just a way

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<v Speaker 1>of changing the subject and I've got plenty more to

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<v Speaker 1>say about that. But it's a disgrace that he has

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<v Speaker 1>not been there yet. If it was any other Prime minister,

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<v Speaker 1>and this sort of situation was happening a little closer

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<v Speaker 1>to town where we all know how the usual suspects will

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<v Speaker 1>be going ballistic. Thankfully, Peter Dudden, he went yesterday thirty

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<v Speaker 1>two days to go until Australia gets the chance to

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<v Speaker 1>choose its next government. Do we get more of the

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<v Speaker 1>same or is it time to get the joint back

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<v Speaker 1>on track? As the opposition leader would say, that is

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<v Speaker 1>thirty two days to go, twenty one days until the

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<v Speaker 1>very first votes are cast, three weeks away. From early voting.

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<v Speaker 1>This is of course, where more than half of all

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<v Speaker 1>people will vote. So essentially there are two campaigns. There's

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<v Speaker 1>the one before and then the one that leads up

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<v Speaker 1>to election day. Today. Peter Dudden fresh from that pub

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<v Speaker 1>test last night, and you could see that he was

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<v Speaker 1>pumped up not just by his family but by people

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<v Speaker 1>who were keen for him to defeat one of the

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<v Speaker 1>worst prime ministers of all time. He's got a pretty

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<v Speaker 1>simple message to those that are doubting what his future

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<v Speaker 1>is in the next five weeks. Well, I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>you've said anything yet.

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<v Speaker 5>I think wait until we get into this campaign and

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<v Speaker 5>you see more of what we've got to offer.

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<v Speaker 1>Albo, more of the same, the money can going off.

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<v Speaker 1>These are all the promises money wise he's made since January.

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<v Speaker 6>A seven point two billion dollar announcement today five million dollars,

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<v Speaker 6>ten million dollars, two hundred million dollars, three billion dollars,

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<v Speaker 6>three hundred and fifty million dollars, two billion dollars, thirty

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<v Speaker 6>seven million dollars, eight hundred and forty two million dollar,

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<v Speaker 6>two point four billion dollars, eight point five billion dollar,

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<v Speaker 6>four point eight billion dollar, one billion dollars three point

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<v Speaker 6>four billion dollars, two point eight billion dollars, two hundred

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<v Speaker 6>million dollar, one hundred and fifty million dollars.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, this bloke's getting cocky. He thinks that everything's rolling

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<v Speaker 1>his way. He thinks the budget was amazing. I'll burst

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<v Speaker 1>that bubble for him in a second. And here he

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<v Speaker 1>was dialing it up to eleven with the press today.

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<v Speaker 6>Seamless segue from global politics to the suburban roller. People

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<v Speaker 6>will vote in an election, all right.

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<v Speaker 1>Longer version of State of the Race with a special

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<v Speaker 1>guest with us tonight, Stephen Conroy, Michael Kroger. They won't

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<v Speaker 1>hold back, no gloves, no politeness. They'll go as hard

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<v Speaker 1>as possible. Team Read versus Team Blue. A little bit

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<v Speaker 1>later in the night, now, I want to tell you

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<v Speaker 1>something that's a bit of a behind the scene. It's

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<v Speaker 1>about what took place last night. And again I think

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<v Speaker 1>the opposition leader for being there. I thank all of

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<v Speaker 1>those people for turning up, I thank everyone for watching.

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<v Speaker 1>But I want to tell you a little bit about,

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<v Speaker 1>as I say, the behind the scenes. Thank you again

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<v Speaker 1>to the Kamiski family and the Eaton's Hill Hotel. We

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<v Speaker 1>love that venue and we love Queensland. You know it's

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<v Speaker 1>my spiritual home. I thought Peter Dunton did pretty well.

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<v Speaker 1>Why because he wasn't getting the glaring faces of the

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<v Speaker 1>people who hate him in the rest of the media,

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<v Speaker 1>who was looking at people, including his family, who want

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<v Speaker 1>him to do well.

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<v Speaker 5>The Labor Party has failed our country over the last

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<v Speaker 5>three years, reduced the fuel tax by twenty five cents

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<v Speaker 5>a leader, the Prime Minister at the moment. Why'd tell

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<v Speaker 5>you this, but the bulk billing rate in our country

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<v Speaker 5>is at seventy seven percent. Harry'll be embarrassed hear me

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<v Speaker 5>call him out. But Harry has just gone into his

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<v Speaker 5>second year of apprenticeship as a carpenter. He's got a

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<v Speaker 5>boost in his pay which means he can start to

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<v Speaker 5>pay some board at home as well.

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<v Speaker 1>He's a good plaq. He really is his father as well.

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<v Speaker 1>All right. There was not much media coverage of what

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<v Speaker 1>we did last night, and that's not me speaking from ego.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just interesting because all of the media was there.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, there was, of course the live blog which

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<v Speaker 1>is at Sky News. You would expect that there was

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<v Speaker 1>the focus on the joke about the sun that was

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<v Speaker 1>the angle Thattnews Dot com dot Au took but essentially

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<v Speaker 1>that was it. Now again, did I expect it to

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<v Speaker 1>become rolling coverage, lead news the main thing. They'd open

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<v Speaker 1>Sunrise or The Today Show with no But all of

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<v Speaker 1>the media organizations were at the pub last night. They

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<v Speaker 1>were there, they saw what was taking place, and an

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<v Speaker 1>actual fact, there was a little bit of push and

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<v Speaker 1>shove from some of those media types. Now put simply,

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<v Speaker 1>the pub last night was effectively our television studio. And

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<v Speaker 1>in the same way that I wouldn't expect if I

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<v Speaker 1>sat here and interviewed Peter Dutton in the man cave

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<v Speaker 1>for cameras for seven, nine, ten to two photographers from

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<v Speaker 1>The Guardian to be standing on the other side of

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<v Speaker 1>the camera. Just wouldn't work like that, as we wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>expect the Sky News cameras to go barreling onto the

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<v Speaker 1>set of the Today Show or ABC News Breakfast. But

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<v Speaker 1>the decision was made by the Peter Dutton team to

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<v Speaker 1>make sure that those people could come and could observe.

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<v Speaker 1>And again I don't have a problem with them coming

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<v Speaker 1>and observing, but they decided to just well some of

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<v Speaker 1>them just gate crash parts of the event. Now, all

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<v Speaker 1>of the stuff was being covered by our cameras that

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<v Speaker 1>had been set up all day, with everything planned by

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<v Speaker 1>an excellent team who put together all of our outside broadcasts.

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<v Speaker 1>But no, no, no, they wanted to get their own footage.

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<v Speaker 1>They originally wanted to have their own cameras where we

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<v Speaker 1>all know what type of footage they'd be getting. It

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<v Speaker 1>wouldn't be anyone who was talking. They'd just be looking

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<v Speaker 1>for somebody yawning or something like that. But they set

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<v Speaker 1>themselves up in a sort of unplanned way to capture

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<v Speaker 1>the alternative Prime Minister and his family walking in. But again,

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<v Speaker 1>that footage really never went anywhere. You see, the reality

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<v Speaker 1>of why the press was there is because they were

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<v Speaker 1>there for only two reasons. They wanted a protester or

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<v Speaker 1>they wanted him to stuff up, neither of which took place.

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<v Speaker 1>One because Peter Dutton was on his game and two

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<v Speaker 1>because we are smarted the loons that have caused trouble

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<v Speaker 1>in the past. And amazingly, again they were there, they

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<v Speaker 1>watched it, and none of them decided to include his

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<v Speaker 1>performance because that would be considered positive. How dare they

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<v Speaker 1>show a moment of levity? But of course if it's

0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:46.880
<v Speaker 1>over on Channel two or if it's on their own networks,

0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:48.640
<v Speaker 1>it'll be front and center. Again, I don't talk about

0:11:48.679 --> 0:11:51.920
<v Speaker 1>this because I want everyone and all eyes on me.

0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:57.440
<v Speaker 1>It's just every news organization was there, yet very few

0:11:57.480 --> 0:11:59.400
<v Speaker 1>decided to report on it. But I guarantee if there

0:11:59.400 --> 0:12:01.880
<v Speaker 1>was a protest, you would have seen the photo. I

0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:04.760
<v Speaker 1>guarantee if he had stuffed up or sworn, somebody had

0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:06.720
<v Speaker 1>yelled at him, you would have seen those grabs on TV.

0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:09.680
<v Speaker 1>And it's a bit of an insight into the traveling

0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:13.160
<v Speaker 1>media pack. As you see with Anthony Albernezi, it's all

0:12:13.240 --> 0:12:16.200
<v Speaker 1>laughs and jokes because, as I've said, they like the

0:12:16.320 --> 0:12:19.600
<v Speaker 1>arrangement as it currently is. Much of the media does

0:12:19.640 --> 0:12:22.720
<v Speaker 1>not want a change in arrangements. So imagine their faces

0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:25.520
<v Speaker 1>looking back at Peter Dutton whenever he makes an announcement,

0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:28.240
<v Speaker 1>or of course, even if he makes an announcement or

0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:30.280
<v Speaker 1>has a good night like last night, quickly changed the

0:12:30.280 --> 0:12:34.120
<v Speaker 1>subject back to made up outrages. That's why they have

0:12:34.200 --> 0:12:38.400
<v Speaker 1>to go around that camera collective and come to programs

0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:41.480
<v Speaker 1>like this to speak directly to you, for you to

0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:43.040
<v Speaker 1>be able to see the videos, for you to be

0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:44.440
<v Speaker 1>able to share them, and all of them are up

0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:46.960
<v Speaker 1>now it's going news dot com, dot are you? And

0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:49.080
<v Speaker 1>to further drive this point home and again, part of

0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:51.160
<v Speaker 1>what I like to do during elections is not just

0:12:51.360 --> 0:12:53.040
<v Speaker 1>talk about poles and we'll get into that and state

0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:54.600
<v Speaker 1>of the race and team red and team blue, but

0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:57.280
<v Speaker 1>talk about media games, talk about how they can choose

0:12:57.320 --> 0:12:59.319
<v Speaker 1>to make one person look slightly better at the other

0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:03.480
<v Speaker 1>person not so good. Now. Tim Lester is a reporter

0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:07.440
<v Speaker 1>with Channel seven. By all reports, relatively fair, but of

0:13:07.480 --> 0:13:09.720
<v Speaker 1>course he's reporting not just for TV but doing stuff

0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:12.840
<v Speaker 1>for the internet as well, and he is what he

0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:16.480
<v Speaker 1>said today about where the Liberal Party had chosen to

0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:19.040
<v Speaker 1>do one of its media events and why it might

0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:20.400
<v Speaker 1>make the six pm news.

0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:28.800
<v Speaker 7>Where's the train? It's just a still paddock. The great

0:13:28.880 --> 0:13:33.000
<v Speaker 7>hidden battle of the election campaign is the picture opportunity.

0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:36.719
<v Speaker 7>Pictures drive news. You get more time if you're a

0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:41.040
<v Speaker 7>leader and you've got good pictures on the TV, news, online,

0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:44.080
<v Speaker 7>on social media, in the newspapers.

0:13:44.120 --> 0:13:45.600
<v Speaker 1>With still pictures, you've.

0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:49.160
<v Speaker 7>Got to get an interesting picture opportunity. Well, I reckon

0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:53.120
<v Speaker 7>Anthony Alberizi so far is being beaten by Peter Dutton

0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:55.160
<v Speaker 7>in terms of the picture opportunity.

0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:58.520
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so they are looking for the pictures to tell

0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:00.000
<v Speaker 1>the story. We'll they had plenty pictures out a lot.

0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:02.320
<v Speaker 1>It's not just not the ones they wanted, which were

0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:04.560
<v Speaker 1>a protester or him stuffing up. These are the little

0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:07.000
<v Speaker 1>choices that they make to go into the six pm news,

0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:08.680
<v Speaker 1>and the six pm news isn't the only thing, but

0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:11.640
<v Speaker 1>it's the big national thing that will feed into their

0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:14.800
<v Speaker 1>breakfast shows, the afternoon news, the gag shows at night,

0:14:15.440 --> 0:14:17.280
<v Speaker 1>and it's pretty obvious which way they play now. In

0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:19.400
<v Speaker 1>fairness to Tim Lester, he says that so far in

0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:21.280
<v Speaker 1>the election, pet It Dudn's been doing a better job

0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 1>of providing the pictures than Anthony Abernese. Even today was

0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:25.760
<v Speaker 1>a chance for Anthony Aberneze to have a better day

0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:28.000
<v Speaker 1>because they were standing in a paddock. What they were

0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:31.560
<v Speaker 1>announcing was significant in that paddock. And because you probably

0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:33.880
<v Speaker 1>didn't hear what that announcement was, this is what he

0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:35.480
<v Speaker 1>was announcing in that paddock.

0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:47.320
<v Speaker 7>Where's the train? It's just a still paddock. It's not

0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:52.239
<v Speaker 7>what we need for a picture opportunity. So Anthony Alberzi,

0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:54.280
<v Speaker 7>you're losing the battle, all right.

0:14:54.280 --> 0:14:56.920
<v Speaker 1>What he was doing, of course, was announcing that he

0:14:56.960 --> 0:14:59.000
<v Speaker 1>won't be putting money in the Sabin rail link instead

0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:01.480
<v Speaker 1>biddings of dollars into our rail link which will connect

0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:03.680
<v Speaker 1>to the north and to the south of the airport

0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:07.040
<v Speaker 1>and back through to the city. Amazing stuff. And by

0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:09.440
<v Speaker 1>the way, over on Channel nine tonight they're exclusive that

0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:13.160
<v Speaker 1>they had documents that had been handed by the Labor

0:15:13.200 --> 0:15:17.040
<v Speaker 1>Party directly to the reporter. Now, presumably this was a

0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:20.720
<v Speaker 1>special exclusive that happened just before the news, but the

0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:24.480
<v Speaker 1>special exclusive was modeling that showed that teams of thousands

0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:27.440
<v Speaker 1>of people lose their job if nuclear power becomes the option.

0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:31.440
<v Speaker 1>These are, of course the same people who used modeling

0:15:31.840 --> 0:15:34.680
<v Speaker 1>to produce this lie at the last election about how

0:15:34.720 --> 0:15:36.720
<v Speaker 1>much your power bills would be cut.

0:15:37.720 --> 0:15:40.960
<v Speaker 6>Reducing power prices by two hundred and seventy five dollars

0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:44.200
<v Speaker 6>two hundred and seventy five dollars a year. There'll be

0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:48.000
<v Speaker 6>reduction for households of two hundred and seventy five dollars.

0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:50.720
<v Speaker 1>Now, I said out as a person who dreamt of

0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:52.600
<v Speaker 1>being able to one day work in the media. It

0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:55.080
<v Speaker 1>was one of very few people whoever got the chance

0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:57.160
<v Speaker 1>to do that. And I've seen it from all sides.

0:15:57.200 --> 0:15:59.360
<v Speaker 1>I've been a radio reporter standing there holding the little

0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:01.840
<v Speaker 1>microphone with the logo on the end of it. I've

0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:05.360
<v Speaker 1>worked for FM radio, for AM Radio, I've done comedy

0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:08.480
<v Speaker 1>shows on Triple M. I've done talk shows on TUE

0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:11.000
<v Speaker 1>and TWOGB. I've seen it from lots of angles. I've

0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:13.720
<v Speaker 1>talked about it on Breakfast TV way back when over

0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:16.080
<v Speaker 1>on Channel seven, and I've spoken about it here for

0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:20.920
<v Speaker 1>fifteen years. I know the little nuances of the way

0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:22.400
<v Speaker 1>that they are spinning the ball, and they are going

0:16:22.440 --> 0:16:24.440
<v Speaker 1>to spin as hard as possible. Remember, for the past

0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:26.520
<v Speaker 1>two years they've been looking for a circuit breaker that

0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:30.880
<v Speaker 1>got Anthony Abernezi back into the fight. At every opportunity

0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:33.400
<v Speaker 1>they have given him the benefit of the doubt. And

0:16:33.520 --> 0:16:36.000
<v Speaker 1>right now they will do their absolute best to make

0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:38.920
<v Speaker 1>sure that one candidate looks better than the other. But

0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:43.680
<v Speaker 1>moments like the pub test one hour uninterrupted, moments like

0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:48.160
<v Speaker 1>the People's Forum next week one hour uninterrupted, mean you

0:16:48.200 --> 0:16:50.560
<v Speaker 1>get to see these people with your own eyes, not

0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:55.520
<v Speaker 1>through their lens. Now. But you didn't hear this about

0:16:55.600 --> 0:16:57.960
<v Speaker 1>Labour's budget now, believe it or not, it's just a week.

0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:02.240
<v Speaker 1>It's just a week since the Treasurer stood up and

0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:04.280
<v Speaker 1>delivered the cost of living budget, but of course he

0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:07.320
<v Speaker 1>didn't want to. There wasn't a lot of detail. They

0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:09.160
<v Speaker 1>all expected they'd be already a couple of weeks into

0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:11.960
<v Speaker 1>the election campaign by now, but because they were definitely

0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:14.960
<v Speaker 1>not campaigning while campaigning in cycling now for it, while

0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:20.400
<v Speaker 1>of course ignoring what's happening right now in regional Queensland. Well,

0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:23.320
<v Speaker 1>of course they said that the focus just one week

0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:27.359
<v Speaker 1>ago of the event that you can't remember was cost

0:17:27.400 --> 0:17:30.560
<v Speaker 1>of living, because every pole, every time tells us it

0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:34.200
<v Speaker 1>is one, two and three in terms of priorities of people.

0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:37.840
<v Speaker 5>This budget is all about helping with the cost of living,

0:17:37.880 --> 0:17:38.800
<v Speaker 5>cost of living.

0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:40.800
<v Speaker 6>Hell, providing cost of living relief.

0:17:40.480 --> 0:17:43.679
<v Speaker 1>The cost of living relief, cost of living relief and

0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:46.320
<v Speaker 1>further to my previous points, the media of course wanting

0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:49.119
<v Speaker 1>this to be a circuit breaker for a government that

0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:51.480
<v Speaker 1>the polls have been up and down on over the

0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:53.840
<v Speaker 1>past of the while more negative than positive over the

0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:57.400
<v Speaker 1>past two years. Well they did the spinning for the government.

0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:02.040
<v Speaker 8>The government will also ensure a million Australians avoid the

0:18:02.119 --> 0:18:06.399
<v Speaker 8>full Medicare levees by increasing the threshold at which it's paid.

0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:09.399
<v Speaker 8>It comes on top of a suite of cost of

0:18:09.440 --> 0:18:10.240
<v Speaker 8>living measures.

0:18:10.400 --> 0:18:13.800
<v Speaker 9>There's been an extension of the electricity subsidies, there's been

0:18:13.880 --> 0:18:19.120
<v Speaker 9>measures to make drug prices cheaper through the PBS, and

0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:21.720
<v Speaker 9>the increases in bolk billing.

0:18:22.560 --> 0:18:25.280
<v Speaker 1>Well a pole came at today, not published by a

0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:28.000
<v Speaker 1>far right wing think tank, but by the Turnbull Times,

0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:31.400
<v Speaker 1>the Essential People. Now they find lots of different headlines

0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:33.439
<v Speaker 1>to print, but you would think it would be somewhat

0:18:33.440 --> 0:18:37.480
<v Speaker 1>relevant that an extreme majority of Australians were unimpressed by

0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:39.920
<v Speaker 1>the federal budget just one week later. It's the reason

0:18:39.960 --> 0:18:43.000
<v Speaker 1>why they don't talk about it anymore. But again the

0:18:43.040 --> 0:18:45.000
<v Speaker 1>assumption of the national media is that you will be

0:18:45.040 --> 0:18:48.119
<v Speaker 1>distracted by what they tell you is the priority of

0:18:48.160 --> 0:18:51.640
<v Speaker 1>the day. We'll have a look at this. Sixty one

0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:56.800
<v Speaker 1>percent of people in a poll in the Guardian, so

0:18:56.960 --> 0:19:02.199
<v Speaker 1>that the budget won't or definitely won't substantially change or

0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:06.240
<v Speaker 1>make any meaningful difference to the cost of living. When

0:19:06.280 --> 0:19:08.840
<v Speaker 1>you break that down, by the way, by party supporters

0:19:09.119 --> 0:19:12.880
<v Speaker 1>forty eight percent of Labor voters, so that the budget

0:19:12.880 --> 0:19:15.480
<v Speaker 1>did not make a difference to cost of living, sixty

0:19:15.520 --> 0:19:19.080
<v Speaker 1>seven of the Libs fifty two. But have a look

0:19:19.080 --> 0:19:22.280
<v Speaker 1>at that number of everyone from the Victorian socialists, through

0:19:22.320 --> 0:19:25.600
<v Speaker 1>the Tiffany Teels all the way to the Trumpeter patriots

0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:30.080
<v Speaker 1>and our mates of one nation. Eighty percent. Now this

0:19:30.119 --> 0:19:32.800
<v Speaker 1>is where apparently the majority of undecided voters are parking

0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:36.280
<v Speaker 1>their vote in a poll. Eighty percent say the budget

0:19:36.280 --> 0:19:41.520
<v Speaker 1>didn't make a difference. But of course you remember that

0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:43.560
<v Speaker 1>the government says it and says it and says it,

0:19:44.240 --> 0:19:46.439
<v Speaker 1>and then the media turns around and reports it and

0:19:46.480 --> 0:19:49.159
<v Speaker 1>reports it and reports it. But just as it was

0:19:49.240 --> 0:19:52.280
<v Speaker 1>after the last budget, is it is after this budget.

0:19:52.840 --> 0:19:55.359
<v Speaker 1>What I told you on this show a week ago

0:19:55.760 --> 0:19:58.520
<v Speaker 1>was bang on, which is not a way of polishing

0:19:58.520 --> 0:20:03.280
<v Speaker 1>my own credentials, but saying, ignore the Canbra collective. The

0:20:03.320 --> 0:20:06.320
<v Speaker 1>Camebra collective plays for one game, and one game only,

0:20:06.359 --> 0:20:09.000
<v Speaker 1>and that's access. And if they think that there's a

0:20:09.080 --> 0:20:10.720
<v Speaker 1>chance that the current mob is going to hold on,

0:20:10.960 --> 0:20:13.919
<v Speaker 1>they won't rock the boat. If they think the current

0:20:13.920 --> 0:20:16.040
<v Speaker 1>mob is on its way out, they do everything they

0:20:16.080 --> 0:20:19.479
<v Speaker 1>can to throw them under the bus. So the Prime Minister,

0:20:19.680 --> 0:20:21.960
<v Speaker 1>the Treasurer and all the rest of them might go

0:20:22.040 --> 0:20:24.640
<v Speaker 1>on and on and on, and the media might repeat

0:20:24.680 --> 0:20:26.120
<v Speaker 1>it over and over and over.

0:20:27.680 --> 0:20:31.640
<v Speaker 2>Jim Chalmers says these changes will mean that by midnext year,

0:20:31.720 --> 0:20:36.159
<v Speaker 2>average Australians will be hundreds of dollars better off. Everybody

0:20:36.280 --> 0:20:37.600
<v Speaker 2>gets a tax cut.

0:20:37.760 --> 0:20:39.400
<v Speaker 10>This is a pretty straight up and down sweetener.

0:20:39.400 --> 0:20:41.800
<v Speaker 7>It's worth five hundred and thirty six dollars a year

0:20:41.840 --> 0:20:42.840
<v Speaker 7>for the average worker.

0:20:43.680 --> 0:20:46.320
<v Speaker 1>But while the road show moves on, Ozzie's have got

0:20:46.359 --> 0:20:49.000
<v Speaker 1>a great BS detector. And when it comes to Alba

0:20:49.080 --> 0:20:52.199
<v Speaker 1>and when it comes to Charmers, it goes off to

0:20:52.320 --> 0:20:57.359
<v Speaker 1>eleven sixty one percent of people answering questions for the

0:20:57.480 --> 0:21:01.800
<v Speaker 1>Essential Organization, which publishes in The Guardian, say that the

0:21:01.800 --> 0:21:06.639
<v Speaker 1>budget no difference when it comes to their own sense

0:21:07.000 --> 0:21:10.680
<v Speaker 1>of the cost of living, which means me again to

0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:13.840
<v Speaker 1>more things in the polls that they probably don't want

0:21:13.880 --> 0:21:18.040
<v Speaker 1>to talk about, because of course the narrative is Dunton's

0:21:18.040 --> 0:21:21.320
<v Speaker 1>in trouble, elbows back. The swagger around Parliament House was

0:21:21.359 --> 0:21:24.000
<v Speaker 1>we're going to get a majority again because five bucks

0:21:24.000 --> 0:21:26.919
<v Speaker 1>in one year. That'll keep the idiots happy. The media

0:21:27.119 --> 0:21:30.360
<v Speaker 1>keep playing for access, they're not going to rock the boat. Well,

0:21:30.400 --> 0:21:33.960
<v Speaker 1>you know what the current narrative is in the media,

0:21:34.119 --> 0:21:35.560
<v Speaker 1>and it's pretty much what I just said.

0:21:37.520 --> 0:21:40.760
<v Speaker 11>Anthony Albanezi has seen a big jump in the polls,

0:21:40.800 --> 0:21:44.680
<v Speaker 11>soaring upwards by seven points in the latest Resolve political

0:21:44.720 --> 0:21:47.800
<v Speaker 11>monitor to Albanese now sets at forty two percent, while

0:21:47.840 --> 0:21:51.320
<v Speaker 11>Opposition leader Peter Dutton has dropped to thirty three. Now

0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:54.479
<v Speaker 11>a widened gap of nine points between the two leaders.

0:21:54.600 --> 0:21:58.560
<v Speaker 7>Labours arehead fifty one forty nine. That's a reversal from

0:21:58.640 --> 0:22:01.840
<v Speaker 7>just a couple of weeks ago, and as well, Peter

0:22:01.960 --> 0:22:06.400
<v Speaker 7>Dutton has slipped in the better prime minister numbers from voters.

0:22:06.640 --> 0:22:09.640
<v Speaker 7>Anthony ALBINIZI now comfortably ahead there.

0:22:10.600 --> 0:22:12.760
<v Speaker 1>But of course just because they say it's the case

0:22:12.840 --> 0:22:15.360
<v Speaker 1>doesn't mean that it is the case. And it's very

0:22:15.400 --> 0:22:17.920
<v Speaker 1>interesting that the very people who are paid twenty four

0:22:17.920 --> 0:22:19.320
<v Speaker 1>to seven. And I know I make a lot of

0:22:19.400 --> 0:22:21.320
<v Speaker 1>enemies with this, but my loyalty is not to them.

0:22:21.520 --> 0:22:23.959
<v Speaker 1>I don't play for the access of those in power.

0:22:24.119 --> 0:22:28.240
<v Speaker 1>It's about you and me working our way through the spin,

0:22:28.320 --> 0:22:30.760
<v Speaker 1>the garbage and the bs geez. I'd like to swear

0:22:30.800 --> 0:22:32.680
<v Speaker 1>like I used to win the past, but you get

0:22:32.720 --> 0:22:35.080
<v Speaker 1>my point right, trying to clean up the act. Well,

0:22:35.840 --> 0:22:38.719
<v Speaker 1>the reality is that Peter Dudden had a good night

0:22:38.840 --> 0:22:41.720
<v Speaker 1>last night. Peter Dudden performed well inside that pub test,

0:22:41.760 --> 0:22:43.720
<v Speaker 1>but of course don't report it because that's positive news

0:22:43.720 --> 0:22:46.639
<v Speaker 1>for him. Instead report that the Prime Minister is already

0:22:46.760 --> 0:22:49.240
<v Speaker 1>trying to pump the tires and scare everyone that he's

0:22:49.240 --> 0:22:52.159
<v Speaker 1>not running against Peter Dudden, he's not running against his

0:22:52.240 --> 0:22:54.320
<v Speaker 1>own series of failures of the past three years. And

0:22:54.320 --> 0:22:57.439
<v Speaker 1>I no, of course, he's running against Donald Trump. But

0:22:57.560 --> 0:22:59.800
<v Speaker 1>isn't it amazing the very people who talk about the

0:22:59.800 --> 0:23:02.119
<v Speaker 1>posts all the time and tell you the news of

0:23:02.160 --> 0:23:04.480
<v Speaker 1>the polls each and every day can't be bothered to

0:23:04.520 --> 0:23:08.720
<v Speaker 1>actually read the poles any deeper than the headline. Because

0:23:08.760 --> 0:23:11.840
<v Speaker 1>if you have a look at the essential poll today again,

0:23:11.920 --> 0:23:13.680
<v Speaker 1>in the Turble Times, there was all that stuff about

0:23:13.680 --> 0:23:16.360
<v Speaker 1>the budget. None of them talked about it because they'd

0:23:16.400 --> 0:23:18.320
<v Speaker 1>all done the sales job. You see. Don't admit that

0:23:18.320 --> 0:23:20.679
<v Speaker 1>the sales job was wrong, because last year it was

0:23:20.680 --> 0:23:22.960
<v Speaker 1>that the tax cuts were awesome. We knew they were

0:23:23.000 --> 0:23:26.879
<v Speaker 1>twelve dollars for people earning forty thousand dollars, more than

0:23:26.920 --> 0:23:29.240
<v Speaker 1>sixty percent of people now saying it didn't actually touch

0:23:29.280 --> 0:23:34.280
<v Speaker 1>the sides. Yet that's what we knew. Well even further

0:23:34.320 --> 0:23:38.680
<v Speaker 1>into these poles, same poles available today, freely available on internet,

0:23:38.840 --> 0:23:41.760
<v Speaker 1>no special deal, no email you have to sign up

0:23:41.800 --> 0:23:45.320
<v Speaker 1>to fifty two percent of people say that the country

0:23:45.359 --> 0:23:47.720
<v Speaker 1>is headed in the wrong direction. I got this wrong.

0:23:47.720 --> 0:23:51.040
<v Speaker 1>I apologize that the country is headed in the wrong direction.

0:23:51.680 --> 0:23:54.320
<v Speaker 1>Just twenty percent say that it is on the right track,

0:23:54.400 --> 0:23:56.240
<v Speaker 1>and undecided is sixteen. So I've got that the wrong

0:23:56.240 --> 0:23:59.320
<v Speaker 1>way around in graphics. I apologize, but that was the pole.

0:24:00.000 --> 0:24:01.600
<v Speaker 1>Fifty two percent of people say we are hited in

0:24:01.640 --> 0:24:05.040
<v Speaker 1>the wrong direction. Oh and those who think the Prime

0:24:05.040 --> 0:24:07.159
<v Speaker 1>minister's got that pep in his step got a bit

0:24:07.200 --> 0:24:09.320
<v Speaker 1>of the swagger back that he deserves because you know

0:24:09.560 --> 0:24:12.640
<v Speaker 1>he's getting a second term. More seats already drawing up

0:24:12.680 --> 0:24:16.200
<v Speaker 1>the political kill list, as was reported by Sharry Markson

0:24:16.200 --> 0:24:19.639
<v Speaker 1>for those who worked with him during tough times. The

0:24:19.680 --> 0:24:21.960
<v Speaker 1>Resolve poll, yes, the one that has shown a change

0:24:22.000 --> 0:24:24.879
<v Speaker 1>in preferred prime minister. But what about the overall ratings

0:24:24.880 --> 0:24:27.400
<v Speaker 1>of the prime minister. Forty nine percent of people say

0:24:27.400 --> 0:24:31.000
<v Speaker 1>poor very poor, thirty nine percent say good or very good.

0:24:31.000 --> 0:24:33.600
<v Speaker 1>The restaurant decided. But even if you split those in half,

0:24:33.640 --> 0:24:35.879
<v Speaker 1>guess what more than fifty percent of people would say

0:24:35.880 --> 0:24:37.720
<v Speaker 1>the Prime Minister is doing a poor or very poor job.

0:24:38.080 --> 0:24:41.480
<v Speaker 1>Don't talk about it, pretend that Dunton didn't have a

0:24:41.480 --> 0:24:45.440
<v Speaker 1>good night last night. Don't rock the boat, show the

0:24:45.440 --> 0:24:47.800
<v Speaker 1>Prime Minister holding up the Medicare card despite the fact

0:24:47.800 --> 0:24:51.480
<v Speaker 1>that there's more money being spent by the coalition. Pretend

0:24:51.520 --> 0:24:54.080
<v Speaker 1>that Donald Trump is the story. Not see how the

0:24:54.119 --> 0:24:59.000
<v Speaker 1>game gets played again. I don't have special access all

0:24:59.040 --> 0:25:02.119
<v Speaker 1>of these poles, all all this information is publicly available.

0:25:02.680 --> 0:25:05.200
<v Speaker 1>But because they want the headline to tell the story,

0:25:05.320 --> 0:25:08.560
<v Speaker 1>or they can't be asked reading the detail because it

0:25:08.560 --> 0:25:13.320
<v Speaker 1>doesn't serve the overall narrative of elbows back, then they

0:25:13.359 --> 0:25:16.040
<v Speaker 1>are deliberately hiding the true picture from you. Why I

0:25:16.040 --> 0:25:20.720
<v Speaker 1>don't understand. Oh yeah, and on the same websitees freely available,

0:25:21.200 --> 0:25:25.080
<v Speaker 1>and even in the very newspapers that print on news organizations.

0:25:25.119 --> 0:25:28.200
<v Speaker 1>I say, it's not just papers anymore. There are comments

0:25:28.240 --> 0:25:33.240
<v Speaker 1>from people to the polsters that they don't report, like

0:25:33.400 --> 0:25:35.800
<v Speaker 1>about Anthony Ambernezi and almost half the country thinking he's

0:25:35.840 --> 0:25:37.880
<v Speaker 1>doing the wrong job, more than half the country thinking

0:25:37.880 --> 0:25:41.440
<v Speaker 1>we're headed in the wrong direction. He's like an immature child.

0:25:41.560 --> 0:25:43.720
<v Speaker 1>He gets all angry when he gets a question he

0:25:43.760 --> 0:25:46.600
<v Speaker 1>doesn't like. Pathetic. We're all going to have to pay

0:25:46.640 --> 0:25:48.680
<v Speaker 1>for the tax cut with interest, but it won't even

0:25:48.680 --> 0:25:51.600
<v Speaker 1>buy a coffee. He's not doing anything. The world is

0:25:51.680 --> 0:25:54.639
<v Speaker 1>changing every day and he's sitting on his hands. He

0:25:54.680 --> 0:25:57.800
<v Speaker 1>doesn't keep his election promises, like on energy, So what's

0:25:57.840 --> 0:26:00.960
<v Speaker 1>the point. Small business has been bled dry by him.

0:26:01.200 --> 0:26:05.440
<v Speaker 1>It's just layer and layer of cost and red tape.

0:26:06.359 --> 0:26:08.640
<v Speaker 1>And again, I bet you didn't see this in all

0:26:08.680 --> 0:26:11.359
<v Speaker 1>I mean think about all the time that there is

0:26:11.400 --> 0:26:13.960
<v Speaker 1>to talk about Australian federal politics, even on the six

0:26:14.000 --> 0:26:16.400
<v Speaker 1>pm news, let alone all the other forums. I bet

0:26:16.440 --> 0:26:20.400
<v Speaker 1>you didn't see this that the Labor Party's primary vote

0:26:20.480 --> 0:26:23.959
<v Speaker 1>is still below where it was at the last election.

0:26:24.840 --> 0:26:26.520
<v Speaker 1>The change of fifty one to forty nine is all

0:26:26.520 --> 0:26:29.919
<v Speaker 1>about people guessing what's going to happen with preferences now.

0:26:29.960 --> 0:26:32.480
<v Speaker 1>The Liberal vote not much different than the last election either.

0:26:33.440 --> 0:26:35.359
<v Speaker 1>But what is very different than the last election is

0:26:35.359 --> 0:26:38.080
<v Speaker 1>the one nation Number one nation's up by four points.

0:26:38.760 --> 0:26:41.439
<v Speaker 1>Pauline Hansen has said if if O one nation preference

0:26:41.480 --> 0:26:45.960
<v Speaker 1>the LNP, that will matter not just in queens Land

0:26:45.960 --> 0:26:47.600
<v Speaker 1>but in lots of states where one nation does a

0:26:47.640 --> 0:26:49.840
<v Speaker 1>whole lot better. Oh yeah, and you know how they

0:26:49.880 --> 0:26:52.640
<v Speaker 1>always say it's the Liberal Party that has a problem

0:26:52.680 --> 0:26:56.080
<v Speaker 1>with women have a look at this. The primary vote

0:26:56.080 --> 0:26:59.160
<v Speaker 1>of the Labor Party is higher with men than women,

0:27:01.160 --> 0:27:05.000
<v Speaker 1>when the Liberal National Party their vote is higher with

0:27:05.040 --> 0:27:10.320
<v Speaker 1>women than the Labor vote. Yes, the Greens do better

0:27:10.359 --> 0:27:13.000
<v Speaker 1>with women, as do One Nation, and it's dead level

0:27:13.040 --> 0:27:15.560
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to independence. But again, no one's going

0:27:15.600 --> 0:27:17.520
<v Speaker 1>to be talking about that, are they, because it disturbs

0:27:17.560 --> 0:27:20.760
<v Speaker 1>the narrative, and I hope it. Saw Peter Credline earlier

0:27:20.760 --> 0:27:22.440
<v Speaker 1>today who did an excellent job of pointing out a

0:27:22.440 --> 0:27:24.919
<v Speaker 1>bit of history here about where the polls were at

0:27:24.920 --> 0:27:27.119
<v Speaker 1>the start of that twenty ten election, where they were

0:27:27.119 --> 0:27:30.720
<v Speaker 1>at the start of that twenty nineteen election, and they

0:27:30.760 --> 0:27:33.600
<v Speaker 1>are even wider rangers than what we're dealing with right

0:27:33.640 --> 0:27:36.200
<v Speaker 1>now about fifty one forty nine or the other way around.

0:27:36.960 --> 0:27:40.960
<v Speaker 1>The media think they shape the election. The media think

0:27:41.359 --> 0:27:45.199
<v Speaker 1>they are at their most powerful when they can do

0:27:45.280 --> 0:27:47.360
<v Speaker 1>their bit for a government that in return will give

0:27:47.400 --> 0:27:50.120
<v Speaker 1>them an inside track not just on how the Labor

0:27:50.160 --> 0:27:52.880
<v Speaker 1>Party's doing when it comes to this election, but why

0:27:52.880 --> 0:27:56.480
<v Speaker 1>would anyone believe modeling that is handed to you five

0:27:56.520 --> 0:28:00.800
<v Speaker 1>minutes before a news bulletin about opposition policy. No, and

0:28:00.840 --> 0:28:04.320
<v Speaker 1>this is the same people who lied about the energy stuff.

0:28:05.080 --> 0:28:10.879
<v Speaker 1>Now I get it. Daniel Andrews, Anastasia Palachet and Anthony

0:28:10.880 --> 0:28:14.520
<v Speaker 1>Alberaneze will also who cares you win an election? All

0:28:14.560 --> 0:28:17.399
<v Speaker 1>that matters is winning well. The reality is people remember

0:28:17.400 --> 0:28:22.000
<v Speaker 1>how you win. Remember Paul Keating was dead in nineteen

0:28:22.240 --> 0:28:25.840
<v Speaker 1>ninety six because of how he won in nineteen ninety three.

0:28:27.320 --> 0:28:29.200
<v Speaker 1>And Albou might think that he's got the inside track

0:28:29.280 --> 0:28:31.840
<v Speaker 1>right now, but there are a very very very many

0:28:31.880 --> 0:28:35.080
<v Speaker 1>weeks and many events, and they may think, let's get

0:28:35.080 --> 0:28:39.640
<v Speaker 1>the debates out of the way early. The fundamentals, the fundamentals,

0:28:39.640 --> 0:28:42.480
<v Speaker 1>to repeat what Peter said earlier tonight, have not changed

0:28:43.160 --> 0:28:46.160
<v Speaker 1>cost of living number one. The government has not done

0:28:46.280 --> 0:28:50.560
<v Speaker 1>enough to change it. And even a survey in left

0:28:50.640 --> 0:28:54.680
<v Speaker 1>leaning newspapers is telling us that one other thing I

0:28:54.720 --> 0:28:57.280
<v Speaker 1>have to mention here, which is the shadow of Trump.

0:28:57.560 --> 0:28:59.200
<v Speaker 1>Now you know I've got the red hat. Listen to

0:28:59.240 --> 0:29:02.160
<v Speaker 1>Steve Bannon at the blow. I'm a big fan, all right,

0:29:02.720 --> 0:29:04.520
<v Speaker 1>but let's not muck around. The next couple of days

0:29:04.520 --> 0:29:06.080
<v Speaker 1>are going to be rough. If he decides to throw

0:29:06.080 --> 0:29:07.480
<v Speaker 1>a tariff our way, we're going to be in a

0:29:07.480 --> 0:29:10.000
<v Speaker 1>world of trouble. Now, how both thought the initial way

0:29:10.160 --> 0:29:13.040
<v Speaker 1>to deal with Donald Trump was to suck up to him.

0:29:13.440 --> 0:29:17.880
<v Speaker 6>This morning, I had a constructive call with President Trump

0:29:18.360 --> 0:29:21.400
<v Speaker 6>just under forty minutes, and we had a good discussion

0:29:21.520 --> 0:29:25.960
<v Speaker 6>about the relationship between our two great nations. We've been

0:29:26.000 --> 0:29:30.080
<v Speaker 6>working calmly and methodically and diplomatically as.

0:29:29.880 --> 0:29:32.640
<v Speaker 1>We do, but we all know what he really thinks

0:29:32.640 --> 0:29:33.840
<v Speaker 1>of him.

0:29:34.120 --> 0:29:35.880
<v Speaker 6>We have an alliance with the US. We're going to

0:29:35.960 --> 0:29:40.040
<v Speaker 6>deal with him, but that doesn't mean that you're uncritical

0:29:40.080 --> 0:29:44.480
<v Speaker 6>about it. He's scared atad of me, and I think

0:29:44.560 --> 0:29:48.800
<v Speaker 6>it's of some concern that the leader of the free

0:29:48.800 --> 0:29:52.840
<v Speaker 6>world thinks that you can conduct politics through one hundred

0:29:52.840 --> 0:29:54.400
<v Speaker 6>and forty characters on Twitter.

0:29:55.160 --> 0:29:57.200
<v Speaker 1>In the next twenty four hours, we will know whether

0:29:57.240 --> 0:29:59.760
<v Speaker 1>Australia and what industries in Australia may well end up

0:29:59.760 --> 0:30:02.680
<v Speaker 1>getting a tariff, whether we will or won't get an exemption.

0:30:03.040 --> 0:30:05.720
<v Speaker 1>They have said friend and foe, so presumably as the

0:30:05.840 --> 0:30:09.360
<v Speaker 1>friends of the United States will still cop one today

0:30:09.400 --> 0:30:12.520
<v Speaker 1>in preparation for it. There was a couple of words

0:30:12.520 --> 0:30:15.160
<v Speaker 1>from the President, but I was distracted by Kid Rock

0:30:15.200 --> 0:30:15.600
<v Speaker 1>as well.

0:30:17.680 --> 0:30:19.960
<v Speaker 3>President Trump, would you ever worry a jacket like that?

0:30:20.480 --> 0:30:22.520
<v Speaker 1>I don't know. I was thinking about doing it for tomorrow.

0:30:23.520 --> 0:30:25.160
<v Speaker 1>We have a big event coming up and I was

0:30:25.200 --> 0:30:29.240
<v Speaker 1>thinking about doing it. So we'll all find out what's

0:30:29.240 --> 0:30:31.760
<v Speaker 1>going to happen. But the one thing absolutely that Albo

0:30:32.160 --> 0:30:35.080
<v Speaker 1>is hoping for the most, that the media will fall

0:30:35.120 --> 0:30:39.520
<v Speaker 1>for the greatest, is that Donald Trump becomes the X

0:30:39.560 --> 0:30:43.960
<v Speaker 1>factor in and around this election, that somehow the political

0:30:44.000 --> 0:30:46.520
<v Speaker 1>fortunes of Anthony Abernezi shoots through the roof because he

0:30:46.560 --> 0:30:49.400
<v Speaker 1>will be in an adversarial position to Donald Trump. We

0:30:49.440 --> 0:30:51.680
<v Speaker 1>will all find out now. For the record, of course,

0:30:51.720 --> 0:30:54.720
<v Speaker 1>I think tariff's against our country are ridiculous. Of course

0:30:54.840 --> 0:30:58.240
<v Speaker 1>they are unjustified, firstly because we import more from America

0:30:58.280 --> 0:31:00.800
<v Speaker 1>than we export to America. And last time I checked,

0:31:00.800 --> 0:31:03.200
<v Speaker 1>we just put eight hundred million dollars in their pocket

0:31:03.520 --> 0:31:06.520
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to this orcus stuff. But they may

0:31:06.560 --> 0:31:09.600
<v Speaker 1>well be big tariff news that happens by this time tomorrow.

0:31:10.040 --> 0:31:13.360
<v Speaker 1>Already every single minister tries to find some way to

0:31:13.440 --> 0:31:16.480
<v Speaker 1>reference Trump, some way to pretend that they are running

0:31:16.840 --> 0:31:21.400
<v Speaker 1>both equally against Peter Darden but also against Donald Trump.

0:31:22.280 --> 0:31:24.640
<v Speaker 1>But are reminded of those of us that are Trump fans,

0:31:24.640 --> 0:31:28.680
<v Speaker 1>that we are the minority in Australia. In fact, today

0:31:29.360 --> 0:31:32.560
<v Speaker 1>there was some reporting again in the Channel nine newspapers

0:31:32.560 --> 0:31:36.120
<v Speaker 1>and via their websites that was kind of shocking. And

0:31:36.160 --> 0:31:39.480
<v Speaker 1>this was firstly about people's view about the presidential election.

0:31:39.600 --> 0:31:41.520
<v Speaker 1>This came out today, but of course it is about

0:31:41.680 --> 0:31:45.120
<v Speaker 1>what happened in November of last year, which is Donald

0:31:45.160 --> 0:31:47.760
<v Speaker 1>Trump was elected. Is a good or a bad outcome

0:31:47.760 --> 0:31:50.760
<v Speaker 1>for Australia. Sixty percent of people say a bad outcome.

0:31:50.840 --> 0:31:54.320
<v Speaker 1>Labor voters seventy percent, forty nine percent of Coalition voters,

0:31:54.520 --> 0:31:56.920
<v Speaker 1>sixty three percent of other voters, and in marginal seats

0:31:56.960 --> 0:31:59.840
<v Speaker 1>fifty eight percent of people say him being the president

0:32:00.160 --> 0:32:04.520
<v Speaker 1>is bad for Australia. There's also a whole series of

0:32:04.560 --> 0:32:08.880
<v Speaker 1>issue by issue here where sixty percent sorry forty six

0:32:08.960 --> 0:32:12.880
<v Speaker 1>percent of people say that Australia should pursue closer relations

0:32:12.920 --> 0:32:17.520
<v Speaker 1>with other countries, including China, over the United States, that

0:32:17.600 --> 0:32:22.000
<v Speaker 1>Australia should support Ukraine, whether that means troops or not

0:32:22.600 --> 0:32:29.160
<v Speaker 1>sixty percent. And what about this threats to Australia. Thirty

0:32:29.200 --> 0:32:32.320
<v Speaker 1>one percent of people say China is the biggest threat

0:32:32.320 --> 0:32:34.880
<v Speaker 1>to Australia over the next few years. Seventeen percent of

0:32:34.880 --> 0:32:37.960
<v Speaker 1>people say the United States what about thirty eight percent

0:32:37.960 --> 0:32:41.800
<v Speaker 1>of people saying all equally. That is frightening. Now, yes,

0:32:41.840 --> 0:32:44.080
<v Speaker 1>taraffs make us all uncomfortable, But if you think the

0:32:44.160 --> 0:32:48.320
<v Speaker 1>United States, not China, is the problem, this is frightening

0:32:48.320 --> 0:32:52.880
<v Speaker 1>to see twenty six percent of labor voters say the US.

0:32:53.000 --> 0:32:57.000
<v Speaker 1>That's more than the twenty two percent who say China.

0:32:57.600 --> 0:33:00.880
<v Speaker 1>The uncommitted voters twenty five percent say China. Thirteen percent

0:33:00.960 --> 0:33:03.120
<v Speaker 1>of the United States and in the marginal seats thankfully

0:33:03.200 --> 0:33:05.760
<v Speaker 1>they see China as the threat. But overall there are

0:33:05.800 --> 0:33:09.360
<v Speaker 1>Australians amongst US who think the US, that Donald Trump

0:33:09.760 --> 0:33:11.960
<v Speaker 1>is more of a danger than what the CCP is doing.

0:33:12.160 --> 0:33:16.400
<v Speaker 1>I remind you right now in this country, the Chinese

0:33:16.400 --> 0:33:18.959
<v Speaker 1>have a boat that's floating along the south of Australia.

0:33:19.480 --> 0:33:22.680
<v Speaker 1>What it is doing it is mapping the cables. As

0:33:22.720 --> 0:33:24.880
<v Speaker 1>Andrew Bolt has shown you in the past couple of days.

0:33:25.480 --> 0:33:27.640
<v Speaker 1>Inside that boat there could be a little submarine with

0:33:27.680 --> 0:33:30.800
<v Speaker 1>the capacity to be able to cut one of those cables.

0:33:30.960 --> 0:33:32.920
<v Speaker 1>Those are the cables that connect us to the rest

0:33:32.920 --> 0:33:38.479
<v Speaker 1>of the world. Oh but Donald Trump's the threat. Albout

0:33:38.480 --> 0:33:40.880
<v Speaker 1>desperately wants every day of the campaign not to be

0:33:40.920 --> 0:33:43.680
<v Speaker 1>about him. What he promised three years ago, and how

0:33:43.680 --> 0:33:46.200
<v Speaker 1>he has failed for the past three years. The media

0:33:46.320 --> 0:33:49.320
<v Speaker 1>playing for access, wanting to change your subject and not

0:33:49.440 --> 0:33:51.840
<v Speaker 1>allowing Dutton to get at a first gear will do

0:33:51.920 --> 0:33:54.280
<v Speaker 1>everything they can to give him what he wants, but

0:33:54.360 --> 0:33:58.719
<v Speaker 1>of course they can't control you, how you vote and

0:33:58.760 --> 0:34:04.600
<v Speaker 1>most importantly who your preference, because that really matters. Quick

0:34:04.600 --> 0:34:06.720
<v Speaker 1>break back with more State of the Race special version

0:34:06.800 --> 0:34:11.960
<v Speaker 1>Kroger versus Conroy, No holds barred ding Dan. Let's get

0:34:12.000 --> 0:34:22.640
<v Speaker 1>into it. Oh, let's get ready. Heavyweights, no gloves, no mouthguards,

0:34:23.040 --> 0:34:25.480
<v Speaker 1>and all low blows are acceptable. None other than the

0:34:25.520 --> 0:34:28.279
<v Speaker 1>wonderful Stephen Conroy normally hit help on a Wednesday. He's

0:34:28.320 --> 0:34:31.560
<v Speaker 1>fighting on a Tuesday. Michael Kroger says, whatever, Pal, I've

0:34:31.640 --> 0:34:34.600
<v Speaker 1>dusted this bloke off before. Let's see what happens again.

0:34:34.880 --> 0:34:36.200
<v Speaker 1>Lad's love you to see you both.

0:34:36.280 --> 0:34:40.640
<v Speaker 10>Parent and Paul. We've carried Conry for years.

0:34:42.320 --> 0:34:44.440
<v Speaker 1>All right, Let's get into autis.

0:34:44.640 --> 0:34:45.640
<v Speaker 10>Try to make him look good.

0:34:45.880 --> 0:34:47.400
<v Speaker 1>All right now, in a second, I'm going to go

0:34:47.400 --> 0:34:49.759
<v Speaker 1>through lists of seats that you're interested in all the

0:34:49.800 --> 0:34:54.239
<v Speaker 1>rest of it. Let's talk five weeks out, four and

0:34:54.280 --> 0:34:56.680
<v Speaker 1>a bit weeks out about the state of play and

0:34:56.680 --> 0:35:00.000
<v Speaker 1>about where you honestly think things to be. You can

0:35:00.120 --> 0:35:01.640
<v Speaker 1>take or leave what I just said at the start

0:35:01.640 --> 0:35:04.560
<v Speaker 1>there that perhaps, surprise surprise, the budget wasn't what they

0:35:04.560 --> 0:35:07.920
<v Speaker 1>all thought it was one week ago, surprise surprise, just

0:35:07.960 --> 0:35:10.600
<v Speaker 1>like it always is. But it didn't matter to the media.

0:35:10.640 --> 0:35:12.600
<v Speaker 1>And even again, what the media did last night were

0:35:12.600 --> 0:35:14.279
<v Speaker 1>the only reason they were at that thing with Peter

0:35:14.360 --> 0:35:16.600
<v Speaker 1>Dutton was because they wanted a gaff or a protester.

0:35:16.760 --> 0:35:19.839
<v Speaker 1>But if it's a good night, sh don't don't show

0:35:19.880 --> 0:35:22.600
<v Speaker 1>any of it. Michael whiter than that start of the race?

0:35:22.640 --> 0:35:23.680
<v Speaker 1>What do you feel right now?

0:35:25.600 --> 0:35:27.399
<v Speaker 10>So, first of all, well done last night. I thought

0:35:27.440 --> 0:35:30.399
<v Speaker 10>that was a brilliant piece of television and I thought

0:35:30.480 --> 0:35:34.160
<v Speaker 10>Peter Dutton was superb and great job by you mate.

0:35:34.719 --> 0:35:35.839
<v Speaker 10>What is the start of the race?

0:35:35.920 --> 0:35:36.280
<v Speaker 1>Okay?

0:35:36.360 --> 0:35:38.400
<v Speaker 10>So the state of race is this. Between the middle

0:35:38.440 --> 0:35:41.520
<v Speaker 10>of February and the end of March, Peter Dutton lost ground.

0:35:42.520 --> 0:35:46.359
<v Speaker 10>They had lost momentum. Carloms too sure in the last

0:35:46.440 --> 0:35:48.879
<v Speaker 10>couple of days he's now picked up that momentum. Why

0:35:49.000 --> 0:35:51.879
<v Speaker 10>because he's making big announcements. The momentum is now back

0:35:51.920 --> 0:35:54.320
<v Speaker 10>with Dutton. This will take days and a week or

0:35:54.360 --> 0:35:57.200
<v Speaker 10>so to figure into the polling. The momentum is now

0:35:57.239 --> 0:36:01.160
<v Speaker 10>back with Peter Dutton. He looks more aggressive, more energized.

0:36:02.120 --> 0:36:05.560
<v Speaker 10>You know, he's full of big announcements. On the other hand, Albow,

0:36:05.600 --> 0:36:09.680
<v Speaker 10>who's not a good campaigner, seems very placid, almost sleepy.

0:36:10.160 --> 0:36:12.759
<v Speaker 10>He's got to stop doing these Medicare announcements because people

0:36:12.760 --> 0:36:15.520
<v Speaker 10>are thinking five days, you've had five announcements in front

0:36:15.520 --> 0:36:17.760
<v Speaker 10>of the Medicare sign. People are saying to it, Malbow,

0:36:18.560 --> 0:36:21.600
<v Speaker 10>Medicare is not under threat. It's not going to be gutted. Mate,

0:36:22.040 --> 0:36:24.880
<v Speaker 10>get out and meet some real people, make some real announcements.

0:36:24.880 --> 0:36:27.960
<v Speaker 10>But as I said the other week, mate, Albow's problem

0:36:28.000 --> 0:36:30.879
<v Speaker 10>is there are so many topics he cannot go near.

0:36:31.400 --> 0:36:34.400
<v Speaker 10>The only topics he can really go near a Medicare

0:36:34.520 --> 0:36:38.640
<v Speaker 10>and Trump. He can't go near immigration, cost of living,

0:36:39.680 --> 0:36:48.040
<v Speaker 10>power prices, Jewish community, crime, safety, housing, young people. The

0:36:48.120 --> 0:36:51.280
<v Speaker 10>list goes on and on. He'll be a very short

0:36:51.360 --> 0:36:54.200
<v Speaker 10>visit with the Victorian Premier to morrow, if she appears

0:36:54.239 --> 0:36:58.719
<v Speaker 10>at all. Chris Bowen's disappeared. There's so much he can't do.

0:36:58.840 --> 0:37:00.520
<v Speaker 10>So what does you do every day it's in front

0:37:00.520 --> 0:37:02.759
<v Speaker 10>of the Medicare sign. He's been doing this for five days.

0:37:02.760 --> 0:37:05.600
<v Speaker 10>He's got to stop this. People are saying, this guy's

0:37:05.640 --> 0:37:08.360
<v Speaker 10>got nothing to announce. Well, so his problem is that

0:37:08.360 --> 0:37:10.000
<v Speaker 10>doesn't have to be much in his locker. There seems

0:37:10.040 --> 0:37:11.920
<v Speaker 10>to be a lot in Peter Dutton's locker, and the

0:37:12.000 --> 0:37:13.720
<v Speaker 10>momentum is now back with Peter Dutton.

0:37:13.960 --> 0:37:16.120
<v Speaker 1>It is interesting, by the way, when we talk about

0:37:16.840 --> 0:37:19.200
<v Speaker 1>the leaders right South Australia, I think Melanowskus has an

0:37:19.200 --> 0:37:22.120
<v Speaker 1>approval preferred premium eighty five percent, right, So he's hoping

0:37:22.120 --> 0:37:25.160
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of Melanowskus dust falls his way. But

0:37:25.239 --> 0:37:26.920
<v Speaker 1>in Victoria he wants to be as far away from

0:37:26.960 --> 0:37:29.800
<v Speaker 1>justinto Allen as possible, and we know that Chrismins shows

0:37:29.840 --> 0:37:32.520
<v Speaker 1>him up when he gets to New South Wales. But Stephen,

0:37:32.680 --> 0:37:34.359
<v Speaker 1>we're not going to deny where the bookies are, where

0:37:34.360 --> 0:37:36.600
<v Speaker 1>the poles are, all the rest of it. But the

0:37:36.640 --> 0:37:39.960
<v Speaker 1>full picture of the polls and especially that failed the

0:37:40.040 --> 0:37:42.520
<v Speaker 1>land when it comes to the budget is a little sober.

0:37:42.560 --> 0:37:44.960
<v Speaker 1>Reminded all those people who were saying in around the

0:37:45.000 --> 0:37:48.200
<v Speaker 1>corridors of Labor we're not just back, we could win

0:37:48.280 --> 0:37:49.120
<v Speaker 1>ninety seats.

0:37:51.560 --> 0:37:55.560
<v Speaker 12>Well, I think that's that's getting a little ambitious. I

0:37:55.600 --> 0:37:59.560
<v Speaker 12>think I can't remember the last budgets delivered by the

0:37:59.560 --> 0:38:04.960
<v Speaker 12>political party they've seen any significant bounce in the polling

0:38:05.000 --> 0:38:07.480
<v Speaker 12>that's followed over the next couple of weeks. So I

0:38:07.640 --> 0:38:11.040
<v Speaker 12>wasn't expecting this budget to be any different to the

0:38:11.080 --> 0:38:17.000
<v Speaker 12>last ten or twelve. What has Michael mentioned a little bit,

0:38:17.080 --> 0:38:20.880
<v Speaker 12>I mean agrew with Michael's analysis on substance, and I

0:38:20.920 --> 0:38:23.480
<v Speaker 12>think at times in a parallel universe to Michael and

0:38:23.520 --> 0:38:25.480
<v Speaker 12>some of his analysis of what's actually gone on in

0:38:25.560 --> 0:38:30.040
<v Speaker 12>the campaign so far. Peter Dutton has had probably is worse.

0:38:30.080 --> 0:38:33.920
<v Speaker 12>And I've admired his ability to keep the Liberal Party together.

0:38:34.000 --> 0:38:37.279
<v Speaker 12>That is an incredible achievement in the first term after

0:38:37.320 --> 0:38:38.680
<v Speaker 12>you lose, and.

0:38:38.640 --> 0:38:39.640
<v Speaker 1>He's performed well.

0:38:40.040 --> 0:38:42.680
<v Speaker 12>But about the last four weeks he's just had a

0:38:42.680 --> 0:38:45.399
<v Speaker 12>few stumbles and fumbles and looks like he's a bit

0:38:45.440 --> 0:38:46.160
<v Speaker 12>down on confidence.

0:38:46.200 --> 0:38:46.319
<v Speaker 1>Now.

0:38:46.320 --> 0:38:48.600
<v Speaker 12>I think he will he'll come back during the campaigns

0:38:49.600 --> 0:38:53.080
<v Speaker 12>to Michael's point, he will make some announcements and they

0:38:53.120 --> 0:38:55.040
<v Speaker 12>will get him a little bit more traction. But I

0:38:55.080 --> 0:38:58.719
<v Speaker 12>think it's undeniable to anybody observing that Peter Dutton's had

0:38:58.760 --> 0:38:59.440
<v Speaker 12>a pretty.

0:38:59.520 --> 0:39:00.880
<v Speaker 1>Rough four weeks.

0:39:01.239 --> 0:39:05.359
<v Speaker 12>Albo Albo, who has been accused of as Michael just did,

0:39:05.400 --> 0:39:08.920
<v Speaker 12>of being you know, looking like he's in retirement mode.

0:39:09.480 --> 0:39:14.520
<v Speaker 12>Albow's actually had his best few weeks, coinciding with Dutton

0:39:15.320 --> 0:39:16.399
<v Speaker 12>struggling a little bit.

0:39:17.440 --> 0:39:18.400
<v Speaker 1>And so.

0:39:20.360 --> 0:39:23.000
<v Speaker 12>If you were asking what seat number would I pick today,

0:39:23.520 --> 0:39:26.160
<v Speaker 12>I probably put Labor on seventy two, maybe seventy three,

0:39:26.640 --> 0:39:28.799
<v Speaker 12>depending on a couple of seats are just too hard

0:39:28.800 --> 0:39:32.280
<v Speaker 12>to call, which would mean they were form minority governments.

0:39:33.080 --> 0:39:35.480
<v Speaker 12>So that's I know, we're going to talk about seats

0:39:35.480 --> 0:39:38.680
<v Speaker 12>at length, and this will be the most complex election night.

0:39:38.719 --> 0:39:41.080
<v Speaker 12>I mean, Tom Connell will be right across it, so

0:39:41.360 --> 0:39:43.840
<v Speaker 12>to all your views out there, tune in. Tom Connell

0:39:43.840 --> 0:39:47.040
<v Speaker 12>will be on top of this. I know other channels

0:39:47.080 --> 0:39:52.000
<v Speaker 12>have got spookers, but watched Tom Connall on election night.

0:39:52.040 --> 0:39:55.360
<v Speaker 12>He will be dissecting seats going in four or five

0:39:55.520 --> 0:39:57.879
<v Speaker 12>different directions. And this is going to be a real

0:39:57.960 --> 0:40:01.279
<v Speaker 12>challenge for those of us who FOLLOWUPOLO. It's not going

0:40:01.320 --> 0:40:02.480
<v Speaker 12>to be a normal election night.

0:40:02.719 --> 0:40:05.200
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, bloody oath. And not to mention again the complexity

0:40:05.200 --> 0:40:07.680
<v Speaker 1>all the way from North Queensland Tasmania. And we know,

0:40:07.760 --> 0:40:10.239
<v Speaker 1>of course the game out west, which is that conversation

0:40:10.320 --> 0:40:12.560
<v Speaker 1>about you know, if it's a relatively good nine, if

0:40:12.600 --> 0:40:15.719
<v Speaker 1>things weren't as bad in Victoria, is it seventy seventy one,

0:40:15.840 --> 0:40:17.920
<v Speaker 1>seventy two or the other way around all of that.

0:40:17.960 --> 0:40:21.000
<v Speaker 1>Of course, we learn together, but let's also just be

0:40:21.040 --> 0:40:24.359
<v Speaker 1>adults and have the adult conversation with everyone watching. What's

0:40:24.400 --> 0:40:29.160
<v Speaker 1>the greatest worry you have for your side? Though, Stephen, Look, I.

0:40:29.080 --> 0:40:34.439
<v Speaker 12>Think albow in the last campaign had a really bad

0:40:34.480 --> 0:40:37.320
<v Speaker 12>first week. He was don off with COVID for a week,

0:40:38.360 --> 0:40:41.440
<v Speaker 12>and then he built momentum after that, so he just

0:40:41.480 --> 0:40:44.600
<v Speaker 12>needs to stay match fit. I think he's absolutely had

0:40:44.920 --> 0:40:47.400
<v Speaker 12>a very good few days. I'm going to disagree strongly

0:40:47.480 --> 0:40:51.359
<v Speaker 12>with Michael, so I think that this is an election

0:40:51.520 --> 0:40:54.600
<v Speaker 12>campaign for the first time and probably five six seven

0:40:54.640 --> 0:40:57.440
<v Speaker 12>election campaigns where the performance of the leaders during the

0:40:57.520 --> 0:41:00.600
<v Speaker 12>campaign is going to be a critical factor. So we

0:41:00.680 --> 0:41:03.359
<v Speaker 12>need our Bo to keep going like he's had so far,

0:41:03.800 --> 0:41:09.080
<v Speaker 12>because that's been high quality, and he's looking like he's engaged,

0:41:09.120 --> 0:41:11.040
<v Speaker 12>he's looking like he's got a little bit of passion,

0:41:12.120 --> 0:41:13.960
<v Speaker 12>and I think he's come out of a blox, whereas

0:41:13.960 --> 0:41:15.680
<v Speaker 12>I think Peter has just had a bit of a

0:41:15.680 --> 0:41:18.959
<v Speaker 12>fumble in the blocks. I absolutely accept I think he'll

0:41:19.120 --> 0:41:21.360
<v Speaker 12>he'll pick up and come through and those poles will tighten.

0:41:21.400 --> 0:41:24.360
<v Speaker 12>I mean, any Labor voters out there, do not for

0:41:24.440 --> 0:41:27.600
<v Speaker 12>a moment that complacent. The polls will tighten as they

0:41:27.719 --> 0:41:29.680
<v Speaker 12>always do during the election campaign.

0:41:30.160 --> 0:41:33.080
<v Speaker 1>Michael, you'll worry for your team.

0:41:33.520 --> 0:41:36.000
<v Speaker 10>Look, my biggest fear is that labor will try and

0:41:36.080 --> 0:41:38.759
<v Speaker 10>do Daniel Andrews, which is what Andrews did at the

0:41:38.800 --> 0:41:41.480
<v Speaker 10>eighteen and twenty two state elections here in Victoria. He

0:41:41.520 --> 0:41:44.000
<v Speaker 10>didn't care what effect it had on the budget. He

0:41:44.160 --> 0:41:47.880
<v Speaker 10>just threw billions at suburban rail link and whatever else,

0:41:48.560 --> 0:41:51.080
<v Speaker 10>plundered Victoria into an economic crisis. But he won the

0:41:51.080 --> 0:41:54.839
<v Speaker 10>two elections. Now he's gone. He'll take just In Ellan

0:41:54.920 --> 0:41:58.000
<v Speaker 10>down with him, but he's bankrupted Victoria. So the biggest

0:41:58.000 --> 0:42:01.479
<v Speaker 10>worries that Albo says, Listen, I'm going to fall behind

0:42:01.520 --> 0:42:04.879
<v Speaker 10>in the polls, which is about to I need to win.

0:42:05.000 --> 0:42:06.640
<v Speaker 10>I'm not going to be labeled as the first prime

0:42:06.640 --> 0:42:09.000
<v Speaker 10>minister in ninety years. Blah blah blah blah blah. I

0:42:09.000 --> 0:42:12.160
<v Speaker 10>don't care what it costs. I'm going to bring dental

0:42:12.960 --> 0:42:18.360
<v Speaker 10>into medicare, so across the nation, everyone's dental is covered

0:42:18.360 --> 0:42:21.359
<v Speaker 10>by your Medicare card, to which people will say, Albo,

0:42:21.520 --> 0:42:23.400
<v Speaker 10>that's going to cost tens of billions a year. You

0:42:23.440 --> 0:42:25.839
<v Speaker 10>can't be serious. And he will just say I'm doing

0:42:25.840 --> 0:42:27.600
<v Speaker 10>it anyway, or I'm doing it for everyone up to

0:42:27.680 --> 0:42:30.840
<v Speaker 10>thirty or everyone over forty, or or something right, some big,

0:42:30.920 --> 0:42:35.200
<v Speaker 10>outrageous economic policy, because more people will be keen on

0:42:35.280 --> 0:42:37.759
<v Speaker 10>voting for that than are worried about the debt. So

0:42:38.239 --> 0:42:40.360
<v Speaker 10>that's my biggest worry that he just basically says, so

0:42:40.400 --> 0:42:42.160
<v Speaker 10>I'm going to blow the budget. I don't give a stuff.

0:42:42.400 --> 0:42:45.959
<v Speaker 1>Well, the People's Forum it will be next Tuesday here

0:42:46.040 --> 0:42:48.200
<v Speaker 1>on Sky News. So what a week that's been. We're

0:42:48.239 --> 0:42:49.919
<v Speaker 1>a week ago. It's the budget. We had the pub

0:42:49.960 --> 0:42:53.040
<v Speaker 1>test last night. People's Forum, the first and currently only

0:42:53.040 --> 0:42:57.200
<v Speaker 1>confirmed a confrontation between the two leaders, not involving, of course,

0:42:57.640 --> 0:43:00.799
<v Speaker 1>the smart arsery of the media, but normal people asking

0:43:00.880 --> 0:43:03.359
<v Speaker 1>whatever they want. Karen Gilbert explains how it's all been

0:43:03.360 --> 0:43:05.360
<v Speaker 1>put together and who will pick the audience.

0:43:06.800 --> 0:43:11.400
<v Speaker 13>Sky News has secured the first leader's debate of campaign

0:43:11.520 --> 0:43:15.280
<v Speaker 13>twenty twenty five, the Sky News Daily Telegraph People's Forum.

0:43:15.640 --> 0:43:18.480
<v Speaker 13>It's going to be seven thirty pm Tuesday, April eight.

0:43:18.640 --> 0:43:21.520
<v Speaker 13>Make sure you join us, will be live from Western Sydney.

0:43:21.600 --> 0:43:26.520
<v Speaker 13>A key moment in the campaign, Anthony Alberizi head to

0:43:26.560 --> 0:43:29.840
<v Speaker 13>head with Peter Dutton, the first time the two leaders

0:43:30.000 --> 0:43:33.680
<v Speaker 13>will debate in this campaign. And well before people start voting.

0:43:34.960 --> 0:43:36.960
<v Speaker 1>Now, lads, we'll go through seats. We'll talk about the

0:43:36.960 --> 0:43:38.640
<v Speaker 1>Trump effect in a moment. But I wanted to tell

0:43:38.640 --> 0:43:41.359
<v Speaker 1>you about my experience in the seat of Groom, which

0:43:41.400 --> 0:43:44.440
<v Speaker 1>is the seat surrounding to Woomba. Guth Hamilton is their

0:43:44.480 --> 0:43:46.960
<v Speaker 1>local MP. Good bloke, always been kind to us, did

0:43:47.000 --> 0:43:49.160
<v Speaker 1>very well at the last election. But of course he's

0:43:49.200 --> 0:43:52.440
<v Speaker 1>being hunted by a teal. This one thinks they're going

0:43:52.440 --> 0:43:54.399
<v Speaker 1>to get him this time. They're out there telling all

0:43:54.400 --> 0:43:56.920
<v Speaker 1>in Sundry it's a marginal seat. Someone might want to

0:43:57.000 --> 0:43:59.920
<v Speaker 1>tell either the bookies or the modelers or the people

0:44:00.040 --> 0:44:02.200
<v Speaker 1>actually know what they're talking about. Now. Of course, you

0:44:02.280 --> 0:44:04.720
<v Speaker 1>blokes know there is a difference between a pub test,

0:44:04.840 --> 0:44:07.120
<v Speaker 1>which is overtly political, and the outtown, which is the

0:44:07.160 --> 0:44:10.120
<v Speaker 1>celebration of a local area. Okay, well, the first time

0:44:10.120 --> 0:44:15.200
<v Speaker 1>we heard from this teal of Community Independent was of course,

0:44:15.400 --> 0:44:18.719
<v Speaker 1>I think, only on Friday, right, because they demanded to

0:44:18.760 --> 0:44:20.760
<v Speaker 1>be on the show. They thought this was a forum

0:44:20.800 --> 0:44:22.680
<v Speaker 1>that was going to be delivered as a free kick

0:44:22.719 --> 0:44:24.640
<v Speaker 1>to the liberal MP. The only problem was it was

0:44:24.640 --> 0:44:28.200
<v Speaker 1>a celebration of to Woomba, so they decided to turn

0:44:28.239 --> 0:44:31.080
<v Speaker 1>it into a thing. And this is sort of stalking,

0:44:31.200 --> 0:44:33.040
<v Speaker 1>but I'll show it to you anyway.

0:44:34.400 --> 0:44:36.760
<v Speaker 8>So grat we're trying to track down Paul Murray.

0:44:37.040 --> 0:44:38.680
<v Speaker 1>It's a bit like the Scarlet Pimpernel.

0:44:38.760 --> 0:44:41.440
<v Speaker 3>He's seeking here, we're seeking there, and we just.

0:44:41.440 --> 0:44:44.320
<v Speaker 7>Need to put an independent point of view to it.

0:44:44.440 --> 0:44:47.040
<v Speaker 8>One hundred percent agree with that independent point of view.

0:44:47.040 --> 0:44:49.040
<v Speaker 2>So we try to track him down where we thought

0:44:49.040 --> 0:44:50.280
<v Speaker 2>he'd be a jellatissimo.

0:44:50.680 --> 0:44:53.319
<v Speaker 7>Yep. So let's try Harvey Norman where we've got a

0:44:53.360 --> 0:44:54.400
<v Speaker 7>tip that he's out there.

0:44:54.520 --> 0:44:55.600
<v Speaker 3>Here we go bring it on.

0:44:57.440 --> 0:45:01.600
<v Speaker 1>Firstly, can't use a phone. Secondly, Gelasis was in the

0:45:01.760 --> 0:45:04.640
<v Speaker 1>CBD of toa Womba and we were there for an hour.

0:45:05.360 --> 0:45:07.200
<v Speaker 1>We were at having on them for two and a

0:45:07.239 --> 0:45:10.520
<v Speaker 1>half hours, and she couldn't find us or Michael. She

0:45:10.560 --> 0:45:13.000
<v Speaker 1>didn't want to find us and just wanted it to

0:45:13.000 --> 0:45:15.680
<v Speaker 1>seem like we had somehow cut her out of what

0:45:15.960 --> 0:45:18.839
<v Speaker 1>wasn't a political show. This is how the Teals play

0:45:18.880 --> 0:45:19.760
<v Speaker 1>their game all the time.

0:45:22.280 --> 0:45:24.399
<v Speaker 10>Mate, I've got to think that the Teal votes off

0:45:24.440 --> 0:45:27.680
<v Speaker 10>a bit. I mean, it's nothing like the environment in

0:45:27.760 --> 0:45:31.640
<v Speaker 10>twenty twenty two. Nothing like that environment. All the Teal

0:45:31.680 --> 0:45:37.239
<v Speaker 10>issues of integrity, Commission, global warming, etc. Women's issues, none

0:45:37.280 --> 0:45:40.440
<v Speaker 10>of those are playing in this election. The Teals had

0:45:40.440 --> 0:45:43.959
<v Speaker 10>a couple of well publicized slip ups in the seat

0:45:44.040 --> 0:45:46.360
<v Speaker 10>of Couyong, where I have to think it's hard for

0:45:46.440 --> 0:45:49.680
<v Speaker 10>Manik Ryan to hold on now. I mean she's been

0:45:49.719 --> 0:45:52.760
<v Speaker 10>favored all the way through because Teals normally increase their vote,

0:45:53.120 --> 0:45:57.000
<v Speaker 10>but giving the disgusting, dirty, dirty campaign that the people

0:45:57.040 --> 0:46:00.839
<v Speaker 10>around her are running to her husband, I think it's

0:46:00.880 --> 0:46:02.480
<v Speaker 10>hard for her to it. I think it's hard for

0:46:02.480 --> 0:46:04.080
<v Speaker 10>people to vote for my neck Ryan. And then you

0:46:04.120 --> 0:46:09.200
<v Speaker 10>go to Bradfield where the Teal candidate in the hairdressing

0:46:09.280 --> 0:46:12.560
<v Speaker 10>Saline made that horrific remark to that nine year old girl.

0:46:12.920 --> 0:46:15.120
<v Speaker 10>You've got all these Teals that have voted with it,

0:46:15.200 --> 0:46:20.799
<v Speaker 10>assigned that unrefunding letter, you know, profoundly ignorant, calling on

0:46:20.920 --> 0:46:24.040
<v Speaker 10>the government. I've going to store funding to organization or

0:46:24.120 --> 0:46:27.279
<v Speaker 10>riddle with terrorists, blah blah blah. Yeah, all right, I

0:46:27.280 --> 0:46:28.399
<v Speaker 10>think the til votes off.

0:46:28.719 --> 0:46:30.759
<v Speaker 1>Look, I know I'm feeding the trolls, but still that's

0:46:30.800 --> 0:46:33.040
<v Speaker 1>the true story. They had a lot of time to

0:46:33.080 --> 0:46:35.000
<v Speaker 1>find us, and they couldn't find us. And I'm hardly

0:46:35.000 --> 0:46:37.359
<v Speaker 1>a needle in a haystack. All right, quick break back

0:46:37.360 --> 0:46:39.160
<v Speaker 1>with more here on Paul Murray Live, the Seats that

0:46:39.239 --> 0:46:41.160
<v Speaker 1>Matter and the specter of Trump War in a second.

0:46:45.320 --> 0:46:48.640
<v Speaker 1>All right, boys, speed round time looking at the wrong camera.

0:46:48.680 --> 0:46:50.680
<v Speaker 1>It's been a long day, a long day even't lost

0:46:50.680 --> 0:46:53.319
<v Speaker 1>my laptop at the airport. Anyway, let's get back to it.

0:46:53.480 --> 0:46:55.759
<v Speaker 1>Stephen Conroy is here. They're looking so it's easy for them.

0:46:55.760 --> 0:46:58.760
<v Speaker 1>Just looks into one camera. I get confused by seven

0:46:58.840 --> 0:47:01.399
<v Speaker 1>different ones that are here. All right, let's go through.

0:47:01.480 --> 0:47:03.759
<v Speaker 1>You'll your target seats here. Let's do a speed round

0:47:03.800 --> 0:47:06.280
<v Speaker 1>on this, Michael, for those that want to write things down.

0:47:06.680 --> 0:47:09.279
<v Speaker 1>Obviously not to seat boy seat bedding, but give me

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<v Speaker 1>an idea of what you're looking at.

0:47:13.719 --> 0:47:15.960
<v Speaker 10>So I think Peter Dunnan's in front of fifteen seats.

0:47:16.640 --> 0:47:21.080
<v Speaker 10>I've got him on seventy two, twelve of those of labor.

0:47:21.320 --> 0:47:25.400
<v Speaker 10>So i've got albow one sixty six. I think it

0:47:25.480 --> 0:47:28.040
<v Speaker 10>doesn't wins three in West Australia, one in South Australia,

0:47:28.080 --> 0:47:31.400
<v Speaker 10>one of the Northern Territory, one in Tasmania, four in

0:47:31.680 --> 0:47:35.439
<v Speaker 10>New South Wales, at least three in Victoria and two

0:47:35.480 --> 0:47:39.480
<v Speaker 10>in Queensland. Victoria. I'm saying three, but I'm actually thinking

0:47:39.520 --> 0:47:40.680
<v Speaker 10>it's quite a few more than that.

0:47:40.760 --> 0:47:44.440
<v Speaker 12>But I You've been wrong so many times.

0:47:46.400 --> 0:47:49.480
<v Speaker 10>I was wrong. I was wrong when Henry the eighth

0:47:49.560 --> 0:47:51.800
<v Speaker 10>was King of England. The last time.

0:47:51.920 --> 0:47:53.359
<v Speaker 1>All right, Steve and I got one minute.

0:47:53.719 --> 0:47:55.719
<v Speaker 10>You say we're going to win six in Victoria, all right.

0:47:55.680 --> 0:47:59.480
<v Speaker 1>Give me yours, mattos see you write this stuff down, yep.

0:48:00.280 --> 0:48:04.239
<v Speaker 12>So in New South Wales you know these are possible,

0:48:04.480 --> 0:48:08.400
<v Speaker 12>not guarantee, but possible. Labour losses could be Gilmore, Robinson, Patterson.

0:48:08.560 --> 0:48:11.959
<v Speaker 12>Benelong's been redistributed by a tiny margin to a lib,

0:48:12.200 --> 0:48:15.320
<v Speaker 12>so it technically falls into a loss. You've got Lyn Jarry,

0:48:15.320 --> 0:48:21.520
<v Speaker 12>which Michael mentioned in West Australia, Tangny and Bullwinkle Tasmania Lions.

0:48:22.640 --> 0:48:25.840
<v Speaker 12>Then in Victoria and I don't think it will be

0:48:26.120 --> 0:48:29.640
<v Speaker 12>anything like this, but you can have McNamara, chisholm Aston

0:48:29.719 --> 0:48:32.440
<v Speaker 12>mcure and Wills, Bruce Dunkley, Holt Hawk kore Anga mate,

0:48:32.719 --> 0:48:35.279
<v Speaker 12>give you a long list which shows that victory by

0:48:35.360 --> 0:48:39.040
<v Speaker 12>Elbows Victoria is the state that will determine its election.

0:48:39.719 --> 0:48:44.200
<v Speaker 12>Possible Labour games sturt like Art Brisbane, Griffith Ryan and

0:48:44.280 --> 0:48:47.560
<v Speaker 12>possibly Fouler from the independence in New South Wales. So

0:48:47.840 --> 0:48:51.680
<v Speaker 12>you see Dunton's task to get it even past seventy

0:48:51.760 --> 0:48:55.160
<v Speaker 12>becomes incredibly much more difficult if Labor wins two or

0:48:55.160 --> 0:48:57.799
<v Speaker 12>three seats, because that means he's got to win four

0:48:57.880 --> 0:48:59.960
<v Speaker 12>or six seats to match the ones that we've won.

0:49:00.640 --> 0:49:04.799
<v Speaker 12>So it is a very very challenging night. I've said,

0:49:04.840 --> 0:49:08.680
<v Speaker 12>watch Tom Connell. But this is still very much in

0:49:08.719 --> 0:49:11.200
<v Speaker 12>the balance. There's a lot to play out in these

0:49:11.239 --> 0:49:11.880
<v Speaker 12>four weeks.

0:49:12.160 --> 0:49:14.680
<v Speaker 1>All right, lads, thank you very much. The Jason Woods stuff,

0:49:14.680 --> 0:49:17.360
<v Speaker 1>I point you to what Andrew Bolt said tonight, disgraceful

0:49:17.360 --> 0:49:19.279
<v Speaker 1>stuff that happened with him and everyone else is going

0:49:19.280 --> 0:49:20.839
<v Speaker 1>to talk about Trump for the next twenty four hours.

0:49:20.840 --> 0:49:23.440
<v Speaker 1>But I've told you Elbow's desperate for those tariffs because

0:49:23.680 --> 0:49:25.760
<v Speaker 1>he thinks that wins him in the election. Lord wait, watching

0:49:25.800 --> 0:49:28.319
<v Speaker 1>Seed together more than a sec here on Sky News

0:49:28.360 --> 0:49:28.960
<v Speaker 1>with the late to back