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Speaker 1: The local share market has its worst day in four years.

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi raises the national terrorism threat level

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Speaker 1: to probable, and hybrid car sales in Australia surge as

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Speaker 1: EV's lose market share. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily

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Speaker 1: business news for people who make their own decisions. It

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Speaker 1: is Tuesday, the sixth of August twenty twenty four. Are

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Speaker 1: Michael Thompson and good Morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: The big story this morning, Sean. The s and PASX

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Speaker 1: two hundred tumbled three point seven percent yesterday, it's worst

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Speaker 1: one day selloff in more than four years, as rising

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Speaker 1: US recession fears hit global markets.

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Speaker 2: In the last two sessions, the market is down five

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Speaker 2: and a half percent, with yesterday's tumble matching some of

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Speaker 2: the worst sessions during COVID. About one hundred billion dollars

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Speaker 2: was wiped off the market yesterday. The banks led the way,

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Speaker 2: with comwellf Bank and Macquarie Group tumbling more than five percent,

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Speaker 2: while nationalist only bank Westpac and A and Z all

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Speaker 2: dropped more than four percent. Interest rates sensitive stocks were

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Speaker 2: sold off. Hard property giant Goodman Group fell nearly seven percent.

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Speaker 2: Tech Darling or at least one time Tech Darling WIS

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Speaker 2: Tech Global fell nearly nine percent. The selloff follows weak

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Speaker 2: economic data in the US and fears of the economy

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Speaker 2: is heading for recession. The stocks less tied to the

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Speaker 2: economic cycle healthcare, consumer staples, like the big supermarkets, they

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Speaker 2: did the best yesterday, albeit they ended lower. In fact,

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Speaker 2: only three companies finished the day in the black yesterday,

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Speaker 2: meaning one hundred and ninety seven companies in the top

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Speaker 2: two hundred went backwards. Those three were ResMed, Domino's Pizza

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Speaker 2: and gold Mine, and Northern Star. Some of the smaller

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Speaker 2: companies got hit hardest, with the share price of more

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Speaker 2: speculative companies such as pharmaceutical groups Neuran and Polynovo, Uranium

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Speaker 2: Minus Deep Yellow and Boss Energy and Buy Now Paid

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Speaker 2: Later group Zipco falling sharply. The fears about what's happening

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Speaker 2: in the US is hitting pretty much all markets. The

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Speaker 2: Japanese Benchmark Index yesterday at point was down thirteen percent. Incredible.

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Speaker 2: The fears really here at twofold one is weakness in

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Speaker 2: recent economic data in the US. This is fears that

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Speaker 2: that economy will fall into recession drag the rest of

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Speaker 2: the world with it. The second is that investors are

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Speaker 2: reassessing the big TEX stocks on Wall Street and the

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Speaker 2: short term revenue benefits of artificial intelligence, just how much

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Speaker 2: they're going to hold up. There's nervousness about that, and

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Speaker 2: so we're seeing a sell off in those Tex stocks.

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Speaker 1: It was such a massive day yesterday, Sean, But how

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Speaker 1: bad is it? Can we actually expect to see more

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Speaker 1: selling now? Is this going to continue?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know the answer to that. Let's

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Speaker 2: get some perspective on this. The ASEX two hundred is

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Speaker 2: as we open this morning, trading around the same level

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Speaker 2: as it has been for pretty much all of the

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Speaker 2: last five months. Now. In mid April, it was lower,

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Speaker 2: for most of July. Last month it was higher, but

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Speaker 2: even after the sell off in the past two sessions,

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Speaker 2: it's around where it's been for most of this year.

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Speaker 2: Tech stocks have led the falls in the last couple

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Speaker 2: of days, Yet for twenty twenty four, the tech index

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Speaker 2: on the ASX two hundred is easily the best performer.

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Speaker 2: It's up around twenty percent. That's in front of the

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Speaker 2: financials index. So the financials were sold off in the

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Speaker 2: last couple of days, but the financials index is up

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Speaker 2: more than ten percent for twenty twenty four. What I'm

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Speaker 2: trying to say is this isn't a GSC. It's not

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Speaker 2: a global financial crisis. It's not nineteen eighty seven collapse,

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Speaker 2: well not yet anyway. At the moment it's to sell off.

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Speaker 2: It's not even a correction, which means the market in

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Speaker 2: Australia is off ten percent, let alone a collapse. The

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Speaker 2: consensus view among economists is that the Australian economy is

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Speaker 2: not heading for a recession. It isn't even clear that

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Speaker 2: the US economy is heading for recession. Certainly investors are

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Speaker 2: falling out of love with the tech sector, but investors

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Speaker 2: are very, very fickle bunch. I just think it's not

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Speaker 2: time to panic, all right.

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Speaker 1: That's the share market. What about other local financial markets? Sean, Oh,

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Speaker 1: go on, you say it.

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Speaker 2: You want me to talk about bond market?

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Speaker 1: Bond markets? Yes, tell me about bonds please. I was

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Speaker 1: trying to be subtle and just kind of lead you

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Speaker 1: gently to it.

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Speaker 2: They're part of the excitement, Michael. They certainly are yields

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Speaker 2: and Australian government bonds are tumbling, So what does that mean?

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Speaker 2: Bonds are safe places to park your money? Big investors

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Speaker 2: like the superfunds are buying up bonds because they're safe.

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Speaker 2: That pushes up their prices. When the price goes up,

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Speaker 2: the return you get. When you're paying more, the return

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Speaker 2: you get or the yield goes down. That's why we

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Speaker 2: say bond neils are falling when investors are rushing into bonds.

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Speaker 2: Sounds counterintuitive, it's not anyway. Three year bond neils are

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Speaker 2: down twenty five bases points to just over three point

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Speaker 2: four percent. What that points to is that investors believe

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Speaker 2: that over the next three years the benchmark rate, which

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Speaker 2: is currently four point three five percent, will average about

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Speaker 2: three point four percent IE interest rates will fall. That's

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Speaker 2: over the three years. What they expect interest rates to

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Speaker 2: be over the three years on average one hundred basis

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Speaker 2: points below what they are today.

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Speaker 1: Sean, is now a good time to mention the Ask

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed that we have coming up today. Ask

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed is obviously our it's a bonus episode.

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Speaker 1: It comes out twice a week Tuesdays and Thursdays, and

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Speaker 1: today you're actually answering a question that is very relevant,

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Speaker 1: very pertinent, I would say, and the question has come

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Speaker 1: from Hailey and it is all about kind of markets

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Speaker 1: pricing in a certain chance of rate cuts. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: it's asking it's asking you to explain how that all works,

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Speaker 1: which I think is a fantastic question for you to answer.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so Hailey asks, how can you say there's a

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Speaker 2: twenty percent bod markets are pricing in a twenty percent

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Speaker 2: chance of a rate cut. It's a really it's actually

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Speaker 2: really challenging to explain, shall I say.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to the explanation. It comes out at

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Speaker 1: midday is when the ask Fear and Greed bonus episode.

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Speaker 1: And if you've got a question of your own that

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Speaker 1: you would like Sean to tackle, then please send it

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Speaker 1: on through via the website Fear Andgreed dot com, tod au,

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Speaker 1: or any of our social media platforms. Sean, we've talked

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Speaker 1: about bonds, What about commodities, What about cryptocurrencies?

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Speaker 2: Cryptos? That's a good one. Cryptos. Bitcoin tumbled ten percent

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Speaker 2: yesterday's Now cryptos don't do so well in uncertain times.

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Speaker 2: Hence bitcoin yesterday felt around fifty four thousand US dollars

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Speaker 2: a unit. For the last week, the token lost thirteen percent.

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Speaker 2: It's the opposite case when it comes to gold, which

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Speaker 2: investors buy in uncertain times. It's trading around twenty four

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Speaker 2: to fifty US dollars a unit now. To be honest,

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Speaker 2: it was actually higher than that, and I think get

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Speaker 2: caught in some of the selling gold, though it still

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Speaker 2: remains not far off record levels. Onto oil, a recession

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Speaker 2: of the US, which is the world's top consumer of oil,

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Speaker 2: would lower demand for Brent, and in futures training a

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Speaker 2: barrel fell to under seventy four US dollars a barrel.

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Speaker 2: That's over the weekend. That was the lowest since the

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Speaker 2: beginning of the year. But there's something also play in

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Speaker 2: oil markets. The crisis in the Middle East isn't getting

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Speaker 2: any better, and fears of further military action is working

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Speaker 2: to push oil prices higher. So there are two powerful

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Speaker 2: counter veiling forces in the oil market. Finally, the Aussie dollar, well,

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Speaker 2: it's certainly been caught up in the rush to safe assets.

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Speaker 2: It's now fetching just around sixty four US since that's

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Speaker 2: back to around the lows of late last year.

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Speaker 1: Sean, you have a terrific interview coming up after the

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Speaker 1: show today, a very very timely interview. You're speaking with

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Speaker 1: Roger Montgomery, Chief Investment officer at Montgomery Investment Management.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I start by saying, Roger, what the hell is

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Speaker 2: going on out there? We discuss what's gone on in

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Speaker 2: the last two sessions and why it's going on, and

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Speaker 2: Roger's always very plain spoken. He has he has one

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Speaker 2: prime reason for it, which is kind of interesting that

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Speaker 2: he's very focused on what's going on in tech stocks

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Speaker 2: in the US, and that's kind of what we talk about.

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Speaker 2: And then I say, so, what's gonna happen in the

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Speaker 2: next few days? And there's this like moment of silence,

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Speaker 2: and Rodger's like, well, I really wish I knew. But

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Speaker 2: then he gives me a very good to see there. Well,

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Speaker 2: then he explains what he thinks is going to happen.

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Speaker 1: It is a great chat. It is well worth a listen.

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Speaker 1: It is coming up after the show. Sean, We've still

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Speaker 1: got plenty to get through. It has been a massive

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours, so we'll be back in a moment

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Speaker 1: with the rest of the day's business news. Sean Azio,

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Speaker 1: the country's top spy agency, has raised the national terrorism

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Speaker 1: threat level too probable for the first time since twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two.

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Speaker 2: The growth of radical political and religious ideologies and eight

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Speaker 2: recent alleged terrorist incidents in Australia triggered the shift, though

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Speaker 2: there is no imminent attack expected. Previously, it was raised

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Speaker 2: to this level back in twenty fourteen, alongside the rise

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Speaker 2: of Islamic state. Prime Minister Anthony Albernezi yesterday said there'd

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Speaker 2: been a global rise in motivated violence and extremists, and

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Speaker 2: governments around the world are concerned about youth radicalization, online

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Speaker 2: radicalization and the rise of new mixed ideologies. AZO chief

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Speaker 2: Mike Burgess said australia security environment has become more volatile

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Speaker 2: and unpredictable, and people are being radicalized more quickly and

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Speaker 2: are more willing to use violence to advance their cause.

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Speaker 1: Shaw on the Reserve Bank Board meets today and while

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Speaker 1: pretty much everyone thinks there'll be no shift in interest rates,

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Speaker 1: there'll be an awful lot of attention on what the

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Speaker 1: board has to say about inflation and really about how

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Speaker 1: well the economy is traveling.

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Speaker 2: The moves in financial markets in recent days, along with

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Speaker 2: last week slightly lower than expected underlying flation figures here

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Speaker 2: in Australia certainly cold any thought of a rate rise.

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Speaker 2: At the meeting. In all likelihood, the Bank will say

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Speaker 2: that the next move in interest rates could be either way,

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Speaker 2: will be data dependent with her that affair bit. But

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if Governor Michelle Bullock sounds just

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Speaker 2: a little bit more open to a rate cut in

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Speaker 2: her press conference after the board meeting.

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Speaker 1: But there's no chance of a rate cut actually happening today.

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Speaker 2: No no, Having said that, ros Skins has been writing

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Speaker 2: about economics for the Age in the Sydney Morning Herald

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Speaker 2: for more than forty years. There's a period when people

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Speaker 2: read Ross just to get an insight into what was

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Speaker 2: about to happen at a Reserve being board meeting. He

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Speaker 2: had a remarkable record of getting it right. Yesterday he

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Speaker 2: wrote a piece based on an Australian Council of Social

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Speaker 2: Services briefing note that said if the Central Bank is

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Speaker 2: serious about maintaining full employment, it needs to start cutting

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Speaker 2: official interest rates asap. He didn't say they were going

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Speaker 2: to just infer that they should just worth noting.

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Speaker 1: Oh watch this space. Oh that's quite it's quite tantalizing,

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Speaker 1: isn't it usual?

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Speaker 2: And I don't think they'll cut raids and no one

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Speaker 2: thinks again cut rates. But Roskins has this phenomenal record.

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Speaker 2: He's not even saying that the game's cut rates. He's

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Speaker 2: just saying they probably should cut rates.

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Speaker 1: Oh wow. Anyway, we will have all of that news

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Speaker 1: this afternoon in the Afternoon Report, and then a full

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Speaker 1: report and an interview tomorrow morning on the on the

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Speaker 1: episode Daily episode show on Woodside Energy's thirty billion dollar

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Speaker 1: Browse development north of Broom is at risk after the

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Speaker 1: Western Australian Environmental Protection Agency rejected the project.

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Speaker 2: The decision is preliminary and Woodside will continue to negotiate

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Speaker 2: for approval. Woodside's developing brows with BP Petro China and

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Speaker 2: Japan's Mitsui and Mitsubishi, and production had been expected to

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Speaker 2: start in twenty twenty six. The EPA is concerned about

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Speaker 2: threats to pigmy, blue whales and green turtle nesting sites,

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Speaker 2: and also the risks of oil spills near the Scott Reef.

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Speaker 2: According to a report on WA Today, most of the

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Speaker 2: considerable environmental activism against the Browse project has so far

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Speaker 2: focused on the significant carbon missions expected, but that's not

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Speaker 2: what the EPA came out about. It isn't just a

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Speaker 2: potential blow for Woodside, but also for the federal government,

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Speaker 2: which is trying to you're up gas supplies for the

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Speaker 2: next decade or so. Western Australian Premier Roger Cook came

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Speaker 2: out yesterday. He said he expects Woodside in the State

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Speaker 2: EPA to work together on the matter. So it's not

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Speaker 2: a done deal yet. It certainly hasn't. You can't say

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Speaker 2: it's not going to be able to go ahead, but

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Speaker 2: there's more work to be done.

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Speaker 1: The pygmy blue whale.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I thought I was going to get through this

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Speaker 2: without without being picked up. Tell me about the pigmy

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Speaker 2: blue whale.

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Speaker 1: Did you know that the pygmy blue whale still reaches

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Speaker 1: lengths of up to twenty four meters So it feels

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Speaker 1: like a bit of a misnowh Yes, when you think

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Speaker 1: of a pygmy blue whale, don't you think of like

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Speaker 1: a little foot long whale?

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Speaker 2: Just kind of yeah, you would think so something getting

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Speaker 2: the fish tank.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, Whereas this is twenty four meters long.

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Speaker 2: It's how big is the traditional blue whale? Do we

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Speaker 2: know that?

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Speaker 1: Yes, the traditional blue whale can reach a maximum length

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Speaker 1: of just a touch under thirty meters.

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Speaker 2: That's pretty impressive.

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Speaker 1: So the pygmy is not that much shorter than the

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Speaker 1: full size.

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Speaker 2: The no, no, no, I've been googling way we've been

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Speaker 2: talking the blue whale one hundred up to one hundred

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Speaker 2: and ninety nine tons.

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Speaker 1: That's a hefty whale. Oh sure. It's the perfect opportunity

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Speaker 1: to mention my favorite video of all times. Do you

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Speaker 1: remember that?

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Speaker 2: I do remember because I've seen it with you so

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Speaker 2: many times.

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Speaker 1: I send it out every kind of anniversary of this happening.

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Speaker 1: And it's about kind of fifty years ago forty fifty

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Speaker 1: years ago in the US, where a whale carcass washed

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Speaker 1: up on a beach and they weren't quite sure what

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Speaker 1: to do with it, kind of toll back out to

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Speaker 1: sea or bury it. It was too big, so they decided

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Speaker 1: to blow it up, of course, but they got the

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Speaker 1: amount of they were using kind of TNT or something

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Speaker 1: to do it, and they got it wrong the amount

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Speaker 1: they needed and used like ten times the amount whale

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Speaker 1: everywhere the camera for a whole lot. Anyway, maybe maybe

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Speaker 1: we should include that video in the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: weekly newsletter when it goes.

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Speaker 2: Down to modern excellent idea.

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Speaker 1: It's got nothing to do with business news, but we

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Speaker 1: will include it head along to Fearangreed dot com dot

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Speaker 1: Au and sign up for the newsletter. It comes out

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Speaker 1: every Wednesday morning, and this week's we'll feature the whale

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Speaker 1: video anyway. Sean on with the Business News. Sales of

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Speaker 1: hybrid vehicles last month were nearly ninety percent higher than

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Speaker 1: a year earlier, where sales of full battery evs are

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Speaker 1: losing market share.

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Speaker 2: While hybrid vehicles are up eighty eight point four percent.

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Speaker 2: Plug in hybrids jump one twenty nine percent compared to

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Speaker 2: a year earlier. The Toyota Rap four is now the

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Speaker 2: number one selling vehicle in Australia and most of the

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Speaker 2: units all most of the REP four units are hybrids.

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Speaker 2: The Raft four is now taken over from the two

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Speaker 2: big selling utes, Ford Ranger and Toyota Highlights. They have

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Speaker 2: always been the top selling vehicles in Australia, suddenly Rap

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Speaker 2: fourths that top spot. The data suggests that Tesla sales

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Speaker 2: so far in twenty twenty four is sharply lower than

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Speaker 2: last year. Now, I say suggest because Tesla and Polestar,

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Speaker 2: the other EV maker, had a dispute with the Federal

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Speaker 2: Chamber of Automotive Industries. They now report sales via the

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Speaker 2: Electric Vehicle Council, and then it's extrapolated for these figures.

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Speaker 2: Excluding Tesla and Pollstar, the total number of units sold

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Speaker 2: last year was just under ninety nine thousand, six hundred.

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Speaker 1: Ramsey Healthcare, the nation's largest operator of private hospitals, yesterday

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Speaker 1: warned of a drop in profit for the last financial

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Speaker 1: year due to underperforming European and UK businesses.

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Speaker 2: Some of the poorer performance reflected one off items and impairments,

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Speaker 2: but the group said the underlying result had been driven

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Speaker 2: by improving activity trends and labor productivity. Ramsey reports its

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Speaker 2: official half year earnings on thirtieth of August. The share

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Speaker 2: price entered down zero point three percent yesterday, which, given

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Speaker 2: what everyone else did, was a pretty good result.

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Speaker 1: Seems like it now. TPG Telecom is once again in

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Speaker 1: talk with Vocus over its fiber network, nine months after

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Speaker 1: a proposal to sell the network for six point three

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Speaker 1: billion dollars fell over.

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Speaker 2: In a statement, TPG said shareholders should be aware that

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Speaker 2: the twenty twenty three discussions didn't lead to a transaction,

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Speaker 2: which I think we knew and there's no certainty one

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Speaker 2: will eventuate from current discussions. Vocus has around twenty seven

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Speaker 2: thousand kilometers of fiber network, mostly in metropolitan areas.

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Speaker 1: Right turning to international news now in Israel is braced

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Speaker 1: for a possible attack from Iran and regional militias in

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Speaker 1: retaliation for assassinations of Hesbalah and Hermas officials, as the

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Speaker 1: US sent defensive reinforcements while pressing for a Gaza ceasefire deal.

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the start of a

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Speaker 2: cabinet meeting that Israel is in a multi front war

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Speaker 2: against Iran's Axis of Evil. He said that Israel striking

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Speaker 2: every one of its arms with great force, and he

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Speaker 2: went on to say we are prepared for any scenario,

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Speaker 2: both offensively and defensively. The US, which is moving a

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Speaker 2: fighter jets squadron to the region and keeping an aircraft

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Speaker 2: carrier nearby to help Israel, is also pressing mister Netanyahu

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Speaker 2: to redouble negotiations for a cease foreign Gaza to prevent

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Speaker 2: the nearly ten month long war from escalating. According to Bloomberg,

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Speaker 2: the group of seven foreign ministers expressed concerns about the

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Speaker 2: risk of a wider regional crisis during a video call

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Speaker 2: over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: US Vice President Karmala Harris is set to announce her

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Speaker 1: running mate for the November presidential poll over the next

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours, but the representative from a battleground state

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Speaker 1: likely to get the nod.

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Speaker 2: Miss Harris met with at least three possible running mates,

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Speaker 2: Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Minnesota

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Speaker 2: Governor Tim Walls. According to media reports, The meetings were

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Speaker 2: part of Harris's final stretch before selecting who will join

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Speaker 2: her on that twenty twenty four presidential ticket. Harris's entrance

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Speaker 2: to the race has overhauled the whole dynamics of the

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Speaker 2: presidential campaign. She's now raised more than three hundred million dollars.

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Speaker 2: She's also cut into the lead the former president Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump held national polls. Her vice presidential pick is critical

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Speaker 2: because it certainly could determine whether the momentum continues to

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Speaker 2: propel her or simmers as election day approaches, particularly in

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Speaker 2: those batterground states.

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Speaker 1: All right, up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview,

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Speaker 1: A very important one must listen today. Roger Montgomery, chief

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Speaker 1: investment officer at Montgomery Investment Management.

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Speaker 2: Roger knows much more than I do about equity markets

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Speaker 2: and what's going on, and that's all the discussions about

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Speaker 2: what the hell is going on out there at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, it is up next in the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au, which is also where you sign up for

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Speaker 1: the free weekly newsletter featuring the whale video.

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Speaker 2: Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, the sixth of August twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. Are Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: And that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.