WEBVTT - #222 Richard de Crespigny: The Pilot Who Saved 440 Qantas Passengers 0:00:00.560 --> 0:00:02.560 Richard de Krepney, Straight Talk mate. 0:00:02.759 --> 0:00:03.960 Thanks Mark, great to be here. 0:00:04.080 --> 0:00:06.040 Now. We did something and many many years ago. I 0:00:06.040 --> 0:00:08.400 think it was the Mike Boris Show, but this is 0:00:08.400 --> 0:00:11.120 straight Talk. It's a different show. And it's actually timely 0:00:11.160 --> 0:00:13.360 that you're in here. I mean, you've got for a 0:00:13.440 --> 0:00:15.480 couple of reasons, and we want to talk again about 0:00:15.520 --> 0:00:17.600 your book that you released man years ago. I want 0:00:17.640 --> 0:00:20.400 to talk to you about the sorts of presentations you 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:23.440 make around leadership and teamwork, et cetera, because I think 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:25.520 it's really important for people to know about that stuff 0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:28.800 right at the moment, especially, But also, and I know 0:00:28.840 --> 0:00:30.880 you've got a new podcast called fly and we want 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:33.080 to talk about we were talking earlier, but you know, 0:00:33.320 --> 0:00:34.960 podcasts are tough things to do, so we'll. 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:36.200 Talk about they're very tough. 0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:39.120 We'll talk about fly back. But I just want to 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:45.279 talk to you about aeroplanes and or commercial aeroplanes, and 0:00:45.560 --> 0:00:48.080 wouldn't mind touching on private aircraft as well, because I've 0:00:48.080 --> 0:00:50.600 got a mate who's got private aircraft which he least 0:00:50.680 --> 0:00:54.280 out to anyone who wants to use it. So and 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:58.160 I think Australians travel more now than we ever have 0:00:58.240 --> 0:00:58.760 in the past. 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:02.920 I have going to stats to prove mediations growing fifteen percent. 0:01:03.760 --> 0:01:05.800 Yeah, in terms of number of aeroplanes. 0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:10.320 Nineteen seventies, aeroplanes can't keep up passengers travel, so everything 0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:15.000 is congested airports, airspace, not enough and not enough aircraft. 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:16.679 Some of the new engines have been pushed so hard 0:01:16.720 --> 0:01:18.880 they're not working. So some of the altar tech is 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:20.040 actually better than they need. 0:01:20.240 --> 0:01:20.520 Really. 0:01:20.640 --> 0:01:22.760 Yeah, Yeah, the airline is actually saying, can we please 0:01:22.800 --> 0:01:25.800 go back to the previous generation of engines because the 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:28.800 new generation engines. You see, everyone's trying to outdo the 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:31.200 next manufacture of engines. They say, I'm going to promise 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:34.120 five percent on the last engine. They're pushing these engines 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:37.640 to the max, and now they're going too far. Gearboxes, 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:41.679 turbine blades are overheating, these sort of things are happening 0:01:41.880 --> 0:01:44.720 and a lot of engines are being grounded. The aircraft 0:01:44.800 --> 0:01:48.400 is still safe because you have recording systems that show 0:01:48.560 --> 0:01:51.360 a degradation over time, so they can predict that the 0:01:51.400 --> 0:01:54.200 engine's going to have a problem enough one hundred hours, 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:57.639 one thousand hours, so they take them offline before they failed. 0:01:57.840 --> 0:01:59.480 Hopefully, Yeah, they do. 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:02.840 Only they do, and they repair them. But a lot 0:02:02.840 --> 0:02:06.040 of engines are grounded around the world, causing troubles for 0:02:06.680 --> 0:02:11.639 the new as to twenty for seven eight sevens for 0:02:11.760 --> 0:02:15.640 the for the ABU seventh, all aircraft having problems getting 0:02:15.720 --> 0:02:18.960 enough engines from the manufacturers. The old engines are working 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:23.400 reliably long time, the new engines are having trouble bedding 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:24.160 in so. 0:02:24.360 --> 0:02:27.440 Now, and I will declare front, I am a nervous traveler, 0:02:27.760 --> 0:02:31.680 so whether it's commercial, private, And if I had a choice, 0:02:31.680 --> 0:02:33.440 i'd actually if I had to go to say coins 0:02:33.480 --> 0:02:35.200 and I'd rather if I had time, would rather drive. 0:02:36.240 --> 0:02:39.440 And I don't mind the drive actually, but as opposed 0:02:39.480 --> 0:02:43.200 to taking the risk for inconvenience. For convenience, I should say, 0:02:43.760 --> 0:02:47.359 which is traveling by plane. And I'm someone who travels 0:02:47.560 --> 0:02:52.720 literally every week somewhere every week, sometimes twice. So just this, 0:02:53.400 --> 0:02:55.399 I do want to talk to you. But the first 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:57.200 thing I want to cover off is Q thirty two is. 0:02:58.040 --> 0:02:59.800 Thirty that's QF thirty two. That's right. 0:02:59.840 --> 0:03:02.800 That that was about fifteen years ago, right, and that 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:06.080 was your flight in Singapore changed my life. Let's just 0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:11.400 take me through what happened again, take an audience through 0:03:11.480 --> 0:03:12.600 what happened on q F thirty two. 0:03:12.720 --> 0:03:15.520 Okay, it was a routine flight from Singapore to Sydney, 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:18.240 the fourth November two thousand and ten. So we're coming 0:03:18.320 --> 0:03:22.639 up for fifteen years and we're we're four minutes after 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:24.480 tay coof engine number two exploded. 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:26.239 Got four engines, four. 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:29.400 Engines on this A three eighty. The biggest, most wonderful 0:03:29.400 --> 0:03:33.239 aircraft in the sky is that you say that absolutely 0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:36.720 still still the most remarkable aircraft. Three eighty and the 0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:39.400 A three eighty the quietest, smoothest. 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:41.320 I'm going to ride that down for myself because I'm 0:03:41.320 --> 0:03:42.160 always on three eighty. 0:03:42.200 --> 0:03:45.760 People will divert one thousand miles to start their journey 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:47.560 just to pick up an A three eighty. It is 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:51.960 so quiet compared to the say seven three seven, it's 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:56.200 about four times one quarter of the noise, okay, it is. 0:03:56.400 --> 0:03:59.480 It is. So it was so quiet on that A 0:03:59.560 --> 0:04:02.080 three eighty that day that when engine number two explode 0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:04.960 to four minutes after takeoff, one passenger didn't even know 0:04:05.000 --> 0:04:08.840 we're in the air. He thought we'd hit a pothole 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:13.880 on the runway. So it's really quiet, powerful, spacious, you 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:18.240 don't get chastrophobic. It's not too big in terms of 0:04:18.320 --> 0:04:21.479 open spaces, so the passengers love it. If you have 0:04:21.520 --> 0:04:23.760 a fear of flying, you're going to love the three 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:27.120 eighty because it calms your nerves. If you get onto 0:04:27.120 --> 0:04:29.680 a seven three seven that has up to ninety five 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:35.800 decibels of noise, then that would really make you nervous, 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:38.840 even for a takeoff, and it's about eighty five decibels 0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:40.840 and the cruise which is safe for no more than 0:04:40.880 --> 0:04:43.280 eight hours in the workplace. I mean, the seven three 0:04:43.360 --> 0:04:46.080 seven is a great aeroplane, but a first flew before 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:49.840 Neil Armstrong landed on the moon. You notice first for 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:53.600 the in nineteen sixty seven, Wow, and the derived versions 0:04:53.640 --> 0:04:57.400 from that, but that core technology. Imagine taking a nineteen 0:04:57.520 --> 0:05:01.440 sixties Ford Mustang and saying what. 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:03.880 A great car actually was a nine sixty six Ford 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:05.080 must say? Was it bloody? Your car? 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:08.000 Great car? Let's keep it, and now let's convert it. 0:05:08.160 --> 0:05:11.320 Just do a few moods over the last forty and 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:13.520 let's turn it into an F one racing car. 0:05:14.160 --> 0:05:16.799 Right? Okay? Could you would you? 0:05:16.400 --> 0:05:19.600 No? That's what you're right? So the seven three seven 0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:23.240 needs a total rebuild, and there's a lesson. A concept 0:05:23.320 --> 0:05:27.800 in management called constructive destruction, You get rid of things 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:31.560 to use the new tech to build something newer. You 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:34.599 don't sit on your laurels. You have to keep changing 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:36.400 and adapting. That's manufacturing. 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:39.000 What was the Southwest one of the thi's at Southwest 0:05:39.200 --> 0:05:41.320 or Southwest seven. 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:44.000 They didn't want constructive destruction. They had six hundred and 0:05:44.000 --> 0:05:45.920 fifty seven three seven I remember it. So they made 0:05:45.960 --> 0:05:48.479 a deal with Boeing that that if we don't want 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:51.000 to have to do a differences course for all our pilots, 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:54.119 so we want the same pilots to get one course 0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:57.200 of seven three seven for all those versions since nineteen 0:05:57.279 --> 0:06:01.640 sixty seven, and we don't want to have a difference's course. 0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:05.560 That gave pressure for Boeing to not change the cockpit. 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:08.440 It meant they really couldn't bring in fly By wy 0:06:08.560 --> 0:06:11.479 benefits because if they did, they have to change the 0:06:11.480 --> 0:06:14.360 cockpit there'd be a difference's course. So there was actually 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:17.400 a lot of pressure by Southwest Airlines to have Boeing 0:06:17.480 --> 0:06:21.680 do what they did, which was in retrospect terrible, but 0:06:21.760 --> 0:06:24.719 in any business it's not right. You should you should 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:26.279 get rid of the old tech and bring in a 0:06:26.320 --> 0:06:29.159 new airbus. Brought in fly By Wy in nineteen eighty. 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:31.760 Four fly By Wy fly by Why let. 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:35.320 Mean in your car, you have you accelerator pedal, you 0:06:35.440 --> 0:06:40.840 push it down and linkages, bell, cranks and cables move 0:06:41.760 --> 0:06:44.680 from that accelerator pedal go to the carburettor to let 0:06:44.720 --> 0:06:48.960 more feel into the car. It's fine, but actually when 0:06:49.000 --> 0:06:52.200 they built the concord, the fuselage stretches one foot in 0:06:52.240 --> 0:06:55.479 the crewise because the aircraft gets so hot, so linkages 0:06:55.520 --> 0:06:59.360 and cables can't stretch one one foot. So they when 0:06:59.360 --> 0:07:01.440 they built the car court they said, we can't use 0:07:01.480 --> 0:07:04.320 these old systems. So they've built a digital action though 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:06.960 it was an analog fly by Wy. So you have 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:10.360 a sensor on the accelerator pedal, the sensor signal that 0:07:10.440 --> 0:07:14.760 goes to a distant actuator that will move to change 0:07:14.800 --> 0:07:15.280 the field. Thing. 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:17.040 Actually this is being opens and closes. 0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:20.360 It opens and closes valve like a valve, a valve. 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:24.000 It's the thing that a light. So the concept is 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:26.600 that that you are now separated. There is no direct 0:07:26.600 --> 0:07:31.160 connection other than electrical from the app from what you're 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:33.960 pressing to what happens at the far end. That gives 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:37.680 you amazing ability to interfere or intercept that signal a 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:41.360 value to it or to modify it. So, in terms 0:07:41.360 --> 0:07:45.360 of aircraft, what the pilots do with the thrust levers 0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:49.800 and the side stick, they are inputs into computers that 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:52.360 massage them. If the computers think you're not doing the 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:55.560 right thing, they might even override it. The computers in 0:07:55.600 --> 0:07:58.920 an F sixteen F twenty two, F thirty five. If 0:07:58.920 --> 0:08:02.600 the pilots don't evo the ground, the compute and these 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:04.600 fighter aircraft are meant to be close to the ground. 0:08:04.680 --> 0:08:07.000 But if the computer thinks they're going to hit the ground, 0:08:07.640 --> 0:08:10.840 the computer interferes, takes over and pulls them away from 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:16.000 the ground. It's an override. Interesting, maybe the pilots in 0:08:16.080 --> 0:08:18.560 Ukraine turned that overright off when they started flying. If 0:08:18.680 --> 0:08:19.560 sixteens in. 0:08:19.680 --> 0:08:21.600 Ukraine, you can't turn that right off. 0:08:21.640 --> 0:08:24.520 A lot of F sixteens were crashing from pilots, and 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:27.840 particularly in F sixteens, they pull so much g that 0:08:27.840 --> 0:08:30.400 the blood wouldn't get to the head. The blackout and 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:33.400 if they're close to the ground, they die. So when 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:38.880 they put in their software to predict whether they'd hit 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:41.040 the ground and to stop them hitting the ground, or 0:08:41.080 --> 0:08:44.679 to get to a safe place, all the deaths from 0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:49.680 accidental flying into terrain virtually stopped, and that that is 0:08:49.720 --> 0:08:53.080 now accepted software through all the fighters in America. The 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:56.920 pilots agree that that intervention is actually very good. 0:08:57.080 --> 0:09:01.880 Is there something similar in the commercial world, like an override? 0:09:01.960 --> 0:09:03.839 Not yet? Why not? 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:07.000 Not yet? Well, even in the Air Force when they 0:09:07.040 --> 0:09:09.320 first tried to introduce this for the fighters in the 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:12.760 American Air Force in two thousand and five, the pilot said, no, 0:09:12.880 --> 0:09:15.040 we're not going to have a computer takeover from us. 0:09:15.080 --> 0:09:17.800 We don't trust it. And that's what a lot of 0:09:17.800 --> 0:09:21.480 people fear about, let's say AI or computers or fly 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:24.200 by wy They think they don't want to seed control 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:28.240 to a computer. And the Air Force sat back for 0:09:28.240 --> 0:09:30.520 about ten years and said, okay, let's see if you 0:09:30.559 --> 0:09:33.640 can stop killing yourself in these f sixteens. They didn't, 0:09:33.920 --> 0:09:36.080 So the Air Force said, okay, we're forcing it on you. 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:36.360 Now. 0:09:36.559 --> 0:09:38.720 You will have it. We'll give you feedback as to 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:42.240 how anxious this software is it. If it's so, you'll 0:09:42.280 --> 0:09:47.079 know if it's about to interrupt. So you've got feedback. 0:09:47.280 --> 0:09:50.560 You're getting facts about what the thing's thinking. And then 0:09:51.000 --> 0:09:55.200 if you still ignore those warnings, it will eventually take over, 0:09:55.840 --> 0:09:59.080 and by twenty fifteen the policy said yes, please, let's 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:01.400 have it, and now we'll the aircraft have it. So 0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:05.719 again we're talking about fly by wire. The pilots might 0:10:05.720 --> 0:10:08.600 be requesting something the computers interrupt to get you to 0:10:08.640 --> 0:10:12.400 a safe place because maybe you're doing something reckless, or 0:10:12.440 --> 0:10:15.720 maybe you're unconscious and you're about to die. It took 0:10:15.800 --> 0:10:19.600 long time to build up that trust, and in some 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:22.800 parts of the airbus software they the aircraft will not 0:10:22.920 --> 0:10:26.360 let you stall the aircraft or stalling is when you 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:29.440 get to such a high angle that the air coming 0:10:29.520 --> 0:10:32.480 of the wing breaks down and you lose lift. So 0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:36.600 the airbus will protect you from high speed or high 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:39.960 angle of attack. None of the aircraft at the moment 0:10:40.040 --> 0:10:43.199 will interfere and stop you hitting the ground, including the 0:10:43.240 --> 0:10:47.839 A three eighty, any danisial aircraft, any commercial aircraft. Well, 0:10:47.840 --> 0:10:49.920 the problem is, you see, and it has gone wrong 0:10:50.040 --> 0:10:52.360 in one of the A three twenties early on, where 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:56.200 the software wouldn't reconfigure and the aircraft the soft they 0:10:56.200 --> 0:10:59.120 wouldn't let the pilot land to actually the land the 0:10:59.120 --> 0:11:02.080 A three twenty to shut down an engine. Now that 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:04.760 makes no sense other than when you shut down the engine, 0:11:04.800 --> 0:11:08.319 you shut off these protections so he could land. I'm 0:11:08.320 --> 0:11:11.880 getting a little bit complicated here, but I'm saying that 0:11:12.360 --> 0:11:17.200 overall all this software works ninety nine point nine nine 0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:21.080 percent of the time perfectly. Sometimes there's glitches. But you know, 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:25.160 there are five billion people flying every year around the world, 0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:26.840 forty million. 0:11:26.600 --> 0:11:30.480 Fils, so that six sticks standard deviations from the mean, 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:32.760 which is ninety nine point nine percent of the time. 0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:37.559 If that's applied one in every million, that means I 0:11:37.600 --> 0:11:40.800 may say six billion, how many people are flying each. 0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:42.760 I reckon, we might be I reckon, we might be 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:45.000 at six seven eighty six. Well that's sort of because 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:48.840 we're getting you're only having two or three aircraft a 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:53.920 year crashing. That's about five hundred people. Tragic absolutely for 0:11:54.000 --> 0:11:57.080 the people killed. But for five hundred people that are 0:11:57.160 --> 0:12:00.480 killed out of five billion that fly could work at 0:12:00.480 --> 0:12:02.120 the sigma I just can't do it in my head. 0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:06.920 Yeah, so that's well, no, that's it's not even one 0:12:06.920 --> 0:12:09.440 in a million. So yeah, go on, that's good. Then 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:12.960 it's good. It's beyond what is General Electric, which is 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:16.160 one of the engine makers. It's beyond their so called 0:12:16.160 --> 0:12:20.360 six sigma test. All right, so in beyond him being better, 0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:22.559 let's imagine you have a fear of flying, and twenty 0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:25.520 percent of the people do. What they need to know 0:12:25.720 --> 0:12:28.560 is facts, because fear is based on not knowing what's 0:12:29.679 --> 0:12:32.400 not knowing who's in charge. You can't forecast the future, 0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:34.320 you can't see at the front of the airplane. You 0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:37.720 don't know who's in charge. Is AI flying aircraft? There's 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:40.000 no one to talk to, and there's no one to 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:42.840 communicate with. I mean we're used to that in life. 0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:46.600 If things go wrong with businesses. Now does a website 0:12:46.600 --> 0:12:49.000 for a business even post the telephone number? Yeah? 0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:53.679 Right, So a lot of people have different anxiety because 0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:57.160 there's no one taking responsibility. There's no one to talk to, 0:12:57.240 --> 0:13:01.000 there's no single point of contact and all these uncertainties 0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:04.360 and maybe there are crashes and it seems unfair and 0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:09.360 you you imagine the worst if you don't know what's 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:12.520 going on. These are all the vectors for fear based 0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:16.680 on not having facts, so or lack of communication and 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:20.120 lack of communication. Absolutely, and if you just give the 0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:23.360 reason that things happen, and that's what I guess I'm 0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:27.840 trying to do the reasons, well, you will work out 0:13:27.920 --> 0:13:31.199 then you'll derive. You do the hard way you derive. 0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:33.640 We'll give them these reasons. Yes I am safe. So 0:13:34.040 --> 0:13:35.840 let's I'm going to put it really simply. We talk 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:38.880 about risk, and risk is probability of that invent times 0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:39.599 a consequence. 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:40.000 Yep. 0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:43.120 Right, Now, let's imagine the consequences the same. Let's imagine 0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:46.760 the consequences you dying, right. 0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:49.520 Well, that that has to be. That's the gravity event occurring, right. 0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:50.720 This is the worst. And now we're going to talk 0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:54.480 about risk, where death is the outcome the consequence. Now, 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:57.160 so the risk is equal to the probability because the 0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:58.600 consequences constant. 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:01.880 Frail is much Put that in a bit of different context. 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:04.920 The probability of event occurring is equal to the gravity 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:08.319 of the event occurring. No, you're not saying. 0:14:08.040 --> 0:14:11.760 That, no, no, no, The gravity is a consequence a gravity. 0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:16.360 The consequence is what is the outcome when an event happens. 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:22.600 Events can be probable and possible, and that's definite levels 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:26.680 of probability of an event happening. But the probability of 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:30.360 an asteroid coming through this room is very small. But 0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:33.720 if it does, the consequence is probably fatal for you 0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:36.240 in may, right, But the risk is still low because 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:41.280 not many asteroids come down through your studio. So we 0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:43.960 look at risk. So when you look at risk in 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:47.000 terms of mortality, there's a thing called a micro mort, 0:14:47.320 --> 0:14:49.840 and I wrote about this in the second book. So 0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:53.800 a micromort is one in a million chance of mortality, 0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:56.160 one in a million chance of dying. When you get 0:14:56.200 --> 0:14:58.560 onto a horse, you have a one in a million 0:14:58.640 --> 0:15:03.760 chance of dying from that exposure. One micromort will let 0:15:03.800 --> 0:15:07.520 you ride a motorbike about eight kilometers. It will you 0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:12.440 use about use about forty thousand micromorts. If you climb 0:15:12.480 --> 0:15:17.880 out Everest, one microwap will take you on four hundred 0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:21.120 and fifty scenic railway things. You know we have the 0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:27.200 roller coasters. They are amazingly safe. Right, So one micromorp 0:15:27.240 --> 0:15:30.040 will get as a horse ride. One micromort will take 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:34.360 you ten thousand kilometers on a commercial aircraft almost to America. 0:15:34.560 --> 0:15:38.520 Right when you walk into a hospital, the chance of 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:42.280 you being killed by an accident or an error, not 0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:45.280 because you are ill. The chance of you being killed 0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:50.880 by an accident medical system seven thousand micromorts. 0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:55.600 In other words, the risk comparison is if you want 0:15:55.640 --> 0:15:58.240 to be relaxed about these things. Just look at the 0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:01.400 risk comparison of flying relatives to go walk into a hospital. 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:03.200 If you want to be scared, be scared of going 0:16:03.200 --> 0:16:07.040 to hospital. I think everyone should have a person to 0:16:07.200 --> 0:16:10.280 be with them, to monitor them, an advocate like one 0:16:10.320 --> 0:16:13.360 of your friends. Have someone there with you because problem 0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:15.640 is in medicine is they don't ask enough questions, they 0:16:15.640 --> 0:16:17.960 don't know enough about you, and they make decisions without 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:21.800 knowing the facts. Right. So my point is that that 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:27.040 one hospital missions equivalent to about seventy thousand one hour 0:16:27.040 --> 0:16:28.040 commercial flights. 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:29.720 Wow, now are you scared. 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:31.920 I'm giving you reasons, They're giving you facts. 0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:34.920 What's happening now is I'm more scared of going to hospital, 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:36.520 but I'm still scared of getting on an aeroplane. 0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:39.840 Well, we're looking at we're looking at risk, and so yeah, 0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:43.240 we have to we have the hospital system. There are 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:46.120 great people, but it's a broken system. Yeah, I think 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:50.240 every they're truly great people in medicine, but a lot 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:54.000 of the safety measures in aviation. I'm not present in medicine. 0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:57.080 I'm an ambassador for Saint Vincent's Hospital. I'm trying to 0:16:57.120 --> 0:17:02.359 do everything i can and medicine needs help in governance 0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:03.280 and safety. 0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:07.000 So can if we go back to three eighty, the 0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:10.960 A three eighty, which is the Q thirty two flight, 0:17:12.400 --> 0:17:15.880 and you're taking off and one of the engines blows up. 0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:22.760 Let's because I think this is a confidence thing for 0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:26.680 people like me. Can I just want a couple of questions. One, 0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:29.920 is it less risky if I get on a plane 0:17:29.920 --> 0:17:33.159 with four engines? One? That seems to me to be 0:17:33.240 --> 0:17:37.679 the case. I'm asking you the question. Two, what do 0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:40.439 I need? What happens inside the cockpit there? So how 0:17:40.480 --> 0:17:43.639 many people are in there? And let's say you know 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:45.600 how many people have got to help you in the 0:17:45.640 --> 0:17:48.879 event that one of the engines doesn't as blown up 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:49.600 as corn fire? 0:17:49.680 --> 0:17:53.920 So safety, Is it more safe with four engines? 0:17:54.440 --> 0:17:54.680 Yes? 0:17:55.119 --> 0:18:00.080 Right? Because all all aircraft designed that they lose an engine. 0:18:00.200 --> 0:18:04.000 Then well that's part of the certification. You just assume 0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:06.960 that you're losing an engine at some point. If you 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:08.720 lose it too early in the takeoff, you have to 0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:11.920 stop the takeoff, but a certain before we actually get 0:18:11.920 --> 0:18:14.240 off the ground, halfway down the runway, if you lose 0:18:14.280 --> 0:18:18.760 an engine, you can stop, and if you have two engines, 0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:22.080 you keep going once you if you get beyond about 0:18:22.080 --> 0:18:25.439 halfway down the runway. This is very general. If you 0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:28.000 lose an engine, you keep going and the performance is 0:18:28.040 --> 0:18:30.280 designed for you to get safely off the ground and 0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:34.320 come back and land with one engine gone. So everything, 0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:38.600 all aviation's predicated on losing one engine. If you're in 0:18:38.640 --> 0:18:41.639 a two engine aircraft and you lose one, now you're 0:18:41.680 --> 0:18:45.000 down to one engine. Now, the engines are actually very reliable. 0:18:45.040 --> 0:18:47.560 They fail about one in every three hundred and fifty 0:18:47.600 --> 0:18:50.760 thousand engine hours, so about one in every eight pilots 0:18:50.760 --> 0:18:52.360 of a twin aircraft. We'll see an. 0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:54.800 Engine failure in the whole twin engine aircraft twin. 0:18:54.840 --> 0:18:57.880 One in four pilots of a quad aeroplane, because if 0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:01.119 you have four engines, you've got twice. It's the probability 0:19:01.160 --> 0:19:05.160 of having an engine failure as a twin pilot because 0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:07.560 you've got four engines. The thing is that losing one 0:19:07.600 --> 0:19:12.560 engine in a quad nothing is nothing you really it's trivial. 0:19:13.080 --> 0:19:16.280 Losing in a twin of a lot more serious. But 0:19:16.400 --> 0:19:19.480 aviation these days, the problem in aircraft tend to occur 0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:24.560 with passengers. They get sick, they get on with drugs, alcohol, stress, 0:19:25.440 --> 0:19:28.720 the business class passengers generally cause more commotion and trouble 0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:33.920 than the economy passengers. They come on more stressed. Maybe 0:19:33.960 --> 0:19:38.240 there's a problem with wars. Politics have to divert around airspace. 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:41.840 Maybe there's a problem with the weather. I'm just saying 0:19:41.880 --> 0:19:45.000 that engine failures that used to be common on aircraft 0:19:45.160 --> 0:19:47.280 and not common anymore. And as I said, one in 0:19:47.359 --> 0:19:50.280 eight twin pilots will ever see an engine failure in 0:19:50.280 --> 0:19:50.919 the whole career. 0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:56.400 And your qre thoo two, what was what? You had 0:19:56.400 --> 0:19:59.119 one engine down out of four engines? Yes, what happened? 0:19:59.359 --> 0:19:59.960 What did it like? 0:20:00.320 --> 0:20:03.560 So? A little oil pipe there was to take oil 0:20:03.640 --> 0:20:07.680 to a bearing mount inside the most inner part of 0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:11.720 the engine. That pipe had been manufactured incorrectly. It cracked 0:20:11.840 --> 0:20:14.879 because of vibration. Oil went into a part of the 0:20:14.880 --> 0:20:17.320 engine that should not have had any oil into it, 0:20:17.520 --> 0:20:20.840 sitting about eight hundred degrees celsius. That the oil catches fire, 0:20:21.280 --> 0:20:26.000 heats the drive shaft, makes it soft, and the turbine 0:20:26.040 --> 0:20:29.359 that has been taking fifty thousand horsepower out of the 0:20:29.400 --> 0:20:33.800 air and now rips itself off that shaft because the 0:20:33.840 --> 0:20:38.000 metal's weak. The turbine weighs one hundred and sixty kilograms 0:20:38.200 --> 0:20:43.120 high tensile steel. Physics say breaks into three pieces, and 0:20:43.680 --> 0:20:47.840 ours broken too. A few more three pieces hit the aircraft. 0:20:47.920 --> 0:20:52.480 In our case, that created shrapnel. About four hundred impacts 0:20:52.480 --> 0:20:54.840 on the airplane from all the shrapnel, two hundred against 0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:59.400 the fuselage. There were holes in There were holes inside 0:20:59.400 --> 0:21:01.320 the wing, to the wing, on top of the wing, 0:21:01.640 --> 0:21:03.760 fuels gushing out. Hydraulics is coming out. 0:21:03.800 --> 0:21:04.639 Fewer is coming out. 0:21:04.960 --> 0:21:07.920 Fuels pouring out through the holes inside the wing and 0:21:08.040 --> 0:21:10.200 on above and a bottom below the wing, so that 0:21:10.840 --> 0:21:14.959 these pieces were going through aluminium. This thick fifteen mealstick 0:21:15.160 --> 0:21:17.439 through a fuel tank five feet deep and fueled through 0:21:17.480 --> 0:21:22.320 another aluminium panel. Fifteen meals thick. When airbusts design the 0:21:22.400 --> 0:21:25.000 aircraft to take a rotorburst, which is what we've got, 0:21:25.480 --> 0:21:28.719