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Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Kristan Amiot.

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Speaker 1: It's Monday, October sixth, twenty twenty five. The clock is

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Speaker 1: ticking on a Middle East peace deal proposed by US

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Speaker 1: President Donald Trump. HAMAS is split on whether to agree

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Speaker 1: to the plan, which would require the militant group to

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Speaker 1: fully disarm, destroy its weapons, and leave Gaza for good.

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Speaker 1: Talks between HAMAS and the United States will take place

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Speaker 1: in Egypt on Monday, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netnyahu

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Speaker 1: said he hopes all remaining hostages held in Gaza will

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Speaker 1: be returned in the coming days. Support for Pauline Hansen's

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Speaker 1: One Nation Party has almost doubled since the federal election

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Speaker 1: in May, while care support for the coalition is lingering

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Speaker 1: at record lows. That's according to new data from Newspoll,

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Speaker 1: which also says the Albanese Labour government has recorded its

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Speaker 1: strongest primary vote in more than two years. You can

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Speaker 1: read our experts analysis right now at the Australian dot

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Speaker 1: com dot au. Japan will usher in its newest prime

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Speaker 1: minister in as many years in a matter of weeks.

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Speaker 1: The question is can Sanai Takeichi the first woman to

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Speaker 1: be elevated to the top job. Hang on to it.

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Speaker 1: That's today's episode. She was so firm and uncompromising in

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Speaker 1: her politics they called her the Iron Lady. Margaret Thatcher

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Speaker 1: was the longest serving British Prime Minister of the twentieth

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Speaker 1: century and the first woman to hold the position.

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Speaker 2: It is our purpose to return the power and influence

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Speaker 2: of this House are not to denude it of many

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Speaker 2: of the powers.

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Speaker 1: The conservative ideology that drove her policies and also her

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Speaker 1: unique style came to be known as Thatcherism, and the

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Speaker 1: people who subscribe to it were dubbed Thatcher Rights. It's

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Speaker 1: a label. Sixty four year old Tona Takaichi bears proudly

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Speaker 1: a longtime admirer of Thatcher's. Takaiji is the first woman

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Speaker 1: to be elected to lead Japan's conservative Liberal Democratic Party,

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Speaker 1: clearing the way for her to become the country's new

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Speaker 1: Prime minister in a matter of weeks.

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Speaker 2: She's very much modeled herself as an inheritor of the

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Speaker 2: shinto Abe political tradition in Japan.

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Speaker 1: Will Glasgow is The Australian's North Asia correspondent.

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Speaker 2: And she's very much a conservative. She's from that Abe

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Speaker 2: wing of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, But while she's

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Speaker 2: got a lot of the same political instincts or conservative

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Speaker 2: positions as Abe, she's not got anything like the track

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Speaker 2: record of electoral success that Abe has had. Now she's

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Speaker 2: won this part vote, but there's really a lot of

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Speaker 2: questions about will she actually get very far in prosecuting

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Speaker 2: that case to return to the Abe legacy.

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Speaker 1: Japan's Liberal Democratic Party has governed almost continuously since its

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Speaker 1: inception in the nineteen fifties. It oversaw Japan's recovery following

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Speaker 1: World War II, turning it into an economic superpower and

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Speaker 1: developing a pro America foreign policy. Sanai Takeichi is the

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Speaker 1: second party leader to be elected in the space of

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Speaker 1: a year.

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Speaker 3: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has moments ago said he is resigning.

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Speaker 3: The decision to step down comes as Issuba works to

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Speaker 3: avoid a split within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the LDPS.

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Speaker 2: By the time he steps down, there will be five

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Speaker 2: former prime ministers from the LDP in the party room

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Speaker 2: when they gather five former and then this new prime minister,

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Speaker 2: So the churn has returned. So you've had a very

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Speaker 2: turbulent period within the LDP as the factions jostle with

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Speaker 2: one another for who should lead, with no one since

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Speaker 2: Abe resigned and he was later horrendously assassinated in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two. But since then, there's just been no one

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Speaker 2: who's been able to assert dominance over Japanese politics in

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Speaker 2: anything like that way, and look like they had a

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Speaker 2: firm grip on power. They've always been undermined by some

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Speaker 2: other faction within the party, and at every single election

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Speaker 2: since he stood down, they've performed poorly. So look in

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Speaker 2: her victory speech after winning the leadership contests on Saturday night,

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Speaker 2: she was very frank that the party's facing a very

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Speaker 2: difficult outlook. She said, rather than feeling happy now, I

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Speaker 2: feel the future is truly difficult, and really every analyst

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Speaker 2: of Japanese politics, all her party members would agree with that.

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Speaker 2: Her next challenge is to secure so poured from other

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Speaker 2: minor parties in the Japanese political system. She doesn't need

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Speaker 2: that to become the prime minister. She just needs the

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Speaker 2: most votes when the Japanese Parliament, the Diet meets most

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Speaker 2: likely in the next fortnight, but it's still to be

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Speaker 2: confirmed by the time we're talking. But then to pass

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Speaker 2: any legislation her LDP party is going to need the

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Speaker 2: support of minor parties in the Japanese system, and the

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Speaker 2: LDP's natural coalition partner, it's a much more moderate political party,

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Speaker 2: and Takashi was by far the least popular amongst that

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Speaker 2: minor party. So even the existing coalition agreement that the

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Speaker 2: LDP has, or coalition arrangement at least, even that's looking uncertain.

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Speaker 2: But then those two parties together don't now have enough

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Speaker 2: votes in the lower House, and that's where things get

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Speaker 2: really complicated for her and really complicated for Japanese politics.

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Speaker 2: It's an unusual state of affairs where so many of

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Speaker 2: the minor parties are in play and could potentially be

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Speaker 2: crucial to passing in any legislation. And it's why as

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Speaker 2: she's just won this party vote and is on the

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Speaker 2: cusp of making history as Japan's first female prime minister,

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Speaker 2: there are questions about how long is she going to

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Speaker 2: last in both of those roles.

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Speaker 1: So Ken Senai Takeichi right the ship.

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Speaker 2: Look, she's on me the conservative side of the Liberal

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Speaker 2: Democratic Party. There are much more conservative or hardline or nationalists,

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Speaker 2: and so the pitch that Takashi and her supporters have

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Speaker 2: made is that she's going to be able to bring

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Speaker 2: some of those voters who have drifted away from the

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Speaker 2: LDP towards these upstart parties. She's going to be able

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Speaker 2: to bring quite a few of them back, and it's

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Speaker 2: over to her to prove that. The flip is though

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Speaker 2: she lost to rivals who have much more appeal amongst

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Speaker 2: your hands, big cities and amongst Japan's younger voters, and

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Speaker 2: that's where all the polling shows she really struggles. So

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Speaker 2: there is no perfect candidate for the LDP who can

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Speaker 2: straddle both those worlds. They've tacked to her and perhaps

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Speaker 2: she's going to be able to arrest that decline and

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Speaker 2: votes from the right of the party and bring people

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Speaker 2: back in. But the danger for them is that she

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Speaker 2: loses more from the party's left amongst its moderate voters,

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Speaker 2: So you know, that's a real challenge she's got. And look, finally,

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Speaker 2: a key thing to note about her is in this

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Speaker 2: leadership tilled she spoke often quite vaguely on a lot

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Speaker 2: of topics, so on a whole bunch of policy issues.

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Speaker 2: It's just really unclear as a prime minister how she

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Speaker 2: going to behave compared to we know where she's been

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Speaker 2: as someone who's been free of that office, but it's

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Speaker 2: quite a different thing once she's the Japanese Prime minister

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Speaker 2: as to where she's going to land on a lot

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Speaker 2: of these things.

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Speaker 1: Takaichi is described as a China Hawk. Of course, Australia

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Speaker 1: is concerned about China's growing military might end its apparent

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Speaker 1: objectives in the Pacific. How is her election as party

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Speaker 1: leader and probable prime minister likely to influence that dynamic.

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Speaker 2: She's long been a hardliner or maybe you call her

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Speaker 2: a China hawk on relations with Beijing. Again during the campaign,

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Speaker 2: though she's spoke much more moderately about China. So even

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Speaker 2: in her foreign policy positions, where she's often been quite

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Speaker 2: loud and consistent up until this leadership contest, even there,

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Speaker 2: it's not quite clear how much of those positions she's

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Speaker 2: well known for in Japanese public life, how much of

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Speaker 2: those are going to endure in office. And I guess

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Speaker 2: one of the things a lot of people are watching

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Speaker 2: for clues on that are who is she going to

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Speaker 2: put into key posts. So we just have to wait

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Speaker 2: and see on that, and again it'll give us an

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Speaker 2: indicator into how she's going to behave Now some of

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Speaker 2: these questions, we won't be left asking for long. She's

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Speaker 2: going to be most likely becoming Japan's Prime minister just

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Speaker 2: before summit season, so she's expected to be at the

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Speaker 2: Asian Leaders Meeting towards the end of October that's in Malaysia,

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Speaker 2: and then right after that she's expected to host Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: the American President, in Tokyo, just before they both go

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Speaker 2: to APEC, which is going to be in South Korea

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Speaker 2: on the last day of October, and then on too

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Speaker 2: November first, So she's going to meet at least on

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Speaker 2: the sidelines. We don't know if you'll have a formal

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Speaker 2: bilateral meeting, but she'll meet China's leader, Shijinping. So how

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Speaker 2: that meeting with she goes, how she behaves in the

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Speaker 2: meeting with Trump, how she goes with other regional leaders.

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Speaker 2: All of those questions are going to be answered very

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Speaker 2: soon by her on the global stage with all of

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Speaker 2: us watching. Coming up.

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Speaker 1: What the elevation of Sinai Takaichi means for Australia. In August,

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Speaker 1: Australia awarded a lucrative military contract to Japanese shipbuilder Mitsubishi

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Speaker 1: Heavy Industries. Well, Japan has won a fierce battle to

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Speaker 1: build a new fleet of Australian warships, winning a ten

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Speaker 1: billion dollar contract with the Albanese government. Add to that

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Speaker 1: a commitment to train Japanese troops alongside Australians and Americans

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Speaker 1: in the top end, and you've got the makings of

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Speaker 1: a strong geostrategic relationship. Just lastly, Will You wrote for

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Speaker 1: The Australian that this is Anthony Albanese's third Japanese counterpart

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Speaker 1: since he was elected as Prime Minister in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 1: and that of course begs the question of what Sana

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Speaker 1: Takachi means for Australia's bilateral relationship with Japan.

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Speaker 2: History shows us that the Australian Japan relationship has been

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Speaker 2: able to not only endure, but actually strengthened despite a

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Speaker 2: lot of political instability. So in the Abe era, actually

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Speaker 2: Canberra was the source of instability, you know Shinzo Abe

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Speaker 2: when he was first elected. Julia Gillard was Australia's Prime

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Speaker 2: minister for a couple of months before Kevin Rudd returned

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Speaker 2: for a couple of months before Tony Abbott was elected

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Speaker 2: for a few years before Malcolm Turnbull came into power.

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Speaker 2: For a couple more years before Scott Morrison did so.

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Speaker 2: All through that though, Japan and Australia really improved and

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Speaker 2: more closely aligned their strategic relationship, working much more on

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Speaker 2: shared foreign policy and security goals. What really united them

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Speaker 2: was to share concern about Beijing, about the increased capabilities

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Speaker 2: of the People's Liberation Army and it's more assertive behavior

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Speaker 2: in the region. Now in the first Trump era, Washington's

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Speaker 2: unreliability also became a shared concern between Tokyo and Canberra.

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Speaker 2: And of course it is again so the strategic alignment

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Speaker 2: that brings the two countries together. If anything, it's only

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Speaker 2: intensified since then. So I think that, however long this

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Speaker 2: next Japanese Prime minister last, I think that the relationship

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Speaker 2: between Australia and Japan is just so strategically important, it's

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Speaker 2: also economically important. I mean, Japan is Australia's second biggest

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Speaker 2: economic market. All that said, though, it's not a new

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Speaker 2: thing that we've got short term Japanese prime ministers, and

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Speaker 2: that they're revolving within the LDP itself, going from one

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Speaker 2: faction to another. A concerning thing for Australia is that

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Speaker 2: the LDP's electoral popularity has fallen so much that there

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Speaker 2: are questions about is that pattern going to endure? You know,

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Speaker 2: if the LDP actually lost government an opposition came in,

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Speaker 2: then the band of foreign policy positions really grows, and

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Speaker 2: it's not clear that Australia Japanese alignment would be quite

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Speaker 2: so comfortable and natural as it has been throughout the

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Speaker 2: LDP period. And the worst case scenario for Australia is

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Speaker 2: that this is an unsuccessful prime ministership that even worsens

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Speaker 2: the party's position within the Japanese electorate to such a

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Speaker 2: point that the Japanese public goes for quite a different

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Speaker 2: sort of a medley of other parties, and that they

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Speaker 2: throw up some foreign policy positions that make that Australia

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Speaker 2: Japan relationship much less clear or makes working together much harder.

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Speaker 1: Well Glasgow is The Australian's North Asia correspondent. You can

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Speaker 1: read all his reporting and analysis right now at the

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Speaker 1: Australian dot com dot au