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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. The Reserve Bank is set

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Speaker 1: to announce an interest rate cut tomorrow afternoon. Amid gathering

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Speaker 1: clouds on the global economic horizon, Prime Minister Anthony Abernezi

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Speaker 1: attends Pope Leo the fourteenth inauguration ceremony and talks trade

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Speaker 1: with Europe and a major breakthrough in the treatment of

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Speaker 1: Alzheimer's disease. Plus superannuation funds do a decent job amid

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Speaker 1: financial market uncertainty, and experts find an original manuscript of

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Speaker 1: the Magna Carta. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business

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Speaker 1: news for people who make their own decisions. It is Monday,

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Speaker 1: the nineteenth of May twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson,

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Speaker 1: and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Johnny're looking a little bit weary this morning. You completed

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Speaker 1: the ride for Country Kids, the three hundred and eighty

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Speaker 1: kilometer ride. I want to ask you a couple of

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Speaker 1: questions about how it all went. But you are You're upright.

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Speaker 2: I'm upright. We made it.

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Speaker 1: That is the main thing. Let's get to the main story.

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Speaker 1: We'll have a bit of a chat about that in

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Speaker 1: a little bit. The main story this morning Seawan. The

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Speaker 1: Reserve Bank is expected to announce a cut in interest

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Speaker 1: rates tomorrow afternoon. A mid fear is over the US

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Speaker 1: economy and also what a rate cut would mean for

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Speaker 1: house prices.

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Speaker 2: The Reserve Bank Board meets today and tomorrow. The announcement

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Speaker 2: is expected at two thirty pm tomorrow, followed by a

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Speaker 2: press conference from Governor Michelle Bullock. Markets priced in a

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Speaker 2: greater than ninety percent chance of a rate cut. Why

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Speaker 2: will Inflation is trending back to two and a half percent,

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Speaker 2: maybe a touch lower. The Reserve Bank doesn't want it

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Speaker 2: to go any lower. It actually wants it in the

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Speaker 2: middle of its target point. Also, the local economy is soft.

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Speaker 2: We're seeing that particularly among households. The Reserve Bank just

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Speaker 2: needs to give the economy a bit of a boost. Also,

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Speaker 2: there is plenty of global uncertainty. The big news over

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Speaker 2: the weekend is that ratings agency Moodies cut the US's

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Speaker 2: credit rating from the top ranking triple A to the

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Speaker 2: next one that's double A one. The move, which was

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Speaker 2: criticized by the White House, not surprisingly reflects the ballooning

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Speaker 2: US government debt, which it has to pay back at

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Speaker 2: some point. Fitch and SMP. The other two ratings agencies

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Speaker 2: have already downgraded the US, so all the big three

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Speaker 2: have now downgraded the US's credit rating.

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Speaker 1: All right, So if the Reserve Bank Board does announce

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Speaker 1: a rate cut tomorrow, that's all well and good for

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Speaker 1: those of us with a mortgage. Though we want to

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Speaker 1: know whether the banks are going to pass on that rate.

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Speaker 2: Cut, Michael, I reckon. They've got their press releases ready

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Speaker 2: to go as we speak.

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Speaker 1: They're just waiting to hit go.

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Speaker 2: Do you remember that the rate cut a couple of

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Speaker 2: months ago, We actually had ads on Nova within thirty minutes.

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Speaker 1: That's right, So I mean clearly there is a great

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Speaker 1: expectation that it is going to happen, and they would

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Speaker 1: be prepared.

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Speaker 2: Right absolutely. It means that a standard variable homelowne rate

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Speaker 2: will come down to the low sixers, though if you

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Speaker 2: negotiate with ORLANDA you can probably get the high fives

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Speaker 2: or even better. Of course, it also means deposit rates

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Speaker 2: will drop. We found out recently that the relatively high

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Speaker 2: deposit rates around the place at the moment had triggered

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Speaker 2: a ten year record for the amount of money on

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Speaker 2: term deposit. Many economists are saying that there will be

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Speaker 2: a rate cut tomorrow, but that doesn't mean there's going

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Speaker 2: to be a run of them. They say there's too

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Speaker 2: much uncertainty in the market for that, but bond market

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Speaker 2: investors think otherwise. They've priced in two more cuts this year.

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Speaker 1: As someone who has a very interesting take on all

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Speaker 1: of this, as always, is our resident economist Stephen Coucoulis,

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Speaker 1: who appears every week in Fear and Greed the Weak Ahead,

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Speaker 1: which comes up after this show. Sean, I reckon this

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Speaker 1: could actually be the best episode of the week Ahead

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Speaker 1: we've ever ever.

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Speaker 2: Is that because you spoke to Stephen not me, might be.

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Speaker 1: Like that have something to do with it. Maybe I'm

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Speaker 1: just being modest on maybe Look what does all this

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Speaker 1: mean for the housing market, because that is the big

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Speaker 1: kind of question mark. Is it going to fuel the

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Speaker 1: market too much?

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Speaker 2: Yes, so that's a bit of an unknown. But generally

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Speaker 2: rate cuts lead to price rises. Bank of Queensland economist

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Speaker 2: Peter Monkton reckons that once rates start falling, house prices

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Speaker 2: start rising, and based on the past forty years or so,

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Speaker 2: a ten to fifteen percent rise in house prices over

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Speaker 2: the next two years is a reasonable estimate. Be interesting

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Speaker 2: we haven't seen anything yet with the preliminary clearance straight

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Speaker 2: for auctions across the country over the past week back

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Speaker 2: under seventy percent. You might remember back in February, the

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Speaker 2: weekend before the rate cut, the clearance rate took off.

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Speaker 2: That didn't happen last weekend. So we wait and see

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Speaker 2: on the housing market. But broadly, when rates start falling,

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Speaker 2: house prices start rising.

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Speaker 1: And just quickly, what about the local market.

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Speaker 2: Well, training suggests a local market will open flat. Notwithstanding

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Speaker 2: a strong weekend on Wall Street. That announcement from Moody's

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Speaker 2: came after Wall Street closed, so Wall Street actually did

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Speaker 2: really well, But then the fact that Moodies came out

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Speaker 2: and did that on the credit rating for the US

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Speaker 2: has tempered confidence in the local market. A rate cut

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Speaker 2: should help earnings and inter straight sensitive stocks like the

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Speaker 2: property companies should benefit. Now there's INPA six two hundred

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Speaker 2: is only about two and a half percent shy of

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Speaker 2: its record in February, so there's a chance it will

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Speaker 2: get there soon. But the twerfall it still is a

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Speaker 2: big weight around the neck of the market. So who knows.

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Speaker 1: Okay, now, Sean today, as we do every weekday, there

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Speaker 1: is a new edition of the Fear and Greed Daily Newsletter, which,

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Speaker 1: if you were to sum up the reason why you

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Speaker 1: should subscribe to it in just one sentence, What would

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Speaker 1: it be on.

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Speaker 2: A Monday if you haven't done much reading over the weekend,

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Speaker 2: but you want to get to work knowing what's going

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Speaker 2: on in the world. Nowhere better than the Fear and

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Speaker 2: Greed Newsletter one sentence.

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Speaker 1: That was one sentence. It sounded like you were pausing

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Speaker 1: multiple times, but they were just commas.

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Speaker 2: Were they commas?

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Speaker 1: Yepeh, no full stops.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So head along to Fearangreed dot com dot you sign

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Speaker 1: up free daily newsletter in your inbox every morning by

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Speaker 1: six am. And today there features a photo of you

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Speaker 1: and our colleague Adam Lang with the biggest grins on

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Speaker 1: your faces. And I'm guessing that was taken pretty much

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Speaker 1: as you crossed the finish line for the ride for

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Speaker 1: Country Kids Bike Ride.

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Speaker 2: It sure was. You said three hundred and sixty kilometers.

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Speaker 2: We wrote three hundred and ninety three kilometers, a couple

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Speaker 2: of wrong turns, so guys, we did it over three days.

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Speaker 2: It was one of the great experiences I've had in

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Speaker 2: recent years. And to do it with Adam was pretty special.

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Speaker 2: We had a team of eight. There was about one

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Speaker 2: hundred riders on the road and there's four pelotons. As

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Speaker 2: you can tell, my voices gone because I didn't realize this,

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Speaker 2: but when you're writing in a peloton, when you're writing,

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Speaker 2: you're always yelling at each other, you.

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Speaker 1: Know, because you were swallowing bugs and things.

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Speaker 2: Well maybe were're going that fast. You're always telling each

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Speaker 2: other what's coming up and what's going on and block

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Speaker 2: an EMU fantastic and Michael I had just have to

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Speaker 2: thank so many of our listeners for donating money. We

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Speaker 2: achieved our goal, which is fantastic. Combined the aid of

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Speaker 2: Us got we was close to thirty five thousand dollars

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Speaker 2: we raised and the Royal far West the organization, it

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Speaker 2: achieved its goal and truly was one of the great events.

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Speaker 2: And to see rural Australia and the people out there.

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Speaker 2: We visited schools and saw the kids and it was

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Speaker 2: just unreal.

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Speaker 1: That is incredible, What a fantastic experience. And congratulations to

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Speaker 1: the two of you enter the broader team as well,

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Speaker 1: because that is a major, major achievement, So well done.

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Speaker 2: Thanks.

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Speaker 1: All right, we'll take a quick break. We'll be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 2: Sewn.

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Alberesi attended Pope Leo the fourteenth inauguration ceremony

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Speaker 1: overnight and is inviting him to visit Australia in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty eight.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it's for the World EU Cominical Congress. It would

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Speaker 2: be the first papal visit to Australia since Pope Benedict

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Speaker 2: the sixteenth visited back in two thousand and eight. Alberanzi

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Speaker 2: said that one of his first memories is Pope Paul

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Speaker 2: the six visiting Piermont Bridge Road camperdown at the hospital

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Speaker 2: there across the road from where he was living at

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Speaker 2: the time, and being taken by his mother to see

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Speaker 2: the Pope. The Prime Minister's attendance at the Mass of

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Speaker 2: inauguration is the first time an Australian Prime minister has

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Speaker 2: attended a papal inauguration since diplomatic relations were established in

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Speaker 2: nineteen seventy three. Anthony Alberanzi, of course is a Catholic,

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Speaker 2: as was Tony Abbott, but mostly we haven't had too

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Speaker 2: many Catholic prime ministers funnily enough.

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Speaker 1: Oh really, While he's in Europe. The Prime Minister is

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Speaker 1: going to press the region to do a free trade

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Speaker 1: deal with Australia, asking to allow our producers to be

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Speaker 1: able to use names like feta and prosecco.

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Speaker 2: The Prime Minister will meet European Commissioner Chief Ursula vonder Layan. Now,

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Speaker 2: previous talks between Europe and Australia have founded on the

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Speaker 2: use of words used in Europe to describe cheeses and wines,

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Speaker 2: but then we've adopted them here in Australia and the

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Speaker 2: Europeans haven't enjoyed that. The biggest hurdle, though, to a

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Speaker 2: free trade deal is the e used restrictive conditions and

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Speaker 2: quotas on Australian agricultural products, especially sugar, beef and lamb,

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Speaker 2: as well as the blocks determination to limit the use

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Speaker 2: of those geographical food and drink terms. According to The Australian,

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Speaker 2: the twenty seven member Block, which includes France, Germany, Italy

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Speaker 2: and Greece, was Australia's third largest trading partner in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty three to Way trade, valued at more than one

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Speaker 2: hundred billion dollars.

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Speaker 1: Now superannuation funds. I mentioned this at the top of

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Speaker 1: the show they've weathered the tariff storm remarkably well, according

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Speaker 1: to chant West, with the media and super fund delivering

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Speaker 1: positive return in April.

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Speaker 2: So growth funds delivered zero point five percent. Now that

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Speaker 2: might not sound like much, but given we have that

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Speaker 2: massive sell off at the beginning of April, it's a

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Speaker 2: pretty good outcome. Now, a growth fund has sixty one

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Speaker 2: to eighty percent of its assets in growth assets such

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Speaker 2: as equities, it means for the financial years so far,

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Speaker 2: it's ten of the twelve months worried about six percent.

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Speaker 2: Not spectacular, but not bad either, particularly when you think

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Speaker 2: that the last couple of years, super funds have returned

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Speaker 2: more than ten percent, and that six percent is above

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Speaker 2: inflation and growth. The more conservative portfolios they call it

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Speaker 2: a conservative portfolio, balanced portfolio, they actually did better than

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Speaker 2: the more aggressive portfolios, which they call higher growth or growth.

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Speaker 2: So it does just sort of demonstrate when you are

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Speaker 2: spreading or diversifying your portfolio, you do sometimes do better

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Speaker 2: in these tough times. Over the long terms, though, ten

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Speaker 2: to fifteen years, the more aggressive portfolios have done best.

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Speaker 1: And finally, before we get to international news, commercial property

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Speaker 1: group Dexas could be forced to sell at stake in

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Speaker 1: Melbourne Airport after co investors claimed it breached confidentiality arrangement.

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Speaker 2: Really interesting. So Dexas has held a twenty seven percent

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Speaker 2: stake in Melbourne Airport since twenty twenty three. Other shareholders

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Speaker 2: in the company that owns the airport includes big super

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Speaker 2: funds and the Future Fund. The Financial Reviews reporting that

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Speaker 2: some of the investors in the holding managed by Dexas

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Speaker 2: wanted to sell, so Dexas went and started pitching to

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Speaker 2: potential new investors. In doing so, they allegedly allegedly disguised

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Speaker 2: confidential information such as financial forecasts that may not have

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Speaker 2: been available allegedly to other investors. Probably will end up

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Speaker 2: in court, but it is a really interesting kind of focus,

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Speaker 2: I suppose on corporate governance and how that world works.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, turning to me international news now, the largest

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Speaker 1: retailer in the US, Walmart, has delivered a solid set

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Speaker 1: of sales and earnings figures, but has warned that it

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Speaker 1: might have to increase prices because of tariffs.

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Speaker 2: Walmart's a behemoth, and what Walmart says and does really

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Speaker 2: matters in the US economy now. A spokesperson for Walmart

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Speaker 2: said that the company will keep prices low for as

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Speaker 2: long as possible, citing small retail profit margins. But the

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Speaker 2: bottom line with these tariffs, higher costs of inputs, supply

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Speaker 2: chain issues. As a result of the tariffs, well, they

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Speaker 2: may have to raise prices now. Not surprisingly, Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: basted them in a social media post, I quote, Walmart

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Speaker 2: should stop stopping caps, trying to blame tariffs as the

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Speaker 2: reason for raising prices throughout the chain. Walmart made billions

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Speaker 2: of dollars last year, far more than expected. The fact

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Speaker 2: that Walmart is now taking this on is quite significant.

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Speaker 2: We'll see where it lands.

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Speaker 1: US regulators have approved the first blood test to help

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Speaker 1: diagnose Alzheimer's disease, potentially making it easier to find and

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Speaker 1: treat patients with Really what is just the most horrific,

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Speaker 1: mind robbing disease that affects tens of millions of people globally.

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Speaker 1: This is significant.

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Speaker 2: The test, made by a Japanese company, was cleared for

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Speaker 2: people fifty five years and older who exhibit signs and

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Speaker 2: symptoms of the disease. The US Food and Drug Administration

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Speaker 2: says in a statement it's designed for the early detection

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Speaker 2: of emiloid, a protein that can build up in the

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Speaker 2: brain and is a hallmark of Alzheimer's, the most common

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Speaker 2: form of dementia in the elderly. According to Bloomberg, the

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Speaker 2: development and approval of blood tests that can spot which

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Speaker 2: patients are likely to have toxic amyloid in their brains

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Speaker 2: has been viewed as a critical step towards making drugs

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Speaker 2: that treat the condition more widely accessible, A very very

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Speaker 2: exciting breakthrough.

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Speaker 1: Finally, Sewan this story, I think this next one is

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Speaker 1: just remarkable. A faint, water stained manuscript in the library

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Speaker 1: of Harvard Law School, bought just after World War II,

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Speaker 1: for I think it was twenty seven US dollars, so

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Speaker 1: hardy a fortune, has been declared to be an original

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Speaker 1: thirteen hundred version of the Magna Carta.

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Speaker 2: They've had it, as you said, since World War two

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Speaker 2: or nineteen forty six or seven, I think it was.

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Speaker 2: And recently two British academics came upon the manuscript by chance.

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Speaker 2: I had a good look at it, and they've discovered

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Speaker 2: it isn't a copy as long thought, It's actually an

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Speaker 2: original thirteen hundred version. The Magna Carta is a medieval

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Speaker 2: document that helped establish what's considered some of the world's

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Speaker 2: fundamental freedoms and freedoms and liberties. A lot of the

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Speaker 2: things that we take for granted now was actually first

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Speaker 2: written in the Magna Carta. This latest one is one

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Speaker 2: of just seven such documents from that date still in existence.

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Speaker 2: According to the New York Times, you were right. It's

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Speaker 2: sold for that twenty seven dollars US or something like that.

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Speaker 2: I don't know how much it's worth now. A seven

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Speaker 2: hundred and ten year old version of Magna Carter was

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Speaker 2: sold in two thousand and seven for about twenty one

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Speaker 2: million US. That's well north of that.

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Speaker 1: That is staggering, isn't it all? Right?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 1: Shown up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview.

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Speaker 1: Your guest. Today, you're speaking to Paul Miron, who is

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Speaker 1: the managing director of M squared, capitalist supporter of Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed.

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Speaker 2: It's a great chat. Now we mean private credit. We've

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Speaker 2: spoken a bit about what we look in this interview

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Speaker 2: is how people should think about it for their portfolios.

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Speaker 2: So we're talking about the chant West figures and the

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Speaker 2: importance of diversification. That's where private credit can help portfolios,

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Speaker 2: but we also look at the risks involved. It's not

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Speaker 2: you know just to look at the good things about

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Speaker 2: private credit at all. It's about the risks involved, how

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Speaker 2: the macro outlook affects it. It's a really interesting chat.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it was just a really really comprehensive look at it,

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Speaker 1: and it was great to have Paul in the studio

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Speaker 1: for that. It has come up next to the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed dot com. Today you thank you, Sean, thank

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Speaker 1: you Michael. It is Monday, the nineteenth of May twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and please

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Speaker 1: join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook,

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Speaker 1: and don't forget to sign up for the Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed newsletter. I'll put the link in today's show notes.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and that with Fear and Greed. Have

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Speaker 1: a great day.