WEBVTT - Why Trump didn’t visit Israel and what it means for Gaza

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<v Speaker 1>Greg What is the current situation on the ground in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 2>The past week or so has been, I think, even

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<v Speaker 2>by the standards of the previous nineteen months, a particularly

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<v Speaker 2>horrific time in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>Great Calstrum covers the Middle East for the economist. For

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<v Speaker 1>the past week, he's been spaking with people inside Gaza

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<v Speaker 1>as a situation day DETERIORATEE.

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<v Speaker 2>You've had a week of very heavy Israeli airstrikes, with

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<v Speaker 2>reports of more than one hundred Palestinians killed each night

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<v Speaker 2>in successive bombardments. And then the humanitarian situation, of course

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<v Speaker 2>is dire. Gaza has been under a blockade for two

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<v Speaker 2>and a half months. No food, no aid of any

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<v Speaker 2>kind has been allowed to enter, so people are beginning

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<v Speaker 2>to go hungry in Gaza. It's been, even by the

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<v Speaker 2>standards of this war, a very very difficult time over

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<v Speaker 2>the past week.

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<v Speaker 1>What's happening now in Gaza has been in the works

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<v Speaker 1>for some time, with is Raeley officials sign want to

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<v Speaker 1>conquer and occupy the strip. In the past week, hundreds

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<v Speaker 1>of Palestinians have been killed, making it one of the

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<v Speaker 1>deadliest periods in Gaza since ceasefire negotiations broke down in March.

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<v Speaker 1>Last week, Donald Trump visited the Middle East, but didn't

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<v Speaker 1>go to Israel. From Schwartz Media, I'm Daniel James. This

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<v Speaker 1>is seven AM today, Middle East correspondent for the Economist

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<v Speaker 1>Greg Carlstrom, and the role Trump is playing and what

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<v Speaker 1>it would take for the war to end. This Tuesday,

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<v Speaker 1>May twenty, Israel has launched a new campaign in Gaza,

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<v Speaker 1>one that Benjamin Ettina, who spelled out a few weeks

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<v Speaker 1>ago what we're seeing now, was approved by his cabin

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<v Speaker 1>on May fifth. So what has he said about what

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<v Speaker 1>the goal is in relation to this latest operation.

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<v Speaker 2>The way the Israeli government and the Israeli Army are

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<v Speaker 2>talking about this operation is a sustained plan to occupy

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<v Speaker 2>territory in Gaza. If you contrast it with the way

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<v Speaker 2>the army typically fought in the first year of this war.

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<v Speaker 2>Israeli troops would go into parts of Gaza, they would

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<v Speaker 2>carry out raids for a period of days or weeks,

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<v Speaker 2>but eventually they would withdraw, and so Israel didn't actually

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<v Speaker 2>control much of Gaza except for the periphery and these

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<v Speaker 2>two East West axes that cut across the strip. The

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<v Speaker 2>plan now is to actually hold territory. So the army

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<v Speaker 2>has called up tens of thousands of reservists.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a much bigger force.

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<v Speaker 2>Several divisions that are meant to go into Gaza essentially

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<v Speaker 2>raise everything to the ground, with no distinction between military

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<v Speaker 2>or civilian targets, raise all of the buildings in Gaza

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<v Speaker 2>and permanently hold that territory and displace the Palestinian population

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<v Speaker 2>to a very small sliver of Gaza towards the south side.

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<v Speaker 1>Goal is to occupy land in the Kaza Strip. To

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<v Speaker 1>what end greg.

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<v Speaker 2>Depends on who you ask for the Army, for Nathaniel himself,

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<v Speaker 2>the aim of this is a Gaza that is no

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<v Speaker 2>longer controlled by Hamas, and so the new army chief,

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<v Speaker 2>who took office a couple of months ago, the way

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<v Speaker 2>he sees this is by carrying out raids, but then

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<v Speaker 2>not holding territory. As the army did in the first

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<v Speaker 2>year of the war. It was giving Hamas space to regroup.

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<v Speaker 2>It could move into areas that had been vacated by

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<v Speaker 2>the Israeli Army and its fighters could regroup there, and

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<v Speaker 2>so the idea is to deny them that space to regroup.

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<v Speaker 2>The problem is, though for many of Nettaneo's coalition partners.

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<v Speaker 3>This isn't just a military strategy.

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<v Speaker 2>They see this as part of their longer term plan

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<v Speaker 2>to depopulate Gaza, to ethnically cleanse it of two million

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<v Speaker 2>Palestinians and force them into Egypt, to force them into

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<v Speaker 2>other territories, and to start rebuilding the Jewish settlements there

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<v Speaker 2>which were dismantled in two thousand and five.

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<v Speaker 3>That is how people like it.

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<v Speaker 2>Tomar ben kvie Betsllsmotrich, the hard right ministers in Netaniel's cabinet,

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<v Speaker 2>how they see this new war plan playing out.

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<v Speaker 1>Greg since the war began, Benjamin Netanya, who's stided aims

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<v Speaker 1>debate to destroy Hamas. What does the current membership of

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<v Speaker 1>Hamas lock in Sad Gaza.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a very good question because much of the leadership

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<v Speaker 2>of Hamas inside Gaza has been killed over the past

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<v Speaker 2>twenty months. Yeahjea Sinhwar, who is the group's overall head,

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<v Speaker 2>was killed in a firefight with Israeli troops last autumn.

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<v Speaker 2>A number of its military commanders the second rung, have

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<v Speaker 2>also been killed. But there is a fairly inexhaustible supply

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<v Speaker 2>of those young men who were willing to take up

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<v Speaker 2>arms because of what Israel has done over the past

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<v Speaker 2>twenty months, because of the horror and devastation in Gaza,

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<v Speaker 2>that creates new recruits for Hamas.

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<v Speaker 3>The Israeli Army.

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<v Speaker 2>Itself acknowledges that, but that limits it military capability. It's

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<v Speaker 2>not a strategic threat to Israel in the way that

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<v Speaker 2>you could say Hamas might have been before October seventh,

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<v Speaker 2>and then as a governing entity in Gaza. I mean, yes,

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<v Speaker 2>it's able to control parts of Gaza right now, which

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<v Speaker 2>are these chaotic, ungoverned spaces. It's able to control them

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<v Speaker 2>because for twenty months Israel hasn't been willing to talk

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<v Speaker 2>about an alternative. It hasn't been willing to consider the

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<v Speaker 2>Palestinian authority coming back to Gaza or other ideas like that.

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<v Speaker 2>And if you create a power vacuum, of course Hamas

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<v Speaker 2>still has enough guns to fill that vacuum. But does

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<v Speaker 2>that mean they'll be able to effectively govern Gaza after

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<v Speaker 2>the war ends. No, Gaza needs tens of billions of

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<v Speaker 2>dollars for reconstruction. That is something that the international community

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<v Speaker 2>could use as leverage over Hamas to urge it to

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<v Speaker 2>demand that it seed power that it disarmed. That is

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<v Speaker 2>actually effective leverage over the group. So I don't think

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<v Speaker 2>Israel can completely exterminate Hamas destroy it as an entity,

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<v Speaker 2>but I do think the damage that has been done

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<v Speaker 2>to Hamas at this point is such that it's not

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<v Speaker 2>going to be a strategic threat or a major political

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<v Speaker 2>force the way it was.

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<v Speaker 1>And now those members of Hamas that are stealing Gaza,

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<v Speaker 1>where are they?

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<v Speaker 2>Many of them are probably underground. There are obviously hundreds

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<v Speaker 2>of kilometers of tunnels that criss cross Gaza that Hamas

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<v Speaker 2>dug over the nearly twenty year period that it controlled Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>The Israeli army earlier in.

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<v Speaker 2>The war was quite focused on trying to find those

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<v Speaker 2>tunnels and demolish them, or at least blow up the

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<v Speaker 2>entrances and exits to those tunnels, but they admit the

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<v Speaker 2>network is much more extensive than they expected, and the

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<v Speaker 2>surviving leadership of Hamas such as it is, is probably

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<v Speaker 2>hiding out in those tunnels, and that's probably where they're

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<v Speaker 2>keeping at least some of the remaining Israeli hostages who

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<v Speaker 2>are also still being held in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>Here would you describe the cinement within Israel? Is there

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<v Speaker 1>support for Nittanyahu's Escalaisian.

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<v Speaker 3>No, there's not.

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<v Speaker 2>Polls have been very very consistent about this for months now.

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<v Speaker 2>Most Israelis between sixty and seventy percent are in favor

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<v Speaker 2>of ending the war. They are in favor of a

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<v Speaker 2>deal that would see the release of all remaining Israeli

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<v Speaker 2>hostages in exchange for a permanent end to the war.

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<v Speaker 2>The Israeli government continues to insist that military pressure on

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<v Speaker 2>Hamas will free those hostages, but the Israeli public by

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<v Speaker 2>and large doesn't believe that because they've seen over the

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<v Speaker 2>past nineteen twenty months that Israeli troops have only been

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<v Speaker 2>able to free a handful of hostages.

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<v Speaker 3>There are reports actually just this.

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<v Speaker 2>Morning of another Israeli raid in Gaza that was meant

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<v Speaker 2>to free hostages that doesn't seem to have succeeded in

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<v Speaker 2>doing that.

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<v Speaker 3>Diplomacy deals with Hamas that is the only way.

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<v Speaker 2>That Israel has been able to free large numbers of hostages.

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<v Speaker 2>So there is not much public support for continuing this war,

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<v Speaker 2>and even within the military.

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<v Speaker 3>There is some opposition to it.

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<v Speaker 2>There are issues with reservists not mobilizing when they're called

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<v Speaker 2>for duty. In some cases, fifty percent of soldiers in

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<v Speaker 2>a given unit are not showing up for duty, not

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<v Speaker 2>necessarily for political reasons. Sometimes it's because they have already

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<v Speaker 2>done hundreds of days in uniform since October seventh, and

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<v Speaker 2>they have jobs, they have families, they have lives. They

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<v Speaker 2>don't want those to be interrupted again.

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<v Speaker 1>After the break. Why Trump didn't visit Israel, Greg says

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<v Speaker 1>for negotiations of katined out of the waken and Kata,

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<v Speaker 1>what do we know about what is being discussed there?

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<v Speaker 2>So I think there are almost two parallel negotiations going

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<v Speaker 2>on right now. There are these indirect media between Israel

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<v Speaker 2>and Hamas in Kutter, which is rehashing things that they

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<v Speaker 2>have been talking about for months now. A possible deal

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<v Speaker 2>that would see Hamas release a handful of hostages seven

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<v Speaker 2>to ten, let's say, in exchange for a few hundred

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<v Speaker 2>Palestinian prisoners released from Israeli jails and a period of

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<v Speaker 2>six seven eight weeks of ceasefire. This has been something

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<v Speaker 2>that they've been discussing since Israel abandoned the previous ceasefire

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<v Speaker 2>in March. But then there are perhaps the more consequential

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<v Speaker 2>negotiations that are taking place between Steve Witkoff, who is

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump's Middle East Envoy, Ron Dermer, who is a

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<v Speaker 2>top aid to the Israeli Prime Minister, and some negotiations

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<v Speaker 2>with Hamas as well through a back channel that the

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<v Speaker 2>Americans seem to have established with Hamas, and I think

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<v Speaker 2>those are the more significant negotiations. There is pressure being

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<v Speaker 2>applied by the Americans, both on the Israeli govern and

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<v Speaker 2>on Hamas to try to get them to at least

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<v Speaker 2>the temporary deal now with the promise that will lead

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<v Speaker 2>to a permanent ceasefire a bit further down the road.

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<v Speaker 1>So so far another side has been willing to agree

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<v Speaker 1>to a ceasefire. Can you talk to me about Hamas's

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<v Speaker 1>strategy and what reasons they might have for not agreeing

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<v Speaker 1>to a deal.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, what they want, it's the same thing that they

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<v Speaker 2>have wanted since the beginning of this war, really, which

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<v Speaker 2>is a permanent cease fire with some sort of guarantees

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<v Speaker 2>that Israel won't abandon that cease fire the moment Hamas

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<v Speaker 2>releases the last hostage that it's holding. Because they want

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<v Speaker 2>to remain in power in Gaza, they want to remain

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<v Speaker 2>in charge of the territory, and they have been willing

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<v Speaker 2>to destroy Gaza in order to remain in power in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>That's what we've seen. So they agreed to a cease.

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<v Speaker 2>Fire back in January, as did Israel, was meant to

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<v Speaker 2>take place in three stages. The first phase saw them

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<v Speaker 2>release some hostages, and then there were meant to be

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<v Speaker 2>negotiations about which was a more permanent truce. Israel never

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<v Speaker 2>started those negotiations over phase two. It refused to really engage.

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<v Speaker 2>So Hamas now argues they want guarantees that this is

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<v Speaker 2>going to be a permanent deal. They don't just want

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<v Speaker 2>something on paper that says, you know, we'll start negotiating

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<v Speaker 2>about a permanent ceasefire. They want American guarantees that that

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<v Speaker 2>process is going to begin.

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<v Speaker 1>What are we to mic of Donald Trump's decision not

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<v Speaker 1>to visit Israel during his recent trip to the Middle East,

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<v Speaker 1>which FETCHI stops in Serie Arabia, Kata and the UIA.

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<v Speaker 3>I think you can make two things of it. One

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<v Speaker 3>is that Israel didn't.

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<v Speaker 2>Fit with the agenda of this trip. They didn't want

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<v Speaker 2>to go argue with Nataniaou for a day about the

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<v Speaker 2>gods a ceasefire. He wanted this very lavish, warm welcome

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<v Speaker 2>that he got in the Gulf. He wanted big economic headlines.

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<v Speaker 2>He wanted to be able to tout to voters at home.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, here's a trillion dollars of new trade and

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<v Speaker 2>investment deals that we signed. So I think that's one

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<v Speaker 2>reason he skipped Israel. But I do think there are

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<v Speaker 2>also growing signs of a split when it comes to

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<v Speaker 2>policy between the United States and Israel. Trump announcing nuclear

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<v Speaker 2>negotiations with Iran without telling the Israelis in advance, announcing

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<v Speaker 2>a truce with the Houthies in Yemen, again without coordinating

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<v Speaker 2>with Israel. And then these direct talks that the Americans

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<v Speaker 2>are now having with Hamas, which led to the release

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<v Speaker 2>of one Israeli American hostage from Gaza last week. That

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<v Speaker 2>was something that was verbot in American diplomacy for decades.

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<v Speaker 2>He could not talk to Hamas.

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<v Speaker 3>The fact that the.

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<v Speaker 2>Americans are now doing it, going over the head of

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<v Speaker 2>the Israelis to negotiate directly with Hamas another break. So

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<v Speaker 2>I think Trump has his own sense of what America's

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<v Speaker 2>interests are in the Middle East, and he is willing

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<v Speaker 2>to go over the head of the Israeli Prime Minister

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<v Speaker 2>in a way that no other American president has in

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<v Speaker 2>recent decades.

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<v Speaker 1>Has Trumpary's administration said anything about Israel's escalation.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, they said they have had some concern.

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<v Speaker 2>They have been a bit more forceful on the question

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<v Speaker 2>of aid, you know, Marco Rubio and Trump himself saying

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<v Speaker 2>that there is a problem of hunger, a problem of

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<v Speaker 2>starvation in Gaza and urging Israel publicly to let humanitarian

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<v Speaker 2>aid in. And I think that sort of pressure is

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<v Speaker 2>why we saw this overnight announcement on Sunday night, the

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<v Speaker 2>Cabinet agreeing to let a barebones amount of food start

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<v Speaker 2>to go into Gaza. They've been less forceful in public

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<v Speaker 2>when it comes to Israel's plans for a big new offensive.

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<v Speaker 2>In private, my understanding is that a lot of people

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<v Speaker 2>within the administration are skeptical of these plans. They want

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<v Speaker 2>the war to end. They feel like it's becoming a

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<v Speaker 2>headache for Donald Trump. It's becoming something that is hovering

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<v Speaker 2>over and obstructing a lot of what he's trying to

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<v Speaker 2>do in the Middle East. So I think privately there

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<v Speaker 2>is a fair amount of concern.

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<v Speaker 1>And greg is there any credible path forward diplomatically or

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<v Speaker 1>otherwise that could lead to a ceasefire or lasting peace.

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<v Speaker 2>A ceasefire, I think it really depends on American pressure.

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<v Speaker 2>If Donald Trump is prepared to demand, whether in public

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<v Speaker 2>or in private, that Natagnell end the war, the Israeli

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<v Speaker 2>Prime Minister has no choice.

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<v Speaker 3>But to go along with that.

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<v Speaker 2>He can't fight this war without American military support, American

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<v Speaker 2>diplomatic support.

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<v Speaker 3>And at the end of the day, Nataniel.

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<v Speaker 2>Was afraid of Trump because he's this unpredictable figure and

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<v Speaker 2>nobody knows what he's going to do. So Trump could

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<v Speaker 2>impose a ceasefire, a lasting piece, whether between Israel and

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<v Speaker 2>Gaza or Israel and the Palestinians more generally. I think, unfortunately,

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<v Speaker 2>we are so far away from that being a reality.

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<v Speaker 2>It's almost not a conversation that anyone is having yet.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's something that is going to take many,

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<v Speaker 2>many years. Greg, Thank you so much for your tom

0:14:50.720 --> 0:15:03.640
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for having me. Also in the news.

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<v Speaker 1>Today, Joe Biden has an aggressive form of prostate cancer,

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<v Speaker 1>which has spread to his bones. The former president was

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<v Speaker 1>diagnosed on Friday after seeing doctors about urinary symptoms. In

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<v Speaker 1>a statement, his office said Biden and his family are

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<v Speaker 1>exploring treatment options and gena Reinerhart has thrown her support

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<v Speaker 1>behind Ben Robert Smith, arguing the relentless attack on the

0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:29.560
<v Speaker 1>disgraced former soldier has weakened the nation. Robert Smith lost

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<v Speaker 1>his appeal on Friday after three federal court judges found

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<v Speaker 1>he was not defamed by the nine newspapers when they

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<v Speaker 1>published reports claiming he had committed war crimes. Robert Smith

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<v Speaker 1>has always denied the allegations. Gina Reinhardt, who was donated

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<v Speaker 1>to support the legal cost of former SAS soldiers, declined

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<v Speaker 1>to say whether she personally paid for Ben Robert Smith's

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<v Speaker 1>legal fees. I'm Daniel James this seven AM. See you

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<v Speaker 1>tomorrow at one mo.