Speaker 1: Greg What is the current situation on the ground in Gaza.
Speaker 2: The past week or so has been, I think, even
Speaker 2: by the standards of the previous nineteen months, a particularly
Speaker 2: horrific time in Gaza.
Speaker 1: Great Calstrum covers the Middle East for the economist. For
Speaker 1: the past week, he's been spaking with people inside Gaza
Speaker 1: as a situation day DETERIORATEE.
Speaker 2: You've had a week of very heavy Israeli airstrikes, with
Speaker 2: reports of more than one hundred Palestinians killed each night
Speaker 2: in successive bombardments. And then the humanitarian situation, of course
Speaker 2: is dire. Gaza has been under a blockade for two
Speaker 2: and a half months. No food, no aid of any
Speaker 2: kind has been allowed to enter, so people are beginning
Speaker 2: to go hungry in Gaza. It's been, even by the
Speaker 2: standards of this war, a very very difficult time over
Speaker 2: the past week.
Speaker 1: What's happening now in Gaza has been in the works
Speaker 1: for some time, with is Raeley officials sign want to
Speaker 1: conquer and occupy the strip. In the past week, hundreds
Speaker 1: of Palestinians have been killed, making it one of the
Speaker 1: deadliest periods in Gaza since ceasefire negotiations broke down in March.
Speaker 1: Last week, Donald Trump visited the Middle East, but didn't
Speaker 1: go to Israel. From Schwartz Media, I'm Daniel James. This
Speaker 1: is seven AM today, Middle East correspondent for the Economist
Speaker 1: Greg Carlstrom, and the role Trump is playing and what
Speaker 1: it would take for the war to end. This Tuesday,
Speaker 1: May twenty, Israel has launched a new campaign in Gaza,
Speaker 1: one that Benjamin Ettina, who spelled out a few weeks
Speaker 1: ago what we're seeing now, was approved by his cabin
Speaker 1: on May fifth. So what has he said about what
Speaker 1: the goal is in relation to this latest operation.
Speaker 2: The way the Israeli government and the Israeli Army are
Speaker 2: talking about this operation is a sustained plan to occupy
Speaker 2: territory in Gaza. If you contrast it with the way
Speaker 2: the army typically fought in the first year of this war.
Speaker 2: Israeli troops would go into parts of Gaza, they would
Speaker 2: carry out raids for a period of days or weeks,
Speaker 2: but eventually they would withdraw, and so Israel didn't actually
Speaker 2: control much of Gaza except for the periphery and these
Speaker 2: two East West axes that cut across the strip. The
Speaker 2: plan now is to actually hold territory. So the army
Speaker 2: has called up tens of thousands of reservists.
Speaker 3: It's a much bigger force.
Speaker 2: Several divisions that are meant to go into Gaza essentially
Speaker 2: raise everything to the ground, with no distinction between military
Speaker 2: or civilian targets, raise all of the buildings in Gaza
Speaker 2: and permanently hold that territory and displace the Palestinian population
Speaker 2: to a very small sliver of Gaza towards the south side.
Speaker 1: Goal is to occupy land in the Kaza Strip. To
Speaker 1: what end greg.
Speaker 2: Depends on who you ask for the Army, for Nathaniel himself,
Speaker 2: the aim of this is a Gaza that is no
Speaker 2: longer controlled by Hamas, and so the new army chief,
Speaker 2: who took office a couple of months ago, the way
Speaker 2: he sees this is by carrying out raids, but then
Speaker 2: not holding territory. As the army did in the first
Speaker 2: year of the war. It was giving Hamas space to regroup.
Speaker 2: It could move into areas that had been vacated by
Speaker 2: the Israeli Army and its fighters could regroup there, and
Speaker 2: so the idea is to deny them that space to regroup.
Speaker 2: The problem is, though for many of Nettaneo's coalition partners.
Speaker 3: This isn't just a military strategy.
Speaker 2: They see this as part of their longer term plan
Speaker 2: to depopulate Gaza, to ethnically cleanse it of two million
Speaker 2: Palestinians and force them into Egypt, to force them into
Speaker 2: other territories, and to start rebuilding the Jewish settlements there
Speaker 2: which were dismantled in two thousand and five.
Speaker 3: That is how people like it.
Speaker 2: Tomar ben kvie Betsllsmotrich, the hard right ministers in Netaniel's cabinet,
Speaker 2: how they see this new war plan playing out.
Speaker 1: Greg since the war began, Benjamin Netanya, who's stided aims
Speaker 1: debate to destroy Hamas. What does the current membership of
Speaker 1: Hamas lock in Sad Gaza.
Speaker 2: It's a very good question because much of the leadership
Speaker 2: of Hamas inside Gaza has been killed over the past
Speaker 2: twenty months. Yeahjea Sinhwar, who is the group's overall head,
Speaker 2: was killed in a firefight with Israeli troops last autumn.
Speaker 2: A number of its military commanders the second rung, have
Speaker 2: also been killed. But there is a fairly inexhaustible supply
Speaker 2: of those young men who were willing to take up
Speaker 2: arms because of what Israel has done over the past
Speaker 2: twenty months, because of the horror and devastation in Gaza,
Speaker 2: that creates new recruits for Hamas.
Speaker 3: The Israeli Army.
Speaker 2: Itself acknowledges that, but that limits it military capability. It's
Speaker 2: not a strategic threat to Israel in the way that
Speaker 2: you could say Hamas might have been before October seventh,
Speaker 2: and then as a governing entity in Gaza. I mean, yes,
Speaker 2: it's able to control parts of Gaza right now, which
Speaker 2: are these chaotic, ungoverned spaces. It's able to control them
Speaker 2: because for twenty months Israel hasn't been willing to talk
Speaker 2: about an alternative. It hasn't been willing to consider the
Speaker 2: Palestinian authority coming back to Gaza or other ideas like that.
Speaker 2: And if you create a power vacuum, of course Hamas
Speaker 2: still has enough guns to fill that vacuum. But does
Speaker 2: that mean they'll be able to effectively govern Gaza after
Speaker 2: the war ends. No, Gaza needs tens of billions of
Speaker 2: dollars for reconstruction. That is something that the international community
Speaker 2: could use as leverage over Hamas to urge it to
Speaker 2: demand that it seed power that it disarmed. That is
Speaker 2: actually effective leverage over the group. So I don't think
Speaker 2: Israel can completely exterminate Hamas destroy it as an entity,
Speaker 2: but I do think the damage that has been done
Speaker 2: to Hamas at this point is such that it's not
Speaker 2: going to be a strategic threat or a major political
Speaker 2: force the way it was.
Speaker 1: And now those members of Hamas that are stealing Gaza,
Speaker 1: where are they?
Speaker 2: Many of them are probably underground. There are obviously hundreds
Speaker 2: of kilometers of tunnels that criss cross Gaza that Hamas
Speaker 2: dug over the nearly twenty year period that it controlled Gaza.
Speaker 3: The Israeli army earlier in.
Speaker 2: The war was quite focused on trying to find those
Speaker 2: tunnels and demolish them, or at least blow up the
Speaker 2: entrances and exits to those tunnels, but they admit the
Speaker 2: network is much more extensive than they expected, and the
Speaker 2: surviving leadership of Hamas such as it is, is probably
Speaker 2: hiding out in those tunnels, and that's probably where they're
Speaker 2: keeping at least some of the remaining Israeli hostages who
Speaker 2: are also still being held in Gaza.
Speaker 1: Here would you describe the cinement within Israel? Is there
Speaker 1: support for Nittanyahu's Escalaisian.
Speaker 3: No, there's not.
Speaker 2: Polls have been very very consistent about this for months now.
Speaker 2: Most Israelis between sixty and seventy percent are in favor
Speaker 2: of ending the war. They are in favor of a
Speaker 2: deal that would see the release of all remaining Israeli
Speaker 2: hostages in exchange for a permanent end to the war.
Speaker 2: The Israeli government continues to insist that military pressure on
Speaker 2: Hamas will free those hostages, but the Israeli public by
Speaker 2: and large doesn't believe that because they've seen over the
Speaker 2: past nineteen twenty months that Israeli troops have only been
Speaker 2: able to free a handful of hostages.
Speaker 3: There are reports actually just this.
Speaker 2: Morning of another Israeli raid in Gaza that was meant
Speaker 2: to free hostages that doesn't seem to have succeeded in
Speaker 2: doing that.
Speaker 3: Diplomacy deals with Hamas that is the only way.
Speaker 2: That Israel has been able to free large numbers of hostages.
Speaker 2: So there is not much public support for continuing this war,
Speaker 2: and even within the military.
Speaker 3: There is some opposition to it.
Speaker 2: There are issues with reservists not mobilizing when they're called
Speaker 2: for duty. In some cases, fifty percent of soldiers in
Speaker 2: a given unit are not showing up for duty, not
Speaker 2: necessarily for political reasons. Sometimes it's because they have already
Speaker 2: done hundreds of days in uniform since October seventh, and
Speaker 2: they have jobs, they have families, they have lives. They
Speaker 2: don't want those to be interrupted again.
Speaker 1: After the break. Why Trump didn't visit Israel, Greg says
Speaker 1: for negotiations of katined out of the waken and Kata,
Speaker 1: what do we know about what is being discussed there?
Speaker 2: So I think there are almost two parallel negotiations going
Speaker 2: on right now. There are these indirect media between Israel
Speaker 2: and Hamas in Kutter, which is rehashing things that they
Speaker 2: have been talking about for months now. A possible deal
Speaker 2: that would see Hamas release a handful of hostages seven
Speaker 2: to ten, let's say, in exchange for a few hundred
Speaker 2: Palestinian prisoners released from Israeli jails and a period of
Speaker 2: six seven eight weeks of ceasefire. This has been something
Speaker 2: that they've been discussing since Israel abandoned the previous ceasefire
Speaker 2: in March. But then there are perhaps the more consequential
Speaker 2: negotiations that are taking place between Steve Witkoff, who is
Speaker 2: Donald Trump's Middle East Envoy, Ron Dermer, who is a
Speaker 2: top aid to the Israeli Prime Minister, and some negotiations
Speaker 2: with Hamas as well through a back channel that the
Speaker 2: Americans seem to have established with Hamas, and I think
Speaker 2: those are the more significant negotiations. There is pressure being
Speaker 2: applied by the Americans, both on the Israeli govern and
Speaker 2: on Hamas to try to get them to at least
Speaker 2: the temporary deal now with the promise that will lead
Speaker 2: to a permanent ceasefire a bit further down the road.
Speaker 1: So so far another side has been willing to agree
Speaker 1: to a ceasefire. Can you talk to me about Hamas's
Speaker 1: strategy and what reasons they might have for not agreeing
Speaker 1: to a deal.
Speaker 2: Well, what they want, it's the same thing that they
Speaker 2: have wanted since the beginning of this war, really, which
Speaker 2: is a permanent cease fire with some sort of guarantees
Speaker 2: that Israel won't abandon that cease fire the moment Hamas
Speaker 2: releases the last hostage that it's holding. Because they want
Speaker 2: to remain in power in Gaza, they want to remain
Speaker 2: in charge of the territory, and they have been willing
Speaker 2: to destroy Gaza in order to remain in power in Gaza.
Speaker 3: That's what we've seen. So they agreed to a cease.
Speaker 2: Fire back in January, as did Israel, was meant to
Speaker 2: take place in three stages. The first phase saw them
Speaker 2: release some hostages, and then there were meant to be
Speaker 2: negotiations about which was a more permanent truce. Israel never
Speaker 2: started those negotiations over phase two. It refused to really engage.
Speaker 2: So Hamas now argues they want guarantees that this is
Speaker 2: going to be a permanent deal. They don't just want
Speaker 2: something on paper that says, you know, we'll start negotiating
Speaker 2: about a permanent ceasefire. They want American guarantees that that
Speaker 2: process is going to begin.
Speaker 1: What are we to mic of Donald Trump's decision not
Speaker 1: to visit Israel during his recent trip to the Middle East,
Speaker 1: which FETCHI stops in Serie Arabia, Kata and the UIA.
Speaker 3: I think you can make two things of it. One
Speaker 3: is that Israel didn't.
Speaker 2: Fit with the agenda of this trip. They didn't want
Speaker 2: to go argue with Nataniaou for a day about the
Speaker 2: gods a ceasefire. He wanted this very lavish, warm welcome
Speaker 2: that he got in the Gulf. He wanted big economic headlines.
Speaker 2: He wanted to be able to tout to voters at home.
Speaker 2: You know, here's a trillion dollars of new trade and
Speaker 2: investment deals that we signed. So I think that's one
Speaker 2: reason he skipped Israel. But I do think there are
Speaker 2: also growing signs of a split when it comes to
Speaker 2: policy between the United States and Israel. Trump announcing nuclear
Speaker 2: negotiations with Iran without telling the Israelis in advance, announcing
Speaker 2: a truce with the Houthies in Yemen, again without coordinating
Speaker 2: with Israel. And then these direct talks that the Americans
Speaker 2: are now having with Hamas, which led to the release
Speaker 2: of one Israeli American hostage from Gaza last week. That
Speaker 2: was something that was verbot in American diplomacy for decades.
Speaker 2: He could not talk to Hamas.
Speaker 3: The fact that the.
Speaker 2: Americans are now doing it, going over the head of
Speaker 2: the Israelis to negotiate directly with Hamas another break. So
Speaker 2: I think Trump has his own sense of what America's
Speaker 2: interests are in the Middle East, and he is willing
Speaker 2: to go over the head of the Israeli Prime Minister
Speaker 2: in a way that no other American president has in
Speaker 2: recent decades.
Speaker 1: Has Trumpary's administration said anything about Israel's escalation.
Speaker 3: I mean, they said they have had some concern.
Speaker 2: They have been a bit more forceful on the question
Speaker 2: of aid, you know, Marco Rubio and Trump himself saying
Speaker 2: that there is a problem of hunger, a problem of
Speaker 2: starvation in Gaza and urging Israel publicly to let humanitarian
Speaker 2: aid in. And I think that sort of pressure is
Speaker 2: why we saw this overnight announcement on Sunday night, the
Speaker 2: Cabinet agreeing to let a barebones amount of food start
Speaker 2: to go into Gaza. They've been less forceful in public
Speaker 2: when it comes to Israel's plans for a big new offensive.
Speaker 2: In private, my understanding is that a lot of people
Speaker 2: within the administration are skeptical of these plans. They want
Speaker 2: the war to end. They feel like it's becoming a
Speaker 2: headache for Donald Trump. It's becoming something that is hovering
Speaker 2: over and obstructing a lot of what he's trying to
Speaker 2: do in the Middle East. So I think privately there
Speaker 2: is a fair amount of concern.
Speaker 1: And greg is there any credible path forward diplomatically or
Speaker 1: otherwise that could lead to a ceasefire or lasting peace.
Speaker 2: A ceasefire, I think it really depends on American pressure.
Speaker 2: If Donald Trump is prepared to demand, whether in public
Speaker 2: or in private, that Natagnell end the war, the Israeli
Speaker 2: Prime Minister has no choice.
Speaker 3: But to go along with that.
Speaker 2: He can't fight this war without American military support, American
Speaker 2: diplomatic support.
Speaker 3: And at the end of the day, Nataniel.
Speaker 2: Was afraid of Trump because he's this unpredictable figure and
Speaker 2: nobody knows what he's going to do. So Trump could
Speaker 2: impose a ceasefire, a lasting piece, whether between Israel and
Speaker 2: Gaza or Israel and the Palestinians more generally. I think, unfortunately,
Speaker 2: we are so far away from that being a reality.
Speaker 2: It's almost not a conversation that anyone is having yet.
Speaker 2: I think that's something that is going to take many,
Speaker 2: many years. Greg, Thank you so much for your tom
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me. Also in the news.
Speaker 1: Today, Joe Biden has an aggressive form of prostate cancer,
Speaker 1: which has spread to his bones. The former president was
Speaker 1: diagnosed on Friday after seeing doctors about urinary symptoms. In
Speaker 1: a statement, his office said Biden and his family are
Speaker 1: exploring treatment options and gena Reinerhart has thrown her support
Speaker 1: behind Ben Robert Smith, arguing the relentless attack on the
Speaker 1: disgraced former soldier has weakened the nation. Robert Smith lost
Speaker 1: his appeal on Friday after three federal court judges found
Speaker 1: he was not defamed by the nine newspapers when they
Speaker 1: published reports claiming he had committed war crimes. Robert Smith
Speaker 1: has always denied the allegations. Gina Reinhardt, who was donated
Speaker 1: to support the legal cost of former SAS soldiers, declined
Speaker 1: to say whether she personally paid for Ben Robert Smith's
Speaker 1: legal fees. I'm Daniel James this seven AM. See you
Speaker 1: tomorrow at one mo.