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Speaker 1: Now voters in the seat of Black are gearing up

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Speaker 1: for a by election. It's after David Spears announced on

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Speaker 1: the weekend on Saturday he'll be quitting Parliament amid the

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Speaker 1: white powder scandal, which he alleges as a deep fake.

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Speaker 1: He released a video on the weekend revealing he was

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Speaker 1: arrested and charged with drug offenses and will fight to

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Speaker 1: clear his name. The Liberals are on the lookout for

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Speaker 1: a candidate to stand in the seat, as are the

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Speaker 1: other parties too. Labor holding a meeting today to select

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Speaker 1: its candidate in the by election. How's this going to

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Speaker 1: play out? Could it be? Well? It certainly will be

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Speaker 1: a test for their new leader, Vincent Tazia. Emeritus Professor

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Speaker 1: Clem McIntyre has been looking at state politics for a

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Speaker 1: very long time. Clem, good morning, Good morning. Now what

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Speaker 1: is going to happen here? Obviously the Libs will be

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Speaker 1: trying their hardest to avoid another Dunstan debacle.

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Speaker 2: Yes, that's right, will all. We've got to remember that

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Speaker 2: the Liberals have got a history of factional disputes over

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Speaker 2: selection of candidates and they don't always work as harmoniously

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Speaker 2: as as they might. So the Liberals have got to

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Speaker 2: find their candidate. Labor of course will put somebody up.

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Speaker 2: We imagine the Greens will. Those are the three parties

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Speaker 2: that contested the election last time around, but it's open

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Speaker 2: to any party. And of course at by elections we

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Speaker 2: frequently see probably a large number of independents than of

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Speaker 2: the general election, because all the focuses on one seat.

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Speaker 2: Independence tend to get lost in the noise of a

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Speaker 2: general election, but if there's if it's just one by

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Speaker 2: election on then independents often think they've got a bit

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Speaker 2: more of a chance there. And someone like Jeff brock

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Speaker 2: in the seat of Frome was first elected at a

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Speaker 2: by election, of course, so I expect we'll see more

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Speaker 2: than the three candidates who stood at twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 2: The three parties I should say und stood in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two.

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Speaker 1: There'd be a lot of support for David Spears in

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Speaker 1: the electorate. I imagine he was certainly quite popular as the

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Speaker 1: local member. And when our own Roberin went out there

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Speaker 1: when the alleged deep fake video first surface, she spoke

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Speaker 1: to people in the electorate. Now this is anecdotal to

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Speaker 1: some degree. Its certainly not a professionally conducted pole, but

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Speaker 1: there was a great deal of support for David Spears.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and I heard some sort of oox pops over

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Speaker 2: the weekend which were also quite supportive of him. So

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Speaker 2: the personal vote will be considerable. That will disappear how

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Speaker 2: much that personal vote, you know, personal support for David

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Speaker 2: Spears is affected by the circumstances of his resignation. Whether

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Speaker 2: that drives more people away from the party or builds

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Speaker 2: up some almost sympathy remains to be seen. But I

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Speaker 2: suspect once it comes to election time an unfamiliar name

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Speaker 2: on the ballot paper won't help the Liberal Party. It's

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Speaker 2: always difficult measuring the personal support for candidate rather than

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Speaker 2: the party, but certainly at the last election, the swing

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Speaker 2: against David Spears in the primary vote was smaller than

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Speaker 2: it was across the rest of the state. Though the

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Speaker 2: swing in two party preferred terms was I think about

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Speaker 2: six and a half percent, which was not far off

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Speaker 2: the broad average. So David Spears won other election in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two with just over two and a half

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Speaker 2: percent margin, which makes it very tight. And the redistribution

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Speaker 2: for the seat of Black looks like it's favoring labor

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Speaker 2: a bit, so the margin will be even targe. I

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Speaker 2: think nominally it's still a Liberal seat, but even tighter

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Speaker 2: than the two point seven percent that was won by

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Speaker 2: the last time. So Labor we'll be looking at lips

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Speaker 2: at this challenge. They famously, of course, one seat of

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Speaker 2: Dunstan when Steven Marshall left the Parliament. We don't often

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Speaker 2: see governments win seats from the opposition at bi electors.

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Speaker 2: If Labor can pull off another one, then that will

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Speaker 2: be an extraordinary result and Vincent Tasia, the new Liberal leader,

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Speaker 2: will be looking over his shoulder, I think, because it

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Speaker 2: would be a very dark day for the Liberal Party.

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Speaker 2: Surely they lose this seat.

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Speaker 1: Surely they couldn't change leaders again with the election well

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Speaker 1: just over a year away.

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Speaker 2: No, I think that would well, yes, we anticipate what

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Speaker 2: the Liberal Party do with our own, our own peril, izink,

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Speaker 2: because they're not a happy They're not a happy party

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Speaker 2: in lots of ways. But the critics of Vincentazi will

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Speaker 2: be out if they can't hold that seat, so it's

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Speaker 2: a real test for him. Well, whereas you know, Labor

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Speaker 2: will be delighted if they win it, but they can

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Speaker 2: easily explain a loss if the Liberals hold onto the seat.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so the redistribution you mentioned that that takes effect currently,

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Speaker 1: does it. It's not at the next election, it's in

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Speaker 1: place already.

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Speaker 2: No, you're quite right. The by election will be held

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Speaker 2: under the old old boundaries. But I'm just you know,

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Speaker 2: I'm reflecting on where the direction of that seat is going. Yes, okay, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: you're correct that the by election will be held under

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Speaker 2: the old boundaries, right.

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Speaker 1: As at the last stated elections. So all rightually, okay,

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Speaker 1: interesting times ahead, and you'd think at some point claim,

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Speaker 1: and this is just wildly speculating, I suppose, but the

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Speaker 1: Liberal Party might after forty odd years of more than that,

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Speaker 1: fifty sixty years of this sort of mess, yeah, would

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Speaker 1: have maybe found some time to sort it out between

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Speaker 1: the factions.

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Speaker 2: Well, there have been times when they have settled those disputes, obviously.

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Speaker 1: Stephen Marshall's times.

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Speaker 2: Yes, from the time Stephen Marshall became leader of the

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Speaker 2: party and he really emerged without clear factional support as

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Speaker 2: an undisputed, unopposed candidate when Isabelle Redmond stepped down. But

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Speaker 2: it's clear from the battles we've seen in pre selections

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Speaker 2: in recent days at both state and federal level and

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Speaker 2: fights over the organizational positions, that there are still deep,

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Speaker 2: deep divisions inside the South Australian Liberal Party division. And

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Speaker 2: it's as you say, it's very nearly. I think we're

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Speaker 2: fifty nine and a half years since Tom Playford lost

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Speaker 2: the election of nine to sixty five and the Liberals

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Speaker 2: have been in power for under twenty of those sixty

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Speaker 2: year so that's it's a very poor record for any

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Speaker 2: major party in Australia. Indeed, but they seem to keep,

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Speaker 2: you know, stumbling over the same the same internal fights.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, is it does it stem back to still haul

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Speaker 1: changing the electoral boundaries to get rid of the gerrymanda

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Speaker 1: that existed, Is that where it all began?

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Speaker 2: No, I think that the internal divisions inside the party,

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Speaker 2: that the tension between the moderates and the conservatives predates that.

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Speaker 2: And you speaking very simple terms, under under Tom Playford's

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Speaker 2: Liberal Country League, the rural parts of South Australia overrepresented

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Speaker 2: and they tended to return very conservative members of that

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Speaker 2: of that party and the urban seats were the more

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Speaker 2: moderate members, so they were outgunned in terms of party numbers.

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Speaker 2: But when steel Hall became and I think he recognized

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Speaker 2: that it was impossible to defend a result where Labor

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Speaker 2: was regularly winning more votes than the Liberal Party and

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Speaker 2: yet was failing to win those seats. So the idea

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Speaker 2: of one vote, one value is pretty central to our

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Speaker 2: sense of politics in Australia now and it's very difficult

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Speaker 2: to defend the situation that had existed up until up

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Speaker 2: until the mid sixties. But it compounded the problem in

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Speaker 2: the sense of the vision, the battles within the party.

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Speaker 2: And remember that that Steel Hall for a while stepped

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Speaker 2: away from the Liberal Party and formed the Liberal Movement,

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Speaker 2: which was reflecting those more moderate voices.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting, isn't it. You talk about the instability And

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Speaker 1: Mike Ran used to go on about the Liberal leaders

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Speaker 1: that he faced while he was both opposition leader around

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Speaker 1: premier and there were three when he was opposition leader

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Speaker 1: in Brown, Elson and Karen and then I've like account,

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to think it was Ian Evans, Martin Hamilton Smith,

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Speaker 1: Isabelle Ridabill and then Stephen Marshall. He's based off on

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Speaker 1: all of those. He used to go to town on

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Speaker 1: that and Peter Melanowsk is already up to three in

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Speaker 1: Stephen Marshall David Spiers and Vincent Tazia.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and if you think back since the eighties, the

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Speaker 2: Labor Party had John Bannon, Lenn Arnold, Mike ran Weatherll

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Speaker 2: and Melanowska. So that's just five in forty id years.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's not that Labour doesn't have its own

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Speaker 2: divisions and it's factional squabbles. They just managed to keep

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Speaker 2: them in house much more successfully and they manage that

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Speaker 2: process I think in a more professional way. The Liberal

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Speaker 2: Party arguments are just much more public and more telling

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Speaker 2: when it comes to, you know, sort of blood on

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Speaker 2: the floor at party meetings some time. Yea.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, all right, Clem, appreciate your time, Thank you, Thanks messy.

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Speaker 1: Professor Clem McIntire, Emeritus Professor on the issue of state

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Speaker 1: politics and what might happen in Black with a by

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Speaker 1: election looming, you presume if the resignation takes effect in

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Speaker 1: the next week when Parliament resumes, then I suppose two

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Speaker 1: months maybe December, early December potentially or early next year,

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Speaker 1: so we'll see. But by election looming with David Spears

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Speaker 1: announcing he will step down from State Parliament and the

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Speaker 1: seed of Black, we'll see what happens to