Speaker 1: I'm Daniel James and you're listening to seven AM. This year,
Speaker 1: Anthony Albanesi promised to make big changes on childcare, of
Speaker 1: many care, on the cost of living. But while the
Speaker 1: government delivered some wins, it also quietly stepped back from
Speaker 1: the fights it didn't want to have on gambling, housing
Speaker 1: and corporate power. Today, contributing editor for The New Daily,
Speaker 1: Amy Reymakers looks back on yet another huge year in
Speaker 1: politics and on the deal's labor made, reforms it shelved,
Speaker 1: and what that reveals about how this government really works.
Speaker 1: It's Monday, December twenty nine. Amy, good to see you again.
Speaker 1: Take me back to the start of the year, before
Speaker 1: the election campaign was really in full swing. How did
Speaker 1: Anthony Albanese's year begin.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it seems like a lifetime ago and it's not
Speaker 2: even twelve months. But we started this year knowing that
Speaker 2: an election was coming, but thinking that Labor potentially, at
Speaker 2: least from what the polls were telling us, end up
Speaker 2: in minority government.
Speaker 3: Now, there was a.
Speaker 2: Story and narrative at the time that the Coalition could
Speaker 2: potentially win government from opposition, that Peter Dutton was going
Speaker 2: to pull it off, but.
Speaker 3: The polls never actually said that.
Speaker 2: They said that Labor was in trouble, but they always
Speaker 2: said that the coalition was not popular, and you could
Speaker 2: tell that by looking at preferred leader, by looking at
Speaker 2: the coalition's primary vote, that sort of thing. But there
Speaker 2: was a real sense that the Albanese government was in trouble.
Speaker 2: They had recently lost the Voice referendum, which had taken
Speaker 2: a lot of wind out of their sales. Anthony Albanesi
Speaker 2: really started battening down the hatches after that started coming.
Speaker 2: It seemed like they were a government without answers when
Speaker 2: it came to deal with inflation, dealing with the cost
Speaker 2: of living, dealing with issues in service delivery for Australia,
Speaker 2: the issues in housing. It just seemed like whatever hope
Speaker 2: had come from the twenty twenty two election had completely
Speaker 2: and utterly dispersed by the twenty twenty five election.
Speaker 1: So they got off to a slow start, but by
Speaker 1: the time the campaign came around, they got themselves out
Speaker 1: of that slump. If we talk about the campaign itself,
Speaker 1: there was a lot of holding up of Medicare cards
Speaker 1: in speeches. What did that signify about the type of
Speaker 1: campaign Labor van.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was very much a back to basics Labor
Speaker 2: campaign and Labor sees medicare as one of its historical successes.
Speaker 2: And so what they did was they crafted this policy
Speaker 2: of saying, we're going to increase the bulk billing rates
Speaker 2: by you know, paying private practices a certain amount extra
Speaker 2: so that they can bulk bill more.
Speaker 4: We will offer every gig practice a new incentive payment
Speaker 4: to volk bill. This payment will go to every doctor
Speaker 4: in every practice that commits to volve billing every patient
Speaker 4: every time.
Speaker 2: If you looked behind that policy, it was essentially useless
Speaker 2: for most people's general practices because the hoops that they
Speaker 2: had to jump through did not make it economically viable
Speaker 2: for themselves to continue running practices. But the government knew
Speaker 2: that it had this headline figure that it could use
Speaker 2: to say, we're investing x amount into medicare. We're going
Speaker 2: to increase bolk billing.
Speaker 4: This will mean three times as many GP practices fully
Speaker 4: bulk billing. It will provide around four thousand, eight hundred
Speaker 4: medical practices across Australia with the security that they need
Speaker 4: to vulk build every visit.
Speaker 2: And then it had the amazing luck, happestance or whatever
Speaker 2: you want to call of Trump coming in with his tariffs,
Speaker 2: and one of his tariffs, one of the fights that
Speaker 2: he wanted to have was over Australia's PBS, which is
Speaker 2: of course the government subsidization of everyday medications for eligible Australians.
Speaker 4: It's not surprising that there is a push and some
Speaker 4: opposition to the PBS, but let me be very clear
Speaker 4: and explicit, the Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme is not for sale.
Speaker 2: And that was a fight that the Albanesi government was
Speaker 2: very happy to have because every time Anthony Albanezi held
Speaker 2: up that Medicare card and said, you know, I am
Speaker 2: fighting for you, I am fighting for Medicare, they were
Speaker 2: able to say we're putting more money into health and
Speaker 2: we're going to fight Trump to defend it for you.
Speaker 1: And that worked particularly well because there was all cir
Speaker 1: concerns within the electorate that Peter Dutton was very trumpy
Speaker 1: and when it came to a lot of his views
Speaker 1: and particularly around cultural stuff. So that defense of Medicare
Speaker 1: in particular was something that really rang through quite strongly.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was, and I mean, like I suppose my
Speaker 2: contribution to the campaign was accidentally coming up with Timu Trump,
Speaker 2: which you know, it landed because it rang true to
Speaker 2: so many Australians because Peter Dutton had always been the
Speaker 2: hard man.
Speaker 3: Of the coalition, that is the role that he had adopted.
Speaker 2: He was the you know, like have a good weekend lefties,
Speaker 2: you know, type of leader who was very open about
Speaker 2: the fact that he was strong on national security and
Speaker 2: that meant cracking down on minorities and crime and all
Speaker 2: the rest of it. And by the time the election
Speaker 2: came round, that an absolute negative for the coalition and
Speaker 2: that was one thing Labor had counted on.
Speaker 1: How Teama Trump didn't make it into the Coora dictionaries
Speaker 1: beyond me. But that's another thing.
Speaker 3: Should I mean the word of the year?
Speaker 2: Damn it.
Speaker 1: Anyways, if we returned to the election, what did the
Speaker 1: government promise during that campaign?
Speaker 3: It was very much a business as.
Speaker 2: Usual but we will try and make things a little
Speaker 2: bit easier campaign. So the main things that they were promising,
Speaker 2: apart from Medicare and we're all sick of that Medicare
Speaker 2: card being held up, was cutting student debts. They promised
Speaker 2: to cut about twenty percent from student hex and help debt.
Speaker 4: A re elected Labor government will take twenty percent off
Speaker 4: student debt for everyone who has won.
Speaker 3: And also dealing with housing.
Speaker 5: Our five percent deposit plan will be open to every
Speaker 5: Australian looking to buy their first home. It will be
Speaker 5: available for homes valued all the way up to the
Speaker 5: average price in every city and region, and you won't
Speaker 5: have to pay a single dollar in mortgage insurance.
Speaker 3: Our government will cover it, even.
Speaker 2: Though we've already seen policies like that, you know, increase
Speaker 2: the price of housing at least according to the experts
Speaker 2: who watch the housing market, and the fact that the
Speaker 2: Heck's cut has maybe helped students, but it hasn't actually
Speaker 2: done anything to address the cost of degrees that were
Speaker 2: increased under the Morrison government for a lot of students,
Speaker 2: particularly if you're studying arts or humanities.
Speaker 3: It was enough that it seemed like the government were
Speaker 3: doing something.
Speaker 1: If you were to name one thing the government's done
Speaker 1: that would count as a big win for them, what
Speaker 1: would you suggest it would be?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, I mean the government would would say that
Speaker 2: it's social media ban has been a massive win for
Speaker 2: it and it has you know, a lot of parents
Speaker 2: on side and a lot of.
Speaker 3: It is a very popular policy.
Speaker 2: But then you've got experts and young people saying this
Speaker 2: is not going to work, and you know, we're going
Speaker 2: to see the wheels fall off this in another couple
Speaker 2: of years. But right now the government is getting glowing
Speaker 2: international coverage over this.
Speaker 3: The government would consider its environmental laws.
Speaker 2: To be a massive win because that's something that they,
Speaker 2: you know, commentators including me, said would be very difficult
Speaker 2: for them to pass.
Speaker 3: They managed to get it through with the Greens, which
Speaker 3: means the laws are not as bad as they could
Speaker 3: have been.
Speaker 2: This isn't a win for the environment, but it's politically
Speaker 2: a win for the government, and this is a government
Speaker 2: that has been winning the politics a lot, but the
Speaker 2: policy is not up to scratch when.
Speaker 3: You consider, you know, people who were hoping.
Speaker 2: For progressive reform or even something that was different than
Speaker 2: the status quo that we've seen for the last few decades.
Speaker 1: Coming up, why twenty twenty six will defy In Albanesi's legacy,
Speaker 1: Anthony Albanesi wants his legacy to be universal childcare inn Ee,
Speaker 1: where we have seen the horrific outcomes of a broken
Speaker 1: childcare system. What has the Albanese government done to reform
Speaker 1: the sector?
Speaker 3: So I do think that.
Speaker 2: Anthony Albanesi is being very legitimate when he says that
Speaker 2: he wants to create a.
Speaker 3: Universal childcare system.
Speaker 2: And what that would mean is that we would consider
Speaker 2: childcare the same way that we consider medicare or the
Speaker 2: same way we consider public education, in that it shouldn't
Speaker 2: cost too much and it's open to know, you know, most.
Speaker 3: Australians without an issue.
Speaker 2: So the solution to making childcare universal in Australia is
Speaker 2: for the government to take over it, for the government
Speaker 2: to control it, and that's not what's going to happen.
Speaker 2: So what they're trying to do is retrofit all of
Speaker 2: these little fixes around a private system that is already
Speaker 2: pretty broken. So the first thing that they did was,
Speaker 2: you know, they increased the childcare subsidy. The idea was
Speaker 2: that if it's universal, it is open to everybody, you know,
Speaker 2: no matter how much you earn.
Speaker 3: But that just meant that childcare centers increase their fees.
Speaker 2: So every single thing that they've done, they've had to
Speaker 2: then retrofit another fix to try and ensure that their
Speaker 2: overall intentions are carried out. But then we had, of course,
Speaker 2: the horrendous stories as revealed by the ABC about all
Speaker 2: of the dangers in the childcare sector, how a lack
Speaker 2: of regulation has left it open to predators, and so
Speaker 2: now you're seeing states and the federal government have to
Speaker 2: retrofix safety regulations around that, which, of course in a
Speaker 2: private system is going to end up increasing costs.
Speaker 3: So what can they do.
Speaker 2: They can spend a lot more, which it doesn't look
Speaker 2: like they want to do in this inflationary environment because
Speaker 2: every single time the government is spending money on something,
Speaker 2: be it infrastructure, be it pay rises, be it whatever,
Speaker 2: they're then accused of adding to inflation. And then that
Speaker 2: conversation takes off and so we never really get to
Speaker 2: the nub of the problem, and.
Speaker 3: So we just go round and round and round.
Speaker 2: And this is not something that I think Anthony Albanezi
Speaker 2: can achieve even in a decade. This is going to
Speaker 2: be something that would take decades to fix, and ultimately
Speaker 2: it would be bringing childcare into the public sector for
Speaker 2: a government to control, and they're not going to do that,
Speaker 2: So it's a lofty goal.
Speaker 1: One of the fights that Labour seems extremely hesitant to
Speaker 1: have is on gambling reform. Their own reviews said the
Speaker 1: ban online gambling ads years ago. They haven't done it
Speaker 1: and they've been under pressure from the cross bench on
Speaker 1: the all year, so why would they take it on.
Speaker 3: I think it.
Speaker 2: Really speaks to one of the core issues with this government,
Speaker 2: which is its incrementalism. And Sean Kelly describes it in
Speaker 2: his latest quarterly essay The Good Fight as a government
Speaker 2: that doesn't want to offend anyone, a government that doesn't
Speaker 2: actually want to have the fights. And it doesn't seem
Speaker 2: like the government wants to have the fight with the
Speaker 2: gambling industry, even though they have all of the social
Speaker 2: license in the world to do this. They have so
Speaker 2: much political capital to do this. Nobody actually loses, and
Speaker 2: in terms of some of the arguments that have been
Speaker 2: thrown up, they are actually very easy fixes for that.
Speaker 2: One of the arguments we've heard is that it's going
Speaker 2: to make free to air media or you know, what's
Speaker 2: left of Australia's legacy media really suffer because of the
Speaker 2: lack of advertising. Experts have pointed out that you could
Speaker 2: just put a levy on gambling companies in Australia and
Speaker 2: that would you know, pay for the loss of gambling advertising.
Speaker 2: The Guardian had stopped accepting gambling advertising, and The Guardian
Speaker 2: is still doing quite well.
Speaker 3: It is possible.
Speaker 2: So this isn't a fight with anyone except the very
Speaker 2: vested interests of gambling companies and some media companies who
Speaker 2: want to continue seeing that revenue. And so what we're
Speaker 2: seeing is a government choosing its priorities to stay in power,
Speaker 2: and the way that they're doing that is by not
Speaker 2: having the fights, not offending any big interests.
Speaker 1: If we cast down on forward to this time next year, Amy,
Speaker 1: what do you expect from the Albanesi government, What do
Speaker 1: you actually expect from them in twenty twenty six, and
Speaker 1: what will we be talking about this time next year.
Speaker 2: Guy, It's so impossible, isn't it, Because when you look
Speaker 2: at the year that has just been, you're just kind
Speaker 2: of like that was only a year.
Speaker 3: It feels like a decade, you know.
Speaker 2: But looking at the landscape more broadly, I would expect
Speaker 2: this government to make any sort of reform moves it's
Speaker 2: going to make next year, probably around the budget time,
Speaker 2: and I would say that by the middle of next
Speaker 2: year we'll have a pretty good indication of how Labor
Speaker 2: starts to feel about its leadership, about its incrementalism, and
Speaker 2: about its future. Because on the numbers, the chances of
Speaker 2: the coalition winning are about as high as me becoming
Speaker 2: a bond Girl. But there is the chance that you
Speaker 2: start to see third parties, independents and disruptors like One
Speaker 2: Nation start to chip away at Labor seats or seats
Speaker 2: that Labour thinks.
Speaker 3: That they should be holding.
Speaker 2: That's when we're going to start to see is Labor
Speaker 2: going to transform, Is it going to be the party
Speaker 2: of reform, Is it going to try and set Australia
Speaker 2: up for the next ten years, or is Anthony Albanesi
Speaker 2: going to continue sacrificing Reform to be what he calls
Speaker 2: the natural party of government, thereby consigning Labor to.
Speaker 3: Know a pretty predictable future.
Speaker 1: Well, Amy, it's been one hell of a year and
Speaker 1: despite any sort of Bond Girl ambitions you may have had,
Speaker 1: you do have a license to kill and you've killed
Speaker 1: this year. So thanks so much for coming on and
Speaker 1: speaking to us throughout the year.
Speaker 2: Thank you as have you guys, You've been incredible.
Speaker 1: Tomorrow on the show, we're taking an in depth look
Speaker 1: at another of the big political stories of twenty twenty five,
Speaker 1: the wipeout of the Australian Greens after a terrible election
Speaker 1: result where they lost three out of four Lowerhouse MPs.
Speaker 1: The Greens had some soul searching to do. Now, more
Speaker 1: than six months out from the election, and under the
Speaker 1: leadership of Larissa Waters, they're beginning to show some signs
Speaker 1: of what they'll do next. I'm Daniel James. This is
Speaker 1: seven AM. Thanks for listening.