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Speaker 1: Tens of billions of dollars of tax cuts and higher

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Speaker 1: superannuation contributions kick in today at the start of the

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Speaker 1: new financial year. The S and p ASX two hundred

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Speaker 1: finishes the last financial year up eight percent, with Textocs

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Speaker 1: leading the way and Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide take the

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Speaker 1: gongs for strongest house price growth. Welcome to Fear and Greed,

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Speaker 1: daily business news for people who make their own decisions.

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Speaker 1: It is Monday, the first of July twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Are Michael Thompson and Good morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning,

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Speaker 1: Michael Sewn the main story this morning. It is one

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Speaker 1: July and there are a range of changes that kick

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Speaker 1: in from today, from income tax cuts for employees to

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Speaker 1: superannuation guarantee rating increases for employers.

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Speaker 2: Plenty going on this year. More than most everyone, I

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Speaker 2: mean everyone can expect more money in their paypacket as

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Speaker 2: a result of the Stage three tax cuts, which in

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Speaker 2: total are worth more than one hundred billion dollars. In short,

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Speaker 2: there's no tax if you weren up to eighteen thousand,

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Speaker 2: two hundred sixteen percent. Rate kicks in up to forty

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Speaker 2: five thousand, thirty percent up to one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 2: five thousand, thirty seven percent up to one hundred and

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Speaker 2: ninety thousand and forty five percent after that. There is

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Speaker 2: also an increase in the minimum wage, which affects two

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Speaker 2: point six million Australian workers. The minimum wage rises three

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Speaker 2: point seven five percent. That's from twenty three dollars twenty

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Speaker 2: three an hour to twenty four dollars ten an hour.

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Speaker 2: There's changes to pay parental leave next couple of weeks.

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Speaker 2: There also there will be seventy five dollars energy rebates

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Speaker 2: each quarter during this financial lim there's indexation of welfare

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Speaker 2: payments and this superannuation guarantee will rise from eleven percent

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Speaker 2: to eleven and a half percent. Yesterday, the Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: Anthony Albernizi, was at an Indian sweet factory in Melbourne,

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Speaker 2: unusual scrooking the cuts as part of the government's response

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Speaker 2: to the cost of living crisis. He said, thirteen point

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Speaker 2: six million Australian taxpayers we'll get a tax cut today.

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Speaker 1: Jo, I'm direckoning. There's many people that are out there

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Speaker 1: doing their tax returns today, you know, like Ned Flanders

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Speaker 1: on The Simpsons. And of course because the US operates

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Speaker 1: on the different fiscal year that they're January to January.

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Speaker 1: As soon as the fireworks went off on the first

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Speaker 1: of January, ned Flanders sits up, bolt up right in beds,

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Speaker 1: So better get going on those taxes directing. There's many

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Speaker 1: people out there getting going today because of course it's

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Speaker 1: faster now with the one touch kind of the payroll

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Speaker 1: tax reporting. Now you don't need to wait for your

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Speaker 1: group certificates.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think there's stacks people who do it

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Speaker 2: because many of them get a refund. And so what

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Speaker 2: you do. You do it and then if you realize

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Speaker 2: that you're not going to get a refund, you just

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Speaker 2: let it lay in a bayance for a little while.

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Speaker 2: If you're not getting a refund, push the send button.

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Speaker 1: There's a big, big incentive to get going early, isn't there. Now?

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Speaker 1: While the government was pushing hard on all the good news,

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Speaker 1: not quite everyone in the Labor Party was playing ball.

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Speaker 2: Yes. Prime Minister Anthony Alberanezi yesterday suspended Senator Fatima Payment

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Speaker 2: from Labour's caucus after she defied his leadership, vowing to

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Speaker 2: again cross the floor to back pro Palestinian motions. The

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Speaker 2: first term MP from Western Australia last week voted for

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Speaker 2: a Greens motion for the Senate to recognize Palestine as

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Speaker 2: a state. She was subsequently barred from attending this week's

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Speaker 2: Corks meeting. Yesterday, she doubled down on that one. She

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Speaker 2: told the ABC she had received the cold shoulder from

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Speaker 2: some colleagues as she more or less invited the Greens

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Speaker 2: to continue moving pro Palestinian motions, thus denying her party again.

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Speaker 2: The second act of defiance earned her a red card

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Speaker 2: from the Parliamentary Labor Party, thus taking some of the

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Speaker 2: lime light off the tax cuts and welfare payment increases

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Speaker 2: arriving today. Apparently the Prime Minister is not impressed.

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Speaker 1: I can't imagine he would be. No now, of course, Sean.

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Speaker 1: It was the end of the financial year. How did

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Speaker 1: the market end off on Friday? And what's it mean

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Speaker 1: for the full fiscal year if you were to extrapolate

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Speaker 1: that for the full twelve months?

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Speaker 2: Ah, no extrapolation needed, Michael. Just check it out. What

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Speaker 2: it is this in pix two hundred. You were thinking forward,

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Speaker 2: so weren't you?

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Speaker 1: Yes? I was, Sean, Yeah, thank you for thank you

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Speaker 1: for rescuing it is you know, sometimes you just go

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Speaker 1: I don't know if I've used the right word there.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to roll with it and hope nobody notices.

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Speaker 2: And you did, yes, you did notice, thank you, So

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Speaker 2: I normally did that. This s in PAX two hundred

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Speaker 2: closed up slightly on Friday to seven thousand, seven hundred

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Speaker 2: and sixty seven point five points seven seven six seven

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Speaker 2: point five points, meaning for the full year, the benchmark

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Speaker 2: index finished up eight percent. Winners and losers for the

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Speaker 2: last financial year, well, it was the tech stocks that

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Speaker 2: had to standout twenty twenty four fiscal year, with the

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Speaker 2: technology index up twenty nine percent, financials jumped twenty three percent.

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Speaker 2: That's still pretty good. The consumer discretionary index was up

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Speaker 2: nearly twenty percent, and the real estate investment trusts index

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Speaker 2: was up seventeen percent. While the technology stocks did well

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Speaker 2: on the back of AI and data centers that sort

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Speaker 2: of stuff, the next three sectors, the financials, consumer discretionary,

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Speaker 2: and reads did well because of expectations that interest rates

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Speaker 2: would fall. Ironically, it didn't actually happen last financial year,

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Speaker 2: and in fact, I'm not even sure that's going to

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Speaker 2: happen this financial year. In the actual fact, Michael, interest

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Speaker 2: rates went up last financial year. But let's just park

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Speaker 2: that the worst performing sectors last year were consumer staples

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Speaker 2: and energy. Their respective indices were down seven percent. The

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Speaker 2: Materials index finished the year down six percent. Turn to

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Speaker 2: the currency market, Michael, I know you're excited about this one.

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Speaker 1: I'm literally beside myself. They're not literally actually, I'm figuring

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Speaker 1: it's beside my se I've done it again. I'm not

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Speaker 1: having a good day, Sean.

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Speaker 2: The Aussie dollar finished the year at sixty six point

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Speaker 2: seven US sins. Let me tell you where it started, Michael,

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Speaker 2: finished at sixty six point seven cents. It started at

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Speaker 2: sixty six point seven cents. Yep, it went nowhere.

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Speaker 1: So hang on. But there wasn't even much movement through

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Speaker 1: the rest of the year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's true. It traded in this really

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Speaker 2: narrow range. So it got almost to sixty nine US

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Speaker 2: cents last July. Not quite. It dipped under sixty three

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Speaker 2: US cents in October, but mostly it's been that sixty

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Speaker 2: five to sixty six cent range. Now we've discussed on this.

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Speaker 2: My first of a journalism job was writing in the

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Speaker 2: Cinney Morning Herald the report about what the Aussie dollar did.

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Speaker 2: Could maybe it's been twelve months explaining that the Aussie

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Speaker 2: dollar did nothing.

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Speaker 1: Very very little, and one of the highlights is all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden when it jumps by half a cent

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Speaker 1: and oh my god, this is crazy.

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Speaker 2: Hold the front page page. That's exactly a right. Yeah, anyway,

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Speaker 2: Aussie dolum ended where it started literally.

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Speaker 1: Now Sewan immediately after the show. It is a great

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Speaker 1: interview you have today. You're speaking with doctor Shane Oliver,

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Speaker 1: chief economist at AMP.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it's the beginning of the financial year. That's what

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Speaker 2: we've been talking about. So we asked Shane about his

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Speaker 2: nine tips that he's learned over forty years of investing,

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Speaker 2: and Sane, as always, communicates them very clearly, very sensible

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Speaker 2: tips and given he's got forty years of knowledge under

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Speaker 2: his belf they're just fantastic things. I mean, many people

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Speaker 2: would do them anyway, but they're just great reminders some

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Speaker 2: of us, you know, you think, oh yeah, I should

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Speaker 2: have thought about that twenty years ago. Anyway, it's well

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Speaker 2: worth a listen if you're interested in investing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it is a really good interview. It's coming up

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Speaker 1: after the show now checking international markets. Thanks for blue

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Speaker 1: Chip Communication, the experts helping financial services companies, market, communicate

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Speaker 1: and grow, Visit blue chip communication, dot com, dot AU.

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Speaker 2: What's happening, Sean, Well, most sensible countries in the world

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Speaker 2: don't have a financial year end of thirty June, so

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Speaker 2: there's much less excitement about what's going on. We don't

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Speaker 2: have Ned Flanders waking up wanting to do his tax

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Speaker 2: returns or anything at the moment. Over the weekend, both

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Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred and tech heavy Nasdaq

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Speaker 2: closed lower after new data shows the Federal Reserves favored

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Speaker 2: inflation measure was unchanged in May for the first half

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Speaker 2: of twenty twenty four, so half the financial year. In

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Speaker 2: the US, the S and P five hundred added fifteen

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Speaker 2: point one percent. The nasdack was up twenty percent, and

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Speaker 2: Vidio is a big part of that. That is quite

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Speaker 2: the rally. I mean, imagine if you double that, techtocks

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Speaker 2: will be up forty percent. Wow. Oil prices are training

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Speaker 2: around eighty five US dollars a battle. They're up a

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Speaker 2: bit this year. Michael Goal's fetching around twenty three twenty

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Speaker 2: six US dollars announce. I think that's all I'm going

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Speaker 2: to say about the end of financial year.

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Speaker 1: You're done.

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Speaker 2: I'm done. It's exciting. I think I'm done. I don't know.

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Speaker 2: We'll there we go.

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Speaker 1: That's a good rap, a good rap. We'll be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business

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Speaker 1: news shown. Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has approved A and

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Speaker 1: z's four point nine billion dollar acquisition of sun Corps

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Speaker 1: banking business. It's nearly two years after the deal was

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Speaker 1: first proposed.

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Speaker 2: Ay and Z chief executive Shane Elliott said the deal

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Speaker 2: will make A and Z a tougher competitor with rivals

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Speaker 2: Commonwealth Bank, Westpac and National Australia Bank. It will be

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Speaker 2: the biggest merger in banking since Commonwealth Bank took out

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Speaker 2: Bank West during the global financial crisis back in two

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Speaker 2: thousand and eight. The A and Z Suncorp deal was

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Speaker 2: initially knocked backed by the Competition watchdog in August last year,

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Speaker 2: that decision was overturned by the Australian Competition Tribunal. The

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Speaker 2: Treasurer on Fridays of the deal was in the national interest,

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Speaker 2: but he put some conditions on the merger. A and

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Speaker 2: Z won't be able to close any regional branches anywhere

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Speaker 2: in Australia for three years, and the government wants A

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Speaker 2: and Z to make every effort to join Australia Posts

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Speaker 2: banking service. Currently, it's the only one of the big

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Speaker 2: four banks that doesn't allow banking through the Aussie Post outlets. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: plenty of work has already been done on this one,

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Speaker 2: because the two companies are targeting a July thirty one

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Speaker 2: completion date. A Z's share price was down slightly on Friday,

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Speaker 2: sun Corps rose nearly four percent.

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Speaker 1: Sean it looks like all the talk of interest rate

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Speaker 1: hikes might have spooked buyers a little over the weekend,

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Speaker 1: with a preliminary clearance rate for auctions across the country

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Speaker 1: coming in at seventy percent. That's down two point four

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Speaker 1: percentage points from a week ago.

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Speaker 2: There was also a drop in the number of auctions.

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Speaker 2: According to core Logic. Melbourne's preliminary clearance rate came in

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Speaker 2: at sixty eight point two percent, Sydney was seventy two percent,

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Speaker 2: was actually higher than a week ago, Adelaide eighty two percent,

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Speaker 2: Brisbane a touch under sixty three percent. Basically, the winter

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Speaker 2: slowdowns kicked in, which is kind of normal, though you

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Speaker 2: do wonder about all that talk of great hikes last week.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure that didn't help things. Michael, I can't. I

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Speaker 2: have to go through I said I wouldn't do an

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Speaker 2: end of the financial year thing.

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Speaker 1: But you're going to go on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Housing market, well, Perth led the way last year.

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Speaker 2: Dwelling values on average, according to core Logic, up twenty

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Speaker 2: four percent.

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Speaker 1: In one year. That is extraordinary.

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Speaker 2: Nah, it's ridiculous. Brisbane was sixteen percent, Adelaide's fifteen percent.

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Speaker 2: They're extraordinary. Sydney was probably not more normal at six percent,

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Speaker 2: but even that's that's kind of well above inflation, so

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Speaker 2: it's pretty good. Darwin and Canberra were just over two percent,

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Speaker 2: Melbourne was one point three percent. Hobart dwelling values were

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Speaker 2: actually flat for the last financially, actually they declined at

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Speaker 2: zero point one percent, so officially they went backwards. But

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Speaker 2: certainly it is the story of Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane

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Speaker 2: taking off, Sydney doing okay, the rest, Darwin, Canberra, Melbourne

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Speaker 2: and Hobart not so well.

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Speaker 1: That Perth number is just amazing. Now, Insurance Group IAG

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Speaker 1: has entered into strategic deals with three overseas global reinsurers

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Speaker 1: to improve its financial stability against claims related to unpredictable

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Speaker 1: extreme weather events.

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Speaker 2: This is all a bit complicated, but reinsurance is basically

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Speaker 2: insurance for the insurers. So insurance companies around the world

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Speaker 2: all get together, so we're going to ensure each other

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Speaker 2: so that we share the cost. The deals that IAG

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Speaker 2: has done over the next five years provides up to

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Speaker 2: six hundred and eighty million dollars of additional protection that annually,

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Speaker 2: and not to two point eight billion dollars over the

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Speaker 2: entire five year period. Basically, it allows IAG to put

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Speaker 2: a limit on how much it would have to pay

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Speaker 2: out if there was a natural disaster. Everyone likes that.

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Speaker 2: IDEA Chief executive Nicolkin said the agreements will help provide

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Speaker 2: greater certainty over natural perals such as extreme weather events,

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Speaker 2: particularly as they become more frequent and severe. Certainly, shareholders

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Speaker 2: like the IDEA. Its share price closed up seven percent

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Speaker 2: on Friday.

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Speaker 1: Meta, owner of Instagram and Facebook, has threatened to block

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Speaker 1: news from its platforms in Australia and stop local users

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Speaker 1: from sharing links to news articles if the government decides

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Speaker 1: to force the social media giant to negotiate payments with

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Speaker 1: news organizations. It feels like we've been here before, Shawn.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we did this in twenty twenty one. Now, this

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Speaker 2: move is an escalation in the dispute between Meta and

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Speaker 2: the government and local media companies. It was reignited in March,

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Speaker 2: with Meta said it wouldn't renew its existing deals with

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Speaker 2: news organizations. Under the News Media Bargaining Code, designated digital

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Speaker 2: platforms are required to enter into commercial deals with media

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Speaker 2: outlets or face fines of up to ten percent of

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Speaker 2: their local revenue. Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones has to decide

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Speaker 2: which digital platforms to designate under the code. Now, if

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Speaker 2: Meta is designated under the code, then it well as

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Speaker 2: its local boss mea garlic total parliamentary committee on Friday.

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Speaker 2: All options are on the table. That could mean Meta

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Speaker 2: permanently blocking news now. It's done it in Canada after

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Speaker 2: a similar battle to force it to pay for content.

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Speaker 2: So it's not a veiled threat. It actually could do it.

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Speaker 1: And in a related story, Sean nine Entertainments will cut

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Speaker 1: around two hundred jobs as a result of a weaker

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Speaker 1: advertising market and the end of that previous content deal

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Speaker 1: with Meta.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so between seventy and ninety positions will be made

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Speaker 2: redundant across its publishing business that runs the Sad Morning

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Speaker 2: Herald The Age. In this training financial review, there will

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Speaker 2: be some cuts within television, news and current affairs. The

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Speaker 2: remainder will come from corporate and digital. Group has around

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Speaker 2: five thousand staff. The job cuts represent about four percent

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Speaker 2: of the workforce.

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Speaker 1: Okay, turning to international news. It is a big week

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Speaker 1: in Europe for elections sewn, with France going to the

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Speaker 1: polls today, Australia time and the Brits voting at the

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Speaker 1: end of the week. This is massive.

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Speaker 2: It is in France. It's the first round of polls

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Speaker 2: that are underway as we speak. The far right party

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Speaker 2: of Marine La penn is expected to win ahead of

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Speaker 2: a broad left wing alliance called New Popular Front. In third,

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Speaker 2: according to the polls, is President Emmanuel mccron's Centrist block.

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Speaker 2: Now the top two go to a second ballot later

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Speaker 2: in the week, and at this point it looks like

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Speaker 2: Macron's party is going to miss that. A second ballot

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Speaker 2: between the two leading parties occurs next weekend. The winner

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Speaker 2: becomes Prime Minister. Mccron remains as president until twenty twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: But if it all goes as the polls suggest, the

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Speaker 2: right wing party national rally it wins. It's party chief

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Speaker 2: is a guy called Jordan Bardella, who is Marine La

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Speaker 2: Penn's t twenty eight year old protege. Absolutely no governing experience,

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Speaker 2: but he could well become prime minister in what's known

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Speaker 2: in French as a well I'm not going to have

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Speaker 2: the accent here, but the cohabitation is the word coavitation

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Speaker 2: with Emmanuel Macron. That would make running the country very,

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Speaker 2: very challenging, and that looks like the most likely outcome

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Speaker 2: as we stand here today. Then on Thursday, UK time

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Speaker 2: the Britz vote. According to the polls, the governing Conservatives,

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Speaker 2: led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will be slaughtered, absolutely

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Speaker 2: wiped out by Labor. The new prime Minister will be

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Speaker 2: a guy called Sir Kia Starmer.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it certainly looks pretty likely that it's going to

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Speaker 1: go that way. I mean, stranger things have happened, but

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Speaker 1: be pretty unlikely.

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Speaker 2: Right, not many now?

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Speaker 1: One last one shown a big one. Nike, the world's

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Speaker 1: largest sportswear company, has downgraded its earnings outlook on the

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Speaker 1: back of waning demand for its sneakers and apparel.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the owner of Jordan and Converse apparel said revenue

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Speaker 2: is to climbed rather than expected growth of about two percent.

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Speaker 2: Chairs filled by twenty percent over the weekend. It actually

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Speaker 2: dropped seventeen percent over the past twelve months. Ahead of

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Speaker 2: that anyway, Nike executives blame to slay down in part

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Speaker 2: on lifestyle brands including air Force one and Nike Dunks,

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Speaker 2: which basically just aren't selling as well. Most of them

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Speaker 2: sales are now online, but they're not selling like they did.

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Speaker 2: Their lifestyle category sales fell, in fact, for the first

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Speaker 2: time since it started the pandemic. It's added urgency to

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Speaker 2: Nike's efforts to speed up product development. There's also plenty

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Speaker 2: of new competitors, so on Holding Ag and Hokker running shoes.

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Speaker 2: They're apparently doing very well. Nike's promised to prioritize sports,

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Speaker 2: new products and wholesale partners all right.

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Speaker 1: Now. Up next Sean, we have Fear and Greed the

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Speaker 1: week ahead, featuring our resident economist Stephen could cool us.

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Speaker 2: Massive week This week. We've got lots of partial bits

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Speaker 2: of data like retail sales and building approvals, plenty for

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Speaker 2: Steven to get his teeth into. We also talk about

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Speaker 2: those inflation numbers last week and we're at with interest rates.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it is a good one. And then after that

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Speaker 1: we have the Fear and Greed Daily interview with amp's

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Speaker 1: doctor Shane Oliver.

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Speaker 2: Shane's nine tips that he's learned from trying to look

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Speaker 2: at the market for forty years, well worth a list

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Speaker 2: in that one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it certainly is coming up next in the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed

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Speaker 1: dot com dot au, which is also where you can

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Speaker 1: sign up for the free weekly newsletter which will be

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Speaker 1: out midweek on Wednesday morning mid morning. Always full of

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Speaker 1: great stuff, plenty of opinions and plenty of views on

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Speaker 1: the news of the week. Thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Monday, the first of July twenty twenty four. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. Michael Thompson. That

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Speaker 1: was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.