Speaker 1: From Schwartz Media.
Speaker 2: I'm Ruby Jones.
Speaker 1: This is seven am. On the streets of Damascus. Uniforms
Speaker 1: of Syrian army soldiers were strewn across the pavement as
Speaker 1: soldiers quickly changed into civilian clothes and fled the capital.
Speaker 1: It was a sign of the speed at which the
Speaker 1: rebel forces took over the country, triggering the end of
Speaker 1: the shah Alisad's brutal regime after thirteen years of civil war.
Speaker 1: As celebrations spread, the Syrian people faced the task of
Speaker 1: rebuilding a country now in the hands of rebel groups. Today.
Speaker 1: Middle East correspondent for the Economist Greg Carlstrom on Syria's
Speaker 1: path forward and the implications for an increasingly unstable region.
Speaker 1: It's Thursday, December twelfth, So it seems like almost out
Speaker 1: of nowhere, the Assad regime in Syria has fallen, and
Speaker 1: the scenes in Damascus have been incredible to watch people
Speaker 1: toppling statues, mass celebrations. It all seems to have occurred
Speaker 1: at a remarkable speed. So can you talk me through
Speaker 1: the last week or so in Syria?
Speaker 2: Remarkable? Really, This is a war that has gone on
Speaker 2: for thirteen years and then it came to its conclusion
Speaker 2: in less than thirteen days.
Speaker 3: The more than decade old civil war in Syria appears
Speaker 3: to be reigniting, as rebel fighters breached Aleppo, Syria's second
Speaker 3: largest city, following a surprise large scale offensive this week.
Speaker 2: There was a rebel offensive that began in northwestern Syria
Speaker 2: on November twenty seventh. It was led by a group
Speaker 2: called Hayat Tahirasham. They started what they said was meant
Speaker 2: to be a limited offense to push back the Syrian
Speaker 2: regime in northwest Syria. But at each stop along the
Speaker 2: way they found that regime troops just melted away. So
Speaker 2: the rebels reached Aleppo, Syria's second city. The regime didn't
Speaker 2: defend it. They pushed south to Hama, the next major
Speaker 2: city to the south. Again there was no real defense
Speaker 2: and they just kept going.
Speaker 1: And then how did the capital Damascus fall?
Speaker 2: There was a bit of a race for the capital
Speaker 2: on Saturday night as these rebels from the south reached
Speaker 2: some of the southern suburbs of Damascus, and there were
Speaker 2: these very moving scenes in places like de Roya, which
Speaker 2: was a suburb of Damascus ten years ago that was
Speaker 2: subject to a brutal years long siege by the regime.
Speaker 2: People ended up eating grass because there was nothing else
Speaker 2: to eat. They came out into the streets. They welcomed
Speaker 2: these rebel groups. They tore down statues of the posters
Speaker 2: of the president, and that was repeated over and over
Speaker 2: in the belt of Sourb surrounding Damascus.
Speaker 4: Henly hen.
Speaker 3: This man said they had been waiting for this day
Speaker 3: for fifty years, adding that they had been living in
Speaker 3: what he described as a prison, a quote big prison
Speaker 3: called Syria.
Speaker 2: Hts reached the city uh The Syrian prime minister put
Speaker 2: out a videotape statement saying that he was still in
Speaker 2: the country and he was prepared to hand over power.
Speaker 2: There was no word from us at himself. He left
Speaker 2: that job to his prime minister. The Syrian army command
Speaker 2: told soldiers that the regime had fallen, and so they
Speaker 2: abandoned their posts, and people in Damascus said the streets
Speaker 2: were just lined with discarded Syrian army uniforms. People had
Speaker 2: taken off their uniforms and thrown them on the on
Speaker 2: the street and gone home. And by Sunday morning a
Speaker 2: celebratory mood in the capitol. People came out to break
Speaker 2: into the presidential palace to look through Bashara Us on
Speaker 2: DVD collection, to do things that just two weeks ago
Speaker 2: would have seemed unimaginable for so many Syrians. The Syrian
Speaker 2: regime had simply collapsed.
Speaker 1: Okay, well, tell me a bit more about the rebels
Speaker 1: who are now in control of the country and who's
Speaker 1: leading them.
Speaker 2: HTS. This main group is an Islamist group al Qaeda's
Speaker 2: one time affiliate in Syria, but it broke with al
Speaker 2: Qaeda in twenty sixteen twenty seventeen and has become a
Speaker 2: much more moderate entity. In recent years, HTS has been
Speaker 2: running Idlib province in northwestern Syria, and so they set
Speaker 2: up what they called the Salvation Government. And in some
Speaker 2: ways this rebel government was better than the central government
Speaker 2: in Damascus. It provided better basic services, you know, the
Speaker 2: electricity stayed on more regularly in Idlib than it did
Speaker 2: in Damascus. The economy was growing more in Ita Lib
Speaker 2: than in Dabascus. And they did this with help from Turkey,
Speaker 2: which provided some protection for these rebel held areas. But
Speaker 2: it was also, especially in the past couple of years,
Speaker 2: and increasingly authoritarian government. Many critics of Abu Muhammad al Jolani,
Speaker 2: the leader of HTS have disappeared into jails in northwestern Syria.
Speaker 2: So there's a mix of feelings right now. I think
Speaker 2: when you talk to many Syrians, people of course thrilled,
Speaker 2: overjoyed in shock seeing the Assad regime gone, some of
Speaker 2: them hopeful about HTS, but some of them skeptical both
Speaker 2: that this group really has broken away from its more
Speaker 2: extreme Islamist roots and also worried that it will turn
Speaker 2: out to be its own flavor of authoritarian regime in Dabascus.
Speaker 1: And a lot of that skepticism is around the motivations
Speaker 1: of the leader of the rebels, Abu Mohammad Ajulani. Can
Speaker 1: you tell me a bit more about him?
Speaker 2: He's had the remarkable journey.
Speaker 4: You you are still a specially designated global terrorists by
Speaker 4: the United States with a ten million dollar bounty on
Speaker 4: your head. Your group is a prescribed terrorist organization by
Speaker 4: the United States, by the UN, by the EU and others.
Speaker 3: I say to people, don't judge by words, but by actions.
Speaker 2: I believe the reality speaks for itself. He is someone
Speaker 2: who decades ago went to Iraq to fight the Americans,
Speaker 2: eventually came back to Syria, became involved in the fight
Speaker 2: against the Ussad regime in Syria, had a falling out
Speaker 2: with a colleague of his, Abba Baker Baghdadi, about ten
Speaker 2: or eleven years ago. Like that, he of course went
Speaker 2: on to lead Islamic State. Jolani went on to lead
Speaker 2: a group that was then called the Nusra Front, which
Speaker 2: at times clashed with Islamic State, and that break from
Speaker 2: Islamic State and then subsequently his break from al Qaeda
Speaker 2: did a lot to put him in the position that
Speaker 2: he is in today. And he's someone that for years
Speaker 2: when you spoke to people who know him in Syria,
Speaker 2: people who deal with him in Syria, they've always said
Speaker 2: that he's had his eye on eventually going back to Damascus,
Speaker 2: that he wasn't content with just running a rebel held
Speaker 2: administration in northwestern Syria. That you know, he had designs
Speaker 2: on overthrowing the Ussel regime. Not many people took him
Speaker 2: seriously in recent years, but it turns out he built
Speaker 2: up a force in northwestern Syria that was able to
Speaker 2: do exactly that.
Speaker 1: And the regime, the Alisad family, they have been in
Speaker 1: parents Syria for more than fifty years. How do you
Speaker 1: think that history is going to remember them? Not?
Speaker 2: Well? You know, I think the main thing that they
Speaker 2: are going to be remembered for is these scenes over
Speaker 2: the past few days, these incredibly moving scenes of Syrians
Speaker 2: going into prisons like Saidnaya, the main prison outside of Damascus,
Speaker 2: where thousands, if not tens of thousands of people were held,
Speaker 2: and discovering these barbaric dungeons where people were held underground
Speaker 2: for years, for decades. There have been families who thought
Speaker 2: their loved ones died in prison many many years ago,
Speaker 2: who are only now discovering that their relatives are still alive.
Speaker 2: At the USAD regime ran an industrial scale torture machine,
Speaker 2: and I think that, above all else is going to
Speaker 2: be what he is remembered for, just the absolute brutality
Speaker 2: that both he and his father displayed towards Syrians. And
Speaker 2: for Bouchat, I think the fact that all of that
Speaker 2: over the past fifteen years was in service of keeping
Speaker 2: his regime in power for just a little while longer.
Speaker 2: But in the end, this regime collapsed under its own weight.
Speaker 2: Asad fled to Moscow, you know, forget standard fight. He
Speaker 2: didn't even say anything on his way out. He didn't
Speaker 2: even go over a message to his supporters, to his people.
Speaker 2: He just turned them round.
Speaker 1: After the break. How the fall of the Assad regime
Speaker 1: is tipping the balance of power in the Middle East.
Speaker 1: Greg I want to ask about some of Siria's closest
Speaker 1: neighbors and allies. It's surrounded by Lebanon, Iraq, Israel, and Turkey,
Speaker 1: and it's long been seen as an important country in
Speaker 1: US and Russian foreign policy. So who benefits the most
Speaker 1: from the fall of Asad.
Speaker 2: The biggest beneficiary I think is Turkey, which gave some
Speaker 2: support to HTS and then gave much more support to
Speaker 2: another group called the Syrian National Army in northern Syria.
Speaker 2: They are quite happy to see Asad gan. They will
Speaker 2: have a lot of influence in a post Asad Syria
Speaker 2: because it's likely that whoever comes to power will look
Speaker 2: favorably on the Turkish government. So Turkey has now gained
Speaker 2: a lot of influence in Syria and they will want
Speaker 2: to use that to try to push back the Syrian
Speaker 2: Democratic Forces, the mostly Kurdish militia that holds power in
Speaker 2: the northeast of Syria near the Turkish border. So they're
Speaker 2: looking at this as a win for them. I think
Speaker 2: the biggest loser is Iran, which of course counted Asad
Speaker 2: as one of its closest allies as a key link
Speaker 2: in its so called axis of resistance. This network of
Speaker 2: militias across the region. Not only has Iran now lost
Speaker 2: an ally in Asad, but they have lost a land
Speaker 2: route that they used to send weapons to Hesbalah in Lebanon.
Speaker 2: Many of those went across Syrian territory, and it's hard
Speaker 2: to imagine the next Syrian government being willing to let
Speaker 2: Iran use its territory in that way. So wins, which
Speaker 2: was already shrinking after the Israeli Hasabalda war over the
Speaker 2: past year, their influence has been further diminished.
Speaker 3: Meanwhile, Israel has carried out air strikes in the country.
Speaker 3: It targeted Syrian military facilities that have long possessed chemical
Speaker 3: weapons and long range missiles.
Speaker 2: Israel For Israel, it has over the past few days
Speaker 2: since the fall of US been carrying out very aggressive
Speaker 2: air strikes across Syria aimed at what it says are
Speaker 2: military targets, sites that used to be affiliated with Syria's
Speaker 2: chemical weapons program, or sites where the Syrian regime had
Speaker 2: long range missiles or other advanced weapons. Israeli troops have
Speaker 2: also gone into Syria and seized patches of land. The
Speaker 2: Israeli argument is that they don't know who's going to
Speaker 2: come to power in Damascus, and they're concerned about that,
Speaker 2: and they want to make sure that this next government
Speaker 2: is not going to be able to threaten Israel. Now,
Speaker 2: there are some voices in Israel who are arguing that
Speaker 2: all of this is unnecessary fact counterproductive, that no rebel
Speaker 2: group over the past thirteen years in Syria has shown
Speaker 2: any interest in fighting Israel. They've only wanted to fight
Speaker 2: the regime. And there are some people in Israel arguing
Speaker 2: that by starting on this very adversarial note with the
Speaker 2: next Syrian government, Israel is spoiling a potential opportunity to
Speaker 2: have a better relationship with Syria. But those arguments seem
Speaker 2: to be going unheeded within the top levels of Israel's
Speaker 2: political and military establishment.
Speaker 1: So there's still many competing interests playing out. And it's
Speaker 1: in this context that the rebels have to actually establish
Speaker 1: a new system of governments in Syria. What do we
Speaker 1: know about their plans?
Speaker 2: Very little, to be honest, I think you know, you
Speaker 2: can look at HTS and this Salvation government. They ran
Speaker 2: in Idlib in the northwest, which again was a reasonably
Speaker 2: competent government, but they are going to struggle to expand
Speaker 2: that government to cover all of Syria. Just don't have
Speaker 2: the capacity to do that. And Syria is a much
Speaker 2: more complicated, much more diverse place than Idlib province alone.
Speaker 2: So they are going to have to find some way
Speaker 2: to work with other factions. To work with, for example,
Speaker 2: rebels in the south who are not part of HTS,
Speaker 2: who are not really in some cases part of any
Speaker 2: organized group, who just have their own localized grievances with
Speaker 2: the ASUD regime. They will have to find a way
Speaker 2: to work with the Kurds in the northeast. They will
Speaker 2: have to find a way to co opt the existing
Speaker 2: state institutions in Syria, which I don't think they want
Speaker 2: to tear down altogether. So what we've seen over the
Speaker 2: past few days is a series of statements and declarations
Speaker 2: from HTS sort of all saying the right things about
Speaker 2: how they and their fighters should behave They've told their
Speaker 2: fighters not to loot, to protect public institutions and private property.
Speaker 2: They've tried to reassure women that no one will tell
Speaker 2: them how to dress. There won't be any compulsory Islamic
Speaker 2: dress code impos. Yesterday they issued a general amnesty for
Speaker 2: Syrian soldiers who were conscripted into the army. All of
Speaker 2: that is good, All of that is exactly what many
Speaker 2: Syrians want to hear right now. So the initial signs
Speaker 2: are encouraging. But what sort of political system they're going
Speaker 2: to set up, how they're going to share power with
Speaker 2: other factions in Syria, all of that, I think it's
Speaker 2: much too early to say what they're planning to do.
Speaker 1: How would you describe the national mood in Syria right now?
Speaker 2: Joy and shock? You know, I think so many of
Speaker 2: the Syrians that I've spoken to over the past few days,
Speaker 2: their initial reaction was just disbelief. This is something that
Speaker 2: no one thought would happen. You know. People had given up.
Speaker 2: People inside of Syria had given up on the idea
Speaker 2: that Asad was going to be overthrown. People outside of Syria,
Speaker 2: people who were displaced, who became refugees during the Syrian
Speaker 2: Civil War, never thought they were going to be able
Speaker 2: to go home and to wake up one morning and
Speaker 2: find that this regime that had been such a fixture
Speaker 2: of Syrian life, such an oppressive fixture of Syrian life
Speaker 2: for fifty four years had simply melted away in the
Speaker 2: middle of then A. People were in disbelief and I
Speaker 2: think it's a very very complicated mix of emotions right
Speaker 2: now for so many people.
Speaker 1: Greg, thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 2: Thank you.
Speaker 1: Also in the news today, Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi has
Speaker 1: pledged to spend one billion dollars on early education if
Speaker 1: Labor wins the next election. The pitch includes expanding childcare
Speaker 1: centers and removing the activity test so that all families
Speaker 1: earning up to five hundred and thirty thousand dollars can
Speaker 1: access a subsidy for three days a week. The Prime
Speaker 1: Minister says the coming budget update will show more than
Speaker 1: three billion dollars in childcare spending over four years, including
Speaker 1: a pay increase for early educators. And in New Zealand,
Speaker 1: representatives of more than eighty Maori tribes are asking King
Speaker 1: Charles to intervene in Parliament of the government's proposed changes
Speaker 1: to the Treaty of Waitangi. Critics say the proposed amendments
Speaker 1: will roll back Maori rights, and the Collective of Maori
Speaker 1: tribal leaders are asking that the King ensure the government
Speaker 1: does not quote diminish the Crown's honor by breaching the
Speaker 1: terms of the historic treaty. I'm Ruby Jones. This is
Speaker 1: seven am. See you tomorrow.