WEBVTT - The fall of Assad: What's next for Syria?

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<v Speaker 1>From Schwartz Media.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Ruby Jones.

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<v Speaker 1>This is seven am. On the streets of Damascus. Uniforms

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<v Speaker 1>of Syrian army soldiers were strewn across the pavement as

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<v Speaker 1>soldiers quickly changed into civilian clothes and fled the capital.

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<v Speaker 1>It was a sign of the speed at which the

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<v Speaker 1>rebel forces took over the country, triggering the end of

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<v Speaker 1>the shah Alisad's brutal regime after thirteen years of civil war.

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<v Speaker 1>As celebrations spread, the Syrian people faced the task of

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<v Speaker 1>rebuilding a country now in the hands of rebel groups. Today.

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<v Speaker 1>Middle East correspondent for the Economist Greg Carlstrom on Syria's

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<v Speaker 1>path forward and the implications for an increasingly unstable region.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Thursday, December twelfth, So it seems like almost out

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<v Speaker 1>of nowhere, the Assad regime in Syria has fallen, and

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<v Speaker 1>the scenes in Damascus have been incredible to watch people

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<v Speaker 1>toppling statues, mass celebrations. It all seems to have occurred

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<v Speaker 1>at a remarkable speed. So can you talk me through

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<v Speaker 1>the last week or so in Syria?

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<v Speaker 2>Remarkable? Really, This is a war that has gone on

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<v Speaker 2>for thirteen years and then it came to its conclusion

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<v Speaker 2>in less than thirteen days.

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<v Speaker 3>The more than decade old civil war in Syria appears

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<v Speaker 3>to be reigniting, as rebel fighters breached Aleppo, Syria's second

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<v Speaker 3>largest city, following a surprise large scale offensive this week.

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<v Speaker 2>There was a rebel offensive that began in northwestern Syria

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<v Speaker 2>on November twenty seventh. It was led by a group

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<v Speaker 2>called Hayat Tahirasham. They started what they said was meant

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<v Speaker 2>to be a limited offense to push back the Syrian

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<v Speaker 2>regime in northwest Syria. But at each stop along the

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<v Speaker 2>way they found that regime troops just melted away. So

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<v Speaker 2>the rebels reached Aleppo, Syria's second city. The regime didn't

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<v Speaker 2>defend it. They pushed south to Hama, the next major

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<v Speaker 2>city to the south. Again there was no real defense

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<v Speaker 2>and they just kept going.

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<v Speaker 1>And then how did the capital Damascus fall?

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<v Speaker 2>There was a bit of a race for the capital

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<v Speaker 2>on Saturday night as these rebels from the south reached

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<v Speaker 2>some of the southern suburbs of Damascus, and there were

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<v Speaker 2>these very moving scenes in places like de Roya, which

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<v Speaker 2>was a suburb of Damascus ten years ago that was

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<v Speaker 2>subject to a brutal years long siege by the regime.

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<v Speaker 2>People ended up eating grass because there was nothing else

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<v Speaker 2>to eat. They came out into the streets. They welcomed

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<v Speaker 2>these rebel groups. They tore down statues of the posters

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<v Speaker 2>of the president, and that was repeated over and over

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<v Speaker 2>in the belt of Sourb surrounding Damascus.

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<v Speaker 4>Henly hen.

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<v Speaker 3>This man said they had been waiting for this day

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<v Speaker 3>for fifty years, adding that they had been living in

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<v Speaker 3>what he described as a prison, a quote big prison

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<v Speaker 3>called Syria.

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<v Speaker 2>Hts reached the city uh The Syrian prime minister put

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<v Speaker 2>out a videotape statement saying that he was still in

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<v Speaker 2>the country and he was prepared to hand over power.

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<v Speaker 2>There was no word from us at himself. He left

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<v Speaker 2>that job to his prime minister. The Syrian army command

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<v Speaker 2>told soldiers that the regime had fallen, and so they

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<v Speaker 2>abandoned their posts, and people in Damascus said the streets

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<v Speaker 2>were just lined with discarded Syrian army uniforms. People had

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<v Speaker 2>taken off their uniforms and thrown them on the on

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<v Speaker 2>the street and gone home. And by Sunday morning a

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<v Speaker 2>celebratory mood in the capitol. People came out to break

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<v Speaker 2>into the presidential palace to look through Bashara Us on

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<v Speaker 2>DVD collection, to do things that just two weeks ago

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<v Speaker 2>would have seemed unimaginable for so many Syrians. The Syrian

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<v Speaker 2>regime had simply collapsed.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, well, tell me a bit more about the rebels

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<v Speaker 1>who are now in control of the country and who's

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<v Speaker 1>leading them.

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<v Speaker 2>HTS. This main group is an Islamist group al Qaeda's

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<v Speaker 2>one time affiliate in Syria, but it broke with al

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<v Speaker 2>Qaeda in twenty sixteen twenty seventeen and has become a

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<v Speaker 2>much more moderate entity. In recent years, HTS has been

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<v Speaker 2>running Idlib province in northwestern Syria, and so they set

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<v Speaker 2>up what they called the Salvation Government. And in some

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<v Speaker 2>ways this rebel government was better than the central government

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<v Speaker 2>in Damascus. It provided better basic services, you know, the

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<v Speaker 2>electricity stayed on more regularly in Idlib than it did

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<v Speaker 2>in Damascus. The economy was growing more in Ita Lib

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<v Speaker 2>than in Dabascus. And they did this with help from Turkey,

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<v Speaker 2>which provided some protection for these rebel held areas. But

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<v Speaker 2>it was also, especially in the past couple of years,

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<v Speaker 2>and increasingly authoritarian government. Many critics of Abu Muhammad al Jolani,

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<v Speaker 2>the leader of HTS have disappeared into jails in northwestern Syria.

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<v Speaker 2>So there's a mix of feelings right now. I think

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<v Speaker 2>when you talk to many Syrians, people of course thrilled,

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<v Speaker 2>overjoyed in shock seeing the Assad regime gone, some of

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<v Speaker 2>them hopeful about HTS, but some of them skeptical both

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<v Speaker 2>that this group really has broken away from its more

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<v Speaker 2>extreme Islamist roots and also worried that it will turn

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<v Speaker 2>out to be its own flavor of authoritarian regime in Dabascus.

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<v Speaker 1>And a lot of that skepticism is around the motivations

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<v Speaker 1>of the leader of the rebels, Abu Mohammad Ajulani. Can

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<v Speaker 1>you tell me a bit more about him?

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<v Speaker 2>He's had the remarkable journey.

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<v Speaker 4>You you are still a specially designated global terrorists by

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<v Speaker 4>the United States with a ten million dollar bounty on

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<v Speaker 4>your head. Your group is a prescribed terrorist organization by

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<v Speaker 4>the United States, by the UN, by the EU and others.

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<v Speaker 3>I say to people, don't judge by words, but by actions.

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<v Speaker 2>I believe the reality speaks for itself. He is someone

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<v Speaker 2>who decades ago went to Iraq to fight the Americans,

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<v Speaker 2>eventually came back to Syria, became involved in the fight

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<v Speaker 2>against the Ussad regime in Syria, had a falling out

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<v Speaker 2>with a colleague of his, Abba Baker Baghdadi, about ten

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<v Speaker 2>or eleven years ago. Like that, he of course went

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<v Speaker 2>on to lead Islamic State. Jolani went on to lead

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<v Speaker 2>a group that was then called the Nusra Front, which

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<v Speaker 2>at times clashed with Islamic State, and that break from

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<v Speaker 2>Islamic State and then subsequently his break from al Qaeda

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<v Speaker 2>did a lot to put him in the position that

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<v Speaker 2>he is in today. And he's someone that for years

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<v Speaker 2>when you spoke to people who know him in Syria,

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<v Speaker 2>people who deal with him in Syria, they've always said

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<v Speaker 2>that he's had his eye on eventually going back to Damascus,

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<v Speaker 2>that he wasn't content with just running a rebel held

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<v Speaker 2>administration in northwestern Syria. That you know, he had designs

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<v Speaker 2>on overthrowing the Ussel regime. Not many people took him

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<v Speaker 2>seriously in recent years, but it turns out he built

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<v Speaker 2>up a force in northwestern Syria that was able to

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<v Speaker 2>do exactly that.

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<v Speaker 1>And the regime, the Alisad family, they have been in

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<v Speaker 1>parents Syria for more than fifty years. How do you

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<v Speaker 1>think that history is going to remember them? Not?

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<v Speaker 2>Well? You know, I think the main thing that they

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<v Speaker 2>are going to be remembered for is these scenes over

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<v Speaker 2>the past few days, these incredibly moving scenes of Syrians

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<v Speaker 2>going into prisons like Saidnaya, the main prison outside of Damascus,

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<v Speaker 2>where thousands, if not tens of thousands of people were held,

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<v Speaker 2>and discovering these barbaric dungeons where people were held underground

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<v Speaker 2>for years, for decades. There have been families who thought

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<v Speaker 2>their loved ones died in prison many many years ago,

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<v Speaker 2>who are only now discovering that their relatives are still alive.

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<v Speaker 2>At the USAD regime ran an industrial scale torture machine,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think that, above all else is going to

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<v Speaker 2>be what he is remembered for, just the absolute brutality

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<v Speaker 2>that both he and his father displayed towards Syrians. And

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<v Speaker 2>for Bouchat, I think the fact that all of that

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<v Speaker 2>over the past fifteen years was in service of keeping

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<v Speaker 2>his regime in power for just a little while longer.

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<v Speaker 2>But in the end, this regime collapsed under its own weight.

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<v Speaker 2>Asad fled to Moscow, you know, forget standard fight. He

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<v Speaker 2>didn't even say anything on his way out. He didn't

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<v Speaker 2>even go over a message to his supporters, to his people.

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<v Speaker 2>He just turned them round.

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<v Speaker 1>After the break. How the fall of the Assad regime

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<v Speaker 1>is tipping the balance of power in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 1>Greg I want to ask about some of Siria's closest

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<v Speaker 1>neighbors and allies. It's surrounded by Lebanon, Iraq, Israel, and Turkey,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's long been seen as an important country in

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<v Speaker 1>US and Russian foreign policy. So who benefits the most

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<v Speaker 1>from the fall of Asad.

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<v Speaker 2>The biggest beneficiary I think is Turkey, which gave some

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<v Speaker 2>support to HTS and then gave much more support to

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<v Speaker 2>another group called the Syrian National Army in northern Syria.

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<v Speaker 2>They are quite happy to see Asad gan. They will

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<v Speaker 2>have a lot of influence in a post Asad Syria

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<v Speaker 2>because it's likely that whoever comes to power will look

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<v Speaker 2>favorably on the Turkish government. So Turkey has now gained

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of influence in Syria and they will want

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<v Speaker 2>to use that to try to push back the Syrian

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<v Speaker 2>Democratic Forces, the mostly Kurdish militia that holds power in

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<v Speaker 2>the northeast of Syria near the Turkish border. So they're

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<v Speaker 2>looking at this as a win for them. I think

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<v Speaker 2>the biggest loser is Iran, which of course counted Asad

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<v Speaker 2>as one of its closest allies as a key link

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<v Speaker 2>in its so called axis of resistance. This network of

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<v Speaker 2>militias across the region. Not only has Iran now lost

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<v Speaker 2>an ally in Asad, but they have lost a land

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<v Speaker 2>route that they used to send weapons to Hesbalah in Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 2>Many of those went across Syrian territory, and it's hard

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<v Speaker 2>to imagine the next Syrian government being willing to let

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<v Speaker 2>Iran use its territory in that way. So wins, which

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<v Speaker 2>was already shrinking after the Israeli Hasabalda war over the

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<v Speaker 2>past year, their influence has been further diminished.

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<v Speaker 3>Meanwhile, Israel has carried out air strikes in the country.

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<v Speaker 3>It targeted Syrian military facilities that have long possessed chemical

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<v Speaker 3>weapons and long range missiles.

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<v Speaker 2>Israel For Israel, it has over the past few days

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<v Speaker 2>since the fall of US been carrying out very aggressive

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<v Speaker 2>air strikes across Syria aimed at what it says are

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<v Speaker 2>military targets, sites that used to be affiliated with Syria's

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<v Speaker 2>chemical weapons program, or sites where the Syrian regime had

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<v Speaker 2>long range missiles or other advanced weapons. Israeli troops have

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<v Speaker 2>also gone into Syria and seized patches of land. The

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<v Speaker 2>Israeli argument is that they don't know who's going to

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<v Speaker 2>come to power in Damascus, and they're concerned about that,

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<v Speaker 2>and they want to make sure that this next government

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<v Speaker 2>is not going to be able to threaten Israel. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>there are some voices in Israel who are arguing that

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<v Speaker 2>all of this is unnecessary fact counterproductive, that no rebel

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<v Speaker 2>group over the past thirteen years in Syria has shown

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<v Speaker 2>any interest in fighting Israel. They've only wanted to fight

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<v Speaker 2>the regime. And there are some people in Israel arguing

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<v Speaker 2>that by starting on this very adversarial note with the

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<v Speaker 2>next Syrian government, Israel is spoiling a potential opportunity to

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<v Speaker 2>have a better relationship with Syria. But those arguments seem

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<v Speaker 2>to be going unheeded within the top levels of Israel's

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<v Speaker 2>political and military establishment.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's still many competing interests playing out. And it's

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<v Speaker 1>in this context that the rebels have to actually establish

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<v Speaker 1>a new system of governments in Syria. What do we

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<v Speaker 1>know about their plans?

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<v Speaker 2>Very little, to be honest, I think you know, you

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<v Speaker 2>can look at HTS and this Salvation government. They ran

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<v Speaker 2>in Idlib in the northwest, which again was a reasonably

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<v Speaker 2>competent government, but they are going to struggle to expand

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<v Speaker 2>that government to cover all of Syria. Just don't have

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<v Speaker 2>the capacity to do that. And Syria is a much

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<v Speaker 2>more complicated, much more diverse place than Idlib province alone.

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<v Speaker 2>So they are going to have to find some way

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<v Speaker 2>to work with other factions. To work with, for example,

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<v Speaker 2>rebels in the south who are not part of HTS,

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<v Speaker 2>who are not really in some cases part of any

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<v Speaker 2>organized group, who just have their own localized grievances with

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<v Speaker 2>the ASUD regime. They will have to find a way

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<v Speaker 2>to work with the Kurds in the northeast. They will

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<v Speaker 2>have to find a way to co opt the existing

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<v Speaker 2>state institutions in Syria, which I don't think they want

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<v Speaker 2>to tear down altogether. So what we've seen over the

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<v Speaker 2>past few days is a series of statements and declarations

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<v Speaker 2>from HTS sort of all saying the right things about

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<v Speaker 2>how they and their fighters should behave They've told their

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<v Speaker 2>fighters not to loot, to protect public institutions and private property.

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<v Speaker 2>They've tried to reassure women that no one will tell

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<v Speaker 2>them how to dress. There won't be any compulsory Islamic

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<v Speaker 2>dress code impos. Yesterday they issued a general amnesty for

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<v Speaker 2>Syrian soldiers who were conscripted into the army. All of

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<v Speaker 2>that is good, All of that is exactly what many

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<v Speaker 2>Syrians want to hear right now. So the initial signs

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<v Speaker 2>are encouraging. But what sort of political system they're going

0:14:15.679 --> 0:14:17.880
<v Speaker 2>to set up, how they're going to share power with

0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:22.040
<v Speaker 2>other factions in Syria, all of that, I think it's

0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:23.880
<v Speaker 2>much too early to say what they're planning to do.

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<v Speaker 1>How would you describe the national mood in Syria right now?

0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:34.000
<v Speaker 2>Joy and shock? You know, I think so many of

0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:37.480
<v Speaker 2>the Syrians that I've spoken to over the past few days,

0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:41.320
<v Speaker 2>their initial reaction was just disbelief. This is something that

0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:44.640
<v Speaker 2>no one thought would happen. You know. People had given up.

0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:46.920
<v Speaker 2>People inside of Syria had given up on the idea

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<v Speaker 2>that Asad was going to be overthrown. People outside of Syria,

0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:53.760
<v Speaker 2>people who were displaced, who became refugees during the Syrian

0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:56.240
<v Speaker 2>Civil War, never thought they were going to be able

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<v Speaker 2>to go home and to wake up one morning and

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<v Speaker 2>find that this regime that had been such a fixture

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<v Speaker 2>of Syrian life, such an oppressive fixture of Syrian life

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<v Speaker 2>for fifty four years had simply melted away in the

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<v Speaker 2>middle of then A. People were in disbelief and I

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<v Speaker 2>think it's a very very complicated mix of emotions right

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<v Speaker 2>now for so many people.

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<v Speaker 1>Greg, thank you so much for your time.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news today, Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi has

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<v Speaker 1>pledged to spend one billion dollars on early education if

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<v Speaker 1>Labor wins the next election. The pitch includes expanding childcare

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<v Speaker 1>centers and removing the activity test so that all families

0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:01.640
<v Speaker 1>earning up to five hundred and thirty thousand dollars can

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<v Speaker 1>access a subsidy for three days a week. The Prime

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<v Speaker 1>Minister says the coming budget update will show more than

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<v Speaker 1>three billion dollars in childcare spending over four years, including

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<v Speaker 1>a pay increase for early educators. And in New Zealand,

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<v Speaker 1>representatives of more than eighty Maori tribes are asking King

0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:23.600
<v Speaker 1>Charles to intervene in Parliament of the government's proposed changes

0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:27.400
<v Speaker 1>to the Treaty of Waitangi. Critics say the proposed amendments

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<v Speaker 1>will roll back Maori rights, and the Collective of Maori

0:16:30.440 --> 0:16:33.280
<v Speaker 1>tribal leaders are asking that the King ensure the government

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<v Speaker 1>does not quote diminish the Crown's honor by breaching the

0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:39.800
<v Speaker 1>terms of the historic treaty. I'm Ruby Jones. This is

0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:44.160
<v Speaker 1>seven am. See you tomorrow.