1 00:00:05,240 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed the week Ahead. I'm Sean Almer, 2 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:10,639 Speaker 1: and as always I'm joined by economist Stephen Cooculis. You'll 3 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 1: find herem at the Cook dot com, tg kouk dot 4 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: com and on X using the handle the Kirk. Stephen. 5 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:19,240 Speaker 2: Good morning and a good morning to you, Sean. 6 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:23,439 Speaker 1: What a week last week was. If you're interested in 7 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 1: employment markets, Wow, all sorts of news, mostly good news 8 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: really when it comes to the inflation front. 9 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 2: There was a lot of good news on that labor 10 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 2: market side, starting with the wage numbers, because of course 11 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 2: that's been a fear for well, I f were the 12 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 2: Reserve Bank and some others do we get that wage 13 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 2: price spiral. But the news from the wage price index 14 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 2: was an annual wages growth dropped to three point five percent, 15 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 2: so down from four point one. And there I use 16 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 2: the cliche which I'm good at the goldilocks level of 17 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 2: wages growth. So three and a half percent annual wages growth. 18 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 2: It's not too hot, it's not that inflation problem. Not 19 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 2: too cold. Workers are getting a bit of a pay rise, 20 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 2: and particularly in the context of the two point eight 21 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:07,400 Speaker 2: percent inflation reading which we've got, it was a good result. 22 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 2: It's one of those ones that if you were the 23 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 2: central banker, the government, and even the union movement and 24 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:15,399 Speaker 2: employers should be happy with a three and a half. 25 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 2: So that was really in the groove to be celebrated, 26 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:21,039 Speaker 2: I suppose. 27 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 1: And then the unemployment figure of four point one percent, 28 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 1: I mean that the labor market's still tight, using Sheeld 29 00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 1: Bullock's term. But well, I don't know. Maybe I'm just 30 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 1: looking for a goal, a sort of a silver lining here, Sean. 31 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 2: Do you know what I had a little bit of 32 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 2: look at this number, because it is a low result 33 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 2: compared with history. Do you know that there's only been 34 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 2: about two years in the last fifty that the unemployment 35 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 2: rate's been lower than four point one percent, So it's 36 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 2: an unusually And yes it's gone up from three and 37 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 2: a half percent, which we saw about a year year 38 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 2: and a half ago, as the economy has slowed down, 39 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 2: Yes it has. But if we can get through this 40 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 2: current period of cost of living crisis, the interestrate type cycle, 41 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 2: the inflation problems, and we have an unemployment rate that 42 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 2: sort of stabilizes in the low fours, you know, I 43 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 2: still think we're more inclined to get to four and 44 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 2: a half than stay at four point one. But you 45 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 2: just say I'm wrong and we get to four in 46 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 2: a quarter and we stay there. That is a great result. 47 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 2: And you know, maybe, just maybe the Reserve Bank might 48 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 2: have got this one right. 49 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 1: Surely not the other one. I like last week, I'm 50 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 1: always going on about what a miserable bunch consumers are. Well, 51 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 1: maybe they're just a little bit happier. 52 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:29,959 Speaker 2: Well, it feeds into this real wage increase, doesn't it. 53 00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 2: Because the consumer Sentiment index jump five percent in the month, 54 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,919 Speaker 2: and it's up fourteen one four percent from that low 55 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:38,959 Speaker 2: point a couple of months ago. It's still a little 56 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 2: bit on the pessimistic side, there's a few more pessimist 57 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 2: and optimists, but there's been an incredible lift in consumer sentiment. 58 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 2: And again, hard to pinpoint why we consumers are all 59 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:51,359 Speaker 2: of a sudden happy or say out, or whatever the 60 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:53,959 Speaker 2: case may be. But my hunch is that when you've 61 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 2: got real wages starting to increase, when you've seen you know, 62 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 2: things like the stock market you're testing record highs over 63 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 2: the last few weeks, and that's giving people a bit 64 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 2: of wealth and confidence, you've just got this sort of 65 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 2: situation where, yeah, real ways increase. Well's doing okay, Unemployment slow, 66 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 2: So I've got a job and I'm not in that 67 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 2: much fear of losing the job. Reasons to be cheerful 68 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 2: is the during the blockheads would say. 69 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 1: During the blockheads would say, I like that. I mean, 70 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 1: not a lot of information around, not a lot of 71 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 1: new data this week, But it's almost time for a pause, 72 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 1: only because we have got so much going on geopolitically 73 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 1: and so much new information from the sort of local 74 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: data as well. Kind of where are we up to? 75 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 1: Do you think in terms of the local economy. 76 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 2: Oh, this last few weeks, there's been a flood of news. 77 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 2: There's been central bank meetings left, right and center. US 78 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 2: presidential election obviously huge resulting is seeing that unfold, and 79 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 2: of course that'll take many, many months to unfold exactly 80 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 2: what the new Trump administration is going to be doing. 81 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 2: We've got to be some worn in first. So there's 82 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 2: a whole lot of issues going on around the world. 83 00:03:57,440 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 2: But I think this pause this week, when there's not 84 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 2: much new news domestically or internationally, is one where I 85 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 2: think the markets who have been exuberant, the stock markets, booming, 86 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 2: bond markets have been all over the place with this inflation, 87 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 2: fear from the tariffs from the US, A bit of 88 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 2: a consolidation is not a bad thing. It's a chance 89 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,719 Speaker 2: for policymakers as economists to just sort of take a 90 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,159 Speaker 2: step back and think, well, where are we As we 91 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 2: said before, Yeah, growth is still edging along, inflation's low 92 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 2: for the moment. There's a whole lot of policy prescriptions 93 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 2: going on. So this consolidation and just a bit of 94 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:32,480 Speaker 2: a time out and pause and reflect on what's going 95 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:33,720 Speaker 2: on might not be a bad thing. 96 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:35,559 Speaker 1: Stephen, enjoy your week. 97 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 2: Thank you, Jean. 98 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 1: As economist Stephen coculispit Anan as the Kook. You can 99 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 1: find him at the cook dot com and follow him 100 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 1: on excusing the handle the Kook. I'm Sean Eelmer, and 101 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 1: this is fear and greed the weak ahead.