WEBVTT - Can Donald Trump win from here?

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Tuesday, October twenty nine. Unions are using Labour's same Job,

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<v Speaker 1>same Pay laws to try to secure one hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>twenty eight million dollars in wage rises for labor higher

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<v Speaker 1>mind workers. It's a big test of the Albanese government's

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<v Speaker 1>signature reform. An investigation has begun into unproven allegations of

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<v Speaker 1>bullying and censorship at the top of the New South

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<v Speaker 1>Wales Prosecution Office following a public interest disclosure. Those exclusives

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<v Speaker 1>alive now at the Australian dot Com dot a U.

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<v Speaker 1>With just over a week to go until Americans cast

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<v Speaker 1>their votes for President, the Senate and the House of

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<v Speaker 1>Representatives on November five, Trump is closing in on Kamala

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<v Speaker 1>Harris's lead. Today we join our correspondent on the ground

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<v Speaker 1>at Trump's New York rally and ask can Trump really win?

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<v Speaker 2>From here?

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<v Speaker 1>Before we start, there are some rude and crude jokes

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<v Speaker 1>in this episode.

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<v Speaker 3>What a.

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump Rally opens with a song, Oh God, bless America.

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<v Speaker 1>And a prayer we thank you for blessing us all

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<v Speaker 1>to live in the United States of America. We thank

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<v Speaker 1>you for our founding fathers, who, by your guidance long

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<v Speaker 1>before the man himself takes the stage.

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<v Speaker 4>And I'd like to begin by asking a very simple question.

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<v Speaker 4>Are you better off now than you were four years ago?

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<v Speaker 4>I will end inflation, I will stop the invasion of

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<v Speaker 4>criminals coming into our country, and I will bring back

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<v Speaker 4>the American dream. We need the American dream.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden, the most

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<v Speaker 1>famous arena in the world.

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<v Speaker 4>Richer, safer, and nine days from now. It's hard working

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<v Speaker 4>patriots like you who are going to save our country.

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<v Speaker 4>Thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>Adam Crichton is the Australian's US correspondent and he's fresh

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<v Speaker 1>from the Trump rally at Madison Square Garden. Adam, what

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<v Speaker 1>is it that makes Donald Trump such a magnetic, unmissible

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<v Speaker 1>presence on stage?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, look, it's a very good question actually, because he

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<v Speaker 3>speaks for so long at these these events. I mean

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<v Speaker 3>tonight he spoke for over sixty minutes, and of course,

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<v Speaker 3>as someone who follows him, I've heard it all one

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<v Speaker 3>hundred times before. Although the stadium was packed in the

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<v Speaker 3>Madison Square Garden was that capacity twenty thousand people, which

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<v Speaker 3>is quite big. And people were leaving actually, like at

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<v Speaker 3>the start of his speech, which I thought was interesting

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<v Speaker 3>because I was talking to people on the way out

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<v Speaker 3>and they had buses and trains to cash. Because many

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<v Speaker 3>people had come from far, they were not locals. I

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<v Speaker 3>mean I spoke to one woman who'd flown all the

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<v Speaker 3>way from California just to go, and she'd camped out

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<v Speaker 3>the night before to get a good spot in the line.

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<v Speaker 5>But that's not an unusual story.

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<v Speaker 3>Actually, I don't know how to explain it, because he's

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<v Speaker 3>not classically a good speaker. He obviously has a very

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<v Speaker 3>distinctive style, but I think it really just goes to

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<v Speaker 3>the anger that so many Americans feel, and he channels

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<v Speaker 3>their rage and they support him.

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<v Speaker 5>The striking thing to me about today was just how

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<v Speaker 5>long it was.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean I got there at ten am to line up,

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<v Speaker 3>and there were already three or four thousand people in

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<v Speaker 3>the queue, and we didn't get into one, so I

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<v Speaker 3>was literally standing up for three.

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<v Speaker 5>Which was not particularly pleasant, I say. And then we go.

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<v Speaker 3>In and then we go into another hurting pen, and

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<v Speaker 3>then you get searched, obviously for guns and things, which

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<v Speaker 3>makes sense. And then it started at two thirty and

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<v Speaker 3>it went till about eight thirty, so it was like

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<v Speaker 3>six hours of speakers.

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<v Speaker 5>There's so much political rage in America.

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<v Speaker 3>There's anger about inflation, there's fury about the southern border.

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<v Speaker 3>And Trump is the politician that you support if you're.

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<v Speaker 5>Angry about those things. And you know, I don't think

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<v Speaker 5>it really matters how he speaks.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think it matters about his affairs, about his

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<v Speaker 3>legal cases. Clearly it doesn't because he's now currently the

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<v Speaker 3>favorite to win.

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<v Speaker 1>That vision of people leaving, that's something that Kamala Harris

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<v Speaker 1>go toed him with during the presidential debate quite successfully.

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<v Speaker 1>It seemed to me that when she raised that that

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<v Speaker 1>knocked Trump off his axis a little bit, and he

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<v Speaker 1>became very defensive and kind of lost his thread. So

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<v Speaker 1>what you're saying is it's true people are walking out,

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<v Speaker 1>but maybe not because they're bored.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 5>Look, I don't want to exaggerate the extent, but certainly

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<v Speaker 5>there were.

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<v Speaker 3>I was say, hundreds of people leaving kind of after

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<v Speaker 3>he started, and he was meant to speak at five,

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<v Speaker 3>and he started at seven forty, which is really late.

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<v Speaker 5>Really late. I mean that's two and a half hours late.

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<v Speaker 3>I imagine the average income in that stadium was lower than

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<v Speaker 3>the average income in New York because everyone I spoke

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<v Speaker 3>to was from a different state, mainly from New Jersey

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<v Speaker 3>the ones I spoke to, so they traveled a good

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<v Speaker 3>hour at least to get there, and they probably had

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<v Speaker 3>trains to get.

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<v Speaker 2>The first act was a comedian called Tony Hinchcliff.

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<v Speaker 6>Where are my proud Latinos at tonight?

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<v Speaker 2>What was the reaction of the crowd to those kind

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<v Speaker 2>of jokes?

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<v Speaker 5>I don't even want to say it. Almost Yes, it

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<v Speaker 5>was quite crude.

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<v Speaker 6>It's wild, and these are Latinos. They love making babies too.

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<v Speaker 6>Just know that they do.

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<v Speaker 4>They do.

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<v Speaker 6>There's no pulling out, they don't do that. They come inside,

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<v Speaker 6>just like they did to our country.

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<v Speaker 5>Wins actually.

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<v Speaker 6>Republicans of the Party with a good sense of humor.

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<v Speaker 3>It was pretty distasteful, and of course Democrats seized on

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<v Speaker 3>that straight away.

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<v Speaker 5>And the Puerto Rican joke was somewhat strange.

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<v Speaker 6>There's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle

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<v Speaker 6>of the ocean right now. Yeah, I think it's called

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<v Speaker 6>Puerto Rico.

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<v Speaker 3>And you know, maybe this is because I'm not part

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<v Speaker 3>of us cultural long enough, but you know, I don't

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<v Speaker 3>know what it is about Puerto Rico, but this guy

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<v Speaker 3>described it as a heap of trash.

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<v Speaker 5>I don't know why you.

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<v Speaker 3>Do that, because it's part of the US and there's

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<v Speaker 3>lots of Puerto Ricans in the US, and I don't

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<v Speaker 3>it was just somewhat gratuitous and unnecessary to make that joke.

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<v Speaker 3>But anyway, he did, and I saw numerous high profile

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<v Speaker 3>Democrats on social media saying, if the Dems don't do

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<v Speaker 3>a campaign ad on that joke, they're crazy.

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<v Speaker 5>I think the.

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<v Speaker 3>Republican strategist would have been pretty annoyed about that joke. So,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, for Trump, it was really an fu to

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<v Speaker 3>the establishment in New York.

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<v Speaker 5>And this, of course is the city that he grew

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<v Speaker 5>up in. He knows it very well.

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<v Speaker 3>And it's politically unusual to do a campaign rally in

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<v Speaker 3>a solid blue state so close to voting day, but

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<v Speaker 3>that's what Trump did.

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<v Speaker 5>And I have no doubt.

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<v Speaker 3>It was his decision because all the political people would

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<v Speaker 3>have been saying, why don't you go, and you know,

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<v Speaker 3>do this in a swing state. His media savvy is extraordinary,

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<v Speaker 3>and he knows that the fact he did it in

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<v Speaker 3>New York will be a major media story, and from

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<v Speaker 3>what I've been seeing in the last few hours, the

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<v Speaker 3>whole thing has completely dominated the newest media cycle, the

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<v Speaker 3>whole thing, but it's got far more attention than any

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<v Speaker 3>Harris rally has got in recent days. You know, despite

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<v Speaker 3>the fact she's had all these huge stars.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm Bruce Springsteen, and I am here today to support

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<v Speaker 4>Marla Harris and Tim Watz for President and Vice President

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<v Speaker 4>of the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>Speaking of Harris's rallies, I've been interested to see in

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<v Speaker 1>recent days that the caliber of stars who she's had

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<v Speaker 1>on stage with her, Bruce Springsteen the other day, Beyonce

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<v Speaker 1>more recently.

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<v Speaker 7>Let's do this, Ladies and gentlemen, please give a big,

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<v Speaker 7>loud Texas welcome to the next president of the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>It does make me wonder whether this is going to

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<v Speaker 1>help Kamala Harris or if it's going to make her

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<v Speaker 1>look more kind of elite and out of touch all

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<v Speaker 1>the things that Donald Trump would criticize about her. What's

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<v Speaker 1>your sense of that, Adam, Having lived in the States

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<v Speaker 1>now for a few years, do Americans love Beyonce so

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<v Speaker 1>much that they will change their vote potentially depending on

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<v Speaker 1>who Beyonce endorses.

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<v Speaker 5>No, look my view is that these don't help Haris.

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<v Speaker 3>There was a lot of anxiety amongst Republicans with a

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<v Speaker 3>Taylor Swift announcement when she endorsed Harris very publicly on Instagram,

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<v Speaker 3>but she got no bounce from that. These people are

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<v Speaker 3>very rich, like they are extraordinarily rich. I mean, I

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<v Speaker 3>think Swift and Beyonce are both big inet so the

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<v Speaker 3>ordinary American earning sixty thousand dollars a year or if that,

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<v Speaker 3>I think that they kind of resent those of endorsements.

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<v Speaker 5>That's my sense, and in fact there is also an

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<v Speaker 5>academic literature that says they don't help either.

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<v Speaker 3>The momentum now nine days out, it is definitely with Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>But if you look at all sources, whether it's polls

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<v Speaker 3>or betting markets or even the interesting one is the

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<v Speaker 3>share price of Trump's crappy immediate company, which has no revenue,

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<v Speaker 3>but in the past month it's tripled.

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<v Speaker 5>In price.

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<v Speaker 2>Coming up? So can we believe the polls? And is

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<v Speaker 2>Trump going to win?

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<v Speaker 8>As the end of the election cycle gets closer, the

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<v Speaker 8>focus of voters and campaigns shifts to the polls.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know about you, but I've given up taking

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<v Speaker 1>American political polls.

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<v Speaker 2>Seriously.

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<v Speaker 1>They were wrong in twenty sixteen when Trump first blindsided

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<v Speaker 1>the political establishment to win. They were wrong again in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty when nobody thought Joe Biden could dispatch him.

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<v Speaker 8>Multiple polling averages show a tightening of the race through

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<v Speaker 8>three weeks of October.

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<v Speaker 2>Real clear this campaign.

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<v Speaker 1>Kamala Harris had an early lead, but over the weekend

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<v Speaker 1>some polling indicated that lead was coming back to even

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<v Speaker 1>Nate Silver is an analyst you're shot to fame for

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<v Speaker 1>accurately predicting virtually every state's vote in the two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>and eight election that brought Barack Obama to power. He's

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<v Speaker 1>been right on numerous other occasions too. In twenty sixteen,

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<v Speaker 1>just like every other statistician, he didn't think Trump would win,

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<v Speaker 1>but he gave Trump a better chance than almost anyone else.

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<v Speaker 1>So I guess you could say he was less wrong

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<v Speaker 1>than the others. Be is she back then as now?

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<v Speaker 1>Is that you can only deal with what voters are

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<v Speaker 1>telling polsters, and in this case, Harris is trying to

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<v Speaker 1>win over women, including Republican women who've never voted for

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<v Speaker 1>a Democrat, and the Republicans are hoping men will come

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<v Speaker 1>out of the woodwork to vote for Trump. Those things

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<v Speaker 1>are hard to predict because the decisions people might make

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<v Speaker 1>on the drive to the voting booth, or they might

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<v Speaker 1>decide to switch at the last minute or not vote

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<v Speaker 1>at all. Early on Tuesday morning, Silver had Harris at

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<v Speaker 1>forty eight point six percent, just in front of Trump

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<v Speaker 1>at forty seven point four percent. That's a nearly two

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<v Speaker 1>percentage point improvement for the Republicans in the past month.

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<v Speaker 1>I leaned on Adam taking advantage of the fact he

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<v Speaker 1>was exhausted after his big day at the rally to

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<v Speaker 1>make a prediction for us.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, at this stage, I'd have to say Trump

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<v Speaker 3>is going to win. But what I struggle with is

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<v Speaker 3>just that if he wins, it's the most incredible political comeback.

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<v Speaker 5>In world history.

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<v Speaker 3>I would say, I don't think that's an exaggeration, and

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<v Speaker 3>I can't imagine it almost because he's just got so

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<v Speaker 3>much baggage. He's so hatent by a large minority of

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<v Speaker 3>the American population, and it is unfathomable. I mean, you

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<v Speaker 3>think back two years ago when he launched his campaign.

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<v Speaker 3>Everyone derided him, including that as it has been as

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<v Speaker 3>a problem as someone the Republicans need to get rid

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<v Speaker 3>of and he's proved everyone wrong. There's something about him.

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<v Speaker 3>He has the X factor. So if you're forcing me

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<v Speaker 3>to prepict I would say.

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<v Speaker 5>Trump will win.

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<v Speaker 3>But there's still nine days to go and it could

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<v Speaker 3>get very rough and aggressive the next few days.

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